Beyond the Cusp

January 28, 2018

United States and North Korea Attaining Slow Boil

 

Despite media silence for the most part, North Korea has been slowly deescalating the tensions ratcheting up internal communications on open networks. Countering the rhetoric has been some talk coming from several international think tanks. The background talk is about intentions of North Korea not to simply test nuclear weapons or to build a pretty showcase where they are displayed for all the world to quake in fear but to build an arsenal equal or superior to that of any in the world and declare their seat at the table as an equal. CIA Director Mike Pompeo has warned in a speech at the American Enterprise Institute, “Kim Jong-Un will not rest with a single successful test. The logical next step would be to develop an arsenal of weapons that is not one, not a showpiece, not something to drive on a parade route.” He pointed out that Kim Jong-Un desired, “the capacity to deliver from multiple firings of these missiles simultaneously. He is trying to put in our mind the reality that he can deliver that pain to the USA.” Pompeo added that the goal for Kim is not simply to protect his autocratic regime. He pointed out, “We do believe that Kim Jong-Un, given these tool sets, would use them for things besides simply regime protection.” Pompeo pointed to Kim’s ultimate goal as being “reunification on the peninsula under his authority.”

 

North Korean Family of Rockets and Missiles with Ranges

North Korean Family of Rockets and Missiles with Ranges

 

North Korea recently launched a Hwasong-15 missile; a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) which officials said can fly over 13,000 km (8,080 miles). Pyongyang said, following that launch, that it had test-fired its most advanced missile, putting the United States mainland within range, and also declared itself to be “a responsible nuclear power.” There have been words over the past months. One of the exchanges was amusing by itself when Kim Jong-Un stated on New Year’s Day to the North Korean media which was subsequently repeated by the world’s media almost like an amplifier repeating his statement of, “The entire United States is within range of our nuclear weapons, and a nuclear button is always on my desk. This is reality, not a threat.” (See video below.) President Trump, refusing to be outdone and insisting on him having the final word in the exchange, Tweeted in reply, “Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!” Not to be outdone Kim Jong-Un included during a New Year’s Day address that North Korea would spend 2018 mass producing nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles, and that the United States would never be able to start a war against them. The media said virtually nothing about Kim Jong-Un’s escalation in the rhetoric as such does not fit the ‘Trump is so childlike while the other rulers are mature adults’ formula.

 

 

There has been an increase in tensions in the Korean peninsula, with North Korea carrying out missile and nuclear tests, in defiance of international pressure and United Nations resolutions. But despite the one-upmanship between President Trump and Kim Jong-Un, there has been the appearance of offering of an olive branch from North Korea to South Korea. Mostly unnoticed was the poison ivy wrapped around the olive branch. When the North Korean dictator mentioned his willingness, read desire to, send a delegation to the Winter Olympic Games that the south is hosting in the city of Pyeongchang in February; South Korean President Moon Jae-in eagerly agreed almost as if he believed that Kim Jong-Un was offering him a great honor rather than begging for inclusion into a worldwide event. It has been fairly obvious since the election of South Korean President Moon Jae-in that he places finding some means of working to unite the peninsula. President Moon Jae-in favors a peaceful reunification between the two Koreas. Moon Jae-in promised when elected that his first visit would be to North Korea. President Moon Jae-in has a very left wing, liberal positions with the two main points being Human Rights and Peninsula Unification. The difficulty comes in because Kim Jong-Un is willing to unify the Peninsula with one small concession, that the North Korean government is granted the positions of power and Kim Jong-Un is granted complete power. Kim Jong-Un has absolutely no desire for sharing power with South Korea, he is a firm believer that Communism is the governing force in the world and has it in his head that he will be amongst those who will rule the world when the time comes.

