Beyond the Cusp

October 3, 2014

The Coming Iran Nuclear Deal

 

During the Meeting this week between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and United States President Obama in the White House the subject of the Iranian nuclear talks with the P5+1 (Five permanent UNSC members; United States, Russia, China, Britain and France; plus Germany) was said to be one of the major topics discussed. This is probably as good a lead to this story which was supposed to have been resolved to a greater deal almost six months ago but was pushed off until the end of November when no middle ground appeared possible. This was made possible by the clause in the previous partial agreement where sanctions on Iran were loosened in exchange for Iranian promises to state there were Iranian promises, exactly what those promises were defined to be depended on whom one asked, where the last part of that agreement allowed for it to be used as a resting place for the talks if no further progress were accomplished simply by agreeing to extend that letter of agreement for an additional six months of negotiations, an extension which could be enacted almost forever off into the future through repeated extensions. When this clause was first revealed it became obvious that the interim agreement was simply a way of allowing the parties to claim progress without necessarily making any progress. So, for the time being extending the previous agreement will have to serve as progress until the end of November. So, are we to expect another six month extension or will actual progress be reach in time?

 

The negotiations have appeared to be all but moribund with the two sides appearing to have been unable to move any closer together though one might get the feeling that that could change as the deadline approaches. There have been signs from the White House that a breakthrough may be lurking out on the horizon that we will just have to wait and see how negotiations play out. It is almost as if President Obama might be pleading to Iranian President Rouhani to please not make Obama compromise again in order to reach a deal as he may be willing to do exactly that, but not before the mid-term elections, and that is the reason for delaying the extension of the previous agreement such that the six month delay put the next deadline comfortably a few weeks beyond the mid-term election which provides sufficient time to offer American surrenders on one point after another on the way to near complete capitulation without making an all-at-once bombshell shock and awe collapse all too evident. We can expect the first inklings of the potential for a deal right before the mid-term elections with everybody being very tight-lipped claiming that it is too early and the situation for too volatile and delicate to make public exactly what the promising signs may be. This is the perfect we are on the way to historic agreement without having to give recognition that this historic agreement will be the ending of almost all sanction over the ensuing months in exchange for kind words and meaningless gestures all of which will culminate in the ending of the sanctions as they will have proven inadequate to prevent the new nuclear power on the block as it will be made known that Iran has reached the point of breakout and may already have acquired a nuclear weapons arsenal despite all the efforts, inspections and agreements which were supposed to have prevented exactly that from reaching fruition. There will be the requisite handwringing and regrets over the inability to have reached an accord in time to prevent Iranian nuclear weapons but that is no longer possible and the job at hand will be one of containment in order to prevent Iran using its nuclear weapons as a threat while also attempting to prevent the rest of the nations across the Middle East and into Northeast Africa from stampeding towards developing their own nuclear arsenals as their deterrents and as protection against the Iranian nuclear weapons.

 

The initial efforts after the realization that all efforts had failed exactly as warned by Israeli intelligence reports and the repeated admonitions by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that Iran was approaching the doorstep of entering the nuclear armed nations of the world and that President Obama’s actions and drawing negotiations out indefinitely into the future was simply facilitating the Iranian nuclear program and allowing it to reach its final goal of nuclear weapons and the industry to continue to produce additional warheads to their arsenals. The focus once it has been established that Iran has become a nuclear armed nation will be aimed at dual targets; the first will be the prevention of Saudi Arabia and Egypt from also attaining nuclear weaponry and the second to force the Israelis to surrender their nuclear weapons as the initial step to convincing Iran to also destroy their nuclear weapons, neither of which is likely. The first nation to follow Iran into the nuclear armed nations house will be Saudi Arabia though they will not necessarily have developed the necessary infrastructure to produce further weapons on their own as their initial weapons will have been provided them clandestinely by Pakistan as has been their standing agreement ever since the Saudis financed the Pakistani nuclear program allowing them to follow India in becoming a nuclear power and retaining the so-called balance of power between the two rivals. Following Saudi Arabia will most probably be Egypt and Turkey though the order of which will be the first between the two is unclear.

 

Once it has become evident that Iran has attained nuclear weapon status, the next stage will be working out some agreement limiting their arsenal size and opening up their facilities for inspection to assure they are abiding by any agreements to limit their production of nuclear warheads and the systems with which to deliver them over the entire globe. The rapid development of longer and longer stage rocket system with Iran long having ballistic weapons capabilities has presented a viable threat though it is presumed they have yet to have developed a reliable ICBM (inter-continental ballistic missile) which would allow for targeting the United States from within Iran. The development of a reliable and accurate ICBM may still be beyond Iranian capabilities but such capability is not that far off and like nuclear weapons, where there is the will, there is a way and Iran will assuredly reach that goal over time. Their lack of such a weapon at current times does not mean that the United States is perfectly safe from any Iranian nuclear weapons threat. Iran has allies who would gladly act as forward launching facilities placing all of the United States within range of their largest ballistic missiles should they succeed in placing them with their allies in South and Central America. Even without such staging, the Iranians have developed and perfected the ability to launch their two-thousand-mile range missiles from specially modified cargo vessels, an ability they have practiced launching from the Caspian Sea. These developments have been accomplished in some part by the assumption, erroneous as it has proven to be, that Iran did not have the scientific knowledge base to have accomplished the numerous weapons systems they have claimed to have accomplished and placed into production, but such an assumption is a dangerous thought process and may result in proving the admonition against underestimating the capabilities of one’s enemies. What the exact price will be for the United States and the world will be required to pay but we can be assured it will not be a cheap and inconsequential price.

 

It can only be assumed that another consequence of Iran becoming a nuclear armed nation will not only cause their adversaries in the Middle East to rush to attain a balance of power but it can be expected that there will be allies of Iran with whom they will share their bounty and among those nations we will assuredly find North Korea. Adding in Syria and Hezballah and we are starting to spell out a scenario which resembles many of the models for Armageddon. There will be those who will point to this failure to prevent a nuclear armed Iran as just one more proof that President Obama had only one goal and that was to disempower the United States and her closest friend, Israel, while setting the world ablaze with revolutions and the redrawing the map of the world and the balances of powers within. This would be just the goal an anti-colonialist would imagine as their life’s goal, to create a multi-polar world where the United States would merely be one of the equals amongst the rest of the primary powers within the world. This was first evidenced when President Obama tasked NASA with a new primary goal of imparting a sense of accomplishment and partnership in the Muslim World as without whom the space program would have been impossible. Their job-one was not any missions to Mars, or to the outer planets or even the moons of Jupiter or Saturn, nor was it to identify and set in place current plans and develop better future plans for dealing with near Earth objects and Earth crossing objects. The world is becoming a strange and interesting place and thus our times have also entered those strange, complex and interesting, even better and more disconcerting than the world in the ancient Oriental curse. What more could one ask of the first President to receive the Nobel Peace Prize simply for getting elected and who described his election to the highest office on the planet promising that, “I am absolutely certain that generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs to the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal; this was the moment when we ended a war and secured our nation and restored our image as the last, best hope on Earth. This was the moment – this was the time – when we came together to remake this great nation so that it may always reflect our very best selves, and our highest ideals.” Well, I guess we can only conclude this article by again using a quote from a man once said to be so humble and reserved, Barack Obama, “We are the ones we’ve been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.”

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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