Beyond the Cusp

October 11, 2019

Israeli Position Becoming More Precarious

 

One would be inclined to believe that the Israeli position in her Middle Eastern neighborhood could become even more at risk, but it just might real soon. First, allow us to make a risk assessment of her current troubles. To her north, in Lebanon, Israel faces the largest terrorist army in the world in Hezballah. Hassan Nasrallah leads a sizeable military which has been provided for quite adequately by Iran who has armed them with over one-hundred-fifty-thousand missiles and rockets. A fair proportion of these rockets and missiles are capable of reaching anywhere within Israel and beyond even with the capability of striking into Saudi Arabia or even Cairo in Egypt. Iran attempted to provide new targeting capabilities turning rockets into guided missiles but were not as successful as Iran had hoped. Israeli timely air strikes destroyed many of these guidance packages before they reached their destination. Still, many hundreds, if not thousands, of the most dangerous and destructive rockets were transformed into guided missiles capable of striking targets with an accuracy of under ten feet. These are the projectiles carrying the largest warheads and capable of greater distance making all of the central Tel Aviv greater metropolitan region well within the range of these more accurate weapons. The Dimona complex and reactor are also targeted as very likely is Jerusalem, Beersheva, Eilat or anywhere else within Israel they wish to target. These weapons are just the start of Hezballah and their threat posed and would be the initiating strike, should they be instructed to attack Israel.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

Should Hezballah be instructed to distract international attention from any undue attention to Iranian activities, Israel will be attacked from Lebanon and even possibly Syria awaiting the Israeli response. One such was the recent call by European nations who were signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, to review very probable infractions by Iran by continuing their nuclear program. Germany, France and Britain warned Iran of their intention to withdraw from the agreement should Iran continue to transgress into areas which the JCPOA forbids. As their actions have yet to pose a real threat to Iran, all is quiet. Should this or any other difficulty begin to make the world close in on Iran, you can expect they will try to get out of the limelight by starting a war with Israel using Hezballah as their weapons of choice. Israel would need to react almost instantly should such a conflict break out as Hezballah is capable of firing thousands of rockets and missiles into Israel every day until they are stopped. This could be taken care of by the Israeli Air Force within thirty-six hours. This still means that all of Israel would be vulnerable to these attacks for a day and a half, something which really would try the Israeli people’s nerves. In our region the attacks would largely be the smaller rockets in greater numbers but unguided, something which is less than encouraging as the numbers would translate into some major damage to the most northern Israeli cities. The real threat comes from the largest payloads and longer ranged articles in the Hezballah arsenal as many of these have been modified with the most advanced targeting packages. These could be used to target vital infrastructure as well as the heart of Tel Aviv and the numerous skyscrapers within that area. Were one of these struck and caused to collapse in the initial strikes, this would result in many thousands of deaths.

 

These very same missiles could also target Jerusalem and the Dimona complex. The Dimona research reactor being struck would spread radioactive contamination over a large region of the Negev potentially reaching the populated regions around Beersheva. In Jerusalem there is always the danger of numerous holy sites being struck, whether intentionally or through random chance with unguided rockets. Hezballah could also strike at Israeli airfields, both military and civilian, which could delay getting all strike aircraft into the air before being required to repair runways. Hezballah would also most certainly strike at communications and command and control centers in their effort to decapitate the military by isolating each unit from command and leaving aircraft without any ground control making takeoffs and landings more treacherous. Finally, Hezballah has set up tank traps and extensive tunnels and bunkers throughout the region south of the Litany River. Hezballah groups are able to move throughout this region without being required to break above the surface as their tunnel system is that extensive. These tunnels and fortified positions are often placed under residential areas with launch and ambush positions often placed within private homes. When fighting, Hezballah forces the residents to remain in their homes while they use them to launch rockets, missiles and mortars into Israel and when ambushing Israel Defense Force troops should Israel be required to enter Lebanon to end the attacks. There is a second alternative where Israel simply unleashes the hounds of war and completely blankets southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley in an effort to destroying the Hezballah war machine. Should Hezballah insist that the Lebanese military come to their aid against Israel and any, or many, of their units join in attacking or fighting Israeli forces, then it can be expected that the targeting within Lebanon would be broadened to address the new threats. The Lebanese military had modern equipment provided by the United States, including Abrams Main Battle Tanks, and Russia, including attack helicopters. Such a conflict could easily spread across with attacks coming from within Syria as the IRGC would take such an opportunity to also attack Israel.

