Trump, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel

 

Mark Langfan wrote a very insightful article reflecting on what the lasting effects of President Trump’s firing of John Bolton and how this could lead to Trump not being reelected. Of course, the final repercussions from letting John Bolton go will play out in ways that none of us will likely get completely correct. As Mr. Langfan points out, with Bolton out of the administration, the voice for stronger actions even unto direct attacks on Iran has been silenced. This is not to infer that there are no other voices purporting for stronger reactions to Iranian belligerent actions. We had pointed out that there was an uneasy relationship between President Trump and his advisor John Bolton as Trump prefers to find economic solutions rather than resorting to using the military and Bolton was far more militaristic having no qualms about resorting to force. We had mentioned reports of heated arguments between the two men as their views were about as far apart and different as possible. But Mr. Langfan was correct in stating that John Bolton served a potentially precious purpose, he was the stick always in the ready countering the carrot dangling Trump making any implied Trump threats of using force more credible. Whether Mr. Langfan’s conclusion that the Iranian attack on the Saudi oil fields and that we can expect more Iranian perfidy and violent attacks on Saudi Arabia may or may not come to fruition depending on numerous factors which we will try and explore.

 

There are credible rumors that after the elections in Israel, and assuming that a government is formed led by incumbent Bibi Netanyahu, President Trump will propose a mutual defense pact between Israel and the United States. The problem is that should Prime Minister Netanyahu be able to form the next Israeli government, he would be predisposed towards accepting such an agreement. Anyone reading our last article would likely see some of the plethora of reasons for Israel to refuse such an offer. We understand that such a position would be difficult to defend by most standards, but here goes. We have one reason and only require this one reason. We have no problem forging agreements with supportive nations for the supply of military hardware, weapons, aircraft, armor, ammunition and other munitions and bombs but we would draw the line on allowing a single soldier from any other nation coming to fight alongside our IDF. The reason is relatively obvious to anyone who has felt the sting of Judeophobia (anti-Semitism). We hold a fear that should American young people come and fight to aid Israel should a war, or should we say when a war breaks out, when any of these young soldiers should be killed, it would be the quickest way of turning great numbers of current Israeli supporters into rabid Israel haters and possibly having them become Judeophobic. The idea of sacrificing good Christian young men and women in a war to save the Jewish State, which would be seen as Christians being sacrificed for the Jews, would turn many average Americans against Israel, against the Jewish State. This is true for the United States and would stand true for any nation sacrificing their young military men and women for Israel or in any other foreign war. Citizens of most nations fully understand using their military youth in a necessary conflict to protect their nation and people but such understanding wanes rapidly when those sacrifices are being made for other people and nations. Add in that in this case the nation would be the Jewish State and the waning would become an abatement leaving a mere trickle of support for aiding Israel. Israel must be prepared to defend herself by herself with as little reliance on outside forces, specifically troops, coming to their aid. Materials are one thing and people, especially young people who make up the fighting forces, facing possible death and some actually being killed in such a war would increase anti-Israel and Judeophobic reactions swaying the majority of the people to decry such activities. This is a situation which Israel would be advised to take every possible measure for self-dependence and never allow non-Israelis from ever fighting in an Israeli war and especially being injured, or worse killed. For this reason, amongst others, Bibi Netanyahu or any other Israeli Prime Minister should refuse to agree to any mutual defense agreement no matter which nation might be offering such.

 

Another reason not to enter such an agreement is even more obvious, Israel also needs to avoid ever being dragged into a conflict, especially one in the Middle East or Northern Africa, the Arab and Islamic world, through any treaty as the IDF is not as large an army as those of other nations around the world. According to Global Fire Power, the IDF ranks as the seventeenth most powerful military, a ranking largely due to the advanced weaponry, especially defensive weaponry such as the Iron Dome and other anti-missile systems and not their number of troops. This ranking rates Turkey, Egypt, Iran and Pakistan all ranked as more powerful militaries. When it comes to active duty personnel, Israel does not even rank in the top twenty-five coming in at around twenty-eighth in the world with numerous Arab and Islamic nations with far larger numbers of active duty personnel. Israel would become excessively vulnerable were she required to station numbers of her active duty troops outside the country. That is an easily observed part of the reality in which Israel lives.

 

