Beyond the Cusp

July 20, 2017

North Korea Sending Threats to United States, Japan and South Korea

 

Let us start with the news as reported over the past few months including accusations by Kim Jong Un accusing President Trump is the world’s modern Hitler comparing President Trump’s proposed partial delay of permitting refugees as equal to Hitler racial profiling. He claimed that President Trump was willing to sacrifice the rest of the world just for the betterment of the United States. Kim Jong Un insisted that the world must unite against the United States first policy, which is just like Hitler, and the Nazi policy of a supreme Nazi State. There is no doubt that there has been a consistent ramping of accusations and bristling of North Korea and their missile testing with a string of launches including a possible ICBM test which might have the ability to reach Alaska and possibly the West Coast of the United States mainland. Kim Jong Un claimed that President Trump has been enforcing fascist policies, which place people as either friend or enemy, and Trump has following Hitler’s policy with his two state policy dividing Korean Peninsula into two camps, friend and foe. The ramping has also included the placing of three nuclear powered aircraft carriers into the Sea of Japan off the North Korean coasts. The problem for South Korea is that one of the world’s most heavily populated and crowded cities, Seoul, the South Korean Capital City, would be simply decimated should North Korea launch all of their rocket artillery and regular artillery targeting the city. This threat has left South Korea in an antithetically nervous positioning as the risks it faces against any attack launched by Kim Jong Un, despite their weapons systems being of older technology, have such massive numbers already targeting the South Korean Capital City of Seoul that the risks are terrifying. The ability for the United States to intercept all or even the vast majority of these projectiles would be limited leaving the only option being an American launched preemptive assault to destroy these weapons before they could be used. The remainder of such a war would be difficult but air power could make all the difference providing it is used intelligently and only to prevent artillery being moved into position as well as mobile missile launchers to protect South Korea and Japan. Invading North Korea would be more difficult than such gains would be worth, unless you are a North Korean who would be greatly assisted once such a war was completed and they were united with their South Korean fellow Koreans in a newly united Korean Peninsula which could be known as Korea without any need for a North or South denotation. The freeing of the North Korean people who have been held prisoner by their oppressive dictatorial family regime of the Kim’s since the division of the Peninsula after the Korean War will remain impossible until the world is willing to face the evil which has abused these unfortunate victims of the Kim’s. Now let us present the initial videos.

 

 

 

 

The frightening escalating rhetoric between the two leaders, President Trump and Kim Jong Un, can only be seen as troubling as this may at some point reach a point where neither man cares to back down such that the simplest of changes in the stance of the opposing forces could lead to a full-fledged open warfare. The reason that Kim Jong Un is seeking a reason to open up warfare against South Korea, as he has often made the same claim as his father, is that the entire peninsula belongs to their regime and that the division is an artificial and temporary situation. They both have promised to rectify this false line drawn at the 38th Parallel. Where Kim Il Sung used the threat of forcibly unifying the Korean Peninsula as an agenda designed to force bailouts from the Western World to climb back down from these threats but his son has been less measured. He did this a number of times with each one following a similar scenario but Kim Jong Un has gone off the tracks and started entering areas not before taken by his father. The threats against Japan could be excused as a limited raising of the threat level to justify receiving funds and differentiating his style from his father, as his seeming desire to prove to be willing to enter into areas that his father had not would have been satisfied by such threats. His direct threats of the United States is an entirely new and dangerous escalation, and his making it personal by bad-mouthing President Trump is treading on ground which may prove impossible from which to retreat. Further, his challenging President Trump by deliberately crossing every line almost as rapidly as they are set, whether they were set by President Trump or by the United Nations and even seemed to challenge the G-7 when they discussed Kim Jong Un and his response was to launch two missiles while the nations were meeting.