 

The IRGC is best described as the Iranian alternative military with close, if not greater, arrays of weapons compared to their formal military. The IRGC is the only military force to be recognized as a terrorist entity and is utilized by Iran to spread terrorist efforts to anywhere on the globe as well as fighting the foreign wars for Iran but providing a small amount of deniability of their actions by the Iranian government. IRGC forces can have uniforms but more often fight dressed as civilians, well-armed civilians. This permits simply taking the weapons of any killed fighter and then inviting the media to come witness the barbarity of Israel by murdering innocent “civilians,” the same “civilians” who were an ambush team which was overrun a short time previous before their identity change from active fighters to deceased civilians. This same tactic is utilized by Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. This time we hope that Israel minimizes the need for IDF ground troops entering into Lebanon where they would face ambush, potentially at every turn, and numerous casualties would start mounting. It would be preferable for Israel to use almost solely air power and ground-to-ground missiles to decimate all that belongs to Hezballah. A nice finishing touch might be to use a deep penetrator warhead to strike and destroy Hassan Nasrallah and the bunker in which he hides. IRGC units have also been the target of Israeli strikes at their provisions, particularly their missiles and heavy weapons, and also striking any position used to launch attacks on Israel including drone control facilities. Both IRGC and Hezballah forces are engaged in the Syrian civil war and in the coup still fighting in Yemen, the two silent wars as they do not include Israel, thus they are not newsworthy as Israel has been careful in choosing and unbelievably accurate in their strikes on these two terror armies attempting to limit their most dangerous capabilities. Thus far, the IRGC has been restricted to using only their ground troops. This could change at any point with their air force being brought into the fight placing them as far as eastern Iraq presumably to protect them from any Israeli attacks. Such an eventuality if used against Israel would broaden any such war to include Iraq and Iran as viable potential targets.

 

That was just the threats originating in Lebanon and Syria. To the south, Israel faces another dual threat under Iranian control and influence. These are Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the latter simply another Iranian controlled terrorist group and Hamas simply heavily influenced by Iranian desires. Here too the main threats are rockets. Hamas has a rocket they call the Jerusalem rocket simply because the M-75 Ballistic Missile can reach that distance (pictured below). As Israel enforces a blockade of Gaza for the inspection of goods to assure that no weaponry or other implements of war reaching Gaza and Hamas and Islamic Jihad, this has obviously prevented the retrofitting of their rockets with guidance systems making them guided missiles as such systems would be found and prevented from reaching the terrorists. This could potentially have dire results as Jerusalem is about the far edge of the capability of their M-75 rocket, their M-75 unguided rocket. This presents the ultimate irony, the M-75 when fired at Jerusalem is simply pointed in that direction and launched for maximum distance simply to assure reaching Jerusalem, could result in destroying the Dome of the Rock, the al-Aqsa Mosque or both. Needless to point out that Israel would be initially blamed and the media would run with that story for a week or so before printing a retraction and correction somewhere around page C-33 and nowhere near the front page as were the headlines which blamed Israel. Unfortunately, it takes time to gather the intelligence and place the blame on the true culprits. This is another capability which the Iron Dome can and does provide, the computed trajectory of rockets, missiles, mortars and artillery. Once the real data will have been gathered, the article covering the reality where Israel is not the guilty party but rather the Islamic forces which fired the rocket which destroyed precious Islamic sites in Jerusalem will be right next to their retraction and correction. Hamas and Islamic Jihad cooperate to such an extent that they can be treated as a single entity with Hamas the primary force as they are the Gazan government. Should Gaza initiate attacks on Israel in any large number, the IDF will respond in kind and going no further. The retaliatory strikes by Israel often target empty buildings around two or three o’clock in the predawn hours of the morning. Once more, there is no violence or any attacks which are newsworthy until Israel retaliates, a retaliation which the media will transform into the initiating attack only mentioning the earlier terror attacks on Israel in the next to the last paragraph. It should be noted that Hezballah has promised to join any war between Israel and Gaza and Islamic Jihad has responded with their intention to join any war where Hezballah in Lebanon are fighting Israel. They worded their statements implying that Israel was the aggressor despite knowing that such is not the case.

