Beyond the Cusp

December 5, 2017

Partisanship and North Korean Threat

 

The November 28, 2017, ICBM missile test by North Korea of a Hwasong-15 missile, the first test of this missile, was a development which forced the world, the United States particularly, to be placed on notice that Kim Jong-un just entered near parity with all other nations in launch capabilities. The missile reached an altitude of around 4475 km (2780 miles) and traveled some 950 km downrange with a flight time of almost one hour. If fired on a more traditional attack trajectory, then the Hwasong-15 would easily be able to reach anywhere in the United States and the world (see map below for ranges of previous tests including the Hwasong-14 ICBM). This latest missile is considered to be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. Whether North Korea has the technology to produce a tactically usable warhead has been debated by Pentagon and CIA personnel. The two questions which would require North Korea to be capable of making a tactically usable weapon come down to miniaturization of an actual weapon to sufficiently small size and weight, and survivability of reentry while retaining all capabilities. Most estimates grant the miniaturization part of the process, though some still have their doubts, but the jury is still out over the survivability part of the equation. We believe that North Korea has likely solved all of these problems and had done so even before Kim Jong-un came to power and he simply lacked the missile for delivery of the package. Now he has all the elements necessary making production and distribution of the missiles and warheads is all Kim Jong-un requires to have the ability to threaten the world whenever he chooses.

 

Hwasong-14 ICBM Estimated Range

Hwasong-14 ICBM Estimated Range

 

President Trump made a statement on the economy and tax cuts but began the media meeting with a short mention of the North Korean missile test in the video below. The remainder of his talk he stressed that the Democrat leaders of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, and the Senate, Chuck Schumer, were absent from the meeting to which they were invited for a discussion with the President and their Republican counterparts. The President noted that the Democrats and Republicans are far apart in their ideas for the country and the direction it should be required to move. The main differences were defined as crime, immigration and national defense and how these issues should affect the budget and the issue of tax cuts and simplification. It was obvious that this meeting with the media had been planned for addressing economic priorities and that the President knew and was well prepared to make hay out of the Democrat leadership refusal to join him just to be harangued over their positions. Sometimes a small shame is preferable to a drawn out spectacle, and the President is long on spectacle and thus far short on production. This has mostly to do with two simple facts, one blaming the Democrat Party and the other the Republican Party.

 

 

We will return to the budget, taxes and the divided Congress and nation, but first a short trip to the United Nations where the Security Council held an emergency meeting on North Korea and their Ballistic Missile Launch. Below is a video about said meeting with commentary from United States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley as well as the Ambassadors from Japan, Great Britain, China, Russia and South Korea. The approximately one hour meeting spent much time on the seriousness of the breaking of the United Nations placed limitations on North Korea. The Breaking of this treaty is a serious and threatening action which requires the United Nations to take steps. The estimate was given that if flown on a standard trajectory it would have a range in excess of 13000 kilometers. The polar circumference of the globe is 39,931 kilometers which means that this North Korean ICBM could readily strike anywhere over around two-thirds of the planet with Africa and South America being the only continents not mostly within range and leaving the southern most parts of Australia beyond the missile range. This missile is the game changer which President Trump had set as one of the parameters of the North Korean capabilities which would force the United States to act. The other items included miniaturized warhead capability and reentry-hardened capability, both of which may already have been realized. The problem is without an actual successful deployment of a nuclear weapon on an ICBM, hopefully into an empty part of the oceans and after warnings with adequate time for ships exiting the effected area, there is no means of actually verifying these last two items.

 

 

The meeting was as much of a punch-down on the Democrats and list of their opposing attitudes for the future of the United States. The fact is that the Democrat Party members in Congress, both the House and Senate, will vote almost exclusively as a single entity opposing everything and anything which President Trump or the Republicans attempt to pass as legislation. The President also took a jab at the media for their misreporting on his words parsing his words looking for any single misstep to flaunt before the people. The recent Senate passage of tax reform legislation was a perfect display of both problems faced by President Trump and the shortfall of the Republican leadership in and outside of Congress. The tax cuts were passed without a single Democrat voting in favor, not a single Democrat Senator voting favorably. This has become the expected voting by the Democrats where their leadership has taken an extreme position of complete and total opposition. The sole example of the Republican opposition of President Obama and his legislation was against Obamacare, otherwise the Republicans were permitted to vote their conscience and representing the desires and needs of their constituents. Not so from the Democrat Party which has decided that everything passed which was not of their drafting will be opposed totally and completely until the Republicans realize the error of their ways as the majority party and allow the Democrats, who are in the minority and do not hold the White House, to write and pass into law everything according to their demands and ideas. Very simply stated, the Democrats have decided that only their party may lead the country and they will oppose everything not of their authorship. That is more dysfunction than principled stance. A principled stance would permit those in the party who felt that something written by the other party was worthy, could support that legislation. That is no longer permitted by the Democrat Party and any Democrat voting for any legislation will not be permitted funds from the central party and may face party sponsored opposition in the primaries. That is not the actions of a functional party, that is the attempt of the few to assume all-powerful positions given even the slightest opportunity.

