Beyond the Cusp

August 12, 2017

Trump and America Alone

 

The United States has not ever been known to be alone in the world with friends which can be counted on her two hands. Those days are almost upon us. Very soon the United States will be finding herself blamed for acting when she acts and for standing aside when she doesn’t act. She will start facing denunciations in the General Assembly of the United Nations by votes resembling those only Israel has faced before where 130 will vote to denounce her with maybe a dozen supporting America and the remainder abstaining and in the United Nations Security Council she will find only her own Veto will prevent her facing sanctions. Whenever the United States acts there will be accusations of unilateralism even when her actions are to rescue a nation from hostile acts of their neighbors. What could possibly bring on such condemnations? Well isn’t it obvious? Her own leftists and their NGO’s in their inevitable rush to try and discredit and destroy President Trump will result in their also discrediting the necessary actions he may soon be called upon to decide as certain things reach critical levels after being pushed aside for decades. These situations reaching these points, these deplorable stages, are doing so largely due to President after President kicking the can down the road because to act required somebody actually being the adult in the room and taking the responsibility of what would inevitable be an unpopular series of events.

 

This will burst upon the scene initially with probably facing down the North Korean menace Kim Jong-un and his ever-increasing threat which advances with each missile test. Most observers place his current level of threat lower than it actually is, a common thread in politics where avoiding bad news and terrible situations is often done by underestimating the possibilities. Currently, President Trump and his military are properly giving North Korea and its potential threats its rightful attention but they are likely to back away from confrontation if for no other reason than their knowledge of the firestorm which would follow any military action against the Kim regime. They probably already made the deal not to intervene in exchange for allowing one more set of sanctions just passed by the United Nations Security Council to work. If somebody could give us a reason why these sanctions will function with any superior results than the past five sets of sanctions since the armistice was signed in the early Eisenhower years, that would at least be amusing. The problems with these sanctions are the same as with the previous sanctions, North Korea largely trades with China and some with Russia and little else. These are the two nations which can be counted upon to ignore the sanctions after a brief period of observing them so as to grant them the appearance of working. Sanctions are not the magic tool for breaking the bond that China and Russia have with North Korea. For these two adversaries, North Korea is their arrow in the flank of the United States which seriously hampers the American image and drains off the attentions of the United States from their acts of belligerence. One will always pay attention to the leader threatening nuclear annihilation over those merely pressuring neighboring nations in order to increase their spheres of influence.

 

Map of Approximate Missile Ranges of North Korean Missiles

Map of Approximate Missile Ranges of North Korean Missiles

 

North Korea is soon to reach the point of no return with their having produced a viable and reliable two stage, solid-fueled ICBM and the thermonuclear warhead of five to ten megaton range, a real city-killer with the necessary accuracy to strike within a mile or two from the intended spot anywhere in the world. The advantage they will gain once their ICBM’s are solid-fueled is recognizably dire. Solid-fueled two stage ICBM’s, unlike their liquid-fueled missiles, are ready to be fired instantly by simply, as it is shown in the movies, pressing the large red button on the console (always placed next to the other red button which is for self-destruct of the station). The current liquid-fueled missiles take at least an hour to pump the fuel into the tanks where they also must be kept heavily chilled to avoid the launch becoming a detonation. Such a process is fairly easily picked up by satellites viewing the planet below and thus giving the United States ample warning to take actions either political, economic or military threat as well as preparing an interception under best possible conditions. Solid-fueled missiles simply are fired from their launcher, which in the case of North Korea, thanks to China for providing these, are on mobile launchers which means that their location could be anywhere within North Korea and often have escaped detection. This prevents having the right resources for an interception under best conditions available. This is why the threat from North Korea has, in our opinion, already reached the point where they are at having an advantage.