Should Iran actually be emboldened by the departure of John Bolton, this would initially likely take the form, as Mr. Langfan predicted, of attacks on Saudi Arabian assets such as the recent attack with drones on their oil fields relatively close to Iran. Targets within Saudi Arabia have the advantage of allowing Iran to offer disclaimers of their involvement pressing other potential entities to be responsible. Some of these would include but not be limited to claiming the attacks were the work of the Houthis in Yemen, allied forces from Iraq where Iran can pretend they were acting independently as well as blaming non-state actors such as Hezballah, the IRGC, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other Iranian operative groups. Mr. Langfan left out other potential targets which Iran might attack via their proxies such as Egypt or Israel amongst others. Currently, there are some low-level altercation and skirmishes along both the northern and southern borders of Israel. These are utilizing Hezballah in the north supported by IRGC forces and Iranian provided rockets and missiles, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the south out of Gaza using rockets and incendiary and high explosive balloons, kites and drones being used to turn much of southern Israel into a smoldering wasteland. There will also be the potential for increased terrorism anywhere around the world driven by Iran through their proxies some of which train and operate out of the tri-border region in South America. Iran might even decide to be so bold as to attack the United States indirectly through their international terror network. The only question is how far will Iran go in taking risks of having the United States retaliate. Even were the United States able to discover Iranian involvement in such attacks, their response would be measured and relatively proportional. This is one position which President Trump has mentioned, the concept that military actions need to be measured and proportional to the acts which precipitated such a response. This is a modern concept which has infected the developed world paralleling their belief that the natural state of the world is to be at peace in order to develop the economies and all interactions between nations would be related to trade. Apparently, they have a very warped view of history which is not realistic and may be a potential disaster waiting to happen. Should Iran start to wage a low-grade terror and indirect attack methodologies, the United States would eventually reach a point where such could no longer be ignored, especially as the media would be taunting President Trump for his inaction and timidity in the face of what they would call an obvious war. Further, should the United States be dragged into a war in the Middle East, the last thing Israel needs is to have a mutual defense treaty potentially dragging them into the conflict. But Israel also will have their potential difficulties with an emboldened Iran.

 

 

Israel has Iranian proxies in Gaza with Hamas and Islamic Jihad and in Lebanon and southeastern Syria with Hezballah, the IRGC and even Iranian military forces. Of the two threats, Hezballah is probably the greater one with potentially over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles of various sizes and warheads including numerous which are capable of striking anywhere in Israel and even beyond (see table above). Further, both Hezballah and Islamic Jihad, which will drag Hamas along with them, have promised to provide the other a second front against Israel should hostilities break out. This would include coordinated attacks potentially coming from Lebanon, out of Gaza in the south and along the Golan Heights attacking from Syria as Iran has Israel within their or their proxies’ sights almost circling the tiny Jewish State. Then there is always the final threat Israel could likely face, and that is Iran itself. Iran has numerous rockets and missiles which can reach Israel launched from Iran or Iraq as shorter-range weapons could be launched from Iraq which is much closer to Israel not to mention Iran could launch from within Syria as they have done on several occasions in the recent past. Currently, Hezballah has things remaining at a low boil, but this could change without notice should Iran so choose. Israel would be pressed too close to her limit were Iran to actively enter into hostilities. The fear then would be whether Iran would be launching weapons of mass destruction such as nerve agents, biological agents or possibly nuclear warheads, the greatest of their potential threats whether they are atomic bombs of thermonuclear weapons with the difference being scale. Any Iranian attack on Israel which would be directly traceable to them would require Israel to respond well outside of President Trump’s concept of proportionality. This would be one time when that charge could be leveled against Israel and we would probably simply plead guilty and continue as we are talking the survival of the nation and nothing less.

 

In summation, Israel has sufficient troubles without signing onto a mutual defense pact with the United States. We are unsure that the United States would respond honoring such a treaty made while President Trump is in office after he leaves office and even more so should the Democrats take the White House. Further, President Trump may have emboldened Iran which may have been demonstrated by the recent attack on the Saudi oil fields. This could lead quickly to escalations throughout the Middle East and potentially the world of both terrorism and further potential wars. For those who did not yet read the article by Mark Langfan linked to at the top of the article, we can only advise giving it a perusal. And please allow us to end with one last new thought, Iranian leadership believes that they are the ones who are chosen to rule the world and spread their version of Shia Islam until they have converted the entire population of the planet while beheading those who refuse to convert. This includes bringing the world to the verge of extinction setting much of it in the flames of destruction, nuclear if necessary being broadly used, so as to force the arrival of their chosen messiah. Does this sound eerily familiar? This has been the driving force of the worst conflagrations in our history and this promises to make them all seem like small skirmishes by the time they are done.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Islamic State is not the Main Threat, Iran Is

 

Islamic State is not yet a problem so large it cannot be dealt with in a matter of weeks, not months, not years, but weeks. President Obama was on the right page when he referred to them as the Junior Varsity and he ought to know as he armed the Varsity with his Iran agreement. Granted, as far as any intelligence which has been revealed to any source we have found would admit; Iran does not yet have a practical deliverable nuclear device. Sure Iran could build a nuclear bomb and possibly a thermonuclear bomb, a hydrogen bomb. The problem they face is twofold. First is the device would be crude by modern standards and would be too cumbersome for placing on a missile and Iran does not have any heavy bombers which are able to penetrate any radar nor have the range to strike the United States. Secondly, the device would be trackable by nuclear detection satellites and thus there would be no element of surprise and at least the United States military and probably others would have early warning should such a concentrated amount of nuclear fuel be moved; and all a nuclear device is, is a concentrated amount of highly enriched nuclear fuel which can easily be pushed to critical mass. The only way that Iran could currently conceal a nuclear device would be to build the device sufficiently deeply underground and then contain it in lead or other means of preventing its detection by satellites and other means, load it onto a ship and sail it to its target detonating it as soon as the first alarms were sounded by the detection devices currently in place at most major shipping docks. The problem will be what Iran develops within the next three to five years as they master miniaturization thus making a high yield thermonuclear device deliverable on any of their missiles, particularly any of their suborbital and low Earth orbital missiles which by then will have the capability to strike anywhere on the planet.

