Beyond the Cusp

August 22, 2018

Israeli Defense Official Finally Telling Gazans the Truth


Sometimes it takes somebody with the bravado mixed with common sense and a touch of savvy to break original ground and try just using the truth and reality of the situation. Such has been the message to the Gazan people from the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), Kamil Abu-Rukun, who last week on Friday urged the people of Gaza to choose economic growth over terrorism. Abu-Rukun wrote in a post on COGAT’s Arabic-language Facebook page, “When terror grows, the Palestinian economy declines.” From there he went on to conclude with some hard facts informing them that, “In 1992 more than 90,000 Gazan workers entered Israel every day, but since then the number has dropped to 0. The terrorist organizations are undermining the stability and the Palestinian economy. Residents of Gaza, the choice is yours: Terrorism or economic growth.” This is also to a slightly lesser extent the truth in the Palestinian Authority controlled areas where terrorism and murdering Israelis is a form of government employment which pays more than any actual job available, even if one were able to find such employment. The truth is that the economies of Gaza and the Palestinians in the Shomron were amongst, if not, the highest in the world year after year. Their health statistics were rising as was their life quality. They were slowly becoming a working partner with Israel. They were seeing infrastructure being improved with new schools, universities, hospitals, clinics, roads, electrical power grids, water systems, sewage treatment and virtually every area of life on the upswing. These are facts which anybody who cares to do the research can find out for themselves. So, what happened that things became so horrible and that Gaza is considered on the verge of economic collapse and the Palestinian Authority ruled regions are not that much better off?


The break point was the year 1993. This was when the Palestinian Liberation Organization was transformed, in name only as it remained a terror operation, and given a new title of the Palestinian Authority (PA). Arch terrorist Yasser Arafat was crowned President of the Palestinians. This was the solution to the First Intifada which started in December of 1987 and continued until September of 1993 coming to an end mysteriously just as the PA was brought back from Tunisia with Yasser Arafat and his merry band of terrorist masters and placed as the rulers of the Palestinian Arabs. This was the result of the Oslo Accords, the greatest imposition of attempts to destroy Israel ever fashioned and brought on by behind the scenes activities initiated by the Norwegian government acting in concert with European influence. The principle Norwegian actors were Jan Egeland, Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister, who provided political cover, facilities and finances for the negotiations, Johan Jørgen Holst, Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Terje Rød-Larsen, Norwegian facilitator during the negotiations and Mona Juul, Norwegian facilitator during the negotiations. They met secretly with an Israeli delegation who, to this day, it is unclear who appointed them, how they were granted the rights to make such decisions and whether their actions were closer to treasonous or simple blind leftist belief that even the worst terrorist can be transformed into a statesman by providing them a platform, honorable title, lots of foreign and Israeli money and universal recognition; they were dead wrong on all counts. These individuals were Yossi Beilin, Israeli negotiator during the Oslo peace process; Yair Hirschfeld, Israeli negotiator during the Oslo peace process; Shimon Peres, Israeli Foreign Minister during the Oslo peace process; Ron Pundak, who formed first Israeli negotiating team with Hirschfeld before official Israeli involvement which is important as this was presented to the Israeli government as an almost completed deal; Yitzhak Rabin, Israeli Prime Minister during the Oslo peace process; and Uri Savir, former Director General of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, head of the Israeli negotiating team. There has been much debate about how much Prime Minister Rabin knew about these dealings which had another silent partner, the United States Department of State. The initial plan was for negotiations to last five years and end with a permanent agreement. Yasser Arafat and company had a separate plan, to take every possible concession which could be dragged and forced out of the Israelis until they provided the Palestinian, presumably with assistance from outside Arab nations, with a territorially weakened Israel which could be destroyed with a single force wiping them from the earth. Arafat not only refused every offer including one he had told President Clinton he would accept assuming Israeli Prime Minister Barak would reject but Barak agreed and Arafat stormed from the next morning meeting when the signing was presumed to take place and a few months later initiated the Second Intifada, which was subsequently found to have been his plan even before the peace conference known as the Camp David Summit had even started. All the Oslo Accords were to Arafat and Abbas was their way to get their nose into the tent and then were to act as the proverbial camel in an old Arabic tale.


