Beyond the Cusp

December 21, 2014

Iran and Hamas Make-Up and Reunite in Terror War

 

Hamas had insulted Iran and basically enjoined with the Iranian Enemies fighting against Syrian strongman Bashir al-Assad while Iran and Russia were supporting and arming Syria and their terror allies from Lebanon, Hezballah. This little parting of their ways Hamas was cut-off from their suppliers of rocket engines, largest and most capable rockets and tunneling expertise which had been provided by Iran or Hezballah agents. The IRGC (Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps) are the Iranian forces who are deployed to train groups and facilitate terror across the globe through providing expertise in rockets, ambush tactics, explosive construction, tunneling expertise, bunker construction and advice across a wide variety of subjects which assist in maximizing effectiveness and destruction of properties and killing of often civilian innocents in addition to military and security personnel. Their initiated conflict with the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) cost Hamas much if not all of their infiltration tunnels which the IDF destroyed through selective placement of explosives collapsing the numerous and varied main and sub-tunnels which had reached across the Israeli border and to exits near or within numerous Israeli kibbutzim and military staging sites to utilize in a planned Rosh Hashanah massive terror assault, an assault which was prevented by the tunnel demolitions saving untold numbers of Israelis across the entirety of the Gaza border and beyond had all their plans succeeded. The leadership of Hamas has been attempting to make their apologies and reestablish their friendly relations and restore their lifeline for arms and expertise which had been lost when they sided against al-Assad, a close Iranian ally and critical state if Iran is to maintain their Shiite Crescent from Tehran to Beirut and other Mediterranean port cities. Syria is also important as the Damascus International Airport is the main point for Iranian and Russian supplies, especially advisors and armaments, to be transferred to Syrian military forces and to Hezballah, the terrorist entity which has gained control over Lebanon giving Iran an ally capable of threatening the northern borders of Israel. Now with the reunion of Hamas with Iran, the Iranians have reestablished their alliance with terrorists who can threaten Israel on her southern border even from the Sinai Peninsula when Hamas is able to establish communications with or place assets in those tactically sensitive areas. This is just as major an arrangement for Iran as it is for Hamas.

 

This reemergence of the Iran-Hamas relationship may have been the reason behind the recent Hamas demonstration in their largest ever military training exercise which was concluded with the launching of a rocket into southern Israel, the third such rocket launch into Israel since this past summer’s open conflict between Hamas and Israeli security and military forces. Israel finally responded with a bombing sortie which Hamas reported caused little damage and no casualties. This has been the history of the military responses by Israel to Hamas launches of rockets intended to strike civilian targets. Hamas launches a series of rockets over time into Israel aiming for civilian areas often striking near homes, schools, medical clinics, shopping centers and other places where civilians gather in numbers with only the hand of G0d preventing serious injuries in all too many instances finally forcing a response from Israel who launch a reprisal strike often on an empty building or in an empty field causing virtually no real damage and certainly not effecting Hamas terror functions and abilities. Every so often Israel will strike an actual Hamas sensitive target such as a rocket machining facility or a weapons storage shed, many of which are placed adjacent to Civilian structures often sharing a common wall such that any such location targeted also causes civilian damage which Hamas utilizes to express outrage which is immediately picked-up upon by European sympathizers including many political entities from the European Union such as their past and present foreign ministers, Catherine Ashton and Federica Mogherini respectively, and numerous Ministers of Parliaments from all too many European nations which is soon followed by massive leftist demonstrations within Israel and across Europe all coordinated by anti-Israeli, anti-Zionist, anti-Semitic Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) which receive their operating budgets from several European national governments and precious little funding from other sources. Often these NGOs receive funding from a central NGO which is totally financed through some single European national government. Such organized conspirational financing where questionably financed NGOs echoing the identical complaints made by European government or European Union Ministers or officials simply amplifies the denouncements of Israel which are originated, established, coordinated and conspired by these European politically related and tied groups and governmental institutions and individuals. When one then follows through with the media which will quote Hamas and other anti-Israel, anti-Zionist and anti-Semitic terrorist or political entities word for word without any provisos or commentary giving them the weight and appearance of factual reporting rather than slanderous defamation yet in the very same news reporting an Israeli statement or press release is accompanied by modifiers such as reportedly, according to Israeli spokespersons, reputed by Israelis and other challenges to their veracity, then people watching such reporting are pressed to disbelieve the Israeli side while accepting without question the Hamas or terrorist statements simply due to the language and prefacing by the editorializing reporting by the news bureaus. The most disturbing examples of this problem is when similar reporting is committed by Israeli media such as Haaretz and any number of television news casts, some of which were broadcast on the nightly news as he was a well-known newscaster and editorialist who, as his father before him, translated his news fame into a political campaign and currently heads a party and who is vying to become the next Israeli Prime Minister, Yair Lapid.

