Beyond the Cusp

June 3, 2017

A Detail from Yesterday About Kim Jong-un is Troubling

 

Yesterday we reported in our article about a preliminary analysis of Kim Jong-un’s personality by Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics. In it, the study revealed him to apparently be agreeable, acquiescent, charming, placing a high premium on external approval, sympathetic to others’ needs and socially gregarious on the plus side. Then there are the lesser traits resulting in an assessment that he is relinquishing too much authority, failing to assert himself sufficiently, delegating too much responsibility, as well as showing hesitation in taking the initiative when circumstances demand boldness or daring. As we noted, this would make him a potentially easy target for manipulation. This, we feel, needs a little more investigation and we will try our best to give a counting for what is a potential reality explaining the difference between the profile and the international reputation which Kim Jong-un’s actions have produced; certainly, the threatening and bragging attributed to Kim Jong-un in the media.

 

Initially, we have to believe the personality profile is authentic as a given and work from there. We know that Kim Jong-un was supposedly responsible for the execution of a general by firing squad and the murder of his uncle and arranged the assassination of his half-brother. All of these deaths presumed to be ordered by Kim Jong-un would be completely contrary to his personality profile. On the other hand, they would easily be explainable if he is being manipulated by a close advisor or a group from the North Korean military high establishment. If a group of generals has taken control of running North Korea, there is a definitive probability that at least one general was loyal to the royal family, would oppose them, and may have attempted to extricate Kim Jong-un from whatever pressure or situation he currently faces. This would likely have come to the knowledge of the remainder of the generals who support those now running the country and thus the rogue general trying to grant Kim Jong-un back his lost power would easily be found guilty of treason, the charge for which he was shot (or possibly hung, memory is uncertain but only his death matters). The uncle would also be a logical person as well as the half-brother thus leaving only Kim Jong-un left in the line of succession. If one or a group from the military or elsewhere are controlling Kim Jong-un, they now have left their pawn as the only person left of his family line left to rule North Korea and thus secured their control for the immediate future and potentially well beyond. It is very possible that if the military are behind controlling Kim Jong-un, they may have decided that he was unworthy and lacked the necessary strength and sense of urgency required to face the world and satisfy the needs and necessities of the nation. This is a coup by some other name.

 

The nuclear testing periodically, just enough to upset other leaders and be noticed but not quite enough to start a war immediately, along with their more aggressive testing of varying missiles with just sufficient capability to make the western leaders nervous and suspecting that North Korea has or is on the verge of developing ICBMs, leaves only the question of whether they would be multi-staged or single-stage, the latter being far more reliable and accurate. It is the ICBMs which have the west most worried as anything less is far lesser a threat and the current thinking is the only target that North Korea can strike would be Hawaii, which would be too much like a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, a mistake anybody would be ill advised to repeat. Still, the current threat is that North Korea is setting up to conduct another nuclear test and the recent increased rate of missile tests, including one fired well into the Pacific Ocean is leading to suspicions that the missile may have been the long sought North Korean ICBM. This truth may be the reality which President Trump may have been advised of through the Joint Chiefs of Staff having been advised by Military Intelligence or by the Central Intelligence Agency. That could be the reasoning behind the unprecedented show of strength by the United States as it is highly unlikely that President Trump would be devoting thirty percent of Americas supercarriers, the Carl Vinson (CVN-70) followed by the Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) and lastly the Nimitz (CVN-68), simply as means of calling Kim Jong-un’s bluff. Hopefully the military and intelligence geniuses behind advising President Trump, and hopefully there are advisors from either the military, intelligence or both and the President is not flying solo, and they know the risks and understand who they are facing off against. We really hope they know whether those running North Korea are a group of generals or others manipulating and controlling Kim Jong-un or actually Kim Jong-un himself.