 

North Korean Missile Launcher Utilizing Chinese Trucks

North Korean Missile Launcher Utilizing Chinese Trucks

 

Unlike those whose responsibility is to give President Trump a picture where he still has the largest possible range of options still available, our assessment is that North Korea has tested their separation technology with their last four launches which were two stage missiles. This was the last remaining step to master before placing a solid fueled second stage, which they have already demonstrated, atop a similar sized first stage booster. That is the formula for a viable ICBM which is all solid-fueled and ready to fly within a moment’s notice. North Korea has had a viable Super EMP warhead for two years by now and they have proven to be capable of aiming a missile to strike the United States from the south coming into the Texas area where NORAD has a soft spot of minimal detection and intercept being designed primarily to prevent Russian attacks and having been adapted to include China but never to intercept a missile coming from the south. This has long been a deficiency the United States had left vulnerable as the cost of closing the circle was considered too high for the limited protection it was thought to provide, a purely political choice and another can kicked down the road. North Korea already has placed a satellite into such an orbit which could be dropped to the required low-earth orbit necessary for optimum EMP detonations currently and this satellite is of unknown function. Military experts have claimed it was much like Sputnik and was merely a proof of capability satellite and nothing sinister at all. Let us all hope they were correct.

 

North Korea likely has a mountable sized warhead which could easily deliver a Hiroshima sized or possibly larger warhead currently in their arsenal. Kim Jong-un may even have a small thermonuclear warhead available for launching. This is the point where it all depends on your faith in the abilities provided by his scientists. It would not make much sense for China to have provided mobile missile launchers for liquid-fueled missiles as it would have been equally illogical to provide such if Kim Jon-un was only going to be targeting South Korea or Japan, as is still being held as his only really viable target by some advisors. These locations could be targeted and struck well before anybody could intervene with the most simple of Kim Jong-un’s known arsenals. The North Koreans have had sufficient weaponry targeting Seoul, South Korea for over half a century initially using simply artillery and subsequently replacing rocket artillery with some missiles, most probably some version of guidable Scud, so as to strike particular targets such as hardened command and control and other bunkers. The targeting which Kim Jon-un has been waiting to have are reliable missiles with which he can target New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, Dallas, Washington D.C. and Colorado Springs with the Air Force Academy and central controls for NORAD.

 

Presumed China Provided North Korean Mobile Missile Carrier

Presumed China Provided North Korean Mobile Missile Carrier

 

The sole thing holding Kim Jon-un from any attack is two fold, first he lacks sufficient missiles to guarantee overwhelming any interception capabilities of the United States and he would prefer to make demands, painful demands, of the United States mainly but addressed to the world. The first demand will be for the United States to remove their bases and soldiers from South Korea. This will be demanded to prove to South Korea as well as Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan that they are basically on their own against North Korea and China. Should the United States approve such a move then Kim Jong-un will know that he has an appeaser to work with and he will continue. The next demand will be to South Korea where he will demand that the peninsula be united under a federation between himself and the President of South Korea and some form of united administration. That will be inconsequential as within weeks Kim Jong-un will have announced that he was granted sole leadership despite any governance that was initially signaled. Kim Jong-un is not the kind of person who shares anything, let alone absolute power. Then he will demand the sanction be removed, as his merger with South Korea should be proof that he is no danger to anybody, he used pure diplomacy for his takeover of the entire Korean peninsula. What he might do after that is anybody’s guess. Japan would be one logical next target, but that would not be a diplomatic move, as Japan would never agree no matter how much pressure the world placed upon them. So, the next step may as well be his swan song, the really big step, demands Security Council permanent status seat with the other nuclear powers because he deserves such respect. Whatever his demand, he will continue making more and more outrageous demands until finally somebody, likely the United States puts their foot down and says no to his demands. That is when he will appear to sulk and be forlorn while waiting for a sufficient period that he feels will have the United States relaxed and not expecting an attack. This is when he might actually be sufficiently unstable and believe that should he decapitate the United States leadership, then the United States might simply not respond and settle for licking their wounds and trying to recover.