 

We know from monitoring their launches that Iran has, as has North Korea, mastered the launch angle which the Russians first proposed and the Chinese were informed of this weakness who then passed it to the North Koreans who have shared this information with Iran that the United States defensive grid and radars all point northward where a perceived nuclear attack by the Soviets was feared would strike going over the North Pole. Thus, should Iran develop a nuclear warhead and the missile with which to deliver it all they would need is a missile capable of crossing Antarctica and coming upon the United States crossing the Gulf of Mexico and within a minute detonating approximately three-hundred miles over St Louis-Kansas City area using a low yield high EMP device, exactly what intelligence from numerous sources has indicated Iran has concentrated most of their research into manufacturing, and thus crippling the entire North American grid overloading well over three-quarters of the main transformers to overload and potentially explode and minimally melt down and knocking their delivery systems out of order for the foreseeable future and which would take decades to replace causing an estimated eighty-five to ninety percent of the human life to die as a consequence. Making matters worse, the only nations currently producing such transformers are Germany and Japan. That, my friends, is the real nature of the threat to the United States and all her allies counting on her promises of defense and protection. Where will those allies sit when the United States is incapable of accessing her satellites to provide intelligence and other warnings? That is the big question.

 

The astonishing is the price of hardening the power grid, the protecting it from an EMP attack by any enemy as well as protecting it from solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as well as from storm damage would cost between a half of a billion dollars to as high as twenty-five billion dollars depending on how much of the grid one would desire to protect. The higher figure would protect the entirety of the electrical grid leaving only what is deemed the “last mile” vulnerable which is the lines coming to the poles and small transformers for home delivery vulnerable which thus would make a single strike EMP device a local failure of power which could be repaired in months, not years, and would effect a relatively small area. This higher price would include hardening the parts of the grid delivering electricity to hospitals, government communications centers, phone company service, military facilities, police and fire service and other vital systems. Granted, it would still be a disaster for an EMP event be it a solar storm or a nuclear or other EMP attack but it would be survivable. If work began this month the hardening could be mostly complete and the grids switched over to the new below ground delivery system within five years, it would only take funding and Congress is aware of this situation having monitored its price since it was first researched in the 1950s. Had the monies used to research and re-research this problem and its solutions have been used after the third assessment to installing the obviously necessary fix, it would have been accomplished long ago and the discussion would be ended. The problem with making the necessary repairs and alterations to the system is simple, once repaired it is no longer a campaign issue and everybody knows that a campaign issue, especially one so universally accepted as common sense, is far better than a problem resolved. The issue is that nobody can take credit for repairing a problem beyond maybe two or three election cycles (two years so for a Senator it would be one election cycle) while leaving a vital problem which is a winning position for both parties to continue to need addressing can be a campaign winner for decades upon decades if left wanting, which do you think the idiots in Washington would want more, the repair or the perpetual campaign device where incumbents can point to their votes to research an EMP vulnerability one more time or their opponent claiming they have ignored the problem too many times when it should have been addressed. Almost a no-brainer, a recurring issue is far more useful than any repair of a major vulnerability, obviously. If the American public, even as small as ten percent, were to make the actual repair work their main priority and establish an NGO to lobby Congress and the White House these repairs would be financed and gone within one Senatorial election cycle (six years). But of course this is not as sexy a topic as say neutral-gendered public restrooms.

 

The vulnerability of the North American electrical grid is actually becoming a vital issue as it would take ordering some fifty new transformers to begin the main work such that as the system is hardened simply by burying it twenty yards underground, it would require less but placing it that deep would allow for almost any building to take place without causing disruptions caused by new buildings construction needing to rerun electrical grid wiring. In urban environments and presumed expansion of large metropolises the depth could be increased placing it beyond any conceivable construction projects with the possible exception of an underground city, another idea from the fifties we have not seen as the science magazines envisioned along with cities under the ocean and flying cars, though progress is good on the flying cars and not so much the others as people like being able to walk outside and feel the breeze on their cheeks and the warmth of the sun while taking in some rays on a summer day. Under ground and under water make these little pleasures a tad more difficult, not insurmountable, but more difficult. So, the question we need to be asking the American public is, when are they going to take up this as their main concern every election cycle thus letting Congressional Representatives and Senators alike know that if they are not actively pushing and bringing legislation to the floor every six months then they will be voted out of office. Make them accountable for having the monies granted to the states to harden their electrical grids. Furthermore, they must have a date set for all work to be completed, granted if the deadline is five years it will take fifteen, and have the Department of Energy (DOE) follow up and report to Congress and the White House every six months. Make completing such a project a national priority, that is completion and not debate and researched, as the research has been done and redone and done again ten times over and the time to implement is far beyond overdue and needs to be done, not still overdue.