 

The truth is that these supercarriers never travel alone and with three heading for the neighborhood of North Korea, there are going to be a large number of naval vessels and the supercarriers also have their specialty, a large contingent of modern aircraft which are what make these strike groups so capable and dangerous. The average contingent of aircraft aboard these supercarriers are twelve F/A-18E/F Hornets, thirty-six F/A-18 Hornets, four E-2C Hawkeyes, and four EA-6B Prowlers as well as a small number of helicopters which fly mostly close area defense. Multiply this by three and you have more airpower than some European nations have in their entire Air Force. For a feel as to what a supercarrier strike group would look like, simply view the picture of one sailing below. That is an awful lot of firepower and with the carrier, it is also a force that can reach far from its location and strike hard at any target. There are going to be at least three times this many ships sitting off the coast of North Korea somewhere just west of Japan. Now the question is what follows and what will North Korea do next.

 

Carrier Strike Group

Carrier Strike Group

 

The one thing which just might become known is who is really ruling in North Korea. Whether it will be Kim Jong-un, a group of generals or some group of politicians, sooner or later, they will show their hand. Kim Jong-un will, at some point, become more of a burden than he is worth and then he will be a liability. The one thing you never want to be in the game of power politics is a liability. Having Kim Jong-un play a part cannot be an easy path for ruling the nation and eventually the myth of the supremacy of the Kim family has to wain, and when it does, Kim Jong-un becomes useless and if there are people behind the scenes manipulating him, they will need to show their hand. In a way, we may end up hoping that Kim Jong-un is as insane as he appears and crazed with power as that might be more advantageous than a set of scheming generals or political operatives. Then again, maybe cold rational power hungry entities might be more predictable than Kim Jong-un. Whatever the truth ends up being, we just hope that somehow this all ends without any need to use the military power of either side. What would be the best is for North Korea to find some means of giving the people some degree of freedom, liberty and political power so that their nation can join the rest of the world and their country start to have a normative economy and relations with the rest of the world. This threatening to fire missiles and destroy other nations if certain demands are not met can only eventually end in disaster for all involved. Disaster in any form is something to be avoided.

 

Beyond the Cusp
.

June 2, 2017

Where Will the Spiraling End?

 

The United States new President, Donald Trump, apparently is not reacting to the threats from North Korea in the routine and usual manner, giving in and sending money, food and meet whatever demands are made by the current psychotic leader of that Communist death trap claims must be met or else he will destroy the world starting with South Korea and moving on to Japan and finally the United States. The past administrations have all responded with the goods every time the North Korean leader has rattle sabers making foul sounding threats if his little realm had used all the treasure from the previous confrontation has reached its end. This was the routine which wound itself repeatedly over time. Apparently, this time may end differently. First, China has called an end to their calling their attack-dog to heel and desist or even make an effort which also was a change in the normal routine. Everything appears as if the forces who might make a difference and avoid the most horrific of results has decided that they prefer to stand aside and see what the mettle of the new President is made of. The Chinese are preparing to sit this little game out and watch from the sidelines after making the feeblest of attempts to calm their friend to their south and instead allowed him to continue bellowing his threats. It appears that China is not receiving the reaction they expected as it was likely their impression that President Trump was not versed in the game of brinkmanship and would simply fold and give in to the threats from Kim Jong-un and provide North Korea with a renewed treasury, feed their starving masses and walk away simply licking his wounds and broken ego, tarnished reputation.

 

Apparently President Trump does not respond well to threats from a proven madman, a leader who has murdered a general for contradicting him, executed his uncle simply because he thought him a threat to his leadership and ordered the assassination of his half-brother in a foreign country so there could be no successor to his leadership other than whomever he should designate. President Trump initially sent the aircraft carrier fleet with the USS Carl Vinson and Kim Jong-un simply continued his ranting and threats. Then President Trump sent the aircraft carrier fleet with the USS Ronald Reagan and Kim Jong-un simply continued his ranting and threats. Now President Trump has further upped the anti and sent the aircraft carrier fleet with the USS Nimitz. We are willing to bet that Kim Jong-un could not care less and might even react unkindly or he might respond with more missile tests and possibly even a full-blown nuclear test. This situation, to put it mildly, is rapidly spiraling and where it might end is simply terrifying to imagine.