 

This is why Kim Jong-un need be countered on the United States terms and not wait for him to become an actual threat. That leads us to President Trump and the current situation. President Trump currently has his hands tied until Kim Jong-un either carries out a nuclear test or another missile test this time using both stages being solid-fueled systems. This will prove his ability to launch on command instead of having an hours waiting for fueling for launch when ready, not immediate. With this proven technology, the United States will be on notice that Kim Jong-un will be readily capable of striking any number of targets potentially within the Continental United States, that would be CONUS Command, and possibly any target within the United States as well as Europe. Whatever the perceived and admitted abilities of North Korean missile technology, they are frighteningly close to their desired capability and already are capable of striking the United States with a devastating EMP device which could bring down most, if not all, of the North American electrical grid. We would call that a very definite threat to the well-being of every American as such a devastating strike would minimally kill three-quarters of the population of North America. Canada would also be direly adversely affected. This places President Trump with the unenviable decision of does he act now, before anything horrific occurs or does he wait for a provocation which nobody could fail to recognize and admit he acted according to the betterment of the American people or did he act as a warmonger seeking personal glory. We may as well face the reality of this situation. Should President Trump act to prevent any of the dire consequences of a nuclear capable Kim Jong-un, then the media, Congress and other world leaders and especially the United Nations and their army of NGO’s and Agencies will all unite to condemn the man who destroyed the peace solely for self-aggrandizement. And should President Trump wait until Kim Jong-un acts and attacks the United States then President Trump would be pillories as the President who did not have the foresight or the willingness to act in the face of impending danger and allowed the needless suffering of the people of Japan, South Korea or wherever Kim Jong-un ordered the strike and if it was the United States, all the more Trump will be condemned. If Kim Jong-un were to strike Japan and President Trump responds by attacking North Korea then he will be criticized if his attack is too large in scale or if it is considered insufficient in scale. The secret is if it leaves Kim Jong-un with any ability to strike further, then the attack proved to be insufficient and Trump is an incompetent. If, on the other hand, the attack decapitates North Korean military and political structure and removes all threats, then Trump is a warmonger bringing undue suffering to the people, the innocent people of North Korea. If then China were to take hold of most of North Korea, well, then Trump is an incompetent again for not seeing this inevitability and acting to prevent the Chinese from taking over the northern half of the Korean Peninsula and thus threatening South Korea even worse than Kim Jong-un had threatened them. If United States and South Korean troops enter the North and unite the peninsula, well then Trump did it for the land and to force democracy war upon North Korea without even asking them if they desired such. You basically get the idea, either he is a warmonger or he was unprepared or he was a warmonger just before he was unprepared or he is a warmonger land grabber. Whatever President Trump does about North Korea, or does not do about North Korea will prove to have been wrong in the immediate media coverage and in the halls of Congress. We predict that if President Trump were to take steps to replace Kim Jong-un and manage this without firing a single shot or missile and all of North Korea were hailing him as their savior, impeachment charges would be brought up in the House of Representatives on charges of unnecessarily involving the United States in regime change for no reason. Of course, if he waits and Washington D.C. becomes a target, then there likely will be no action from Congress, as they will be scrambling to get far enough from the Capital in the period they have between warning and strike. With the EMP scenario, Congress might meet and actually still have electricity as the coasts might survive such a strike, and they would most definitely be bringing impeachment even if they were doing so by candle light. The end result of any action or inaction on North Korea will be impeachment, that is about the only sure bet.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 20, 2017

North Korea Sending Threats to United States, Japan and South Korea

 