 

Both North Korea and Iran have been furthering their research into an EMP attack allowing them to strike the North American electrical grid and then sit back and watch the United States and Canada suffer a blow placing them back into the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries at the very start of the electronic age and widely distributed power systems being built. Knowing this threat is rapidly becoming a reality and the race should be on whether such an attack can be mounted successfully against the hardening of the electrical grid getting it sufficiently far along to prevent most of the damage from such an attack. Intelligence reports have already shown the advances, and sizeable they are, of North Korea and Iran, with assistance from China, making the preparations to allow for such an attack. Congressional studies having been done at least a dozen times and still no action on what should be and is a federal responsibility yet still there are no plans being put into motion with only Texas making and executing the initial phases for hardening the electrical grid should alarm the public into demanding action. The race is an obvious one placing the Iranian ability to deliver a nuclear or electrical bomb as an EMP attack over central United States against the United States hardening the North American power grid. Thus far only North Korea and Iran are participating in this race while the United States is still rubbing its hands together treating hardening the electrical grid as a perpetual campaign issue to never be resolved as it serves them for the problem to persist. Where are the people and their demanding that this problem be resolved? Perhaps if somebody were to get the public involved and demand, then this project can be completed before Iran or North Korea uses the vulnerability as a weapon, destroying the United States by taking out their ability to deliver generated electricity to the general public. It is obvious that posing this as a threat to life as we know it has not engendered any serious concern so it is time to strike a blow below the belt, as it were. There need be a large effort on social media informing the American people that should an EMP wave strike their electrical grid, be it a solar flare or an attack by North Korea or the soon to go nuclear Iran that they would no longer have cell phone service, no more texting, and no more following the Kardashian on the web or watching Game of Thrones on Television and no more microwave dinners, perhaps then they would wake up and smell the odor coming from the unpowered refrigerators. Just saying. What will it take to wake the American people to demand this be taken seriously by their Representatives and Senators in Congress and whoever will be in the White House next to get-er-done! Iran is counting on the United States to remain unaware and unconcerned in order for them to strike and wipe the United States off the world’s scene leaving them as the inheritors of the world.

 

Iran could squash the Islamic State in under six months and under six weeks with the assistance of Putin and the Russian military. That was proven by the cruise missile attack made this week by Russia from ships in the Caspian Sea striking Raqqa, Idlib and Aleppo provinces of Syria causing heavy casualties to Islamic State forces stationed in these areas. Further, you will note the lack of concern over the use by the Russian forces in Syria of disproportional force as the Islamic State cannot launch cruise missiles from ships, they have no ships. Further, where is the concern over collateral damage, civilian casualties or of causing collective punishment and targeting innocents? Where are the perpetually concerned activists who flock to every court in the world which will hear them, storm the United Nations General Assembly and Security Council as well as the United Nations Human Rights Council and every NGO concerned with human rights as well as the editorial page of the New York Times and other leftist news networks, newspapers and other media? Oh, excuse me, I thought this was Israeli cruise missiles, go back to sleep, nothing to see here. After all, it is not as if anybody in Moscow would care one iota about any rulings in any court, commission, council or NGO even if one were to have the nerve to stand up and accuse Russia of war crimes, come-on, give me a break. So, in case we were not paying attention to the entire Middle East conundrum, Russia and Iran are cutting a swath out from the easternmost borders of Iran facing India through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon thus establishing and cementing in place a Shiite Crescent which we defined as one of the main designs the Iranians placed in their list of priorities, even first on the list right ahead of nuclear weapons and using them to rid the world of the Great and Little Satans, the United States and Israel, thus the EMP coverage above. This Iranian Shiite Crescent would include all of Iraq except for the Kurdish regions which they would name as Iraq as the rest of Iraq would have been absorbed into Iran along with Syria and Lebanon, though Syria would be managed by Bashir al-Assad and Lebanon would be a semiautonomous state owing fealty to Iran (see map below).

 

 

This is the desired and long sought Iranian Shiite Crescent across the Middle East reaching from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea after Islamic State Defeat and Iran Surge Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad with Hezballah retaining their iron-fist control over Lebanon and the Iraqi Shiites retaining their hold on the southern half of Iraq. This could very well be the starting positions for a final World War resulting in exchanges of nuclear weapons before the end is reached. This map also depicts the areas bordering the Iranian influence which could become the future red lines and the trip wire for a horrific conflagration, exactly what the Twelvers desire to bring back the Twelfth Imam and the Islamic Messiah who will lead them to finally realize their destiny of world conquest. Despite what many in the West view as an outdated and dead idea, the Iranian leadership dreams of world conquest and desire to that end.

 

 

The main force blocking the Iranian dreams are held by the anti-Assad forces and the Islamic State. Currently these two forces are fighting one another which Iran sees as to their advantage and as military doctrines point out, when two of your enemies are fighting each other, arm both and sit back and watch. This is exactly what Iran is doing while Russia attacks both keeping either from attaining a victory. When the time is ripe and the Iranians are ready to spread their voodoo that they do so well, their moves will be signaled by their overrunning the Islamic State and wiping out the opposition to al-Assad returning him to power where he can rule over the rubble. When the Iranian Army, aided by shock forces from the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps), crash into the Islamic State from both sides aided by United States and Russian air power with the Russian operating within Syria and the United States striking in Iraq, then they will have aided Iran in establishing what they feel is required to pursue goals at the next level. These attacks will also serve a secondary objective, the acquisition of Abrams Main Battle Tank which they will be able to reverse engineer its best features and develop the next Iranian Heavy Battle Tank ending their reliance of Russia for their main battle tanks. What the world need understand is that Iran is not aiming for simple hegemony over the Middle East surpassing Israel in military strength; their intent is replacing the United States as the main superpower of the planet. The majority of military assessments of Iran place their aspirations as being to simply be the main power in the Middle East. Where that is their immediate goal, it is a goal on their way to far loftier goals. Once they assume the role of superpower in the Middle East it is their intent to take control of the GCC oil fields and of the two holy cities of Mecca and Medina thus claiming the title of the central force in Islam. Should Iran establish these facts on the ground it will amaze most military and political researchers on how fast Shiite Islam completely eclipses Sunni Islam. There will be a rush for Sunnis to declare their perpetual and complete devotions to Shiite Islam and Shias will be the predominant form of Islam practiced in the world though the majority of these new Shia Muslims practices will almost assuredly appear no different than their practices under Sunni, only their adherence to the Ayatollah over any other religious leader and their imams will slowly transit their practice to celebrate the Shia holidays and follow Shiite rules and power structure.

