Beyond the Cusp

October 24, 2019

Abbas Making Threats and Promises

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:53 AM
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Mahmoud Abbas is doing what he does best, threatening Israel and promising imminent elections. These are nothing new to those who spend even the slightest bit of attention to the ongoing war between the Arab Palestinians and Israel. We have lost count on the number of times that elections for the Palestinian Authority (PA) legislative parliament followed by elections for President. We do know how many elections have been held under the authority of the PA since 2005, none. That 2005 PA election was won predominantly by Hamas, just as Mahmoud Abbas, PA representatives and Israel had warned the American administration. It was Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and President George W. Bush who insisted that the election be open for Hamas candidates claiming that such a terrorist entity as Hamas would never receive any number of votes from the Arab Palestinians as they desire peace with Israel, not the destruction of Israel. Well, apparently the Arab Palestinians supported Hamas in far greater numbers than the American experts predicted. There was to be a Presidential election after the parliamentary elections which was cancelled by Mahmoud Abbas as he understood he would lose the election and very possibly his life under a Hamas government. These were the same American officials who pushed the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in order to allow the Arab Palestinians to prove their ability for self-rule. This led directly to Hamas taking over Gaza in a bloody coup after which the same American administrators warned Israel against retaking Gaza, which is odd as retaking Gaza was their solution to all Israeli protestations against the policy moves being pressed by George W. Bush and Condoleezza Rice. There have been previous declarations of intent for elections made by Mahmoud Abbas with every one hitting what are often called obstructions and thus never come to fruition.

 

Abbas made another threat while addressing the United Nations where he warned that the PA will withdraw from all the agreements made with Israel. We can advise that this threat be ignored as it is impossible to break agreements which Abbas and the PA never observed in the first place. The promise to remove the destruction of Israel from the PA Charter is simply another lie reported by the New York Times as that clause remains. As is the usual response to Israeli actions which are well within international law, the Oslo Accords and the rules of conflict, the PA and Mahmoud Abbas immediately threaten Israel and demand the world jump onto their bandwagon against Israel and the Jews. We fully expect most of Europe and the European Union to back Abbas completely as usual. Much of Europe are marching in lockstep with the attempts to destroy the Jewish State. The closest that the PA came to altering and amending their charter was they voted once while President Clinton had observers monitoring their actions so they agreed to appoint a committee at their next meeting in order to rewrite the charter and bring it into compliance with the Oslo Accords. The committee was never formed nor was there ever any real intent to do so. They did enact changes to the charter making it even more difficult to make any changes in the future just in case a moment of weakness mixed with honesty ever took a grip on their leaders. There is one thing that Mahmoud Abbas and the PA can count upon, the New York Times will carry their water for them and report whatever they are told by the PA leadership and refute anything resembling reality which favors Israel.

 

Mahmoud Abbas to President Trump, “May your house be destroyed”

Mahmoud Abbas to President Trump, “May your house be destroyed”

 

There are a couple of things we can count upon in the upcoming future. First, there will be no elections for President and unlikely to be any for their parliament either. What will be the reason this time is anybody’s guess. Second, there will be no change in the animosity and terrorist attacks resulting from their “Pay to Slay” policy enacted by Mahmoud Abbas. Abbas has made crystal clear that if necessary, he would use every cent of funding to pay the terrorists even at the cost of not paying the government employees. That is just one of the items which too many governments, politicians and media elites ignore and refuse to report to the people instead laying all the blame for the problems in the Middle East on Israel. Further, the leaders in the world, both political and in the media, refuse to take the time to translate the speeches made by the PA leadership into English, French, German or any other language they understand. They act as if Arabic is some coded language beyond the ability to be comprehended. This is despite the many various NGO’s which translate much if not all the publications, speeches by PA officials and various news reports and videos. These include but are not limited to Palestinian Media Watch, Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting in America and Middle East Media Research Institute. These and the other NGOs which translate much of the news reporting and political speeches from the entirety of the Middle East and stretching to Northern Africa and provide those who actually wish to know reality the actual truth of where and why the Middle East is as it is. But far too many western politicians and leaders, specifically those on the extreme right and left and a growing number of the left-wing are taking stances opposed to Israel. These are the same individuals who will be turning against the Christians and others who believe in a moral code and specifically who believe in our Creator, Hashem.