 

Kin Jong-un (김정은) is the grandson of Kim Il-Sung (김일성), the founder of North Korea; the son of Kim Jong-il (김정일), the second leader of North Korea, and is the current leader of North Korea, obviously. His threats are not to be taken so lightly as to make it appear that he is being taken lightly, something this ever-escalating response could impart. Seoul, South Korea, the national capital city is the first place threatened to be destroyed by Kim Jong-un, a threat he could carry out in under fifteen minutes from making the decision. North Korea has approximately 13,000 artillery pieces positioned along the border which could be fired striking Seoul leveling most of the capital city. Making matters even more troubling is the report by the Federation of American Scientists telling of the North Korean known quantities of anthrax, mustard gas, sarin, botulism and phosgene. Such weapons placed in artillery shells designed to release poison gas would not only permit Kim Jong-un to all but flatten Seoul, but to guarantee his artillery fire murdered most of the over ten-million people living within the city. That would be the opening scenario of Kin Jong-un deciding to raise President Trump’s move of positioning three aircraft carrier groups within striking distance of North Korea.

 

The Kim Family

 

The problem in this situation is that President Trump may have stated that all options are on the table, but this does not mean, as some in the media have claimed, that he is out looking for a fight, that he wants a war to prove something. The hope has to be on settling this problem, this saber rattling, with the least amount of violence and a lowering of the threat options. Unfortunately, this is apparently not going to be an option which either side is wishing to utilize, opting instead to raise the stakes, or at least the consequences, should the other side opt to initiate violence first. This is the idea behind placing so much power within the theater surrounding North Korea. This hopefully is the idea behind President Trump placing sufficient firepower within range of North Korea thus making any threats for use of force by Kim Jong-un suicidal at best and foolhardy at the least. The problem is that Kim Jong-un has all the classical signs of numerous psychological disorders one of which is obviously paranoia. A preliminary analysis of Kim Jong-un’s personality by Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics reveals him to apparently be agreeable, acquiescent, charming, placing a high premium on external approval, sympathetic to others’ needs and socially gregarious on the plus side along with a few other lesser traits resulting in an assessment that he is relinquishing too much authority, failing to assert himself sufficiently, delegating too much responsibility, as well as showing hesitation in taking the initiative when circumstances demand boldness or daring. As they say next, just who is really in charge and pulling the strings presumably controlling Kim Jong-un from the background.

 

North Korean Artillery Display

North Korean Artillery Display

 

Should this personality inventory be accurate, then there is an even greater danger in the threats emanating from North Korea, the person making them is hiding behind a figurehead which they are taking the precaution of making appear pompous and unpredictable. Hiding behind this figurehead making threats may make such a figure so assured of their safety from acting in the shadows that they might take chances believing that boldness would force President Trump to weaken and possibly fold or meet their demands with a simple promise from China that they have received assurances that if a basic set of demands were met by the west that North Korea would end their missile tests and enter negotiations over their nuclear program. Then it would be up to President Trump to react to such an offer. The main risk is that should they send a warning shot such as trading artillery fire as happened and reported in the New York Times on August 20, 2015 when the two nations still technically at war exchanged rocket and artillery fire in the first major armed clash across their border in five years. This was an exchange which reportedly resulted in no casualties and was a show of intent and test of wills and response. North Korea has taken an offensive stance with threatening with missile tests into the Pacific Ocean when testing potential ICBMs, shorter-range ballistic missiles towards the Sea of Japan to threaten Japan and claiming to be ready to test a new and more powerful nuclear weapon. The threat to Japan has been sufficient that the parliament has been deliberating to revise the Japanese stance since the end of World War II and enlarge their navy and other military strength beyond simple island protection in response to threats perceived from both North Korea and China.