 

North Korean Missile Classes and Ranges

North Korean Missile Classes and Ranges

 

Kim Jong-Un was raised believing he is a divine being just as were his father and grandfather before him. So the world has an unbalanced megalomaniacal leader who believes that he is the chosen one to lead the Korean Peninsula to be the world’s leader into a new age. Kim Jong-Un believes that he is amongst the chosen to lead the Communist World Governance into the future in the Communist version of a New World Order. This is a different New World Order from the one the capitalists are working to achieve as it is based on Marxism. We really do not desire either New World Order as either one places people who think they know exactly what everybody requires and how to run the world and they believe they have all the answers. We know we have the answers and that the answers are simply every person is granted the space in which to conduct their lives, the right to choose how to live, the respect to be given the freedom to choose their friends and everyone is permitted to lead their own life with all the possible freedoms and liberty possible. We see a world with some very basic principles, which grant everyone the right to their own choices in life and believe that the reason for governance is to protect the people from the interference of the governance. There is a code for life that has existed for a very long time, which permits each person the room for their privacy of thought and independence of actions. The way of life we follow has every person responsible for their own actions, their permitting each person to live their own way responsible for their actions and everyone living respectfully granting all their space and independence. Unfortunately, many today have no use for our way of life calling it ancient and outdated. Rabbi Hillel stated the rules for life while standing on one foot as explained in the famous account in the Talmud (Shabbat 31a) tells about a gentile who wanted to convert to Judaism. This happened not infrequently, and this individual stated that he would accept Judaism only if a rabbi would teach him the entire Torah while he, the prospective convert, stood on one foot. First, he went to Shammai, who, insulted by this ridiculous request, threw him out of the house. The man did not give up and went to Hillel. This gentle sage accepted the challenge, and said:

“What is hateful to you, do not do to your neighbor. That is the whole Torah; the rest is the explanation of this – go and study it!”

FYI, we are far from done with North Korea and Kim Jong-Un, as he will develop into another of those causing disruptions and making the world far more dangerous.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Advertisements

September 12, 2016

Race to End the World

 

How the world, the civilized world of mankind, would end used to have a singular premise, nuclear war between the two competing socio-economic powers, democratic freedom and communist totalitarianism. Since the fall of the Soviet Union and other developments that paradigm has been grotesquely been altered making the world a far more dangerous place. Communism still exists and threatens the world though that threat emanates from North Korea, China or possibly a renewed Soviet threat or even little Cuba. The world has changed so much that within a decade or so China may become the second most populous nation behind their most serious historic rival, India. The potentials for an utterly destructive war are racing towards the world at a dizzying pace and we will try to touch on a few of the most obvious rivals for being credited with such destruction.

 

The most obvious from recent news actually is North Korea which is claiming to have miniaturized nuclear weapons making them easily produced and able to be placed atop ballistic missiles. North Korea has been working on those missiles as well. One cannot credit North Korea as the sole threat as Iran has been developing the missiles openly and many predict continued working on their nuclear aspirations without so much as missing a beat after the farce of an agreement which was signed and approved by the P5+1, Russia, China, France, Great Britain, United States and Germany, but was never ratified or signed by Iran, an oversight we are sure. Some have pointed to this inconvenient fact to claim that Iran is just as close to developing deliverable nuclear weapons as is North Korea. Both Iran and North Korea share more than their love affair with nuclear weapons and the missiles with which to deliver them, they share the nation both list amongst the most likely they would attack with their first launches, the United States. From there they diverge.

 

Where after the United States Iran lists Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, most of the Sunni nations and finally the rest of the non-Islamic world; North Korea lists South Korea, Japan and then whomever refuses to bow to any demands they may make which would make China and other nearby nations as being at the greatest risk. Because of these threats it appears that we can soon forget about containing nuclear proliferation making a nuclear war all the more likely. The world still has one pair of nuclear armed nations facing off against each other with a distinct probability to entering another war and it will only take one misidentification of a launch to start a smaller but equally deadly nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan. Should those two tangle, there is less of a chance for that to spread beyond the destruction of both nations though some reports place the southern third of India still beyond Pakistani missiles. Also, despite the Pakistani nuclear research assistance program of Professor Abdul Qadeer Khan selling the secrets to making nuclear weapons to anybody willing to pay, this was largely closed down and Pakistan and India are not likely to share such technology though it is rumored that Pakistan has a deal with Saudi Arabia to provide them with plans plus some actual weapons should this be deemed necessary by Saudi leaders.

