Beyond the Cusp

January 8, 2019

The Opposing Powers Regarding Syria and Israel

 

There is going to be one of the strangest alignments when Syria becomes an even greater blood-bath. The problems will spill over into Iraq, mostly in the northern regions, and Russia is going to be dependent and thus in a strange alignment with Israel in order to slow and eventually repulse the Iranian attempts at hegemony. The other force which will be adding in no small manner will be Turkey as they attempt to sweep the Kurds off the map in northern Syria and may make a fatal mistake and take their fight with the Kurds into Iraq. The Kurdish forces in Iraq are the same forces that largely were responsible for the defeat of the Islamic State. Their major mistake was not declaring their independence immediately after the highly favorable call for the establishment of Kurdistan back with the September of 2017 referendum. The main problem the Kurds will face is their lack of adequate air forces, but on the ground they proved to be formidable fighters. Yes, we know that Turkish President Erdogan promised President Trump he would only fight the Islamic State and related terrorists. The problem is Erdogan defines all Kurds, even the infants, as dangerous terrorist forces. President Trump is fully aware that despite Turkey presumably being a NATO ally, they are no friend of the United States and that Erdogan sees himself as the great new leader who will be the initiator of the new Ottoman Empire and has designs on Aleppo in Syria and Mosul in Iraq. Hopefully Erdogan realizes that for him to take Mosul he will first be required to fight through the Kurdish forces in the North and then be required to take Mosul from Iraqi forces who are backed by Iranian forced from the IRGC. These are some of the elite forces from the IRGC which are holding Mosul.

 

Meanwhile, the Iranian regime is facing some turbulence on the home front as a plurality of the people desire returning to Western styled Democratic governance. The Iranian economy was not as sturdy and thriving as the Europeans and others claimed it was and the American sanctions are doing their intended effect and doing so well. The slacking wages, rising unemployment, farmers facing under-valued crop prices, and retirees joining the farmers in massive demonstrations in Tehran and Mashhad (Iran’s second largest city) have shaken many a Middle East expert. There is a pair of videos plus many pictures of the demonstrations, the noisy demonstrations. These are simply the latest round of demonstrations. They are following a general worker strike, at least two of them one of which even the taxi drivers joined bringing the capital city and others to a virtual standstill. Before that was a student’s demonstration, it drew support from many workers, including salesmen and many middle-aged men who were witnessed in this set of protests. Basically, the Iranian people want to end the Islamic revolution and instead have an economic revolution which empowers them to improve their lives.

 

Meanwhile, Iran is still making attempts, largely successful, to be the proxy rulers in Iraq and in Lebanon. In Iraq they are simply using the mostly, if not totally, Shiite government as their sock-puppet having it execute their desires which was largely behind the attacks on the Kurds which were carried out largely by militias and IRGC forces. In Lebanon, the Iranian control is far more basic. Nasrallah runs Hezballah, Hezballah basically is the Lebanese government and largely controls its military and Nasrallah takes his orders from the Mullahs of Iran. Iran also holds sway over Gaza with Islamic Jihad, their original agents in Gaza, and Hamas recently coming on-board and receiving additional rocket motors and the plans for machining additional motors providing them with enhanced range which they now threaten Haifa, Jerusalem and Tel Aviv plus all the places inbetween. The latest threats have come from the mouth of Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad Nakhalah who has been threatening that a new war is coming against Israel and this war will be unlike the failures of the past as this time Israel is going to be attacked from the north and south at the same time. One might even conclude by the way he spoke that he was including the Quds Force, a special group from the IRGC specifically trained to take Jerusalem and fight against Israel, attacking over the Golan Heights. One can be assured that during his visit to Tehran and meeting the leadership of the Iranian tyranny, he received guarantees that they would instruct Hezballah to support whatever may be coming from Gaza. He made references to the existence of numerous infiltration tunnels which Israel has yet to find and how the attackers from the North (Lebanon) would swamp the Israeli forces in the north by coming out behind them, between them and possibly within their formations and surprising the IDF and defeating them handily while taking numerous Israeli cities at the same time. Perhaps we should thank him for the warnings.

