Beyond the Cusp

July 30, 2017

North Korea Sending Trump Personal Message

 

Kim Jong-un has allowed his latest missile to do his talking and his message could not be clearer. President Trump has just been asked whether he feels ready to actually challenge the leader of North Korea or is he ready to back down, bringing his ships home, especially the three aircraft carriers, and stand down from his demands. There will be further questions the least of which will be will the world actually do anything in about six months, a year tops, when Kim Jong-un decides the time has come to unify the Korean Peninsula and place all of it under his benevolent rule. That ought to satisfy his appetite for the remainder of the decade before his sights turn to Japan. Oh, also, should Kim Jong-un be permitted to unify the Korean Peninsula under his rule, the world should expect the unification of China with Taiwan being reunited with Mainland China under the Communist’s rule. Taiwan would still be granted some additional freedom in a similar manner as has been permitted Hong Kong. This would include the slow tightening of the Communist noose that is initially placed loosely around Hong Kong’s neck. Believe it or not, these are the very ramifications that are facing President Trump and the allies of the United States in and around the Sea of Japan as well as Taiwan further south. In our map below, North Korea, as the greatest threat, is colored in red, China, the potential secondary threat, is colored in brown and South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are colored in yellow as the targets depending on the United States to enforce their protection.

 

China and North Korea with Their Targets South Korea, Japan and Taiwan

China and North Korea with Their Targets
South Korea, Japan and Taiwan

 

There was a reaction that came initially from Secretary of State Rex Tillerson who issued a statement declaring, “As the principal economic enablers of North Korea’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile development program, China and Russia bear unique and special responsibility for this growing threat to regional and global stability.” After speaking with Tillerson on Saturday, Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said Tokyo would join Washington in new appeals to China and Russia to stop North Korea’s missile program. There will be more commentary in the ensuing days, but the main truth, which need be addressed, is that now North Korea can launch a missile and strike the mainland of the United States. Initial reports claim that the extreme range for a missile matching the one launched yesterday using an optimum trajectory could reach Chicago. It was reported to be a Hwasong-14 missile that was launched (see video below), one of the missiles we talked about yesterday in Where Will You Be When Kim Jong-un Launches? What this means is actually far more reaching than most will report. Should North Korea decide they wished to decapitate the United States, they now have the means to launch a small nuclear warhead of minimal yield, which could be designed for a maximized EMP (electromagnetic pulse) which could devastate the United States electrical grid. Should such a device be detonated over the St Louis to Kansas City region, it could quite readily all but destroy the electrical grid of the United States between the Rocky Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains and from well into Canada above the Great Lakes through Texas in the south. Such a weapon would cripple the United States and incapacitate much of the United States military making the ability of the United States to respond to any threat to her allies limited to what could be provided by the Navy. At the moment, such an attack would leave the United States with unmatched power sitting off the North Korean coast in the form of three aircraft carrier groups.

 

 

Still, Kim Jong-un is sending the message that he does not believe that President Donald Trump has what it takes to actually do anything as if he did have such nerve, he would have already taken steps against North Korea. Kim Jong-un may not even be controllable by Russia or China, as he may have gone off the reservation and is now beyond control of anyone and only his death will prevent him from continuing to work towards his dream of weakening the United States, slowly making them powerless against him in the area around the Sea of Japan. The Sea of Japan is the pool of water over which Kim Jong-un desires control, and that makes South Korea and Japan his first natural targets. But there is one difficulty between Kim Jong-un and his goal of ruling his entire small fiefdom, the United States and its ability to crush him should he move even the slightest bit towards his goals. This is why he must first force the United States into knowing that any move made which would support either South Korea or Japan should either come under attack from Kim Jong-un, that he would not hesitate in launching ICBMs striking at the United States with sufficient numbers that they would face devastating destruction beyond what they could absorb. Kim Jong-un has already convinced the world that he cares little about anything but expanding his control and had definite delusions of grandeur and that his thoughts may not even be discernable and thus he becomes unpredictable. Some believe that Kim Jong-un has no real connection with reality and that he could do the unthinkable and begin a nuclear war by launching a nuclear strike on numerous cities within the United States plus using EMP designed warheads with special detonators that will explode them at the optimum altitude of approximately three hundred miles. We have previously told how North Korea has become even a larger problem than the Middle East or anywhere else. Even Syria is nowhere near the threat, neither is the Islamic State because, simply put, Kim Jong-un has been launching a new missile at an ever-increasing rate with each one surpassing the former. Even more distressing has been that each new missile has a greater range than the previous. There is another reality, which is even more of a worry, these newer missiles are no longer all liquid fueled missiles which take long preparations before launching which would permit the United States to detect their readying and preventing their launch; many are solid fueled missiles which can be launched without necessary preparation. These are the facts and there really is not much more that needs saying at this time, but we expect that Kim Jong-un will see to it he remains in our coverage soon. Until then, allow us a little room for levity as we quote Kim Jong-un as he would be in a Clint Eastwood movie, “These trucks carry six missiles and honestly, well, in all the excitement I’ve lost track of how many I’ve fired. Now, as one of these missiles destroys a city, you have to ask yourself a question, President Trump. Do you feel lucky? Well, do-ya Trump?”