 

China is another reason that President Trump may be placing so much naval and air power into the west Pacific Ocean near both China and North Korea. China has been extending claims challenging Islands claimed by Japan, Viet Nam, Taiwan and the Philippines. These challenges are in addition to their building islands in the South China Sea moving towards the East China Sea and militarizing many of these islands even to the point of placing airstrips on the larger of these water-bound embankments. This challenges one of the most heavily traversed sea-lanes in the world which handles close to one third of the sea trade making it as important as the Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz which controls the world’s oil flow from the Middle East, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait which controls the southern exit from the Red Sea into the Arabian Sea. Both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (see map below), through their control of Yemen using the Houthis Rebels, are currently under threat of control from Iran, an ally of North Korea, allowing the two to exchange information and technology regarding missiles and nuclear weapons as they share a common enemy, the United States and the Western world. Iran is also allied with Russia as well as China which makes for a real threat in response to the presumed former sole super-power, the United States. The power of the United States is formidable but would face a serious challenge from the combined strength and nuclear power of the combined forces of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. The real question could at some point become are Iran and/or North Korea really worth facing down the United States for either China or Russia, especially with a presumed unknown in President Trump whose most powerful weapon might be his reputation of being a bit of a hot-head.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

Still, one can be assured that President Trump would be best served and likely prefer some assistance from China defusing the current situation with North Korea. What is troubling is if the situation is as the personality profile of Kin Jong-un is accurate and he really is just a puppet being worked by a rogue general or party official working from the presumed safety of anonymity, then President Trump and his advisers plus those in the Pentagon all actually are operating blind as they do not know who they are working against. It is difficult to find a solution if you have no real clue who is the operator on the other side. Kim Jong-un either completely baffled those trying to inventory his personality or is just as unstable as he appears or somebody finds it advantageous to make the ruler of North Korea appear unstable. All of this leads one to really feel that North Korea is, and will continue for the time being, one threat which is front and center. But if that does not frighten you, then keep in mind that standing right alongside them is Iran that has spread terror armies throughout the world and thought to have more operatives living under cover inside the United States simply waiting for the code for them to strike a predetermined target or even instructions of where to strike. They have a training center in South America in an area known as the Tri-Border Area which sits at the borders of Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil. And you thought that you could sleep comfortably tonight. Well, probably for tonight, but for how many more nights is the big question.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 29, 2017

A Look at the World’s Potential Hotspots

 

There are a number of places in the world which are potential eruption points outside of what the American media would have you believe. President Trump does not even rate a mention in the top few hotspots with a potential for great harm. Some of the places are more of a danger to their own people than they are to the world and others should be center of the rest of the world’s concerns before they explode onto the world scene forcing a response twice has hard, as that is what will be required almost as punishment for allowing these threats to materialize. So, let us look around the world and we can even make some happy and begin with the White House.

 

President Donald Trump in a Moment of Grimace

President Donald Trump in a Moment of Grimace

 

President Trump’s largest threat is to self-injury often through Tweets. He could be the first President to be Tweeted from office though if that will be his fate it will be done via the 2020 elections. The main challenge that President Trump would face if things continue on their current path would be from the primary challengers which are all but certain to come fast and furious from the elite mainstays of the Republican studless elites. One leader of these milquetoast candidates is Arizona Senator John McCain who has been double-guessing President Trump at every turn and fighting against his every suggested legislative order. There will be others whose names will become well known between now and then and another likely candidate might be former Governor of Ohio John Kasich, also one of the last men standing against Trump in the last primaries. There will also be the perennial also-rans who will toss in their hats as one never knows, if Trump could win, why not everybody else? You know the names, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul, Jeb Bush (unless his shellacking he took has cowed him permanently) and Marco Rubio all claiming they wish to give the Republican Party a real candidate and save the party from ruin from another Trump candidacy. Yes, many in the Republican Party are just as unimpressed with Donald Trump and desire to have a more conventional candidate whom they can control. If the primaries and the few actual real and accurate polls are any indicator, the people are quite impressed with The Donald and despite his eccentricities, they love the fits he is giving the entirety of the political elites and their machinery which they use to drive their chosen agendas. The people are done with these agendas which are the same with the big difference being the speed with which the government is driving towards utter destruction. Donald Trump may be just the President the nation needs despite all the fuss and bother. Yes, a more controlled and sane person who was less out of their mind might be preferable but then it may be just what we are looking for, one eccentric loonie-toon who Tweets too much too often who knows none of the limits any normal person might understand and be withheld by, and who sees a new world where governments take a back seat to a people-business partnership.