 

With Hamas and Iran now returning to their collaboration against Israel there is an additional threat poised on Israel’s every border, the consequences of any Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear sites or other instillations has become more tenuous and fraught with threats. This makes the negotiations of the P5+1 powers (United States, Russia, China, Germany, France and Great Britain) with Iran which just extended their deadline to reach an agreement preventing Iran from attaining breakout nuclear capability all the more vitally important. The threat is that these extensions which now have extended the deadline for reaching a conclusive treaty more than a year and approaching a year and a half which simply provides Iran that much additional time to not only complete their research but to also actually build some nuclear warheads to place atop their constantly improving missiles which are approaching ICBMs which would be capable of reaching anywhere in the world. This is important as even with their current abilities the Iranians can use either a North Korean plan, which I am sure after the SONY debacle they would gladly assist the Iranians, or use their own plan which they have practiced in the Caspian Sea with formidable results, topics explained more fully here. I guess the rule here is to never antagonize any potential enemy whose potentials to destroy your civilization are unknown and potentially capable of rendering your nation back to the times and technology of the American Civil War or worse, the stone age before electricity. Unfortunately for Israel, the United States and eventually for Europe as well, the Iranians may soon have produced, if not already producing, a fairly sizeable nuclear arsenal consisting of various weapons sizes and types to include EMP devices, neutron bombs and any other one might imagine since nobody really knows for sure how many nuclear sites the Iranians are operating or their locations and capabilities. What we do know is that the International Atomic Energy Agency (AIEA) has reported that the Iranians have not been completely cooperative nor have they permitted any inspection of known research sites such as their Parchin Military Base where it is suspected research was performed on nuclear triggers for warhead development. This also raises one problem that most concerns Israel, what if Iran has developed nuclear weaponry which they provide to Hezballah or Hamas to use against Israel. Such a weapon could be driven into the heart of Israel, the center of Tel Aviv, and detonated potentially before the vehicle could be intercepted. Such a weapon if smuggled into Samaria or Judea (West Bank) it could be transported to the Temple Mount and detonated there in order to lay the blame on Israel bringing unimaginable denunciations and hatreds down on Israel without waiting for any research to prove the origins of the device. Even after it may have been proven not to be an Israeli device but was suspected, or proven, to be a device of Iranian origins, there would still be those Europeans, amongst others, who would continue to blame Israel denouncing the Jewish State mercilessly ignoring any proof of Iranian perfidy or Israeli innocence. The Arab and Muslim worlds would go ballistic blaming Israel for the destruction of the Temple Mount and the historic religious shrines of both Islam and Christianity. This might have one blessing in that it would finally have Islamic leaders bemoaning the damage to Christian shrines and not just showing concern for Islamic losses. The reuniting of Hamas with Iran will be hazardous to Israel and likely problematic for Fatah and Mahmoud Abbas as well and potentially worse for Abbas than Israel as eventually Hamas will take control of the areas claimed by Abbas and Fatah. As a matter of fact, the sooner he realizes his oft stated dream of an Arab state, the sooner that Hamas will demand elections in which they are guaranteed to replace Abbas and control the new parliament, or should Abbas continue to refuse to hold elections, especially as he has done for his own position as chairman, then Hamas will simply repeat the act which gave them Gaza, a coup, a coup as bloody as any resistance makes necessary. This is the importance of the renewed Iran Hamas reunification of relations and the future should Iran become a nuclear weaponized power, because the P5+1 nations led by the United States fail to be effective in their duties, something which President Obama does not appear to appreciate the vital importance of nor the deadly consequences for any failure.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 18, 2014