 

The other side of the coin has exactly the opposite problem, as there are a group of Republicans, specifically in the Senate, who willingly oppose the Party leadership and especially the President and his proposals by refusing to pass necessary legislation. Even this tax legislation was held up by the ‘Never Trumpsters’ until they were permitted to weaken some parts and add their own pet propositions which were not desired by the President as his aim was to simplify the tax code and this small set of demands accomplished the opposite. These are the same Republicans who while guaranteed their legislation to repeal Obamacare was guaranteed under President Obama passed legislation calling for exactly that over one hundred times yet now that such legislation would be received with great enthusiasm by President Trump, this small group of anti-Trump Republicans who believe that only political functionaries such as themselves should be permitted to seek the White House, have refused to try and repeal Obamacare now. These few recalcitrant Republican Senators, which include a former losing Presidential candidate, believe their positions are more popular than those upon which the President of the United States campaigned. These problematic Republicans could guarantee that President Trump would be reelected simply passing two or three of the Presidential programs, tax reform, border wall and stronger immigration vetting, to make the Presidential 2020 campaign one based on accomplishments. They appear to prefer he fail and the Democrats gain control. This may be because they find it easier to oppose from the minority than act as a majority and take responsibility for the country and the needs of the people. So the two problems the nation is facing are the complete opposition by the Democrats and the lack of unity in the Republicans. There will always be those who side with the other side and others who insist on the limelight not capable of sharing center stage. If they only would realize that they are but the clown left to entertain before the adults take the stage, perhaps they would act responsibly for a change.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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September 20, 2017

The Trump, Pelosi, Schumer Fallout

 

Did former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi really believe that there would be no fallout from working with President Trump? Did Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer really think that there would be no fallout from working with President Trump? Then again, did President Trump really believe their would be no difficulties once he deserted his base of support and courted with those considered the heart of the enemy camp? And then there are the initial signals from the new direction, the change from confrontation to cooperation. The biggest sign that there is trouble in Potomac River City was the comment by President Trump that, “the wall will come later, we’re right now renovating large sections of wall, massive sections, making it brand new.” Many of us will claim very simply that we have heard this song and seen this dance number before from President Ronald Reagan through President George W. Bush. The Democrat promise that if you give them amnesty now they will gladly build your wall on the border later has worked every time they have pushed it before, it will probably work now as well. The problem with President Trump is that he knows little to nothing about political history and is like a neophyte seeing all of this for the first time. The fact is that most of his Cabinet are also new to politics as many are from the military or business world and not exactly long standing political experts. But there has been more in commentary from both sides.

 

From the left we have Murshed Zaheed of CREDO Action claiming that the California and New York representatives, indicating Pelosi and Schumer, were “out of touch with the zeitgeist of the progressive movement.” But wait, there’s more! Democratic Representative from Virginia, Gerry Connolly, warned that dealings with the President was unwise stating, “Let’s not fool ourselves, he is this person we know, and I just think there must be both political and moral limitations with how far we’re willing to cooperate with that.” From a different Democrat viewpoint veteran Democratic strategist Rodell Mollineau stated, “We might have to deal with this guy for four years. What can we do during that time to save America?” Imagine that, there is somebody with a touch of reason from amongst the fury and anger we have seen on the college campuses and social media. Still, it is kind of reassuring that the Democrats appear to be as good with their communications as are the Republicans. Talking of the Republicans, Representative Steven King, a pro-Trump Congressman from Iowa, put it like this commenting on what will come should the wall not be delivered as promised, “The base will leave him. They can’t support him anymore.” Apparently, Representative King has doubts that the Trump assurances that there are sections being renovated, upgraded and being made brand new will ring all that well out in the midlands and he is very probably correct. The actual test will come down the road, just like it always has and it will be a concrete, easy to measure means, simply whether or not the Border Wall, an impenetrable (or at least excessively difficult) border system guarding from above and below ground, in the waters and the highest mountain tops, the open plains and the deep woods gets constructed and proves its mettle against the illegal immigrants.

