Beyond the Cusp

September 15, 2016

Israel Signing Defense Industry Away to America

 

Israel is signing a new defense funding authorization crafted by President Obama and his administration. The carrot was an amount of additional funding. The sticks way outweigh the carrots in our opinions. First is the deal will remove Israeli ability to spend approximately a quarter of the funds domestically with Israeli companies. Instead, in a rapid change all funds must be spent with United States defense companies. Already due to budget constraints Elbit and other Israeli defense companies have opened America branches in order to work with American companies. These Israeli branch companies operate as if they were purely American in all financing and hire virtually all United States citizens to work in their offices. This will likely lead to a further if not complete migration of Israeli defense industries, especially research and development, moving to the now greener pastures in the United States as this deal will suffocate Israeli operations. The claim is this is the most advantageous deal possible and waiting for the next administration and hoping for the best from the American elections, whatever might be argued is best, was a risk not worth taking as the deal was amply generous and neither new President would be pressed to begin by giving Israel an increase in funding right off the bat. That is a valid argument and there are plenty of other reasons in favor of taking this deal despite that it also will include a condition where Israel agrees not to request any further funding unless in a war footing. One might wish to know who defines if Israel is fighting a war as in this age few wars are declared, they are simply fought such as the one which will last decades longer in Syria with an ever widening number of disparate forces engaging in a free-for-all. Would another Gaza war qualify or would Israel have to be invaded with a formal declaration of war announced in the United Nations be required? One rumor before we state our arguments; there are claims that Israel aid will also be at the behest and control of the White House with no ability for Congress to alter the details and stipulation of the deal as it will be signed.

 

There was another path which would have had far reaching effects leading to a greater respect from the average America and a greater standing in the world. Israel could have simply said thank you President Obama for this very generous offer but Israel has developed economically and technologically and because of these improvements and developments and believe that the United States and Israel would benefit from Israel paying their own path forward and the United States could save these billions of dollars and return them to the American taxpayers or pay down the debt or use them to lower the costs to the people with their healthcare or in any number of ways and Israel could benefit from the technologies we will develop from pursuing our own defense research and developments. By paying their own way in Israel they would still be open to purchasing United States aircraft or other weapon systems from the actual companies and possibly request assistance from the United States government seeking whether or not such would be available or simply request the companies to seek such backing for allowing any discounts. Even better would be Israel developing their own technology which is something they are more than adequately capable. Israeli scientists, programmers, mathematicians and engineers might even make discoveries which they could share under mutually favorable conditions with United States defense and other industries leading to developing new weapons systems or improving existing systems thus leading to improved defensive capabilities for both nations. The advantages to Israel seeking their own paths forward would have so many upsides making such absolutely breathtaking.

 

For Israel it would make a swift stop to much of the so-called brain drain of tech and science graduates from Israeli colleges and universities to the United States and Europe as there would be ample additional opportunities and some of the most exciting leading edge advances to be made and rewards and Nobel Prizes that these students would find Israel far more inviting than overseas. Israel would benefit from weapons’ sales internationally and United States permission would no longer be required as the developed technologies would be Israeli paid for by Israeli funds and owned by the Israeli companies or the government under more sensitive agreements with the developing companies where Israeli defense secrets were involved. The entire funding boondoggle, which is what this funding proffer can only be described as, began, as we have pointed out uncounted times, began to prevent the Israeli aerospace industries from developing and producing the Lavi fighter jet which would have directly competed with and surpassed the abilities of the United States F-16 fighter jet causing the United States distress.

