Beyond the Cusp

July 13, 2015

Iran Deal Still a Step Away

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Apparently everybody who is paying even the slightest attention has figured out the Iranian ploy at the talks which presumably began with the premise of reining in the Iranian nuclear weapons research and imminent production along with reducing stockpiles of uranium and the nuclear related equipment starting with the centrifuges. There was also the necessity of forcing the Iranian leaders to come forth with all information of any military research had been done and experiments or development of related issues such as work on the nuclear trigger, compression sequencing which controls how the detonations are timed to maximize or control yield, and any work on making devices such as using a nuclear weapon for maximizing the EMP feasibility which makes a device which has a maximum Gama ray yield which results in a much lesser explosion but gives a yield of Gama radiation which can destroy all electronic devices for hundreds of miles, or neutron bomb which kills people and other living things but causes minimal damage to buildings and structures, the hydrogen bomb also called a thermonuclear bomb which uses an atomic bomb to trigger a fusion reaction which vastly increases the energy yield making the bomb many magnitudes more destructive and other specialty weapon based on the atomic bomb. Thus far the Iranians have walked back every proposal though initially it appeared that the Iranians were being overly cautious about their pushing and applying pressure to arrive at a better deal but as time approached the deadline for a deal the Iranians began to increase their demands for items to be weakened, removed or severely watered down. When they were still pressing for a number of such alterations to the agreement the United States gave the Iranians the greatest gift with still weeks left before the set deadline for an agreement, they proposed the deadline be pushed six months further into the future, a change in the rules even the Iranians had not pressed believing that the much vaunted and threatened military option was removable from the table and put into use, an action which likely troubled Tehran but after the first extension the Iranians realized there was never going to be anything beyond endless negotiations and they could relax and run the clock out repeatedly with last minute demands which also garnered them the most results and then the extension to a new date. With President Obama desperate for a deal, any deal, the Iranians assumed their position in the catbird seat and began to drive the agreement over the cliff, through the woods and so far beyond reasonable it could only be phrased as they took things beyond the cusp into a place where only the strangest of things occur.

 

Deliberations continued and the six month extensions were coming along just fine and the Iranians had mastered their technique of not even bothering to negotiate for five of the months and then being impossible arrogant demanding several rewrites of entire sections of the agreement when President Obama and team made their next present to the Iranians as they feared an agreement might not be reached before President Obama leaves office, a consideration too horrific for President Obama to contemplate. The extension went from half a year to months to half a month to weeks and on to days and now it appears the deadline is reaching being extended the few hours or even less as team Obama are turning frantic. The deadline is now a permanently flowing target which remains just out of reach just as the end of Iranian demands also never quite ends. It is like an inside joke a friend and I have which fits so I guess this will introduce a new phrase which now fits the negations to a tee, we call it the “one more door” situation which came from playing one of those computer adventure games where there is always that next door or level to reach and it was getting late but one of us, not me, insisted on continuing through the next door thus the phrase, “one more door” syndrome. This is where the negotiations have reached as even when the news gets to the media that an agreement has been completed, then the Iranians bring the next “one more door” alteration, refinement or outright demand. The latest of these was yesterday when an agreement was presumably reached and then the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told reporters from his hotel balcony, according to the Reuters news agency, “We still have got work to do tomorrow. No deal today.” So the deadline pushing continued and on to the next door.

 

This time the demand is another big one; it will push President Obama into that position where he is all but guaranteed to fail, crossing a red line he promised would never be crossed without grave and serious consequences and possibly a deal breaker resulting in the possible use of the military option which, as we have been told ad-nauseum, is still on the table. Yes, we know it is still on the table and are suspecting it is irremovable from said table. We have also heard that the deal they are working on is over a hundred pages in length, probably so Nancy Pelosi will run around screaming that the agreement must be ratified so they can find out what is in it. You have to love politicians of both parties as they make their actions so easy to ridicule just as George H. W. Bush claimed during his campaign a promise that likely guaranteed he would not be reelected when he crossed that red line and caved in after pledging, “No new taxes.” His only defense was to obfuscate the issue claiming he did not allow a “new” tax by just a necessary raising of already existing taxes in order to get his budget passed. That dog did not walk and he lost the election to Bill Clinton and the rest is a confusing mass of Hillary later on.

