Beyond the Cusp

December 20, 2015

Why Iranian Nuclear Program Matters

 

President Obama would like the world to believe that there was a nuclear deal reached, signed, sealed and delivered to the Security Council and set into stone. There are a few problems with that story line, namely the Iran part of the deal. The part of the nuclear deal which is valid is that the sanctions have been lifted, Iran is back in the oil and pistachio business while European companies are tripping over each other in a race to sign deals with Iran and get their share of the billions which are going to be flowing when Iran receives the monies the United States is obligated to release from banks and investment accounts. The deal passed by the Security Council made the European and United States parts of the deal sealed and delivered and sent the Iranian part of the deal to Iran where it was graciously received and filed in the nearest wastebasket. Think back and try to remember the conflicting news reports from those final days of the Iran nuclear negotiations with the P5+1 consisting of Russia, China, Britain, France, the United States plus Germany and think back to the celebratory language and you might remember that the Obama White House and State Department were claiming one set of conditions, the Europeans had their version, Russia and China made very few statements with some in interviews with Western news interviews revealing that they were uncertain on a number of issues in Moscow and Beijing remaining mute and Iran claiming an entirely different interpretation and having doubts that the remaining difficulties would ever be bridged. I’m not sure those differences were ever ironed out nor does it appear that Iran has ever considered themselves to have made any promises to the Western World or the United Nations or anybody else. For the record, the Iranian parliament has never approved any deal that the United States or anybody else can honestly report and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has never signed any paperwork for a deal and thus Iran is not legally bound to anything just as the State Department freely admitted in a letter to Representative Mike (R-Kan.) of the House Intelligence Committee.

 

This admission simply echoes the actions by Tehran which has now made two test launches of ballistic missiles which would have definitively been forbidden by any deal admitted to exist by any of the Western Nations as well as the United Nations interpretations of the agreement, but nobody appears to be rearing up in reaction to these tests. There has been no ‘snapback’ of sanctions and the releasing of funds as theoretically agreed upon by western Nations in any version of a deal is proceeding along on schedule. Are we the only ones who seem concerned that there appears to be an agreement to free the dogs of nuclear ambitions in Iran while obliging the West to release the funds and remove all sanctions which might have proven to be an impediment and chaining the United States and European nations to back the Russian, Chinese and Iranian desires for business as usual as if there is not a care in the world? A quick check of news stories and it seems the most recent testing of another nuclear delivery capable continental ballistic missile, the most powerful yet and a decent sign that Iran is aiming for Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capabilities and is going at such capabilities with some vigor does concern any number of responsible adults. Unfortunately the closest the White House has come to a responsible adult has been United Nations Ambassador Samantha Power who stated at a Congressional hearing last week, “discussions are a form of U.N. action.” So, apparently the White House left Congress and themselves no actual control over sanctions and thus the possible ‘snapback’ is solely in the hands of the United Nations where such is an impossibility and even if the United States acted, theirs would necessarily be a whole new set of sanctions which are presumably forbidden by the presumed deal which is no deal and the White House would necessarily, as they have stated, veto any such sanctions. So as it currently sits, Iran will receive their $150 billion in unfrozen assets within the next six months, can test missiles to their hearts’ delight and all are to proceed as if there are sanctions on Iran when in reality the sanctions are on the Western Powers making sanctions near to impossible and now even the IAEA has officially surrendered before the Iranian games of guile as we reported recently in What the IAEA Closure of Their Iran Investigations Really Meant.

