Beyond the Cusp

May 31, 2018

The European Union Condemned Hamas

 

That’s the truth, the European Union actually condemned Hamas and Islamic Jihad for launching mortars and rockets at Israel unprovoked. But wait, it does not stop there. The European Union said nothing about the Israel strikes on Hamas and Islamic Jihad bases, weapons stores and rocket manufacturing factories. Could it be that the Europeans are awakening to reality? Well, we will hold out hope but realize it is best to wait and observe their actions in the future. Europe has been a bit of an enigma when it comes to Israel. There are some nations which can be counted on to support every United Nations’ and its agencies’ condemnations of Israel and setting up presumed neutral investigatory bodies to make sure the Jews are not protecting themselves too well. But this time, thus far, over eighty mortars and rockets were fired into Israel largely targeting civilian structures starting with a kindergarten and working their way around the areas close to Gaza. The results were a number of shaken people requiring administrating of counselling and other stress relieving therapies and three soldiers were injured in one strike with one remaining hospitalized as of this writing. The kindergarten was but five minutes before the children arrived for the day. Had the mortar shell been launched just a few moments later, the casualties would have been horrific. Still, this shell did injure one person who was tending the kindergarten. Hamas launched over eighty rockets and mortars in total and we will need to see what happens today. That brings us to the central question, how will Israel respond if Hamas and Islamic Jihad escalate or even simply continue shelling the Israeli southern regions. You simply know that the world is simply holding their breath hoping Israel simply allows the terrorists free firing line into Israel and not respond with force.

 

This is the question on much of the world’s lips which they dare not utter as doing so just might be all it takes to give Israel the go-ahead to respond with the full force with which she is capable. Perhaps the European Union condemned Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the hope that their rebuke would be sufficient to force them to reconsider escalating the situation. That would be a foolish concept as whether Hamas and Islamic Jihad escalate the situation forcing the hands of Israel has already been determined; the only question is how much provocation will be required to force the hand of the Israelis who make these choices. There is one way they can force the situation making things beyond any level of acceptability for Israel. Such a threshold is launching rockets into and striking Tel Aviv, Haifa, Netanya, Peta Tikva, Jerusalem or anywhere in this central region of Israel. Show an intent to strike Israel in the areas where the majority of everyone and everything is located and reap the consequences. This is not to claim that the areas bordering Gaza are of lesser importance as Israel values every life as sacred. Should Hamas or Islamic Jihad strike with such ferocity as to endanger the areas bordering Gaza, the most vulnerable areas to such attacks due to their close proximity to the launch sites, then Israel would have little alternative than to take out the launch sites and vehicles. Israel Defense Force (IDF) have the technology to locate such locations and vehicles even should they be underground or camouflaged or otherwise hidden and still strike them and put them out of action, just ask Syria or the Iranian forces operating from Syria. But is simply striking at the launchers and storage areas an actual deterrence or just a minor aggravation requiring some additional assistance from Iran? There is where the problem arises, how to strike Hamas and Islamic Jihad and make such strikes an actual deterrence.

 

Past experience has shown that striking the launch sites and vehicles often results in damaging civilian structures, more often than not, apartments and places where working people and the less well off reside. These apartment blocks are seldom if ever rebuilt and the people struggle to find decent shelter or a new permanent residence. Even should they procure a new apartment, they know that sooner or later Hamas or Islamic Jihad will place a rocket launcher on the roof of their new apartment building and that will be the end of that building. Hamas does not rebuild these apartment because as long as they are partially destroyed, they make a great place for hiding launchers plus the Europeans and United Nations will insist Israel allow sufficient cement and building materials to be passed into Gaza to rebuild them. These supplies are then used to construct underground bunkers for Hamas and Islamic Jihad leadership to hide and be safe while the population is left above ground and vulnerable. This is planned so as to maximize the numbers of Gazans injured or killed so they can be shown to the media. These building materials are also used to build tunnels with which to infiltrate Israel. Then, with each war with Israel, Hamas and Islamic Jihad can use the same destroyed buildings as proof that Israel is acting in a monstrous manner when the reality is many of the buildings were destroyed in previous wars. Leaving everything as rubble and partially destroyed, then Israel is claimed to have destroyed them again and again every time such is required to make the world angry with Israel and back Hamas and their fellow terrorists.

