Beyond the Cusp

November 15, 2017

Could United States Forces Prevent North Korean Attack?

 

Lieutenant General (ret.) Jan-Marc Jouas wrote in a leaked letter to members of the US Congress, US troops “are vastly outnumbered by North Korean forces, as well as (South Korean) forces that will conduct the overwhelming majority of the fighting.” General Jouas adds, “Unlike every conflict since the last Korean War, we will not be able to build up our forces prior to the start of hostilities.” May we add that in our opinion, the general is a flaming optimist. There is anywhere, depending on the assessed threat levels, between thirty-five thousand and fifty thousand United States Army forces on the line at any given time backed up by what is considered a significant number of South Korean forces. They are backed up by air power and artillery stationed in South Korea as well as air-power from Guam, the Philippines, Hawaii, Japan and the naval forces from United States Seventh Fleet (Seventh Fleet Battle Group pictured below).

 

United States Seventh Fleet Battle Group

United States Seventh Fleet Battle Group

 

The following is our own assessment of the situation for the United States forces stationed in South Korea and their civilian employees and the rest of the population of South Korea. They are all toast should North Korea decide to initiate a war. The initial threat would be the launching of rockets and firing of artillery which might include chemical weapon rounds and would lay waste to much of the northern sections of Seoul. The initial firings and launchings could be utilized to a devastating effect on the entire length of the DMZ emplacements which defend South Korea and are often referred to as the first line of defense. The name we gave these soldiers was the trip wire which would notify command that everything they prayed would never happen, was in fact happening. These troops were never designed to prevent North Korean troops from invading South Korea, they were placed there such that the United States would have an excuse to reengage in the actual longest running war in which the United States has ever been engaged. The Korean War never ended, it only was suspended with the signing of an armistice which is merely a cease-fire. Every time even a single bullet crosses the DMZ, even an accidental discharge, the armistice is technically broken and the other side could reengage in hostilities while blaming the other side for actually initiating the renewed war. Other than the troops “guarding” the DMZ, the population of Seoul would be the other major group of victims as North Korea has made everything clear that they would intentionally target all of Seoul murdering civilians. This is their intentions despite North Korea being a signatory to the Geneva Convention Protocols.

 

Known North Korea Artillery Sites with Range of Fire

Known North Korea Artillery Sites with Range of Fire

 

In the end, the resulting carnage would be something the Korean Peninsula would find recoverable but requiring decades if not centuries. North Korea would likely face destruction on a scale previously thought unimaginable should this occur while President Trump is in office as it is doubtful Secretary of Defense James Mattis, a retired Marine four star General as well as Commander of United States Central Command, Commander of the United States Joint Forces Command, Supreme Allied Commander Transformation and whose dress blues are decorated with an impressive amount of salad, would even wait for President Trump to order an attack before readying all the forces which could conceivably engage North Korea to prepare to act immediately when given the go command. He did not earn the nickname “Mad Dog” for a passive demeanor, so one would expect him to be ready for any threat. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson may try to be a voice of reasoned response and advise caution, which we would not be surprised to hear, but between Secretary of Defense James Mattis, White House Chief of Staff and John F. Kelly, also a four star Marine General, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph F. Dunford, another four star Marine General and active as well, and if three retired Marine Four Star Generals were not sufficient to convince President Trump to overreact immediately, there would likely be one more voice demanding action, United States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley. One might almost feel sorry for Secretary of State Rex Tillerson trying to make himself heard as the voice of reason calling for some degree of hesitation to try to end the confrontation without resorting to escalating the situation. Then again, we are prejudging that Secretary of State Tillerson would not also be in favor of making South Korea into an island off the coast of China.

 

The truth is that should Kim Jong Un actually desire uniting the Korean Peninsula knowing that the United States is tied by treaty and United Nations edict to come to the defense of South Korea should they be attacked by North Korea, Kim Jong Un would be more likely to act first on his threats against the United States as well as President Trump. This could be accomplished in any of a number of means. The most obvious is the expected firing of ICBMs at the major cities of the United States. There has been discussion of the southern vulnerability to orbital missile attack which the United States faces. This exists as the United States defenses were all designed in addressing an attack from the Soviet Union. North Korea is a new threat and was given access to the Soviet Union southern attack plans which they developed back in the 1980’s in order to address a means of avoiding the United States defenses. North Korea has already launched satellites which would have been capable of using just such an approach in the past. But this attack plan has given way to something more realistic, so keep reading.