 

From Washington D.C. we move south about one continent worth and slightly east to Caracas, Venezuela, where we find the end result of the experiment in what was called the socialist utopia where actors, athletes and other elitists and multi-millionaires or even billionaires habituating the leftmost fringes of the political spectrum went to celebrate the wonderful socialist world being presided over by President Hugo Rafael Chávez. President Chávez would make regular pilgrimages to Castro’s Cuba in deference to the father of socialist utopias. Democratic leaders who believed that Hugo Chávez was the miracle worker who had finally perfected socialism and established that dream they had all claimed had been waiting for just the person who would unwrap the socialist utopian society puzzle they had worked towards all their lives. Hugo Chávez had, according to the great minds from academia to sports to finance on to every field in imagination, established that dream and now if only the world would acknowledge and follow his example. Today Venezuela is one of the most dangerous places to live in the world. The government is gunning down peaceful protesters in the streets. Cuba, the ones who employed Ernesto ‘Che’ Guevara at his favorite pastime, murdering innocents, has sent their current best troops of what could be called their Che Division to Venezuela to assist Hugo Chávez’s successor, current Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro, with keeping the public order. This includes the aforementioned shooting peaceful demonstrators who are clamoring for food, necessary medicine and numerous others of life’s necessities which they are unable to find in the store’s empty shelves. Large percentages of the population in Venezuela are left to seeking food in dumpsters and the black market for necessary medicines including such as insulin for diabetics, heart medication and other such basic medicines. Venezuela is the perfect example of where socialist governance will eventually result as proven by the Soviet Union, North Korea and now Venezuela. But this will not lead to any of the proponents of seeking the perfect utopian socialist governance and installing it in whatever nation they get the opportunity. Socialism seems as if it is an infection which once contracted can never be cured and leads its victim to seek the ruin of their society in the lusting for that socialist utopia which has failed every single time it has ever been tried, but they refuse to see previous failures as anything other than one more attempt that was not perfected this time and if only they are allowed to try, it will work, they promise.

 

Our next stop is almost halfway across the globe in Asia. We arrive in North Korea where dear leader Kim Jong Un rules absolutely. He lives a lavish lifestyle borderline in comparison to that of Marie Antoinette. The difference is in North Korea Kim Jong Un decides whose head was lopped off instead of Marie Antoinette whose head was sacrificed in the French Revolution. Kim Jong Un decided his uncle was a threat, so he was removed from the population. One of his generals also irked him, so he too was removed from the population. His half brother did nothing except be perceived as a threat to his position, so he also was removed, but from the world’s population. Who knows how many others within the dark nation from which little news escapes and even less is permitted entrance has disappeared. All we know is of late Kim Jong Un has been rattling sabers and acting far less sane than his father or grandfather. Each of his predecessors would act unstable when they desired aid, often food for their starving citizens. But Kim Jong Un acts as insane as either at their height of provocation as his normal daily routine. Kin Jong Un is as unstable as any leader throughout history, even further deranged than Nero or Caligula were during Roman times. Even those closest to him tread very lightly as close proximity to Kim Jong Un does not make one safe, it is more likely to be a threat to one’s life and would require extra caution and, to a degree, one to seek anonymity to avoid notice or to be chosen by Kim Jong Un for special attention and note. Making Kim Jong Un even more dangerous of a threat to the world are his nuclear weapons program and his advancing rocket capabilities. Kim Jong Un has ballistic missiles, come very close to launching an ICBM, and is even closer to a reliable continental ballistic missile. Add to this his nuclear weapons which many believe are designed not for explosive yield but for maximizing its EMP pulse strength which can be used to knock out the electricity to an entire continent as well as destroying virtually all electronic equipment within a sizeable range. North Korea under Kim Jong Un is considered a danger of starting a nuclear war by destroying the power grid in most of North America and bringing the United States to its knees with much of its infrastructure useless and the military paralyzed. But there is more as North Korea has an equally troubling ally in Iran.