Let us start with the news as reported over the past few months including accusations by Kim Jong Un accusing President Trump is the world’s modern Hitler comparing President Trump’s proposed partial delay of permitting refugees as equal to Hitler racial profiling. He claimed that President Trump was willing to sacrifice the rest of the world just for the betterment of the United States. Kim Jong Un insisted that the world must unite against the United States first policy, which is just like Hitler, and the Nazi policy of a supreme Nazi State. There is no doubt that there has been a consistent ramping of accusations and bristling of North Korea and their missile testing with a string of launches including a possible ICBM test which might have the ability to reach Alaska and possibly the West Coast of the United States mainland. Kim Jong Un claimed that President Trump has been enforcing fascist policies, which place people as either friend or enemy, and Trump has following Hitler’s policy with his two state policy dividing Korean Peninsula into two camps, friend and foe. The ramping has also included the placing of three nuclear powered aircraft carriers into the Sea of Japan off the North Korean coasts. The problem for South Korea is that one of the world’s most heavily populated and crowded cities, Seoul, the South Korean Capital City, would be simply decimated should North Korea launch all of their rocket artillery and regular artillery targeting the city. This threat has left South Korea in an antithetically nervous positioning as the risks it faces against any attack launched by Kim Jong Un, despite their weapons systems being of older technology, have such massive numbers already targeting the South Korean Capital City of Seoul that the risks are terrifying. The ability for the United States to intercept all or even the vast majority of these projectiles would be limited leaving the only option being an American launched preemptive assault to destroy these weapons before they could be used. The remainder of such a war would be difficult but air power could make all the difference providing it is used intelligently and only to prevent artillery being moved into position as well as mobile missile launchers to protect South Korea and Japan. Invading North Korea would be more difficult than such gains would be worth, unless you are a North Korean who would be greatly assisted once such a war was completed and they were united with their South Korean fellow Koreans in a newly united Korean Peninsula which could be known as Korea without any need for a North or South denotation. The freeing of the North Korean people who have been held prisoner by their oppressive dictatorial family regime of the Kim’s since the division of the Peninsula after the Korean War will remain impossible until the world is willing to face the evil which has abused these unfortunate victims of the Kim’s. Now let us present the initial videos.

 

 

 

 

The frightening escalating rhetoric between the two leaders, President Trump and Kim Jong Un, can only be seen as troubling as this may at some point reach a point where neither man cares to back down such that the simplest of changes in the stance of the opposing forces could lead to a full-fledged open warfare. The reason that Kim Jong Un is seeking a reason to open up warfare against South Korea, as he has often made the same claim as his father, is that the entire peninsula belongs to their regime and that the division is an artificial and temporary situation. They both have promised to rectify this false line drawn at the 38th Parallel. Where Kim Il Sung used the threat of forcibly unifying the Korean Peninsula as an agenda designed to force bailouts from the Western World to climb back down from these threats but his son has been less measured. He did this a number of times with each one following a similar scenario but Kim Jong Un has gone off the tracks and started entering areas not before taken by his father. The threats against Japan could be excused as a limited raising of the threat level to justify receiving funds and differentiating his style from his father, as his seeming desire to prove to be willing to enter into areas that his father had not would have been satisfied by such threats. His direct threats of the United States is an entirely new and dangerous escalation, and his making it personal by bad-mouthing President Trump is treading on ground which may prove impossible from which to retreat. Further, his challenging President Trump by deliberately crossing every line almost as rapidly as they are set, whether they were set by President Trump or by the United Nations and even seemed to challenge the G-7 when they discussed Kim Jong Un and his response was to launch two missiles while the nations were meeting.

 

The other point which sets a level from which President Trump will have a difficult time backing away from was his claim at an interview during the G-7 meetings where he stated that the problems with North Korea will be settled. President Trump was not more detailed than stating that the problems would be settled during his watch. When you add to this the unprecedented level of naval power placed in the Sea of Japan of three aircraft carriers (pictured below) and their escorting vessels, that places a ready and floating attack force capable of operating as the tip of the sword which would be capable of making an interdicting attack potentially capable of preventing any North Korean attack on Seoul. The secret for the success of such an assault would require complete surprise, which would require using stealth aircraft for the initial attack and taking out all radar and command and control systems as well as destroying communication lines. This would depend heavily upon intelligence work in identifying such targets and also the ability with night sight targeting using helicopters such as the Apache which was designed for just such use and is also a capable attack craft which also is capable of defending itself as well as in anti-armor warfare. There are areas that the United States would be advised to be very wary and careful before considering getting that involved in any conflict with North Korea. The one thing the United States need avoid at all cost would be a ground war involving large numbers of American ground forces, especially United States Army other than possibly Special Forces.