 

Many are perplexed by these leftists and their stand against religion and the belief in a Creator. The reason is simple, they desire the world returning to a less civil time with idolatry, abortion, and a two-tiered society with them at the top and the majority all but enslaved as were the serfs in Europe. They want to be rid of the narrow morality of the Bible, both Jewish and Christian, and want to replace the Bible with their ecocentrism and belief that the world would be a perfect place if only there were far fewer humans infecting the planet. Because of their desire to be free of the morality which spawned from Judaism and was the basis for Christianity, they will and have embraced everything which wishes to destroy the Judeo-Christian world. This is the basis for the left and Islam allying and why so many Islamists are being accepted as the new leaders of the left political spectrum. Their first hope is the elimination of Israel replacing it with another Islamist Arab state run by the terror masters of the PA, Hamas or Islamic Jihad. But, for now, let it be stated that they will never desire to know the truth, as the truth would not comport with their desires.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

October 8, 2019

President Trump Mishandles Turkey and Iran

 

Turkish President Erdoğan demanded that the United States move out of his forces way, enabling attacks upon the Kurdish regions in Syria and potentially beyond into Iraq. These were the Kurdish allies in the war against the Islamic State working with American advisors and air support. One would pray that President Trump would stand his ground and deny President Erdoğan’s demands and protect the Kurds who were there against Islamic State with the United States. Instead, President Trump once more showed his excessive reluctance to use any form of force if he can avoid any fighting. President Trump assured Erdoğan that the American forces would be removed enabling his assault on the apparently former American ally Kurds in northern Syria. It was back in last January that President Trump threatened to “devastate Turkey economically” should Turkey attacked the Kurdish forces. At that time, Erdoğan agreed to set up a safe zone where Kurdish forces and civilians would be safe from any Turkish attacks. Instead, Erdoğan plans to use the idea of a safe zone to eradicate the Kurds along the entirety of the southern Turkish border into Syria. We believe that Turkey will be absorbing these lands into Turkey to make good on former Erdoğan promises. Apparently, that agreement is no longer accepted by President Erdoğan as he now desires to attack the Kurds in Syria probably taking over Aleppo if possible and not stopped. The actual reason for these attacks is simply the Turkish leadership regard the Kurds as an enmity and scourge which Turkey insist must be eradicated.

 

President Erdoğan and President Trump

President Erdoğan and President Trump

 

This is simply another all too obvious example that President Trump apparently lacks the intestinal fortitude to take on a fight which can be easily avoided with minimal blowback. Within the United States the bringing of military forces home is often met with great support. This time will be little different simply because the average American, J.Q. Public has little if any knowledge about who the Kurds are, where they reside and probably have forgotten the assistance by the Kurds in the fight with the Islamic State. Most are also unaware that much of the Turkish claims to be fighting the Islamic State (or ISIS) were more often than not fighting Kurdish regions where they killed fighters and civilians alike. One reason which may be forcing this decision by President Trump is since Turkey is a NATO ally, they may have used this alliance when insisting the United States desert the region under Kurdish rule and allow Turkey to do as they please. We predicted just such scenario where allowing Turkey to remain in NATO would force the United States to take on or desert a fight so their NATO ally Turkey could operate as they pleased. Still, President Trump has sent the message that he desires avoiding conflict and depending upon economic and social pressures to influence friend and foe alike.