 

North Korea has tested six nuclear weapons in the recent past. The last two were reportedly thermonuclear weapons, in the vernacular, hydrogen bombs. Most of their weapons have had much lower yields than what most expected such weapons to produce. There is but one rational explanation for this result. These weapons are intended for a specific purpose, to produce the maximum EMP which, for reasons which nuclear expert scientists can ably explain, are a special orientation which while producing the maximum EMP yield and also a rather dirty bomb with high but very short lived radiation, produce lower than expected explosive yields. In other words, they give less pop but more pizzazz than the normative thermonuclear device of old which was designed to destroy a city. These devices are called Super EMP devices which are the result of a concerted effort between the Soviet Union and China and provided to North Korea by their ever-caring provider, China. Yes, the same China which now claims to have lost their leash and declared Kim Jong Un to be outside their control. Of course that is simply only partly true as China and her trade and support financially of North Korea is responsible for most of the economy.

 

The threat such a weapon poses were it to be exploded high in the atmosphere over the central United States is potentially devastating. Such a detonation could conceivably destroy the majority of the North American electrical grid plunging all but the east and west coasts into blackout as the transformers would be overloaded and rendered inoperable. Estimates are that it could take as long as a decade to completely repair the damage. The worse case scenario would have well over three-quarters of the population of the United States perishing in the first year alone and also rendering the United States vulnerable to invasion. There would also be problems for central Canada though northern Canada and her coasts would be unaffected. The dire consequences of such an EMP device is well defined by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry as well as debunking the detractors who claim otherwise. Needless to point out, the United States vulnerability to such a devastating attack should be of far more importance than it has received to date. As pointed out by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, “For 17 years the EMP Commission warned, in the words of the 2004 EMP Commission Executive Report: “The current vulnerability of U.S. critical infrastructures can both invite and reward attack if not corrected; however, correction is feasible and well within the Nation’s means and resources to accomplish.”

 

The truth is that the Congress and President were first briefed by the military upon their surprise discovery of the dangers of EMP after their own nuclear tests having knocked out electrical devices at a distant base after a nuclear above ground test in the Pacific theater. This was back in the 1950’s when adapting the electrical grid would have been far simpler and almost inexpensive by even the standards of the day. The electronic grid could be modernized and protected from an EMP device and implemented in 3-5 years at a cost of $10-20 billion. The complication is that every year the price will rise and the time required would also grow. Such an upgrade could include other upgrades making the grid intelligent which would lead to lower maintenance costs as well as numerous other advantages. But as nobody in Congress can place their name on an upgrade, the funding will go into items which often are unnecessary but are new constructions which Senators or Representatives can place their name on a sign taking credit. When someone becomes the first to place a sign taking credit for an upgrade, such as this resurfacing brought to you care of Senator Blah, perhaps upgrading on substations could begin. Until such a time or when the people find out the truth of the EMP vulnerability of the United States and entire North American electrical grids, then perhaps the required and necessary upgrades will be considered. What would it take to get these upgrades done, probably a miracle from Heaven. Still, the North Korean madman, Kim Jong Un, is most likely to attack the United States before attempting to unify the Korean Peninsula and such an attack would take the form of an EMP attack. As far as the United States preventing such an attack, that might take a miracle where just the right balance between bluster and pressure on China to pressure North Korea. There will always be those claiming that pressure should come from the United Nations Security Council sanctions where approximately seven sets of sanctions passed already have had absolutely minimal effect. This could be something which can be done with no desired result just to say it was tried, but some point of strength and threat need be put in place always leaving that small amount of doubt in Kim Jong Un’s mind just to keep him balanced, unbalanced is his normal condition.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

September 5, 2017

North Korea and a Time for War

 

United States Secretary of Defense James Mattis stated flatly that North Korea’s threats and actions were unacceptable and threatening the peace of the world. Secretary Mattis warned Kim Jong-un that North Korea would suffer a “massive military response” (video shown later in the article) should they attack the United States, her allies or protectorates. He stared further, “Any threat to the United States or its territories including Guam or our allies will be met with a massive military response.” Also, “Kim Jong-un should take heed the United Nations Security Council’s unified voice. All members unanimously agreed on the threat North Korea poses. And they remain unanimous in their commitment to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Because we are not looking to the total annihilation of a country, namely, North Korea.” Secretary Mathis added “many military options” are available to the United States and President Donald Trump insisted on being briefed on all of them.

