Beyond the Cusp

June 25, 2018

Middle East Reality Strikes President Trump

 

President Trump has yet to figure out the single most important truth about the Middle East. If you are unsure what this truth is, do not feel bad as none of the Presidents since President Truman have figured it out either and even President Truman and those before him back to President Jefferson did not figure it out either. Truth be told, President Jefferson was the sole President to figure out the Middle East equation, an equation which has not altered a single iota since then. The other problem is most people in this era have little memory or ever had knowledge of history, even the history of their own nation. This is true of Americans and apparently all too true of far too many modern Jews despite the center of our faith being remembering our past and celebrating that past where such is called for and mourn those happenings which can only be commemorated while not appropriate for celebration. The claim that Jews spend an inordinate amount of time and energy commemorating the past is true and will continue to be true as it is our past, which sets us apart and our very beginnings, which define our faith and our existence today. That is a truth about Judaism and why Israel, this little slice of land which is less than one-fourth of one percent of the lands in the Muslim world usually defined as the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa), is of such paramount importance to the Jewish People even in this modern era. But this is about President Trump and the problem his “Deal of the Century” faces as it has just run headfirst into the difficulty of the Middle East.

 

Presidents Jefferson, Truman and Trump

Presidents Jefferson, Truman and Trump

 

President Trump has based his “Deal of the Century” on replacing the implacable PLO or Palestinian Authority with Jordan, Egypt or possibly even Saudi Arabia. The easiest one of these nations to rule out is Saudi Arabia. President Bush who was a great friend of the Saudi Royal Family approached them for assistance in finding a solution during his administration. Instead of coming rushing to his aid, they simply took some time and met with other leaders of the Arab League and other Arab nations and eventually produced the Saudi Plan. The plan is also called the Arab Plan and is not very much different from the previous demands. Like every other proposed plan, this one also demands the pre-June 1967 lines, also known as the Green Line, completely erasing the losses from the Six Day War and resetting the area back to the borders which the Arab world found so inviting for destroying Israel that they simply had to attack. This is the initial demand, basically demanding a do-over for the Six Day War. Then it demands that there be a satisfactory solution be found for the Palestinian refugee problem. This is another standard where it is demanded that Israel accept anywhere from five to eight million Arab refugees and grant them their rightful citizenship in Israel transforming Israel into another Muslim majority nation which after the next election will soon star to destroy the Jewish population if any Jews wait that long before fleeing for their lives. Their claim is that since Israel is a democratic nation which provides for religious freedom, what complaint can the Israelis have in accepting these refugees? The problem is we have seen what happens to a nation once the Muslims become the majority by looking north to what had been predominantly Christian Lebanon which is now ruled by Hezballah which is armed and threatening to destroy Israel. The promise to Israel was should they accept this deal the Muslim Arab nations would consider recognizing and normalizing relations with Israel. Many people love to claim they promised to accept and have normal relations with Israel which is untrue, they only promised to think about doing such. Our bet is they would wait until Israel became yet another Arab Muslim nation before changing anything. The entirety of the Saudi Plan would be unacceptable but oddly enough, it was rejected by Yasser Arafat before it was presented as a plan to Israel.

 

That was the grand deal from Saudi Arabia and we are willing to bet that even the new leader, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, would not bring that big of a change, especially this early in his rule. His immediate plans are apparently domestic though he is not about to completely ignore the outside world. Prince Mohammed bin Salman will definitely watch the Saudi Arabian nemesis, Iran, and watch them closely. Israel is a problem which he does not require and as much as he probably would love to befriend President Trump, there are some requests which would be one too far. Prince Mohammed bin Salman might be willing to place the agreement of Saudi Arabia to any plan which proves acceptable to the Arab League and the rest of the Arab World as well as the Palestinian Arab leadership. That is where the knot of the problem sits.

