Beyond the Cusp

December 19, 2015

What the IAEA Closure of Their Iran Investigations Really Meant

Perhaps we should be starting with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) Director General Yukiya Amano statements which pertained to the IAEA’s verification of Iranian nuclear research and development including answers to previous questionable activities and current activities including possible secretive research into weapons production.

 

 

 

 

We realize that you played that ten, fifteen, thirty times and still he said almost nothing other than we wash our hands of the Iran issue and give them a clean bill of health and for more read our nice, dry and hard to read report, if he said that much. So, you ask hoping we have read the report and you will not need to read the report, all sixteen pages, what did it all say? Well, we could answer off the top of our heads, as probably all of you could, it will say Iran is clean now though they may not have been completely honest in the past; we believe them completely now and there is almost nothing to worry about unless they are lying; but we don’t think they are lying, like we would admit we did even if we were sure they were lying, but you will have to trust that we trusted them. Oh, you really want us to go through the report and take out the pertinent parts, FINE! We’ll do so! Trust there is more article after the summary which can wait until you have the time and nothing more interesting to do. Scroll down and we’ll put a nice picture separating the final writings there to flag you down, so look for the flags.

 

The following were the actual quotes which may or may not clarify their findings and positions, but we figured that was their intentions.

 

“From 2002 onwards, the Agency became increasingly concerned about the possible existence in Iran of undisclosed nuclear related activities involving military related organizations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile. Reports by the Director General identified outstanding issues related to possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme and the actions required of Iran to resolve these.”
The information indicated that Iran had carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device. The information also indicated that prior to the end of 2003, these activities took place under a structured programme, and that some activities may still have been ongoing.
 
There was mention that their information came from a wide number of sources, another way of saying not to blame them, but just in case there was anything brilliant in the report they said that some came from their own efforts, and then another disclaimer which has to be quoted, “from a number of Member States, including Iran itself.” From here on it is quotes unless in {} or obvious commentary by us. And it will be obvious.
“Between January 2012 and May 2013, the Agency and Iran held ten rounds of talks in Vienna and Tehran, aimed at reaching agreement on a ‘structured approach’…no concrete results were achieved during those talks. …”
 
Framework for Cooperation
 
On 11 November 2013, the Agency and Iran signed a ‘Joint Statement on a Framework for Cooperation.’
{We could now quote a whole load of legalese describing their agreement and all the trust and measures and validations and verifications and our eyes started crossing and glazing over.}
 
Security Council Resolution 2231
 
On 20 July 2015, the Security Council adopted resolution 2231 (2015), in which, inter alia, it reaffirmed that Iran “shall cooperate fully as the IAEA requests to be able to resolve all outstanding issues, as identified in IAEA reports.”
 
Implementation of the Road-map
 
More Gobbled-y-Goop
 
Methodology
 
More Gobbled-y-Goop
 
Area Assessments
 
Gobbled-y-Goop but here it is in case it might be important, like FoR ReAL!
 
As previously reported, the Agency has focused its analysis of Iran’s nuclear programme on an acquisition path involving high enriched uranium (HEU). Based on indicators observed by the Agency in connection with Iran’s nuclear activities, the Agency’s work has concentrated on an analysis pertinent to the development of an HEU implosion device.
 
Past Resolutions of the Board of Governors and the Security Council
 
The United Nations Security Council has affirmed that the steps required by the Board of Governors in its resolutions are binding on Iran. Between 2006 and 2010, six Security Council resolutions… In particular, in its resolution of June 2010…concerns about the possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme… all sites, equipment, persons and documents requested by the Agency.
 
Following the issuance of… essential for Iran and the Agency to intensify their dialogue… providing clarifications regarding those issues.
Further to the Director General’s report of August 2012, the Board of Governors, in its resolution of September 2012… restore international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme.
 

Efforts to address the Agency’s concerns since November 2011

 
Structured Approach
 
Between January 2012 and May 2013, the Agency and Iran held ten rounds of talks in Vienna and Tehran… a new approach aimed at ensuring the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme should be developed.
 
Framework for Cooperation
 
On 11 November 2013, the Agency and Iran signed a ‘Joint Statement on a Framework for Cooperation’… proceed with such activities in a step by step manner.
 
Within the Framework for Cooperation… practical measures and technical discussions had been held with the Agency concerning the other two.
On 14 July 2015, the Director General and the Vice-President of Iran and President of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran… strengthen their cooperation and dialogue aimed at the resolution, by the end of 2015, of all past and present outstanding issues that had not already been resolved by the Agency and Iran. The actions agreed under the Road-map are listed in Annex I. {Great, now we need to read Annex I}
Security Council Resolution 2231
 
On 20 July 2015, the Security Council adopted resolution 2231 (2015), in which, inter alia, it reaffirmed that Iran “shall cooperate fully as the IAEA requests to be able to resolve all outstanding issues, as identified in IAEA reports.”
 
Implementation of the Road-map
 
In the Road-map, the Agency and Iran agreed to aim to…the Agency had assessed to be “overall, credible”, as well as information received…which further contributed to the analysis contained in that Annex.
 
