Israel Facing Challenges but Remains Paralyzed

 

Israel is facing challenges, that is probably one of our biggest understatements. Yahya Sinwar, the current Hamas Leader and former leader of the Hamas Military Wing and one of its founding members and an extremist with zealous hatred for Zionism and Jews, has recently threatened that he would strike Tel Aviv with twice as many rockets should hostilities break out. He paid homage to Iran for providing rocket motors, actual rockets of various sizes, ranges and payloads thanking them profusely. Yahya Sinwar is making threats speaking of what he will do should war break out all the while planning various numbers and types of attacks all in an attempt to murder Israelis, destroy any production, destroy IDF positions hoping to kill or injure Israeli soldiers, launching kites and balloons with incendiary devices attached targeting crop lands, wildlife preserves, forests, kibbutzim, communities and wherever else they strike the ground and a new wrinkle with the introduction of drones dropping relatively large incendiary packets on targets as well as the normal rockets with several-hundred rockets fired about one month ago starting in early May virtually all targeting civilian targets. These were fired in order to disrupt the Eurovision contest in Tel Aviv but fortunately the few rockets fired towards Tel Aviv were intercepted by the Iron Dome systems as were numerous other rockets. Still, despite the great record of the Iron Dome, every system has limits and a few rockets reached targets destroying some structures including homes with at least one person killed and a number wounded with others suffering shock requiring treatment. These Hamas and Islamic Jihad attacks have struck kindergartens, pre-schools, residential areas, playgrounds and other similar civilian targets and almost none targeting anything of a military nature such as IDF bases or positions. So, Yahya Sinwar is threatening to strike more civilian targets and perhaps attempt a rocket swarm attack on Tel Aviv in an attempt to guarantee some rockets strike the city as if he were the one on the defense and not as being the one responsible for instigating conflict and violence. Reporting, as the article above, will use titles and writing like, “Israel launches strikes after hundreds of rockets fired from Gaza,” implying that Israel fires first and only after reporting about Israel striking, do they report that Israel fired in response to attacks and not instigating them.

 

Then there is the Iranian armed and trained army in southern Lebanon and engaged in Syria in the form of Hezballah. This terrorist force has estimated at least one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles of various sizes, ranges, payloads and targeting abilities. The image below depicts some of the rockets and missiles Hezballah used during the last conflict and is not a complete reflection of their current capabilities which have been augmented and improved with many of their rockets given guidance upgraded into missiles. Two reports based on Israeli intelligence reveal the GPS-guidance upgrades meant to improve the rockets’ accuracy, have been provided by Iran using the IRGC. The lower map shows the underground locations of the facilities, where the guidance packages were added to rockets transforming them into guided missiles, located close to the Beirut International Airport, the location of these systems being imported. This was amongst other signs that Iran is upgrading Hezballah capabilities which implies that either these upgraded weapons are for use in the Syrian civil war or Iran has plans for another war along the Israeli northern border. This was further suggested when IDF units discovered infiltration tunnels from Lebanon into northern Israel ranging in length, depth and sophistication implying their improved technology being provided leading to the more advanced deeper tunnels (bottom picture showing inside one tunnel). With Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezballah all linked to Iran and taking their orders from Tehran, as Hamas admitted the latest rocket attacks were ordered by the Iranian government, the worst case scenario where Israel would face terrorist attacks from all three groups forcing Israel to defend both the northern and southern borders simultaneously is growing more and more inevitable. Currently, Hamas is making the loudest threats, but that does not rule out Hezballah also taking part in any new aggressions against Israel.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

 

 

Hezballah Infiltration Tunnel

 

 

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif recently took shots at Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, claiming he has failed to protect Israel, Tweeting, “A few Arab rulers believe that if they follow Netanyahu, they’ll be able to achieve their illusions. But Netanyahu has failed to protect Israel, despite his Iron Dome, so how can he protect THEM?” Additionally, Iran held Al-Quds Day rallies replete with chants against the Saudi royal family, the Islamic State group mingled with the traditional cries of “Death to Israel” and “Death to America.” There was also the apparently mandatory burning of American and Israel flags along with effigies of President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. Quoting from the article, “Death to the House of Saud and Daesh (IS),” demonstrators chanted. “Death to America,” “Death to Israel,” and “Death to the UK.” Well, guess we should be honored to have such distinguished list of other nations with which Iran apparently is having their difficulties, though we were unaware of their problems with the UK as they are still signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Still, much of the reporting will only include their animosity towards Israel and President Trump.