The World Has Gone Crazy! And Here Are Some Reasons Why

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Yesterday there might have been even the slightest possibility that the world might recover its senses, but alas such has slid even further towards the cliff and might actually have slid beyond the cusp and all that’s left is the drop into the unchartered waters which lead inexorably to societal collapse and chaos. We might have made our way back from beyond the cusp of reason after President Obama stated that ISIS, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, was not Islamic ignoring their adherence to the later Quran, the Quran written in Medina where Muhammad reached a position equivalent to a War Lord commanding the largest caravan raiding group which also made him the ruler of Medina and its surrounding areas. If we could by some miracle have Muslims adopt the earlier writings in the Quran written in Mecca before Muhammad reached any level of power and was mostly spurned despite his words of peace and coexistence, Islam’s followers would be welcome additions throughout all societies and the more observant the better their acceptance. He was eventually chased and exiled from Mecca by the prevailing powers as they likely saw him as either a potential threat or an annoyance. Muhammad being chased from Mecca likely was instrumental in his eventual return with his forces to retake the city which had rejected him and force them to enlist in Islam as it had evolved into a religion which was to be spread by persuasion where possible and force where persuasion had failed. Perhaps President Obama was raised in Indonesia where he attended a Madrassa in the tenets of the early Mecca Quran and by those delineations and definitions ISIS would not be observing Islamic law. Still, it is a stretch to believe that President Obama is not familiar with the entirety of the Quran or that none of his advisors are familiar with the Quran. If that is true, then the President needs to find at least one expert on Islam to advise him, and I am not available for the job at any government pay scale.

 

Then there were the numerous tumultuous events throughout the world so far this week a few of which were covered yesterday. The last couple of days have extended and stretched credulity to the point where it has to have snapped and been torn asunder, placing the world into the ‘Twilight Zone’. First we had the European Union meeting to consider removing Hamas from the listings of terror organizations. Then they sent messages to Israeli media and government officials stating they still considered Hamas to be a terrorist group and then European Court of Justice within minutes ruled that Hamas was no longer considered a terrorist group and the European Union accepted their judgment. From there we went to the logical follow-up of officially recognizing a Palestinian State. Needless to say, the European Union gave warm words intended to soothe Israeli fears and assure them that they in no way intended to recognize a Palestinian State and were still one-hundred-percent behind a Palestinians State coming from negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Arab leadership. Then just hours after removing Hamas from the list of terrorist entities, the European Union Parliament voted to recognize Palestinian State by four-hundred-ninety-eight votes in favor to eighty-eight votes against and with one-hundred-eleven delegates abstaining. This now will be used by all the European nations who desire to recognize a Palestinian State using this move by the European Union statute.

 