As agreed in the Road-map, on 15 August 2015, Iran provided to the Agency its explanations in writing and related documents, on past and present outstanding issues. On 8 September 2015, the Agency submitted questions to Iran on ambiguities regarding the information provided…as a basis for seeking clarification; the Agency’s review of information available…any implications regarding the indicators; and the Agency’s questions.
To remove the ambiguities regarding the information…particular locations of interest to the Agency…15 October 2015.
 
On 20 September 2015, the Director General and Deputy Director General and Head of the Department of Safeguards visited the particular location at the Parchin site of interest to the Agency.
 
All the activities in the Road-map were implemented in accordance with the agreed schedule and, on 24 November 2015, the Agency and Iran held a “wrap up technical meeting” in Vienna.
 
Methodology
 
In November 2011, the Agency provided its “analysis of the information available to it in the context of relevant indicators of the existence or development of processes associated with nuclear-related activities, including weaponization.” Since November 2011, the Agency has acquired more information through activities under the Framework for cooperation, including the Road-map and the JPA, through the Agency’s own efforts, and from Member States, including Iran. As additional information has become available to the Agency, the Agency has been able to refine its analysis of possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme.
 
In order to perform the final assessment, the Agency has analyzed all the information available to it in relation to each of the 12 areas, as set out in the 2011 Annex. The Agency has also used the same information to gain an understanding of the whole picture through consideration of the nature, amount and coherence of the information over time.
 
Area Assessments
 
As previously reported…concentrated on an analysis pertinent to the development of an HEU implosion device.
 
Programme management structure
 
{Iran was using multiple agencies and departments and other subterfuges to conceal their real purposes which we recognized sort of; spread over four tedious paragraphs}
 
Procurement activities
 
As previously reported, Iran has stated that the AEOI encountered difficulties with procurement… {poor babies} …Ministry of Defence Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL), thereby disguising the final user.
 
The Agency also had indications of instances of procurements and attempted procurements of items with relevance, inter alia, to the development of a nuclear explosive device. The Agency does not have information regarding any such procurement attempts after 2007.
 
During discussions with the Agency…Iran confirmed its earlier statements that…made a procurement enquiry about a specific high speed camera, the camera had been for a conventional purpose and, ultimately, Iran had not purchased it. Iran also reiterated its earlier denial that a named company had attempted to acquire high-speed switches.
 
The Agency has not received additional information on this topic since the 2011 Annex.
 
Nuclear material acquisition
 
{Technical garbles which is too rich to summarize as the claims and counters are simply beyond belief and other beyond credulity and the rest far too technical}
 
Nuclear components for an explosive device
 
{More technical garbles}
 
Detonator development
 
{More technical garbles}
 
Initiation of high explosives and associated experiments
 
{More technical garbles which only one of us understands}
 
Hydrodynamic experiments
 
{More technical garbles}
 
Modelling and calculations
 
{More technical garbles}
 
Neutron initiator
 
{Technical garbles but you have to love discussions about nuclear physics}
 
Conducting a test
 
{Technical garbles and as it said, it’s just a test, a physics test}
 
Integration into a missile delivery vehicle
 
{Technical garbles all about miniaturization and the rest is nuts and bolts}
 
Fuzing, arming and firing system
 
{Technical garbles and no there is nothing about detonation-cord}
 
Overall Assessment
 
This overall assessment results from the analysis of all the information available to the Agency in relation to each of the 12 areas, as set out in the 2011 Annex.
 
{More technical garbles}
 
Summary
 
Political and technical Gobbled-y-Goop

 

 

 

Let’s Run Them Up Any Flag Pole and See Who Salutes Them Smartly Showing Your Love of Freedom and Feel Free to Add Your Flag if the Moment Grabs You as You See This Pair of the Flags for Freedom

Let’s Run Them Up Any Flag Pole
and See Who Salutes Them Smartly
Showing Your Love of Freedom
and Feel Free to Add Your Flag
if the Moment Grabs You as You
See This Pair of the Flags for Freedom

 

 

Much of the reports have centered on that the IAEA has found no indications of diversions or of extraordinary mining in or near known uranium mines and that there probably has been no developmental steps taken beyond feasibility and assuring of having acquired the technical ability to produce nuclear weaponry of the nature and suitability the Iranians desired, whatever all that really means. Anyone who expected an arm of the United Nations run largely by third world officials and nuclear physicists whose highest desire was to travel around the world either inspecting third world nuclear sites or attempting to inspect nuclear weapons programs of nations who would just as soon kill as look upon their own people, so you can guess what the worth of an IAEA inspector is worth. The IAEA is also heavily political and not exactly all that enamored with the Western States or Israel and likely more guided by the membership of the General Assembly than the five permanent members in the Security Council. Further, if the people working for the average large city are fairly incompetent and state officials make the city workers look like geniuses, while Federal employees are legendary for their lack of ability, of course all of these have exceptions such as any government worker reading BTC, so you can imagine what any world employees can be in the competence department. The one thing which can be said is the United Nations workers for all of their agencies have some of the most difficult and dangerous jobs when working out in the world as they are often not exactly appreciated by the governments of the nations where they are assigned and often face threats of death simply for attempting to serve others unselfishly and many probably get abuses which they do not deserve. Imagine attempting to distribute aid and food and other sustenance to the people under a dictator who would just as soon see them dead and wants to steal the food supplies and distribute it to his security forces and army which keep him in power and then it becomes no surprise that often the aid is simply unloaded from the ship or aircraft and then left for the dictator to distribute as he desires because it is not worth being murdered in a futile effort. There are reasons that the United States sends troops with their aid shipments. It is true that the United States military should not be used for meals on wheels but sometimes they may be necessary for those performing the meals on wheels distribution to be allowed to actually move the aid. The world is a far from perfect place, something many of us forget or would rather not face as long as it does not affect us and may we continue to live where life is not endangered just because we hold an opinion which others are willing to kill us over.