 

The Betrayers Trump, McConnell, Pelosi, Schumer

The Betrayers Trump, McConnell, Pelosi, Schumer

 

President Trump sent the DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) to the Congress for them to consider and decide whether to codify President Obama’s Executive Order into legislation and return it then to President Trump for his final ruling by one of three ways, a straight veto, signed into law or using a pocket veto which by ignoring to take any position for ten days allowing it to be vetoed through inaction and presumably avoiding making an actual decision and avoiding the scowls and reprobations of the media. Needless to say, whatever choice President Trump might take, the media will make him seem like the scourge of humanity. The only way out is if the Congress does not manage to pass a DACA Bill. Since we can count on the Democrats to vote almost unanimously to codify President Obama’s order and the Never Trumpers to assist them plus the Republicans who supported amnesty from the start will be sufficient to pass some form of amnesty with little to no difficulty. The Democrats were chomping at the bit to get this handed to them and all but immediately pass it back to Trump all formalized with the assist of not too few Republicans. One must wonder what President Trump wanted from this entire scenario of including Democrats except if he wanted to appear to be working with the Democrats for some reason, possibly to aggravate the Republicans as punishment for their inability to cooperate with the President on repeal and replace Obamacare and leaving town without even giving the President even a single tip of their hat concerning his tax simplification and reduction plans before taking the first flight out of town in mid-August. Maybe President Trump has learned a thing or two and perhaps he is being played by the Democrats, only time will tell.

 

Something tells us it is going to be an interesting four years and the next Presidential election will be even more interesting. Watching Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren battle for the senior circuit position in the Democrat Party while there will be the new young guns shooting for the stars hoping that at least one will have what it takes to challenge the senior circuit. There are some placing the early wagers on Senator Elect from California Kamala Harris as the young and energetic new face being groomed for Presidential run in 2020. Then there will be plenty more infighting within the Republican Party as Senator John McCain attempts to prove that he deserves to be the Republican candidate in 2020. He truly believes that he deserves a second shot at the brass ring. There is nothing sadder than an old guard captain who refuses to understand when he would be best served simply hanging on to the position he holds, if he can. His pouty child act might just cost him his Senate gig in 2022, especially if he were to replace Trump in 2020 and then lose a second run for the office of President. What would happen if both major parties tear themselves to pieces and in the interim numerous new faces from people who have never been in politics come from nowhere and make the noise necessary that the majority in the Congress shifts in an entirely new direction. Imagine a Congress is 2020 made up of a majority of new faces belonging to neither party and then it would matter not who wins the Presidency. That would present a whole new dawn for America if only the people have the bravery and fortitude to take back their nation.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 20, 2017

There is a Disease Within American Jewry

 