 

After the Israeli success in the Six Day War the administration of President Lyndon Baines Johnson decided Israel was worth a look and when adding in the potential success the Lavi might grab against the F-16 it was decided to bribe the Israelis with a sweetheart deal and a “solemn promise.” The deal was F-16s at a reduced price plus F-15s at a similarly reduced price and a promise of air and weapons superiority over the Arab nations into perpetuity. President Obama long ago sacrificed on the altar of “fundamental transformation” the “solemn promise” of air superiority and specially arms superiority and even may have turned hostile aiding Israel’s existential enemy, Iran, to become a nuclear armed nation in a single decade with the blessings of the United States and the remainder of nations holding permanent seats on the Security Council plus Germany and the European Union thus threatening Israel with Armageddon. The seemingly apparent betrayal of traditional United States allies including Israel by the Obama administration should have spelled out a dramatic warning that Israeli leadership should have taken to heart and turned to her own weapons and defense industry as the sole trustable source for providing Israel with a trusted and advanced military capabilities for the future.

 

Finally, the F-35 JSF (Joint Strike Fighter) was designed initially to provide a single airframe which could be easily adapted for use by the Air Force (traditional airframe), Navy (reinforced landing gear and frame for carrier landings and take-off) and Marines with VTOL (vertical take-off and landing) with minimal adjustments in order to reduce overall costs. This would have been wonderful for the United States if it had worked out; it didn’t. Instead the similarities between the three aircraft turned out to be simply cosmetic as the differences were sufficient that the three aircraft still required three separate production lines thus resulting in three separately built aircrafts for all intents and purposes unless you are Lockheed Martin, the producing company for all three versions of the F-35 JSF. The problem is none of these versions of the F-35 JSF were designed specifically for Israel which when you are spending over half of a billion dollars per aircraft one might actually want the aircraft tailored to your specific needs.

 

Lavi, F-15I Strike Eagle F-16 Fighting Falcon, F-35 JSF

Lavi, F-15I Strike Eagle
F-16 Fighting Falcon, F-35 JSF

 

Of course should Israel really wish to demand that Lockheed Martin design and manufacture a specific F-35 JSF-I specifically for Israel, we believe such would be possible providing Israel would be prepared to spend over another half of a billion dollars for that pleasure. All figured, the question would be whether Israel might not have been better served to have developed their own fifth generation fighter aircraft and this becomes even more applicable when one figures that the United States F-35 JSF may not be battle ready until half way through the next decade. While Israel will be waiting for the F-35 JSF to have all its little wrinkles and software glitches and small black holes, code wise, all of which must be ironed smooth before the aircraft will be truly battle ready, the Russian and Chinese top aircraft are ready now and compete well if not better than the F-15 and F-16 Israel is equipped with and are ready currently or within a few short years.

 

While Israel waits for the perfected F-35 JSF Iran will be taking some of the now rapidly approaching three billion dollars or more and investing it in the purchase of some of these fine aircraft in sufficient numbers to place Israel’s air force in a heavily challenged position by comparison and providing ample protection for all of the Iranian nuclear mischief and other less savory activities. Had Israel planned ahead when things became obvious that depending upon the United States for their security going into the future and fallen back on their own abilities even as late as President Obama’s reelection, they could already have four years of development of their next generation airframe and avionics close to development and ready for implementation and also increased the opportunities in their technological and aeronautics industries and other developments in related fields. Perhaps instead of signing this agreement Israel should tear up the agreement and cancel their orders for the seemingly stillborn F-35 JSF and staked out on their own into a more promising future. That would have been our advice, but then we often disagree with the General Staff on so many things.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 10, 2016

The Usual Defense Aid Message Couching the Big Lie

 