Camp David Talks on a Break as President Bill Clinton, Yasser Arafat and Prime Minister Ehud Barak Stroll the Grounds of the Complex Located Ten Miles North of Frederick, Maryland

Camp David Talks on a Break as President Bill Clinton, Yasser Arafat and Prime Minister Ehud Barak Stroll the Grounds of the Complex Located Ten Miles North of Frederick, Maryland


This was the very point where the Palestinian Arab economy changed from productivity and employment into terrorism and the attempted destruction of Israel. A general overview can be read here. The greatest downturn came immediately after the initiating of the Second Intifada which led to the building of a wall between Israeli territory and the regions within the Shomron from whence most of the terrorist bombings originated. This wall was immediately referred to by the leftists and Arab influence as the Apartheid Wall but Israelis were satisfied as before this barrier was out in place to prevent terrorist bombings, Israel had been suffering suicide bombings on a weekly basis and after the completion of the wall, whose route was diverted numerous times to comply with complaints filed by Arab farmers such that their fields were accessible sometimes due to court orders from the Israeli Supreme Court who heard these cases, the bombings dropped to virtually zero. The people who were supposed to be protected found they no longer needed suffer trepidation just for getting onto a bus to go to or from work or entering a restaurant or pizza parlor. The Second Intifada was brought to an end after the Passover Seder dinner where largely older couples in attendance were destroyed when the room in the Park Hotel in Netanya was destroyed in a suicide bombing which murdered thirty of the guests and employees and caused injuries to one-hundred-forty others. The Park Plaza bombing happened on March 27, 2002 and beginning on March 29, 2002 and continuing through May 3, 2002 came Operation Defensive Shield which was an IDF operation sweeping through the Shomron and clearing out as much of the terrorist structure and operational abilities including the bomb making and explosives manufacturing as was possible.


Despite all of this history and the obvious destruction of what was a growing economy and real improvements to the quality of life all being destroyed by the terrorist efforts brought into play be the PLO and others such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the Palestinians still believe that this was worth it if it leads to the destruction of Israel. Their leaders promise that if they sacrifice enough and commit sufficient terrorist acts, then the Jews will leave and go home. Perhaps somebody should also inform them that the Jews who are in Israel are home and that we have waited quite some time to return to our home which we described how empire after empire rode through in waves of war with the Arabs just being one of the more recent conquerors seeking empire and world domination. As Jews, all we ever desired was our little plot of land about the size of New Jersey situated between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. Apparently that is too much for the Arabs to allow as it must all belong to them and so will the entire globe when they finally complete Allah’s desires. Their Quran promises that Islam, in whichever variant destroys all the other variants, will rule the world and everybody will believe exactly the same and be ruled by the truest of the followers of Islam, the Arabs. All one need do is look at the map below and you will realize what a great threat to the Arab and Muslim Worlds the Jewish State of Israel actually poses. The truth is the great sin that Israel has committed has been being successful. How could the Jewish State be successful as they are condemned by Allah, or so their Imams keep telling them. As Jews, we understand as the Christians also told their flocks that the Jews were the condemned of G0d for years. The Muslims claim we were the murderers of their prophets and the Christians claimed we were murderers of their deity. Different times but the same strokes for both groups.


Display of the Muslim Nations of the World in the Middle East, Asia and Northern Africa in Green with Israel depicted in Red making the relative size of Israel evident and consisting of under one percent of the land mass

Display of the Muslim Nations of the World in the Middle East, Asia and Northern Africa in Green with Israel depicted in Red


Kamil Abu-Rukun, commander of COGAT, has proposed a reasonable and valid choice. What is interesting is that it echoes the choice we as Jews are to offer to those who desire to reside within our lands, be they conquerors or a tribe residing within our lands. We tell them they have three choices, first is to reside within and live peaceably and follow the Noahic Code which was the definition in the ancient world of basic civility and a just society, second they may take their possessions and sheep and so forth and leave and we will not harass or chase after them or lastly they may choose to war with us but they are to know that it will eventually be a war of totality where only one will remain. What is strange is that sometimes that total war was not the Jews against those in our lands, it was the next empire rolling through. The Assyrians were replaced by the Babylonians who were replaced by the Persians who lost to the Greeks who were conquered by the Romans who were pushed out by the Caliphate which was replaced by the Crusaders who lost to the Caliphate who were pushed again by the Crusaders who were defeated by the Arabs led by a Kurdish Leader who were conquered by the Ottomans who lost in World War I and were replaced by the Europeans and Russia with the British getting our little region and then Israel finally regained her status as a nation after over two thousand years. We hope you were able to keep up with that. Below are the flags of some of those who either conquered our lands in the Holy Lands or who aspired to rid the world of the Jews such as the Nazis and now Hamas who has such written into their charter.