 

Going to another set of thoughts, something we do here often and what else can be said about an IAEA report we all knew would be a whitewash of the Iranian nuclear program anyways and that is what we likely got. The hope now is that we never reap the ill rewards which are possible should Iran produce and use nuclear weapons or that ever there should come a nuclear war which encompasses a number of nuclear armed nations and a general exchange of nuclear weapons causes a runaway ecological disaster having planetary effects which could only result in consequences too horrid to imagine. Such an event would make most of those post apocalypse movies appear optimistic with the likely exception of “On the Beach” depicted. That was presumably what the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) was designed to prevent and the reason for the IAEA was originally enacted and initiated, but that was when the United Nations member nations were restricted.

 

That was before the fateful decision to allow all nations to enter the United Nations as all nations were equal and should have an equal vote in such a body and the General Assembly was opened to every nation and dictator who desired equal footing with every other nation. Fortunately the original nations who were tasked with fashioning the United Nations kept veto power in the Security Council for the five nuclear powers of the time, or their closest allies thus the United States, Russia, China, Britain, and France were given veto power in the Security Council, the only body which could order the use of military force. That too will soon be surrendered as the world will decide there is nothing special about those five nations and everybody has to be equal. Once the veto for the permanent members has been erased then the seats on the Security Council will be expanded and the fixed memberships will either be expanded beyond reason or abolished making all nations equal in all things and then the United Nations will devolve into chaos and soon will disintegrate under its own equality as the more equal numbers of dictators vote the democracies out of existence under threat of war, of course, after they have demanded and received nuclear technology including weaponization because all nations are of equal value so they should have equal military power and technologies. We will learn that merit has value but it will probably be learned too late. Equality only works between nations who agree on the sanctity of life, have similar value systems and have a free and open society; otherwise you end up with almost two hundred nations who agree on nothing except that there are well over one hundred who wish to drag the wealth from the most wealthy nations even if it destroys the geese with the golden eggs because they want all the golden eggs for themselves in the name of equality. Such a United Nations will be the igniter for a terrible conflagration. Let us pray that the nations with dignity of the human spirit to protect realize their special place and realize it is not rubbing elbows in equality in the putrid bog where leaders disregard or enslave their populations as in such a swamp all sink into the teeming cauldron of inhumanity and such can only work to the detriment of the world as there is enough heartlessness in the world that without freedom loving nations mutually protecting those values all human value will be lost. That is the number one reason for the free world to realize their precious gift and the value of going to whatever lengths required to protect the freedoms from those who would denigrate all human life trampling underfoot the freedoms which by the grace of all that is holy came from the values which have flourished in the Western World and a limited set of other nations who must remain free at all costs. Freedom once lost is almost never regained and especially if it dissolves from the entire planet in a swarming over the free world of a demographic explosion initially necessitated due to a demographic implosion largely fueled by a loss of faith in Hashem.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 9, 2015

The Israeli Iran and Obama Dilemma

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What do you do when you presumed ally’s leader appears to have joined the other side? This is only the tip of the iceberg that Israel and her elected Prime Minister will be facing when the new government is formed sometime this month, possibly towards the end of the month as the forming of a coalition often takes the threat of an impending deadline to alter demands into something more tenable. The Framework Agreement has not made the dilemma any simpler as it appears that every party to the negotiations walked away with a completely different piece of paper or each translation took great amounts of liberty with definitions of the terms. Whatever the actual cause, the statements coming out of Washington D.C. and out of Tehran, Iran appear to be diametric opposites. The classic example is the claim by the Administration in Washington D.C. that the Iranians will be limited to using their slowest, least productive and most problematic centrifuges while the Iranians have had numerous military, civilian and IRGC (Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps) commanders relate that at the date the agreement is signed they will be able to fully implement the use of their advanced IR-8 centrifuges which are twenty-times as productive and reliable as compared to their earliest models. Such gaps in interpretations of the Framework Agreement does not bode well for reaching any desired result in a final agreement with both sides permitted their own so very liberal translations and definition of the terminology. These disparate readings of the Framework Agreement should signal to Secretary of State Kerry and the negotiating team that their attempts to make the wording inconclusive in its desired definitions which has apparently led to such a different take on the Framework Agreement which is probably best served reading the French and European Union versions which are so opaque and generalized using terminology which was technically meaningless leaving the entire document a singular masterpiece in diplospeak doubletalk worthy of a George Orwell novel.