Once more the time is upon the Israeli political and military leadership to figure the most beneficial path forward and what role they wish for the presumed eternal friendship and joining at the hip of the United States and Israel. At the top of the discussion is that connection at the hip which is a three-billion dollar military aid package which needs reviewing. Rumored in the deal presented by President Obama is the demand that the twenty-six percent of those funds permitted to be used by Israel domestically be phased out and that all aid be approved by the President before being shipped even during times of duress such as in a conflict with Hamas, Hezballah or other entity, not exactly an unusual enough occurrence. The difficulty this could present was driven home when President Obama using the State Department held up the scheduled resupply of Hellfire missiles during the 2014 Hamas conflict forcing a rethinking of plans to operate without that strategically vital and important weapons system. Many are looking at the plan and seeing it as a poison pill which Israel should refuse to swallow while others point to the fact that Israel, until President Obama, had almost never had any difficulties and they claim that the American people or Congress could mediate any difficulties despite the wording of the new arms aid proposal that Congress must have no recourse, council or affect upon any decision made by the President and their administration in such military matters concerning Israel. This places an irreversible veto to all military aid in the hands of a single person, the President of the United States, and contrary to seeming popular memory, this was not the first time that an American administration attempted to change the course of a war when the Nixon administration under the advice of Secretary of State Kissinger delayed resupply to Israel during the Yom Kippur War where it was rumored that the missile silos were opened to persuade the Americans that Israel desperately needed the weapons to avoid an escalation neither side desired. That is rumored to have been a very persuasive argument and the arms were released. That led to some of the arms set aside for Israel to be stored in Israel such that Israel never face that predicament again, but obviously that arms cache cannot hold every type and number which may become required or there would be no need for negotiations on a new deal.

 

F35 JSF

F35 JSF

 

There is a second side to the deal which has developed some serious problems and newly found difficulties, the F35 JSF aircraft. The persisting software problems which are delaying delivery to United States frontline air units, the overheating of an aircraft whose electronics are currently cooled by opening all the weapons bays for one minute every ten to fifteen minutes as necessary which compromises every stealth design of the airframe giving enemy radars a fully obvious aircraft for prolonged times otherwise the electronics start to fail, other stealth problems which were unanticipated in the computer modeling (there is something to say for clay and full-scale modeling and test chambers over computer theories), and the necessity to download all information after each flight, the uploading via military network of flight plans before each mission, the ability of the United States to ground all F35 JSF including those given Israel or just the Israeli aircraft, the ability to take charge of the plane mid mission under certain limitations and a plethora of problems some of which will likely not be known until it is too late which makes this aircraft too reliant on American assistance and goodwill to use as the primary fighter in the IAF. Some of these shortcomings have been covered by Caroline Glick and others in their recent articles as well.

 

Apart from our hopes that the delays and other difficulties cause Israel to never take delivery beyond their initial flight of F35 JSF fighters, the truth is this aircraft fails all standards of measure due to the facts that the aircraft is undeployable as configured, lacks independent missioning of the aircraft free of United States approval, impossible strictly dependent repair as the only method for troubleshooting of the system software and other electronics is by using diagnostics kept within computers in the United States via “secure” downloads and upload of repairs and updates (think Obamacare software or early versions of Windows), and a host of other problems of accepting and basing your nation’s air capabilities on an aircraft not ready for prime time or even airshows without numerous upgrades and some probable system rebuilds which would require returning the fleet to the United States in too many situations. Then there are the negotiations for a new defense treaty which holds a number of points which are equally, some even more so, troubling with the cancellation of the funds available for Israel use at home being just an average of the problems being demanded by the Obama White House. Some even work to the detriment of the United States as well, but even that sacrifice is nothing when one is working to cripple Israeli future defense capabilities independent from White House whims of the moment. Dropping the Israelis ability to use around quarter of the funding on Israeli military spending which will slow both nation’s research in vital areas as the Americans, due to the assistance received from Israeli research in areas such as drones and anti-missile research and development, are dependent on Israeli research to direct their developments in these areas. But this is all about forcing Israeli military research and ability to be strangled making them further dependent upon the United States for any and all advanced weapons systems and greater dependence upon American weapons systems thus placing Israeli defense under control from the White House and, unfortunately, also the State Department.

