Beyond the Cusp

October 8, 2018

John Bolton and His Possible First Assignment

 

Numbers of friends asked when John Bolton was chosen to be National Security Adviser to President Trump why was he chosen for this position. The first thing I informed them was that President Trump desired to have Bolton onboard to take care of specific situations and problems but knew there would be heavy push back if he required being confirmed by the Senate. If you believe that the Kavanaugh situation turned ugly, had John Bolton required confirmation, the Senate obstructionists and opposition to President Trump would have had a field day and do not even ask about the games the media would have played. For an introduction, read about his being appointed by President George W. Bush as Ambassador to the United Nations for a taste of the pushback. This was why he had to be appointed as the National Security Adviser simply because the position does not require Senate advise and consent hearings, or should we call them quarrelsome brouhaha. They found this informative but re-asked their question and added a, ‘why him’ to their query. Well, that I can answer with a single word, Israel. The Arab Israel Conflict resolution has become more than President Trump had bargained for and he decided it was time to call in a weapon of mass destruction, John Bolton. John Bolton has been added to the teams attempting to pry some agreement out of the Middle East which has hit snag after snag and apparently stymied the current members of the conflict resolution team. So, introducing John Bolton, a bombastic and extremely determined individual who is willing to bulldoze through all obstructions, blowing them from his path, and who has no problem imposing his will on even the most recalcitrant of individuals. John Bolton has been assigned to find the people willing to make an agreement, find some way of tying such an agreement together, implementing this agreement and then making it stick against all adversarial efforts which will assuredly be forthcoming, potentially in groups or potentially swarms. This is the job for which John Bolton has been hired.

 

National Security Adviser to President Trump John Bolton

National Security Adviser to President Trump John Bolton

 

Where is our proof that John Bolton was chosen as National Security Adviser simply to address the entire Arab Israeli conflict? Well, there was this report about the Trump-North Korea Summit which stated, “President Donald Trump’s Singapore summit with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un was full of showmanship, featuring photo-ops, a long press conference, and one very unusual promotional video. But one player in the scene was surprisingly quiet: John Bolton, Trump’s national-security adviser.” Then additionally there have been his remarks of late. John Bolton attacked Iran calling them “the world’s central banker of international terrorism since 1979.” Addressing ramification of the threats by the Palestinian Authority (PA) to possibly incur the International Court of Justice in settling diplomatic disputes, he stated, “the so-called state of Palestine” challenging the move of the US embassy to Jerusalem at the international court, stating bluntly that “Palestine” is not a state. There was his commentary on Russia’s decision to provide Syria with advanced S-300 air defense systems is a “major mistake.” Have you noticed any common denominator in his commentary? All his remarks one could claim were made by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instead of the United States National Security Adviser. The question is how it is thought that John Bolton, the one man with a distinctively favorable track record concerning Israel, will in any way find a better way for solving the Arab-Israeli Conflict. Would not the presence of John Bolton polarize and harden the Arabs in their positions?

 

Well, that brings on a simple answer. Could he actually make anything worse than the Khartoum Resolution and the Three No’s, “no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with Israel.” Somehow, the Three No’s is a definitive statement which rules out any possible solution which would involve any of the members of the Arab League. Meanwhile, as we have reported on numerous occasions, Mahmoud Abbas, just as had Yasser Arafat before him, has a simple answer to any offer which meets every single of his demands, he walks away without any counteroffer and then refuses to negotiate and launches a terrorist offensive within the following three to four months claiming they are grassroots uprisings to protest the Israeli rejectionism at the previous negotiations. This is always picked up exactly as described by Abbas in the European media and the leftist media in the United States, Canada and the remainder of the Western World. Always, the reason given for ending any negotiations has been laid at the feet of Israel despite any reality proving otherwise. Yasser Arafat walked out in Paris, Mahmoud Abbas has simply refused to meet at all and explanations invariable blame Israel claiming Israel has not sacrificed or granted sufficient demands from the PA to make further negotiations even remotely advantageous. We would only be able to wonder and dream in order to find a single concession which the PA has ever granted Israel. If we could simply just be presented with a provable concession which has been made and followed through upon and not simply retracted as soon as they walked away from the negotiations, then there could be progress. We have been unable to find any such event.