 

Monument for the M-75 Ballistic Missile Named the Jerusalem Rocket

Monument for the M-75 Ballistic Missile Named the Jerusalem Rocket

 

Fortunately, the main problem for Israel being caused by the Palestinian Authority (PA) is their paying terrorists or their surviving family with cash payments for life which are greatly more significant than even the PA government, and security personnel are paid a lesser salary than these terrorists. This offer of cash for murdering Israelis, they call it murdering Zionists or Jews, has become a career choice as should you murder one Israeli and then be arrested, you will serve your sentence in a country club atmosphere with more benefits than many Israelis receive from the government. These attacks are largely stabbings and vehicular rammings of pedestrian traffic. The PA, under both Yasser Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas, has rejected every peace proposal by which any land is placed under Jewish rule allowing Israel to survive as is. Their entire effort is performed with the intent of completely destroying Israel. Their main effort is on the international political front where they seek recognition of the PA as a national government and accepting the PA definition of their borders. The PA views their borders as being the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, or more simply, all of Israel. The main reason that there is any semblance of quiet on this front is due to the presence of IDF throughout much of the region and good intelligence work by the Shin Bet and others and because to their east, Jordan has a cold peace with Israel which they prefer not to endanger for reasons which will become clear. The turmoil emanating from the PA will start upon the death of Abbas as he has not been able to groom an acceptable replacement as Arafat had prepared him. But even this is but a minor threat as the PA does not have sufficient strength to wield in any such fight. The rest of the southern border is with Egypt and except for illegal entrants and occasional criminal violence, this border is quiet and problems actually are addressed by Egypt rarely requiring any assistance from Israel.

 

Palestinian Textbook Maps depicting Palestine as replacing Israel, not sharing the land in peace and security as the Europeans and the rest of the West insist to misrepresent

 

The eastern border along the Jordan River and its natural barrier called the Jordan River Valley has been the best-behaved border. Yes, occasional terrorists are out of Jordan and were given their target by the PA and not anyone in Jordan. Jordan is the remaining Hashemite kingdom which was set up by the British after World War I with the other having been Iraq where the monarch was removed in a coup. The Jordanian King, Abdullah II, has sufficient control currently using his military and Bedouin Tribes to rule over the approaching eighty-percent of the population being Arab Palestinians. Jordan is the Arab Palestinians country which was made by cutting 78% of the lands east of the Jordan River to the border with Iraq from the intended Jewish State in order to gift it to one of the Hashemite sons of King Faisal (the remaining 22% was left to form Israel). Under King Abdullah II, there has been peace, or at least tranquility, since the treaty was signed in 1994. But there are some serious rumblings out of Jordan as their economy is suffering poor management as the country attempts to care for many millions of Syrian refugees who fled the country escaping the civil war. The economic drain is being felt throughout the kingdom and this has made many of the residents less than enamored at this situation. Many complain and blame their problems on economic mismanagement and an over-reliance on international aid which has led to the current situation. Rioting in the major cities is almost constant, but the King has bigger problems at the moment. Jordanian Bedouin tribes constitute the backbone of the regime and this is starting to faulter. Bani Hassan tribe has taken an adversarial role with the king releasing an official statement listing their concerns demanding they be addressed immediately. The Bani Abbad and Bani Hamida tribes are supportive of these efforts making matters even more serious.

 

