Beyond the Cusp

May 22, 2016

General Election General Feelings Deadly Deal

 

If one goes by the normal general election numbers and stick to what the election gurus and political pundits all know is the gospel truth, then Donald Trump and any Republican Presidential candidate is a lost cause. This is because if one takes the “known” and steady trended Democrat and Republican states electoral vote Hillary has a definitive advantage which would be near impossible to topple. Here are a few examples you can check for yourselves:
This excerpt was taken and quoted from In A Clinton-Trump Race, Just How Much Could The Map Change?, which contains numerous other statistics and suggestions of alternate paths other than ours which follows.

 

It’s the number of electoral votes of 18 states (plus the ever-blue District of Columbia) that have voted Democratic in each of the last six presidential elections. And it leaves a Democratic nominee just a Florida-shy (29 electoral votes) of winning the presidency.
Those 18 states (worth a collective 242 electoral votes): California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, only 13 states (worth a collective 103 electoral votes) have voted Republican each of the last six times: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah and Wyoming.

 

Additional information, numbers and stock predictions and analysis can be read in Trump seemed impervious during the primaries, but forecasts for electoral votes paint a bleak picture.

 

Presidential Electoral Map 2016

Presidential Electoral Map 2016

 

Now, let us return back to the more unseen elsewhere BTC analysis and path forward. We do not doubt any of these dire predictions and numbers analyzed from trends and other variables, and that is the main word, variables, as they vary. Change is the one guarantee in politics. President Reagan changed the trending tides in the 1980 elections. William Jefferson Clinton took on an impossible to win challenge and changed the tide back followed by George W. Bush and then President Obama who has placed us at this election, one with no actual candidate running for their reelection to the Presidency, with President Obama being prevented running by the Constitution as Amended in Amendment XXII. Finally, a Constitutional limit President Obama appears to be stuck fulfilling. So there is Queen Hillary the Prevaricator and Clown Trump the Irreverent as the two main party candidates essentially from which to choose. Conventional wisdom predicts that Hillary has the election in the bag with her automatic Democratic Party states all but guaranteed while Trump is seen as vulnerable in even the most conservative and natural strongholds of Republican power such as Oklahoma and Wyoming. Our suggestion is adapt a campaign for Trump to win while those coaching Hillary will send her mostly to four or maybe five states with the top three being Ohio, Pennsylvania and the most crucial, Florida. It is said that no candidate can win without Florida. But is all this as sewn up as the mainstream pundits and analyzers and even campaign chiefs claim. If that is their thinking then the United States had best become very comfortable with the sound of President Hillary Clinton for eight years and Democrats into the future as far as anybody can predict. We all know that politics are a whole lot more volatile than that prediction or the Whig Party would still be in the White House and almost all the Presidents would be from Virginia as that was the trend early on.

 

Donald Trump, who is the candidate we will mostly address as his is the more difficult Presidency to wring out electorally, will need to challenge the punditry and experts from the start. Sure the first state he could talk from might be Florida following the wisdom that no candidate wins without Florida. If he does his next two stops should be touted as his message to America on how to unite everybody around a true moderate who will choose solid middle of the road people for his advisors from New York and California. He could list people such as Ben Carson for Surgeon General and other such calm, intelligent and well established and accepted experts in a number of second tier Cabinet Posts. Trump should easily know of people who would accept an appointment to Secretary of Labor, Commerce and Health and Human Services and even Secretary of Defense, a top tier position where he would have any number of retired military people from which to choose. The rationale behind naming these people and appointments with them present would calm the populace and defuse the claims that he is impossible and would be wild and out of control where these appointments would show reason and solid advice. That along with a more restrained and intelligently packaged Trump, with the same bravado, but this time turning top these appointees as his Brain Trust would settle his picture for those watching, and would be gobbled up by an ever hungry media, as this would be against all past trends for a campaign to name appointees early in the campaign. Such names would also point out the due diligence Trump had to have used in making these choices and planning ahead. Something he is claimed to not possess is such planning which is how he built skyscrapers across his properties. He plans, that should have been obvious, but apparently voters are a suspicious lot or totally clueless and need to be spoon fed, neither is a positive assessment.

 

Clinton vs Trump

Clinton vs Trump

 

Actually it would be these challenges in New York and California that once either of these states races tighten in polling, and trust us, they would, then Hillary would have to run there and campaign in frantic and shrillary tones for which she is famous. Watching her changing to adapt to match the location and often slipping into the wrong ones, would be great entertainment. The thinking is that with his business connections and dealings he could challenge Hillary in New York as the northern three-quarters of the state is fairly conservative and it is just New York City that tilts the state Democrat and he could crack that open as there must be a large number of middle of the road normally Democrat voters who could be swayed from Hillary with a decent effort. Even New Jersey might be playable though that is highly doubtful but a few trips into the northern end of the State might bleed support across in The City.

