Beyond the Cusp

September 6, 2018

Where Will World War III be Initiated?

 

World War I was referred to at the time as the War to End All Wars. The horrific death toll was so great that people believed that the slaughter would impel humanity to act and end all war in the future. The League of Nations was crafted to be a place where all future disagreements between nations could be talked out rather than fought over. Well, this did not work out as expected and instead the precautions placed to prevent Germany from becoming the initiator of any war were the exact reasons, which caused the financial crisis in Germany, which in turn led to Hitler and World War II. The nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima, Nagasaki caused such horrific destructions and further lingering health issues, that it was believed that these would end all wars. Instead of large scale wars, the super powers fought wars through other nations called limited wars instead of wars which would encompass the entirety of the world and weapons as such would, they believed, be the end of civilization if not humankind as well. So, the first question we need address is, what is the possibility that there could ever be another World War, and if so, how, why and where will it originate. These are the questions that we are taking a stab at with our conjecture, suspicions, speculations and subliminal thoughts processes.

 

The first thing we need to do is find any nation or group of nations who either do not believe that nuclear weapons are as horrific as reputed or believe but could not care less. Actually, we do not need an entire nation to fall into these categories, only their top leadership is required providing the politics of the nation or nations in particular have little or no control or influence in changing their leadership or guiding their chosen path. These leaders also will need to not have much concern for the future of their people as long as their ideals and beliefs are furthered. There are certain political types and religious leaders who fit an extreme ‘ends justify the means’ attitudes. The first are often referred to as extremists, usually referred to as Fascists, Communists, Nazis and either extreme right or left. One relatively frequent theory coming from various conspiracy theorists, such as INFOWARS, which claim that the United States is following down the same path as what led to Nazi Germany except when America turns, it will be far worse in results than was World War II or even any imagination of the results of the consequential war which would result. Another theory, which has some relationship to reality, predicts that Islam will unify behind a prophetic figure and make their final push to complete the Quranic predictions that Islam will rule the world and all the people in the world will surrender to Allah. Followers of the Middle East or world news have heard repeatedly the theme from Iran that Israel will be destroyed. There was a period where numerous figures from the Iranian leadership were claiming that Israel would be destroyed within twenty-five years. Further, some of these leaders in Iran when they were asked about any Israeli response to an Iranian attack, often this was in reference to the claim that Israel is a one or two nuclear nation implying that is all it would take to destroy all Israel, stated that it would be worth the destruction of Iran to rid the world of Israel. Such comments should send shivers down the spines of rational people. Add to this that Iranian leaders have warned the United States that should they interfere or harm any Iranian free actions in the Middle East, specifically with their exporting of oil or supplies to their allies across the Middle East, they would respond by attacking Israel. They also implied that the United States might also be struck, but they stated in plain language that Israel would be struck should they feel impinged upon by the United States.

 

Still, the United States is far from becoming a threat to the world and Iran is not likely to actually attack any nation for the time being. This could change at any time, but there would be signs that things are in flux and thus be forewarned. Where there is a problem currently is the building friction between the flood of immigrants from Islamic nations where there is great turmoil and these immigrants are bringing their culture with them and building their own areas within European cities where they enforce Sharia and in some cases even authorities such as police and even firefighters require a large police escort when responding to fires. This has led to an increased presence of far right groups allying with the anti-immigrant emotions. This problem has surfaced in the United States recently with the police intervention into an Islamist compound holding children in New Mexico where the children were being trained, reputedly, to become school shooters and other forms of violence. The problem is far more concerning in Europe, especially in western and northern European nations. The friction between the two cultures in Europe could lead to more violent episodes which could lead to a tipping point where violence could result to such a degree over wide regions such that the police would be an inadequate response, and this could lead to the leader of such an inflicted nation to turn to the military to respond. The militaries have more and more been trained in suppression of civil strife as a preparation for just such instances. Still, the military is far better trained at something far more destructive, warfare. Calling out the military is a reaction which could lead to pushing things over the edge leading to open warfare within the nation, civil wars. The violence could spread from one nation to the next in a domino effect. What might trigger this is after one nation successfully brought a violent episode to an definitive end using the military, it would become a more acceptable response leading to people coming to expect such a response to almost any rising violence as has been witnessed in cities in Europe from time to time. Such violence has almost always led to the government responding with ever greater power utilized which has often led to using the military. This was evidenced by the response in the United States to the events which are called the Battle of Blair Mountain where the military was used to quash the coal miners strike which had become violent. There was the incident after which public opinion forced a change such that United States Marines or other military will not be placed along the border any time in the foreseeable future. Both of these incidents show that no matter the training, the military will do what it is designed to perform, as their job is to kill people and destroy things.