Believe it or not, there are still a small core of nations whose leaderships are showing definitive signs of logic, reason and morality. As we covered not that long ago, Switzerland is holding a confab titled, “Conference on Humanitarian Law in Palestinian Authority’s Assigned Territories” which they claim they have been working towards gaining the largest possible number of nations attending for a number of weeks since the United Nations General Assembly passed by a large majority a motion calling for a conference dealing with the charges against Israel under the Fourth Geneva Convention which was submitted before the body by the Palestinian Observer to the United Nations. The United States, Israel and Australia have notified the Swiss that they will not be in attendance. But going the extra step worthy of noting and quoting is the leadership of Canada, a friend like which Israel has rarely enjoyed. Quoting Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird stating, while informing the media, the Swiss, the world and all those who rush to demonize Israel, that will not attend Wednesday’s anti-Israel conference in Switzerland dealing with, “respect for international humanitarian law in the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) assigned territories.” But that was not all, he continued, “Canada is deeply disappointed by the convening of this one-sided and politicized conference, which serves only to single out one country, Israel, for criticism.” And this wonderful and capably strong stated spokesman went further declaring, “Canada has complete faith in the strength of the rule of law in Israel, and we believe the Israelis are capable of investigating matters surrounding the events that took place in Gaza in the summer of 2014.” Next he entered an accusatory stage stating, “This conference risks undermining the integrity and credibility of the Geneva Conventions and the neutrality of their application.” And finally he reached his conclusion summing everything up with, “Such a misguided approach will neither serve the cause of peace nor bring the parties closer to a negotiated settlement.” Quoting Canada’s Foreign Minister John Baird is simply uplifting, refreshing and such a breath of fresh air clearing away the normal mundane inanities we have to put up with most of the time. Canadian Prime Minister Steven Harper is another such hero who takes a strong stand in supporting Israel and speaking truth against the hail of slanders when dealing with issues concerning Israel. Ruining this glorious series of quotes, we return to Swiss President Didier Burkhalter, who retorted to the Canadian announcement, we expect to have a “very large participation” in the conference. He concluded, “Our objective is to advance the cause of international humanitarian law. Even if Israel and the United States boycott the meeting, the international community must speak on the issue. There is no denigration of Israel planned.” Needless to deduce, should denigration of Israel result, there will be numerous representatives attending, the Swiss included, just leaping to their feet and objecting to such commentary and nobody would ever jump on board and echo such denigrations and adding their own additional twists and accusations. Add this conference to the world gone mad, and especially the European leadership from Portugal to the Ukraine.

 

Speaking of the Ukraine, there has been a steady streaming of Russian provided weaponry, both small arms and heavy weapons including tanks and armored personnel carriers into the war torn eastern Ukraine resupplying the Russian aligned rebels. The Ukraine will be in turmoil and largely standing alone in the world with every respectable nation shaking at the prospect of facing off against Russia’s Putin who it is now claimed is feeling pressured horribly by the falling oil prices depressing an already weak economy. Putin has been using military adventurism as a distraction from the economic woes and with this current downward pressure Putin is likely to become even further driven in his adventurism. There have been rumors that there has been Russian pressure being placed on regions of Lithuania which has raised fears that Putin might actually challenge NATO by moving against some of NATO’s eastern European members. It has been long known that the Russians were displeased with the admissions of their former satellite countries, especially those closest geographically to Russia such as Lithuania.

 

Add to everything else that Iran, who arms and finances Hamas and Hezballah, will probably declare themselves to have entered the nuclear club as a result of the lack of will from the rest of the world to prevent their thus arming themselves. With a nuclear armed Iran, one has to wonder whether a tactical nuclear weapon might be deployed by Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad against the rebel, al-Qaeda aligned forces or ISIS positions escalating the civil war to a whole new and frightening level. There would also be a potential for Hamas or Hezballah to be so armed which would completely change the complexity of the threats against Israel raising the threat of a nuclear exchange in the Middle East. Such a situation would also be a great challenge to the United States fleets in the Persian Gulf, especially considering that the Iranians are rumored to have received advanced Sunburn anti-ship missiles which carry a seven-hundred-fifty pound conventional warhead or a miniaturized nuclear device. Additionally, with the recent revelations of the advanced state of Russian and Chinese nuclear programs and missile technology resulting from their sizeable investments, as reported here, over the past decade or more and their sharing many of their advances with North Korea and Iran furthers the possibility for a conflict in the Middle East backed by the threat from Iran to resort to the use of nuclear weapons should any nation oppose their moves which may come against Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arabian Gulf nations possibly with the exception of their ally Qatar to take control of their Shiite areas claiming to restore these former Persian areas to their rightful control. With so much of the world on edge, embroiled in conflict and fearing other threats and dangers wherever one looks that it seems that we are simply waiting for the fuse to finish burning through the very short remainder of the fuse and the explosions to spread as a wildfire throughout the globe.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 15, 2014

Obama Ignores Russian Discovery that Neuters Nuclear Warheads

 