 

We do remember the recounting by President William Jefferson Clinton of how after pressuring Yasser Arafat in Paris during the Camp David Accords negotiations and getting an exact description of his minimal acceptable agreement if only the Israelis truly desire peace. President Clinton tells that he then expected he would be required to exhort, cajole, urged and finally insist with it all in the hopes to have Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak meet Arafat’s demands. Well, Prime Minister Barak was said to have thought and with the slightest coaxing, he agreed to the demands for the minimum Arafat required for him to sign a peace agreement. The next morning, Yasser Arafat simply stalked across the room striding purposefully straight out the front door with Secretary of State Madeline Albright chasing after him unable to catch Arafat before he reached his waiting vehicle and headed to the airport and flew back to Jordan. That was the closest anybody may have come to finding the unfindable agreement. The simple truth is that there is but one thing the Arabs will accept, the complete destruction of Israel or turning it over to them to rule, either way, placing the Jews under the care, protection and wills of their Islamic betters. They state that as Dhimmis, the Jews will be treated with the extents of the Quran which makes Dhimmis a protected people as long as they pay a tax called the Jiyza. What is left out is that the Jiyza can rise to any level, even to a point of demanding the turning over of all property and wealth. Then the next time the tax comes due, there will be no means left to pay any expected amount at which time the protections can disappear. That is the least of the restrictions which are troublesome from the Quran’s treatment of Dhimmis such that they have no legal recourse in the courts and there is no protection against forced conversions or forced marriage of your children and even convert or death choice.

 

So, with the reality that Mahmoud Abbas, Jordanian King Abdallah and Egyptian President Sisi will all refuse any agreement with Israel where the Jews are permitted to have rights to govern themselves, then how can John Bolton possibly make any progress where none has ever existed? Well, there is the fact that his reputation as a rather blunt and forceful individual who is extremely opinionated who is difficult to deal with, but why should that change anything? Well, another thing about John Bolton is that since he is not the President nor an actual Cabinet Secretary and merely an adviser, he will have the latitude to do offers which are beyond things that say the Secretary of State could broach without actually obligating the United States or the President. This may permit Mr. Bolton to inspect other alternatives which a President, Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense would cause far too much talk and media reporting making actually working such a deal to its conclusion. Such a deal might be done by going around King Abdullah and instead backing the Jordanian Opposition Council led by Mudar Zahran, somebody who could meet with John Bolton outside some international event away from the media and avoiding any undesired attention. The Jordanian Opposition Council is led by Mudar Zahran and desires to make peace with Israel and turn the rule of Jordan to the Palestinians who represent a sizable majority of the Jordanian population. There have been suggestions where the King of Jordan will still rule over Jordan which will be minimized into the areas where the Bedouin and other non-Palestinian tribes in the eastern sector while the Palestinians will be given rule of the remainder of Jordan renamed Palestine.

 