 

So, if this is looking like such a stifling deal for the Israelis, then why is there even the slightest consideration given this deal instead of just walking away until the deal returns to something more beneficial for Israel or otherwise prepares to go their own way. The reason for the United States to like this deal are obvious as they would receive all the aid money remaining in the United States spent to strengthen their military and related industries. Further, any surviving Israel research and development would mostly be reliant on United States direct funding, control and benefit from all advances while Israel would be denied similar developments from integration of such discoveries as they will likely no longer be a part of the development team. With time the Israeli defense industries will suffer atrophied funding with many eventually being absorbed by their American counterparts. This in and of itself should make the entire deal a nonstarter. Still, the Israelis are attempting to find the right lipstick which they can put on this pig and make it presentable to the Knesset, the Israel Defense Force (IDF) and the Israeli public.

 

Still, the political class and some in higher IDF circles are actually going through makeup kits seeking to find the exact shade of lipstick as to sell this deal claiming waiting until the new President is sworn in and then reach a better deal as there are no guarantees on who the new President will turn out to be or their actual feelings regarding Israel. They claim that despite the obvious problems, this treaty can be worked under and improved with time which should allay any Israeli fears. They try to sell this agreement using fear melded with claims that the deal is not as bad as being reported. The real reason that so many top military personnel and politicians are so willing to take this deal is their fear of not possessing the F35 JSF, the aircraft for the next fifty years for the Israeli Air Force. They claim there should be no worries over any early on difficulties as fixes will be forthcoming. We are less optimistic and believe the F35 will be full of difficulties finally seeing limited use in the United States. The deal’s future demands it be completely accepted as is and cannot be altered by Israel, Congress or even a future President. With these clauses the entire deal becomes a poison pill.

 

The reason any deal has these supporters within the government and the military, especially fairly high up, is these people seek an external source upon which any refusal of action or other distasteful or unacceptable decision could now be passed along and blamed on matters at levels the people are unaware of and pressing interests of an essential ally were involved in the decision. So any deal is a reusable ‘get out of the dog house’ card with which all unpopularity is due to agreements and pressures and such are beyond their control and the people will need to just understand and the media will drop the issue as the fix is in. Yes, obviously there may be such pressures, but that is simply another reason not to accept any deal, contract or treaty in which Israel surrenders her free ability to act to another nations or, as in this case, any foreign individual thus compromising Israel’s ability to act when Israel deems the necessity and not when it is convenient for some foreign head of state whose people are not generally hurt or otherwise compromised by Israeli inaction. Israelis have seen sufficient friends, relatives and even family die after checkpoints were removed to satisfy an unsatisfiable, unfeeling foreign leader whose only problem is Israel and her defense or loss of lives is not their number one problem, the fact Israel exists has become that problem. Such power must not be surrendered unto any foreign decider, especially a position whose track record has been, when it came to Israel and the peace process, to demand from Israel every surrender, sacrifice, concession and other acts of denial or risks taken while ignoring even the broken agreements, treaties and promises from Israel’s enemies simply because, as Israelis too often hear, we are the civil partner of the United States and as such more is demanded from Israel. Perhaps the Israelis would be best served by refusing any deal and manufacturing and designing Israeli first equipment as this would bring building all Israeli defense and military capability home and employ Israeli engineers and manufacturers within our borders and then if the Israeli government were to buy American armaments we can do so as an equal nation and not one dependent on the good will of any foreign power. The Israeli economic benefit from producing our own defense equipment and servicing Israeli designed, built, and software developed domestically would offset any loss of foreign funds. Such systems desired from the United States or any other provider would now be made as an equal and not as the beggar using daddy’s money with limitations which must be accepted as a beggar depends on the alms giver. As an equal, Israel will not be dependent on any foreign power for upgrades and installation of codes or flight permissions even to fly training exercises as now exists. One need wonder why only Israel is kept on such a short leash while other receptors remain independent and do not need sign away sovereignty just for a few pieces of copper. Perhaps Israel needs not the alms which indebts Israel to any foreign influence leaving Israel compromised. Perhaps Israel need rely more on Israel.