 

This is all on top of our article from January 6, 2019, titled Iran on the Offensive, in which we discussed the intent by Iran to send warships into the North Atlantic Ocean, very likely close to the United States’ eastern seaboard. What is their intent? Well, it could be to attack the United States at the same time as they unleash their terror forces against Israel and who knows what other surprises the Iranians might have in store for the world. We know that they have worked on making EMP devices which are not nuclear in nature with a fair degree of success. We have always concluded that they must have numerous nuclear weapons by this point in time as they have been working on this since the 1990’s and this would provide Iran with an EMP device capable of potentially threatening much of the North American electrical grid. The problem is attempting to predict what a group of aged Mullahs with grandiose dreams that their forces are invincible and that Allah will double the effect of their efforts and that they are the ones who will rule the world. But there are any numbers of items which make the rulers of the Iranian theocracy even more dangerous at these times.

 

First and foremost is the unrest at home, knowing that they no longer have the protection of an American President who believes much the same as do they. They are completely aware that President Trump would love nothing more than to assist their overthrow by their own people with minimal if any American assistance beyond providing the weapons required to the right people. Should the people take to the streets en-mass as happened in 2009, President Trump will be siding with the people of Iran, and not its leadership and the enforcement terror system upon which they rely to be a constant check threatening the people. Further, they know that President Trump has turned the inhibiting of Iran curbing their meddling beyond their borders to those in the Arab world along with Russia who have the most to lose should Iran complete their Shiite Crescent and all but engulf Saudi Arabia and gain control of the Straight of Hormuz where much of the Arab oil passes and the Bab al-Mandab (see map below) choking off the Red Sea making the Suez Canal useless and destroying a large part of the Egyptian economy. Using these two choke points, Iran can cut off virtually all oil shipments from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to the rest of the world, mostly Europe, and with the straight at the southern exit for the Red Sea, they prevent 90% of the shipping between Europe and Asia with the sole other route using the Black Sea and then overland. Of course, neither of these causes too much consternation for the United States, as she is virtually energy independent and can ship to Europe from the East Coast and Asia from their west coast and still have the Panama Canal to go between the two great oceans. Still, closing such strategic waterways would be the quickest means of provoking a war which Iran would likely lose.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

They are aware that their best chance is a knockout first strike decapitating the United States and then economically crippling her. The first is accomplished with a number of nuclear tipped missiles targeting both Washington D.C. as well as New York and then launching a few long-range rockets set to detonate nuclear warheads designed for low yield and a massive EMP Pulse approximately three-hundred miles above Kansas City and allow the destruction of much of the electronics across North America and the short-circuiting of the majority of the large power transformers destroying the electronic grid to such an extent that it may take as long as fifty years to fully repair and in the meantime at least three-quarters of the United States and rest of the effected regions populations will die. Before these people suffer death by any of any various means, they can be satisfied knowing that absolutely nothing of Tehran will remain and those who sent these terrible horrors onto their shores will have been hunted down and killed, possibly too quickly for many, but dead just the same. The United States Navy and other military assets around the world are more than sufficient to end this war with an American victory over Iran. The horrors come from the suffering these conflicts will bring on to so many lives. Still, there is some dark recess in the minds of the ruling Mullahs in Iran who honestly believe that by bringing such horrors unto the world that they are simply preparing the way for the Mahdi and their promised Caliphate where they will rule the world or end up with their perpetual virgins in whatever afterlife they dream over. For so many of us in the developed world the concept of conquering the world died off quite a while back and was completely destroyed by World Wars I and II. What we find incomprehensible is that there are people on the Earth today who still see themselves or those who follow them ruling the world imposing their singular religion upon every person living on the planet and if they refuse putting them to the sword, a nice way of saying kill them, even if it means sawing their heads off with a small knife and taking five to ten minutes to complete the task. The religion which the majority of those with these delusions is Islam; either Sunni or Shiite, but Islam. And, yes, there are those such as the Iranian Mullahs, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Saudi Royals as well as the leaders of Wahhabi Islam, numerous different schools of Sunni and Shiite Islam and a number of dictatorial powers many of which see themselves as ruling over the final result of Communism which will prove triumphant in the end, or so they believe. There are probably a collection of other crazies who actually see themselves ruling the world, as for us, we would be glad for a small patch of the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea ruled by Israel.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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November 7, 2017