 

The Two Gazas with One Pristine and the Other Ravaged

The Two Gazas with One Pristine and the Other Ravaged

 

We have a different idea on how to get the attention, the full attention, of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Israel could simply bomb their homes instead of the unfortunate Gazans homes. Strike the launchers and weapons storage areas with the least amount of explosive needed and use large and devastating bombs and rockets to destroy the leadership of the terrorists’ homes. Should that prove insufficient, then destroy their nice malls and shopping areas, destroy their movie theaters, their fine hotels, their fancy restaurants, everything the rich and terrorist allied actually use and desire and then see if they are ready to stop. Should such as this prove insufficient, then send in a single commando unit with one target, the supreme command bunker located under the Al-Shifa Hospital. Decapitate the terrorist command and if this proves to be insufficient, repeat as needed. Taking out all that makes the leaderships’ lives pleasant and comfortable should get the massage across. Should such as these steps prove insufficient, then there is but one other option; completely cleanse the entirety of Gaza of every known terrorist and terror sympathizer.

 

Even if doing so reduces the population of Gaza by eighty or more percent, just do that which is required and allow the world to scream. The remaining population would be placed on a trial basis for ruling themselves while under general Israeli law. Anyone found with any connection with a act of terrorism will know that they and their entire family will be deported into the Sinai Peninsula. Any Gazan wishing to live in the Sinai Peninsula rather than under Israeli rule will be welcomed to do so. It might even be that Israel will provide a financial incentive to leave and resettle elsewhere. Gaza would be reincorporated into Israel and Jews wishing to reside in the area would be welcome as there will be many homes likely to become available providing not all were destroyed. The world will scream but Israel should simply ignore the random noise and pretend that they simply have a bad connection and the noise will die out with time. Perhaps a similar action should be carried out in the Shomron if it proves effective for making Gaza into a pleasant and quiet place to live after the troublesome terrorists are weeded out. This might even work to incorporate all of Israel into a single entity with only the people who wish to reside under Israeli law remaining even if the remainder, after the terrorists have been rooted out, take a severance payment to cover their properties and a bonus to assist them in their new location. Once all is said and done, such a plan would benefit all who remained and those who took payments are likely to also find their happiness, but the world will howl for at least a year. Imagine not being able to shop in Paris for a whole year, could the rich and famous stand it.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 25, 2017

Return of Permanent Limbo in Israel

 

The Trump opportunity has passed at least for the summer. There was the opportunity for a change in Israel and the standoff with the Arab world. The Israeli hesitation over moving the American Embassy to Jerusalem, specifically the warnings of potential violence which, according to Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, was something Israel was not prepared to face at the time forced President Trump to hesitate and at best postpone any actions on the embassy or possibly totally abandoned, time will tell. President Trump was elected President with a Republican platform which had refused to continue with the two state solution as part of its Middle East policy, a first for United States policy since the Oslo Accords were signed in September of 1993. The Republicans managed to do something which apparently far too many Israeli politicians are unprepared to do, reject the paradigm of the two state solution and accept something entirely separate. President Trump has stated even since taking office that he is ready to accept whatever decision is presentable to the individuals, which guarantees that he is open to almost any solution providing it is a workable solution. Between President Trump’s statements, the appointments made concerning Israel and the Republican platform, anything is potentially acceptable once one takes all of these particulars together and weighs all of the possibilities. Unfortunately it appears that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is not prepared to take any alternative before other issues including but not limited to Iran, Hezballah, Islamic State and the stability of the areas surrounding Israel are more secured and balanced. Netanyahu also is most concerned with the Iranian race to produce nuclear weapons and properly fears their finally becoming nuclear weapons capable, or worse, having tested and produced a nuclear weapons arsenal which would permit them to project power and terrorism throughout the entirety of the Middle East and across North Africa threatening Europe and possibly beyond to include the United States, China and even Russia. None of the current main nuclear weapons powers should consider their position secure as the potential for Iran to commit nuclear terrorism must not be considered as impossible or out of the question as such will be a definitive and dangerous possibility once Iran has produced miniaturized nuclear weaponry, something they are predicted to have the capability to produce within the next decade.