So, what would be the result if King Abdullah II abdicated his throne leaving Jordan without any head for the government? Jordan does have a parliament which would continue to operate after the King leaves, but the question then is for how long. Not all of the problems are the fault of the King as he has given much of his power to the legislature, but he retained the final veto power should he desire its use. The problem would begin with an election where either the Muslim Brotherhood or Iran using largely IRGC units would take control turning the country into another terror base from which to launch attacks on Israelis. One can bet that the Iranians will gain a large influence even if they are not the rulers, Iran will gain influence amongst the populace and deal with Israel sending terrorists into Israel along her eastern border. Such an eventuality would not bode well for Israel. Israel already has factories within Jordan providing good jobs. These enterprise zones run by Israeli companies are a good start but cannot become the main provider of jobs in Jordan. Should the Kingdom collapse, these Israeli firms would probably exit bolting back to Israel. The terror situation would, at some point, bring about a crisis which would threaten the peace potentially ending the blissful relationship previously shared. There is another threat which might come to pass which would worsen the tensions in the Middle East, far beyond just Israel. Iran would woo the Jordanians, particularly their leadership. They would offer arms and rocket and missile systems. The buildup in Jordan would easily outpace that which happened with Hezballah in Lebanon. Iran would really love to have Jordan in their pocket as they border nearly the length of the northern border of Saudi Arabia as well as the eastern border of Israel. Iran recently claimed they have attained the ability to wipe Israel from the map. This is almost a tacit statement announcing their having developed a deliverable thermo-nuclear warhead with which they could wipe out much of the Israelis residing in the greater Tel Aviv region. There is also vital infrastructure which supports most of Israel. Iran would have Israel all but surrounded should they gain control in Jordan. There would be further dangers such as an actual threat of declared war breaking out either with Israel or Saudi Arabia. The initial difficulty for Israel should the Jordanian monarch be dethroned will be increased terrorism with the terrorist using everything in the armory including nuclear weapons should they have the need.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

September 19, 2019

Trump, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel

 

Mark Langfan wrote a very insightful article reflecting on what the lasting effects of President Trump’s firing of John Bolton and how this could lead to Trump not being reelected. Of course, the final repercussions from letting John Bolton go will play out in ways that none of us will likely get completely correct. As Mr. Langfan points out, with Bolton out of the administration, the voice for stronger actions even unto direct attacks on Iran has been silenced. This is not to infer that there are no other voices purporting for stronger reactions to Iranian belligerent actions. We had pointed out that there was an uneasy relationship between President Trump and his advisor John Bolton as Trump prefers to find economic solutions rather than resorting to using the military and Bolton was far more militaristic having no qualms about resorting to force. We had mentioned reports of heated arguments between the two men as their views were about as far apart and different as possible. But Mr. Langfan was correct in stating that John Bolton served a potentially precious purpose, he was the stick always in the ready countering the carrot dangling Trump making any implied Trump threats of using force more credible. Whether Mr. Langfan’s conclusion that the Iranian attack on the Saudi oil fields and that we can expect more Iranian perfidy and violent attacks on Saudi Arabia may or may not come to fruition depending on numerous factors which we will try and explore.

 

There are credible rumors that after the elections in Israel, and assuming that a government is formed led by incumbent Bibi Netanyahu, President Trump will propose a mutual defense pact between Israel and the United States. The problem is that should Prime Minister Netanyahu be able to form the next Israeli government, he would be predisposed towards accepting such an agreement. Anyone reading our last article would likely see some of the plethora of reasons for Israel to refuse such an offer. We understand that such a position would be difficult to defend by most standards, but here goes. We have one reason and only require this one reason. We have no problem forging agreements with supportive nations for the supply of military hardware, weapons, aircraft, armor, ammunition and other munitions and bombs but we would draw the line on allowing a single soldier from any other nation coming to fight alongside our IDF. The reason is relatively obvious to anyone who has felt the sting of Judeophobia (anti-Semitism). We hold a fear that should American young people come and fight to aid Israel should a war, or should we say when a war breaks out, when any of these young soldiers should be killed, it would be the quickest way of turning great numbers of current Israeli supporters into rabid Israel haters and possibly having them become Judeophobic. The idea of sacrificing good Christian young men and women in a war to save the Jewish State, which would be seen as Christians being sacrificed for the Jews, would turn many average Americans against Israel, against the Jewish State. This is true for the United States and would stand true for any nation sacrificing their young military men and women for Israel or in any other foreign war. Citizens of most nations fully understand using their military youth in a necessary conflict to protect their nation and people but such understanding wanes rapidly when those sacrifices are being made for other people and nations. Add in that in this case the nation would be the Jewish State and the waning would become an abatement leaving a mere trickle of support for aiding Israel. Israel must be prepared to defend herself by herself with as little reliance on outside forces, specifically troops, coming to their aid. Materials are one thing and people, especially young people who make up the fighting forces, facing possible death and some actually being killed in such a war would increase anti-Israel and Judeophobic reactions swaying the majority of the people to decry such activities. This is a situation which Israel would be advised to take every possible measure for self-dependence and never allow non-Israelis from ever fighting in an Israeli war and especially being injured, or worse killed. For this reason, amongst others, Bibi Netanyahu or any other Israeli Prime Minister should refuse to agree to any mutual defense agreement no matter which nation might be offering such.