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 3, 2017

A Detail from Yesterday About Kim Jong-un is Troubling

 

Yesterday we reported in our article about a preliminary analysis of Kim Jong-un’s personality by Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics. In it, the study revealed him to apparently be agreeable, acquiescent, charming, placing a high premium on external approval, sympathetic to others’ needs and socially gregarious on the plus side. Then there are the lesser traits resulting in an assessment that he is relinquishing too much authority, failing to assert himself sufficiently, delegating too much responsibility, as well as showing hesitation in taking the initiative when circumstances demand boldness or daring. As we noted, this would make him a potentially easy target for manipulation. This, we feel, needs a little more investigation and we will try our best to give a counting for what is a potential reality explaining the difference between the profile and the international reputation which Kim Jong-un’s actions have produced; certainly, the threatening and bragging attributed to Kim Jong-un in the media.

 

Initially, we have to believe the personality profile is authentic as a given and work from there. We know that Kim Jong-un was supposedly responsible for the execution of a general by firing squad and the murder of his uncle and arranged the assassination of his half-brother. All of these deaths presumed to be ordered by Kim Jong-un would be completely contrary to his personality profile. On the other hand, they would easily be explainable if he is being manipulated by a close advisor or a group from the North Korean military high establishment. If a group of generals has taken control of running North Korea, there is a definitive probability that at least one general was loyal to the royal family, would oppose them, and may have attempted to extricate Kim Jong-un from whatever pressure or situation he currently faces. This would likely have come to the knowledge of the remainder of the generals who support those now running the country and thus the rogue general trying to grant Kim Jong-un back his lost power would easily be found guilty of treason, the charge for which he was shot (or possibly hung, memory is uncertain but only his death matters). The uncle would also be a logical person as well as the half-brother thus leaving only Kim Jong-un left in the line of succession. If one or a group from the military or elsewhere are controlling Kim Jong-un, they now have left their pawn as the only person left of his family line left to rule North Korea and thus secured their control for the immediate future and potentially well beyond. It is very possible that if the military are behind controlling Kim Jong-un, they may have decided that he was unworthy and lacked the necessary strength and sense of urgency required to face the world and satisfy the needs and necessities of the nation. This is a coup by some other name.

 

The nuclear testing periodically, just enough to upset other leaders and be noticed but not quite enough to start a war immediately, along with their more aggressive testing of varying missiles with just sufficient capability to make the western leaders nervous and suspecting that North Korea has or is on the verge of developing ICBMs, leaves only the question of whether they would be multi-staged or single-stage, the latter being far more reliable and accurate. It is the ICBMs which have the west most worried as anything less is far lesser a threat and the current thinking is the only target that North Korea can strike would be Hawaii, which would be too much like a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, a mistake anybody would be ill advised to repeat. Still, the current threat is that North Korea is setting up to conduct another nuclear test and the recent increased rate of missile tests, including one fired well into the Pacific Ocean is leading to suspicions that the missile may have been the long sought North Korean ICBM. This truth may be the reality which President Trump may have been advised of through the Joint Chiefs of Staff having been advised by Military Intelligence or by the Central Intelligence Agency. That could be the reasoning behind the unprecedented show of strength by the United States as it is highly unlikely that President Trump would be devoting thirty percent of Americas supercarriers, the Carl Vinson (CVN-70) followed by the Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) and lastly the Nimitz (CVN-68), simply as means of calling Kim Jong-un’s bluff. Hopefully the military and intelligence geniuses behind advising President Trump, and hopefully there are advisors from either the military, intelligence or both and the President is not flying solo, and they know the risks and understand who they are facing off against. We really hope they know whether those running North Korea are a group of generals or others manipulating and controlling Kim Jong-un or actually Kim Jong-un himself.

 

The truth is that these supercarriers never travel alone and with three heading for the neighborhood of North Korea, there are going to be a large number of naval vessels and the supercarriers also have their specialty, a large contingent of modern aircraft which are what make these strike groups so capable and dangerous. The average contingent of aircraft aboard these supercarriers are twelve F/A-18E/F Hornets, thirty-six F/A-18 Hornets, four E-2C Hawkeyes, and four EA-6B Prowlers as well as a small number of helicopters which fly mostly close area defense. Multiply this by three and you have more airpower than some European nations have in their entire Air Force. For a feel as to what a supercarrier strike group would look like, simply view the picture of one sailing below. That is an awful lot of firepower and with the carrier, it is also a force that can reach far from its location and strike hard at any target. There are going to be at least three times this many ships sitting off the coast of North Korea somewhere just west of Japan. Now the question is what follows and what will North Korea do next.

 

Carrier Strike Group

Carrier Strike Group

 

The one thing which just might become known is who is really ruling in North Korea. Whether it will be Kim Jong-un, a group of generals or some group of politicians, sooner or later, they will show their hand. Kim Jong-un will, at some point, become more of a burden than he is worth and then he will be a liability. The one thing you never want to be in the game of power politics is a liability. Having Kim Jong-un play a part cannot be an easy path for ruling the nation and eventually the myth of the supremacy of the Kim family has to wain, and when it does, Kim Jong-un becomes useless and if there are people behind the scenes manipulating him, they will need to show their hand. In a way, we may end up hoping that Kim Jong-un is as insane as he appears and crazed with power as that might be more advantageous than a set of scheming generals or political operatives. Then again, maybe cold rational power hungry entities might be more predictable than Kim Jong-un. Whatever the truth ends up being, we just hope that somehow this all ends without any need to use the military power of either side. What would be the best is for North Korea to find some means of giving the people some degree of freedom, liberty and political power so that their nation can join the rest of the world and their country start to have a normative economy and relations with the rest of the world. This threatening to fire missiles and destroy other nations if certain demands are not met can only eventually end in disaster for all involved. Disaster in any form is something to be avoided.

 

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