American Jewry is four-fifths Liberal-Leftist, three-twentieths Conservative and one-twentieth undefined independents. This was proven not with the initial first election of Barack Obama but the around three-quarters of American Jewry who actively voted and supported President Obama’s reelection. These were Jews who supported a candidate purely along political lines. The fact that President Obama in his first term proved beyond any doubt that he was virulently anti-Israel, was anti-Semitic, and was working to destroy the United States and arm Iran to be capable of threatening every other power in the world in time, and he was making that time far shorter. President Obama had in his first term proven to love Shia Islam, prefer any Islam over the Democratic West, regarded the West as weak and vulnerable and knew that if he could cripple the United States, then Islam would triumph. He did realize the best he was able to do was weaken the United States and that he would require followers to finish the destruction of America. Not to worry, the next election was all sewn-up; America was primed to elect their first woman as President. Well, almost. The Democrats chose the wrong woman. Almost any other Democrat woman would have won, even Nancy Pelosi and especially Elizabeth Warren, anyone but Hillary. Yes, even a dragon might have won over Donald Trump. One must remember that the Republican candidate was Donald Trump, not exactly a mainstream pick. Given the choices in our image below, we believe even, or especially, the candidate pictured at the bottom could have defeated Donald Trump, especially if there are debates. Kidding aside, about the only two candidates who would have given Donald Trump the easy path to the Oval Office are Hillary and Pelosi, the rest would likely have easily defeated Trump. Even Nancy Pelosi might have won, as it was the corruption of Hillary Clinton which sank her, but not the corruption alone. Beyond just the corruption was the weaseling and prevaricating that Hillary Clinton displayed, there was jumping from one excuse to the next as soon as any weakness appeared in the previous excuse always attempting to remain one reason, one explanation, one excuse ahead of failure and being caught. It was not so much the excuses as the paranoia with the complete lack of reason which was too similar to the lies and runaround with lies to hide the truth from the death of Ambassador Stevens, aide Sean Smith, and security officers and former Navy Seals Tyrone S. Woods and Glen Doherty in the Benghazi terror attack which came unpleasantly immediately before the election for President Obama’s second term. The excuses and diversionary tactics during the final drive of the Obama campaign was too closely imitated by Hillary Clinton’s attempt to handle the e-mail server scandal, her part in Benghazi and any other detracting events which included fainting spells, repeated lying, avoidance issues plus her apparent fear of appearing in public except in controlled events with vetted attendees. Hillary Clinton was avoiding the public while Donald Trump was wallowing in the public adoration or jeering, he ate it all up apparently loving almost every moment of it. Still, polling of American Jews revealed close to 80% support for Hillary Clinton and even higher polling numbers believing that Donald Trump was anti-Semitic and anti-Israel. Trying to tell fellow congregants that the exact opposite was the reality was a great way to always have lots of space between you and the others at services and plenty of freedom reaching the hors d’oeuvres.

 

Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren or a Dragon, Tough Choice

Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren or a Dragon, Tough Choice

 

The American Jewish population is overwhelmingly liberal or leftist and registered as Democrats or Green Party. The remainders are split between Libertarian Party, Independent, not registered and actually some Republicans and a few other strays in other parties. This has made it extremely unlikely for any Republican candidate for President breaking 30% of the Jewish vote since General Eisenhower. Richard Nixon managed it in his run for his second term while Ronald Reagan managed it in both runs plus George H. W. Bush in his first term and Romney hit exactly the 30% mark. Obviously, the Democrat candidates for the Presidency can rely on receiving well over half of the Jewish vote, second only to their vote percentages in the inner-city Blacks. These are probably the most reliable voting blocks in the Democrat bag. This is not true throughout American history as before 1900 the Jewish vote went predominantly for Republican candidates starting with Abraham Lincoln. Records going back before that were not found. Where the percentages for Jews lining up on the democrat side of the ledger appeared to average between 65% and 72.5% average depending on the period of the Twentieth Century is chosen and easily continued thus far into the Twenty-First Century and has no hints of changing but for the fact that the one thing one must always expect is that over time things change.

 

What has been unexplainable about the elections in the new century has been the complete lack of concern by the majority of the Jewish voters for what is presumed by many to be their most important of issues, support for Israel or even their second most important issue, whether candidates have a history of anti-Semitism. Everything else was presumed to be fluff according to the historic polling and thus relegated to the inconsequential. These assumptions died if not in the initial election of Barack Hussein Obama, definitively in his reelection though the numbers do reveal some concern for these two presumed main issues for Jews. There had been numerous mentions of suspicions as to potential anti-Semitic feelings with his attending services at the church of the Reverend Jeremiah Wright. When additionally it was reported that Barack Obama had claimed that the Reverend Jeremiah Wright was like a father and was his mentor as well as had performed the marriage ceremony between Barack Obama and Michelle LaVaughn Robinson and that he was friends with Rashid Khalidi and even gave the speech at the party given in Los Angeles when Rashid Khalidi was moving to a new position. Further, there were reports of Barack Obama attending events honoring Louis Farrakhan as well as having had a private meeting with him. All of this made a pressing impression that Barack Obama very probably had less than acceptable feelings towards Jews and even stronger evidence of his potential to work against Israeli interests. By the end of President Obama’s first term, his view of Israel and determination to work for her demise had become unavoidable to anyone who was paying even the slightest attention. Still President Obama received approximately 70% of the Jewish vote according to polling in his second term election. The evidence for Hillary Clinton was beyond that for even President Obama to the point that Israeli supporters would refer to the evidence as definitive. Still, American Jews voted beyond 70% for Hillary Clinton in her run against Donald Trump. There is no explanation for the voting habits of American Jews except that they will vote for the perceived most leftist and liberal candidate regardless of all other considerations. That is it, plain and simple, American Jews will vote at a minimal rate 70% for the left most major candidate which currently means they will vote regardless of all else for Democrat candidates.