 

What has been successfully pulled off by deceptiveness, chicanery and outright lies is the freeing of Europe to return to their preferred business as usual and ignore the consequences, a similar aspect to their recent receipt of the first wave of ‘Syrian refugees’ and intent to make them legal citizens almost automatically which will grant them new visas from their new home nation and also grant them instant acceptance on the visa waiver program the United States shares with the European Union. What could be better as it has been made obvious that the vast majority of these ‘Syrian refugees’ are not Syrian, are not refugees, are not dirt poor losing everything in the civil war and Bashir al-Assad’s butchery and are intent on infiltrating the United States as they see Europe rightfully as all but conquered already. What we do have as the vast majority of these ‘Syrian refugees’ are military age single males with plenty of money and a penchant for rioting and causing disturbances and will very likely prove to be the tip of the spear with the only question being are they Islamic State, al-Qaeda, Taliban, or Iranian IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) trained infiltrators who have received some of the best training in sabotage and other disruptive acts and also master coordinators (community organizers on steroids). Whatever and whomever they are operating under, this sizeable sector of the ‘Syrian refugees’ who have poured into Europe, largely centered on Germany and the Scandinavian nations all of which have some of the best social services with the highest welfare payment structures in all of Europe, and with a fair share of the ‘Syrian refugees’ now headed to the final target on the list, the United Kingdom; their aims are becoming ever more clear, to bring Europe to its knees and then simply take charge of its remnants and turn it all over to whichever group manages to wrench control from the rest of the other groups. This simply means that the next front of the Syrian civil war turned Sunni-Shiite war will be being fought across Europe just as soon as the Christian and Atheist Secular Humanists have been murdered in large part or converted to Islam or converted to being good little worker Dhimmis producing for their new taskmasters. The alternative is a revolution by the Europeans themselves which will end very poorly for both sides as this will become very quickly a war of extermination and who will prove the strongest force and last group standing is in doubt though we would place our money on the home team as they know the landscape and will be fighting for their own survival and the survival of their way of life and the Europeans have proven their ability for warfare and the heritage to match. The question which needs answering is when, or should it be, will the European Union and the individual governments such as Angela Merkel’s Germany and François Hollande’s France wake from their utopian dream, which is proving to be a hellish nightmare for their people, before their nations are so overrun with ‘Syrian refugees’ that recovery has been made impossible? If not, does the average European have it within them to force their leaders to heed and save the lands before it is too late? The greatest of fears is that for Western Europe it may already be too late.

 

The other ramification of the ‘Syrian refugees’ problem is that with much of Eastern European nations, former Warsaw Pact nations plus Greece, have closed their borders allowing those who wish to take trains through to Germany and other points west with the train stations along the tracks well-guarded to force the ‘Syrian refugees’ through to all points west. What way will these nations be turning once NATO ceases to offer them any real protection? We see their returning to the Russian sphere of influence as Vladimir Putin (aka Vlad the Invader), offering a stronger arm in protecting them from the invading ‘Syrian refugees’ and all that encompasses, then turning to the seemingly feckless United States which has proven itself to be weak and unsupportive at best and traitorous at worst. Poland and the Czech Republic, despite being the victims of President Obama’s cancellation of the radar and anti-missile system which had been approved for delivery and operation on their bases, might hold out and wait to see who wins the 2016 United States elections though if pressed would likely seriously consider placing their bets on a sure thing, meaning Putin. And now we can probably name the three things which will be the Obama legacy; first, a nuclear armed Middle East tinderbox; second, a neutered United States military degraded to a point of near impotence; and third, removing any trust in the United States as her promises have been proven to be simply worthless if any change of administration can so abruptly and totally alter the realities and break any and all promises with allies apparently is just as easily done as it is with revolutions in third world nations. The last one which renders the United States as untrustworthy will prove to be the straw which breaks the camel’s back as if the word of the President of the United States is only good for as long as he or his party holds the Office of the President, then what worth does any Presidential promise hold? Even worse was that President Obama also went back on promises made by President Willian Jefferson Clinton which infers that even same party Presidencies may prove untrustworthy of keeping promises made by previous Presidents of their own party. One thing which has been made evidently obvious is that any nation relying on the United States to have their back had best also have their own Plan B just in case they find their back suddenly rendered vulnerable as their strongest protection of their back having quit and gone home prematurely. Further, depending on the United States to actually produce and make good on promises of weapons systems being completely dependent on any new President continuing with the production or delivery of promised systems should put the fear of heaven in them as the anti-missile systems and radar cancelled and the premature stoppage of production of the F-22 Raptor proved as that was the fighter the United States was counting on for granting her air superiority over any other nation, something the F-35 joint strike fighter does not and may even prove to be less of a fifth generation fighter when compared to the Eurofighter Typhoon or the Russian Sukhoi Su-27.