 

Looking to Egypt and a year ago, that might have been a possibility but President Sisi is not sitting in as strong a position and much of his efforts will be to assure that he remains President of Egypt even if elections have to be massaged. His is an easy problem to define, and it is defined Muslim Brotherhood. Yes, he outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood, but being outlawed and being expunged from the Egyptian population are two very different things. Much of the rural and poor population in Egypt receives assistance from Muslim Brotherhood Imams and officials and with the food, you win their support. It is a political equation as old as politics and probably older. President Sisi has also been in a running struggle with the Imams at Al-Azhar University in his effort to modernize Islam and turn them from their absolutist beliefs and bring Islam back from the precipice which abrogation placed them. President Sisi is attempting to end the insistence of domination over all other religions and the inevitability for conquest of the world bringing all to worship only Allah and allow for Islam to become a modernist religion where it will find a path for accommodating a plurality of religion and for the existence of lands which are not ruled by Muslims. Sisi is fighting fourteen-hundred years of history coming from the initial Caliphate and continuing through the Ottoman Empire. Should he fail, then Islam will continue on its path of confrontation and attempts at conquest continuing from time to time until they finally either conquer the world and bring all to Islam or are eradicated by a world no longer willing to accept their consistent resorting to confrontations. So, Egypt is out.

 

This leaves Jordan. President Trump has first placed his hopes with Jordan. Just this past week Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited King Abdullah in Amman, Jordan. Probably the easiest and most informative means of taking measure of their meeting would be to quote their statements which they released after their talks. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s response was given in an official Press Release stating, “Prime Minister Netanyahu and King Abdullah of Jordan met today in Amman. The King and the Prime Minister discussed regional developments, advancing the peace process and bilateral relations. Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated Israel’s commitment to maintaining the status quo at the holy sites in Jerusalem.” You have to love the conciseness of his emotionless, flat statement completely devoid of emotion.

 

King Abdullah was far more expressive in his communique. His statement came as follows (We initially tried to go to the link but found it nonfunctional. The article we relied upon for the King’s response can be read here),

 

“His Majesty King Abdullah, at a meeting on Monday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who departed Jordan after a short visit, stressed the need to make progress in efforts to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on the basis of the two-state solution and in accordance with international law, relevant UN resolutions, and the Arab Peace Initiative.
“King Abdullah reaffirmed that the only way to achieve peace and stability in the region is by reaching a two-state solution and the establishment of a Palestinian state on the 4 June 1967 lines with East Jerusalem as its capital, living side by side with Israel in peace and security.”
“The King affirmed that Jordan will continue upholding its historical role in safeguarding Islamic and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem, in accordance with the Hashemite Custodianship.”

 

There are two items worth note, the first being the inclusion of safeguarding Christian holy sites with no reference to Jewish sites. The inclusion of Christian is taking additional right to having the right for control beyond the original agreed upon Islamic sites thus insisting on Jordan now having responsibility for all of the Temple Mount according to the King and further claiming that there is no holiness to Jews of the Temple Mount. This is a step towards preventing Jews from having access to the Temple Mount and a step backwards from recent events. The problem of the Temple Mount will likely now only start to escalate if Jordan decides to press the exclusion of Jews from the Temple Mount and, if the King follows the extremist views of the Palestinian Authority, denial of use of the plaza before the Western Wall, which Abbas has claimed is holy only to Islam. This path would lead to a direct confrontation testing relations between Israel and Jordan, a relationship which has grown colder on recent times.

 

The second issue is King Abdullah was simply restating the unresponsive position which Mahmoud Abbas and also Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Arab position since 1917 when the British declared their intent for a Jewish State with the Balfour Declaration and again throughout the following San Remo Conference, Treaty of Serves, the Mandate System, United Nations General Assembly Resolution 181 and finally the Declaration of the independence of the State of Israel in May of 1948. What he stated was that Jordan would demand that there be a Palestinian Arab state formed along the pre-Six Day War Green Line including eastern Jerusalem and the provisions of the Arab Initiative as described above includes the imposing of five to eight million Arab refugees into Israel making it another Arab Muslim nation as soon as elections would be held.

 

So, what is it that President Trump has run into? He has struck what we would refer to as the Islamic Brick Wall. President Jefferson figured it out as the Barbary Pirates demanded more and more protection payments and whenever the United States resisted returned to taking sailors from American ships until the payments were made. He also had heard it from the Ambassador Sidi Haji Abdul Rahman in London representing the Dey of Algiers who controlled the Barbary Pirates. Ambassador Sidi Haji Abdul Rahman Adja had answered that Islam, “It was founded on the Laws of their Prophet, that it was written in their Quran, that all nations who should not have acknowledged their authority were sinners, that it was their right and duty to make war upon them wherever they could be found, and to make slaves of all they could take as Prisoners, and that every Musselman (Muslim) who should be slain in Battle was sure to go to Paradise.”