 

Iran is a theocracy with a leader who has more titles than one can throw a stick at. He can be referred to as Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Absolute Guardianship and the Leadership of the Ummah, Supreme Leader of Iran and Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei. No matter who fills other positions such as President or the Parliament are actually relatively powerless in comparison of the religious ruling structure which includes the true power of the Assembly of Experts, a body of Imams. These are the people who choose the Supreme Leader and Grand Ayatollah, the only power with significance above even the Assembly of Experts once they have been chosen. Iran has consistently experimented and developed numerous varieties of ballistic missiles from middle range to continental ballistic missiles and they are working on the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles. Their development has mirrored that of North Korea which is understandable as the two often are found observing one another’s testing of missiles. The frightening reality has been the consistency with which Iranian technicians, nuclear scientists and explosive experts attending nuclear testing in North Korea. This has forced some to claim that some of the testing performed by North Korea of nuclear weapons has been performed for Iran and testing of Missiles in Iran were performed for North Korea. The two imperialist nations are cooperating and both have launched satellites which used polar orbits such that they passed over the United States from the south over Texas and the central United States, a route the USSR had investigated and found to be the soft point in the defenses of the United States. An unsettling truth is that the North Koreans have a satellite using that exact orbit which passes over the central United States on a regular basis and this satellite has no discernable utility and there are some who suspect it has a nuclear EMP device which could be detonated at any point in its orbit after ordering it to lower its orbit to three to five hundred miles where it would be within the optimum altitude for maximum destruction of the American electrical grid and military operational capability. Both North Korea and Iran place the United States as their greatest enemy and one of, if not their number one, target in all of the world. Iran also lists Israel as a nation they will destroy in a single hour or less some day in the not too distant future. Iran holds regular demonstrations every Friday where the people chant “Death to America,” and “Death to Israel.” These are their two propaganda ploys to fulfill the imaginations of the people and the targets Iran claims will prove their supreme power and their approval from Allah and as the sign that they are to lead the Islamic world to their final conquest of the world.

 

Iran and Russia are cooperating, if not cooperating directly, with another hotspot where warfare has been raging for more than five years. This is Syria where the majorities of the nation’s population is homeless and have been targeted by at least one of the numerous forces in the war including their own government. One of the main threats to many of the civilians is their own government where Bashir al-Assad, Syria’s President for life, has targeted those of his population he regards as not sufficiently supportive of his government which has included the Kurds, Palestinian Arabs in refugee camps, and many of the non-Alawite population of what was previously Syria. Assad had bombed virtually every area of Syria which is not part of his power structure with possibly one exception, the Druze whose mountain regions have been spared much of the tragic results in the rest of Syria. The Islamic State was started in Syria as a response to Assad, his Alawite supporters because of their Shiite aligned version of Islam, and their being allies with Iran, the leader of the Shiite Muslims. Syria is the final piece which the Iranians need in order to use their acquiring of southern Iraq which is also Shiite and the home of the government of Iraq. The Islamic State has taken some of their fighters from amongst both Syrian and Iraqi Sunni Muslims desiring to fight against the Shiite Iranians, Iraqis and Syrians who are attempting to complete a Shiite crescent from Iran on the Indian Ocean to Lebanon and Syria along the Mediterranean Sea. Another group fighting alongside the Iranian and Syrian Shiites has been Hezballah, the terrorist group which rules Lebanon through a proxy government and have become the Lebanese Army though they attempt to portray the two as separate. Hezballah is also the Iranian proxy force which they would use to be their initial strike upon Israel such that they could claim to be responding to a Lebanese request for assistance against Israeli aggression. This is one of the interesting themes which often permeate Islamic tacticians where they will attack an enemy and when the enemy responds to the attack, they immediately claim that they were attacked without any provocation and thus they then demand that their victim be punished for what was actually self-defense to the attack from the instigator. This has been the tactics of Hezballah with their previous two wars and numerous skirmishes with Israel as well as the next hotspot, Gaza and Hamas.