 

California, on the other hand, has a sizeable conservative area of voters who are likely sick of the water wars played by President Obama on the state when they were in a dire need and he all but cut off water to the state. Add in the numbers of Hollywood actors, directors, producers and the like who Trump could get to campaign for him and this along with Trump’s affability on the stump would put California in play. Face facts, no Democrat wins the Presidency without both New York and California in this modern era and both have more than enough electoral delegates to sink Florida off the map and put Trump into the White House. People can point to all the negatives they want, Trump in the White House would send a message which would terrorize the enemies of America and freedom. Our friends would be able to sleep at night knowing that the United States had their backs and was under sane foreign policy again and this message would be carried by the people who decide for Trump which way is up and which way is forward and allow him to choose a mix of the two. If we have Trump pegged, he would challenge these advisors to go out and make it ‘YUGE” and fulfill every last one of the up and forward policy proposals.

 

Trump could have Senator Cruz lock down Texas and possibly Oklahoma as well, and he could play off of Rubio or Jeb Bush if they refused to back and assist in his campaign and add them to the campaign to augment any plans already in the works as neither one has proven to be as effective as they viewed themselves. They would still be a plus as they are original combatants who had said less than flattering charges against The Donald. Perhaps we should reiterate our lack of a dog in this race. Should any of our dual citizen people even cast votes in the election, for whom and why has not reached the floor for debate as of yet except for a Congressman who is facing a challenge from the Republican elites, imagine we would like such a down to earth, home grown, religious, and independent conservative who votes almost identically as we would on every major and minor issues. Individual bills, we trust his sense and judgement, but he was no on amnesty, close the border, support traditional friends and generally right down the line. Our votes for President would likely prefer a ‘none of the above’ choice, as we stated here in We Need a None of the Above Election Ballot and originally around four years earlier, there is something about that four year thing that we cannot quite put our finger on…something about a White House?, anyways, back then we wrote Can I Vote “None of the Above”? Seems we will be revisiting that idea in 2020 or there about. I have a feeling this year ‘None of the Above’ could easily defeat either candidate and might even clear fifty percent which would have been a fabulous message to send about the choices we have been given in these farcical elections.

 

Unfortunately, the choices are what they are and we honestly believe that Donald Trump could tear away either or both New York and California and should try for a few other considered true blue Democrat states and at the least turn them purple. His efforts in such states could, and likely would, bring benefits in downstream elections and potentially swing a few elections to the Republicans where voter turnout has been lackadaisical in the recent past. Let’s face it, true conservatives have not had all that to vote for but voting against this year had a definite appeal beyond past years. Even some on the left feel they must oppose the Shrillary. Imagine four State of the Union addresses as well as numerous, ‘We can feel your pain, Bill and I,’ and ‘Our fellow Americans, in this time of upheaval, Bill and I…’ or, ‘It is my duty as your President to ignore Congress and the Supreme Court and continue to…’ What the ending commentary will be to those phrases, and these phrases are coming and they might very well be those exact phrases, is more Pablum which the media and masses sup upon. Which can do the least damage to an already all but terminally injured America limping forward in need of a transfusion of popularism and we have the Screech and the Jolly Joker as our candidates. This trend has been a set of elections for leader of the Free World which has devolved sinking ever lower with every election and the winning choice turning into ever greater disasters. Where it will end is obvious even to the most casual of observer. Continuing this downward spiral will become the death spiral leading to the next great upheaval which will blast the memory of any previous conflict from our collective memories.

 

There are one of two directions which the world might take in continuing to hurl itself at an ever faster pace towards that aforementioned conflagration where the United States, to quote a famous movie quote, may “Turn to the Dark Side Luke,” thus it becomes a force for evil. Another direction is where the United States and advanced Western World collapses and in the Far East begins the next Great War. This conflict between them and the remaining forces in the remains of Europe and across North America and most of Africa turns its forces to its east and rides into battle for Allah as the accursed Buddhists remain to be conquered now that Christianity has been subjected and surrendered to the Prophet and his deity, Allah. Neither future is attractive which is why we pray for the souls of America to activize and save their great nations and return the world to sanity. The only other choice after Europe succumbs, which she may not suffer herself to actually allow, and the United States is set upon next and also succumbs, leaves only Israel. Tiny little one or two Iranian super weapon strikes away from oblivion and being wiped from the map, Israel and her superior anti-missile technology and the faith in Hashem, will that once again be sufficient to save all? Where it ends is unknown to all but Hashem and all we can do is to carry out that we were meant to perform, not one step less. Oh, and if you can carry more, do so. Simple enough, but seemingly forgotten in this age of connectivity replacing activity, and concentration on the little screen replacing execution of the essentials around us in our lives, leads us into the darkness while we refuse to look up and notice. Perhaps this might be a rant for another article.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 7, 2012