 

Then there is the good news, the American Jewish votes are definitive in determining the actual results of any single state in exactly zero states. That is correct; they are a definitive block of votes absolutely nowhere in a Presidential election, period. The greatest influences by state from top to bottom are listed here. The top ten with percentages are:

5.86% New Jersey
4.25% District of Columbia
4.07% Massachusetts
3.99% Maryland
3.28% Connecticut
3.28% Florida
3.18% California
2.69% Nevada
2.31% Illinois
2.29% Pennsylvania

 

As is rather obvious, the Jewish influence on Election Day is minimal at best and at the bottom, South Dakota at an overpowering 0.03% is absolutely inconsequential. This makes the media’s obsession with the support of the Jews in elections is completely out of all proportions. There are few if any states where the Jewish vote could ever influence with the only real potential being New Jersey, Florida, Nevada or Pennsylvania. And really, what are the odds that the small percentage of Jews would be the deciding factor in any of even these states, statistically next to nothing (see map below). Still, we hear incessantly about the Jewish vote as if it really mattered. Why?

 

Percentage of Jewish Population of the United States by County 2000

Percentage of Jewish Population of the United States by County 2000

 

So, the truth is out. The main influence that Jews have on elections is, at best, two fold, money and planning. Believe it or not, that is the good news for them for now, but not for long. There is a new self-interest now entering or soon to enter the political scenes across the developed world as this interest has designs on controlling the developed world. This interest is the Islamic peoples, or at least their leadership, both of them. The real interesting thing is that there are two distinct and rivaling major leaderships in the Islamic world, the Sunni and the Shiite. The Shiite is less complicated as it is led by Iran uncontested. The Sunni are more complicated as there are numerous nodal points of power, Saudi Arabia is the most obvious, Egypt and Turkey are another pair and then there are the numerous terrorist such as al-Qaeda, Hamas, Palestinian Authority and Islamic State to name a few. Their money will make the Jewish money pale by comparison, and this is already starting within the Democrat Party in the United States. The British Labor Party has been coopted and if we were to look around the remainder of Europe, we would most certainly find other parties being influenced. These infiltrations are not at the national stage as of yet, but in the Islamic dominated neighborhoods and with some of their sympathetic leadership who choose to ally with them, possibly in the hopes of gaining power. Whatever the influence of the Islamic interests now, their influence is increasing and will continue to grow and there is little which any other influences will be able to do in time. Politics in much of the developed world runs on two major items, funding and ideals. The problem is for too many the ideals are overly malleable and thus influenced by the money or the promise of future power or a crucial voting block. Whatever their promises now, they will disappear or have a very strict demand coming in the future. For those taking the offered reward now, I hope they will enjoy being a good Muslim and meeting the pillars of Islam, there are worse things in life.

 

Politics is changing and the electorates are changing, and the two are not heading in the same direction in every country. The speed with which the changes will take place will also vary but will inexorably progress. What this will mean will depend on more variables than we could even begin to cover or even explain how they might intersect. The two main influences can be described and their intersection point will be of paramount importance. One is the progress Islam manages to make with its inroads into the political structures of the developed world. It will also matter on the extent of their influence and whether they eventually control many or, as in some cases, both major parties in nations such that it will not matter who wins elections and make new parliaments or are elected President or Prime Minister. Their rise to take power and how they will utilize their newfound power will matter. The other matter is Islam itself. Islam is facing a critical juncture which most do not even see coming but is coming just the same. There are leaders in this effort, most we in the western world do not know by name but we should be glad that they are working to improve the world and Islam along with that world. President Sisi may be among, if not, the most notable, and has already stuck his head out while speaking at Al-Azhar University imploring that they teach a more flexible version of Islam which is capable of existing alongside other religions and no longer expecting to conquer and rule the world. He has implored them to teach more from the Mecca Quran and minimize the Medina Quran, the differences which we gave a small introductory article which many readers have added their own links with much more and interesting information. The future is full of unknowns of which some very important particulars include, or even crucially depend, on Islam. That is what will make the world continue to be of interest and continue to give us all the more to write and discuss.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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