 

Islam is a religion of conquest founded on beliefs which coalesced in the first hundred and fifty to two hundred years where abrogation placed the parts of the Quran written in Medina which contradicted the Mecca verses as abrogating the earlier verses. Egypt President Sisi is one of the most public persons who have called for abrogation to be reversed and the Mecca Quran, the original writings of Muhammad, as having primacy. Until Islam, if ever they should, follows the desires of President Sisi and his fellow patrons for amending the precedence of the later verses allowing the multicultural and more open Mecca verses guide modern Islam, there cannot be surrender of any lands by Islamic nations. This means that Israel, as well as Spain (Andalusia), must be erased and the lands returned to Islamic rule. Further, Muslims are to be pledged to forging a world where only Allah is worshiped and Islam is the sole religion. This is why Islamic nations strive to eradicate all other religions within their borders. This is also why Israel is the only nation in the Middle East where the Christian population is increasing. Saudi Arabia has places where no non-Muslim is permitted to tread, and by places, we mean entire cities such as both Mecca and Medina. Further, it is illegal and punishable by death to be a follower of Judaism, Christianity or religion other than Islam in Saudi Arabia. The supremacy of Islam is so defined that it even reaches to the point that one must practice the correct form of Islam thus the enmity between the Sunni and Shiite Muslims and Saudi Arabia and Iran, each the preeminent nation of each form of Islam. Iran has already made it clear that their intent is world conquest starting with Saudi Arabia and then on to Israel and the United States. The Saudi Arabians are more passive as Sunni Islam includes at least 85% of all Muslims with almost the entirety of the rest being Shiites. Either way, Islam, both Sunni and Shiite with Shiite being the more active currently, live by the concept of the sword, thus it matters little to the world which one is dominant, they will both eventually attempt to dominate. What is possibly a saving grace is that many in Islam pledge to make their founding school of Islam the dominant form which is part of why there are as many Islam-Islam wars. Below is a map of the numerous separate founders of the various forms of Islam. One can notice that Iran, Iraq, Qatar and Bahrain are the most populated Shiite Islamic centers while most of the rest of Islam belongs to some form of Sunni Islam.

 

The main Islamic madh'habs (schools of law) of Muslim countries or distributions

The main Islamic madh’habs (schools of law) of Muslim countries or distributions

 

Both forms of Islam hold Mecca and Medina as their most holy cities and none outside those speaking about Israel believe, and not even those speaking of Israel, that Jerusalem is the third most holy city in Islam. In Shiite Islam after Mecca and Medina they are Najaf, Karbala, Kathemiya, Samara, Mash’had and Qom are the next most holy cities. In Sunni Islam Mecca and Medina, they are Istanbul, Cairo, Kufa and Karbala. Oddly enough, Jerusalem is not mentioned in the Quran as Muhammad removed any reference to Jerusalem after the Jews refused him as their prophet. This happened even before he presented the Quran to be written down by a scribe, as Muhammad did not read or write. The reason that Jerusalem is noted today as the third most holy city is because it is the city which Islam desires to conquer, or reconqer, next. The honor of being the third most holy city has also been shared by Damascus, Constantinople, Rome, Paris, London and New York amongst others. It is all part of the promise from Allah that in the Quran states that Islam will rule the world and all will bend to Allah and his people.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 11, 2018

Jordan Option Already Failed

 

There is quite a bit of chatter about bringing Jordan and King Abdullah II to be part of the solution replacing the PLO, Fatah, the Palestinian authority and Mahmoud Abbas along with all the slime in the Land for Peace formula as part of Trump’s Deal of the Century. Jordan was part of the 1948 invasion of Israel the very morning of Israel’s birth along with five other nations, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia plus the Arab Brigades led by the Mufti of Jerusalem and other irregulars from across the Arab world. Jordan was not initially part of the Six Day War but after hearing of the great gains and the approaching of Tel Aviv by Syrian and Egyptian forces, as reported on Egyptian and Syrian radio and television reports, Jordan ignored Israeli reports that they were routing the Syrian and Egyptian forces and attacked Israel to join in the glory of destroying the Zionist Entity. This was how Jordan lost their occupation of what they renamed the West Bank as Israel first liberated Jerusalem and the Temple Mount and then all of the Shomron all the way to the Jordan River. This left quite a number of Jordanian Arab citizens still in the Shomron which have been used by the Arab world to attempt and destroy Israel and wrest the heartland of Israel historically, Biblically and also found throughout the Torah knowing that this would make the eventual destruction of the Jewish State. If this is the idea President Trump thinks will make peace more readily achievable, he has another think coming.