President Trump Can Have an Iraq Base for Free

 

True, the base would cost to build but that could be performed by the Army Corps of Engineers. The beauty of this plan is that the United States would actually get three bases for the cost of their construction and a small additional price of repair and upgrade of the Mosul Dam and power station. President Trump could place a nice United States Army Base just southwest of Mosul, a large United States Marine Base and Training Area east of Kirkuk and a wonderful Air Force Base southwest of Van bordering Lake Van allowing for swimming and other recreational activities. These could all come true just for the building and then the United States would have the power and reach desired in the Middle East. The only catch is that the United States would have to back the Kurdish independence movement for all the Kurdish people. Those Kurds residing outside the area and desiring to relocate could be assisted by the Kurdish State and any sympathetic nations and people; and by this, we are not claiming it need be the United States. What additionally the United States could do would be to move to protect any Kurds who might face persecution resulting from the establishing of Kurdistan. Currently the only Kurds to have actually signaled a desire for independence have been the Kurds of Iraq. Still, the Kurds in Syria might be considered to be included along with the areas they control including Raqqa and Kobane, two of the cities that the Kurds bled deeply to take from the Islamic State just as their brothers and sisters bled for Mosul and Kirkuk in Iraq. Their sacrifices to push the Islamic State from these places should be recognized and used for a reward for their efforts. Unfortunately, all the world is simply happy to walk away and ignore the Kurdish desires for their own state knowing full well that once the world turns their backs on the Kurds, the result will be exactly the same as after World War I when they were denied their own free lands as promised by the British, they were persecuted by the very nations their lands were divided between. The world turning their backs on the Kurds this time will be double the crime as they have fought for their independence and then fought to vanquish the Islamic State and now they will be left to fight against the combined forces of Iraq, Turkey and Iran. This time the result will be nothing short of a genocidal effort just as was unsuccessfully attempted against Israel in 1948-9 immediately after Israel declared their independence.

 

Kurdish Regions and Proposed Greater Kurdistan

Kurdish Regions and Proposed Greater Kurdistan

 

The world has a habit of using people, often with promises of independence and other pie-in-the-sky promises only to be left hanging in the wind subject often to oppression and even genocidal efforts. There are other peoples around the world who have been ignored or abandoned. The Berber Tribes of northwestern Africa come to mind. Another is the entire nation of Tibet which was swallowed whole by China in October of 1950 without even a meeting at the United Nations. Sure, the United States claims they stand with Taiwan. We are willing to bet that should China move on Taiwan, other than a few naval maneuvers attempting to rattle China into a withdrawal and demands made in Washington, unless a very unique and strong individual was in the White House, nothing more would result and Taiwan would simply be the next Tibet. The problem with this is that would only serve to embolden China and Russia and who can even imagine whom else, possibly Iran or Turkey. The Philippines would become very nervous and try to make agreements with China to avoid becoming their next victim, which may or may nor work. Russia would likely swallow up the Ukraine while Washington was fast asleep and not defending their friends. The world will not pass up opportunities should a weak leader sit in the Oval Office. South Korea might face an all on assault from North Korea. In such a world, Japan would nuclear up really fast and probably be willing to face sanction just to openly test a nuclear weapon, likely a thermonuclear weapon, just to place fear in the hearts of any who might be viewing their Islands as their next victims. Iran would definitely complete their desired Shiite Crescent across the Middle East and may even move on the Saudi Arabian oil fields which they have eyed for years. This has been part of the reason for their moves in Iraq and Yemen and even interests in Djibouti. Our world is potentially an extremely volatile place. There are fuses all over the world and some of them are already smoldering just requiring somebody to blow on them to light them. That brings us back to the Kurds and the present situation.