 

The Iranian threat to the world should not be ignored as it is a real threat to begin a horrific war using every weapon at their disposal which we fear includes a fair number of nuclear warheads and missiles with the range and targeting accuracy to cause major damage to all in the Middle East and into Northern Africa with direct threats against Saudi Arabia along with her Gulf States allies as well as Egypt, Jordan and Israel. Iran has also mastered launching ballistic missiles with over a thousand-mile ranges out of cargo ships where the missiles are hidden under what appear to be containers and freight packaging. The number of these ships so outfitted is unknown as well as their registration and nation of origins. Iran could easily utilize any of their allies’ cargo vessels for such purpose which would imply that they might have such missile launching ships licensed with Venezuela, Iraq, North Korea, Libya, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia or any of several other allies as well as any nation with loose regulatory control over ship licenses. Simply put, Iranian cargo vessels with concealed ballistic missiles could have almost any national flag from amongst the many options making detecting them even more difficult. Such ballistic missiles could have any of a number of warheads ranging from high explosive and incendiary all the way to chemical or biological warheads or potentially nuclear or EMP warheads which cause damage beyond most countries ability to repair or even survive. Add to the equation that Iran sent a naval fleet intending to station the ships for a few months as an intended threat and as a message to President Trump that America is not as safe as perhaps he thinks.

 

Meanwhile, many in the media and those with a distinctly leftist political view will claim that all the problems in the Middle East, if not the world, are directly traceable to Israel while ignoring Iran. All one needs do to realize the truth is look around the Middle East and look at who has fighters there, be they terrorist provided for by Iran or their IRGC foreign fighters. In Lebanon there is what has to be considered a terror army in Hezballah. Move across to Syria and there are Hezballah fighters and IRGC units. Moving on to Yemen and the two, Hezballah and the IRGC, are both involved here as well. Then there is the Tri-border region where Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay have a common border and all three blame the other two for the problems in the region (see picture below). Iran has also used the Houthis and their assisting IRGC and Hezballah forces in Yemen to launch rockets into Saudi Arabia including into Riyadh, the Saudi capital city. Iran is set on establishing their Shiite Crescent across the Middle East as pictured in the lower picture below. While Israel addresses threats on her borders not needing to seek more problems outside of Israel, Iran can be found across the Middle East operating either using IRGC units or terrorist entities they control from Iran across Iraq, into Syria and Lebanon while in a southern region we find Iranian influence in Yemen. This view of the region should dispel any illusions concerning which nation is spreading threats and conflicts across the Middle East with views on expanding further and that the nation in question is not Israel but instead is Iran. Iran is currently threatening to expand their efforts into Saudi Arabia and Israel while also ignoring the American warnings about Iranian aggressions, particularly those along the waterways where commerce and oil flow to the world and the Iranian threats to shipping through the Straits of Hormuz as well as threatening the United States Naval vessels in the region. The only question is exactly how far will Iran need to push the United States before President Trump will finally decide that they have crossed a red-line and are deserving of American wrath. Just as Hamas will probably cross beyond the limit of Israeli patience, Iran will push beyond American patience forcing a confrontation or worse. Something ugly is approaching this summer, and it will be decided upon by the Mullahs of Iran.