 

Trump Kim Showdown at Guam

Trump Kim Showdown at Guam

 

Secretary of Defense James Mattis was flanked by Joint Chiefs Chairman General Joseph Dunford, another four star Marine General, and whenever you are facing two four star Marine Generals, you are looking at a real and viable threat. The generals of North Korea should also note that there was no State Department representative at the press briefing which to us signals that the playing of games and screaming threats back and forth are done. President Trump has apparently lost all patience with the petulant child leader who believes his own propaganda that he is a godly endowed beloved Dear Leader of North Korea and that his sweat does not stink, if you catch our drift. President Trump has a Congress to conquer and cow into submission, and we do not mean the Democrats but the presumed members of his own party which presumably are helping get his agenda accomplished. To do this, he needs to straighten out the Republicans in Congress or promise to run campaigns against them in the Primary Election and again in the General Election if that is what it demands to get them replaced with somebody willing to end Obamacare, cut and simplify the tax codes and finally address and keep a thousand and one promises he made along the campaign trail. President Trump would much rather work on reducing the load of government regulations which prevent small businesses from succeeding and find some way to inject more competition into the seeming monopolies which have all but taken control of the largest media network in the history of the world, the Internet.

 

North Korean missiles are simply flies to be Swatted by Trump

North Korean missiles are simply flies to be Swatted by Trump

 

North Korea and all of its missiles are simply flies which require swatting out of the air so that the President can get to rebuilding the United States as he had promised. But, Winston Churchill stated clearly once that, “To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war.” President Trump would likely agree wholeheartedly and already traveled that road. You might remember his use of “jaw-jaw” which was covered extensively by the media under claims that President Trump was going to start a nuclear war any second. President Trump never said anything about starting even the shooting of a rifle unless provoked by an actual attack by North Korea. The initial promise by President Trump to answer in kind with that little extra touch called complete destruction if North Korea followed through on any of their three most stated threats, the complete destruction of Seoul, South Korea and a full assault on South Korea, a missile attack which would potentially include nuclear warheads on Japan or striking Guam with nuclear tipped missiles destroying everything on the island American Protectorate was overshadowed by the media circus. It must have been because Kim Jong-un doubled down on his threat by claiming the nuclear attack on Guam was imminent and the decision was already made and the time was approaching. President Trump again chose to jaw-jaw promising to reply to such an attack with rain of “fire and fury” down on North Korea. The media went ballistic again screaming fearfully that war with North Korea was imminent. What was odd was they said almost nothing or absolutely nothing when Kim Jong-un backed down and remained silent and promised he was ending missile tests. When the threat of war fell to almost zero, the media went as silent as Kim Jong-un with nary a mention that President Trump had backed down North Korean lunatic President Kim Jong-un and instead started their non-stop coverage of Charlottesville and the war on Confederate War statues.

 

 

When Secretary of State Rex Tillerson decided to publically brag about the back down of Kim Jong-un by President Trump and his administration to the media, it proved to be a provocation according to Kim Jong-un. What needs to be understood is Kim Jong-un is unstable and fully believes that he is invincible and that North Korea can stand toe-to-toe against the United States militarily. Kim Jong-un also fully believes his own greatness and superiority in all things, after all, this is the man who shot an eighteen the first time he went out and played golf. When Secretary Rex Tillerson challenged Kim Jong-un, he challenged his manhood as far as the North Korean man-child was concerned, and nobody is permitted to insinuate that Kim Jong-un is anything but an invincible god-man. It was no surprise that Kim Jong-un launched missiles the very next day and the day after and has returned to threatening to launch nuclear tipped missiles at Guam. Secretary of Defense James Mattis flanked by Joint Chiefs Chairman General Joseph Dunford gave what are most probably President Trump’s final words on the matter and as long as this final warning is heeded, the world will return to a nice peaceful place with nothing further from Kim Jong-un. This is exactly what would happen in a perfect world.

 

The problem is we live in this world. President Trump is pretty much done with Kim Jong-un and the whole North Korean threat. He has requested the different scenarios available from the Pentagon and how each one would be implemented. The President has likely also requested other plans for situations likely including decapitation of Kim Jong-un, preemptive strike to destroy Kim Jong-un’s ability to launch attacks on Guam or anyone, and other scenarios as well as what additional steps are required to provide full missile protection from the North Korean threat. The most difficult jobs will be protecting South Korea and Japan, as they are geographically neighbors of North Korea. As far as the probability of an actual war between the United States and North Korea, that is highly improbable. It would be an exchange of military might which would last less than two days, more likely less than thirty-six hours. The most probable outcome will be that things will start to cool as China or Russia will talk Kim Jong-un down from the perch and ground him for the duration of Trump’s Presidency. A war, even one of under a week, between North Korea and the United States would not prove good for either of their present plans, as they desire a United States concerned with internal problems and turning a blind eye to their plans and operations. Russia has their little arrangements for Middle East hegemony with Iran and its Shite Crescent stretching across from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea while China is quite busy creating their own Islands out of sand in the South China Sea. Neither of these ventures needs an alert and active United States looking around as to what needs addressing in this world.