 

Let us first speak about the one solution which includes Jordan which will actually work providing President Trump has the wherewithal to entice the Arab League and Jordan to accept such a solution. How this peace plan cares for the so-called Palestinian Arabs is that it reactivates or grants, for the younger generations, Jordanian citizenship allowing them to vote in Jordanian national elections as well as their local elections in their towns and cities. They will not be able to vote in Israeli national elections and in mixed towns and cities there will need to be arrangements made such that both sides are permitted self-rule. These Arabs will also need to be required to sign a non-belligerence agreement with Israel in which they promise to respect the rights and existence of the Israelis and that they forswear and renounce terrorism in all forms and recognize the rights of Israelis to reside wherever they choose. They will further admit to the knowledge that, should any member of their family commit an act of terror or be found to be engaging in support or commission of an act of terror, this will result in the entire family being deported to Jordan, or to Syria should Jordan refuse to accept them. This zero tolerance for terror will be required simply because Israel cannot be expected to allow those who harbor or support the individuals committed to terrorism to continue to reside within her borders.

 

The advantage for Jordan is they get some of their former citizens back but Israel will be tasked with keeping them safe from any foreign violence such as threats from Islamic State and other terrorist activities as well as normative threats. These individuals will most likely earn higher wages than the average Jordanian which means they will pay a greater amount in taxes to the Jordanian government. Israel will be absorbing any cost of protecting these areas from outside threats. The largest problem which the Israelis will need to fight against will be illegal immigration. They will need to prevent other Jordanians from entering into these areas of Jordanians increasing the potential for problems and especially the encroachment by terrorists which will pose a threat to Israelis and the Jordanians residing within Israel as resident aliens. This will be a difficult sell for the Trump Administration with most of the responsibility falling to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo (currently undergoing confirmation hearings), National Security Advisor John R. Bolton and Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis (a former four-star Marine General nick named “Mad Dog Mattis”) will be added to the entourage of Trump Team people pressing to impose his Deal of the Century. The success of any peace plan will be Arab acceptance and proving to Israel that their security will be assured in perpetuity and under their control and not being reliant upon foreign forces. In all honesty, it might be best if these three presented the deal and the Middle East team stands down allowing themselves to be advisors, not to be the front presenters of Trump’s plan.

 

President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, National Security Advisor John R. Bolton, Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis

President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo,
National Security Advisor John R. Bolton, Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis

 

As far as Trump and his great deal of the century, the final deal to be presented allowing for the Arabs to have any say in the end determination of boundaries and the status of the Arabs residing west of the Jordan River, will be rejected by Abbas and the Palestinian Authority and demonstrations in Jordan will make King Abdullah II accepting the deal difficult. According to the original determinations made when the League of Nations and the allied powers from World War I determined the division of the defeated Ottoman Empire, the border between the Arab state of Transjordan and the Jewish State which would become Israel was along the Jordan River and the Jordan Valley south of the Dead Sea. This was the borders when the Arabs invaded on May 15, 1948 in their war to annihilate the Jewish State in its cradle. This war left Jordan occupying the Shomron parts of Judea and Samaria, which they renamed to erase the Jewish influence of the real names, while Egypt occupied Gaza. The Six Day War returned the borders which Israel was originally given and Israel also held the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights. The Yom Kippur War when Syria and Egypt launched a surprise attack with Israel, resulted in the borders and lands Israel held as unchanged when peace was restored. Since then there have been very few changes with one large exception, Israel restored all of the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt when they made peace but Egypt refused to reclaim the Gaza which they had occupied returning the land to Israel. When Jordan made peace with Israel, they released their claims to the Shomron allowing the land to return to its rightful owner, Israel. Israel has since annexed the Golan Heights which was permitted under United Nations Security Council Resolution 242. When Israel returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt they satisfied the remainder of United Nations Security Council Resolution 242 that demanded Israel return lands, not all lands, and retain those lands required giving Israel secure and defensible borders (see map below). Israel would be within their rights to keep all the lands west of the Jordan River and even in returning the Palestinian Arabs to Jordan, as they are all either originally Jordanian citizens or their children. Thus far, Israel has not taken that route hoping in vain to reach an equitable peace. You cannot reach an equitable peace with those whose sole desire is to kill all Israelis and then every Jew in the world. That is why there has been no peace, not because, as the Europeans and leftists love claiming, because Israel wants to make a Greater Israel. The most Israel has ever hoped to attain is that which was promised her by the world in treaties from San Remo Conference to the 1924 Anglo American Convention. The British Mandate was divided between the Arab State of Transjordan (now Jordan) and the Jewish State of Israel with their border being set as the Jordan River, and that is what the world owes to Israel if their words have any truth.