Flags of Many of the Nations Who Persecuted Jews Throughout History

Flags of Many of the Nations Who Persecuted Jews Throughout History


Kamil Abu-Rukun, commander of COGAT, we thought we might mention, is not Jewish. Abu-Rukun is a Druze officer in the IDF. Kamil Abu-Rukun is from the Druze village of Isfiya near Haifa, has previously held the posts of Israeli governor of the West Bank town of Tul Karm, commander of the Israeli army’s coordination and liaison unit with Gaza, deputy coordinator of government activities in the territories and head of the Israeli Civil Administration in the West Bank. He has served exceptionally well and is well respected in both the Israeli general community and within the Druze community. His new post appointment was announced back in December of last year by Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman. If you wish to see Abu-Rukun performing some of his optional duties, here is his twitter post when he greeted some of the one-hundred-twenty-thousand Palestinian residents of Judea and Samaria who entered Israel in honor of Ramadan. One who would continue and read more on his twitter page would realize some truths seldom told by the media around the world as if Israel is not the evil and terrible place, what kind of news would there be? We can only pray that the people of Gaza who desire to live a normative life with opportunity for raising a family and not sending their children to be decoys and human shields for terror groups mainly targeting civilians who are also simply desirous of raising a family in safety and to make a world where their children will be more successful and safer than they were. Together, Israel and her Arab neighbors could compliment one another and assist in making all our lives more prosperous as well as healthier, more productive, easier and more caring. This relationship would be preferable for both sides if only it could be given a chance. Israel does not desire to kill Arabs in Gaza or the Shomron. We will act to whatever extent is required to prevent and end terrorism just as any other nation on the planet does including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the nations of Europe, Canada, the United States, China, Russia and all of the others. The new COGAT Commander is willing and desires to work to make the lives of Gazans and all within the Israeli borders safer and more normative with more jobs and greater opportunities than the current path where terrorism is the path taken will lead. Eventually, Israelis will demand that the terrorism be permanently stopped and that will be a very sad day and a day of reckoning where the future will be determined for many in a very short stroke of time. Please do not wait until things reach that point and choose life and friendship over hatred and terrorism.


Beyond the Cusp


April 7, 2015

Historic Lessons and Future Nuclear War

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Since before Homo Sapiens first walked the earth there were earlier versions which vied for predominance and if but for a super weapon would have become the earlier predecessors of modern man. We postulate that the first super-weapon was likely the club which began as a simple heavy branch of a tree. This was a vast improvement over the closed fist as it granted greater range and impressive additional force. The club proved to give even greater force than the thrown rock though it did place the wielder closer to the prey and thus in greater danger. These weapons improved but eventually there was to come a divide which separated the two main branches contending, though unknowingly; to eventually produce what would evolve to be modern human beings. One group had a sturdy spear which, like its predecessor the club, relied at fighting at close distance from the prey and the other the thrown spear which had to be balanced and was to be hurled from a safe distance though it required carrying numerous spears into the hunt. When these two competing branches of what might become humankind came into direct competition the elegance of the thrown spear and the speed and stamina it had granted its wielder over those who utilized a thicker thrusting spear which required close order and greater strength which had their society develop greater strength at the cost of speed and stamina, the more advanced throwing spear proved the vital difference.


Through the years of human history there has been constant evolution of weaponry with each successive development resulting in a more effective killing machine and greater casualties in each subsequent war. The development war soon became a battle between defensive protection and the ability to deliver harm. Shields and leather armor was superseded by steel weapons which led to layered armors and eventually stronger metals and eventually plate armor which made the wearer almost invulnerable to any single blow from any weapon of its day. This led to two weapons which changed the path of human history. The first was the crossbow which was capable of piercing even heavy plate mail armor and a weapon specific to the soldiers of the British Isles, the longbow. The first use of the longbow, made possible due to the Yew tree and its particular properties, came onto the battlefield with initial devastating results during the Hundred Years’ War in the battle of Crécy where the French had set their camp beyond range of archers, regular archers whose ranges were well known by all. The British archers setup early the next morning much to the bemusement of the French who continued with the breakfast presumably trading jokes about the crazy British lining up their archers beyond possible range. The surprise followed by the utmost confusion interrupted the French merriment and fine food as the longbows delivered with stunning accuracy matching their astonishing range. The range of the longbow being an advantage was relatively short-lived as this super-weapon was soon copied by every army across Europe but too late to cause surprise as tactics, especially pertaining to the distance from the enemy when establishing campsites.