 

Complete freedom to make all Israeli decisions free and unfettered by foreign influences is easily worth every Agora, even three-billion dollars’ worth because Israel must no longer be dependent on others and be constantly looking over their shoulders every step of the way in almost every matter to see if their minder was pleased or distressed after every decision or speech or anything when it comes to Israeli security or military actions. No nation should continue to permit such compromise in their freedoms and decisions as allowing for such control makes one a vassal state and no longer a free nation. The funds received need be put in perspective. They are approximately equal to one percent, that’s 1% of Israeli GDP and as such not an impossible asset which need be bought at such cost. Israel will gain far more international respect and support even at the United Nations if every leader understood that Israel is not and will not be dependent upon any foreign entanglement or restriction in her actions and will act according to the will of the Israeli public in all things concerning sovereignty including militarily. Such independence and freedom to act will more than repay the aid monies from the United States and if such aid becomes direly necessary, then Israel will rely on the good will of the American people and their representatives in their Congress to answer any plea. Israel must refuse to any longer play the beggar in any international forum or venue, even if it means going forward completely alone as Israel had done in the past. That was when Israel received the respect she deserved and Israel desperately needs to regain her freedom to act in her own interest and no other and then wait for the anticipated respect leading to the support of true friends and allies with which Israel will interact without needing ask any foreigner for permission to act in the best interests of the Israeli people. That road should beacon so loudly as to overshadow the cacophonic noises demanding Israeli restraint when it comes to her defense and actions. Imagine how Abbas would tread knowing that the State Department in Washington D.C. no longer had any veto power over Israel to restrict or otherwise mitigate any Israeli actions concerning the Arabs and their incitement to terror and other acts disrespecting Israel leaning on the staff of the State Department and the Secretary of State who would always have Mahmoud Abbas and company’s back. That too has been a steep price which Israel had paid over the last twenty to thirty years and enough is enough with the selling of Israeli independence upon Israel without being dictated to on what Israel is allowed to do and where Israel must only tread with great trepidations of disappointing anybody who holds the President’s ear. Avoiding such entanglements is also a distinct and necessary component of ‘Never Again’ as it were these very same actors who refused Jews any route to safety and would do so again should the prospect once again present itself. When your numbers are but 0.02% of the world’s population, then you hold exactly zero influence in the world except if you have a homeland and then you can act like an equal on the stage of world affairs. As for the dependency of other’s approval we say, “Never Again!”

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 13, 2016

What Israel Must Learn from President Obama

 

Lord Palmerston is reputed to have stated that, “Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.” The truth is so rarely touched upon between politicians and especially leaders of nations. All too often two nations bond over a perceived mutual threat, real or imagined, as there be little difference in the end, and this arrangement continues for sufficient amount of time for many Prime Ministers, Presidents or even monarchs to pass through under the calm of the arrangement. Eventually the day comes when either their mutually perceived enemy is vanquished or under new leaders who alleviate any threat perceived or actual and the two presumed friends no longer have that binding fear. This allows for future minor annoyances to rise to some critical moment or prove to be a permanent wedge between the leaders over time eventually having one side or both deciding to end their “special relationship” and go their separate ways. All too often this kind of relationship has a senior and a junior party under which the senior party having greater resources had wooed the other with promises of weapons systems, troops, nuclear umbrella or other aid upon which the junior party becomes reliant. When they part quickly due to a radical change in leadership and views of the populace on the side of the senior partner, the dependent partner may find themselves without the necessary military or political insurance which they had grown dependent upon. This is even more true today with single weapons systems such as submarines, aircraft, naval vessels and other military necessities. This is the lesson the former strong and dependent allies of the United States need to take away from the Obama Presidency if nothing else. President Obama proved the United States to be less than trustworthy particularly for her former friends in the Middle East and especially to those who had attached their militaries to use and interface with the United States military equipment.

