Beyond the Cusp

June 21, 2014

Pending Iraq Catastrophe and the Kurds

The fighting in Iraq seems to have garnered quite a bit of attention on numerous fronts. We have President Obama attempting to go the minimal route and basically claim he has sent sufficient Special Forces troops to advise and assist as needed to turn the table and somehow force to make the Iraqi military stand and fight rather than run in flight as they have thus far. The reality is not quite as pretty or honorable but is probably the best option all things considered as far as saving Baghdad from itself. These special units which are being deployed consists of at least one Special Ops Unit who are trained specifically on IT (information technology), networking, and computer sciences and are tasked with destroying, neutralizing and rendering inoperative the massive computer complex, monitoring, as well as data retrieval and storage capable of gathering, storing and analyzing an impressively wide, extensive and complex variety and amount of data. Perhaps this is the smart way to go all things considered. The United States hopefully learned a lesson from their adventurism in Iraq and Afghanistan, namely that you cannot impose by force, coercion or any other implied form of persuasion a democratic governance which will produce a multicultural and acceptive society amongst peoples who are still part of a culture which is tribal, clan based or religiously exclusive such as exists between the Sunni and Shiite Islamic denominations without first reorienting their educational system and then remaining with a heavily influencing if not also heavy footprint residual force for probably close to two generations and maybe far longer as their basic approach and exclusive societal structure has been basically transformed into a system more adapted for inclusive, multicultural based society which can then become an operative democratic society. Establishing a democratic governance in a clan or tribal society can only produce a society in which the predominant faction will gain control over the government and use that power to make their rule permanently entrenched and often will go so far as to eradicate any other sector of the society they perceive as a threat.

 

What has been ignored in Iraq is the slow but steady eradication of the Sunni influences on the government by the Shiites who feel they are entitled to impose their will as a vengeance on the many decades of Sunni oppressions committed on them. They were simply using their control of the government to apply payback for the slights and oppressions they had suffered at the hands of the Sunnis under Saddam Hussein. This treatment by the Shiite government on their Sunni countrymen was restrained for as long as the United States military was present and preventing the majority Shiites from imposing their will and utilizing the government as a large club to oppress the Sunnis which served two purposes, it guaranteed their continued control of the governance and it limited the rights and liberties to their rival form of Islam, the Sunnis. The Shiite controlled government in Baghdad also would have imposed their will in a similar manner on the Kurds except the Kurds formed their own militia which performed the same role as a national army in defending their territories from outside influence thus protecting the Kurds enabling them to establish their own semiautonomous kingdom in the northern areas of Iraq. This has provided the only stable area in Iraq since the removal of the American forces and is the one saving grace which remains and is a credit to the United States liberation of Iraq from the oppressive rule of Saddam Hussein. The Kurds are also the only force thus far which has successfully stood up to the invading forces of ISIS even to the point of re-liberating Kirkuk after the Iraqi military stationed there simply evacuated before the advancing ISIS terrorists. Hopefully, when all is said and done and the new divisions of Iraq become somewhat stable, or at least as stable as anything currently can be in much of the Middle East, the Kurds will retain both Kirkuk and Mosul.

 

What would be an even grander vision would be the Kurds declaring themselves free from the dictates and alien government in Baghdad and establish the nation of Kurdistan, something which was presented to them as a promise which was not only never kept but intentionally broken over oil by the British. When the time came to establish the promised area of Kurdish autonomy and nationhood, the British made a new deal for the oil in northern Iraq as well as their already established agreement over the southern oil fields and thus Iraqi leader King Faisal was granted dominion over the Kurdish lands and Kurdistan was erased from the plans and the map. The Israelis are familiar with the British form of promises and honoring said promises as not only did the British take over three-fourths of the promised British Mandate for the Jewish State and in its stead establish Jordan as a gift to the Hashemites, a losers condolence prize after they were removed from their positions in Mecca and Medina, but also to this very day as the British are complicit with the Palestinian claims to Judea, Samaria and Gaza despite their solemn promises that the lands west of the Jordan River, after stealing those lands east of the Jordan River, would be inviolate and forever reserved and part of the Jewish State. If Israel relied on British promises, even Tel Aviv would not be a safe haven kept as promised for Jews to reside.

 

 The Kurds have had their own autonomous enclave for well over a decade starting with the overthrow of Saddam Hussein by the forces of the United States. They are sufficiently independent from the influences and controlling reach of the Shiite government in Baghdad that they have begun pumping the oil in their region through a Turkish pipeline to which they have become connected. Their initial shipment under the auspices of their declared governance, the autonomous Kurdish Regional Government, is sitting in the SCF Altia tanker ready to be unloaded tomorrow at the port city of Ashkelon by the Israelis. Israel has reached an agreement to buy Kurdish produced oil which will be piped through the Ceyhan pipeline despite opposition and protestations from Baghdad, obviously, and the United States, Israel has accepted this first shipment and is working to develop further relations with the Kurdish Regional Government. Israel should inform the Kurdish Regional Government that Israel is prepared to recognize the autonomous areas under Kurdish control, including Kirkuk and also Mosul if they should gain control of this city after the Iraqi unrest settles down, as an independent nation of Kurdistan and willing to enter a mutual defense pact promising to assist in the defense of the Kurdish areas should any outside force attempt to compromise their borders and lands. Such an event would controvert the claims from Baghdad that they control the region and that they and only they are permitted to sell all the oil within the Kurdish Regional Government areas.  Perhaps it is time for Israelis and the Kurdish peoples to claim the lands which were promised them at the end of World War I with the setting up of the mandate system under which both the Kurds and the Jews were promised homelands but those promises proved to be fluidic and the Jews saw over three-fourths of their mandated lands stolen and presented to an Arab potentate and the Kurds saw their promise simply dissolve completely as Iraq was given their lands in exchange for allowing the British to control the oil in the previously promised Kurdish lands.