Super Tuesday and My Opinion for What it’s Worth

We are looking at a night where the presumed authorities all said that the only primary which counted was Ohio as all the others were preordained by early predictions. So, what does the virtual tie which will split the delegates almost right down the middle mean in the long look at the race? We learned that you can buy a victory, something I am personally very familiar with from my one dip in the wading pool of national politics. My third party candidacy for the House of Representatives, the one in Washington DC, I lost in the vote count but won if you determined number of votes per dollar spent on the campaign. My friends tell me even getting on the ballot was a victory which is more comforting today than back then. But after comparing that my two opponents spent a combined amount in excess of $5,000,000.00 against my huge outlay of $33,000 you find my spending was a less than 0.75% of what was spent. Somehow I received just over 3% of the vote, kind of embarrassing but I can still claim to have gotten more votes for my dollar. Granted, Mitt Romney is outspending Rick Santorum and the rest of the candidates by somewhat less than my opponents outspent my campaign, but over 10 to 1 is a significant difference for such a minor victory. Romney does not have much to crow about.

 

The real story so far in this primary campaign season has been the coverage of the race more than the races themselves and the trial of using proportional representation in many states in assigning their delegates. The proportional delegate assignments is going to be a real plus should this be continued as it will force closer races to actually be represented as such instead of the race being done on super Tuesday. Tonight the talking heads are trying to make the slight Romney win as a sign of the end of the race making him the odds on favorite if not already nominated Republican candidate. The delegate count is nowhere near at a point where anybody is even within sight of the needed count to win the nomination on the first ballot. Yet, I keep listening to these talking heads telling me to go to bed and not bother with the election until November. The only thing I can relate is it is not over and the fat lady has not even been out on the stage as of yet. Should Romney continue and actually win the nomination solely dependent on his deep pockets and disproportional spending and still only manage squeakers splitting the delegates almost sown the middle, how can he expect to beat President Obama who will easily outspend the Republican candidate similarly to Romney’s primary strategy. Considering the investment one would expect Mitt Romney to easily be winning 65% or even 75% of the votes and thus winning entire delegate counts from these states, not sharing evenly with a candidate that was all but unheard from just a few weeks ago. The talk at the front end of these primaries generated questions as to why Rick Santorum had not simply taken the hint and gone home, yet now we are discussing Rick Santorum as making a race out of these primaries and there may still be a few more surprises in store for the talking heads. Much may depend on whether or not Newt Gingrich continues on through to the very end. To be fair, the other way to stop Mitt Romney might be for Santorum to drop out giving his delegates to Newt Gingrich, or they could both drop out and give their delegates to Ron Paul. I think we all know that Ron Paul is in the race to the very bitter end. My hope is that the race soon becomes a three candidate race though I will not hold my breath.

 

The most important singular item is the proportional assignment of delegates which is going to prolong this race well beyond this week. Without this change we would not even be discussing the Republican primaries as it really would be just about all over. By going to a more representative delegate system the Republicans have very likely stretch out the campaign and will thus achieve exactly what was the aim, more people having their say count and the race going much deeper into the primaries. The talk about a bartered Republican Convention was all the talk early on and predicted to be a definite possibility. This prediction was assessed back before even the Iowa caucuses and has proven to have been a premature fear that is no longer likely. The assignment of delegates has run fairly even between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum with Newt Gingrich holding a small share of delegates. Well, guess now all we can do is wait and watch. With any luck it will continue to be, if nothing else, informative and anything but boring. So far it has been anything but predictable as we have watched a parade in which we went through every candidate as the non-Romney and only time will tell if any more grand changes in the tides of battle are in the future.

 

The last item from Super Tuesday came from the caucus in North Dakota. Mitt Romney was predicted to take that caucus by many due to his greater sized organization. Something went horribly wrong according to the reports I heard and Rick Santorum was chosen in the North Dakota caucus. The race continues and sooner or later we will know who will be chosen to be the Republican candidate to run against President Obama this fall. The final win count for Super Tuesday was Romney with 5, Santorum with 3, and Gingrich with 1. As close as those numbers are, the delegate counts will, once all has settled out and been computed, be even closer between the two leaders, Santorum and Romney. At least it has not been a clean sweep as last primary cycle otherwise I would have one less subject to write about.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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