 

 

Picture of F22 Raptor, F35 Joint Strike Fighter, Eurofighter Typhoon or the Russian Sukhoi Su-27

 

 

These are the lasting legacies of President Obama and they will all but destroy the faith in the world of any United States President for some time into the future until trust can be proven or given a legal basis. The only item which may be seen as trustworthy might be actual treaties which have the full backing of the congress and the Courts, including especially the Supreme Court and as such may be proven to be beyond the reach of any American President to negate by his or her own power without running afoul of the Courts and Congress. Even this will need to be seen by those who have been burnt the most by this administration and its complete disregard for precedent, Presidential respect for and by other administrations and potentially the rule of law which would make even treaties only as good as the President and congress who made them and otherwise potentially worthless. The United States is going to have to face these issues and either find some manner of placing the nation behind the promises of their Presidents going forward when a new President takes the office and has a different view of the world and sees the promises of the predecessor as unbinding upon them, that must be changed if the United States ever desires to be respected and trusted ever again. Perhaps it is time for a previously unthought of and seemingly unnecessary Amendment to the United States Constitution which will state that once the President and the Congress have declared use of the United States military to undertake a task that from that point forward or until a supermajority of two-thirds of both houses of congress and the President together call the mission complete, the military will remain on stations until the military Joint Chiefs of Staff declare the mission completed. Such an amendment would restore faith that once the United States military was deployed that they would not simply pull out leaving whatever governance they left in place completely vulnerable and it will cause the Congress and President to carefully spell out the necessary accomplishments of every mission long before troops would be deployed. Both of these required changes in the way troops are deployed and returned from deployment would make for stricter definitions of any mission and a clear promise that once the United States troops are deployed and tasked with supporting any government until said time that it has been stabilized and completely functioning with domain over all of its nation that the United States will not just pull out leaving a huge sucking sound of a vacuum which will almost always be filled by other than savory forces. Such would give real meaning to any military promise given by the Congress and President when forces are deployed to a long term mission which will necessarily be passed to the next President and his administration which would be powerless to end the mission unless the military top level commanders determined the mission completed.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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July 7, 2015