 

Shia vs Sunni

 

So, Iran has to bring more members of Islam over to their form as currently the Shiites make up under ten percent of all Islam. They are centered in Iran, southern Iraq, Bahrain (though under Sunni rule) and northwestern Saudi Arabia. Europe will probably fall to Islam but it might take close to a century for this to finalize. It is possible that the Europeans could all collect in Britain or Norway and make their stand there but for the most part, Europe is facing a diminishing native population which is becoming ever more ripe for foreign takeover. Those who do not wish to become Muslims will probably flee to the United States, Canada or elsewhere in the Americas. Even many of the Jews will head for the Americas with possibly as high as 35% to 45% going to Israel, maybe even less. The United States appears to be on the verge of a civil war but this is highly unlikely. Even should President Trump be reelected, which is a definitive probability, there may be massive rioting in many major metropolitan areas, but these are not the regions where President Trump has swarms of supporters. If requested, President Trump would provide the stricken cities with assistance though in most cases the mayors will simply ask the governor to provide National Guard, something which tends to quiet people down rapidly. One does not have to wonder very hard why the sight of armored vehicles and soldiers with real fully automatic assault rifles tends to put a damper on rioting. China is another spot we did not mention. Currently China has a dangerous overpopulation of young unmarried males and a severe shortage of women. They could partially alleviate the problem through being simply selective at their border with North Korea and allow women through, especially younger women. North Korea will not be a problem as China realizes that should North Korea actually carry through on any of Kim Jong Un’s nuclear threats that China would receive a fair amount of spillover if not being actually struck for not curbing their rabid neighbor. Asia will remain rather passive with the sole possible problem being Pakistan and India, which would go no further than Pakistan and the northern two thirds of India. World War III may come to movie theaters and end up on Netflix for a while then cable and finally we’ll watch it on commercial television, so please when such a movie comes out, don’t tell us how it ends. The last World War III movie we saw, which was almost as good as the book, was On the Beach (the original) which has a remake which we have not seen. Let’s hope that the movie is not blocked by MGM as it is in Israel. As long as World War III remains a theme for science fiction or horror movies such as Godzilla, the nth remake, then we will be quite pleased. Should World War III catch us all unprepared, we attempt to post our reaction and surprise for as long as possible.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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July 24, 2018

War of Words Escalating Between Iran and America

 

We wish to first cover the story of the IDF rescue of the eight-hundred White Helmets (Syrian civil organization of emergency responders) and their families from southern Syria war zone. Coverage by Arutz Sheva with a short video can be viewed here. This operation was carried out by Israel in response to pleas from President Trump, Canada and other European countries. One can only wonder how long before the same Europeans claim that Israel is not a nice nation as is their usual.

 

United States President Trump and Iranian President Rouhani have been exchanging verbal threats with President Trump adding in a social media Tweet just for good measure (see image below). President Trump even went so far as to use “caps lock” just for emphasis. President Rouhani promised in his retort to something President Trump stated which he found upsetting, that, “Peace with Iran would be the mother of all peace and war with Iran would be the mother of all wars.” We seem to remember a neighboring country’s ruler promising an American President the “Mother of all Wars” once before and that did not end all too well for Saddam Hussein. The reality is that Iran very well could be speaking from a position of relative strength unlike Saddam Hussein. We thought we would play with some thoughts, fears, and potential realities which should be taken into consideration and all intelligence gone through with a fine tooth-comb before stepping into the void.

 

President Trump Warning Tweet to Iranian President Rouhani

President Trump Warning Tweet to Iranian President Rouhani

 