 

The definitions and interpretations are even less worrisome for the Israelis as they probably have yet to receive a copy of the Framework in any language. The one saving grace is that the Israelis do not need to research the Framework and what might be concluded from the disparate interpretations; they need only consider whatever the Iranians believe is the intent. As much as President Obama has raked the United States relationship with Israel over hot coals and through a harvester shredder, the United States President does not pose any threat or difficulty by having a unique definition of the terms in the Framework while whatever the Iranians discern from the document is potentially a direct threat to Israel and her survival. Yes, it is true that the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was chanting “Death to America” right along with the throngs chanting and cheering right along with their leader, the same man also this past weekend called for the destruction of Israel referring to Israel as that “barbaric” Jewish State which “has no cure but to be annihilated.” The Iranian Supreme Leader went on to present a strategy titled “Nine key questions about the elimination of Israel” which was also placed on his Twitter account Saturday night where he used the hashtag of #handsoffalaqsa, an oblique reference to the continuing terrorist riots and other tensions on the Temple Mount especially in reference to the right for Jews and other non-Muslims to pray on the holy site to three religions. The Ayatollah’s plans laid out a political path to replacing Israel completely with an Islamic run state where the Jews and other non-Muslims would necessarily be forced to accept Dhimmitude and a life of constant disgrace and the downtrodden shame as second class citizens living at the grace and good tidings of their Muslim masters. What he left out and even went so far as to claim his plan did not include was the death of the Jews living in the area once the Muslims were granted rule as at any point the Muslim rulers could give the Jews the choice of paying the Jiyza special tax or converting to Islam and eventually at their whim change that choice replacing the Jiyza tax making the new choice between conversion to Islam or death. Should any Jew choose to convert, if any Muslim believed that the Jew was not a true and faithful believer in Islam, they could bring charges which would inevitable result in the death penalty for apostasy. That is the truth behind the nine point plan by the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

 

But there is another bothersome problem which has raised it head some claim as many as four different times. Israel, as an ally, so as not to interfere with or be mistaken for a hostile force, will present any military plans to the United States Pentagon who shares these plans with the White House. Off the top I recall once when it was understood that the Israelis would be granted overflight permission which would include potentially refueling of F-15 and F-16 Fighter-Bombers over Saudi Arabian territories potentially just before launching a raid into Iran and potentially repeating such a refueling on their return flight. This was a quiet, under the radar, under even the kitchen table as this was obviously a super sensitive and secret permission being extended by the Saudis. Any revelation of such permission of such a sensitive and volatile agreement would immediately cause massive denials from both sides and the agreement would crash and burn. Not all that surprising but that was exactly what occurred at some point before said raid was launched when somehow the news of this agreement between Saudi Arabian rulers and Israel leaked to the press with in the aftermath it becoming obvious that the leak originated not with the Pentagon but with either the White House or the State Department, which it actually was is irrelevant as the real source of the leak was much closer if not actually to the top man in the White House. Months upon months later there was an arrangement for Israel to lease a pair of derelict unused military airfields in Azerbaijan which both lay a short distance north of Iran. The agreement might have been for these airbases to solely be used in cases of emergency such as a damaged or short on fuel fighter jet needed a landing point for repair or refueling as they would otherwise not be capable of making the entire return trip to Israel from their mission over Iran. Once again there was a leak that Azerbaijan was working with and assisting the Israelis on a potential attack on the Iranian nuclear sites. Needless to say but the complete rejection of there being such a plan was claimed and sworn to by both sides. Again the leak was traced back to the White House. Obviously Israel has a problem informing the United States about any plans to address the Iranian nuclear program in a manner separate from the Framework or any negotiated agreement but rather a more direct approach.

 

There is another problem with the United States when it would come for Israel to launch an assault on the Iranian nuclear sites or any other targets which might be included in such a scenario, and that is the fact that there are probably always two aircraft carriers and the airbase at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and within range of any Israeli attack route on Iran. These United States assets matter because it has also been rumored that the United States forces in the region have orders to intercept the Israelis and force them to return to their bases in Israel or face being shot out of the air. The actual leaked information stated that the United States pilots were to make it as difficult as possible but not to shoot at the Israeli aircraft first but to sweep them from the skies as soon as one fired at a United States aircraft or ship. These intercepts were to be taken over Iraqi airspace which is technically under United States security until the Iraqi Air Force is competent enough to do the job themselves. Needless to point out that the most direct route for Israeli aircraft would take them over Jordanian airspace followed by Iraq airspace and in reverse order upon their return to Israel. A further problem might exist within the Israeli political and military command and personnel where there are those who firmly believe that nothing Israeli has plans to do should be attempted until they receive affirmation of their plans by the United States. In many cases that person is also a member of the Prime Minister’s inner security Cabinet. One such was Defense Minister Ehud Barak who was feeding intelligence and all plans in detail directly to the White House and quite possibly directly to President Obama. Odds are this was done with the knowledge of Prime Minister Netanyahu and it is possible or even likely that it was Bibi Netanyahu who has ordered the exchange of information, especially on plans for attacks on the Iranian nuclear sites.