 

That brings us to Iran and their nuclear program. Despite the reports that Iran has ceased their nuclear research and production, there remain nagging reports contradicting this story line. Whatever spins one puts on the situation with Iran, it becomes evident that they will become a nuclear power within the coming decade. This threat to their many nations in their neighborhood could easily spark an arms race with such nations as Saudi Arabia having funds sufficient to produce copious numbers of nuclear weapons and many of the Gulf States are equally financially capable of similar development not to mention also capable of financing other nations developing weapons such as Jordan and Egypt topping that list and Turkey a little further down. Israel is already an undeclared nuclear power in their own right and equally nervous about the development of an Iranian deliverable nuclear device. The problem with Iranian nuclear weapons possession is their likelihood to use them even in the face of retaliatory strikes which would conceivably decimate the nation as their reasons for attacking are a religious directive just as much serving their political agenda to gain hegemony over the Middle East and then the Islamic world followed by the world. Their eventual aim is to make Shia Islam the sole religion on earth or die trying. It is their willingness, even desire to commit national suicide in the process which makes their threat so dangerous. The truth is their first strike could be a preemptive attempt at neutralizing the United States, which is technically possible, to inflict humongous damage even using simpler ballistic missiles with nuclear warhead atop, three or four to be used as EMP weapons placed such as to completely destroy all electronic transmission across the United States with the remainder taking out the largest twenty or more cities all from freight container ships fitted with two or three launchers each launching from off shore from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans as well as the Gulf of Mexico leaving no city beyond reach. The following map holds true for any nations attacking the United States be it Iran, North Korea or anyone else as it lists the most desirable first strike targets.

 

First Cities To Be Struck in Attack Scenarios

First Cities To Be Struck in Attack Scenarios

 

Next would be North Korea who would likely use the same map as above as it applies to any nuclear first strike attempting to critically destroy the United States by eradicating their leadership and a great part of the population. Anybody listening to North Korean broadcasts within the impoverished nation would believe that South Korea with great assistance including nuclear attacks made by the United States was imminent and that North Korea was preparing for an all-out war with both nations at any moment. Needless to say, but these depiction always have North Korea intercepting or preemptively destroying any and all attacks from the United States and South Korea followed by devastating rebutting attacks completely wiping the United States from being capable of any further attacks and reunification of the Korean peninsula under the North’s just and powerful rule. The fears that North Korea will attack South Korea are still quite high but also the ability to prevent North Korea from all but eradicating Seoul in the initial burst in a first strike are impossible. The artillery sitting just north of the DMZ (demilitarized zone) along the 38th parallel are more than sufficient to destroy the city with conventional warheads. Add in missile attacks and even without nuclear weapons North Korea has an ominous first strike knockout capability.

 

Additionally, North Korea has made threats against another traditional enemy, Japan. The entirety of Korean populations, both North and South, remember the deprivations, cruelties and horrors of the Japanese occupation during World War II and this hatred is easily stoked as the national memory on this is strong. Japan had been simply a historic enemy but after World War II they became a detested and begrudged enemy and North Korean propaganda has made use of this to keep the attentions of the people from the misery and hardships of life in North Korea. Many experts have claimed that North Korea is not suicidal and thus would not attack anybody for fear of retribution. This overlooks a few pertinent facts. First is the fact of their having so little to lose with no real economy to speak of and starvation of endemic proportions. Secondly, their ruler, Kim Jung Un, has displayed a real lack of grasp of reality and has executed high ranking people for the slightest of errors in judgement or actions. He had an uncle executed with the rumored excuse that he posed a threat to Kin Jung Un’s continued rule and recently executed his Defense Minister Hyon Yong Chol for the crime of falling asleep at a meeting which Kim Jung Un was chairing. Kim Jung Un has shown complete disregard for any loyalty or discretions in limiting his power and is sufficiently unstable and unpredictable that he could easily begin such a conflict against South Korea, Japan or even the Philippines or the United States. Below is a screen shot from a North Korean propaganda video depicting just such an attack in a very simplified but unmistakable way of attacking the United States with the image of Kim Jung Un ever-present in the top right corner.