 

Even the fighters from the Islamic State might see it as to their advantage to switch sides and serve Iran if given half the chance. It is exactly what Osama bin Laden stated in video tape released after he attacked the United States on September 11. 2001, “When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse… We hit her the first hit and the next one will hit her with the hands of the believers, the good believers, the strong believers. By Allah it is a great work. Allah prepares for you a great reward for this work.” Iran is the coming unarguable strong horse with Shia Islam following right behind attracting the worship of the soon to be majority Shiites over the has-been Sunni should Iran get half the chance to complete their current plans. In a warped manner, Islamic State has served a two-fold purpose of stymying the Iranian plan for a quick destruction of the anti-Assad forces in Syria and completing his crescent of power across the entirety of the Middle East and then being able to center their attention on the oil fields in Kuwait and northern Saudi Arabia as well as the oil fiefdoms along the Arabian coastlines which would allow Iran to tie a direct route to Yemen allowing for Iranian forces, likely mostly from the ranks of the IRGC to assault the western edge of Saudi Arabia gaining a front along the Red Sea, cementing their control over what passes through the Suez Canal and thus controlling one of Egypt’s main sources of income, as well as capturing Mecca and Medina and with them control over the world’s one and one third billion Muslims. Once Iran has gained that much influence over the Islamic world the rest of the world, in their thoughts, is simply ripe for them to pluck off the lowest hanging branches of the tree. If anybody is still seeking the blue turban mentioned so predominantly in one of the Nostradamus quatrains:

 

 

Century 9 – Quatrain 73
The king enters Foix wearing a blue turban,
he will reign for less than a revolution of Saturn;
the king with the white turban, his heart banished to Byzantium,
Sun, Mars and Mercury near Aquarius.

Dans Foix entrez Roi ceiulee Turban,
Et regnera moins revolu Saturne,
Roi Turban blanc Bisance cœur ban,
Sol, Mars, Mercure pres de la hurne.

 

Iran has a master plan to become the new master race replacing their friends from World War II, the Nazis. In 1935, Reza Shah asked foreign delegates to use the term Iran replacing their historical name of Persia. Despite most of the world having referred to Iran as Persia, the people of Iran, since the Sassanid Dynasty when it was called Iranshahr or Empire of Iran, had been using the name Iran, as it translates in English, in conversation and whenever referring to the people as well as the nation internally. It was considered quite interesting that the timing of the request from Persian to now be referred to by the old but not as ancient name of Iran as it coincided with the rise to power of Adolph Hitler, the Nazi Party and the concept of a master race called the Aryans which translates to Farsi as Iran. Despite the history behind the name, changing the name from Persia to Iran, meaning Aryan, was quite strange and could only be determined by the Western powers as depicting the preference of the Persian, now Iranian, leadership to the Axis powers and not the allies. For many decades, Iran and the German Empire had cultivated ties, partly as a counter to the imperial ambitions of Britain and the Russian Empires but which proved problematic to the allied powers as World War II placed the necessity for taking sides, especially in the oil rich Middle East. This was where the long established friendship between Iran and Germany caused concern which was the reasoning behind the Anglo-Soviet invasion of Iran from August 25 through September 17, 1941 thus preventing Iranian oil from giving Germany the lifeblood of war, petroleum for the engines of aircraft, armor and vehicles of all sorts, the very necessities for a modern military even during World War II. In conclusion, Iran has a similar vision as did Germany in the lead up to World War II. Iran now sees themselves as the new chosen to rule the globe, and yes, there are those who still believe in world conquest. All one need do is listen to the speeches translated from the first Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini or his successor the current Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The western world ignores the warning signs at their own risk, and a great risk that is. When somebody joins in on a group chant of “Death to America, Death to Israel!” then both America and Israel should sit up and pay attention. Israel has shown that she is and has been paying attention for quite some time but the United States appears to be more focused on Israel and the demand that they give back to the Arabs every inch of the land they demand and yes the leadership of the United States, especially in the State Department, are fully aware that the Palestinian and Arab demand is for every inch of Israel with the Jews removed by whatever means are available. If no nation on Earth will take them in then the other solution must be implemented, another final solution to a Jewish problem. The Jews have been down this road before despite the evidence out of Tel Aviv which appears to be adamantly ignorant and mislead by leftists of the world uniting in declaring Israel the next Palestine and the Israeli Jews and Christians as the next genocidal massacre as the world shrugs and claims they did not see it coming and were planning on mobilizing but they took too long, so bad, how sad, you western-world cad. The one overlooked item is the Jews who remember history, all three and a half thousand years of history and we have made a solemn vow, Never Again!! Just in case you missed it,

 

 

Memorial Entrance to the
Dachau Concentration Death Camp
Which reflects on the reason that
Never Again must mean Never Again
and that is said to all Whose Choice is
the Persecution of Jews Anywhere
NEVER AGAIN!!