 

The Kurds are the next step in repairing the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The world after World War I, or we should say the Allied Powers, decided that it would be best if the MENA lands were divided along arbitrary lines with no regard as to tribal regions or any other logical or reasoned boundaries. Instead, they decided that by having the region divided into nations where there were tribes traditionally at war with one another and where the larger tribes were broken up between several nations preventing any form of unity. The Kurds were divided between four nations, Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran. Turkey and Iraq have both attempted ethnic cleansing of their Kurds or, at the very least, thinning the population and suppression of rights or political power. In Syria since the dissolution of the government and the Civil War, the Kurds were the sole people to take control of their own area, protect their people, and enforce laws. They repulsed attacks by al-Qaeda and ISIS and eventually assisted in the Raqqa push which finished the Islamic State in Syria. In Iraq it were the Kurdish forces which drove the Islamic State out of Kirkuk and opened the door to Mosul and were instrumental in the final push to cleanse Islamic State from Mosul and were placed under demands by the United States to permit Iraqi forces to take part in that effort. Guess who got stuck with the final door-to-door fighting to rid the city of the remnants and remove the traps and explosives left behind. That is right, the Kurdish Peshmerga Militias. What has happened in Iraq after these efforts by the Kurds? The United States pulled their air support and with Iranian air support and IRGC troops supporting and armor they have pushed the Kurds out of Kirkuk and Mosul and will continue to push the Kurds and probably then start their ethnic cleansing, the start of a genocidal campaign against the Kurdish People in Iraq and then on to the Kurdish in Syria and then Turkey will erase their Kurdish presence and a proud people will be torn from the world because nobody cared. Well, the Kurds assisted all the efforts requested of them in Syria and in Iraq, now it is time for the world to honor Kurdish independence. After all, if the Kurdish People are going to have to fight the combined Arab armies, at least make it a fight for their independence. President Trump, recognize Kurdistan now and even assist their efforts with at least minimal air support if not more. They deserve the opportunity and the support of those whom they fought instead of the United States committing tens of thousands of American soldiers and saved another war for the United States in the Middle East.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

October 18, 2017

If the World Was Serious About Preventing an Iran War

 

The actions over the past few weeks have once again shown the lack of any shred of serious concern over preventing Iran taking control of the Middle East and the oil resources held there. Say what you want about how Saudi Arabia can stand against Iran, that is a pipe dream and everybody knows that. The only hope the Saudi military would have against Iran would be if they held a parade contest and even then, Iran puts on a pretty good imitation of the old Soviet Union style of parade, the Saudis just look impressive in their fancy dress uniforms. The Saudis even with Israel assistance would still end up losing the oil fields as the Israeli sphere of operability has limitations which is why Israel is considered vulnerable to Iranian nuclear threats. Obviously, many of the signs that the world really was, the United States in particularly, interested in preventing a world war started due to Iranian threats well beyond simply the Middle East would be done secretively, there are still some steps which would necessarily be committed in plain sight. The first would be some passive verbal support for the response of the Kurdish referendum praising their desire to be granted the nation they had been promised by the allied victors of World War I.

 

Please do understand that much of the problems in the Middle East stem directly from the results imposed after World War I and much of that blame lies with two men whose names are on the very treaty behind these problems, the Sykes-Picot Agreement. British diplomat Mark Sykes and a French counterpart, François Georges-Picot, with some small input and suggestions from Russia and the complete hands-off support of the United States trying to stay above the fray which adds their name to the perfidy, drew the lines of control for much of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) dividing the lands into areas of control with no regard for tribal and ethnic regions. This action was intentional as they were attempting to assure themselves that the Middle East would never become a major power in the world. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran were the three places which were not affected as they remained as they were or were beyond the scope of the Allied powers. The Allies performed a similar arrangement when dividing up the Austria-Hungarian Empire just as they did the Ottoman Empire. The British and French went a step or two further by making the chance for an opportunity for the Jews and the Kurds to gain independence and have the nation that each was promised all but impossible, and undefendable if either managed to gain their necessary foothold. To restrict the Jews, this was accomplished by having the British all but strangle their ability to make Aliya to the Holy Lands; and to the Kurds, they divided their populations between Iraq, Syria and Turkey leaving a fourth in Iran. If these areas had been permitted the Kurdish People, there is a good chance that Kurdistan would have a democratic form of governance and would be providing a perfect staging area for much of the problems over the past century in the Middle East. They also would likely have been an inspiration to the peoples of their neighboring nations to pursue a more liberal and democratic path after World War II, but that would have empowered the Middle East; and the British and French were seeking anything but such an occurrence.