The World After President Obama

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,2016 Elections,24/7 News Reporting,Absolutism,Act of War,Administration,Advanced Weapions Systems,Afordable Healthcare Act,al-Qaeda,Alawite,Amalekites,Anti Missile System,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab Authority,Arab Spring,Arab Winter,Arab World,Arabist,Arabs,Armed Services,Army,Austerity Measures,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollahs,Benyamin Netanyahu,Blue Water Navy,Border Patrol,Breakout Point,Cabinet,Calaphate,Caliphate,Candidate,China,Chinese Military,Chinese Pressure,Civil War,Civil War,Civilization,Class Warfare,Combat Stress,Conflict Avoidnce,Consequences,Covert Actions,Coverup,Debt,Department of Defense,Dictator,Domestic NGOs,Drone Strikes,Ease Sanctions,Ecology Lobby,Economic Growth,Economic Sanctions,Economy,Egypt,Elections,Equal Outcome,Europe,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Extreme Leftist,Extreme Right,Fordo,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,Framework,Gender Issues Lobby,German Pressure,Government,Government Health Care,Great Britain,Hate,Hispanic Appeasement,Humanitarian Aid,Humanitarian Aid,Illegal Immigration,Immigrant,Immigration,Ineffective Sanctions,Inteligence Report,Interest on Debt,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Intifada,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,Iraqi Military,IRGC,IRGC,ISIS,ISIS in Gaza,ISIS in Judea and Samaria,Islam,Islam,Islamic Jihad,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Interests,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,Jordanian Pressure,Judea,Judeo-Christian,Keynesian Economics,Lebanon,Leftist Pressures,Mainland China,Mainstream Media,Media,Military Intervention,Ministers,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Multiculturalism,Murder Israelis,Muslim Expansionism,Muslim World,Muslims,Nationalist Pressures,Non Binding Resolution,Nonjudicial Assassination,North Korea,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Proliferation,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Obama,Obama Care,One State Solution,Oslo Accords,P5+1,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Pressures,Parchin,Parliament,Parliamentary Government,Peace Process,Pentagon,Plutonium Production,Politically Correct,Politicized Findings,Politics,Power,President Sisi,Pressure by Egyptian People,Primaries,Promised Land,Qom,Reapply Sanctions,Regulations,Remove Sanctions,Right of Return,Rocket Attacks,Russian Military,Russian Pressure,Samaria,Sanctions,Saudi Arabia,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secular Interests,Sharia,Shiite,South China Sea,South China Sea,Special Forces,Statehood,Submission,Sunni,Syria,Taqiyya,Terror,Theocracy,Third Intifada,Threat of War,Threat of War,Tibet Occupation,Tribe,Troop Withdrawal,Union Interests,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Upgraded Military Capabilities,Uranium Enrichment,US Air Force,US Army,US Marines,Vote of No Confidence,Voting,Weapons of Mass Destruction,World Government,World Media,World Opinion,World Pressures,World War II,World Without Zionism or America,Yemen Army,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:45 AM
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There are those amongst my friends and acquaintances who fear that President Obama will declare Martial Law after instigating some false national emergency whose borderline irrational fear mirrors that of those who feared the same from President George W. Bush. There is too much precedent for such to occur and President Obama will step down and give way to the duly elected President in mid-January of 2017 after the 2016 November elections. The question remains what shape will the world present to the next President and what shape will they find the United States presenting them, allowing for actions to steer the United States after their inauguration. The one point that needs to be made is this assessment is made with absolutely no regards from which party or who will be the next President as we can cross that bridge when we reach it. The first thing is the President will face his power on foreign policy will start from a position of actual weakness not felt by the United States since the start of World War II and actually in worse condition than at the end of President Carter or any other. They will be facing a situation where every branch of the military will have had bordering neglect of weapons systems and other vital maintenance with potentially the nuclear deterrent and missile systems in potentially the worst shape with some munitions in such disrepair as to require their destruction and the necessary systems for producing and upgrading these vital assets also teetering on exhausted supplies and neglected condition as to make their management a simple case of dereliction of duty caused by strangled funding and intentional degradation ordered from the highest places. They will find the senior officers to be largely made up of a weakened corps of merely ‘yes men’ and actual pacifists who believe the United States military would best serve the world in the capacity to deliver aid but not necessarily deliver force of arms beyond the shoreline with the exception of utilizing drones and other stand-off weapons partially due to depleted manpower caused by decreased funding and the paring down of the military leadership through neglect to make efforts to retain the officer’s corps.

 