Human history could be considered as a succession of super weapons and the tactics and next super-weapons to counter them. For years the chariot was the ultimate weapon which was used to the utmost perfection by the Egyptians and later the Persians and the one form of attack for which Alexander the Great specifically trained his infantry in a tactic by which to not only blunt their effectiveness but actually defeat their use completely, even the bladed chariot which spun sword-like blades from each wheel. The chariot eventually became the tank and the arrow the bullet, grenade and the anti-tank rockets. The trireme became the galleon and then the ironclad to the battleship and aircraft carrier. The hot air balloon used to aim artillery eventually led to the biplane which was turned to a machine of war which would become the heavy bomber of World War II and eventually the jet fighters and strategic bombers. These strategic bombers today carry the ultimate weapon man has produced to this day, nuclear weapons. These weapons have been developed to perform precise tasks. These include thermonuclear weapons capable of destroying cities, tactical nuclear weapons useable for total destruction on a scale appropriate for the battlefield, neutron bombs which destroy the living beings while leaving the buildings and all material things completely intact, an Electromagnetic Pulse device which destroys electronic devices with more effective such devices capable of destroying electronic grids on an unimaginable scale, or even the most simple of nuclear weapons such as those which President Obama has promised to prevent Iran from ever obtaining, for as so many say such weapons must never be used. Perhaps we need never use such a phrase when it would be so much more convincing, especially for the United States and its representatives, to say that such weapons must never be permitted to be used ever again and demand that the memory of their initial use be recalled and their horrors understood and perhaps even a bit of contrition might go a long way in proving the honesty of intentions.


The unfortunate reality is that eventually nuclear weapons will fall into or already exist in the wrong hands and they will be utilized as weapons of war once more. They might be implemented as a weapon of last resort to attempt to alter what appears a certain defeat. They might be implemented as the initial weapon in order to produce a level of destruction making any opposition impossible and producing what is hoped will result in an unalterable victory. They might be used solely to alter the areas of a battlefield where defeat appears inevitable or used to replace artillery in paving a clear path for an advance. The inevitable truth is every ultimate weapon has been used in war even despite treaties or agreements. World War I saw the extensive use of nerve agents and poison gas which produced such a horrific toll in human life that it was relegated to the dustbin of history presumably due to treaties reached after the war making their use illegal. There have even been weapons control treaties since then forcing the destruction of stores of chemical and nerve agents. Still, despite the red line threat by United States President Obama, Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad turned to chemical weapons repeatedly ignoring any threats and calling President Obama who backed down sputtering helplessly until Russian President Putin offered a way out which the United states President jumped at and then allowed for Assad to renege on the deal without paying any penalty. There have been laws to war agreed upon by major powers but often only ever observed by one side in most conflicts. Another weapon which saw extended use even to the recent age but has been targeted for elimination by the United Nations and numerous nations are landmines due to their toll of killing civilians even years after the war in which they were utilized had ended. The same is the case for cluster munitions which place bomblets across a wide area often scattering many unexploded munitions which are relatively small but remain deadly even for years after the conflict has ended. These as well have hurt many civilians and often have taken the lives of children most regrettably. There are presumably treaties against the use of weapons of mass destruction which, unsurprisingly, nuclear weapons are the current kings. Still, the treaties are merely pieces of paper and are not the most effective counter to any kind of weapons and especially not against nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction.