 

This leads to the current Israeli dilemma on what path to take and whether any or every plan should be shared with Israeli allies. Israeli leadership does need to take under consideration the obvious fact that President Obama has an apparent amorous desire to complete a deal with Iran and nurture said plan while building up the Iranian power granting them recognition and respect while protecting the Iranians from threats of a military address to destroy their nuclear program by preventing that option from being taken off the table and put into practice. It appears that President Obama and his closest advisors not only seek to empower Iran granting them hegemonic powers throughout the Middle East and even into South East Asia, Northern Africa and Eastern Europe, surpassing Israeli powers in similar areas, and completing this shakeup and restructuring of the Middle East, the President seems set on pressing Israel to take steps President Obama sees as the solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict even if those steps end up being performed unilaterally and result in Hamas or ISIS taking control over Judea and Samaria (West Bank) and causing a direct threat to the Israeli heartlands where close to three-quarters of her citizens reside and an even higher percentage of her infrastructure, industry, manufacturing, commercial and service industries exist. Pulling back to the borders envisioned by President Obama would return Israel to the borders which would permit any attack on Israel from Judea and Samaria to cut Israel completely in half isolating the Galilee from the Negev and destroying and occupying a quarter of Israel simply by advancing the approximately the diameter of the Washington D.C. Capital Beltway which is just a smidge over nine miles. That is the width of the central neck of Israel should she be forced back to the Green Line, the pre-June 1967 Six Day War. As modern artillery is capable of firing well beyond ten miles with great effect and accuracy, simply mounting artillery batteries almost anywhere in western Judea and the Arab forces could systematically destroy all of central Israel within a single twenty-four hour period. Israel would not need fear an attack by missiles from Iran when artillery from Iran would do just as well if not better and cost far less. This would be the biggest gift President Obama could grant Iran, even better than the ambiguous Framework and the agreement to follow. This was why it was assumed even in the United Nations that Israel would be allowed to retain the lands of Judea and Samaria and any refugees would be settled within the country where they were located and considered an even treatment as Israel absorbed many hundreds of thousands refugees from Middle Eastern and North African Arab and Muslim states by 1960 as these were Jews chased from their homes and towns where they had resided often for over fifteen-hundred-years, some even over two-thousand-years.

 

All those who have been claiming that all Israel has to worry about is surviving the remainder of President Obama’s term in the White House, this is far from true. Israel is facing so numerous threats of annihilation and from so many directions that it is almost impossible to get one’s arms around it. Even Egypt and Jordan, two nations which have made their peace with Israel and now reside with frosty borders and relations, have at least kept those borders peaceful. There are even those occasions where Israel will take steps to aid Jordan and Egypt and they, mostly Egypt, have been known to take measures which assist Israeli survival. The greatest example of such cooperation has been the enforcement by the Egyptians of their own embargo and strict rules enforced for passage through the Rafah Gate into the Sinai Peninsula from Gaza. This is not done by Egypt completely out of friendship as much as it is due to the assistance that Hamas provides the terrorist groups located in the Sinai Peninsula who attacks Egyptian soldiers, border guards, and even attack Egyptian resorts located in the Sinai Peninsula along the coast of the Red Sea. The truth is Iran is also a threat to Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and all of the other Arab Sunni nations with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and so on. Currently the Iranian threat and control has spread to some very challenging areas where they threaten far more than Israel. Iran is openly supplying arms and also IRGC soldiers to Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad along with Hezballah terrorist forces from Lebanon allowing al-Assad to survive against ISIS and the other rebel groups. Iran has great influence over the Shia majority in Iraq and is assisting the fighting again ISIS in Iraq. This is not entirely altruistic as it is a definitive possibility, some might say inevitability, that ISIS has plans for engaging Iran directly at some point once it gets control over Iraq.

 

Furthermore, Iranian backed Houthis are moving directly across Yemen and have already swept the United States backed government from the capital and disbanded replacing themselves as the rulers of Yemen. Yemen is doubly important as it furthers the Iranian encirclement of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. Their reaching the southwest corner of Yemen gives Iran control of the Bab el Mandeb Strait (Arabic: باب المندب‎) which translates as “Gateway of Anguish”, or “Gateway of Tears” and is important because it connects through its narrow waterway the exit from the Red Sea, which includes all shipments from the Israeli port of Eilat and the Jordanian port of al-Aqabah and ships passing southward through the Suez Canal, into the Gulf of Aden and on to the Arabian Sea and the east coast of Africa or on to the Indian Ocean and all of Asia. This would be an additional maritime choke point which matches well with their ability to shut down the Straits of Hormuz which is the choke point for the Persian Gulf through to the Gulf of Oman and on to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean with passing through the straits what is claimed to be at least one-third of the world’s oil. Should Iran ever close both of these points then international trade would be greatly hampered and Europe would basically have to take the old route around the Cape of Good Hope or across the Atlantic Ocean and through the Panama Canal and across the Pacific Ocean which would be longer but some might believe it provides safer waterways. Still, closing these two passages would still bring much of maritime trade to a screeching halt while greatly increasing shipping times and place a burden on retail outlets to raise their prices on many if not all imported goods.