The Arabs from the Shomron would be enticed to move into this new nation and those remaining in PA regions would be granted Palestinian citizenship and Israel would be returned the entirety of the Shomron. This would require some extreme assistance from the United States as certain powers from the Jordanian areas remade into Palestine would need to be removed before they could overthrow whatever governance is put in place. Assuming that Mudar Zahran and his Jordanian Opposition Council are backed and placed into Palestine with King Abdullah simply instructed that should he attempt to retake the remainder of what had been his nation that he would face very stiff and possibly deadly resistance as the United States is backing new governance. The Muslim Brotherhood would be the first group to be removed from the new nation. Any other known terrorist operatives would require neutralizing. Finally, once Palestine has been pacified, much as Germany was de-Nazified after World War II, then new elections, which should be carefully operated by the United States and overseen by respected and trusted international observers, need to be held to elect new and representative governance. The peace which would be reached between Israel and this new Palestine would also require being overseen and enforced by international interests, defined as the United States as most others would be considered as being compromised. The unfortunate and most shaky part of this arrangement is that for it to actually be capable of lasting, it will require the United States to make an investment militarily, socially, economically and in other capabilities which may not be evident initially as the situation would most definitely require nurturing. The difficulty with this idea is whether Mudar Zahran and his Jordanian Opposition Council are actually seeking peace or simply attempting to use peace with Israel as a lever to gain power followed by their never releasing power forming a dictatorship which could then turn against Israel. This potential eventuality is why the conversion process from potential terror state to modern economic state will require being walked through the transformation and protected from backtracking. This could be the small crack in the Islamic World through which a different passage can be opened leading to progress in bringing the Arab world forward to modern economic success. The incoming King of Saudi Arabia has made indication he would like to open such a path for his nation. Adding Jordan to the north along with Saudi Arabia passing into the modern economic world could complete the apparent path the world appears to be rolling along. Such a change in direction for the Arab and Islamic world would, if accomplished, be the greatest product of President Trump. The only problem is what would happen with following administrations, would they continue to support such an effort or simply destroy all this progress just to spite the memory of the time President Trump held the White House. The destruction and shutting down of the operations required in the name of erasing Trump’s legacy while saving funds could result in the end of modernizing the lives of the many Arabs currently living in an age removed from the developed world, a world where their own leadership currently reside. There is hope that progress could come and lift many in the Arab world from tribalism and poverty into the modern world with all the benefits and progress. This hope might just be the reason for John Bolton as his actions are often reported as being illogical, unhelpful and anything but to what people should pay any attention. Thus, his visiting some obscure individuals in London or outside the Davos meetings would be minimalized by the media, something simply perfect for Bolton to actually operate below the radar and by the time he is found out, it might just be too late to change what will result.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 9, 2017

Trump and the New Syria Policy

 

Trump has a new Syria policy which, except for one major change, which may not even really be any change, looks awfully similar to the Trump old Syria policy. What we witnessed last Friday was the Trump policy on the use of weapons of mass destruction against civilians. It mattered not whether it had been Syria, North Korea, Libya or any other place where such hideous acts might have been carried out. Wherever there would have been any use of chemical, biological, nuclear or any other weapons of mass destruction against civilians; whoever or whichever nation or leader who would have utilized weapons of mass destruction murdering any number large or small of civilians; would have probably been the recipients of an American strike by Tomahawk Cruise Missiles or B-52 long-range heavy bombers or other long arm of United States military reach to send the message that the United States would no longer stand by and simply twiddle our thumbs or make empty threats setting erasable red lines against such use of these weapons. The message might even have been extended for any mass murdering of civilians using even normative weapons such as barrel bombs or even artillery bombardment. This was President Trump announcing that the United States of old has returned and that nations and their leaders will be held responsible for their actions. We bet that exactly what Trump announced as a challenge to the rest of the world during his short commentary on the Syria attack was the meat that we should take away from the action against Syria, that he desires leading the world in efforts to end the horrors of terrorism by targeting the terror leadership.

 

So, what about this war against Syria everybody claims President Trump just declared? Well, first thing is that, as a number of Congresspersons mentioned, Congress is the body of the government which declares wars and also must be conferred with and approve any sustained military engagements. If President Trump plans an extended military confrontation against Syria, he will be required to get Congressional approval. We would advise not holding your breath waiting for the speech from President Trump before Congress asking for either a declaration of war or an extension for military operations in Syria. President Trump was simply sending a message with an exclamation point. His promise not to enter the Syrian war remains in place as does his promise not to get mired down in any Middle East war. Syria will remain a Russian playground unless Bashir al-Assad has not learned his lesson. Even if Assad is thinking that he might just desire to test the mettle of this new American President and see if this was just simply a one-off and that President Trump simply really is no different than his predecessor, President Obama; the odds are that Russian President Putin likely would advise him against any such stupidity. Even if Bashir al-Assad did not get the message or believes the message which was sent, we can trust that President Putin definitely got the message and that will serve just as well.