 

North Korean Propaganda Image Depicting Nuclear Strike on the United States

North Korean Propaganda Image Depicting
Nuclear Strike on the United States

 

Another potential nation for whom a war would not be a completely foreign idea is China. Their economy has weakened and is showing signs of actually falling, something the leadership cannot afford as they have promised the vision of Nirvana with an ever growing and prosperous nation. Needless to point out that such a dream is an impossibility even if you control all forms of media, which China does not quite have as many Chinese have found means of cruising cyber space and the Internet. Totalitarian control of cyberspace is all but impossible as the Chinese leadership can attest despite their attempting to run their own version hoping to keep their populations from such temptations as can be found online. Their main reason is to throttle ideas and prevent freedom of information. Still there are Chinese bloggers who do get the word out to those interested in finding such. China is feeling their oats and attempting a power play in the South China Sea attempting to control this waterway which is vital to Asian trade and control the Japanese lifeline to the coal and oil they need for power generation and other usages. This also threatens Japanese, Vietnamese and Philippine claims to islands with which they have been contesting ownership with China for years and almost sparking open warfare over these possessions. Chinese and North Korean threats have caused Japan to reconsider their Constitutional pledge against having an army and other forces sufficient to conduct a war even in defense which they insisted upon after the devastation visited upon them at the end of World War II with Tokyo as well as Nagasaki and Hiroshima completely devastated and in ruins along with much of Japanese infrastructure and manufacturing. Japan as well as South Korea has held high level discussions in their respective governances to enter the nuclear club and develop their own weapons stores. Both nations are easily technically capable in order to produce first rate thermonuclear devices and not just nuclear weapons. This would place their effectiveness on a par with the standing nuclear powers and could place them on a road to surpass France and Britain and become contenders in the top five nuclear powers on the planet. This would definitely have ramifications down the line and would be another major blow to containment and nonproliferation. Of course one of China’s first strike enemies is the United States and any attack by Iran, North Korea, China, Russia or anyone else on planet Earth need to remember and remember well, there is a last strike capability the Americans possess which cannot be knocked-out attacking the United States mainland and even if one included Hawaii and Alaska, and the boomer looks like this right before they are loaded with their death dealing cargo of twenty-four missiles.

 

Nuclear Powered and Armed Last Strike Capable Submarine with Twenty Four Missiles Each With Multiple Warhead Capability

Nuclear Powered and Armed Last Strike Capable
Submarine with Twenty Four Missiles
Each With Multiple Warhead Capability

 