 

President Trump is finished with jaw-jaw and will now allow Kim Jong-un to continue to scream and, with any luck, President Trump can avoid responding either in speech or by Tweet, then the world will be treated to Kim Jong-un sounding more and more desperate and futilely trying to gain some response from President Trump and permit him to gain some notoriety. This will be a test for the new Chief of Staff General John F. Kelly to control President Trump and keep him and the administration in a nonresponsive state no matter the challenge or threat from North Korea. This situation did not need to get this far but both China and Russia decided early on that they were not going to assist President Trump in any way and simply leave him to twist with a media roasting his every decision as if each were an impeachable offence and his entire administration suspected of the worst corruption or incompetence. They may have decided that this was a quick way to judge and frame exactly who President Trump is and what they can expect from him and how far he might be able to be pushed or pressured and what the signs are in order to judge him in the future. If this was their thinking, then they are also partially responsible along with the American media who spent their time tearing down the United States President than covering this conflict accurately and factually allowing Kim Jong-un to move the crisis to a more pitched height which was unforgivable. Should this terse conflict reach open warfare, there will be sufficient guilt and blame to go around but the only coverage which will be covered by the mainstream medias will be simply that President Trump was culpable for the entire mess and that Kim Jong-un was willing to end the crisis if only President Trump had simply made concessions and pay North Korea and provide them with fuel, food, money and who knows how much more and as North Korea has used this method of extortion multiple times before with success. Nowhere will one hear that the best solution for the people and the world would be the end of Kim Jong-un and the tyranny which has misruled the nation, all to the severe degradation of the lives of the people of North Korea, the real victims of the Kim family tragedy.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 15, 2017

Trump and a War with North Korea

 

We have an added introduction. The latest reports as of just before posting was that North Korea had backed down and decided to talk and cease their missile launching. We feel the article will still be relevant, as Kim Jong-un will likely play games similar to those we are all here very familiar with from Mahmoud Abbas. He will make demands, make half promises and then claim that the United States reneged on their promise, thus he will not need to keep his promise. Then more talking and somewhere between Thanksgiving and Christmas Kim Jong-un will announce he has had it with the American double-dealing and perversity and lies and return to firing missiles. The probable reason Kim Jong-un even agreed in the first place is he needs time to manufacture the weapons his latest nuclear breakthrough allows him to build. First, he needs to perfect the manufacturing process and then go into production. After he has made some number of warheads, thermonuclear warheads most likely, then he will return to his threatening ways as then he will have a number of deployable weapons making his threats real. For that reason, the article will still apply somewhere near when Americans are doing their Christmas shopping. It will just add more joy to the season, not.

 

The way we have read the potential conflict between the United States and North Korea has us somewhat confused. Much of the news appears to center on the threats President Trump has made in reference to the continued missile and other tests by the North Korean military and what President Trump has framed as threats coming from North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-un. The framing has appeared to place the threats as coming from President Trump and any threats made by Kim Jong-un have been in reaction to things said by President Trump. This has given the impression that should any actual fighting or launchings of missiles should erupt that it would be on President Trump that all blame should be placed. The theory is that President Trump should never have stood so strongly opposing to the tests and actions by North Korea or to the statements from Kim Jong-un and instead should have sought to have coddled Kim Jong-un by seeking to placate the dictator and give him some room to retain dignity by being able to claim he had stood up to the United States, demanded relief of some kind or other demands and in the end probably just required sending funds and possibly other material support in order to end any potential for confrontation.

 

Then there are other reports which claim that Kim Jong-un has intentionally provoked President Trump and threatened actual missile attacks and implied heavily that such an attack may very well carry a nuclear warhead should the North Koreans decide that was a necessity. They have stated that President Trump has been responding to North Korean provocations and been attempting to prevent any such attack and bring an end to the North Korean nuclear program before they develop an active nuclear stockpile of weapons, of nuclear warheads of immeasurable potential for destruction. There have been reports of Kim Jong-un making threats to strike Guam if the United States does not back off their provocations. Exactly what these provocations are has been only vaguely referred to in most of the media, well, almost all of the media. So there appears that there are two contrasting media viewpoints with one claiming that the threats and belligerence has come from President Trump forcing retorts by Kim Jong-un and the other the opposite with the North Korean actions pushing this crisis and President Trump simply trying to protect the interests of the United States and her allies in the region.