 

Donald Trump

 

But what about the long term cost of this military adventure? Has President Trump completely alienated President Putin? After all, President Putin did cancel the agreement where the United States and Russia exchanged information between their military commands so as not to have any misunderstandings or run any risk of their two militaries running into one another as a surprise. That action by President Putin was more posturing than actual anger as that communication likely was used before the attack so that the Russians were advised, likely with insufficient time to warn the Syrians and just sufficient time to get their own people to safety. Even if the Russians were able to warn the Syrians, the message still was received and both leaders, Putin and Assad, likely also know if another such punitive attack should become necessary, there will be no warnings next time. This was a message for more than Assad or Putin; this was a message to the world and most definitely was not a declaration of the United States entering the Syrian war. Those claiming such are simply attempting to be alarmist and are simply people who were not strongly supportive of Trump and were seeking a reason, any reason to run from him and joining those bashing him daily on social media. Those others who would love nothing more than for President Trump to get mired down in the Syrian war and have come out of the woodwork to support this military actions and are calling for more follow-on military actions are not friends of the President and are not seeking the best for him. These are the ones who have opposed President Trump and his non-interventionist policies and are hoping beyond hope that they can finally force him into supporting their policies. They will lose as President Trump if nothing else is his own man and will do as he desires. He signaled exactly his desired path during the campaign and this attack was no deviation.

 

On another front, this attack should remove some of the silliness that President Trump was nothing but President Putin’s marionette. The distraction from the real scandal should be dead and buried and we can now get on to looking for how deep the rabbit hole which starts with President Obama’s National Security Adviser Susan Rice and likely leads right to the President himself. Even if the Russians did actually purloin e-mails from the Democratic National Committee and from Hillary Clinton’s Campaign Chief, John Podesta, e-mails and make them public, had the media been worth their salt they would have found this information themselves. The Democratic National Committee e-mails were not stolen anyway as it is already a known fact that they were leaked by somebody inside the DNC. This means that the media was probably given access to this information and decided to sit on it as it did not serve placing Hillary into the White House. That would even include FOX News as many of the reporters and editorialists even at FOX were in the, “Anybody but Trump Camp,” even if that meant Hillary Clinton. It took somebody not so much interested in the election as they are in releasing anything which was factual and the public should have the right to know. Information on a Presidential candidate definitely fell into those criteria. That was likely the main driving factor behind Wikileaks putting out the information which was in those communications. They actually provided a service for the American voters by placing before them news which the media refused to provide despite its obvious importance. These leaks were more of a shaming of the media than it was a shaming of Hillary Clinton, as it was Hillary Clinton which shamed Hillary Clinton. President Abraham Lincoln loved the truth and trusted the people and his words should be revered by the media and rejoiced by bartenders. President Lincoln is quoted having written or said, “I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts, and beer.” We too favor his opinion, waitress, another pitcher if you please.

 

Pitcher of Beer

Pitcher of Beer

 

Kidding aside, Wikileaks should be given a great amount of thanks for revealing truths which the American media refused to release. Where we doubt that their releases actually cost Hillary Clinton a single vote, but we do believe that they may have pushed a few wavering voters to change from simply sleeping in and then going golfing to actually voting for Donald Trump. Our friends in Michigan and Wisconsin will tell us that their going for Trump had nothing to do with people not going to play golf; nobody plays golf there except in July or August because the rest of the year the weather and lake effect storms make such an unpleasant venture. Whatever those few people who were swayed by the information, the truths, released by Wikileaks may or may not have made the difference, but we doubt they did sway the election for Trump as the two camps in the United States have drifted to such extremes that there are probably not sufficient people sitting on the fence and the majority of voters are all from each candidate’s base. The problem is for the candidate who does not excite or have the trust of their party base of voters. As far as getting into the war in Syria, that would have been Hillary’s game, not President Trump. We can close telling our friends in the United States and elsewhere, President Trump was taking a shot across the bow of any state actor who might be misjudging him and thinking that they can use weapons of mass destruction or any weapons indiscriminately, and they had best rethink, as that is something he will not suffer. Instead, President Trump will make such a reckless leader suffer and take the side of any suffering people as long as it will not lead to harming the United States. Do not get to thinking President Trump changed as his number one love and devotion outside of his family is his country, the United States of America.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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