Recent revelations have indicated that the Russians have discovered a neutering weakness of all the nuclear warheads in the arsenals of the United States and likely other nuclear powers as well. This discovery which completely alters any perceived balance of power is that the heat shields used on the United States nuclear missiles use polymeric compounds as a component in their heat shields which protect the warhead during the stages of reentry are able to be destroyed when subjected to intense x-rays. This discovery means that if the warheads which utilized polymers that were reinforced with asbestos fibers, such as the aging United States arsenal employ, were subjected to an intense blast of x-rays they would literally become brittle and crumble when subjected to reentry vibrations and thus permit the heat of reentry to cook and destroy the warheads. This would mean that the Russians would need to simply launch a few nuclear warheads to detonate within a reasonable distance of even an all-out nuclear strike from the United States and the resultant burst of x-rays, along with gamma-rays and other effects, would cause the entirety of the missiles to be crippled as their heat shields would become compromised making the entire strike to become ineffective and inert. Such a discovery would make the United States enter into a frantic and immediate upgrading of their nuclear warheads and thus modernizing them in such a manner as to make them no longer susceptible to such a neutering vulnerability. Hard as it may seem to believe but the current budget actually decreased the funding for maintenance of the United States nuclear arsenal.

 

This decreasing of the budget for upkeep and research into ways to modernize the United States nuclear arsenal is also surprising for other reasons. One glaring reason has been the upgrading and researches the Russians and the Chinese have invested in with their nuclear inventories with both nations producing nuclear weapons which are two generations removed from those which they maintained previously to gain parity with the NATO powers. The research that both nations have placed as a priority has been aided further with the recent exchange of information between the two world powers such that they have also gained from each other’s research and development. The Russians have almost completed a substantive upgrading of their entire nuclear inventory replacing their older warheads with their latest improved both their designs and the means of weaponizing the detonation sequencing for greater yields and also for specialized effects such as using warheads specifically for generating EMP waves or neutron yields which leave structures relatively intact while causing yields of radiation that is lethal for living organisms. Meanwhile the United States has sat idle in the fields of nuclear weapons research and has retained with minimal upkeep their weapons from the Cold War period. This makes the youngest warheads in the United States arsenal to be over thirty years of age. Fortunately for the United States, these just over thirty year old devices are equipped with a superior graphite-reinforced heat shields which are not vulnerable to a burst of x-rays or any other such vulnerability but the remainder of the United States and NATO warheads still have this vulnerability and there does not appear to be any great rush to upgrade these warheads.

 

When one thinks about the effect of the smug attitude amongst the western nations that they no longer need to upgrade their nuclear weapons and that there is no potential dangers where such weapons might enter into the exchanges in any future conflict shows a general disdain for preparing for any and all potential conflicts. This is the same smugness which has plagued the United States placing them in vulnerable positions and always having to play catch-up at the onset of hostilities. This smugness and perception that the world has entered a stage where committing a nation to start a war is beyond their ability to conceive and thus relegated to the realm of the impossible. Holding such an attitude will actually make the potential for a future war more likely than not as it leaves the United States, western nations of NATO and the free world in general ill prepared for any conflict which may occur. Such an attitude also ignores other realities such that these new developments in warhead design and rocket designs, some of which allow for the reentry vehicle carrying the warhead to approach its target along a trajectory other than a simple gravitational parameter making them impregnable to standard existing anti-missile systems, have been exchanged between Russia and China and thus likely to have been shared with North Korea and Iran. This would allow all these nations to produce nuclear weapons systems which could potentially be impervious to United States and NATO as well as potentially Israeli anti-missile interceptors currently in use. This would make the requirement for research and concurrent upgrading of the nuclear weapons systems and anti-missile systems urgent and of primary concern in the immediate future, but considering the complete aversion to the military and its requirements by the current administration under President Obama completely impossible. What is even more frightening is that the next President is also not likely to be all that interested in investing the funding and placing such emphasis on the urgent needs to acquire the leading minds in these fields to simply start what will need to be a prolonged and continuous effort.