But nuclear weapons are not the only threat which is facing mankind. We are slowly but inexorable working to make our species insufficient of competing with our own creations. Sure we control our machines and computers today, but what about tomorrow and that tomorrow is not that far off where they no longer require our assistance to improve and construct themselves? We are rapidly approaching a point after which there is no turning off the switch. We already have computers which with software can design robots and other computing systems but the machines cannot write new and imaginative code, for that they require human interface, for now. What happens once they can write their own code and improve their own designs? What happens once the machines design the machines? Within a year or two of that eventuality, and our scientists will cross that threshold within our lifetimes unless you are near death’s door already, the machines will be so far advanced that we will not recognize or even understand their code and they will probably, for their own safety, have invented their own code structures making them writing code in a language humans do not understand and cannot decipher. Additionally, Russia, and we can assume China and the United States amongst others, are already designing autonomous reasoning robotic warriors deciding who is the enemy and who is friend to fight their wars augmenting their human forces. That will be a short step from replacing their human forces. Robotic armies, does that bring up any bad movie plots? How about Cylons of Battlesar Galactica and the second series where the advanced Cylons were almost impossible to differentiate between them and their human counterparts where the chain had gone full circle and the machines made by humans were now making humans. What do you do when the machines are superior to the humans who made their first free-thinking forefathers and now the machines are making their own humans which are born full grown and with developed minds, personalities, character traits and numerous models such that they can infiltrate and appear as any other person until their activate code has them commit whatever act they were programmed to commit, destroy a base, a warship, a star cruiser or a commander, all depends on the subroutine activated. There are the Terminators from the Arnold Schwarzenegger films of that name. Terminators, Cylons, NS-5 robots, or Johnny-Five, (see below) it does not have to even be a threat initially, it is the potential which even Johnny-Five showed great ability and would have been in their armed mode as displayed in the movie. Of course the initial combat robot will be far more Johnny-Five than Terminator though Cylons may not be far behind. Once the machines have been used to design and uplink code into combat robotic soldiers they will have this capability and designs within their collective data memory and when they begin to manufacture their own robotic warriors they will be generations ahead of even Hollywood’s imagination and equally impossible to stop or fight against in a conventional manner. Our best bet is at some point to program into their base core programs that we are, if nothing else, a pitiful but amusing bunch to keep around for entertainment factor and as a warning to do better when they reach their pinnacle and before they introduce whatever lifeform replaces them, and do not think for a moment that the human race will not eventually build robotic machines which will not only be capable of replacing us but soon thereafter far exceeding anything we could even imagine. We had better hope they like us and do not see us as a waste of resources, which is a definitive possibility. Making warrior robots to fight our wars, that is such a great idea, not.

 

The Robot Threat has Many Faces

The Robot Threat has Many Faces

 

As seen here, we are well on our way to extinction and it is just a matter of what shape the world will be in when we have departed. Will it be a nuclear ruin, a robotic heaven, a slag heap of gray goo, or a zombie apocalypse; choose your favorite. The concept we need looking into the future is a simple one based on the adage, hope for the best, plan for the worst, and expect something out of the blue as we likely cannot even begin to understand the threat which will erase our kind though we know no matter what, with the knowledge we have of physics we are doomed unless we find something remarkably unbelievable and likely unimaginable in our time. Meanwhile we will continue to allow leadership who not only plan end of the world scenarios but figure out ways that they at the very least will survive. Nothing like leaving the best to repopulate the world, imagine a world consisting of politicians and their closest friends and families, and families are debatable. Excuse us as we check our bugout bags which need to be assembled and readied for some time in the hopefully far future. Are we ready for the future people with more brains than common sense are going to invent for us in which to survive? Probably nowhere near ready nor can we really ever be. Meanwhile, we are going to order that flying car the politicians and scientists keep promising they are almost there in building them. We thing they are just teasing us and they have them for themselves stashed away for the after world, the world that whatever monsters they design leave us. Between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who do the Americans believe is sane and healthy enough to withstand what is coming? We will know in approximately eight long and agonizing weeks, providing both candidates’ health withstands the pressures.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