 

Finally, the biggest threat of an nuclear armed Iran is the threats posed to Israel and other nations of a nuclear armed Saudi Arabia, a nuclear armed Egypt with the potential to have the Muslim Brotherhood return to power, a nuclear armed Turkey, Syria, Hezballah, al-Qaeda, nuclear armed UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and who knows who else as terror elements gain access to nuclear weapons supplied by their state sponsors such as Iran or Saudi Arabia. The spread of nuclear armed states spreading throughout the Muslim world might inspire and motivate other nations to begin their own nuclear armed program and they might receive assistance from other new nuclear powers. The fact is that a nuclear armed Iran would forever alter the balances of power everywhere. We very well might need to adjust to a world without any restraints on who can have nuclear weapons and it simply becomes anybody with the cash to finance their breakout point making it realistic for every nation who really desires such weapons. Of course if your neighbor decides to join the nations with nuclear weapons stockpiles and then another neighbor announced their advanced program and claims to have developed thermo-nuclear devices, hydrogen bombs, and has produced a number of those in their stockpile, how long before the nation, now surrounded by nuclear armed neighbors, makes the only logical decision they can for their future survival they begin their own nuclear weapons research and development. As we pointed out in our April 7, 2015, article titled Historic Lessons and Future Nuclear War where we traced some of the super weapons through the ages as man developed from clubs to thermonuclear devices which can level whole cities or destroy only the electronic infrastructure bring a nation to its knees, we realized that there has never been the development of a super weapon which was not used, sometimes these weapons made such a difference that it decided which trail the human genome traveled from that one crucial super weapon for that warfare. We also found that often the super weapon from the last war is the standard for weapons used in the next war and thus one can only deduce that there will be a future war where some form of nuclear weapon will be used on the battlefield which may easily lead to an exchange of nuclear weapons which might be misinterpreted as a launch and use their nuclear weapons against their enemies while they are still able and the spread continues from this one episode to a conflagration which would be immeasurable. All this might be the eventuality after Iran becomes a nuclear armed state and it spreads through the Arab and Muslim worlds and from there beyond spanning the globe. Perhaps holding such power under one’s control will temper their arrogances and put their pride and conceits in perspective and nation shall choose to no longer lift their sword against their neighbor as war might then draw too large a cost to even be imagined. But what about the terrorist entities of which there are a number who are supplied by Iran which include Hezballah and Hamas, both of which border Israel and have started conflicts using every weapon they could muster. What will be the result if these entities are given access to nuclear weapons which they could then use against Israeli cities? Additionally, Iran has been attempting to gain favor and supply Fatah and Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestinian Authority which occupy Judea, Samaria and have access to all of Jerusalem and control the Temple Mount through the use of civil disturbances and rioting. Should Fatah receive a nuclear device it would not be impossible to place it in a vehicle, likely a stolen vehicle from within Israel and sporting Israeli citizen plates granting it free travel with relative ease. Such a situation could result in such a device being set to detonate right outside the Knesset Parliament Building and possibly even timed to coincide with a second device being set-off in central Tel Aviv. Such an attack would leave Israeli little choice but to strike back and to do so with the ferocity of a wounded mother protecting her children as that would be exactly what Israel would be engaged in, protecting those Children of Israel who had survived despite having much of her heart torn from within her. Never Again also meant that we would never allow the Masada ending to be played out again and no longer would Israel sit still to be carved-up by her neighbors, Never Again!

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 14, 2015

Obama Promises Kept and Cashed by Iran

Filed under: Absolutism,Act of War,Administration,Alberto Nisman,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Argentina,Argentine-Israeli Mutual Association (AMIA),Bashir al-Assad,Benyamin Netanyahu,Binding Resolution,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Buenos Aires,Calaphate,China,Civilization,Commander in Cheif,Condemning Israel,Conflict Avoidnce,Congress,Consequences,Coverup,Defend Israel,Ditherer in Chief,Egypt,Elections,EMP Device,Executive Order,Forced Solution,Foreign Aid,GCC,Government,Gulf Co-operation Council,Hate,History,House of Representatives,IAEA,Inspections,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,IRGC,ISIS,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Israeli Interests,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jihad,John Boehner,John Kerry,Lebanon,Leftist Pressures,Middle East,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Muslim World,North Korea,Nuclear Option,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,P5+1,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,Prime Minister,Russia,Russian Pressure,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secretary of State,Senate,Speaker of the House,Supreme Leader,Syria,The Twelfth Imam,Threat of War,Tri Border Region,Turkey,Twelvers,United Nations Presures,United States,Uranium Enrichment,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,World War III,World Without Zionism or America,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 3:23 AM
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“We will extend a hand if you are unwilling to unclench your fist” President Obama proclaimed in his inaugural address in January 2009. Iran heeded these words and now that President Obama had run the entire gamete and though he won the White House twice, he managed to lose the Congress entirely and the Republicans now hold both houses. That probably is the least of the tactical problems facing President Obama in completing his desired handshake with Iran forging a relationship he sees as lasting into eternity as the two powers divide the world between them. The problem is that Iran never has unclenched their fist. But even this is of no concern as Iran has done the next best thing. Iran has used that clenched fist and pummeled President Obama so severely that he now sees that clenched fist as a hand extended for a warm, friendly handshake as the two nations appear to have reached a surrender scheduled for announcement on or before March 24. This agreement will probably allow Iran to retain at least twelve-thousand operative centrifuges and retain the remaining seven-thousand as spares to replace any that fail. Further, Iran will be permitted to replace these centrifuges in use for newer and faster centrifuges as they develop them. All inspections will be placed in the hands of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) who will set an inspection schedule in cooperation with Iran. That should work out really well.