The rebuilding of the military power will take a concerted effort and require massive funding increases which will make any promise of reduction of the tax burden near to impossible to deliver on in the first two years without simply patching some of the most serious areas of military weakness due to nearly eight years of intentional neglect and lack of concerns for the consequences. There will be the need for some of the cancelled military productions and for consideration of developing modern replacement for some of the oldest of the vital systems. The B-52 heavy bombing corps is utilizing airframes mostly built before 1990 and using systems designed originally in the early and mid-1950s and receiving upgrades restricted to that airframe and other limitations due to restrictions resulting from the designs being of antiquated designs and technologies which would require extensive restructuring of the basic airframe which would more likely be better served by replacement of the B-52 fleet with a new long-range bomber designed with forward looking technology. Even the B-1 and B-2 bombers are utilizing old technology and would require a complete overhaul of systems and even design. The Air Force may be better served with considering a completely new strategy where the pilots of fighter squadrons no longer were seated directly in the aircraft but instead flying the fighters from remoted position of a dedicated stealth aircraft where multiple fighters are controlled from relative safe stand-off positions. Such remotely controlled aircraft could retain much of the size of the current airframes which now being remotely controlled the airframes could be designed with intent of making high-G maneuvers previously impossible to execute due to having a pilot onboard the aircraft. Such a fleet utilizing such design parameters would revolutionize air combat for the future in ways thought unimaginable just ten years ago. The same considerations could be utilized in many modern systems when their next redesign is due especially armored combat vehicles using similar control systems allowing for the replacement of crews with automated systems which would permit decreased size and vulnerability of profile while retaining the accuracy and armaments of modern warfare armored systems. Replacing the infantryman with a robotic system is not yet feasible but should be a priority task presented to DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) with an expected rollout of several prototypes each providing the same abilities with additional features possible only in a robotic system. These systems would still require human operators who would make final decisions of when to shoot and when to stand down. It is doubtful that the American population is ready for terminator styled soldiers operating independently reliant solely on advanced AI (artificial intelligence) units quite yet, but even that would be a presentable concept when considering the demands that any military action place risk on the troops minimizing any possibility of human casualties.

 

The stress on military upgrading and rebuilding is simply due to the requirement of a force to back up policy is required if one intends to have a positive position in dealings with other nations or a defensive position which by requirement is overtly careful so as not to provoke anger or rejection knowing that the military is unable to back up and enforce policies and other demands including protection of the homeland and its interests overseas. This is crucial because the next President will be facing difficulties of the United States’ own making across the globe. Europe will be facing economic challenges which will render their policies being ever more defensive and cautious with numerous European nations facing unrest within their borders. The potential for an explosion of bloodshed within the European continent is becoming not only a future threat but approaching transforming into an imminent threat uncontrolled illegal immigration will be approaching the tipping point where the European culture will become challenged which will push the European indigenous population to the point where the decision will be the same as it has been throughout human history when two disparate and opposing cultures reach the point where the minority population decides to attempt, through intimidation and other threats, to impose their norms on the ever shrinking and aging majority replacing their culture and supplanting them as those wielding power going into the future. Should Europe when so challenged react in the fashion which has served them in the past, with such response as often typified be referencing the Inquisitions, the result will be just as or even more horrific. Europe as a whole has a very disturbing history of open warfare between competing positions which were demanding for far lesser changes in the culture causing horrific wars even including civil conflicts within one’s borders. The possibility of similar response today is all too real. One need not look that far afield to bear witness to such results where internal forces rise up and before all is decided, outside forces enter the war hijacking it to forcefully take over the nation wracked already in violence in an attempt to install a new set of leadership just as dictatorial, just as oppressive, just as cruel and potentially even more barbarous than the one being overturned. Such disasters even threaten to redraw the maps casting the formation for the sham and relativity designed solely to enrich foreign investments. Such is what is being fought over and is the main reasoning given by ISIS who is intent on supplanting both the former dictator and those who sought to replace their dictator with a modern system most likely with elected representation resulting in what is oft referred to as a democracy. Should ISIS prove victorious, there will be a new leadership in the form of a Caliph, an old title being restored so as to impose an old dictatorial leadership who takes their claim to the throne based on historic familial relationship to former Caliphs all the way to Muhammad thus adding a religious basis for their power. Such a religious tyranny would be very similar though diametrically opposed to the theocratic dictatorship of Iran, the other eight-hundred-pound gorilla in this struggle. The third leg of this societal struggle would be represented by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Saeed Hussein Khalil el-Sisi who has yet to be fully defined and is the sole representative desiring to inspire his nation to become the towering example of how an Arab and Muslim state is capable of using elections as the tool for actually choosing the national governance but also guaranteed to be free and open elections even should he be defeated, and then comes the real test as to whether or not the newly elected leader after President Sisi also chooses to continue the liberal march into modernity or chooses to install themselves as the unchallengeable leader of Egypt. Meanwhile, there are three distinct powers currently vying to lead by two of these and the third simply has desires of surviving the current assaults on its existence which has been an active fight since its inception in May of 1948 and has been pressed to remain on the cusp between militaristic power and start-up nation with a thriving economy wishing only to be unleashed by the restraints necessitated by a constant threat of war.