 

Three United States Aircraft Carriers Dispatched to Sea Of Japan off North Korean Coast

Three United States Aircraft Carriers Dispatched
to Sea Of Japan off North Korean Coast

 

Talking about a ground war, the United States should make it known to the South Korean government that such an idea is not within the United States plans. The rumors are that there are forces in South Korea who desire making a united Korea one of their major elements as a target they wish to accomplish. There are some who are willing in making concessions to a larger extent than what the United States commanders believe is wise. Whether these individuals will gain sufficient political influence is something that will need to be closely monitored but not necessarily be a determining factor in what the United States is planning. Granted, South Korea is an ally and major partner and everything that will be done need be discussed with the South Korean leaders only if they are of a similar mind to the United States intended efforts. The other ally who also need be considered and kept informed with the same provisos as South Korea is Japan as North Korea has threatened them as well. Truth be told, there is nobody in the immediate area other than China and Russia that North Korea has not threatened, and the jury is out as to whether China has escaped Kim Jong Un’s ravings and threats. Looking at the map one sees that with each new missile, North Korea reaches further out and can target more and more nations making their threats all the more viable and increasing the nations who are concerned. With their latest missile, which they touted as an ICBM, though it is actually more of a continental ballistic missile, they now can target all of India and most of Indonesia along with Viet Nam much of eastern Russia and in theory might reach Anchorage and southern Alaska and definitely the Aleutian Islands and with just slightly more range the West Coast of the United States. Of course since North Korea has proven their ability to place satellites into orbit, albeit low earth orbit, this would allow them to be capable of striking anywhere on the planet with some minimal degree of accuracy though such a projectile would be best used to detonate as it was entering the atmosphere, as it is unknown if they have developed a casing capable of surviving reentry, which unfortunately would also be the perfect EMP device if the warhead were a low yield with high EMP discharge capability, just the variety of warhead some scientists and experts have claimed that North Korea and Iran have perfected. This makes North Korea a threat that must be addressed and defanged as Kim Jong Un has passed all requirements at almost every level of the crazy ladder.

 

Map of Approximate Missile Ranges of North Korean Missiles

Map of Approximate Missile Ranges of North Korean Missiles

 

The one item which actually serves to make the problems stemming from North Korea and particularly Kim Jong Un’s unstable personality less of a sole responsibility of the United States is that even his presumed friends, Russia and China, cannot be completely at ease with his increasing ranges for missiles and their ability to carry ever heavier payloads while he is also perfecting miniaturizing his nuclear warheads as even they could fall on his wrong side on just that one bad hair day when he just has to launch a surprise at somebody, and whomever got his attention that morning and is within range may just win a prize care of North Korea and their crazy man, Kim Jong Un. Now since for the moment the mainland United States is beyond direct missile range and can only be struck by a satellite which would be detected long before it could be delivered and might simply prove the adequacy of perhaps some space based interception system which the United States has kept under wraps and waste a good temper tantrum and would just upset poor not-so-little Kim Jong Un even more. The real problem as we currently view this situation is it has been slowly accelerated beyond the point where the normal brakes will prevent an open military clash. This might just be what all sides desire just to get the problem of North Korea settled on terms which do not include an all-out nuclear conflict which will place civilization of two continents, Eastern Asia and Western North America, in jeopardy. Simply to prevent such a nuclear contest it might be best to defang Kim Jong Un while his fangs will cause minimal toll in human lives though the potential to sacrifice the twenty-five and a half million lives residing in and around Seoul, South Korea and endangering the fifty-one million lives in South Korea plus the one-hundred-forty million lives in Japan plus whatever additional casualties Kim Jong Un would be capable of inflicting. However, many of the nearly twenty-seven million North Korean lives which could be lost might be a lesser cost than adding the four-hundred-twenty million Americans plus another three-hundred million in Europe and whomever else would be targeted should Kim Jong Un develop full range ICBM’s and thermonuclear warheads. The death toll might be less if instead Kim Jon Un were to use EMP devices in addition to more limited use of warheads such that he would continue to have a viable threat and such attacks could leave entire continents without electricity for decades leading to mass starvation, wide spread diseases and no means of combating almost any threat as there would be no refrigeration and little to no modern life left and transportation of goods would be massively interfered as such an attack would wipe out most of the modern vehicles including the long haul trucks and diesel electric trains which includes bullet trains as well as mag lev trains. The modern world could be brought to a level similar in nature to the conditions in North Korea and Venezuela only actually worse. Such a world would be a desperate place and even more so should industry in Japan and Germany be struck, as they are the major manufacturers of the modern large electrical transformers, the items that would be most required for rebuilding the world’s electrical infrastructure. These are some of the considerations which need be faced concerning Kim Jong Un especially since his nation has little to lose from any such conflict and might be the major beneficiary as then he could use his military and strike out to conquer much of the world. The main forces of the rest of the world would be any submerged submarines that include Boomers, nuclear powered submarines that can launch nuclear missiles.