 

Map of the lands promised to the Zionist Congress and inviolable and sacrosanct for all time by Great Britain and the League of Nations as an addendum to the Mandate System which makes this promise also enforceable by the United Nations and considered equal to a treaty through Article 80 of the United Nations Charter. This was also considered as an element incorporated to the San Remo Conference which is also applicable in modern times.

Map of the lands promised to the Zionist Congress and inviolable and sacrosanct for all time by Great Britain and the League of Nations as an addendum to the Mandate System which makes this promise also enforceable by the United Nations and considered equal to a treaty through Article 80 of the United Nations Charter. This was also considered as an element incorporated to the San Remo Conference which is also applicable in modern times.

 

President Trump will likely have some plan which will offer the Arabs lands west of the Jordan which would eventually be utilized as a beachhead for yet another war to try and exterminate Israel. This has been the pattern since the founding of the State of Israel. Every time Israel has retreated from lands, they have been utilized to attack and attempt to destroy Israel by her Arab neighbors. Now this has spread to Iran who is providing military support to Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. The current violent rioting is simply an attack designed to breach the border defenses of Israel and send mobs marauding through southern Israel murdering every Israeli they are capable of finding. Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, threatened the Israelis stating, the people of the Gaza Strip will “eat the livers of those besieging” the coastal enclave, using an Arabic idiom that means to take revenge on someone. He further declared that, “The March of Return will continue. It will not stop until we remove this transient border.” The border violence is not intended to be peaceful and will not end without a great degree of bloodletting. The only decision will be which side will lose the battle and suffer the greatest numbers of casualties. As to who will lose the media coverage, that has already been determined by the coverage thus far. Israel, as is the norm in the European and leftist media, will be blamed for any result in which Israel survives. The only way Israel can make penance for the crime of the Jews returning to their ancient homelands and fulfilling the prophesies of said return is for Israel to allow itself to suffer utter and complete defeat. The utter destruction of the Jewish State is the desire of the new age secularist evangelicals as to permit the reestablishment of Israel to persist and for the Third Temple to be erected would mean that everything they claim is in error. Their insistence that there is no real right or wrong, that all things are relative and nothing can be absolute, is antithetical to the entirety of Torah and the Jewish faith. Their belief accepts the theory of supersession where Christianity replaced Judaism and Islam replaced Christianity and their beliefs have superseded all former religions as their secular humanism replaces all need for religion. Their world is one of relative truth where truth depends on individuals. There are no absolutes and the teachings of Torah are an anathema to this new breed where each person defines what is and is not permitted in their piece of the world. Relativism is in direct contravention of Torah which gives structure and definition to life directing that which is expected of each person and defines the paths of life.

 

Israel stands for the Torah and will reconstruct the order and meaning to life for Jews in Israel. The Torah is meant for all people but only need apply for now to Jews. Israel and the Jewish People do not demand that anyone other than the Jews live by Torah. Beyond the borders of Israel, the world may live as they please. There is no demand for the Jews to conquer the world or expand the borders of Israel. We simply want that which the world promised us such that we could live peaceably and study Torah. We wish nothing from our neighbors beyond the right to live. Our desire is for us to live and our neighbors to live and for each to follow the path they desire. Our ways are peace when peace is permitted but when war is thrust upon us, like any people, we defend ourselves. Gaza is the threat we are facing. Israel surrendered Gaza to the Arabs in hope of having peace. Israel retreated from southern Lebanon seeking to have peace. Both places now are threats to the survival of Israel, Hezballah in the north in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Both of these fronts are currently backed, supplied, sided and following the desires of Iran. Iran has sworn to destroy Israel by any and all means at their disposal. Iran seeks nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them and the world can only surmise of the threat a nuclear armed Iran will pose not only to Israel, but to the world. If the world will simply allow Israel to keep the lands she was promised and to respect our borders, we will reside within, practice Torah, develop great discoveries in all fields and share these discoveries with the world for its betterment. Allow us what was promised and we will repay the world with wonders just as we have for the past seven decades. Imagine the discoveries and new methods in medicine and agriculture Israel could add to the world if there was no threat to her existence. Just as an example, one small item from Israel which most are unaware but many enjoy, Israel used agricultural science and bred the cherry tomato, and that is one delicious thought on which to close.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 8, 2016