 

Still, it is not yet too late to mend long ago made mistakes and grant things promised in bad faith. If only the advisors from the United States State Department were not infected with an anti-democratic bend and steeped in the sour soil of Arab oil and Islamic supremacy. The State Department is neutral as it cares not which form of Islam, Shiite or Sunni, wins, just as long as there is an Islamic Arab force with which to try and impose their view of a just world. Their current favors bow to Iran thanks to the previous eight years of having their positions sold to the Iranians first. Still, there is the beating of a Saudi Arabian old heart and a soft spot for Egypt and the Palestinians and a culture steeped on anti-Israelism, anti-Zionism and thus anti-Semitism. For the Department of State, the only good Jew is one completely devoted to the State, the Democrat Party and completely ignorant in the Constitution, Bill of Rights and associated ideals of freedom. The State Department is probably the most anti-Trump area in the entirety of the government and the most intractable as well. Trump gave the job of Secretary of State to an old friend and we hope they have an understanding that as Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson is supposed to talk the talk and walk the walk completely in agreement with the garbage spouted by the State Department “deep state” and add his own Saudi Arabian twist as this is expected from one who spent their life being entertained, wined and dined by the Saudi Royals. Secretary Tillerson was likely told not to get upset if it appeared he was being ignored often, his job was to engage the “deep state” people in the State Department and make it appear they had a voice and were being effective while Trump went his own way. That would be the perfect situation of management control and if such is the case; it will be studied in business and political science classes in the future.

 

We have already heard how the State Department wants the Kurds to just shut their mouths, sit down and allow the adults to trample them into the dust of the Middle East. Thus far, the only nation to support the Kurdish referendum was Israel. Israel also has strong and good relations with the Syrian faction of the Kurds. The Kurds were the fighters who stopped ISIS, back when Islamic State was ISIS, in the battle for Kobane where the Kurds had stopped the ISIS advance and were the first to do so and then, with some United States air support, the Kurds turned the tide and then cleared Kobane of ISIS presence and pushed them southward, again with marginal American air support. This was the story in Syria which has one last piece in the puzzle, when the Syrian Kurds turned the tide; they received some assistance from the Iraqi Kurds which quickened their push. Meanwhile, in Iraq, the Kurdish Peshmerga Militias stopped the spread of the Islamic State in two crucial battles in Kirkuk and Erbil turning them back and, in a long and brutal series of assaults; the Kurds opened the route into Mosul and established a foothold in this crucial city. With Peshmerga Kurdish assistance, the Iraqi Army with America air support, tactical planning, artillery support, and America Special Forces implanted within and with an undisclosed number of American troops taking the south flank and the Kurdish Peshmerga taking the north flank, the Iraqi Army, according to all media reports, took Mosul in a valiant effort showing great heroism and resourcefulness in a brutal fight of uncommon ferocity lasting almost three days. The Kurdish Peshmerga Militias then spent the next two weeks clearing the remainder of Mosul in door-to-door fighting mostly in the northern regions. The absolute bravery and valor of the Iraqi Army is most definitely unquestioned, or so the media tells. There was a reason that the State Department and the Pentagon insisted that the Iraqi Army be credited with taking Mosul, and now for the revelation.

 

The crux of the situation is that around Mosul are numerous critical items. There is the Mosul Dam and hydroelectric generation facility. The dam is in need of upgrading and desperately in need of repair which it will hopefully receive before it breaks. This would be best handled by some governance which actually cares about the people. Then there are the Mosul oil fields which produce the second greatest amount of oil in Iraq. Finally, Mosul is a central point where the majority of roads meet and thus makes it the Bastogne of the Iraqi battlefield. In Bastogne, Colonel McAuliffe commanding the 101st Airborne Division was surrounded by German armor who pounded the city for twenty-four hours plus. When offered to surrender and save his troops, the Colonel answered “Nuts!” Nuts is what the United States and the Kurds are if they permit Iran and Iraq to retain control over the Mosul area. This was a Kurdish area which Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein attempted to denude it of its Kurdish population and move Sunni Arabs into the former Kurdish homes. The Kurds have permitted their people to return to their homes with their intent on retaining Mosul. The West and the World would sleep a lot sounder with Mosul firmly in Kurdish hands. For this and a myriad of other reasons, the United States would be best served to ignore the State Department and their claim that in the name of peace, Iran, through Iraq, should be permitted their claim on Mosul and the Kurds denied such lands or any lands and be left split between four nations, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey to live under the cruel rule of their oppressors. The State Department gives the Kurdish the same treatment as they have the Jews, believing them both to be merely capricious little children too ignorant or unintelligent to know what is best for them.