 

Nuclear Missile Carrying Nuclear Powered Submarine

Nuclear Missile Carrying Nuclear Powered Submarine

 

One would have to figure that these are the ultimate answer to any attack as there would be no opportunity for any aggressor, no matter their size, no matter where on the earth they may be. Once these submarines are given their targets, all bets are off and the aggrieving nation disappears. These ballistic missile carrying submarines, depending on class, carry between twelve to as many as twenty-four multi-warhead ballistic missiles, which they can deliver to any point on the globe. The placement and locations of these nuclear powered submarines is a well-guarded secret. Once they leave port and submerge, they remain under and often go very deep and the only proven technology for even having a remote chance for tracking these are sensitive listening devices on hunter-killer submarines, special magnetic anomaly detecting satellites and special sonar equipment on the submarine chasing ships specially designed to locate submarines. The modern submarines have extremely quiet drive systems and are coated with a rubber-like substance that is also smooth, which makes them silent killers. These submarines are just as impossible if not more difficult to locate than depicted in Hunt for Red October. They are the ultimate answer for the nations who posses them.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 25, 2017

Return of Permanent Limbo in Israel

 

The Trump opportunity has passed at least for the summer. There was the opportunity for a change in Israel and the standoff with the Arab world. The Israeli hesitation over moving the American Embassy to Jerusalem, specifically the warnings of potential violence which, according to Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, was something Israel was not prepared to face at the time forced President Trump to hesitate and at best postpone any actions on the embassy or possibly totally abandoned, time will tell. President Trump was elected President with a Republican platform which had refused to continue with the two state solution as part of its Middle East policy, a first for United States policy since the Oslo Accords were signed in September of 1993. The Republicans managed to do something which apparently far too many Israeli politicians are unprepared to do, reject the paradigm of the two state solution and accept something entirely separate. President Trump has stated even since taking office that he is ready to accept whatever decision is presentable to the individuals, which guarantees that he is open to almost any solution providing it is a workable solution. Between President Trump’s statements, the appointments made concerning Israel and the Republican platform, anything is potentially acceptable once one takes all of these particulars together and weighs all of the possibilities. Unfortunately it appears that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is not prepared to take any alternative before other issues including but not limited to Iran, Hezballah, Islamic State and the stability of the areas surrounding Israel are more secured and balanced. Netanyahu also is most concerned with the Iranian race to produce nuclear weapons and properly fears their finally becoming nuclear weapons capable, or worse, having tested and produced a nuclear weapons arsenal which would permit them to project power and terrorism throughout the entirety of the Middle East and across North Africa threatening Europe and possibly beyond to include the United States, China and even Russia. None of the current main nuclear weapons powers should consider their position secure as the potential for Iran to commit nuclear terrorism must not be considered as impossible or out of the question as such will be a definitive and dangerous possibility once Iran has produced miniaturized nuclear weaponry, something they are predicted to have the capability to produce within the next decade.