 

Back on track here. The latest demand from the Iranian side is for the agreement to abrogate and nullify not just the United Nation economic sanctions which were levied for offences having nothing to do with the Iranian nuclear issue but stemmed from Iranian interferences in Lebanon and Syria and against others using proxies such as Hezballah that Iran necessarily needed to be refrained and have her fangs dulled. This brought economic sanctions which Iran has already been given relief from in the agreement but also had imposed weapons sanctions on Iran which was done in part to prevent Russia from selling Iran the S-300 series (NATO names SA-10 Grumble) anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems, considered one of the preeminent anti-missile systems at the time especially effective against cruise missiles and one of the main reasons the United States pressed to prevent the sale by going to the United Nations and forcing the arms embargo onto the Iranians. Now the Iranians are insisting that the arms embargo also be lifted and annulled. The fear now is by lifting the arms embargo which also technically forbid Iran from providing weapons to other entities such as in Yemen currently not to mention Syria and Hezballah, both of which Iran has simply ignored any restrictions and often got around them by paying for weapons ordered presumably by other entities. Now Iran is insisting the arms embargo also be lifted. The way these negotiations are going one might conclude that by the time there is an agreement it will be approaching a thousand pages and the last six or seven hundred pages will constitute items that the United States and Europe give to Iran simply because we all desire to be friends and Iran could be so much more friendly with ‘X,’ ‘Y,’ and ‘Z.’ With the deadlines now so fluid that they simple fold under each suggestion that Iran needs a few more hours, nay, minutes to think up their next insignificant concession and surrender that I would not be surprised if by the time the deal is sealed and signed the United States will have surrendered Guam, Midway and the Hawaiian Islands to Iran in exchange for their good intentions and possibly the Bikini Atolls for testing purposes, why stop at reasonable and even absurd on this agreement and not go to completely ludicrous, after all, you are now entering the Beyond the Cusp Zone, or at least Secretary of State Kerry and his team of folding negotiators have gone there and unfortunately will come out the other side proclaiming while raising a very heavy multi-thousand page agreement overhead, I hold here a small book with President ‘Smiling Cheshire Man’* Rouhani’s signature on it bringing us “Peace in our time.” Can this entire boondoggle get any more ridiculously, incredulously ludicrous? I believe it can though exactly how is beyond my ability to reason or divine, can you? Make your prediction, if you like, as to what may end up being the last demand the Iranians will make that President Obama will grant as when it comes to Iran the President just cannot say no. Perhaps the Americans can restart with a twist the Nancy Regan War on Drugs campaign and start demanding of the White House, “Just say ‘No!’”

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

* See yesterday’s article for definition and picture representing the ‘Smiling Cheshire Man’ reference.

 

 

October 28, 2013

Iranian Nuclear Paradigm Changed

When Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made his speech using a picture of a primitive bomb to describe the then Israeli Red Line concerning the Iranian nuclear program he stated that should the Iranians enrich sufficient uranium to 20% to be able to then further process it and attain sufficient uranium enriched to 90% or more to be able to make an atomic device then Israel would have to act as the threat would then become too great to ignore any longer. That Red Line has blurred out of existence since then as the Iranians have made advances in their centrifuge designs which would now permit them to enrich uranium straight from approximately 3% to the 90% plus for weapons grade uranium. This now means that the debate the Iranians are engaging the P5+1 in the nuclear talks where they are offering to no longer enrich uranium to 20% in exchange for the lifting of the majority of the sanctions, especially the sanction on their oil production and sales is a ruse and a false promise as they know full well that they are no longer constrained to need to have 20% enrichment in order to have breakout capacity to reach nuclear weapons capability. The Iranians are promising to only enrich uranium to 3% to 3.5% and no longer enrich beyond that level because they no longer require the higher level yet President Obama and the European leaders are all pronouncing the great willingness of the Iranians to meet the demands of the Western leadership and that they are showing willingness to prove they truly are not interested in attaining nuclear weapons. Either the Western leaders are being poorly advised, are complete fools or are intentionally ignoring realities because they fear actually taking any stand which might force them to back their positions with actions.