 

Another threat which Israel is facing has ties to Iran as well. Syria is allied with Iran and Hezballah which controls Lebanon under Iranian direction to the point that Hezballah commands the Military of Lebanon using their strength in the war in Syria against the Sunni rebels including the Islamic State. This conflagration which has destroyed much if not almost all of Syrian infrastructure outside of a thin strip along the Mediterranean Sea, particularly Latakia where the Russians have their active port facilities in the Mediterranean Sea. The losses being taken by Iran and Hezballah in the Syrian catastrophic civil hostilities have produced much consternation within their respective publics which is demanding good and understandable reasoning as to why they should continue to support such bloodshed. Thusfar they have not been rewarded with results which show that their involvement is of any worth as Syria is beginning to appear as a killing field where they are being asked to sacrifice for no good reason. There is a building demand that Assad be replaced allowing for an end to a seemingly endless and pointless waste of resources. The one means for making the Syrian war to appear to have an acceptable reason, at least in Lebanon as well as much of Iran and vast numbers of the IRGC and Hezballah soldiers and their families would be an expansion of the war to include a full on war with Israel. Such a war against the Zionist entity would make the efforts in Syria appear to have a payoff which would be understood and well received thus rejuvenating the support for the forces which are fighting in Syria and an excuse for the losses. Such a decision requires for Iran, as it is the Iranian leadership, the Mullahs and the Supreme Leader who decide, to decide to take such a move as they will be the ones providing the majority of the military resources should such a war be initiated. The cost of such a war for Syria would be inconsequential as much of the nation is already in ruins and most of the military supplies would be provided by Iran. On the other hand, for Hezballah such a war would be a double sided sword cutting both ways as Lebanon has not been near as torn asunder as has Syria. Any war with Israel which included Hezballah would also endanger much of the infrastructure south of the Litani River and the length of the Bekaa Valley as well as parts of Beirut as well as potentially the Beirut International Airport should it be utilized by Iran to fly in provisions for Hezballah using the airstrips of this airport.

 

Where losing men and munitions fighting in Syria is growing less and less popular, a war with Israel if it should bring destruction raining down within Lebanon itself could backfire. While it is possible to have Hezballah troops only attack Israel from areas such as across the Golan Heights, this would not guarantee that Israeli responses would only be targeting Hezballah forces in Syria and not their rocket stores and command and control headquarters within Syria. This would be a definite possibility as Hezballah has sufficient stores of rockets and missiles provided by Iran and placed under the noses of UNIFIL forces assigned by the United Nations to prevent exactly that buildup, they failed completely. These rockets pose an existential threat to Israel and should Hezballah forces be fighting Israel, even if just across the Golan Heights, Israel could not permit Hezballah to have the opportunity to choose the point at which to introduce these assets into such a conflict. In any conflict with Hezballah, Israel correctly feels that their first and most important targets are the stores of rockets and missiles, their launching facilities and the command and control nexuses in order to remove this threat from their civilians, their infrastructure and the Israeli Defense Forces. Even with the Arrow systems, the Iron Dome and David’s Sling, the well over one-hundred-thousand rockets and missiles held by Hezballah could be launched in such a manner as to overwhelm the Israeli defenses and thus inflict unacceptable damage. Where Israel has exceptional interception capabilities, no such system is one-hundred percent successful and with the numbers of weapons Hezballah alone has, not even counting the potential from Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian stores, Israel would be hard pressed to rely on interception thus only destruction of these threats before they can be utilized is the only answer.

 