 

Another reason not to enter such an agreement is even more obvious, Israel also needs to avoid ever being dragged into a conflict, especially one in the Middle East or Northern Africa, the Arab and Islamic world, through any treaty as the IDF is not as large an army as those of other nations around the world. According to Global Fire Power, the IDF ranks as the seventeenth most powerful military, a ranking largely due to the advanced weaponry, especially defensive weaponry such as the Iron Dome and other anti-missile systems and not their number of troops. This ranking rates Turkey, Egypt, Iran and Pakistan all ranked as more powerful militaries. When it comes to active duty personnel, Israel does not even rank in the top twenty-five coming in at around twenty-eighth in the world with numerous Arab and Islamic nations with far larger numbers of active duty personnel. Israel would become excessively vulnerable were she required to station numbers of her active duty troops outside the country. That is an easily observed part of the reality in which Israel lives.

 

Should Iran actually be emboldened by the departure of John Bolton, this would initially likely take the form, as Mr. Langfan predicted, of attacks on Saudi Arabian assets such as the recent attack with drones on their oil fields relatively close to Iran. Targets within Saudi Arabia have the advantage of allowing Iran to offer disclaimers of their involvement pressing other potential entities to be responsible. Some of these would include but not be limited to claiming the attacks were the work of the Houthis in Yemen, allied forces from Iraq where Iran can pretend they were acting independently as well as blaming non-state actors such as Hezballah, the IRGC, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other Iranian operative groups. Mr. Langfan left out other potential targets which Iran might attack via their proxies such as Egypt or Israel amongst others. Currently, there are some low-level altercation and skirmishes along both the northern and southern borders of Israel. These are utilizing Hezballah in the north supported by IRGC forces and Iranian provided rockets and missiles, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the south out of Gaza using rockets and incendiary and high explosive balloons, kites and drones being used to turn much of southern Israel into a smoldering wasteland. There will also be the potential for increased terrorism anywhere around the world driven by Iran through their proxies some of which train and operate out of the tri-border region in South America. Iran might even decide to be so bold as to attack the United States indirectly through their international terror network. The only question is how far will Iran go in taking risks of having the United States retaliate. Even were the United States able to discover Iranian involvement in such attacks, their response would be measured and relatively proportional. This is one position which President Trump has mentioned, the concept that military actions need to be measured and proportional to the acts which precipitated such a response. This is a modern concept which has infected the developed world paralleling their belief that the natural state of the world is to be at peace in order to develop the economies and all interactions between nations would be related to trade. Apparently, they have a very warped view of history which is not realistic and may be a potential disaster waiting to happen. Should Iran start to wage a low-grade terror and indirect attack methodologies, the United States would eventually reach a point where such could no longer be ignored, especially as the media would be taunting President Trump for his inaction and timidity in the face of what they would call an obvious war. Further, should the United States be dragged into a war in the Middle East, the last thing Israel needs is to have a mutual defense treaty potentially dragging them into the conflict. But Israel also will have their potential difficulties with an emboldened Iran.

 

Hezballah Rocket Arsenal

 

Israel has Iranian proxies in Gaza with Hamas and Islamic Jihad and in Lebanon and southeastern Syria with Hezballah, the IRGC and even Iranian military forces. Of the two threats, Hezballah is probably the greater one with potentially over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles of various sizes and warheads including numerous which are capable of striking anywhere in Israel and even beyond (see table above). Further, both Hezballah and Islamic Jihad, which will drag Hamas along with them, have promised to provide the other a second front against Israel should hostilities break out. This would include coordinated attacks potentially coming from Lebanon, out of Gaza in the south and along the Golan Heights attacking from Syria as Iran has Israel within their or their proxies’ sights almost circling the tiny Jewish State. Then there is always the final threat Israel could likely face, and that is Iran itself. Iran has numerous rockets and missiles which can reach Israel launched from Iran or Iraq as shorter-range weapons could be launched from Iraq which is much closer to Israel not to mention Iran could launch from within Syria as they have done on several occasions in the recent past. Currently, Hezballah has things remaining at a low boil, but this could change without notice should Iran so choose. Israel would be pressed too close to her limit were Iran to actively enter into hostilities. The fear then would be whether Iran would be launching weapons of mass destruction such as nerve agents, biological agents or possibly nuclear warheads, the greatest of their potential threats whether they are atomic bombs of thermonuclear weapons with the difference being scale. Any Iranian attack on Israel which would be directly traceable to them would require Israel to respond well outside of President Trump’s concept of proportionality. This would be one time when that charge could be leveled against Israel and we would probably simply plead guilty and continue as we are talking the survival of the nation and nothing less.