All of this leads us to the current situation where we have been told that huge amounts of progress have been made and a framework has been constructed for the remainder of the negotiations which will now have June 30 of this year to reach a final agreement. The expectation is that we will believe that the framework is the actual and set in stone agreement of principles from which the rest of the agreement will be fleshed out and the framework will define the end agreement. What the Iranians have agreed is that they provided President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry with their necessary framework which includes everything they had pursued and explained to the Iranians were necessary for them to continue. This was granted to them but the Iranians have little if any intent of continuing to negotiate using the framework as their model and skeleton around which to structure the finished agreement. The Iranians have simply provided President Obama a piece of paper to wave around and claim victory knowing that the end result will have little if anything in common with the framework. The Iranians believe that everything is fungible and the framework is actually made of wet clay and can be remolded and remodeled until it looks exactly what Iran desires or it will be balled up and discarded. President Obama has about as much a framework as British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlin had after the 1938 Munich treaty with Germany. There is a great difference between the framework and the Munich treaty, there are a lot more people suspicious and untrusting that any kind of agreement has been defined by this framework and that the June 30 deadline is almost as meaningless as the past deadlines which have been redefined repeatedly thus far. The odds are that just like North Korea, the Iranians have developed and are producing nuclear weapons and readying the necessary missiles including ICBMs on which to mount their warhead. One thing that makes this even more believable is that many in the State Department negotiations team are the same people who made up the negotiating team that negotiated North Korea into being nuclear armed on their watch. The parallels between the two negotiations are astounding where though the locations have changed, there are actually many of the same players.


The thing that needs to be debated is what to do should, or when, it becomes obvious that the Iranians have been negotiating in bad faith and have been developing and building nuclear weapons while giving the IAEA inspectors the runaround and extending negotiations until they are ready for whatever usage they have planned for their nuclear weapons arsenal. This is not because Secretary of State Kerry is intentionally permitting this farce to occur with his being a willing accomplice. He likely believes that he and the team selected are working towards a comprehensive agreement that will prevent the Iranians from developing and building nuclear weapons. Of course there is the possibility that President Obama and those working with the Iranians are all knowingly working a grand deception. Those believing such a conspiracy existing are beyond skeptical and possibly beyond cynical and into the range of conspiracy theorists who find monsters, intrigues, schemings, duplicities and deceits of every nature lurking everywhere in our world and especially in those places where actions by their government and even more so when their government is dealing with other governments and the more governments the more conspiracies they can believe. I envy such people as they live in a world of scheming and intrigues at every turn; it must be fascinating with options beyond calculations. Me, I try to limit myself to one or two conspiracy theories per week as I find enough need for antacids at that level of cunning treacherous inane insanity.


When it comes to the Iranian P5+1 talks we do not need to imagine conspiracies or trickery as there is sufficient reality to keep one’s mind reeling from the levels of absurdity. The Iranian P5+1 talks have been a part of President Obama’s foreign policy where it has been his hope to negotiate a rapprochement with the Mullahs and leadership of Iran bringing them into the light, so to speak, much in the way that Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon pioneered relations with mainland China. Unfortunately for President Obama, unlike China which was seeking a path into the community of nations, Iran has a totally different dream where they lead the newly unified Islamic world of Shiite Muslims into the great conflagration which will bring the return of the Twelfth Imam and the inevitable Islamic universal rule over the Earth forever in unity, peace, tranquility and perfection as defined by the Quran. The newest intrigue came recently when a journalist, who had close ties presumably with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani running the media campaign which many claim was instrumental in his rise to the Presidency, arrive in Lausanne, Switzerland to cover the negotiations surprised the world and sought asylum defecting from Iran. The Journalist named Amir Hossein Motaghi in an interview with an opposition channel from London claiming not to see any sense pursuing the profession of journalist since he only wrote what he was told and not to do honest reporting. But he had far more interesting information, which many immediately jumped upon as convincing evidence of a conspiracy, when he harshly criticized the American role in the talks was solely to convince the other nations of the P5+1, France, Britain, Germany, China and Russia, to accept the Iranian demands in forming the agreement. He also presumably revealed another conspiracy in that a good number of the Iranian negotiating team are reporters dispatched to assure that the only news being reported in Iran meets with the government approval. Hopefully he does not expect that part of his story to shock too many people but his report that the United States is working with Iran and has taken the role of easing the Iranian preferred agreement through the other western nations as Russia and China are not likely to disagree with such wording of an agreement. The proof will come either at the completion of the negotiations in the wording of the final agreement, not even remotely any framework, or when Iran uses a nuclear weapon either in a test or in an actual attack on another nation.