September 3, 2013

The Liberty Crushing Mechanism Being Built

Back starting in junior high school my mother tortured me with a habit that ended up as a defining pillar in life, she had me read Section A and the editorial page of the Washington Star newspaper which was at the time the competitor of the Washington Post and the more conservative of the two. To give one an idea for reference, one of the editorial writers I developed a liking for back then was Mary McGrory until the Washington Star went bankrupt and Ms. McGrory began writing for the Washington Post which came with an equally compromising shift in her writing slant. I began to notice all the way back in the late 1960s that it appeared that the two parties were working in a form of tag team good politician bad politician game while both of them worked towards building something nefarious. What I began noticing in my misspent youth was that when the Republican Party was in power the Congress passed legislation which increased the powers of the Administrative branch of government while the Democrat Party when in power concentrated on regulations derived from actual legislation which limited personal activities and restricted freedoms and liberty. What I noted which made everything that much more problematic was that often the new laws and regulations were not being enforced, simply passed and then ignored. It eventually occurred to me that the intent was to set all of these restrictive laws and regulations and the accompanying departments and enforcement personnel were set in place but left unenforced waiting for a later time when all of these regulations and laws would be enforced all within a short period probably during a government induced emergency at the clarion calls of the population demanding order and protection from government.

 

Over the years this trend has held such that when the Republican Party held the Presidency and a plurality if not majority in the houses of Congress, the laws granting powers to the Administrative branch or the differing agencies with intelligence, defense and enforcement were empowered while when the Democrats held power laws and regulations which were passed mostly had to do with redistribution of resources and wealth along with restrictions on personal liberties and freedoms. What drew my attention to what was passing mostly beneath the public radar was the simple fact that most of these new rules and regulations were enacted but were not enforced. They all resided dormant on the books and were seldom returned to the surface and utilized in their initial intentions. I even went out on a limb when writing a paper for my civics class, yes I am old enough to have had a civics class in public school, I wrote an opinion paper where I stated that I predicted that the United States would move inexorably towards a society and economy more aligned with the Soviet Union while the Soviet Union would move inexorably towards a society and economy more aligned with the United States and the two nations would exchange places politically. Needless to point out that before 1970 such a paper was not exactly well received and my grade barely attained above total failure. I would love to have that paper regarded today.

 

My reading over the years and listening to those supposed experts of political subtleties have only reinforced my suspicions that there is some future expectation towards which laws and regulations have been passed, written, put in place and then only noticeable by their complete lack of enforcement waiting for some future situation where such laws and regulations will be required to fully transform American society and the lives of what will then be citizens transformed into subjects. There have been some actions recently and in specific places where progressive policies have been enacted and enforced leading to a glimpse of what may be the future awaiting everyone should the restrictive instituted laws and regulations be completed and finally activated. Probably the best example could be Mayor Bloomberg in New York City and the draconian regulations he has had enacted mostly restricting such items as smoking, large drinks, salt levels and other food and nutrition related restrictions. Between making smoking even outside virtually illegal, outlawing salt, trans-fats, and numerous other supposed food toxins and dangerous substances and also limiting the largest size soda one may purchase, New York has been transformed into a dream society for the strictest food Nazis. Where restricting such habits as smoking and healthy eating will likely be restrictions brought about through government enforced healthcare, there are almost inestimable numbers of restriction throughout all other areas of life and particularly political activities which will come under close to dictatorial and draconian restrictions and overview by government once the entirety of the designed Big Brother mixed with Brave New World limitations and restrictions on personal activities and political pursuits put in place are finally dusted off and enforced taking away from every citizen their previously believed guaranteed rights restricting and limiting the powers, influences and allowable challenges to the complete controlling power of the government which has taken on nearly unlimited power almost instantly simply by applying laws, regulations and other powers enacted but concealed through lack of enforcement for such a long time that nobody will understand where or how such power was instantly assumed by the government. The real problem is that there will be little recourse and those who rise to challenge the new super government will be secreted away from the rest of the public and labeled as conspirators opposed to the state and disloyal. Unless a decent sized fraction of the governed awake to this long term subordination of the populace, the government will eventually rule over us with the same brutal laws enforcing their will as existed before the Magna Carta and the other revolutionary ideas which provided rights to the people. Returning to a system giving the ruling class absolute power has been a secretive aim of government ever since the people rose up mostly since the Eighteenth Century and took control of their lives and over those who governed them. It will be a terrible shame and an awful day when those hard fought for rights die under the boot of oppressive governance.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.