 

The big question for President Obama is will he be able to salvage even the slightest victory from this deal. The potential would be better if he had any cards to play and even knew how to play them. Still, he still had hope as the Iranians may very well see allowing the United States to return and reopen their embassy in Tehran to be to their advantage. Such a move would allow President Obama to at last claim his big legacy building event with his signing an agreement for the return of the United States embassy and opening relations with Iran and declaring the possibilities for how together the United States and Iran could work and stabilize the Middle East. Such an alliance would turn the entire current Middle East structure on its head. Such a move would place the United States in Iran’s corner against Israel and Saudi Arabia. Such an alliance would probably include Turkey as Erdogan will bend in whichever direction best serves him while still working behind everyone’s back to serve his own purposes, just as he has aided the American efforts against ISIS allowing their use of the airfield in Turkey while also allowing ISIS to run recruitment efforts and resupply efforts crossing into Syria from within Turkey. The real question is whether the rest of the Middle East and potentially beyond can stomach such a deal as President Obama is obviously ready and willing to grant the Iranians pertaining to their nuclear program. Facing what can only be described as President Obama rolling over for Iran, it is no wonder that Israeli Prime Minister has been willing to face the blitz of forces turning against him in blatant support of President Obama.

 

The real problem and the possible fate that all efforts are already too little, too late is what is facing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as he will be speaking to the combined houses of the United States Congress sometime early in March presenting any information which Israeli intelligence is willing to share and probably even more intelligence later in private meetings before committees and probably some individual meetings which might be requested. The strife and scorn being unloaded on the Prime Minister with the fraudulent claim that he blindsided the President by accepting the invitation by Speaker of the House Boehner before the White House had been notified must be unbearable and only made worse as the New York Times noted that both the Speaker of the House and Prime Minister Netanyahu had spoken with the White House before the invitation was offered and before the Prime Minister agreed to speak. President Obama has spared nothing to try and discredit everybody and anybody in an effort to make the speech of secondary importance to the insult thus voiding anything presented. That leaves the question of what can anybody do to blunt the overt display attempting to make the entire affair, the speech included, disregarded and relegated to the trash bin of irrelevancy, making it all about insulting the President and otherwise meaningless. Meanwhile in Israel, the leftist media and the ill named pairing of Hatnua with Labor as the ‘Zionist Camp,’ two far leftist, post-Zionist, post-modernist, anti-capitalist, redistributionist parties are only exceeded in their leaning by the communists and in a close tie to the far leftist Meretz.

 

I have rolled ideas around in my head and nothing, absolutely nothing came to mind, until I got a flash which has to be one of the most ridiculous lines the Prime Minister might use at the start of his speech and then hope he gets either a fair amount of laughter or at least some meager appreciation from what will potentially be a rough house; he might try saying, “I have not come here to bury President Obama but to praise him.” After that, should he not get a response, then the only thing left is the old Henny Youngman line which was later used to great fanfare by Rodney Dangerfield, “I don’t get no respect, I tell ya.” After that the Prime Minister will need to rely on the facts and a somber telling of the potentially dire results if Iran is permitted to reach breakout level as before they could be prevented from going fully nuclear they could easily make their breakout by building ten, twelve or even more devices, all of which would be deliverable on their ballistic missiles including their newest ICBM capable of striking anywhere on the globe. The numbers of weapons they might originally make is dependent only on the amount of LEU (lowly enriched uranium) at about 3% they had accumulated which they would be permitted to enrich under current agreements and would very likely continue with only the amount under debate, providing the monitoring could actually track the amount and none was stashed beyond inspection sites. It is believed that the latest centrifuges Iran is currently putting into service they can reach HEU (highly enriched uranium) of above 90%, which is easily made into weapons without further enrichment, in one cascade easily within their current capabilities. What the United States also needs to consider is that the Iranians have also launched suborbital devices which traversed an orbital vector from Iran which would place their satellite if placed on a more powerful launch system, such as the one recently pictured by Israeli surveillance satellites, would approach the United States mainland from the south and taking it on the perfect trajectory to avoid the United States antimissile systems and at a height perfect to deploy a nuclear EMP device, one similar to the device tested by the North Koreans and suspected of being a test carried out on an Iranian device to test its yield and potential as an EMP device. The device in question was detected and assessed to have reached a yield of approximately 16 kilotons, a higher range EMP capable measurement. This piece of information need not be interjected by the Prime Minister as these facts have been readily available and suspected though unprovable for quite some time.