Iranian President Rouhani could have the ability to back up much of his threat with very real actions. Iran has been researching nuclear weaponry in various forms since the late 1980’s or, at best, the early 1990’s including specific research into EMP devices and miniaturized warheads. For argument’s sake, we will pretend that Iran had no real urgency about their research, something of which we actually believe they likely had a great deal, and their research proceeded at a leisurely pace. The Manhattan Project started in 1942 and developed the atomic bomb within three years and the United States tested their first hydrogen bomb, a thermonuclear bomb, within ten years of the start of the Manhattan Project. The United States had to start from scratch while the Iranians had knowledge on the architecture for both atomic and thermonuclear devices almost from the start. Their main difficulty was the processing or manufacturing of sufficient Uranium-235 or Plutonium-239 for the core of their devices. One item which is well known to those who have been paying attention to Iran is that they have been developing more and more advanced centrifuges capable of separating out enriched Uranium-235 at a fairly well advanced pace. Further, it can be assumed that their cooperation with North Korea has permitted them to test at least one or two devices over the years if not numerous more. They also would probably have exchanged information back and forth both on nuclear weaponry and guided missile technology which explains both nations’ fairly rapid advancement in both areas. Lastly, as the Chinese very likely had stolen or otherwise received the complete schematics and machining and design specifications for the United States W-88 warhead, it can be assumed that both North Korea and Iran have had access to that same information, though one could hope such is not the case. We are attempting to avoid using hope as our main argument in this instance.

 

So, it is painfully obvious that by the year 2000 Iran would easily have built sufficient processing facilities to produce the fissile and fusion elements for the production of thermonuclear warheads and the sole question is how many devices might they have produced. This is where estimates have been all over the board. According to sources reported and quoted by the Times of Israel, “Tehran has crossed all points of no return and already has its first nuclear weapon, and maybe more.” The same article also reports that the IAEA has assured the world that Iran in no way could have conceivably developed and built a nuclear bomb. We recall that the IAEA are the same people who claimed Saddam Hussein was not working on nuclear weapons, that Syria had no nuclear weapon dreams, that Libya had no nuclear program and that North Korea was years from being able to produce a nuclear weapon days before their first nuclear test. The IAEA has not been the most reliable source on nuclear proliferation as they are presumed to be preventing it and have decided that if they see no evil and hear no evil then they are able to speak no evil. Below we have included an artist’s rendition of two IAEA inspectors and one spokesperson. The evidence is that should Iran have desired to construct nuclear weapons, then the only question remaining is exactly how many of them have they produced, what are their projected yields and how distant can their missiles deliver them. These are serious questions which deserve answers which should be made known to the world through the United Nations or by the nation who knows the reality making the knowledge more generally known. This means if the CIA has solid evidence proving that Iran has nuclear tipped missiles, they should be producing such evidence for the world to see and reveal the perfidy of the Iranian claims of innocence and having no desire to become a nuclear-armed nation.

 

Three monkeys of “See no evil, Hear no evil, Speak no evil”

Three monkeys of “See no evil, Hear no evil, Speak no evil”

 

As things currently stand, it would be more prudent to assume that Iran has nuclear tipped missiles in the ready and that these missiles are capable of striking anywhere on the planet. It should also be assumed that they would have such shorter-range missiles stored within what appear to be normative cargo vessels as they have developed such vessels to use to strike at cities along the shores of the United States and Europe should hostilities become to their advantage. These missiles would be extremely difficult to intercept, as their targets would be struck within minutes of the missile launching, as the ship would be only one-hundred miles offshore or closer. Iran has tested these systems finding them to be accurate and an efficient and difficult to deter system for delivering a warhead. The cargo ships they would utilize would more than likely be registered with a country other than Iran making them all but invisible unless the warhead could be detected. Iran is also rumored to have developed a non-nuclear EMP device which is capable of destroying the electrical grid for a city and surrounding region depending on the level of hardening the electrical grid has had installed. One can pretty much expect that at least the streetlights and traffic signals would be affected and stop functioning for a period of time. The real problem is if transformers are destroyed and the larger the transformer, the more serious the outage. The largest transformers can take up to two years to produce in sufficient numbers should an entire grid region be destroyed.

 