 

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994 bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

 

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

France Topples Over and Beyond the Cusp into Parallel Universe

 

France apparently is afraid to even place an Islamist murderer of Jews on trial. This has become their modus operandi when any Muslim murders a Jew. The most recent case one can read here plus another look at this here is about the murder of Sarah Halimi. One can only wonder how long before the French judicial system finds these two murderers to also be unfit to stand trial for their murder of Mireille Knoll. This was the only way the trend in France could have ended as carefully reported in this article. What makes this all the more troubling is that it was the result of a general slide to viewing any Jew murdered, threatened, attacked or verbally harangued by any Muslim as some form of justifiable action simply as a result of their culture. This is where the leftist ideology that no culture is superior to any other leads a nation. This is the road much of the Western World is merrily traveling down and those traditionalists who call out the danger are mocked as Islamophobe or some other equally damning epithet as even being a nationalist is considered criminal behavior requiring reeducation.

 

Sarah Halimi and Mireille Knoll

Quoting from an article, “How the murders of two elderly Jewish women shook France,” we read in the Guardian International Edition, we found this to be quite interesting.

No fewer than 12 Jews have been killed in France in six separate incidents since 2003: Sébastien Selam, Ilan Halimi, Jonathan Sandler, Gabriel Sandler, Aryeh Sandler, Myriam Monsonégo, Yohan Cohen, Philippe Braham, François-Michel Saada, Yoav Hattab, Lucie Attal and Mireille Knoll. In each of these cases, at least one of the perpetrators was from what the French call minorités visibles, or “visible minorities”, which typically refers to those of north African or west African descent; in most cases, the perpetrators have been linked with some form of extremist Islam. In nearly every case, the victims have been either identifiably Jewish or personal acquaintances of the perpetrator.

Reading the names, one stood out for two reasons, first is that the young man’s name, Ilan Halimi, shares the last name of Sarah Halimi from the story above. Ilan’s story is about as horrific as one might ever read as reported in the New York Times. That is another reason his name was so noticeable. Almost all of the murders and attacks made upon Jews, not only in France but throughout Europe, in the United States, Canada, here in Israel and around the world share one singular fact, the victim is almost always somebody completely unable to fight back or offer any form of resistance unless armed and holding the weapon before the attack, an unlikely event. In New York City, in some of the most Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods, there have been numerous attacks registered with the police where young men and teens attacking religiously dressed Jews from behind with a one-off and then run often striking them with sufficient force to knock them to the ground. Again, these are attacks from behind without warning against either Jewish youth or middle aged or older men. This report in Haaretz tells the grim tale along with links to further information.

 

This rise in anti-Semitism is virtually worldwide and has crept into culture which even showed its ugly head in Israel during the Eurovision 2019 Song Contest in Tel Aviv where the group from Iceland, Hatari, as they unfurled their ‘Palestine’ banners at the televised Final and sang “Hate will prevail,” as commented on by Barry Shaw in his article Hate prevails in Iceland. Barry Shaw expounds on the historic prevalence of anti-Semitism across Icelandic history. But historic anti-Semitism is not a prerequisite for modern anti-Semitism, though it does appear to make it more apparent. Recent reports have indicated that the trend is a universal problem around the world as reported here and here. There actually is one place where Jews can find relative peace of mind that they are unlikely to be attacked, and that is Israel. As odd as it might seem, but inside Israel, especially Tel Aviv, Ashdod, Ashkelon, Netanya, Peta Tikvah and Nahariya. Most of Jerusalem is safe but we did not list it due to the problems which reoccur almost on schedule coinciding with Jewish Holy Days. It is true that the High Holy Days the rioting on the Temple Mount starts a couple of weeks before and continues for up to three weeks or so after simply to deny Jews the right to ascend to the Temple Mount. The Palestinian Arabs know that when they riot, the Jews are barred from visiting the Temple Mount as the Waqf will blame the Jews for the rioting always claiming that the Jews defiled the al-Aqsa Mosque or some other invention and insist that the Jews not be permitted to visit the Temple Mount until the Arab rioting is over. Yea, we thought that made a whole lot of nonsense as well, but those are the rules.