 

The largest challenge looming on the horizon and very possibly to explode before the end of President Obama’s remaining time in office is of his own doing. The potential for the start of a struggle that would forever change the world may have started once President Obama completes his own set goal of bringing Iran back into the world of nations. The manner in which President Obama set out to perform this miracle would have entailed defanging Iran and then inviting them to join the nations of the world with peaceful intentions by Iran. Instead we have a United States President blindly charging forth demanding this will be his legacy, the making of Iran a coequal partner of the Middle East. The one unavoidable fact is that just as Obamacare (Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act) will be his domestic policy legacy; just as, if not more, dreadful will be his foreign policy legacy as Iran becomes a nuclear power which will have established a basic arsenal of deliverable nuclear warheads consisting of minimally a dozen and more likely three to four dozen with at least one third being thermonuclear warheads (hydrogen fusion warheads). This will place Iran well ahead of whatever plans Saudi Arabia may have in place. This announcement may come at any moment all dependent upon the extent and advancement of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The truth is the world has absolutely no clue as to whether or not Iran already possesses a number of nuclear warheads hidden away from the prying eyes wandering across the skies both orbital and others ground based aircraft. The one truth we do know is that once it becomes obvious that Iran has become a nuclear power, then it will not take numerous other Middle East nations to develop and start building their nuclear weapons arsenals. This new weapons conflict may be solely restrained by the availability of Uranium in any form to be enriched to weapons level of over ninety-percent and then its merging with the rest of the warhead. Below is the list of known nuclear weapons states and an estimate on their numbers of warheads. Once Iran has announced or been determined beyond a reasonable doubt to be armed with nuclear weapons, then the list below will become somewhat obsolete as it is rumored that Saudi Arabia has a standing agreement with Pakistan to purchase approximately one dozen nuclear warheads just so Saudi Arabia will be covered while they acquire and build their own weapons thereafter. One can also expect that Egypt and Turkey would follow suit and develop their own nuclear weapons systems. The breakdown of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, also referred to as the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), will tempt certain other members to choose to opt out and develop their own nuclear weapons. Some nations may decide to develop and build their own nuclear weapons while retaining their place on the NPT committees. Some of the other nations which might decide the time has come to join the nuclear club include Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Taiwan and Japan to name a few that came to mind. The nuclear club is perched to become a far larger club of nations where its membership will no longer be the reserved of the very elite but start to resemble another useless body, the United Nations General Assembly which has become a place where the barbarians sit in judgement making decisions that carry no weight behind them beyond the media attention they generate.

1) Russia 7,500
2) United States 7,100
3) France 300
4) China 250
5) United Kingdom 225
6) Pakistan120 (estimated)
7) India 110 (estimated)
8) Israel 80 (estimated)
9) North Korea < 10 (estimated)
10) Iran ??

 