 

In summation, Israel has sufficient troubles without signing onto a mutual defense pact with the United States. We are unsure that the United States would respond honoring such a treaty made while President Trump is in office after he leaves office and even more so should the Democrats take the White House. Further, President Trump may have emboldened Iran which may have been demonstrated by the recent attack on the Saudi oil fields. This could lead quickly to escalations throughout the Middle East and potentially the world of both terrorism and further potential wars. For those who did not yet read the article by Mark Langfan linked to at the top of the article, we can only advise giving it a perusal. And please allow us to end with one last new thought, Iranian leadership believes that they are the ones who are chosen to rule the world and spread their version of Shia Islam until they have converted the entire population of the planet while beheading those who refuse to convert. This includes bringing the world to the verge of extinction setting much of it in the flames of destruction, nuclear if necessary being broadly used, so as to force the arrival of their chosen messiah. Does this sound eerily familiar? This has been the driving force of the worst conflagrations in our history and this promises to make them all seem like small skirmishes by the time they are done.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 13, 2019

Threats of Another Great War

 

History, one would think, has taught humankind numerous lessons amongst which is never underestimate nor ignore the threats from tyrants, particularly tyrants who have been building arsenals and beefed-up militaries. One such modern-day tyrant is the Iranian Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei. He has made a few threats this past decade which should have received far more attention than they have. He has threatened Israel with annihilation, stated that he can and probably will destroy the United States, will attack Israel should the United States do anything to harm Iran, claimed that he was the chosen of Allah to cure the world of the cancer that is Israel and any number of other equally absurd claims of destruction should he be displeased by this, that or the other. We realize that the above are not direct quotes and really are not going to be bothered to find his direct words and are going to settle for the amalgam of quotes by him and any number of underlings who do not speak unless approved by the Supreme Leader and Grand Ayatollah. We guess we should be glad that, to the best of our recollection, not claimed to be the Defender of the Faithful. Much of the bluster coming from Iran would make for a perfect spoofing movie of a tinpot dictator of some insignificant place which never has, does or ever will perform great deeds yet he speaks demanding to be treated as if he actually could rule the world. The problem is Iran is not a small nation, has a pair of sizable militaries, one the Iranian Army and the other the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which has an offshoot called the Niruyeh Moghavemat Basij, often simply called the Basij Militia. This last group, the Basij, are mostly a home-front fighting unit used to keep order, threaten any groups or persons considered potential threats to the Supreme Leader or the government and have been deployed to put down demonstrations and anything else which may require “special attentions” for which this group is most suited. The IRGC also has a specific tasking which the Iranian Army does not have and is otherwise simply a second military with all the branches of the regular Army, Air Force and Navy. This task is to spread Shia Islam to the world as well as spread terrorism to anywhere on earth which are deemed to require special attention while providing special training and armaments to the terrorist groups who are aligned and controlled by Iran. Amongst these terrorist groups are Hezballah, Islamic Jihad, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen. The Houthis will attack Saudi Arabia mostly through launching missiles and rockets at Riyadh, the Saudi Capital City. Hezballah is almost a third military army under Iranian command who currently are assisting the forces of Bashir al-Assad along with IRGC forces, assisting the Houthis in Yemen, a training center located at the Tri-border region at the junction of Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil plus support for cells awaiting their special orders to attack and destroy vital and vulnerable locations near which they have been placed, presumably with many such cells placed within the United States. This is just a taste of the presumed Iranian threats and assesses their ability to carry such out.