The truth is that both President Trump and President Rouhani are playing with fire and their bellicose threats can escalate potentially leading to one or the other taking the decision that the insults have reached a level beyond that which they are willing to accept and in order to save face they must act. This could lead to problems and further escalations which could end further than desired from the starting point. The Iranians including Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari has promised that should the United States prevent Iranian oil sales, they will prevent all oil from traversing the Straights of Hormuz. According to Xinhua, Jafari stressed, enemies can understand the meaning of Hormuz Strait “either for all, or for none.” The United States has promised that they will protect the use of the Straights of Hormuz for the oil shipments of both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, so should President Trump prevent Iranian oil shipments and Iran act on their threat, there would necessarily be a confrontation. Iran today is not the same Iran which fought Saddam Hussein during the 1980’s. They have more potential and are well practiced at their swarming tactics which create a great deal of difficulty against which to defend. Any naval confrontation within the Arabian Gulf and especially the Straights of Hormuz would also include Iranian shore batteries which would take time, short as it may be, to render inoperative which would also be seen as a further escalation. One can readily see how any confrontation over the free movement of oil in and out of the Straights of Hormuz could very quickly spin out of control. One can only guess as to how the United States would react should one of their nuclear aircraft carriers be attacked and actually sunk. Such would lead to reprisals which would provoke reprisals in return and back and forth until something inevitable and regrettable resulted. Wars have started over far less; take World War I for example. How many people died over a single terrorist act murdering Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophie the Duchess of Hohenberg. So, now we are at the point of which leaders lower their level of vitriol, and let us pray one of them sees the wisdom in doing exactly that.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 10, 2018

Preview of Middle East Coming Attractions

 

We open our fictional projection somewhere in the not too distant future with the Mullahs in Iran officially announcing their entrance into the nuclear age and as a full-fledged member of atomic weapons club. They went further with actions to showcase their accomplishments with two detonations. The first detonation was a test in a deep bunkered test facility which they had dug in the southwestern desert region which measures approximately twenty-five kilo-tons. Reactions referred to this blast as being a Hiroshima type atomic weapon and minimized the threat. This reaction was corrected early the next morning when an above ground test was conducted where the Iranians has launched a missile from eastern Iran towards northern Syria near the border with Turkey. This missile struck its target, a Kurdish strongpoint where they were dug in against the Turkish forces. This weapon was a thermonuclear device and was approximated to have been in the twenty to twenty-five megaton yield and was sufficient to complete obliterate the small Kurdish stronghold and the entirety of the city. This has drawn responses from the European signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) filled with ire blaming President Trump for the failure of the agreement solely because he pulled the United States support for the deal. The French, German, British, European Union and United Nations all condemned these events laying all the blame at the front door of the White House in Washington D.C.

 

The new American President, sworn in just hours before these tests were carried out, stood steadfast that the United States was not in approval of the Iranian use of a nuclear device against the Kurdish population and the resultant killing of tens of thousands of civilians. The Iranian Supreme Leader blamed their need to use the weapon on the United States arming the Kurdish forces leading to the stand-off in northern Syria. Also, in reaction to these events, Israel has mobilized half of the IDF reservists and placed the military on an emergency stand-by mode where all reserves are required to carry a phone or be near to a phone with which they could receive any call-ups which may be deemed necessary. The Israeli Knesset called an emergency meeting for this afternoon and the Prime Minister’s emergency cabinet is meeting this morning. The newly crowned King of Saudi Arabia announced his nation’s intention to process uranium and build nuclear weapons as a response to the Iranian threat. Pakistan announced that they had already honored their commitment to Saudi Arabia which they made when the Saudis financed the Pakistani nuclear research and production of their atomic weapons they felt the need to produce in response to India going nuclear. Informed sources tell that Pakistan released six planes which have already landed in three separate Saudi Air Bases each craft carrying two compatible warheads which will fit atop the existing Saudi missiles. Each of the Pakistani devices can be programmed to produce yields from ten to twenty-five megatons. These weapons are being considered a gift from Pakistan and they claim they are now paid in full to the Saudis.

 

The above is a fabrication of what the Middle East could soon have as its appearance. The major situation at that point would be an Iranian-Saudi exchange with Iran figuring their losses would be minimal compared to waiting and having the Saudi produce hundreds of weapons. Nobody would know exactly how many warheads the Iranians would have produced because of the fact that Iran has uranium mines with which to provide their own raw materials for nuclear warhead production (see map below). Iran also has the reactors from which they can produce additional types of weapons fuels. The problem is it is also such a scenario which could become reality next year, next month, next week, later today. This is the reality with which we live with the exception of the Iranians testing their weapon themselves. The Iranian scientists and engineers have been on-board at every nuclear test conducted by North Korea and some have surmised that at least two of these tests were of Iranian design being tested by North Korea as part of their cooperation in nuclear weapons and missile systems. Anyone believing that anything stands between the Iranians building a thermonuclear warhead should immediately disabuse themselves of such thinking. Iran not only had the plans but has probably found the means of either smuggling in the required electronic devices or building them in Iran. The world leaders should not be talking about how to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons and start thinking of how they might contain an already nuclear armed Iran, as that is a far more likely current reality than the lollipop hallucinatory views taken by the Europeans Union, European nations and United Nations. It is far more likely that Iran has fifty to one-hundred thermonuclear devices than it is they do not even have their design for a weapon already completed.