The final stage is China and her continuous efforts to claim the South China Sea and all the islands found within that general area. The problem is there are other nations who claim these islands and who hold claims just as valid. There is a chance of a conflict here though one has to imagine that China is the eight-hundred-pound gorilla of Asia as her size and modernized army with weapons to match and including nuclear weapons. This is the main reason that Japan, Taiwan and even the Philippines might all be slowly reaching the conclusion that if they are to prevent China taking over the islands one after the other inexorably slinking towards their main Isles thus posing an ever growing threat to these Island nations, they are considering that which would have a decade ago been unthinkable, joining the nuclear armed nations so as to have equal threat potential against China. More as an aside than a warning, one must also remember that the most recent Russian madman, Putin, has delusions of reestablishing Greater Russia and now that China and Russia are back on speaking terms, they have been talking of an alliance for sharing technological advances, nuclear technology, weapons research and development. This has an ominous side in that most terrorist groups have either Russia or China at the head of their supply chain. All taken in, we find the nation of the United States with a military that many have pointed to as merely having the strength the United States could project at the very start of World War II, Russia and China ascending, Iran, supported by Russia and China, being handed nuclear weapons and a very large industrial scale systems to construct said weapons from where they will begin to exercise power over the Middle East and perhaps beyond to Central and South America through Venezuela and Cuba being aided by Russia who appears poised to reacquire the lands of Eastern Europe and Central Eurasia, reestablishing the concept of a Greater Russia. Additionally there is China with an ever more capable navy claiming and taking one island after another while claiming all of the South China Sea and threatening to replace America as the preeminent power in the Pacific including the coastal areas in South America and made all the worse as the United States had gifted China with owning the ports at both ends of the Panama Canal even before the turn of the calendar to the twenty-first century.Then Iran has as luck would have it control over the Straits of Hormuz through which almost all of the Middle Eastern oil is transported to the world and is taking control the straits of Bab el Mandeb through their proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, which grants them control over the Suez Canal as this is where the Red Sea enters the Gulf of Aden leading to the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean and the world thus granting Iran control over one third of the world’s trade and oil while China controls the busiest sea in the South China Sea as well as the second busiest canal in the Panama Canal. How much more change can the world hope to endure?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 4, 2015

Would You Trust Iran This Much?

 

The first number to jump up has been the six-thousand centrifuges the Iranians will be permitted to retain in active service, a far cry from the five to fifteen hundred centrifuge numbers originally floated by the State Department. The claims that the six-thousand centrifuges is a reduction of over two-thirds of the Iranian total of nineteen thousand centrifuges is a technically accurate statement, the Iranians had seldom had over ten-thousand centrifuges used at any given moment in time thus the reality is that the Iranians are merely cutting the number of operable centrifuges by approximately one-third, not two-thirds. As we noted yesterday, all of the restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program will expire in ten to twenty years and none of the restrictions are to be permanent in nature. This means that even should the Iranians obey every last restriction with no cheating, then they will be back in business inside of twelve years and well on their way to having a breakout point of merely weeks assuming the centrifuges they will be reinstalling are their present day best and not some improved newer version centrifuges. Then there is the point that once there has been a deal reached that the Iranian nuclear programs will have probably attained the greatest and most important item possible from the talks, the formal recognition by the western world and the United Nations of their right to enrich uranium and to possess a fully functioning nuclear program. And all of this depends on the program and talks not exploding again and everything going back to square one.

 

One might ask what the rest of the world got out of the talks and into the framework as it is fairly obvious that the Iranians got to retain a large percentage of their enrichment mechanisms and will not be burdened by a permanent restriction of their program. The most obvious item is that the Iranians will presumably be using their least advanced centrifuges and will not be upgrading their capabilities anytime in the immediate future. There will be what appears to be, on paper at least, a firm and significant inspection program in place. And it appears that Iran’s breakout point was lengthened and their stockpiles of enriched uranium reduced. Still, we would not be entirely truthful if we did not note the one thing that struck us was the point that some have made is that this inspection routine appears to be similar in nature to the kind of inspection routine that one would often find coming up as the answer to such a posed problem of inspecting a nuclear program in a college setting where students were tasked with addressing the concerns of a national nuclear program. Anything which sounds similar to the kind of answer often found on a college campus as the response to an assignment strikes us as potentially being very suspect and probably not that sophisticated. In theory the size of the amount of the Iranian stockpiles will be significantly reduced though the fact that such will be accomplished by turning them over to the Russians leaves us less than ecstatic. And finally, the breakout point will theoretically be more considerable than it currently exists. And what is likely to be the greatest risk to the rest of the world is that all the gains made depend on Iranian honesty and their not reneging on any part of the deal as they have done numerous times already. The Iranians have often claimed they were unaware of the terminology used in the phrasing and thus the necessity for that area to be rehashed out just to get back to where there had been cautious agreement hours earlier.