 

 

Lord Palmerston: Nicknamed "The Mongoose" Statesman, Twice Prime Minister, Politician began career as a Tory changing to Whig in 1830 and ending his career as the first Prime Minister of the newly-formed Liberal Party from 1859)

Lord Palmerston: Nicknamed “The Mongoose”
Statesman, Twice Prime Minister, Politician
began career as a Tory changing to Whig in 1830
and ending his career as the first Prime Minister
of the newly-formed Liberal Party from 1859)

 

 

This, it turns out, is particularly true for any nation which plans on integrating the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Jet as their staple fighter/bomber in the future. This was well described by Caroline B. Glick in her article The IAF’s Achilles’ heel. What Ms. Glick described was the dependency of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the aircraft Israel has based their future air superiority upon, has a serious compromising systems requirement in that it is required by its design and software to be constantly interfaced and updated before and after every flight via the internet with United States command and control systems which then decided whether the aircraft may safely continue in service. The implications of this are enormous but can be made so simple a child could grasp the problem. The United States can ground any particular craft or an entire fleet of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters which would simply make them so much extremely expensive aluminum scrap metal. One has to wonder whether there exists a kill code which could take each aircraft out of the air mid-flight leaving the pilot with, hopefully, a still functioning ejection system so he too had not just been shut down, or shot down as there is little difference. Caroline Glick also implied that many of the United States next generation anti-missile and other advanced systems have a similar ask before use interfaces giving the United States actual veto over even self-defensive systems which would be traumatic and very vital thing to know before deploying any United States weapons systems. What is interesting is the choice of referring to the F-35 as the “IAF’s Achilles’ heel” by Caroline Glick as we used that same terminology, “Achilles Heel of the IDF” in our December 22, 2013 article Time for Israel to Diversify her Relations in the World particularly referencing the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter specifically and all other armaments as well. We proposed Israel seriously relent on purchasing any future weapons systems and instead develop our own technology and weapons systems as I was as sure then as I remain today that Israeli designed and built weapons system would become the standard bearer in every industry.

 

That was why we referred to “the Merkava Main Battle Tanks are a blessing in so many ways as it is a fully capable modern main battle tank comparable to any other currently fielded or in production and the older models have been repurposed as personnel carriers and armored field ambulances thus providing systems necessary for the type of warfare Israel may face and supplying superior defenses when compared to other systems used by other nations, especially the armored field ambulances.” Even earlier, November 22, 2010, we had a short article, Israeli Best Hope for Air and Military Superiority, sometimes the best articles are short ones, where we advised Israel develop her future air force to be drones rather than piloted aircraft as using drones flown from stationary simulators or active but relaxed simulators which gave some referential feedback as to direction turned but not equal G-force as a drone can make a fifty-G turn while a piloted craft would render its pilot unconscious before fifteen-G and dead at fifty-G. As might be readily obvious, we saw the problem but so have many military advisors and a few rare gems of the political class. Just for argument’s sake, we would like to wager that people who saw this dependency thing as a problem would also believe in simply annexing the lands of Judea and Samaria and inviting the hard core members of the terror groups which includes the security forces of the Palestinian Authority to kindly take their troubles elsewhere. But the problem right before us is this new attached United States oversight which has the power to cripple any and all systems of any nation so blinded by low cost defensive weapons would face should make any nation shudder, let alone one as dependent on its military for its survival as Israel. If the United States is insisting on training operational readiness and through such systems riding shotgun on every mission including actually holding the keys to the kingdom in their hands by being able to, by a few key-strokes, turn off the majority and the best of the Israeli Air Defense is completely unacceptable. We should press IAI and RAFAEL to immediately start using the airframe of the Lavi fighter which was what started the United States air dependency as the United States saw the Lavi as a direct and worthy fighter aircraft system which they preferred not to face as a competitor in the sales to the world so they initiated a sweetheart deal of F-16s and F-15s and the guarantee that Israel could depend on the United States for all future fighter aircraft. Could we now? Not with the strings which the F-35 apparently carries with it.