 

Another threat which Israel is facing has ties to Iran as well. Syria is allied with Iran and Hezballah which controls Lebanon under Iranian direction to the point that Hezballah commands the Military of Lebanon using their strength in the war in Syria against the Sunni rebels including the Islamic State. This conflagration which has destroyed much if not almost all of Syrian infrastructure outside of a thin strip along the Mediterranean Sea, particularly Latakia where the Russians have their active port facilities in the Mediterranean Sea. The losses being taken by Iran and Hezballah in the Syrian catastrophic civil hostilities have produced much consternation within their respective publics which is demanding good and understandable reasoning as to why they should continue to support such bloodshed. Thusfar they have not been rewarded with results which show that their involvement is of any worth as Syria is beginning to appear as a killing field where they are being asked to sacrifice for no good reason. There is a building demand that Assad be replaced allowing for an end to a seemingly endless and pointless waste of resources. The one means for making the Syrian war to appear to have an acceptable reason, at least in Lebanon as well as much of Iran and vast numbers of the IRGC and Hezballah soldiers and their families would be an expansion of the war to include a full on war with Israel. Such a war against the Zionist entity would make the efforts in Syria appear to have a payoff which would be understood and well received thus rejuvenating the support for the forces which are fighting in Syria and an excuse for the losses. Such a decision requires for Iran, as it is the Iranian leadership, the Mullahs and the Supreme Leader who decide, to decide to take such a move as they will be the ones providing the majority of the military resources should such a war be initiated. The cost of such a war for Syria would be inconsequential as much of the nation is already in ruins and most of the military supplies would be provided by Iran. On the other hand, for Hezballah such a war would be a double sided sword cutting both ways as Lebanon has not been near as torn asunder as has Syria. Any war with Israel which included Hezballah would also endanger much of the infrastructure south of the Litani River and the length of the Bekaa Valley as well as parts of Beirut as well as potentially the Beirut International Airport should it be utilized by Iran to fly in provisions for Hezballah using the airstrips of this airport.

 

Where losing men and munitions fighting in Syria is growing less and less popular, a war with Israel if it should bring destruction raining down within Lebanon itself could backfire. While it is possible to have Hezballah troops only attack Israel from areas such as across the Golan Heights, this would not guarantee that Israeli responses would only be targeting Hezballah forces in Syria and not their rocket stores and command and control headquarters within Syria. This would be a definite possibility as Hezballah has sufficient stores of rockets and missiles provided by Iran and placed under the noses of UNIFIL forces assigned by the United Nations to prevent exactly that buildup, they failed completely. These rockets pose an existential threat to Israel and should Hezballah forces be fighting Israel, even if just across the Golan Heights, Israel could not permit Hezballah to have the opportunity to choose the point at which to introduce these assets into such a conflict. In any conflict with Hezballah, Israel correctly feels that their first and most important targets are the stores of rockets and missiles, their launching facilities and the command and control nexuses in order to remove this threat from their civilians, their infrastructure and the Israeli Defense Forces. Even with the Arrow systems, the Iron Dome and David’s Sling, the well over one-hundred-thousand rockets and missiles held by Hezballah could be launched in such a manner as to overwhelm the Israeli defenses and thus inflict unacceptable damage. Where Israel has exceptional interception capabilities, no such system is one-hundred percent successful and with the numbers of weapons Hezballah alone has, not even counting the potential from Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian stores, Israel would be hard pressed to rely on interception thus only destruction of these threats before they can be utilized is the only answer.

 