There is one other aspect of the worth of any agreement, and that is the intent of the signatories now and onto future rulers. Should anybody decide to ignore the agreement, either on the Iranian side or a future President of the United States deciding that they are not bound by the agreement, then it dies a quick and merciful death. That is the one item which nobody other than the people in question can answer and that is such a remote probability as to make for some additional conspiracy theories. While I am not privileged to know any of these schemes, I can guess that just as many claim perfidy by President Obama, ignorance by Secretary of State Kerry, and differing levels of deceit and dishonesty. The interesting thing is that there are numerous people, some holding high national offices, who are predicting the inevitability for Iran attaining nuclear weapons despite any agreement which might be signed at the end of the negotiations, should such an end ever come to fruition. That is the biggest problem with these negotiations as the existence of a term which is defined in the writings of the Quran named taqiyya (Arabic: طاقية) which allows Muslims to hide their true intentions when doing so is required to advance conditions facilitating the advance of Islamic policies or to give the individuals and those they represent or function with an advantage by pretense, dissimulation or outright lying. This could potentially make any agreement made with the Iranians worthless in reality if they are able to deceive about their intents and sign anything with the intent of completely ignoring the terms and limitations of that treaty. When you partner in negotiations believes that it is perfectly moral and virtuous to deceive you and conceal their intents and even define items to mean exactly the opposite or mean anything other than your understanding, then the wording of any agreement is worthless. This was the problem with the 1938 Munich agreement which eventually cost Europe the ultimate price, a price they are still reaping the rewards of that mistake. I fear if the negotiations with Iran produce similar results, the world will be unable to hold up under the ramifications of deceit in these talks.


Another word and concept that should be taken into consideration is Hudna (Arabic هدنة) as its definition is vitally important, especially if the Iranians are looking at this as such a treaty, then we know that it can only be expected to apply for a decade at the longest. Perhaps this is why the major stipulations of the framework are set to expire after ten years. If that was the reasoning behind such a limitation, then why was that not mentioned as it would have been the perfect excuse for the limitation. Maybe there are too many coincidences or maybe we are being denied all the pertinent information, but there are too many things which are suspicious about the framework that beg for an explanation to just let things go by without questions being asked and answers given. Maybe we are all becoming too cynical and suspicious leading us to read more into trying to explain things which will be explained as the final agreement is laid out. The last item that is really worth demanding an explanation is why this agreement will be reached and affirmed by a back door to force it on the American public. Having the treaty affirmed by the United Nations and not through Congress does place a dark cloud of suspicion over the deliberations, the seeming near blackout with information being carefully released to the public and all the secrecy just screams for us to look out and demand some of that transparency we were promised when President first ran and won office in 2008 as the lack of same also leads solely to public suspicions. Just this once open the doors and windows and allow the light of day to shine on everything as what do you have to lose as you are in the final two years or is this the final surrender in your plan to remake America and her place in the world. I sure hope this is not a total cover-up for allowing the Iranians to gain nuclear weapons so they can become the world’s hegemonic power in the Middle East, as that has to be one of the worst betrayals of the free world in history. If that is your plan for your legacy, then you will receive a special place in history, the place of the singular President who brought on the final conflagration that Albert Einstein claimed would cause the next war after that to be fought with sticks and stones. I promise you that is not the remembrance you should desire as it will cause the memory of your name to be even worse than that of Benedict Arnold or Guy Fawkes and be the President that sold out the world and all sense and reason simply seeking a legacy. What a legacy that will make.


Beyond the Cusp


April 3, 2015

Deal that Assures a Nuclear Armed Iran


The one overriding fact which we have known and has been confirmed by multiple sources is that Iran has what they refer to as “R-265 spheroidal three-stage warheads” which are almost ready to load atop the Mullahs missiles within their nosecones. The Shabab-3 or Zelzal-3 missiles are renamed from their North Korean origins named No-dong-1 and Ro-dong 1 which were in turn basically renamed from their Soviet designed Scud B with later upgraded missiles being based on the Scud C and Scud D. The Shahab-3 or Zelzal-3 have been set to launch reaching Tel Aviv and delivering the warhead for an airburst detonation approximately 650 meters over the greater Tel Aviv metropolitan area. This would make this detonation closely replicate the atomic bombs detonations over Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The accuracy of these warheads will depend greatly on whether they will be spin stabilized before reentry or simply allowed to tumble around their center of gravity upon reentry as the earliest of this variant of missile were designed to do. The reentry capabilities along with the possible use of GPS in the spun reentry advanced warhead having an accuracy of as close as within two-hundred meters and if simply using the tumbling reentry which would not have GPS capability would then drop the accuracy to approximately one kilometer. One does need to take into consideration that like horseshoes, nuclear devices have the quality that closeness counts quite heavily.