 

Never Again!!

And we Mean Every Word

 

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Iran, Iraq, Syria, and the Messy Middle East

 

We may as well write one summary of the different threats to war and actual wars in an all-in-one article. Apparently the Iran negotiations appear to have the most dire predictions of which business as usual is probably the biggest threat of them all. Thus far no final agreement appears to be on the horizon and would have been out of the question and all the sanctions and potentially more would be the current business as usual. It is abundantly obvious that United States President Obama and his Secretary of State Kerry are willing to roll over and accept whatever crumbs the Iranians will permit them and still pronounce the ‘it’s not a treaty it’s a Presidential arms agreement’ treaty, the peace in our time agreement which has Secretary Kerry’s and Iran Foreign Minister Zarif’s signatures on it promising that there will be no unnecessary or over hostile acts by the Iranian government and their work (not that there was any) towards the production of nuclear weapons for ten years, as a momentous diplomatic agreement which will place Iran on the road to international acceptance and into the world of nations. The signs that there will be an agreement, not treaty, completed by the deadline, or a few days, months, years later after more serious negotiations, of the end of June with a potential aligning ceremony in the Oval Office on the Fourth of July which will just be further evidence of the importance of the reaching an accord. Then there are the assurances and uncertainties all depending on your source as to whether or not the deal in progress is an advantageous or detrimental agreement with the numbers of sceptics steadily appearing to increase the closer we all get to an agreement. The only assurances we have is that this agreement will be beneficial to all and that the people telling us this belong to one of two groups, those reporting about the particulars that even the negotiators admit is uncertain if the agreement will encompass said assurance or are part of the providers of information who are attempting to make any agreement a positive no matter how many half-truths and outright-lies they have to shovel to a swarm of ever hungry media swarm all in an effort to further President Obama’s second greatest achievement in office after Obamacare. Such a comparison alone should worry even the greatest supporters of the President and this deal.

 

So, what can we know for sure? For one, it is that the sanctions will be lifted, all of them, or as many as President Obama can humanly bring to an end. This has been made evident through encouragements given to many leaders of industry, particularly the oil and gas industry. It has been reported that the White House has encouraged the chief executives of the Dutch Shell company, Total of France, Italy’s Eni and Lukoil of Russia to initiate talks to normalize and expand the Iranian energy sector of their economy. There have been signals, mostly in Russia, China and Europe and not-so-much in the United States (quite curious this is) to also put forth feelers and prepare the groundwork and even go so far as to agree on principles of agreements which can be made to go active the very second that any P5+1 and Iranian agreement is signed and in effect. This has been the message over the past two months and has yet to diminish in its optimism despite the negotiations appearing to crumble as Iran pulls back and refuses to agree on what one would think are some of the most vital necessities for an agreement which would be observed and have inspections of such a nature as to make such compliances enforceable. These overtures have been made while the White House continues to make statements purporting normal progress at the talks and a general sense of agreement on some of the most vital issues. President Obama has communicated through channels in the media that there will be an intensive inspection routine including snap without warning inspections while the Iranians continue to believe that the negotiations specifically forbade snap inspections nor allow inspections of what Iran denotes as military infrastructure and bases nor permit any inspection without ample and reasonable, to be determined by Iran on an individual basis, notifications before Iran will permit any single inspection. The White House insists that Iran will come forth on its previous military and nuclear procedures, accomplishments and other vital and necessary information even on particularly touchy questions which within the last week began its metamorphosis into a very different animal where suddenly the Administration claims that there is little to be gained by forcing the point of Iran reporting its previous work as we know where they have gone and what they have achieved and everything has been above board all while the Iranians remain quite intransigent on permitting inspections of military bases or revealing the information on all previous nuclear activities and military progress in related fields. From apparent media reports over the past few days the Administration appears to have become omniscient on all things concerning Iranian past progress, military research and development, military progress on missile technology (which to many observers to be directed on developing a reliable ICBM which will supplement their ballistic missile inventory adding the ability to directly strike the United States which some may find an odd direction for such intense research if one is not developing nuclear weapons to place atop those ICBMs) and possible work on a nuclear trigger mechanism which is vital to the production of nuclear and thermonuclear weapons. This was supposed to settle the arguments that Iran may be hiding vital work which would include some very damning information casting the long shadow of doubt on Iranian denials to be researching the industrial development of nuclear weapons.