 

The Russians and Chinese have been placing just such an emphasis on their weaponized systems including and especially nuclear warhead design and missile technology which made a special effort on making the missiles more capable of defeating anti-missile systems currently in use. These new warheads will have placed an emphasis to require newer systems which use particle beam and laser intercept pulsed systems as these would counter the newest systems as the delivery speed of the intercepting device would travel near or at the speed of light. Systems using rail-gun technologies would also be another area to research as such would be very practical for intercepting directed missiles such as the Russian and Chinese anti-ship Sunburst Missiles which carries a 750 pound conventional warhead or can carry a tactical nuclear warhead and has a range of up to one-hundred miles and reaches a top cruising speed of Mach 2.1 which is more than twice the speed of sound plus utilized a low height trajectory just over wave while performing erratic and radical course changes during flight enabling it to defeat most anti-missile defenses. This is but one of the new challenges that the Russian and Chinese have developed directly resultant to their doubling and redoubling their funding and investment in new and advanced weapons systems. Both nations realized that they would be incapable of matching the United States ship for ship, aircraft for aircraft and missile for missile so they instead invested in developing systems with vast capabilities and with a direct input demanding that these systems be capable of defeating all countermeasures in use by the United States and NATO nations. This is the situation which the western nations have thus far ignored either from disbelief that the Chinese or the Russians could have progressed that far ahead of the current technologies in use even though most of these systems are decades old with a few and rare exceptions.

 

The problem is more dire and serious than many in the west have realized as many of these technological advancements are being made available to nations who are potential enemies who would not think twice about attacking United States or NATO forces and initiating the confrontation responding to even the most minimal affront including rhetorical attacks which many would not perceive as rising to the level of causing an actual military response. Iran has been given access to the anti-ship Sunburn missile which they could conceivably use as a ground based weapon and not necessitate placing it on a ship which would be more vulnerable. Iranian technological expertise has been witnessed by Israel during their last operation in Gaza where they realized the extent to which Hamas and Islamic Jihad relied upon tunnels and underground stationing of rocket launching platforms which would rise up and fire their missile or rocket only to retreat back underground placing a cover which concealed the location from detection. These systems proved only to be vulnerable to detections based on knowledge gained through intelligence gathering. Gathering intelligence on Gaza is not anywhere near the difficulty that gathering such intelligence on Iran would pose simply due to proximity and size of area over which such intelligence would need to cover. Iran would pose an impossible challenge to even the highest and best intelligence gathering and would take a large investment and still might be dependent upon satellite data gathered over a prolonged period. As Russia has grown close with Iran especially in respect to arming Syria and Hezbollah which Iran has made ample investments purchasing weapons used by Iran and their satellite interests. China has a similar relationship with North Korea whose current leader is more of an enigma than a known and understood entity. All of these relations and new realities are challenges which the western nations need to realize, identify and invest in the necessary upgrades and the research which will produce the next generations of weapons systems and defenses. The west and the world in general cannot afford to enter any conflict being decades behind in technology and sophistication of their weapons and defensive systems and hope to have the time to play catch-up after hostilities have broken out. It was sufficient a challenge during World War II and one that almost cost the allies their victory. Had the Third Reich had just a few more months before the Normandy Invasions and Russian turning around the field of battle at Moscow and Stalingrad and they might have developed and produced their latest technologies such as jet aircraft and three-stage rockets capable of reaching the United States mainland from launchers within Europe and nuclear warheads to place atop such rockets and the results would have been very different. In the next conflict there will be no time to play catch-up as the distances which once proved to be insurmountable and provided the United States with a seclusion of invulnerability which has vanished in the current situations. Believing that the world has reached the sophistication where nobody would start a war because the potential price they might have to pay was too high is an innocence of thought and misunderstanding of the realities of the world that could prove fatal to any nation living under that dream. There are nations, Iran and North Korea come to mind and potentially Russia should their internal distress reach an unbearable point, for whom starting a war despite the potential for devastating result on the home front would not be sufficient deterrence. Can the west honestly believe they are safe because nobody would dare be fool enough to attack them as doing so would be suicide? First off, are they sure it would be suicide and if so is that an honest assessment? There are no such guarantees that the world will act in any manner which some believe are based on valid and sane assessments as nations throughout history have entered into conflicts which were ill thought out and resulted in disasters. They will continue to do so in the future as mankind has not actually evolved beyond such foolishness no matter how much we desire to believe so.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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