Beware of Bidens Bearing No Peace Plan

 

United States Vice President Joe Biden is kicked off a Middle East tour Monday in the UAE (United Arab Emirates) but we all know where the trip will end and what the build-up will do for expectations for pressure to be placed on the Israelis in order to beg and grovel to get Mahmoud Abbas just to have him insult us and make broad claims of Israeli intransigence and refusal to make the needed sacrifice for peace. The reality is, and everyone in governments of Europe, the United States, United Nations and every corner of the globe is that Mahmoud Abbas cannot afford to make peace as doing so would lose him the one thing which keeps him alive and in power, the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) working intelligence and preventing any challenge or takeover by Hamas, Islamic State or any other terror group which would unseat and behead the leadership of the PA (Palestinian Authority) within days, weeks at the longest, of the Israelis pulling from Judea and Samaria (a.k.a. West Bank). Further, if Mahmoud Abbas did reach an accord and established his presumed dream of an Arab state named Palestine, or any other name, then he would have to actually provide real services to a much larger area as Israel provides most of the services in Area B and all the services in Area C which combine to make around three-quarters of the contested areas. Combine these additional government responsibilities and services with the fact that the amounts of aid received by the PA would soon dry-up as there would no longer be any conflict with Israel after such an agreement and without the conflict with the Jewish State the Europeans and United Nations would move on to some other pressing problem like forcing Israel to accept ten million Syrian refugees which Europe was refusing to accept. Without the funds the PA, now a real state, would simply become the latest failed state incapable of providing services or meeting the payroll leading to rioting and the eventual complete collapse of the state of Palestine while the exhortations by Mahmoud Abbas pleading for financial assistance in order to at least reach some form of equilibrium and functionality as without aid, Abbas might even threaten that they would need to declare war on Israel to force the world to take notice.

 

 

United Nations Headquarters and Piece of New York Skyline including the Trump Tower

United Nations Headquarters
and Piece of New York Skyline
including the Trump Tower

 

 

The announcement before Biden left Washington last week was that neither President Obama nor anybody from the administration expects the visit to produce anything concerning the peace process as Biden will be discussing military aid package for the next decade with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the military command of Israel. If past experience is any indicator of future events, which it more often than not is, then there will be no military aid without concessions for peace and the Israeli leadership will be pressed and pressed and then threatened with an end to military aid, cancelling the F-35 JSF jet fighter deal, withholding of the United States veto in the Security Council on moves for Arab statehood, thus granting Palestinian statehood using the Green Line, the 1949 Armistice Line, which the Arab League demanded never be used as a border ever. There might be threats that the United States would assist and encourage the French to go forward with their plans for final peace talks which if they failed, then the world through the Security Council and General Assembly of the United Nations in a universal accordance would establish Palestine. There may even be floated the idea that Israel not only take whatever steps required to allow the formation of an Arab state named Palestine but also be made responsible for assisting and coordinating with the new state and held as the guarantors for its successful function. Granted this sounds preposterous, but this is not as far-fetched as you might first believe. Israel had been tasked with assisting the PA Security Forces assuring their functioning in Area B before the United States took to training the Palestinian Security Forces in Jordan for urban warfare and other tactical exercises under the command of Lt. Gen. Keith Dayton who succeeded Lt. Gen. William “Kip” Ward in December 2005. Their training has been similar in nature to elite infantry training in the United States. Why such training is provided to a security force which is not responsible for military tactics, but that is what the United States feels the security forces for the PA are going to need.