 

The reality, as usual, is the complete opposite of the State Department advice. The Kurds could and would be an ally to the forces of freedom, liberty, capitalism and democratic rule. They would also be a friend of Israel, which we admit does cloud our vision, but such a clouded vision is still a far bit clearer than those at the State Department. The next path at present would be to make plans for the recognition of a Greater Kurdistan (map below). That would include northeastern Syria, Northern Iraq reaching southward to include the Mosul areas, northwestern Iran and parts of southern Turkey. In order to make such a nation possible, the United States would need to provide the basic aircraft for the Kurds to have their own airborne protection. The training should be provided by either the United States, Israel or both, for the pilots to fly these aircraft with the most capable given actual air defense dogfighting training. They would need armored vehicles which some might be provided by Israel and the rest by the United States as well as some training in their use and how to defend them against anti-armor weapons and how to implement them into a combat scenario. Finally, imbedding some Special Forces trainers initially plus air assistance as the initial founding of Kurdistan, no matter the promises or treaties involved, will result in a combined assault of the nascent nations by at the least four and as many as twelve Arab, Turkish and Iranian armies attempting to drive them into the ground, there is no sea this time, and murder every single Kurdish person they can find. The reason that all the Kurdish areas must be included in the founding of Kurdistan is because any left outside of the country will be slaughtered by their own countrymen as an example to the Kurds as to what will happen to them if they lose their war to keep their nation. Israel can attest to the fury that will be shown any Kurdish nation once founded, and it matters not when such may occur, the vile spite which will be shown as violence is unfurled against the Kurdish People wherever they may be found, will be equal to the fury thrown against Israel and which still fills many Arab and Islamic hearts towards Israel and the Jews. With American and Israeli assistance, this idea of a real and honest Kurdistan which will be free, democratic in nature, and with a vibrant economy can and will be established. Should Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan become enraged and threaten to quit NATO, that would simply be one more advantage of our proposal, one that should be gladly and immediately accepted.

 

Our Idea for a Proposed Greater Kurdistan

Our Idea for a Proposed Greater Kurdistan

 

Additional advantages of establishing the promised Kurdish nation is it would provide Israel with an emergency airbase which would place some needed cooling on the Iranian eagerness to destroy Israel. The Kurds would necessarily be allied with Israel and the West as the Arab world and Arab League would treat them as a pariah and constantly be a threat to their survival. A Kurdish State would also work to keep a check on Turkey and perhaps the Sunni Muslims in Iraq might seek the Kurdish protection from their Shia dominated government in Iraq, though perhaps protecting the Sunni in Iraq might be a stretch. In the end, a Kurdish nation in the heart of the Middle East with democratic governance and a capitalist economy and the standard of living which such provides, they would be an example of what each of these Arab states could be with a government which serves the people instead of enslaves the people. Kurdistan could be the beginning of the reformation which so many have written about but none have shown any means by which such could occur. Those who have claimed that an effective example would be Israel missed the mark as Israelis are seen as outsiders, intruders and anything but what the Arabs should emulate. The Kurds are Sunni Muslims, not Jews, nor Catholics, not Buddhists but real and longstanding followers of Islam and amongst those who surrendered to Allah and they could show that surrender to Allah and following Islam does not mean one must live off the crumbs doled by a dictator but that one can be modern and enjoy the spoils of life while still being good and practicing Muslims. That might just be the greatest prize which might come from Kurdistan, and that could change the world.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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