 

This is the desired and long sought Iranian Shiite Crescent across the Middle East reaching from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea after Islamic State Defeat and Iran Surge Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad with Hezballah retaining their iron-fist control over Lebanon and the Iraqi Shiites retaining their hold on the southern half of Iraq. This could very well be the starting positions for a final World War resulting in exchanges of nuclear weapons before the end is reached. This map also depicts the areas bordering the Iranian influence which could become the future red lines and the trip wire for a horrific conflagration, exactly what the Twelvers desire to bring back the Twelfth Imam and the Islamic Messiah who will lead them to finally realize their destiny of world conquest. Despite what many in the West view as an outdated and dead idea, the Iranian leadership dreams of world conquest and desire to that end.

This is the desired and long sought Iranian Shiite Crescent across the Middle East reaching from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea after Islamic State Defeat and Iran Surge Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad with Hezballah retaining their iron-fist control over Lebanon and the Iraqi Shiites retaining their hold on the southern half of Iraq. This could very well be the starting positions for a final World War resulting in exchanges of nuclear weapons before the end is reached. This map also depicts the areas bordering the Iranian influence which could become the future red lines and the trip wire for a horrific conflagration, exactly what the Twelvers desire to bring back the Twelfth Imam and the Islamic Messiah who will lead them to finally realize their destiny of world conquest. Despite what many in the West view as an outdated and dead idea, the Iranian leadership dreams of world conquest and desire to that end.

 

Hamas’s new leader, Yahya Sinwar, was a previous prisoner in Israel for his terrorist acts and was released in Shalit exchange. He was the founder of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas established so that the rest of Hamas, which is simply the support structure for the military wing, can claim to the world that they are simply a governing force in Gaza and have no connection with terrorism. Hamas has at times found Iran as an ally who have provided rocket and missile technologies as well as weapons and explosives often passing these shipments through the Sudan before passing into the Sinai Peninsula and then through the tunnels into Gaza. This has at times included IRGC commanders and experts to teach Hamas workers in the production of ever-larger rockets with greater ranges and payload capability. Then there is the normal Hamas alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood which is their natural ally as they are both Sunni while Iran is Shiite. The fact that Iran assists Hamas simply gives evidence to the hatred and absolute desire to threaten and destroy Israel drives the leadership in Iran. Hamas took control of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority in a coup during June 10-15, 2007, and since then have attacked Israel repeatedly with Israel having to enter Gaza in a major action three times, 2008, 2012 and 2014. Israel had pulled all Civilians and IDF forces from Gaza in August and September of 2005 which should have permitted the Arabs to build a functioning state in Gaza free of Israeli interference. Instead, once Hamas took control the Gaza has been used as a launching pad for rockets and infiltrations intending to murder Israelis and capture hostages to use to force Israel into releasing terrorists. This is a weakness which the terrorists will continue to exploit for as long as Israel continues to release ever more terrorist prisoners now even releasing terrorists with blood on their hands, the final red line they had promised never to cross. Hamas has been speaking up another war with Israel, as has Nasrallah of Hezballah in Lebanon. One might believe that Hezballah was too involved in Syria but they also figure that a short and limited war using mostly rockets with Israel would renew their standing amongst the Muslim population of Lebanon and if it can be coordinated with attacks by Hamas, perhaps they can have their brief conflict and take only minor damage as Israel could be more entangled with Hamas. Hamas’s new leader immediately talked of his plans to annihilate Israel, as the new Hamas forces would be vastly superior to their Israeli opponents. This type of boasting has been heard before and fortunately, these boasts have not always produced conflict. The Israelis welcome no conflict, as they desire peace with their neighbors, as they prefer not to have to fight and destroy lives and inflict casualties, especially civilians which Hamas and Hezballah both use as human shields to protect their rocket stores and launchers.