 

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines

 

The world will go on thinking what they want to believe is true and dictatorial regimes with delusions of reestablishing their empires of old and dominating the world scene once again will continue to arm themselves to their teeth and when the real shooting starts, once again Europe will be caught unprepared. The problem is that this time unprepared will equal dead and conquered with many major cities having been turned into smoldering nuclear wastelands uninhabitable for the next twenty to ten-thousand years. The other reality is that the next major war will yield results by the end of two days and the war will be largely over after two days. Whatever nation starts the next conflagration will not survive the first day and will receive a doubling down the second day just for good measure. The countries initially targeted will be in one of two states. Those without adequate anti-missile technology will be the greatest losers with however many missiles sent targeting them will very likely strike their targets. The United States nuclear umbrella is largely a promise to provide a return strike on the culpable nation and not an anti-missile shield. The United States is not adequately protected from the track of Iranian missiles and would have to rely on strategically placed naval assets. Congress has not seen it necessary even to discuss closing the southern gap in the old Soviet Union and Chinese defensive grid which NORAD commands. Those anti-missile defenses are barely functional to intercept many of today’s Russian and Chinese fourth generation missiles and warheads. Add to this the southern gap which reaches in an arc from just north of Los Angeles across the entire southern United States and up the other coast to the central region of the Carolina’s (see map below). These systems protect Canada quite adequately but rely on less proven systems for detection of incoming missiles to cover the southern exposures. This was why both North Korea and Iran have practiced launching polar orbiting spacecraft which approach the United States from the south on numerous passes each day. The Chinese and Russians realized this weakness and had determined the launch angles. It is uncertain which power gave this information to North Korea or Iran.

 

Existing NORAD and Coastal RADAR Shows Southern Open Region Reliant on Over-the-Horizon Systems which Detect Aircraft and Cruise Missiles Better than ICBMs

Existing NORAD and Coastal RADAR Shows Southern Open Region
Reliant on Over-the-Horizon Systems which
Detect Aircraft and Cruise Missiles Better than ICBMs

 

There is one nation which is fairly well prepared if for no other reason than the absolute need and a constant state of threat facing her daily. That nation, of course, is Israel. Israel has developed a multi-stage intercept system where four separate systems each perform in their set range parameters providing maximal coverage. Also, Israel is not a United States, being merely the size of New Jersey, thus Israel can cover all her borders equally as every system can intercept missiles from all directions. Intercept systems placed in the northern Negev cover every border just as well as a system placed just east of Ben Gurion International Airport. The only system requiring strategic placement is the Iron Dome which is not designed for interception of ballistic missiles but for shorter range rockets and missiles and having a very short acquisition time. Still, even the vaunted Iron Dome which has proven its effectiveness with close to a 90% intercept rate when including not firing at systems determined not to be striking vital civilian areas and most likely to strike an open field. Not firing when unnecessary is an important feature as each missile interceptor costs approximately fifty-thousand dollars and are used against fifty dollar rockets. Of course, if it is your house and children who are saved by the Iron Dome, then we all agree that it is well worth the costs. But Israel has a layered series of longer ranged interceptors which include but are not limited to Arrow Systems I, II, and III as well as David’s Sling. Other systems are in the works and remain classified, as do some of the newest deployed systems still being tested. These make sleeping at night much easier. Still, the best deterrence against Iran using nuclear weapons as a threat or in actuality would be regime change and the installing of democratic based governance, the exact system the multitude of demonstrators are hoping they will be granted the opportunity to put in place and work from there. This is something which we might speak of when its coming to fruition is more likely as currently, with the Mullahs possessing all the firearms and the military still supporting them, the demonstrators have little chance for success. At best, they could end up facing a fate similar to that in which Syria is suffering with the Mullahs on one side, MEK (Mujahedeen Khalq) on the other, and the people with hopes separate from both caught in the middle. That would not be helpful or desirable. There would be little difference between the current regime in Iran and any system put in place by the MEK terrorists, as both are simply different forms of radical Islam. The Iranian people desire an opportunity to choose their leaders and have a constitution with a nation operating under laws, not men, and all deserve a system such as this and all too few are permitted to keep such.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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