Iran was known to have had difficulties with their tumbling warheads self-destructing upon reentry. We can expect that this problem was eliminated either through stronger warhead construction or simply by designing warheads to spin upon reentry thus eliminating the problem caused by tumbling while also increasing accuracy, a double bonus. Further, if a Shahab-3 or Zelzal-3 were launched from western Iran, say Tabriz, Iran, then any variant of these missiles would have sufficient range to reach Tel Aviv and the updated version could easily make such a trip and would have sufficient range to be fired from downtown Tehran thus making a big show around such a launch. There are still unanswered questions about the advanced multi-stage missiles which Iran may have developed and their potential range. Such ICBMs would easily be capable of striking within the United States with some estimates placing even Chicago within the limits of the most advanced Iranian multi-stage missiles. It is also known that Russia shared with Iran their plans for a Super EMP device which is claimed to be easily placed atop any Iranian missile and not only having no interference with its range but as it is lighter than most other warheads, including conventional warheads, would actually permit for an increased range. It has been verified that Iran is capable of striking anywhere in Europe up to and including Paris with London just beyond their insured and validated missile capabilities. On the other hand, even should Iran not have yet to developed an actual ICBM capable of striking within the United States, Iran has allies in Central and South Americas who would bring much of the United States well within range though assembly and setting up such a rocket launch would likely be detected well before its launch.


The greatest fear of an Iranian strike on the continental United States would come from one of two sources; either the Iranians have developed a multi-stage or possibly a single stage ICBM with sufficient range to cover the distances from Tehran which is 9879 kilometers or 6139 miles or 5334 nautical miles to New York City, 10200 kilometers or 6338 miles or 5507 nautical miles to Washington D.C, 11846 kilometers or 7361 miles or 6396 nautical miles to San Francisco, 10880 kilometers or 6761 miles or 5875 nautical miles to St. Louis and lastly10755 kilometers or 6683 miles or 5807 nautical miles to the furthest point, Seattle, Washington in the northwest. Of course there is the fact that Iran has perfected the ability of launching one of their Shabab-3 or Zelzal-3 missiles from aboard a freighter camouflaged as carrying regular cargo in shipping containers which would place every last part of the United States within easy range and also not allow sufficient time for any coastal cities such as Boston, Baltimore, Washington D.C, New York City, Atlanta, Houston, Los Angeles, San Diego and its Navy Base at Coronado, San Francisco and Seattle to react and implement anti-missile units into position to protect them from such attacks launched from less than fifty miles off the coast as the freighter would simply appear to be heading for the docks to download their cargo and then in a short transformation time become an active missile launching base with perhaps half a dozen or more missiles to attempt to launch at various targets before they were engaged by Air Force, Navy or Army air assets destroying the offending ship.


These frightening realities brings us back to the crux of the situation, the Iranian ability to covertly manufacture nuclear warheads for any of these systems and thus bring their mass chants of “Death to America! Death to Israel!” to fruition and by doing so place itself as the leader of the Muslim world, and more importantly placed all the Arab nations in a weakened position with their populations suddenly desiring to join the Shiite leaders of Iran giving up on the apparently weaker Sunni leaders. As we know, nothing succeeds like success and mortally wounding both the United States and Israel would definitely depict Iran as the strong horse, the stallion amongst a herd of neutered geldings. The supposed impossibility is for Iran to successfully conceal at some secret instillation a series of twenty or more cascaded super-sonic centrifuges spinning Uranium-Hexafluoride gas (UF6) with each centrifuge pulling its gas from the central cylinder of the previous centrifuge and spinning the slightly purer UF6 gas which allows the lighter isotope of Uranium 235 (U-235) from the heavier isotope of Uranium 238 (U-238) with each stage of the cascaded centrifuges makes its contribution of stripping away the U-238 spinning it to the sides of the centrifuge while leaving the U-235. Originally the Uranium Ore mined from the ground is made up of over 99% U-238 and mere traces of the desired U-235. The entire negotiations revolved around how Iran could be monitored thus making the production of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) impossible and easily detectable thus only permitting Iran to enrich their ore to make Uranium that is of a low enrichment no higher than twenty percent and very little of that with much of their Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) limited to five percent or three percent which can be used solely in their reactors and also used in medical procedures which may use enriched Uranium as high as twenty-percent.