 

Russia and Turkey are both involved in Syria and the United States has taken to supporting the Kurdish forces in the northeastern Syrian regions where they mostly defend their areas from attack and are not moving to take new land but merely to push terror forces from their lands and reestablish their areas where their population resided. Turkey has been claiming to fight the Islamic State but mostly have been striking at the Kurds. President Trump mentioned the establishing Kurdistan though, like moving the embassy in Israel, that may be more talk than actual American position. Russia has one major interest in reality, their two naval ports in Syria and on the Mediterranean Sea. These are the Russian warm water ports with access to the Atlantic Ocean through the Gibraltar Straights. Turkey wants to eliminate the Kurds. Islamic State wants to conquer the world starting with Bashir al-Assad. The Syrian Free Army wants to disguise their real alliance with terrorist forces, receive American weaponry, also win against Assad, Islamic State, and then decide where to turn next as they desire as well to be the new Caliphate. Islamic State already declared themselves the new Caliphate. President Erdoğan has laid claim to being the new caliph, nobody saluted. Syria will not be producing any new Caliphate or the next Caliph, it will simply be where too many people have died and will continue to die and there will be young men who have little in their life rushing to join and make a great name so they can return home a hero. All too many will simply never return home. The real fear would be for Russia and the United States to run into a face-to-face conflict by accident or by design of one against the other trying to force a standoff to see who blinks first. There is also a small possibility that Israel could also run into a problem with Russia which there are rumors that the two do communicate normally in order to prevent just such a problem from developing but which could break down if the Russians are proved to be warning Bashir al-Assad or especially if they are warning Hezballah and their suppliers in Iran. At some point Russia is going to have to come to the realization that once Bashir al-Assad either wins back all of Syria or sufficient parts of Syria in the southeast connecting with Iraq and establishing the crescent across the Middle East and giving Iran the ability to mass troops on Israeli borders, then Iran will no longer need Russia and will desire those exact same ports the Russians desire. This could lead to Iran attempting to take the ports from Russia and forcing a confrontation between Russia and Iran.

 

The final front is all of Europe and the United States. The attackers are the terrorists and their so-called “lone wolf” attacks who have been “self-radicalized” which western leaders often just explain, “we have to learn to live with it.” Everything in quotes above is false and the reason we are losing. If these terrorists are all “lone wolves,” then why after each attack does the Islamic State claim responsibility for the attack? The reason is easy to think through, whether they had anything to do with the attack, it was still an attack for Islam and the Islamic State claims to be the leadership of all Islamic fighters, thus these “lone wolves” are all their fighters. The even bigger lie is the claim that they are “self-radicalized.” That is ridiculous as these so-called “self-radicalized” individuals received the information which turned them into a weapon of Islam, and that is what we need to call them, weapons for Islam, as that is what they claim they are, was placed in a video, a booklet, an Imam’s sermons, training in some Muslim country at a terror base protected by the government, or simply from reading the Quran, all come from other than the individual terrorist. In some means or source, they received the information and programming which turned them into a weapon of Islam and set them on their path to human carnage. Whether they are a suicide bomber, a remote detonating bomber who sits off and waits for the perfect time, of the timer placed bomber who simply hopes they chose the perfect time, they all were sent by some form of education and propaganda which they received from somewhere. There is a source and that is an Islamic source either from somewhere in the Middle East, North Africa or other Islamic nation or it is from a Mosque in the neighborhood where the Imam gave a sermon which started the future terrorist on the path and then there were the booklets from the Muslim owned book store with the free pamphlets, or the booklets and videos found on tables at the Islamic Center, or the future terrorist going to a terror base and there received the teachings of radical Islam. These terrorists will strike more and more often in shorter intervals and greater carnage as their techniques are improved. This will hit a point where the people will scream for protection and an end to this threat and their leadership will have to respond or face a very angry populace at the next elections. The people will get the leadership required to fight terrorism and take the steps required even if it takes more than one election. This will eventually lead to an alliance of leaders to end terrorism by whatever means required. This alliance will demand that the Islamic rulers either join the fight or face consequences. George W. Bush said the necessary words after 9/11/2001 and the Trade Center demolition when he said, “Either you are with us or you are with the terrorists.” He said it and then went all wobbly after his Saudi friends apparently took the wind out of his sails. The question which some have to be asking is, “Where is our generation’s Churchill, and when will he appear?” Then in Israel, we are asking whether we need a Joshua, Ruth, Deborah, King David or Samson or will we need to wait for the Messiah. These are the questions which need answering so we will know now whether we are on our own and had better start taking care of ourselves and those dear to us and possibly our countries and civilization.

 

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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