 

It is highly unlikely that the Western leadership really has been so badly mislead and ill-informed that they actually believe that the Iranian offer has any validity at this late date. The Iranians are once again playing the Western leaders for foolishly becoming accomplices in the Iranian drive to set themselves up in a position to be able to produce a series of nuclear devices in rapid order taking less than two months with their first device ready within a matter of mere weeks. The Iranians feel that the western leaders are willing to play the part of fools mainly because they have been given signals by the administration of President Obama that the President wishes to avoid any possibility of a conflict and is willing to turn a blind eye and permit Iran to proceed all the way to nuclear armaments as long as no blame can be cast upon him and the other leaders. President Obama and the other Western leaders will hold up the presentation from Prime Minister Netanyahu from years ago and pretend that by having the Iranians agree to inspections and stopping production of uranium to 20% enrichment a great agreement has been reached and the threat of a nuclear Iran has been successfully avoided. And should you be waiting for the mainstream media to report the reality that this agreement not to enrich uranium to 20% as what it is, an empty promise and a ruse, then you will end up just as poorly informed as will the Western leadership once Iran tests their first nuclear device. What should be the concern is exactly how and where will the Iranians test their first nuclear device. It is not as if their designs have not been proven as they most assuredly have been advised by the North Koreans, Chinese, and the Russians and their designs have likely been tested by these same nations on their simulation computers and proven to be proper designs. Actually needing to explode a nuclear device to test its design has not been a necessity for decades now and the Iranians most certainly have had access to simulation programs with which to test their designs and have even figured out the yields to within 10%.

 

Since they will not need to do an actual test, then the sole reason the Iranians would have for exploding a nuclear device would be to announce their accomplishment to the world. One might safely bet that with their device’s functionality guaranteed that the Iranians will announce their entry into the nuclear armed club by actually deploying a nuclear device either by having terrorists transport the device and detonate it on the desired target or by launching the device and striking one of the nations Iran considers to be their most serious of enemies. This would mean that their target of first resort would be either the United States or Israel. The argument for Iran striking Israel first is that such an attack would go extremely far in heaping prestige upon them throughout the Muslim and Arab worlds. The reason behind striking the United States first is somewhat more complicated but put simply is it would give almost the same prestige and would remove the larger strike back ability if they were to utilize their nuclear device or devices to generate EMP waves destroying much of the United States electronic infrastructure and other electronic controlled systems and items such as communications, many modern vehicles, diesel-electric trains, the entire electronic grid, computer controlled systems and countless other systems. Such an attack might render the United States cut off from even being able to contact their forces outside the country initially providing Iran with the necessary tie to launch numerous other attacks against secondary targets and other countries they may feel require neutralizing. As we have discussed previously, the Iranians have been training for an EMP delivery launch sequence for the past decade and have become quite adept and accomplished at doing so. They have even mastered launching such attacks off of cargo ships and barges such that they could launch such an attack from the oceans just off the coasts of the United States which would negate virtually all of the ballistic missile defenses from being effective at all. Despite this being something that has been discussed in Congress for years and by the military for even longer, the United States remains extremely vulnerable to an EMP attack such as the type Iran has been practicing and mastered the tactical methods in performing such a launch sequence. A nuclear armed Iran is a threat to far more than just Israel and do not let the United States leadership tell you different or ever let them ignore such a dire threat because to ignore such a threat is to invite such an attack. The Greek City States ignored King Leonidas who still took his three hundred Spartans of his personal guard and stood against the threat and held them at Thermopylae facing an enemy numbering close to half a million men for three days. Those three days resulted in saving the entirety of the Greeks from falling and guess who their enemy was. That’s right, it was the Persians, the very same that today we call Iran for reasons that are interesting to research as well but will wait for another article.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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