 

Previous stories made President Trump’s avoidance of taking military action evident and in one case to an adversary in the Middle East. These have not been major stories as there have yet to be any direct repercussions from any of these actions. There was the rumored heated argument between the two men over use of force against Iran. When President Trump and John Bolton parted ways, the Iranian reaction was it simply proved that President Trump was too reluctant to defend anything if it required the use of military force. The Iranians had this idea reinforced when President Trump launched attack air craft after Iran had shot down an expensive United States drone presumably in international airspace and then cancelled the attack calling the aircraft back. This simply further emboldened the Iranians as they believe that Trump will always run and hide rather than actually use force and hold the line. We believe that with President Trump having a strong economic background has assumed a false concept, that everyone is concerned with finances and that this makes them vulnerable to economic pressures. Iran has proven repeatedly over time when sanctions have been placed upon them, they actually do not react as if it really matters until the situation shows signs of becoming volatile within Iran.

 

Because of this reliance on economic pressure to alter Iranian actions, President Trump has relied on ratcheting up sanctions despite their showing absolutely very little effect beyond Iran making false moves in attempts to hide their nuclear activities. But after realizing that President Trump would only use economic pressure and avoid any military actions, they have begun flaunting their breaking of the limits of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) testing the European signatories who also refused to take any actions beyond threatening to act. President Trump has all but ignored the Iranian actions as if after placing more severe sanctions would eventually show progress in persuading Iran to forgo their nuclear weapons research. Meanwhile, as the Mullahs and other Islamist elites are eating well and living large, the Iranian unemployment is spiking, the economy is hurting from the sanctions and the Iranian Rial has crashed forcing prices higher as inflation sets in. The rulers in Iran have shown little concern for the problems their people are suffering because under their Islamic rule, only the desired end result matters and that is the total destruction of the United States, Saudi Arabia, Israel and eventually world conquest spreading Shia Islam to the entire world while maximizing violence and destruction in order to force the return of their messiah. Economic concerns are secondary to their religious commitment to spreading Shia Islam making it the only religion on Earth.

 

The possibility that President Trump will rely solely on economic pressures and avoid any military confrontation even with Iran will leave Iran free to spread their terror and control even further. Iran is already active in Yemen, Syria and Iraq and intending to continue these efforts against Saudi Arabia from within Yemen while threatening Israel using their proxy forces of the IRGC and Hezballah. Iran is also spreading their influence using terrorist forces largely in the Middle East but the real question is where does Iran plan on stopping their warfare. The truth is there is no conquest which would satisfy the Mullahs who honestly believe that Shia Islam will become the only true and allowed religion if they simply continue to follow their interpretation of the Quran. Their religious philosophy is based on the spread of Islam, for them Shia Islam as they consider Sunni Islam as a heretical cult despite ninety-percent of Muslims being Sunni and merely ten-percent being Shia. Their intent is to convert all Sunni Muslims to the real form of Islam, Shiite Islam. After this has been accomplished and they have also conquered all the oil assets in the Middle East, the Iranian leadership is convinced that with time their efforts will succeed in conquering the rest of the world replacing all other religions. Such beliefs allow for the true believers to suffer any hardships as all is reasonable in the pursuit of the promised end results if they simply continue on through all challenges. The leadership in Iran believe that they were chosen by Allah to spread his religion to the whole world. Their belief goes far beyond the world known by Muhammad as it includes the Americas and other lands unknown in his times. Western powers and governments need to address the Islamic threats which have been pressing to establish beachheads within Europe and the Americas. This is currently being pressed by two competing factions, the Iranians and Shia Islam versus the Muslim Brotherhood and Sunni Islam. Some of these efforts have been financed by Qatar backing the Muslim Brotherhood. Such efforts have to be either opposed even if force is required or surrendered to surrendering all free will, specifically religious freedom as under such a world all will be expected to live under totalitarian rule which demands complete compliance under pain of torture or death. That is the reality even if much of the Western world refuses to believe such thinking still exists today.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

October 4, 2019

Another Useless European Gesture

 