 

Maps of Israel and Israel Replaced with New Jersey

 

That brings us to our final point. It concerns the Palestinian Arab-Israeli conflict. There can be only one nation between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea as the region is about the size of New Jersey and almost the same shape (see map above). New Jersey has a population of just over nine-million while Israel has a population currently of just over eight and a half million. When one considers the rising anti-Semitism, it is not out of line to foresee a time in the not too distant future when Jews will either be fleeing or be dispossessed and deported from any number of nations something similar as to what happened to most Jews from the Arab World between the founding of Israel and over the following decade or two. This has a potential to flood Israel with refugees from around the world. Looking around the world by continent, North America has approximately six million plus a fraction of Jews with Central and South America adding another half million Jews. Moving along Asia has about thirty-five thousand Jews with Oceana with one-hundred-twenty-one thousand plus Africa with seventy-four thousand and finally Europe (including Russia) which has the bulk outside North America with almost one and a half million. Outside of North America there are just over two million Jews. Assuming that only ten percent of North American Jews make Aliyah and the majority of Jews from the rest of the world also move to Israel, this would add another three to four million Jews to the population not even counting the number of Israelis expected from population growth, as unlike much of the rest of the developed world, Israel has a positive population growth while virtually if not every nation in Europe has a negative population growth which is part of the reason Europe has basically opened their borders to make up for the loss of population causing economic havoc. If the world goes completely mad and all Jews are deported with only Israel as a destination, this would make Israel one of the more densely populated nations, something which is going to occur with or without immigrants, immigration simply would cause this sooner rather than later. Israel currently has a population growth rate of just under two percent and has 3.11 births per woman compared to the average in Europe of around 1.65 births per woman where 2.13 births per woman is considered replacement rate meaning no change in the population. We will show one last map comparing the Arab World in green with Israel in red and you figure out where the displaced Arabs might find plenty of elbow room, Israel or amongst the Arabs world with pockets flushed with money provided by Israel as a relocation bonus to make their resettlement less painful.

 

Israel and the Arab World

 

If you figured the Arab world, then we are of the same mind. Remember that Israel would be providing the Palestinian Arabs and anybody else including Jews Muslims, Christians, Buddhists or any of the plethora of other religions who desired to leave Israel permanently with a relocation bonus and full market price for their properties. These would be welcome immigrants in any nation which desired inviting a freshly minted halfway to a millionaire family to assist with their economic fortunes. There would probably be a number of European nations who might consider extending an invite. Perhaps this is an idea worth some effort, especially if made now with a three-month time limit to decide before President Trump releases his Deal of the Century. This just might make President Trump and his deal unnecessary.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Time for Israel to Help Trump and America

 

We just read an article by Will Blesch titled, “Should Israel do without US financial aid?” which led us to review some of the things we have stated on this subject. The subtitle taking a line from the article start with, “If Israel could manage without US financial aid,” which is a question we have addressed previously always reaching an answer which was a resounding affirmation. For reference, here are just some of our writings from over the years on this subject which include, “Israeli Decision Refusing US Iron Dome Aid a Great Start” from August 8, 2013, “Time Come for Divorce of Israel and United States?” from May 22, 2014, “I Worry for Israel and Her Future” from June 14, 2017, and “America Can be a Fickle Friend” from September 21, 2018. Should people read these articles they will notice that our position has steadily been for Israel to wean herself from the reliance on American largess, otherwise known as aid. We understand that the aid which the United States provides the Israeli militarily comes with some heavy ropes attached, not just a few strings here and there. First, anything the United States underwrites becomes technology which the United States will benefit in its adoption if it is deemed desirable. Second, almost all military aid monies are required to be spent on procuring American arms made in the United States even should there be Israeli modifications plus the United States retains the right to implement these modifications on their own versions. So, we have no illusions about American aid as it is largely to provide an additional customer for the United States arms manufacturers, predominantly the aircraft manufacturers. It was over aircraft that the entire United States aid began as Israel was about to go into production of the Lavi fighter jet (photo below), a direct challenger to the F-16 built by the United States. The United States decided it was wise to cut down on the number of new fighters going into production and offered Israel such a deal which they could not refuse as it included F-16’s in numbers commensurate to the expected Israeli production of the Lavi plus additional wings of F-15’s to augment the Israeli Air Force. The United States also promised to provide Israel with air superiority into the future forever. Well, we have recently passed forever as Saudi Arabia and Egypt have received or will be receiving F-35’s and currently Turkey will not be receiving them though it had been planned to provide them to Turkey. Still, the numbers between Egypt and Saudi Arabia provide them parity if not superiority over Israel, pilots not included. From this little deal everything mushroomed.