 

We hear much talk about bringing to an end the Iranian efforts to produce nuclear weapons. This hoax is centered around the mistaken idea that Iran has not yet reached the technical level required for producing nuclear weapons. Where this may prove to be a valid assessment of the Iranian drive to produce thermonuclear weapons (commonly referred to as the hydrogen bomb or fusion bomb) as these weapons require highly accurate machining with special materials as well as the production of deuterium and tritium, two isotopes of hydrogen, it is not likely true about fission bomb or simply nuclear bomb or warhead. The main assumption is that Iran has been unable, according to the oft wrong experts, to miniaturize their bombs such that they can be fit atop their ballistic missiles. Even were we to take the pessimistic assumptions that Iran has not produced a ballistic missile deliverable nuclear weapon and that Iran has only been working on nuclear weapons since the mid 1990’s, this would mean that Iran has been working at making a nuclear weapon without success despite the theory, schematics and detailed instructions on how both bombs were designed and produced and detonated over Hiroshima and Nagasaki are readily available on the Internet and in some physics books and other sources. Additionally, with little or no source other than the brains behind the Manhattan Project, the United States built their nuclear bombs in under four years and we are to believe that with twenty-plus years and uranium mines within their borders the Iranians have been unable to produce nuclear weapons. This is much behind our stating that we are quite certain that Iran has nuclear weapons, has miniaturized these weapons for mounting atop their ballistic missiles and very likely have already figured out the design for a miniaturized thermonuclear warhead. This is what we expect is behind the Iranian claim that they could destroy an entire carrier group with a single missile. Then again, they may be referring to their EMP device with which they could blind, at least temporarily, an entire carrier group but they would then require fast boats and anti-ship missiles with which to strike at the blinded and disarmed ships. There are some trusted old-style weapons on these ships which would not be affected by an EMP device such as the 50cal. Machine gun. That is not a replacement for the more advanced electronic systems, but it is still a very effective weapon in skilled hands. This article by Mark Langfan describes one scenario of the potential war with Iran along with evidence that this could happen sooner rather than later.

 

Why all of this presumably so suddenly and with little warning? Well, because it is not suddenly and there have been numerous warnings which have been all but ignored by the Western media. Their claim is that by playing these threats down, they are helping to prevent them from occurring because nothing can happen if the media does not cover the story. This was their attitude when Israel was recently (last week) attacked from Gaza with over seven-hundred rockets which cost Israel four souls with almost one-hundred-fifty people injured or treated for shock. Numerous of these rockets struck the ground with too many landing within the confines of inhabited areas. The vast majority of the rockets tracked to have trajectories bringing them within populated areas were intercepted by the Israeli Iron Dome system with each interception costing a minimum of fifty-thousand dollars, the cost of each individual anti-missile-missile. This latest barrage of rockets upon southern Israel was initiated by Islamic Jihad which means Iran as they do not make breakfast until Tehran tells them what to prepare. This brings us to the threat that should the United States engage targets within Iran or of any of the Iranian military vessels, then Iran will wipe out Israel. Fortunately for the United States, they have not threatened to destroy the United States should Israel attack any of their various military and terrorist units. Many experts have claimed that Iran is not capable of destroying Israel unless they were to resort to using nuclear weapons, which the experts love to point out that Iran has been incapable of producing a nuclear weapon. The horrific truth is that Iran has been regularly attacking Israel either from the north with Hezballah or from the south with both Islamic Jihad and Hamas, the sources of the seven-hundred rockets recently. The Iranian threat to wipe Israel off the map would most likely be referring to having Islamic Jihad and Hamas initiate hostilities refusing all efforts to restore peace forcing an Israel ground attack and then unleashing Hezballah complete with an invasion attempt backed by rocket artillery. These attacks could be further assisted by the IRGC and al-Quds forces staged in Syria. Only when Israel survives and possibly begins to rout these attackers would Iran resort to directly attacking Israel. The fear is that in such a scenario that Iran would launch their rockets and missiles with some having nuclear and chemical warheads, especially chemical warheads on anything launched from within Syria. What has prevented Iran from directly attacking Israel from their own soil is that while these missiles are taking flight, Israel would simply have to believe that many would have nuclear and chemical warheads and reply with nuclear tipped ballistic missiles of her own. Such is what would constitute an initial reaction to any engagement between Iran and the United States, simply because no matter which side engaged the other first or committed an incident which produce a confrontation, Iran would consider such as the United States attacking Iran without cause. The Iranian leadership believes that if they display any military threat that the United States would turn tail and run as they do not have the stomach for such a fight. This may be a valid point as the Iranian hardcore elements would never stop fighting unless liquidated and the citizens of the United States are not prepared to engage in this kind of total war for an extended period of time. The Iranian civilian and military leadership have trained in Vietnam where they have been told everything about how any determined enemy can defeat the United States simply by continuing the fight until the American people demand an end to the costly war. That is the secret behind much of the Iranian bluster and additionally they have all the proof they need as they have seen the United States leave Afghanistan, Iraq and now Syria abandoning the Kurds.