 

President Trump and Kim Jong-un in Missile Face-off

President Trump and Kim Jong-un in Missile Face-off

 

We wondered ourselves exactly who has been pushing whose buttons. We thought back and remember some of the beginnings of this ever-worsening crisis. The North Koreans have been suspected of working in conjunction with the Iranians. There have been reports that Iran has invested large quantities of funding with the North Koreans and there have been North Korean scientists witnessing Iranian missile launches, Iranian engineers witnessing North Korean nuclear tests and reports of cooperation to a high degree between these two adversaries of the United States. Reporting on the Iranian agreement reached by President Obama and the Iranians stated that Iran would be capable of producing nuclear weaponry before 2025. This is interesting as some have theorized that Iran already has nuclear weapons and had tested them in North Korea. For this service, the Iranians presumably provided the North Koreans with funding and in return, additionally in this deal the North Koreans provided the Iranians with missiles and carriers modeled after Russian ballistic missiles. And where did we find corroborations for this, CNBC (see video at link below).

 

The dangerous tie between North Korea and Iran

 

The entire North Korea imbroglio has been playing out exactly as one might expect from a B-movie. Kim Jong-un has thrown missile after missile into the Japan Sea and Pacific Ocean as an open challenge to President Trump.

March 6, of four ballistic missiles.
April 5, a failed launch exploding immediately after launch.
April 15, in the parade celebrating the birth of its founder, Kim Il Sung, displays several new ballistic missiles.
April 16, there was another failed launch exploding after launch.
May 14, tests of one of the missiles displayed in the parade which experts assess that it is capable of a range of 4,800 kilometers.
July 4, North Korea successfully flight tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile, the Hwasong-14, and with that launch it included a functional reentry vehicle, something not stressed seriously enough by reports but the return to splashdown confirmed this fact.
August 8, a leaked Defense Intelligence Agency report found that North Korea has produced miniaturized nuclear warheads.
August 9, North Korean made a statement detailing a plan to test four Hwasong-12 intermediate range ballistic missiles.

 

President Trump did something by sending an aircraft carrier group into the Sea of Japan off the Korean Peninsula. Kim Jong-un launched another missile, this time straight over Japan registering alarms from the Japanese detection systems causing an alert. President Trump upped his ante sending a second aircraft carrier group to join the first. A third aircraft carrier was deployed to the area to take part in war games with the Japanese and South Koreans. That was the height of the United States presence but still Kim Jong-un continued leading to the latest threat to strike Guam. The United States since deployed additional bombers to Guam and other stations in the Pacific Rim. This is where the world stands at this point. There has been quite a large amount of talk about the prospect of imminent war between the United States and North Korea. There is one large and critical item, this noise and bluster is mostly relegated to the media with the intent of making President Trump appear unsettled and potentially unstable and thus forcing a situation which could result in war, or as they love putting it, nuclear war. The problem with their claims is that President Trump has promised “Fire and fury” should Kim Jong-un actually attack Guam, Japan, South Korea or anywhere else which falls within the range of his missiles. Kim Jong-un has been the sole person to mention striking anything with a nuclear missile though only through innuendo. The United States does not require nuclear weapons to strike at North Korea and probably could use minimal weaponry in a strike to simply decapitate the leadership of North Korea and end the communist tragedy which had victimized the people of North Korea since early in the 1950’s. The most serious threat is to Seoul, South Korea as North Korea has sufficient artillery and rocket artillery to all but wipe the Seoul metropolitan area from the map. That is and will remain the most pertinent threat held by the North Koreans, as they would only require a few salvos and a full launch cycle of the MLRS (multiple launch rocket system) to cause unrecoverable damages south of the border. The North Korean Army has sufficient troops located near the border to completely overrun the South Korean and United States troops guarding the DMZ (demilitarized zone). There are approximately thirty-thousand United States Army personnel assigned to the DMZ.

 

President Trump has also attempted to have China intervene and has pressed the United Nations and passed through the United Nations Security Council sanctions against North Korea to apply financial pressures into play. President Trump received a unanimous vote putting the sanctions in place, quite an accomplishment considering the record of the Security Council’s past. The one thing which can be assured is that President Trump will not break with the United States not being the ones to initiate a war without exhausting every other avenue and will continue seeking Chinese intervention, as they are the North Koreans closest ally officially. We felt the need for the official comment as nobody knows the full extent of the cooperation and reliance upon one another between North Korea and Iran which may actually be one another’s best friends, just not officially. Even if Iran is the best friend on Kim Jong-un’s speed-dial and rolodex, the Iranians are not about to be of any assistance to the United States and this is nothing new as they would not have assisted President Obama either despite what the media may have attempted to pass off as truth. The final reality is the leader most likely to initiate a war will be Kim Jong-un but President Trump will be the one to end it as well as the best hope to avoid the need or probability for war.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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