According to reports by the BBC, Britain, France, and Germany, the three European nations who took part in the negotiations with Iran have warned Iran that any further breaches of the agreement could force them to act and leave the agreement. Such an eventuality presumably would cause the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Such a move is said to make it possible for the United Nations to reapply economic and other sanctions against Iran as well as the European Union or at least Britain, France and Germany. Some reports have actually appeared anxious worried that such a collapse of the JCPOA would free Iran to restart the entire nuclear program. Additionally, within days Hezballah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened to start sending terrorists into Israeli territory. While interviewed by Lebanon’s Massir magazine, Nasrallah was quoted stating, “The enemy is right now in a defensive position. Once we were constantly on the defensive, now we are threatening the enemy, not the opposite. We will enter the occupied territory of Palestine.” These are two related facts which should be seen as one entirety and not as separate in any way. Hezballah does not act independent of their Iranian masters. This will be escalated and was meant to be a shot across the bow warning Britain, France, and Germany not to withdraw from the JCPOA or be blamed for instigating a war in the Middle East, or should we call it by its real name, yet another war with Iran as the instigator in the Middle East.

 

Hassan Nasrallah

Hassan Nasrallah

 

It has been part of the Iranian world policy, you upset Iran and Hezballah will start a large-scale confrontation with Israel unless Iran is further appeased. Iran wears the JCPOA as an accessory by which it can frighten Britain, France, and Germany, and the European Union into any act of appeasement to what Iran fancies. The Iranian threat has been that they are forced by that eternal evil, ever ignorant and wild cowboy in Washington D.C., President Trump, to bend and even break specific parts of the JCPOA as Iran no longer felt constrained by the treaty if the Americans were no longer constrained from sanctioning Iran. The catch for all involved has been that Iran was never restrained by the JCPOA as we have reported repeatedly (see here, here, here and here). We also have shown that Iran was not even following the weak restrictions they claim that they had agreed upon and only not complying with those extreme measures that the United States claimed were included and that they had never agreed to place them in the agreement. Simply stated, Iran has been producing whatever weapons they desire and researching at full speed further nuclear weapons to add to their arsenals.

 

The real question is not so much are Britain, France, and Germany going to depart the JCPOA, but is whether or not they will join with President Trump in reapplying sanctions on Iran and end their comfy little trade deals by which they were making millions of dollars. One can blame the European powers for trading with Iran, but how else were they going to benefit from the billions of dollars lavished upon Tehran and the Mullahs by President Obama. Should Britain, France, and Germany actually leave the JCPOA, the next big question is over sanctions and whether or not this signals they are willing to work with President Trump. If Britain, France, and Germany are unwilling to work with the United States on sanctioning Iran, then any such announcement concerning leaving the JCPOA is just empty rhetoric. But there would be more than Iran finally coming clean about their continuing to develop nuclear weaponry as fast as they could, there would also be the war Iran wound instigate, if not actually order, against Israel to punish the world for their insult and blaming Britain, France, and Germany for their aggressive actions.

 

As we stated above, Nasrallah does not act without permission and orders from Iran. That is why the threats from Nasrallah were expected and were expressions dictated from Tehran. Just to complete the quotes, Nasrallah further stated, “The balance has changed due to the Iranian revolution’s victory, which was begun by the blessed imam Khomeini and is continued by the blessed imam Khamenei. Today we have much better intelligence regarding what the Zionist entity is doing than we had in the past, from official sources as well as from unofficial sources.” This overt threat is actually a restating of the Hezballah threats and claims that they could take back the Galilee from her occupation whenever they decided the time had come. This threat needs also to be taken along with the recent Hezballah claims that stated, “Once we said that we could strike targets south of Haifa. Today, we can say that if Israel has sites south of Eilat, then we can also hit them. All of Israel is under the range of our missiles.” All of this bluster just because of the threat by European powers to leave a treaty which few if any of the participants ever intended keeping. Iran, under the JCPOA presumably was inspecting their own military installations and were to report any breaching of the agreement. Really? Who expected that to work at all?