 

The presentation and reception for Prime Minister Netanyahu will define the options and possibly the necessities of Israeli actions in the near future and beyond. It is probably already too late to prevent Iran from having the wherewithal and the technology mastered to produce nuclear weapons, the only debate left is how to minimize their abilities to actually produce such weapons. Everything being debated and covered is performed assuming that Iran did not manage to produce and stash any nuclear devices already and are also being pursued without any knowledge of how far and how deep the cooperation and collaboration between North Korea and Iran has developed not to mention potential assistance from China or Russia, all of which would not be beyond question. Perhaps the only thing that is in question is not whether or not Iran will break into the nuclear armed nations club uninvited or invited, depending on your assessment of President Obama and the P5+1 negotiations actual aim, but how soon and how they will be received. Much of that will depend on the Iranians themselves. If they continue their rhetoric calling for the annihilation of Israel and of every Jew on the planet and holding annual conventions titled, “A World Without Zionism and America” and continue to be the largest terror facilitating nation on Earth, then there will be great trepidation and uncertainty. Many nations will be looking for somebody else to take whatever intervention which will end the Iranian threat before Iran decides the time is right to force their hand and hegemony over the Middle East.

 

The question everybody will be asking themselves and discussing in hushed tones in back rooms and with quick furtive glances and knowing winks and nods, nervously pondering when will the first shoe drop knowing that after that the second shoe will fall right behind. The debates will be where the first Iranian move will be, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United States? Who will they empower to possibly utilize nuclear terrorism and where would such terror strike? Will it be Hezballah, the Houthis tribal fighters, or providing some assignment in the Americas deployed out of the Tristate Area in South America where a terror city sits adjoining the borders of Paraguay, Brazil, and Argentina and none of the three security forces dare intervene? It was from here that the attacks in Buenos Aries in 1992 where the Israeli Embassy was struck by a pickup truck driven by a suicide bomber and loaded with explosives destroyed the Israeli Embassy, a Catholic church, and a nearby school building killing four Israelis and twenty-five Argentinian civilians making it the worst terror attack in Argentinian history until when a second terrorist attack was launched on the AMIA (Argentine Israelite Mutual Association) which murdered eighty-five people making it the worst terror attack in Argentina and over which the prosecutor Alberto Nisman was recently murdered (More can be read about his murder in the articles, The Death of Alberto Nisman, Prosecutor’s Fate Mirrors Western Culture and Hezballah Cross Border Attack Threatens to Elevate Conflict). There have been intelligence reports which claim that Hezballah from the Tristate Area have made agreements arranging for gaining access into the United States with the aid of the drug cartels. These reports also claim that this agreement has allowed terror cells to have already been implanted within the United States who would be ready to assist in any plans communicated to them and would even be capable of assisting any new force and weapons provided such as explosives or worse. Whatever the choice a nuclear armed Iran chooses, even should they decide to use conventional weapons likely in a terror bombing attack relying on their nuclear threat to prevent any retaliation against their terror interests such as Hezballah or other forces even including the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps), in what they decide to do once they have attained nuclear weapons capability and production they will have an entire new set of avenues, as other nations, if not nuclear armed, will have little recourse against Iranian hegemony.

 

This will very likely press the rest of the Middle East and other Muslim nations to research and produce their own nuclear weapons armaments in order to even the military leverage thus removing the Iranian advantage as soon as possible. Once the Iranians gain nuclear weapons production, the amount of time that Iran will be capable of forcing their will due to their nuclear threat will be short as Saudi Arabian wealth and agreement with Pakistan would result in their attaining nuclear capability within weeks, not years. Egypt and Turkey would also not take an extended amount of time to reach nuclear weapons capability and Jordan might do the unthinkable, reach an agreement with Israel in the form of a mutual defense pact, and if Israel was not willing, then Jordan would definitely seek admission to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) seeking the protection of Saudi Arabia. A fully nuclear armed Middle East and North Africa would present a certainty of an eventual nuclear exchange, the sole question being between which two nations initiate the conflagration and what the further conflicts and spread of nuclear fallout would be spawned by such aggressions. Whatever the future holds, a nuclear armed extended Middle East would be the most dangerous situation ever seen in Earth’s history, a very dangerous situation which would be playing the most dangerous standoff of nuclear armed nations who have little knowledge or history of the destructive and horrifying nature of nuclear warfare and its aftermath. Some of the leaders of these newly nuclear capable nations have no concern of consequences and only their victory by any means necessary, the most dangerous kind of nation to have nuclear capability. The world will be looking at an unknown but dangerous future which all but guarantees a holocaust of unpredictable numbers and incalculable ramifications should oil fields be made unusable, maritime channels made unpassable or simply carnage and ramifications unthinkable and unknown in all of history until that fateful date. Perhaps the question which needs to be asked of us for consideration is what happens in the immediate aftermath and on into the future, if there is a future?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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