 

The other point which sets a level from which President Trump will have a difficult time backing away from was his claim at an interview during the G-7 meetings where he stated that the problems with North Korea will be settled. President Trump was not more detailed than stating that the problems would be settled during his watch. When you add to this the unprecedented level of naval power placed in the Sea of Japan of three aircraft carriers (pictured below) and their escorting vessels, that places a ready and floating attack force capable of operating as the tip of the sword which would be capable of making an interdicting attack potentially capable of preventing any North Korean attack on Seoul. The secret for the success of such an assault would require complete surprise, which would require using stealth aircraft for the initial attack and taking out all radar and command and control systems as well as destroying communication lines. This would depend heavily upon intelligence work in identifying such targets and also the ability with night sight targeting using helicopters such as the Apache which was designed for just such use and is also a capable attack craft which also is capable of defending itself as well as in anti-armor warfare. There are areas that the United States would be advised to be very wary and careful before considering getting that involved in any conflict with North Korea. The one thing the United States need avoid at all cost would be a ground war involving large numbers of American ground forces, especially United States Army other than possibly Special Forces.

 

Three United States Aircraft Carriers Dispatched to Sea Of Japan off North Korean Coast

Three United States Aircraft Carriers Dispatched
to Sea Of Japan off North Korean Coast

 

Talking about a ground war, the United States should make it known to the South Korean government that such an idea is not within the United States plans. The rumors are that there are forces in South Korea who desire making a united Korea one of their major elements as a target they wish to accomplish. There are some who are willing in making concessions to a larger extent than what the United States commanders believe is wise. Whether these individuals will gain sufficient political influence is something that will need to be closely monitored but not necessarily be a determining factor in what the United States is planning. Granted, South Korea is an ally and major partner and everything that will be done need be discussed with the South Korean leaders only if they are of a similar mind to the United States intended efforts. The other ally who also need be considered and kept informed with the same provisos as South Korea is Japan as North Korea has threatened them as well. Truth be told, there is nobody in the immediate area other than China and Russia that North Korea has not threatened, and the jury is out as to whether China has escaped Kim Jong Un’s ravings and threats. Looking at the map one sees that with each new missile, North Korea reaches further out and can target more and more nations making their threats all the more viable and increasing the nations who are concerned. With their latest missile, which they touted as an ICBM, though it is actually more of a continental ballistic missile, they now can target all of India and most of Indonesia along with Viet Nam much of eastern Russia and in theory might reach Anchorage and southern Alaska and definitely the Aleutian Islands and with just slightly more range the West Coast of the United States. Of course since North Korea has proven their ability to place satellites into orbit, albeit low earth orbit, this would allow them to be capable of striking anywhere on the planet with some minimal degree of accuracy though such a projectile would be best used to detonate as it was entering the atmosphere, as it is unknown if they have developed a casing capable of surviving reentry, which unfortunately would also be the perfect EMP device if the warhead were a low yield with high EMP discharge capability, just the variety of warhead some scientists and experts have claimed that North Korea and Iran have perfected. This makes North Korea a threat that must be addressed and defanged as Kim Jong Un has passed all requirements at almost every level of the crazy ladder.

 

Map of Approximate Missile Ranges of North Korean Missiles

Map of Approximate Missile Ranges of North Korean Missiles

 