There is another set of reasons which might cause Iran to seek a war with Israel, and these include Russia and the United States. The Iranians would probably desire testing President Trump as well as pressing him to take a stand one way or the other concerning supporting Israel. If Iran can show that President Trump supports Israel against them, they could attempt to portray themselves as leading the fight against the Zionists and use any United States support as proof that President Trump was fighting a war against Islam. They would use all the claims by the left and the United States liberal media who claimed that the immigration restraint against seven terror prone nations which were so labeled by the Obama Administration and simply that classification was used by President Trump for his imposing an immigration hold until proper vetting could be arranged for these nations but Iran could use the media claims of that being President Trump starting a war against Islam. This would be blown into a full-fledged campaign by President Trump and the United States in supporting Israel as simply the next step in Trump’s war on Islam which Iran would claim they and Hezballah were fighting for the entire Muslim world and in the name of the Prophet Mohammad. The Iranians could attempt to persuade some, if not all, the Gulf States to join them in this noble war against the evil Zionist entity and then attempt to pull Turkey’s Erdogan into the war using popular pressure to drag him into a war thus using his own program of using anti-Semitism to raise his own support levels. How much success Iran might have in turning the Islamic world against Israel and the United States could be debated but results would need to wait to be seen. Further, Iran could use such a war with Israel as a means of forcing Russia to take sides thus driving a wedge between Russia and the United States or driving a wedge between the United States and Israel as Trump would have to choose which side to inflame should Russia be forced to support Iran against Israel. This could lead to a whole new proxy war in the Middle East pitting the two powers, Russia and the United States on opposing sides and once again drag much, if not all, of the Arab world into the Russian sphere of influence and heighten the risk of embroiling the entire Middle East in a war even broader in scope than the 1948 War where the Arab League attempted to wipe Israel from the map. Now the idea of wiping Israel from the map is a wholly, or is it holy, Iranian concept. Iran has threatened to open a front against Israel as a means of leading the rest of the Islamic world into a general war with Israel and granting themselves with the title of the great leaders of the new Caliphate which is what they would use as their alliance’s title so as to give it an Islamic rallying cry. Iran has already made some inroads with some of the Gulf States much to the chagrin of the Saudi Royals who used to have an iron grip on these states.

 

Iranian Crescent Resulting from an Iranian Surge Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad Connecting Iran to Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon

Iranian Crescent Resulting from an Iranian Surge
Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad Connecting
Iran to Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon

 

Further reasoning behind Iran taking the lead in a charge to try and bring down Israel is to bring themselves to the fore of the Islamic world and to attempt to sell their brand of Shia Islam as the real bold, brave and action center for all Islam and thus start to turn the Islamic world from Sunni to Shiite. Iran has had this dream to form a crescent of Shia states across the heart of the Middle East, their Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon crescent which was looking good until Syria disintegrated. What Iran needs now is some means by which to force much of the Syrian resistance to come across to their side and thus reestablish their hold on most if not all of Syria. Iran might even try to win the Kurdish to their side by sacrificing a small section of northwestern Iran and northern Iraq along with some of northeastern Syria forming a Kurdish nation state if they will ally and take up Shia Islam. This would sandwich the Sunnis in central Iraq placing them in a very precarious position which just might force many to accept Shia Islam in exchange for protection from Islamic State. This would leave Iran with a smaller set of opponents to their taking the lead as the great power in Islam allowing their reestablishment of the power which once was Persia. With such a success and Russian backing, the Iranians might even be able to really crack the back of Sunni Islam and convert the Muslim Brotherhood over to Shia Islam if Iran would work with them to remove President Sisi in Egypt and place the Muslim Brotherhood back into power in Egypt which could be assisted with pressure from the south using their friendly relations with the Sudan as their wedge. From this they could then take control of the Horn of Africa and complete their vanquishing of their opposition in Yemen and now have Saudi Arabia surrounded. All of this is speculation and highly unlikely but this is also seen by the Mullahs as potentially plausible if only they could gain an upper hand along the Gulf States and win over many in the Islamic world through a war with Israel. The one catch there is that any war with Israel promises to be as short as Israel can possibly make it which would very possibly not turn out so well for Hezballah or Lebanon. The only thing that Iran would not be risking is the infrastructure of Syria. Also, getting Russia to work against Israel is iffy at best as Russia and Israel have already been working in cooperation sharing intelligence and Israel warning the Russians before striking at targets in Syria or near the Syrian Lebanese border in the Bekaa Valley. Add to that the news that the missile shot from the sky by an Israeli Arrow System was a Russian made SA-5 missile proving that the Israeli military technology is everything it is cracked up to be and this should make Putin wary of any plans to go against Israel. Iran would be treading dangerously trying to force such a conflict and may find they could lose Russian assistance in Syria and that Russia might just take Western Syrian coastal cities as their own just as they did the Crimea with one difference, Israel would welcome Russia as their new friend in the region and that would leave Iran weaker for their efforts.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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