 

Lavi the Lost Dream

 

Returning to the original question; Should Israel do without US financial aid? Before answering too quickly and just jumping straight to, “Yes,” perhaps we should answer a more necessary question which should precede this one, Could Israel do without US financial aid? This question will require covering some of the ground from our previous articles and their graphs and other graphics as well. The first item which must be determined is how much aid is the United States aid set at, is it rising or static and if changing, by how much and which way. Well, the truth is revealed in the graph below which also signals some other vital information. The graph below indicates that United States aid to Israel, excepting some resupply years after military engagements, has settled at approximately three billion dollars per year. The graph also makes another reality obvious; the United States has not been the closest ally upon whom Israel has depended for their weaponry since her inception in 1948. Truth be told, after President Harry S. Truman recognized Israel, he then obliged his State Department and the Defense Department and placed an arms embargo on the entirety of the Middle East during the initial war between the six Arab nations, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt, and Israel which was an Arab initiated war intending to erase the Jewish State. President Eisenhower continued the arms embargo on Israel and acted to force Israel to return the Sinai Peninsula after Egypt initiated hostilities by closing the Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping as well as the Suez Canal to European shipping. The Israeli action in 1956 was in concert with the British and French who instead of holding up their end of the military engagement to free the shipping lanes, continued to talk to the Egyptians, they claim into a deal without any assist from Israel, despite Israel gaining hold of the eastern banks of the Suez Canal basically forcing Egypt to capitulate. Aid to Israel was first started as a trickle after the Six Day War victory of 1967, which showed the United States that Israel could become a favorable ally in the Middle East due to which President Lyndon Baines Johnson began to provide aid. The acceleration of aid came under President Richard Nixon initially in response to the Yom Kippur War of 1973, after which came the F-16’s along with F-15’s to prevent the manufacture of the Lavi which presented the jump in aid amounts. Since the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, the aid package to Israel has stood steady at around three billion dollars each year.

 

United States Israel Aid (Military)

 

Great, that is the aid side of the equation. The other side of the equation is Israeli GDP from which we can ascertain what percentage of GDP the aid represents. Israeli GDP is shown from 1960 through 2016 in the graph below which is in billions of US Dollars. Taking samples, we will start with 1980, in which Israeli GDP was around twenty-seven billion dollars. This would make the United States aid equivalent to approximately eleven percent of GDP. In 1985, Israeli GDP had climbed to forty-one billion dollars making the United States aid to approximately seven and one half percent of GDP. In 1990, Israeli GDP reached sixty billion dollars making the aid approximately five percent of GDP. In 1995, Israeli GDP equaled ninety-three billion dollars reducing the aid to three and one quarter percent of GDP. In 2000, GDP broke one hundred reaching one-hundred-thirty-one billion dollars bringing aid to two and one quarter of GDP. In 2005, GDP reached one-hundred-sixty-two billion dollars making the aid at under two percent of GDP. In 2010 GDP attained two-hundred-twenty-one billion dollars placing aid at just over one and one and one third of GDP. In 2015 Israeli GDP climbed to two-hundred-eighty-five billion dollars again reducing aid to barely over one percent of GDP. In 2017 the GDP was three-hundred-sixteen and a half billion dollars making the aid at just under one percent of GDP. What this long set of calculations depicts clearly is that Israel and the United States need to renegotiate any agreements which under current economic conditions, Israel could have the United States retain the three-billion dollars of aid and free Israel to choose whatever aircraft which she deems to be the best applicable for her needs. For the ensuing few years, it is obvious that Israel will remain with the F-35 JSF as the mainstay of her Air Force as she has already received the first squadrons. Beyond these fifth-generation fighters, Israel may desire to rely on her own industries to produce her sixth-generation fighters and perhaps the United States will purchase their fighters from Israel.