 

Even if everything is a settled as it seems, there are still any number of things left to be thrashed about until some semblance of order is attained. The accusations made by Iranian Chief Negotiator and Foreign Minister Zarif referring to the State Department fact sheet which was released have been somewhat disheartening. Mr. Zarif was quoted as stating, “The solutions are good for all, as they stand. There is no need to spin using ‘fact sheets’ so early on.” Mr. Zarif has further pointed out, “We’ll continue enriching, we won’t close any facilities…all UN and US sanctions will be terminated.” Additionally there appears to be little reference to having the Iranians answer the serious questions the IAEA inspectors have over previous military working applications of their research. This has been something pretty much ignored by the talks but which the IAEA appear to place significantly greater importance upon. Then there is the case of what potential ramifications might befall Iran should they transgress against any agreement once it has been reached? As things currently sit it would require taking their supposed transgression before the United Nations Security Council and gaining the reapplications of sanction from at a minimum of nine members and at the same time avoiding any veto from any of the permanent Security Council members which include the United States, France, Britain, China and Russia. What could potentially go wrong? I mean there is no possibility of either Russia or China using their veto power to shield their ally from any difficulties or ramifications to their actions, right?

 

Then there is the one person who has made it his defining point to reveal any problems with the agreements as they stand. No, we did not mean me, we mean Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The Prime Minister missed little time before pointing out how he feels concerning the current framework agreement as being “detached from reality” and “possibly even worse than we had previously thought” amongst other denunciations of the framework agreement. And this time the Prime Minister is far from standing alone as most of the Israeli political leaders even including the Prime Minister’s leading adversaries, Yitzhak Hertzog and Tzipi Livni having also come out and denounced the agreement. Also making such comments was Yair Lapid, another usual critic of Netanyahu in the past. The general coconscious amongst Israeli leadership can be readily summed up with two words, “”historic mistake;” despite what Obama asserted, “I am convinced that if this framework leads to a final comprehensive deal it will make our country, our allies and our world safer,” and additionally insisting that despite criticisms the agreement would effectively cut off any options for Iran to build a nuclear bomb. This did little to silence critics of the deal in Israel where Cabinet Ministers met and they and other officials made statements including these, “If an agreement is reached on the basis of this framework, it is an historic mistake which will make the world far more dangerous,” and “It is a bad framework which will lead to a bad and dangerous agreement. The framework gives international legitimacy to Iran’s nuclear program, the only aim of which is to produce a nuclear bomb,” as well as this definitive statement from Prime Minister Netanyahu, “A deal based on this framework would threaten the survival of Israel. Just two days ago, Iran said that ‘the destruction of Israel is non-negotiable,’ and in these fateful days Iran is accelerating the arming of its terror proxies to attack Israel. This deal would legitimize Iran’s nuclear program, bolster Iran’s economy, and increase Iran’s aggression and terror throughout the Middle East and beyond. Such a deal would not block Iran’s path to the bomb. It would pave it. It would increase the risks of nuclear proliferation in the region and the risks of a horrific war. The alternative is standing firm and increasing the pressure on Iran until a better deal is achieved.” About all we could add to this most puissant commentary from the Prime Minister might be to ask that the Prime Minister, “Tell us how you really feel and don’t hold back on our account.” And if I may, allow me to ask one last set of questions, could somebody please tell me who will be the first to launch, at whom will they be launching, how many will end up launching in the ensuing four or five days of what will very briefly be called the Terminal War before the world returns to the stone age, and when mankind again becomes interested in their history, how will they refer to the large areas of shocked quartz and vitrification of sands into glass mingled with remains of cities and lastly, how will they explain the remaining megastructures as having been built by stone age man without modern tools?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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