The one item which actually serves to make the problems stemming from North Korea and particularly Kim Jong Un’s unstable personality less of a sole responsibility of the United States is that even his presumed friends, Russia and China, cannot be completely at ease with his increasing ranges for missiles and their ability to carry ever heavier payloads while he is also perfecting miniaturizing his nuclear warheads as even they could fall on his wrong side on just that one bad hair day when he just has to launch a surprise at somebody, and whomever got his attention that morning and is within range may just win a prize care of North Korea and their crazy man, Kim Jong Un. Now since for the moment the mainland United States is beyond direct missile range and can only be struck by a satellite which would be detected long before it could be delivered and might simply prove the adequacy of perhaps some space based interception system which the United States has kept under wraps and waste a good temper tantrum and would just upset poor not-so-little Kim Jong Un even more. The real problem as we currently view this situation is it has been slowly accelerated beyond the point where the normal brakes will prevent an open military clash. This might just be what all sides desire just to get the problem of North Korea settled on terms which do not include an all-out nuclear conflict which will place civilization of two continents, Eastern Asia and Western North America, in jeopardy. Simply to prevent such a nuclear contest it might be best to defang Kim Jong Un while his fangs will cause minimal toll in human lives though the potential to sacrifice the twenty-five and a half million lives residing in and around Seoul, South Korea and endangering the fifty-one million lives in South Korea plus the one-hundred-forty million lives in Japan plus whatever additional casualties Kim Jong Un would be capable of inflicting. However, many of the nearly twenty-seven million North Korean lives which could be lost might be a lesser cost than adding the four-hundred-twenty million Americans plus another three-hundred million in Europe and whomever else would be targeted should Kim Jong Un develop full range ICBM’s and thermonuclear warheads. The death toll might be less if instead Kim Jon Un were to use EMP devices in addition to more limited use of warheads such that he would continue to have a viable threat and such attacks could leave entire continents without electricity for decades leading to mass starvation, wide spread diseases and no means of combating almost any threat as there would be no refrigeration and little to no modern life left and transportation of goods would be massively interfered as such an attack would wipe out most of the modern vehicles including the long haul trucks and diesel electric trains which includes bullet trains as well as mag lev trains. The modern world could be brought to a level similar in nature to the conditions in North Korea and Venezuela only actually worse. Such a world would be a desperate place and even more so should industry in Japan and Germany be struck, as they are the major manufacturers of the modern large electrical transformers, the items that would be most required for rebuilding the world’s electrical infrastructure. These are some of the considerations which need be faced concerning Kim Jong Un especially since his nation has little to lose from any such conflict and might be the major beneficiary as then he could use his military and strike out to conquer much of the world. The main forces of the rest of the world would be any submerged submarines that include Boomers, nuclear powered submarines that can launch nuclear missiles.

 

Nuclear Missile Carrying Nuclear Powered Submarine

Nuclear Missile Carrying Nuclear Powered Submarine

 

One would have to figure that these are the ultimate answer to any attack as there would be no opportunity for any aggressor, no matter their size, no matter where on the earth they may be. Once these submarines are given their targets, all bets are off and the aggrieving nation disappears. These ballistic missile carrying submarines, depending on class, carry between twelve to as many as twenty-four multi-warhead ballistic missiles, which they can deliver to any point on the globe. The placement and locations of these nuclear powered submarines is a well-guarded secret. Once they leave port and submerge, they remain under and often go very deep and the only proven technology for even having a remote chance for tracking these are sensitive listening devices on hunter-killer submarines, special magnetic anomaly detecting satellites and special sonar equipment on the submarine chasing ships specially designed to locate submarines. The modern submarines have extremely quiet drive systems and are coated with a rubber-like substance that is also smooth, which makes them silent killers. These submarines are just as impossible if not more difficult to locate than depicted in Hunt for Red October. They are the ultimate answer for the nations who posses them.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 12, 2013