 

Iran has treated the JCPOA as the fig leaf behind which their nuclear program never even felt a hiccup as was proven when Israel lifted tons of evidence from their secure Tehran bunker in one evening and transported it all to Israel (see image below). These were the final information required by President Trump to pull he United States from the JCPOA and reapply sanctions on Iran in an effort to have them come to the table and negotiate a new deal. Iran does not desire a new deal; they prefer the one they have and will wait for a new President of the United States to be elected and be reasonable with their needs. Should the three European powers also leave the agreement, it never was an actual treaty, then Iran could be facing the reapplication of the sanctions by Europe which would actually cause Tehran some serious headaches. The serious nature with which Iran has reacted with their having ordered a Hezballah threat on Israel is all the proof needed to assess the nature and threat on the JCPOA.

 

Netanyahu Displaying Iranian Nuclear Program Files Stolen from Tehran Bunker

Netanyahu Displaying Iranian Nuclear Program Files Stolen from Tehran Bunker

 

Whether or not Israel should take the Nasrallah threat to heart and possibly take steps to respond will be determined by any information Israel has been able to garner. Over the last half a decade, Nasrallah was largely ignored as Hezballah was up to their ears in the Iranian backed wars in Syria and Yemen. There have been reports that many of the Hezballah operatives have since returned to Lebanon from their efforts supporting Iran. These operatives sent to Yemen and across the border to Syria were presumed to be training more than actually fighting yet, from intercepted casualty reports, the Hezballah members were performing much more than training than was admitted. These threats from Nasrallah should be taken seriously but tempered with intelligence of Hezballah movements of assets and terrorists placing them such that crossing the border appears likely. Israeli intelligence and aerial surveillance should take particular attention to any readying of Hezballah missiles and rockets. Such intelligence should be critically analyzed with specific attention to their Scud rockets and MLRV* units. The former, and its ilk, comprise the ability for Hezballah to strike at Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and the Dimona complex which would be primary targets in the initial round should they be seriously planning an assault upon the north. The MLRV with their rapid multiple rocket barrage capabilities is primarily used in supporting advancing forces by forcing the enemy to take cover and remain buttoned-up thus limiting their vision and ability to detect any attack or infiltration.

 

When it comes to terrorists, we are looking more at infiltration which could come from almost any front or direction. The most obvious would be across the fenced Lebanon border with Israel or, using the Syrian confrontation, entry could be attempted along the Golan Heights. Another option would be to enter through Gaza where allies such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad might assist or their people might carry out attacks for Hezballah to force a two-front confrontation upon Israel. The final entry points would be along the Israeli eastern lands bordering Jordan or the PLO/PA region west of the Jordan River. Israel will probably place their forces already in these positions to heighten awareness and be particularly sensitive to potential terror infiltrations. Israel might also redouble efforts at detecting and destroying tunnels under her borders to facilitate just such operations. The world need realize that this Hezballah threat is actually a threat coming directly from Tehran and should put most of Europe on notice that they have problems within their own countries which lie openly vulnerable to Iranian terror forces of the IRGC or Hezballah. This was not a threat made upon Israel for her presumed occupation of the Galilee but a warning to the world that moves made against Iran could be answered by terrorist forces in Lebanon as well as Iraq, Yemen and other supportive places. Europe should also take the precaution of seeking out any Iranian operatives who probably entered Europe as part of the waves of Middle Eastern and North African “refugees” they foolishly permitted entry. Many of the entering refugees were actually terror operatives and as Iran has the largest amount of control over these terrorists, even more than the Muslim Brotherhood, they could be activated and given targets within Europe to strike. Such strikes by terror operatives would target high profile locations very likely also tourist hot spots with intent to harm as many as possible. Israel is prepared largely while Europe is largely vulnerable. Israel will tread carefully until it is time to act, Europe would be best served to move with bluster intended to maximize the appearance of readiness. One last tip, the terrorists in Europe are most likely controlled through the IRGC or by Hezballah which means that your Lebanese immigrants just might be Hezballah plants. Be well advised Europe, after Israel you are the most inviting of targets along with the United States with a difference, Europe is far closer to their bases in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

*MLRV = Multiple Launch Rocket Vehicle

 

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