 

Still, the date of the presumed coming out party has been set. The final particulars of the United States surrender are being completed, the promise that after the agreement has been put in place that all sanctions will be removed has been given though not admitted and one of the latest individual pieces has been the apparent agreement that the P5+1 (read United States) will provide Iran with several light water reactors which produce plutonium which is useable for production of nuclear weapons at a far less aggressive rate than the heavy water reactor at Arak. Further, Iran shall be provided with other technologies for civilian uses of nuclear power and enriched uranium and lastly, recently leaked information indicates that the Fordo nuclear enrichment site, which was built into the heart of a mountain and is considered impervious to any bombing attack, shall remain operating with promises that it will not be utilized for enrichment of uranium for nuclear weapons and instead will limit the enrichment cycles to keep them beneath weapons grade of over ninety-percent. Secretary of State John Kerry has affirmed that the United States has already relaxed several sanctions and has stated the sanctions will be lifted immediately after any signing of an agreement without having performed any steps for verifying Iranian compliance with whatever limitations and restrictions that President Obama would request as part of the agreement. This has made Senator Robert Menendez (D- N.J.) sufficiently perturbed and suspicious that he has introduced legislation to extend the soon expiring sanctions over the Iranian missile research and development on Iran for another ten years as Senator Menendez is far from convinced that any progress has been or will be made as part of the current negotiations. Perhaps this should be the position of everybody else as the reassurances from Secretary Kerry and the President and his spokespersons leave much clarification and even initial information on many subjects with missile development is chief amongst them.

 

Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Iran are juxtaposed Saudi Arabia, Egypt and in a loose and unofficial manner including Israel. The problem is most obvious in Yemen where Iranian backed and armed Houthis are in an open civil war for the control of Yemen now mostly attempting to complete their takeover by solidifying their presence across the south-western third of Yemen, something Saudi Arabia is making particularly difficult. The Saudis are quite wary of permitting Iran from militarily threatening complete control and the ability to cause a severe blockage of trade around much of the world and particularly about European-Asian trade as well as almost one-third of the world’s oil supplies and much of Europe’s lifeline to Arabian oil. The first choke point is the Straits of Hormuz and the second is the straits named Bab-el-Mandeb that controls passage from the Red Sea and Suez Canal to eventually the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean and which can be controlled from the south-western-most point in Yemen which remains just beyond Iranian reach for the time being. Saudi Arabia and Egypt have vested interests in the Bab-el-Mandeb waterway remaining open and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation nations have a vested interest in keeping the Straits of Hormuz clear and freely operating. Israel additionally has a vested interest in keeping Bab-el-Mandeb open as all trade out of Eilat’s ports in this southern-most city in all of Israel and major shipping point to Asia, something many believe is at the heart of the future of Israel, and who would even dare to challenge that. Further, having Yemen under the influence of Iran and with that, the potential of Iran to furtively place some special units from the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps) into Yemen to spearhead an invasion into Saudi Arabia’s underbelly and then once the Saudis had dispatch troops to guard the southern border, then an Iranian led revolt by the Shiites who mostly live in the north-east of Saudi Arabia making that a second front likely tying up most of the Saudi forces making the nation susceptible to a mass Iranian assault timing all of this for during an announced exchange of forces thus allowing for Iran to at least have twice as many troops in southern Iraq than usual and also presenting a potential for turning those troops southward invading Saudi Arabia across the entirety of the border shared with Iraq where IRGC and other Iranian forces deployed to fight ISIS which has invaded much of the Syria and Iraq while making wild claims about being the heart of the next Caliphate. This would satisfy, if successful, one of the boasts Iran has regularly made about the Holy Cities, the most holy in Islam, of Mecca and Medina must be wrest from the hands of the deceivers and apostates, the Iranian Shiite name when referencing any Sunni Muslims. It would also be done in a direct challenge and risk infuriating ISIS which is also interested in the Holy Cities and would consider their being in the hands of Shiites as a moral imperative for ISIS and their Sunni Muslims to liberate them from the apostate hands of Iranian Shiites.

 