How North Korea with Nukes Defines Iran with Nukes

A good number of world leaders are currently sweating nervously while hanging on every threat that the new North Korean Dear Leader Kim Jong-Un utters with their nerves fraying even more each time the satellites or other intelligence sources report any activities taking place anywhere near missile sites or nuclear instillations. Even China, the one who usually is called upon to calm situations emanating from North Korea, has placed additional troops on their border with North Korea and appears to be just as concerned as anybody else. Russia has made statements which could be seen as indicating that they are also in the dark as to what this new, young and untested North Korean leader is likely to do. The concerns are spread throughout the whole gambit of possibilities. Will he launch a middle-range missile or two or many more? Will he launch the reported untested long-range missile? Will the missiles be armed with active warheads? Would he honestly choose to place a nuclear weapon atop one of the missiles and if so where the nuclear warhead would be aimed? Everything is very much unknown largely due to no clear intelligence on North Korea and absolutely no history or even inklings of information about the new leader of North Korea. The entire world is in the dark forced to take guesses and attempt to be ready for any and every possibility. And as unclear everything is concerning this confrontation that has thus far been simply words and false moves without any actual belligerent acts, the world does have the one calming hope that all of this will result in simply meeting some demands for easing sanctions and some other mostly political compromises and food aid or other trade items as this has been the scenario in the past when his predecessors, his father and grandfather, had taken similar actions of saber rattling and boisterous threats. The level of trepidation which seems to have gripped our leaders where they have taken precautionary measures but at the same time are tip-toeing so carefully around the problem refusing to stand up against the threats coming from North Korea as if they are quiet enough things will calm down on their own. Such a timid approach only emboldens Kim Jong-Un and allows him to appear far more powerful than he actually is which is exactly what he desires. Where part of this strutting and bellowing out threats is done for intimidation and effect in order to have his demands met once they are stated, the other part is for propaganda on the home front where Kim Jong-Un will have reports for the foreseeable future regaling how the world was hanging on his every word and willing to grant him whatever he demanded and their sacrifices have not been in vain as North Korea is so powerful they can virtually stop the world from spinning. Maybe things would end quicker and Kim Jong-Un could be denied the endless ranting under the spotlight if he was confronted and somebody demanded him to simply state what this was all about and after he makes some demands instruct Kim Jong-Un that he will accept exactly what the rest of the world is willing to give him until he compromises and allows some freedoms and begins to serve his people instead of his ego. But the world does not seem to work like that which is why people like Kim Jong-Un and his fathers before him can get away with such antics.

Now look down the road about three or four years, or maybe by the end of this year depending on which report is correct on the Iranian nuclear weapons program and imagine how the world will react to the Iranian President, whomever wins the election this June to replace Ahmadinejad, along with whatever supporting role the Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei decides to play making demands of the world. Imagine, if you can, Iran and the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps) along with their terrorist branches the world over, like Hezballah, threatening to detonate nuclear devices in multiple capital cities around the globe if their demands are not met. How would the world react if Iran decided to annex Iraq claiming they were simply reforming their rightful lands as the inheritors of the lands that belonged to Persia? They could then annex Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan all with the same claim. At what point would the world leaders decide it was too much and take a hard stand? Would it take having them attack a NATO country such as Turkey? Would the Europeans even flinch if they attacked Greece or would the Europeans see that as good a way as any to rid themselves of a problem? What if Iraq, Syria and Lebanon simply announced that they desired to form a confederation under Iranian rule with their retaining some amount of autonomy but falling under the protection of the Iranian nuclear umbrella? If the world is apoplectically paralyzed by North Korea when they presumably do not possess ballistic missiles capable of striking anywhere on the globe, what would be the reaction to Iran who by then will almost certainly possess such missiles? Would the United States go to war over Israel or would Israel become literally the Czechoslovakia of World War III? How about over Kuwait or Saudi Arabia? Would the world rise up to protect any of the Sunni Islamic countries if they began to fall under Shiite Iranian hegemony? After Iran crept across North Africa, would we then rise if they laid claim to Andalusia which is what the Islamic powers called Spain when they held much of it until 1492 when King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella marshaled the Spanish people and threw off the Islamic rulers. What if there were to be a modern battle of Tours in southern France. Iran is not a poor and economically desperate nation despite the effects that the sanctions have had on them. The Iranians are still managing to trade some of their oil and other goods and as the Western nations fall deeper into their own economic troubles we might very well see a resurgent Iran with many Asian and other nations discarding the sanctions and resuming trade with what would appear to be an Iran with a brighter future than the debt ridden Western nations. We need to remember that North Korea has a controlling power on its northern border and China would not allow the situation over North Korea threaten to bring a nuclear exchange to her southeastern border. Russia also would have something to say about such a possibility. North Korea also is far smaller and does not possess the natural resources that Iran does. Iran with nuclear weapons is a completely different and extremely dangerous threat which really cannot be compared to North Korea. If the nations of the world are unable to squelch the protestations and threats of Kim Jong-Un out of North Korea, then we will be in even worse position should Iran start to make similar noises backed by nuclear weapons. That is something to consider but not too close to bedtime if one wishes to sleep free of nightmares.

Beyond the Cusp

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