According to President Obama, there now exists, thanks to United States Secretary of State John Kerry, an agreement which “has reached an historic understanding with Iran which, if fully implemented, will prevent it from a nuclear weapon.” President Obama continued convincingly claiming, “I am convinced that if this framework leads to a final comprehensive deal it will make our country, our allies and our world safer.” President Obama literally lit up as he boasted, “Today after many months…we have achieved the framework for…(a) deal, and it is a good deal, a deal that meets our core objectives,” he stipulated that it cuts off every pathway to developing a nuclear weapon. Continuing along I was worried that the American negotiators were going to simply roll over on every point simply to give President Obama a foreign policy achievement which would cover three pathways to prevent Iran attaining nuclear weapons. The first pathway blocked was the Arak Heavy Water reactor where Iran will not be permitted to collect and process the spent rods allowing them to process Plutonium. Iran has also agreed to never build another heavy water facility. The second pathway involved Iran simply only being permitted using one-third of their existing centrifuges, closing its Fordo Plant for the next ten years. Further, Iran must not stockpile materials required for building a nuclear weapon for the next 15 years. They must also neutralize any Uranium making it useless in the manufacture of a nuclear weapon. Iran has theoretically agreed upon a twenty year full inspection routine which is presumably so invasive and thorough that should Iran transgress on any of the former items that the world will know of it long before the Iranians are able to reach building a nuclear weapon. That begs the question as to what if the inspections is where they renege, then the world would be blind to any other forbidden acts or clandestine work towards the manufacture of a weapon.


The entire framework depends on Iran permitting free and untethered inspections of their every platform where it is suspected that work towards a nuclear device is progressing. The agreement also depends on Iran being at least a full year away from its breakout point, something where Israel disagrees claiming they have approximately six weeks or less to a breakout point thus making many of the points stressed by President Obama appear optimistic. This so-called framework also depends on the fact that President Obama and the Iranians agree on exactly what each word of terminology actually mean and the definition of every term. This framework is also still months or even years from being an actual agreement and meanwhile the Iranians are refusing to answer direct questions from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), continuing to spin their centrifuges including those at Fordo, and working on any unfinished items on their way to a nuclear weapon. There is many a slip ‘twixt the spoon and the tongue. This has proven to be excessively valid when dealing with the Iranians. They have often come back after agreeing to stipulated terms and explained that what the P5+1 thought some phrase means is not even close to what the Iranians interpreted as the meaning. It is very similar to Princess Bride when the Spaniard, Inigo Montoya, stated to Vizzini, “You keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means.” The Iranians have already backtracked when confronted with actual implementation on previous agreements claiming that there must have been an unfortunate misunderstanding which will then entail weeks of straightening out a misunderstanding claimed by Iran and by the time everything has been reworded properly the entire section of the agreement will have been basically neutered and rewritten to favor the Iranians progressing to wholesale production of nuclear weapons. My fears is that in these negotiations that the United States will have proven by the end that they have been completely hoodwinked and made to appear bonkers with Iran getting everything they desired when all is said and done and every paper signed making a furious roar but signifying nothing. The question the world should figure out is who will be the first victim once Iran has nuclear weapons, Israel, the United States or possibly Saudi Arabia or Egypt. That is the question which has the experts completely vexed and unknowing each giving their own expert advice, my not so expert advice is first will be the United States and it will prevent their retaliating while they start frantically attempting to restore the power grid with minimal fatalities allowing Iran a free hand to accomplish whatever their evil little heart’s desire. After taking out the United States from the game, the Iranians will know that they have built the world’s largest deliverable nuclear stockpile and then they will begin to start using them to attain their own ends. When Iran starts down this path using their nuclear devices, then the world will understand true chaos meant to facilitate their ends and opening the world to such chaos in order to bring on the Twelfth Imam. These negotiations are actually Iran buying time while they assemble their nuclear arsenal and plot the best way to maximize the effects and ramifications of their utilizing all of their weapons in order to cement their place as the new hegemonic power in the world. The Iranians, especially their rulers, are set upon returning Iran to the glories and conquests of the entire world as had their forefathers, the Persians. This is also another reason that the Iranians desire to conquer or at least defeat the Americans as they are seen as the new Greek empire because of their governance using so many of the Greek concepts of democracy and republic. The time to start worrying is when the Iranians complete their talking as that means they are done with talking and now believe it is the time for them to act. That will be the time to have your plans ready as the Iranians will be committed to accomplishing theirs and that you can bet on and take it to the bank.


Beyond the Cusp


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