 

Israeli GDP Billions $

 

When Israel was younger and dependent upon a mostly agrarian economy, the American aid was irreplaceable and one could make the case that it was actually necessary. The Israel of the 1970’s is now long passed history and she has become a high-tech nation with the GDP to match. Israel may not be in the top twenty nations economically, but when one considers her size and population, her economic picture clearly is vastly improved in the last half of a century. On an even brighter note, the Israeli economy continues to climb though quite a bit slower as one would expect. A nation can only keep up such sweeping improvements while their economy moves from dependent on agriculture and some industrial components into an industrial economy and now an information-based economy. Israel also has an impressive medical research industry, a leading agricultural industry which has provided the world with drip irrigation and crops which are suited to a desert climate and some which use partially desalinated water or treated waste waters. These advances can help numerous nations increase their crop outputs. Israel has also provided advanced medical systems and assisted with crop and irrigation for many remote African communities as well as providing electricity and communication equipment which has connected these remote places with the world and provided Internet access. Israel also has one of the best emergency response teams replete with an entire field hospital which is capable of providing almost any nature of medical aid a nation in distress might require as well as more normal medical assistance such as a maternity ward and others (see video below). Israel has become a nation with a rather diverse economy, especially when considering the small size of Israel, her being approximately the size of New Jersey. (For some maps depicting the size of Israel compared to the United States, India, Australia and Great Britain, go here) Israel recently sent a spacecraft to the Moon, though a rocket failure had it land going far too fast, making her the fourth nation to actually succeed in hitting the moon. The little craft Beresheet made a valiant effort and was a private venture by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and SpaceIL. The two companies have stated their intent to attempt another Moon lander and perhaps the Israeli government might provide some funding.

 

 

Israel today is a modern nation and as such should not be dependent, even on the United States, or other countries to provide her defense of her people and her land. Further, Israel is entering a time of undefined dangers and threats some of which are not of her doing. One example is Iran who had threatened and promised that should the United States take any actions against Iran they will decimate Israel. Theirs is not an empty threat as they have organizational control of Hezballah in Lebanon and Syria, Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza, and their own forces consisting of mostly IRGC and al-Quds Force, the first being their terrorist outreach branch of the military equal if not superior to the Iranian national armed forces, and the other a group of fanatical fighters sworn to the capture of Jerusalem (al-Quds) and the destruction of the Zionist entity (Israel). Make no mistake, these Iranian threats are real and should not be cast aside in the belief that Iran would be incapable of fulfilling their threats. According to the GFP Index of Countries, Iran is ranked as the fourteenth in military strength while Israel is ranked sixteenth in military strength with the United States ranked an obvious first in military strength and China considered third with Russia taking second. Interestingly, should Israel attack Iran, Iran has promised to strike Israel and said nothing about striking the United States under either scenario. The reality obviously is that should anybody attack Iran, they will strike Israel and for the most part ignore their actual attacker. We can assure you that this is not comforting for Israelis, but we hold to the Alfred E. Newman philosophy which went beyond just, “What, me worry?” He was often alluded to have added, “Ninety-five-percent of what we worry about never happens and the other five percent happens whether we worry or not, so why worry.” Perhaps this explains why despite all the things threatening Israel, she is still the eleventh happiest nation on the planet. In the end, Israel could and should present the United States with the deal that they cannot refuse, namely, keep your money and let’s be friends and just go along to get along. It would provide a new industry and many well-paying jobs which just might make up for the loss of revenues simply through taxes and increased GDP. Such a deal could make both nations more happy and have less friction as neither will be living off the other nation’s revenues.

 

Beyond the Cusp