Now let us have a quick discussion of ISIS and their claims of being the next Caliphate. This claim at this early stage is a bit presumptuous though over-the-top bombastic claims such as the ISIS claim of being the new Caliphate are apparently part and parcel of the culture and thus should be read as such. Is ISIS a threat? Of course it is but keep in mind that it had originally served as the al-Qaeda branch in Iraq fighting the United States during the Second Iraq War under President George W. Bush where these al-Qaeda forces had been adequately eradicated that President Obama brought all the troops home declaring in a speech at Fort Bragg on Dec. 14, 2011 where he stated, “It’s harder to end a war than begin one. Indeed, everything that American troops have done in Iraq–all the fighting and all the dying, the bleeding and the building, and the training and the partnering–all of it has led to this moment of success. Now, Iraq is not a perfect place. It has many challenges ahead. But we’re leaving behind a sovereign, stable and self-reliant Iraq, with a representative government that was elected by its people. We’re building a new partnership between our nations. And we are ending a war not with a final battle, but with a final march toward home. This is an extraordinary achievement, nearly nine years in the making.” ISIS will remain as a problem for as long as the United States continues its little trip down memory lane returning to their isolationist roots but the sooner that there is a new President, hopefully one who realizes the role the United States played in the world as without American leadership who can the world follow? After World War II the United States dictated to its enemies as well as its friends in the world to lay down their arms as the world had to be made such that Europe would find some manner of non-belligerence and thus unable to start yet another conflagration which envelops the rest of the world endangering all. The United States was not going to allow Europe drag her into another conflict, especially when the toll for World War II was figured. Japan even went so far as to insist that they be deprived of a military force capable of attacking her neighbors be put into their new constitution. The United States also made sure to have a prolonged military presence in all of the western nations as are the Soviets in theirs behind the, Winston Churchill‘s coined phrase, ‘Iron Curtain.’ With what ISIS has claimed is their aim, perhaps a similar deal should have been placed on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) thus completely covering the lands which were affected by the war. Instead, the Middle East actually faced a difficulty forced upon them by the European powers of France, Britain, Russia and Italy after World War I named Sykes-Picot Agreement where states were carved out of the colonial areas which the European powers had controlled for over two centuries. These states looked, for all intents and purposes, as randomly drawn but further delving into the agreement it becomes obvious that where the lines were less important than was repaying certain promises and not others and leaving states which could never function as normal nations as their citizenry were from different factions which would require a strong and somewhat viscous dictator more than a caring leader. Iran was fortunate enough to remain unchanged as she had remained Persia and beyond the colonial disciplines of the European overlords. This is one area where ISIS has gotten things correct, Sykes-Picot was a disaster needing remedial action, though combining all into one homogenous Caliphate where the people, more likely subjects, would all need to meet a purity test or face death or reeducation. ISIS has risen to prominence largely due to the entirety of the MENA regions being unstable, surprise-surprise, which had come partially from the mess put in place after World War I. In many ways, by not arranging to have the nations covering individual areas such as an area for the Kurds even named Kurdistan, and unifying Sunni Areas separate from Shia areas, and place borders respecting tribal areas and allowing the people to make suggestions and using them wisely, not nearly random large nations which would be so consumed by inner strife that they would be unable to mount external troubles, which also did not work as we saw with the decade of war between Iraq and Iran. This entire false drawing of nations was doomed to fail and produce an even stronger order which would eventually reunite many of the Islamic Arabs into a larger and ready to conquer group, it is just ISIS will not be that group as it currently operates. There will eventually be a leader who will find the chord which will bring people to their cause far more willingly and not by force and threat of arms. First, the MENA must find their way through this current crisis and possibly agree to redraw the lines across the Middle East divided by natural lines which will produce a more homogeneous populace for each state so that it can function as an economic unit more than a military unit as the Middle East itself has for centuries been an area which thrived through trading between Asia and Europe which it could again find their niche as well as trading their own goods, especially petroleum which unfortunately will be a major factor in the redrawing should such take place.

 

The problem will arise due to there being vested interests and moneyed interests in controlling valuable assets, especially oil. A very large example would be Saudi Arabia which will never permit the taking of their oil fields just because the majority living there are Shiites nor would they ever release their ownership holding of Mecca and Medina even to an international Islamic trust. Iran would never allow its oil fields to be given to another group made up of Arab descendants because the major population is not Persian. Any future settlement in the MENA area is going to take some serious and strong Islamic leadership who are more interested in helping the people than they are in glorifying themselves in this life which will always have some basis in control of resources. As things stand right now there is no real nation of Syria nor is there any nation of Iraq, both are consumed in internal and external conflicts tearing them apart. There were those who called for dividing Iraq into three nations, one Sunni, one Shia, and one Kurdish. This still would not have been advantageous for the Christians and the Yazidi and other tribes with either minority Islamic sects or older religions such as those following a version of Zoroastrianism. Still, any plan was bound to hit some snags but such a division might have produced a better system that would have been better able to resist ISIS and their onslaught which currently has Sunni areas of Iraq either facing Shia vengeance or Sunni purist vengeance without any government in place of their own and no trained military as the Iraqi Army was currently majority Shia and has retreated to protect Baghdad and the Shiite south with large amounts of Iranian assistance and now apparently United States assistance in supporting the Shiite operations as the Iranian and United States troops are quartered together, have joint planning sessions and the United States arming and close air support is coordinated through the Iraqi government which is under the strict influence of the Iranian government which has left the Sunni and the Kurds out in the cold and on their own. This has produced much more serious consequences for the Sunni who had depended on the Iraqi government and military for their protection which has left them at the mercies of whichever force has control of their lives each hour while the Kurds far back even during the United States military occupation after removing Saddam Hussein from power had become a semi-autonomous region with their own militias and governance allowing them to survive without any assistance from the Iraqi government, military or otherwise. The Kurds have become a safe haven for the minorities and have provided better and more varied protection for minorities than the United States and their supported Shiite government in the south leaving the Sunni completely out in the cold. What can be done to settle the problems in the MENA regions will take somebody with a plan which answers the many difficulties such would involve and the means of enforcing such against vested interests that would be less than advantageous for the population. The people need to be the primary concern and their needs must be the overriding priority forcing the drawing of any future borders. There must not be any restrictions as to the number of states, their interactive cooperation and other concerns. It is likely that a loose federation will prove the best solution, I am just glad that I do not have to find the best solution though if I find the magical resolution, I will be pushing it here where unfortunately few of the really powerful people will find it, at least not as things stand or maybe I am mistaken. This will need to wait for a different time. The one other area we have yet to address will not make it into this article, but I have written much already on the difficulties within Israel and the need for another brilliant solution here where none can exist that both sides would agree upon as both sides believe they have the unassailable right to all of Jerusalem if not also all of the lands themselves.

 

Beyond the Cusp