There is another set of reasons which might cause Iran to seek a war with Israel, and these include Russia and the United States. The Iranians would probably desire testing President Trump as well as pressing him to take a stand one way or the other concerning supporting Israel. If Iran can show that President Trump supports Israel against them, they could attempt to portray themselves as leading the fight against the Zionists and use any United States support as proof that President Trump was fighting a war against Islam. They would use all the claims by the left and the United States liberal media who claimed that the immigration restraint against seven terror prone nations which were so labeled by the Obama Administration and simply that classification was used by President Trump for his imposing an immigration hold until proper vetting could be arranged for these nations but Iran could use the media claims of that being President Trump starting a war against Islam. This would be blown into a full-fledged campaign by President Trump and the United States in supporting Israel as simply the next step in Trump’s war on Islam which Iran would claim they and Hezballah were fighting for the entire Muslim world and in the name of the Prophet Mohammad. The Iranians could attempt to persuade some, if not all, the Gulf States to join them in this noble war against the evil Zionist entity and then attempt to pull Turkey’s Erdogan into the war using popular pressure to drag him into a war thus using his own program of using anti-Semitism to raise his own support levels. How much success Iran might have in turning the Islamic world against Israel and the United States could be debated but results would need to wait to be seen. Further, Iran could use such a war with Israel as a means of forcing Russia to take sides thus driving a wedge between Russia and the United States or driving a wedge between the United States and Israel as Trump would have to choose which side to inflame should Russia be forced to support Iran against Israel. This could lead to a whole new proxy war in the Middle East pitting the two powers, Russia and the United States on opposing sides and once again drag much, if not all, of the Arab world into the Russian sphere of influence and heighten the risk of embroiling the entire Middle East in a war even broader in scope than the 1948 War where the Arab League attempted to wipe Israel from the map. Now the idea of wiping Israel from the map is a wholly, or is it holy, Iranian concept. Iran has threatened to open a front against Israel as a means of leading the rest of the Islamic world into a general war with Israel and granting themselves with the title of the great leaders of the new Caliphate which is what they would use as their alliance’s title so as to give it an Islamic rallying cry. Iran has already made some inroads with some of the Gulf States much to the chagrin of the Saudi Royals who used to have an iron grip on these states.

 

Iranian Crescent Resulting from an Iranian Surge Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad Connecting Iran to Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon

Iranian Crescent Resulting from an Iranian Surge
Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad Connecting
Iran to Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon

 

Further reasoning behind Iran taking the lead in a charge to try and bring down Israel is to bring themselves to the fore of the Islamic world and to attempt to sell their brand of Shia Islam as the real bold, brave and action center for all Islam and thus start to turn the Islamic world from Sunni to Shiite. Iran has had this dream to form a crescent of Shia states across the heart of the Middle East, their Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon crescent which was looking good until Syria disintegrated. What Iran needs now is some means by which to force much of the Syrian resistance to come across to their side and thus reestablish their hold on most if not all of Syria. Iran might even try to win the Kurdish to their side by sacrificing a small section of northwestern Iran and northern Iraq along with some of northeastern Syria forming a Kurdish nation state if they will ally and take up Shia Islam. This would sandwich the Sunnis in central Iraq placing them in a very precarious position which just might force many to accept Shia Islam in exchange for protection from Islamic State. This would leave Iran with a smaller set of opponents to their taking the lead as the great power in Islam allowing their reestablishment of the power which once was Persia. With such a success and Russian backing, the Iranians might even be able to really crack the back of Sunni Islam and convert the Muslim Brotherhood over to Shia Islam if Iran would work with them to remove President Sisi in Egypt and place the Muslim Brotherhood back into power in Egypt which could be assisted with pressure from the south using their friendly relations with the Sudan as their wedge. From this they could then take control of the Horn of Africa and complete their vanquishing of their opposition in Yemen and now have Saudi Arabia surrounded. All of this is speculation and highly unlikely but this is also seen by the Mullahs as potentially plausible if only they could gain an upper hand along the Gulf States and win over many in the Islamic world through a war with Israel. The one catch there is that any war with Israel promises to be as short as Israel can possibly make it which would very possibly not turn out so well for Hezballah or Lebanon. The only thing that Iran would not be risking is the infrastructure of Syria. Also, getting Russia to work against Israel is iffy at best as Russia and Israel have already been working in cooperation sharing intelligence and Israel warning the Russians before striking at targets in Syria or near the Syrian Lebanese border in the Bekaa Valley. Add to that the news that the missile shot from the sky by an Israeli Arrow System was a Russian made SA-5 missile proving that the Israeli military technology is everything it is cracked up to be and this should make Putin wary of any plans to go against Israel. Iran would be treading dangerously trying to force such a conflict and may find they could lose Russian assistance in Syria and that Russia might just take Western Syrian coastal cities as their own just as they did the Crimea with one difference, Israel would welcome Russia as their new friend in the region and that would leave Iran weaker for their efforts.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Next Page »

Blog at WordPress.com.