Beyond the Cusp

January 29, 2014

How Will Obama, Kerry and Company React When Abbas Says “No”?

The entire idea behind the current negotiations being lorded over by Secretary of State Kerry are predicated on forcing a solution by any means necessary by the end of nine months of forced and dedicated negotiations. The standing implication is should the Palestinians and Israelis be unable to reach an agreement through these negotiations, then the nearly omniscient President Obama along with his enlightened advisors will impose a fair solution onto the Palestinians and the Israelis. This would seem to be a plan that should find a solution to any reasonable person but the one thing that has been consistent in this conflict has been anything but reasonably consistent at anything other than the two sides refusal to agree on anything. All appearances thus far are there is no solution coming in the time allotted through negotiations which will place the next initiative squarely in the lap of President Obama. What will President Obama do when no matter what he proposes, unless he promises to annihilate the Israelis, is acceptable to Palestinian Authority President Abbas? It is likely that President Obama will be dumbstruck initially and then turn to the same exact resolution that every outside leader attempting to force a solution has before him, making incessant, extreme and destructive demands of Israel until the Israelis balk and refuse and then blame Israel for their intransigence.


It would be wonderful to believe that this time there would be a solution found that satisfied both sides, but to expect that would be foolhardy. With the apparent lack of any common ground between the two sides of the Arab Israeli animosities it is actually surprising that the world insists on solving the situation. This will provide an interesting situation once the promise that there will be a peace agreement this time from President Obama and company runs forcefully headlong into the refusal to accept any agreement which falls short of the Palestinian maximalist demands. Mahmoud Abbas and numerous other Palestinian leaders have stated outright that there can be no solution to the situation that is acceptable if that solution does not eradicate the Jewishness of Israel replacing it with an Arab Muslim run state. It is not as if President Obama did not attempt to mollify the Palestinians in his initial attempts at posing as a mediator in the Palestinian Israeli peace process. President Obama introduced the concept of a building freeze being imposed solely on the Jewish communities of East Jerusalem, Judea and Samaria. It was he who backed the demands that the future borders for the Palestinian state be along the 1949 Armistice lines, the very same lines the Arab League demanded never be considered as a demarcation for borders as doing so would give the Jewish State of Israel recognizable borders making it a defined state. President Obama was the first presumably neutral mediator to demand that Jerusalem be divided allowing the Palestinians to also have their capital city in Jerusalem. It was under Obama’s Presidency that the State Department refused to allow the American parents whose child was born in western Jerusalem hospital which has always been within the Israeli borders to have Israel as the place of birth on the child’s passport. Why would anybody doubt the neutrality of President Obama simply because of these little infractions permitted or actually implemented by his administration.


It will quickly become desirable that President Obama simply accept his mortal limitations and just walk away from the Arab Israeli Gordian Knot rather than waste effort and the lives it will inevitably cost trying to force his interpretation of a fair and even solution. What makes the proposition of President Obama attempting to force a solution so horrifying is his propensity to avoid difficulties and shy away from situations where his ideas are challenged, let alone flat refused and scorned, and the idea of finding a solution which is guided by avoiding rejection is simply frightening. Since President Obama has no manner of threat or influence over the Palestinians and little support available from the rest of the world to pressure Abbas, the sole route available will be to pressure Israel and threaten Israel with military and economic boycotts though such actions will never be stated openly but be issued through back channels, but such pressures will be utilized to attempt to force Israel to accept a peace acceptable to the Palestinian demands. The real evil will come once Israel has accepted far more than is comforting under intense pressure from President Obama and Abbas simply decides, as he has done all along, that he just discovered a few more little items which must be remedied. What happens once President Obama finally realizes that there is no offer that will ever completely satisfy Abbas as Abbas cannot allow a solution as accepting any peace with Israel would be the end of his comfortable position. Just as happened in Gaza once the Israelis were removed and the IDF no longer patrolled Gaza and Hamas simply drove the Palestinian Authority from Gaza and took over in a violent coup. Since then Mahmoud Abbas has only dared enter Gaza with guarantees for his safety from Hamas and even then his visits seemed reserved and understated avoiding anything which might be interpreted as a challenge to the rule by Hamas. There is going to be a judgment coming on the character and fortitude possessed by President Obama and my fear is that he will fall far short of honorable and willing to face a difficult challenge and honor equity and fairness over expediency. Expediency will extract an inhuman cost that simply must not be borne.


Beyond the Cusp


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