 

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

 

Some might ask why would Iran attack Israel should the United States attack or engage Iranian forces. Well, they believe that the United States is controlled by some cabal of Jews who plan the foreign policies of the United States in order to have it serve Israel. The Iranian leadership actually believes the Jews control most Western countries and thus should any Western nation engage Iran, they are obviously doing so and sacrificing themselves and their people all in the service of Israel. Somebody should have informed them that “The Protocols of the Elders of Zion” was a piece of fiction written by the Tsars of Russia to promote anti-Semitism to use as a means of explaining away their economic woes blaming, you guessed it, the Jews. Further, the Iranians believe that the Jews have some mystical abilities whereby they, quoting Ms. Ilhan Abdullahi Omar, hypnotized the world into doing their bidding. If the Jews really had this ability, don’t you think that they would have taken control of their enemies first with Iran and Ms. Omar near the top of the list, or are they the select few who have immunity to the Jewish mind control. What is frightening are the similarities between the claims of Ms. Omar and Ayatollah Khamenei.

 

As for what is most likely to result from President Trump calling Ayatollah Khamenei’s bluff that should the United States apply and enforce their final stage of isolating Iran economically by bringing an end to their exportation of oil, they would have crossed a red-line. Well, in theory that red line was crossed as of May 1, 2019, and thus far Iran has not attacked the United States or any allies they have, especially if they are backing President Trump. Another way the Iranians could attack the United States does not involve weapons but instead they would just need to interject items which might produce sufficient pressures that Trump does not seek reelection in 2020 or steps down before the coming elections. The Iranian feel buoyed by the Democrat claims that President Trump is a mere piece of evidence away from Impeachment. This has the Iranians believing that President Trump is vulnerable to the threats of Impeachment and all they need to do in order to take Trump down is provide the flimsiest piece of evidence. It can be expected for Iran to test President Trump. The Iranians honestly believe that they are the most advanced and more precious before Allah and no nation could possibly stand against them simply due to their resolve. They see themselves as the modern Persia and seek to reestablish the Persian Empire except this one will not fall to Greece or anyone else, well, not immediately. The Iranian ruling elite are convinced that they have the strongest military in the world and they are destined to be the ones who conquer the world and bring all the people to Islam, Shia Islam. They have a strong resolve that they will be given the world because the Quran stated that Islam will rule the world and everyone will genuflect towards Mecca and Allah.

 

Should Iran and the United States be engulfed in a War, as we have seen, it will engage Israel. Once Israel has been assaulted and they will then use the media to instigate anti-Semitic acts across Europe and elsewhere. Their hope is to have the people of the world turn against Israel blaming the war on the Jews and their manipulation of the various leaders into doing their bidding. Adding to this the sharp increases in the United States and the rest of the developed world of anti-Semitism, despite that these blood libels have been debunked, they still permeate much of the world being seen as valid reasons for destroying Israel. The Iranian leadership see the destruction of Israel as a potential tipping point bringing people to witness and even bring them into Shia Islam eventually Shia Islam the driving force of the Muslim world. Delusion can be a dangerous problem and when it becomes part and parcel of the ruling elite in a nation, it can only lead to ruin often taking many innocents with it. It is this ignorance which could lead to the next great war involving mankind and could be the final war where the world is bombed back to the Stone Age. This is the threat the world is ignoring insisting instead that Israel is a threat to world peace. There can be no rational reason for having such views, but apparently, they do not disqualify people and even parties from becoming leadership. That may well become the undoing of humankind, all as we came close to great wonders and leaps forward in our knowledge of the universe and other astronomical theories and our ability to reach for the stars. Perhaps that is the bane and ending note for all civilizations and explains why SETI never actually hears a verifiable signal. Maybe this will be how the human race destroys itself on the eve of greatness. Whatever, the coming conflagration is avoidable, but only if the world chooses to act as grown-ups rather than be petty little people all wound up in their own little world.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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