 

The reason that the United States may have for the extreme training would be believing they might be required to defend an actual nation of Palestine from any threats. But what threats as the neighbors of such a state would be Israel and Jordan, neither of which would have any reason for attacking the PA state unless attacked by them first. The only real threat would be terrorist groups such as Islamic Jihad, Hamas, al-Qaeda and Islamic State. In case of any of these entities attempting to take over any PA State would also pose direct threats to both Israel and Jordan thus it would be in both neighbors’ interest to assist the defense of the PA state if such was requested or possibly even if it was not, as long as the assistance was temporary as nobody desires a reinstating of any occupation. But this training was likely at the behest of the PA leadership which then begs a different question, why would the PA desire an offensive trained security force as security militaries are usually designed to hold their own ground and not having full infantry assault training as they are not exactly going to be forging beachheads from the West Bank as the Jordan River, Dead Sea and Sea of Galilee are the closest bodies of water. Still, there has to be a reason for the PA to have their security forces trained in general combat techniques and in urban warfare in addition to anti-terror operations. The anti-terror operations has an obvious reason, they wanted to understand the methodologies of how the IDF would respond to any major terror campaigns so as to be capable of blunting IDF efforts. Urban warfare training might be applicable against any attempt by Hamas to make an overt takeover of Judea and Samaria as they had done in Gaza. Of course the PA forces in Gaza had been trained and still managed to lose the entirety of Gaza within a few days when the final push came and the PA forces proved useless.

 

That leaves the question of what further use might having military operations training and general combat techniques be useful and what goals might the PA security forces, which number in the thousands of officers, be used towards? The only other target which the Arab Palestinians have ever claimed beyond driving the Jews into the Mediterranean Sea has been to overthrow the Monarchy of Jordan and allow the Arabs, who identify with the cause and quest for power of the PA against Israel, take complete control over Jordan. The main obstacle has been their lack of training and the fact that King Abdullah II’s military consists largely of tribesmen loyal to the crown which shows them preferential treatment and favor over the larger Palestinian population. This does not mean that the Palestinian people are not treated well and they do receive much support from the King and the government but the loyal tribesmen, especially those serving in the military and making up the reserve forces, serving the King in a show of gratitude. King Abdullah II has gained major support of the people from his actions when the Jordanian pilot captured by the Islamic State was tortured and executed in a barbaric manner burning him alive while trapping him in a cage and using the video as a message of superiority over Jordan and as a recruitment tool. Still, there have been those Jordanian Arab Palestinians, who have joined the Islamic State, as have peoples from all of the surrounding Arab Sunni states, but generally the population of Jordan are more sympathetic with the Arab Palestinians in Israel and desire that their military be more supportive of the fight against Israel even to the point of directly aiding the PA in any general uprisings such as the current intifada.

 

 

Jordanian Armed Forces Crest

Jordanian Armed Forces Crest

 

 

One must also remember the attempt by Yasser Arafat to overthrow the Jordanian monarchy and government in the early 1970s. The attempt to overthrow the Jordanian monarchy and take control of Jordan, something the many Bedouin tribes would oppose and who make-up the officer core due to their loyalty to the King, resulted in routing the coup attempt by Yasser Arafat. Their failure in Jordan was what forced the PLO into Lebanon where they quickly attempted a takeover of the Lebanese government resulting in Syria attempting to grab control over Lebanon taking advantage of the turmoil and confusion. This led to the Israeli intervention at the invitation of the Lebanese Christian militias. This resulted in a prolonged Israeli presence creating a buffer zone protecting the Israeli north. This interventional force did suffer a steady number of casualties from suicide bombings and other attacks which the left and the media in Israel used to apply pressure with sizeable demonstrations often by foreign financed NGOs from the left leading to Israel ending the interventional force presence. This permitted Hezballah to set-up their bunker systems and rocket launchers in the extreme south of Lebanon which eventually led to the very costly Second Lebanon War. One must also remember that Hezballah was a direct result of the PLO efforts to overthrow the Lebanese government in the mid and late 1970s.

 

The PLO was the direct progenitor of the PA which is as the PLO before it a direct arm of power projection of the Fatah movement. Any attempt to paint the PA as democratic is a farcical effort as there have been no elections, free or otherwise, since the debacle brought on by United States pressure to hold open elections which were won in large part by Hamas and not Fatah. This led directly to the Hamas flexing of their abilities and mastery and control in Gaza to oust the PA which had denied them their proper victory by basically imposing Fatah supremacy using the Presidency of Abbas. He assumed the position after Arafat’s demise as Arafat’s number two since the founding of the PLO, taking over of Arafat’s roles as leader of Fatah, the PA, PLO and presumed President for Life of any future state. The final straw for Hamas was the cancelling of Presidential election which they were sure to oust Abbas, something Abbas refused to permit as he exercised every bit of his powerful position to put a clamp on all PA and other political functions and preserve what he could.