 

Even if the F-35 JSF did not provide the United States with basically mission review before the aircraft could take flight as the F-35 JSF requires programmed specifics for each flight to optimize its systems or who knows what else without access to the code to decipher, and there is no manner to gain the code, the fact that it needs to transmit over the Internet to United States servicing systems is a real problem. Let’s take a look at an actual sortie flown over Syria a while back. The Israeli intelligence informed Washington that the Syrians were building a nuclear plant which was almost an exact copy of a North Korean nuclear weapons plant and the United States basic reply was not to be so paranoid and there was no way such could take place without the United States knowing about it. Israel gave them the exact position and even sent them pictures of the two sites and still the United States, particularly the state Department dismissed the allegations out of hand. Israel, over United States directives against and great threats should Israel continue in such a brutal and aggressive manner, sent squadrons of aircraft while shutting down the necessary Syrian air defense systems and radars and bombed the plant out of existence. It was after IAEA inspections that it became evident that the system actually was a nuclear facility and that it had a drawing of its water from over a mile distant just as Israel had described when the United States held that no such plant could be built that far from the closest water supply. So, now that ISIS would have gained control of the nuclear facility that the world should be ever so grateful that Israel removed what would have been an existential threat from over the world’s head. One little set of unusual events followed the removal of the Syrian reactor complex, complete and total silence from the Syrians and a complaint to the United Nations, likely the IAEA, over their loss of five nuclear scientists attending a summit in Syria.

 

 

 Syrian Reactor Chamber and Support Structures at Nuclear Processing Plant for Nuclear Weapons Being Overseen by North Korean Nuclear Scientists Before and After Bombing

Syrian Reactor Chamber and Support Structures
at Nuclear Processing Plant for Nuclear Weapons
Being Overseen by North Korean Nuclear Scientists
Before and After Bombing

 

 

Imagine the results if the Israeli Air Force F-15s and F-16s had been equipped with systems which were required to give their flight plans and mission intents to the United States CENTCOM at the Pentagon and over at Foggy Bottom and the State Department. It would have been a race between the Pentagon, State Department and CIA to see who would get the privilege of hitting the kill switch and turning off the entire Israeli Air Force. With such oversight the Iraqis would have kept their nuclear plant and had nuclear weapons by the time of Operation Desert Shield (August 2, 1990 – January 17, 1991) and Operation Desert Storm (January 17, 1991 – February 28, 1991) and these would have proven impossible as Saddam Hussein not only would have threatened and actually, at the first strike by the United States, would have nuked Tel Aviv, Israel and the Saudi Arabian oil fields and the Capital of Riyadh plus every last palatial domicile of the Saudi Arabian Royal Family and whatever else Saddam Hussein decided was involved with any assault on his sovereign nation. Imagine the Syrian Civil War with Bashir al-Assad and the Iranians with nuclear weapons. Imagine any conflict in the Middle East with one or both sides equipped with nuclear weapons and your view of the entire world changes. Guess what, that will soon become a reality and when that time comes, Israel cannot be reliant on Washington’s providing approval and also not warning the recipient of any Israeli airstrike. Iran would have had nothing to fear as first off they would have been nuked back to the age before Mohamad as soon as Saddam Hussein had decided the Iran-Iraq War was too costly and he was not winning, which would have been very early in what resulted ultimately in a decade long struggle. The world would be very different with Sadden Hussein ruling over the lands which we include today as Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, The Gulf Coast States, Yemen, and virtually anything other than Israel. Israel would have likely been forced to solidify her borders which would have included all of Judea and Samaria and there would have been no Palestinian Authority and almost everything across the Middle East would have been different if Saddam Hussein had developed nuclear weapons in the mid-1980s. Can the world really survive a Middle East where Israeli wings can be easily and readily clipped by whoever in Washington is second guessing them on that day? We doubt it and doubt it very seriously.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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