 

All of this has not altered the grand plan of the PLO, and thus perhaps the PA, of a grander scheme and power play toppling the governances around the area and setting up their claim to be the true leaders of the Arab world. These efforts failed in the 1970s and are no closer to fruition today as Fatah is only holding on to power in the contested areas of Judea and Samaria, oddly enough, because of the efforts by Israel to keep Hamas and others from replacing them The PA would easily be toppled which would lead to a catastrophic terror war emanating from the then former PA controlled areas with Hamas, Islamic Jihad and who knows who else all perched on the southwest in Gaza and direct east in Judea and Samaria overlooking central Israeli population and industrial heart of Israel. This could lead to a far more disastrous rocket war from Hamas with their rockets all but incapable of missing vital targets in and around Tel Aviv and the central core of Israel, a heavily developed area. That is the reason that Israel has supported allowing the PA to remain in Abbas’s incapable and bumbling hands. The alternative is the devil Israel does not know and does not want to know. What they do know is that Abbas has less ability to control anything beyond incitement against Israel. Abbas is in a particularly uncomfortable position of needing to continue aggressions against Israel while making sure not to force any overt actions from Israel. Abbas is also relying on Israeli intelligence and presence in the contested areas of Judea and Samaria to prevent his being overthrown and very likely murdered even by those in the PA who believe him incompetent, or at least impotent in the face of Israel and their ‘occupation’ of the Israeli ancestral heartlands, Judea and Samaria.

 

Eventually this house of cards, which is the toothless PA, will unify, overthrow Abbas and believe they are ready and prepared to topple Israel. And on that day the contested areas will no longer be contested but in open revolt, a very temporary revolt, after which there will be imposed a one state solution and the end of incitement and the presence of the United Nations monstrosity that is UNRWA in Judea and Samaria. The truth is that the only result to the contested areas is complete and total control by Israel. Even if the world were to force the Arab state of Palestine on Israel, it would be a defenseless state, complete nonfunctional and failed state, and from the very beginnings would only devolve from there, with the ever fractious shards attempting to destroy the others and make a name by attacking Israel. Eventually Hamas or worse would emerge as the central power and this would lead to a costly and final war as Hamas or worse cannot be allowed to occupy any of the highlands overlooking central Israel. To allow such is suicide by the immediate thousand cuts made by inexpensive rockets needing no real guidance to strike at the heart of Israel. When such events do unfold, which are all but inevitable, Abbas will likely be the very first casualty and potentially at the hands of the very troops who now guard him, dying as every Caesar before has fallen. As soon as they are not paid their exorbitant salaries their loyalty will wane evaporating into the mists from whence they were born, and that will be the end of the PA. Very soon thereafter Israel will necessarily need to end the entire fiasco before it causes irreparable harm to Israeli infrastructure with attacks against her civilian populations where thousands are affected daily, and not the sparsely populated Negev regions.

 

The similar threat by Hamas and their longer range Iranian provided rocket engines and the ever larger payloads they carry deeper into the Israeli center which sparked the last Gaza War and will eventually lead to the final Gaza war which will result in the decimation of Hamas and Islamic Jihad and the crippling of any other sizeable force. The entire Arab Palestinian existence is that of two failed states whose only lifeline is their threatening Israel and being paid to do so. That cannot be permitted to reach its final goal of destroying Israel and murdering the six million plus Israeli Jews. The threat will eventually become sufficiently capable or sufficiently destructive despite their lack of credible force, only credible destruction, that will ultimately cause the quick and violent end of the Arab Palestinian autonomous states, Hamas’s Gaza and Fatah’s PA in Judea and Samaria. That is the sole finality and the one out for the PA is a successful takeover of Jordan giving them the arms necessary to bring on their destruction that much faster as the use of these weapons’ systems on Israel is an overt act of aggression and declaration of war, the final war.

 

Perhaps the best Israel can do is send Biden home joining those awaiting the election with the premise that it can’t get any worse. We are aware the Russians and Iranians are doing whatever they can, knowing that for them nothing could be better than Obama.
Beyond the Cusp

 

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