 

The Kurds and Israelis share relatively good relations and share a history replete with broken British promises as major tragedies in their history, making their friendship that much stronger for the shared experiences. These difficult times with Iraq being swallowed by terrorist violence and assaults from the ISIS terrorist forces and the potential for Iranian troops to enter Iraq presumably for the purpose of assisting in the protection of the Shiite government in Baghdad and to repel the ISIS forces who are currently wreaking havoc over much of central and southern Iraq. Why should Iran or the United States have the right to intervene and defend the Baghdad government of Iraq and Israel be prevented from recognizing and promising to assist in the defense of the Kurdish lands in the north should they come under attack from terrorists or other outside forces. Contrary to their opinions, the United States and Iran have not been granted hegemonic control over the entire Middle East or even simply the Iraqi areas claimed by Baghdad. The Kurds have been operating independently for years and have earned the right to declare their independence. Why is it permissible for the disparate peoples who made up what used to be Yugoslavia be permitted to establish their own little fiefdom nations all of which would easily fit within the area controlled by the Kurdish people and the Kurds are forbidden from the same autonomous freedom to have their own lands. Just because President Obama or the State Department does not like the idea does not mean that such is forbidden. The Kurds should simply remind President Obama of his promise that the United States would no longer dictate to the world what they could or could not do and the world would not any longer require the permission from Washington before acting in their own best interests. This time of distress and dire threats is the perfect time to allow the Kurds to establish their own independent nation as their having defended their lands and the reputation of their military forces, militias as they are referred to, being largely responsible for the northern Kurdish defended region being left in peace. If keeping their area peaceful and under its own governance’s control and this serenity being the exception should be reason enough for the establishment of Kurdistan as they are not being protected by the Iraqi army or any other force out of Baghdad, so they should not be governed by those who are unwilling to protect them as they appear to be unable to protect their own or any other part of Iraq. Long live Kurdistan, friend and sharer of similar history and friend of Israel.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 26, 2012

Iran Aims For All Middle East Oil

You might have heard that the leadership of Iran is reasonable, logical and will act reasonably and in a predictable manner. The root of this position appears to have begun with the Obama Administration or possibly from somebody out of the European Union. Where it started is not really as important as is the fact that it has entered the echo chamber and is now being treated as accepted wisdom. In truth, I would agree with this assessment but not in the way it is being implied. Iran is totally logical as long as one factors in their motivational sources, the factual basis they use as their filter in judgments, and how they define the terms which you and they are using, especially if these terms have different meanings to the Iranians as they do to those of us in the United States and the rest of Western Civilization. This becomes important as Iran may be on the cusp of a period of expansionism with the end result being the formation of a New Persian Empire initially controlling the oil regions of the near Middle East and eventually as the leader of the new Caliphate and finally the final Islamic World all with Tehran as its capital. I wish to discuss simply the initial aim of controlling all of the Middle East oil and what this will mean for the United States.

Iran’s Central News Agency reported about a letter sent to the head of the Security Council claiming Abu Musa, the Greater Tunbs and the Lesser Tunbs, three islands in the Persian Gulf just past the entrance to the Straits of Hormuz are historically part of Iran. This was committed on response to the recent letter of protest submitted to the Security Council by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia criticizing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s visit to Abu Musa last week. This very well could reignite the smoldering conflict between Iran and the United Arab Emirates over to whom these islands belong and might easily expand to other islands inside the Straits of Hormuz which are claimed by both Iran and Oman. Iran has rattled their sabers over the alignment of these islands every so often but they have not visited them in quite some time. This may be an intentional instigation in order to push a confrontation though it is doubtful they would allow it to escalate into open warfare, at least not yet. This latest dust-up is most likely just serving as a little unfriendly reminder that Iran contests the ownership of these fairly strategic islands.

Where most will probably dismiss this as simply Iran making much noise and fury which in the end will signify nothing out of the ordinary, I have this feeling deep down that this time will prove different in the not too distant future. One has to remember that Iran has actually been on an expansionist bend since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and that they declared their intent from the very outset. Since then they have established deep ties with Syria turning Syria into what can only be described as a client state under the direction of Iran. With the assistance of Syria, Iran established Hezballah which now has established themselves as the power behind the governance in Lebanon. It is also becoming evident that as the United States and their NATO allies leave Iraq, Iran is steadily moving in and enforcing their will and influence there as well. Even the nemesis of the United States, Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has reappeared on the Iraqi power scene and has been gaining more and more influence. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have traveled between Baghdad and Tehran exchanging friendly greetings in a series of meetings. The same has been true with Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad but that friendship has cooled slightly of late as Turkey does not appear ready to play second fiddle to Iran.

We need to also add the suspected Iranian influence of some of the uprisings which were part of last year’s Arab Spring. In particular, Iran was accused largely by Saudi Arabia of instigating Shiite uprisings in Bahrain which resulted in necessitating Saudi Arabia to militarily intervene to protect the reigning monarch, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa. This was subsequent to the mobilization of both military and police in force by the family Saud to impose obvious overwhelming force in order to prevent even the slightest beginning of a revolution during the Arab Spring. These forces were deployed throughout the northeastern areas of Saudi Arabia where the majority of Shiite Muslims reside. They concentrated them near the Shiite Mosques where their presence successfully intimidated anyone even considering starting unrest thus ending any revolt before it could begin. The potential of an uprising by the Shiite population in northeastern Saudi Arabia was presumably traced implying an Iranian influence according to the Saudi rulers. Iran, needless to say, denied having any connection to the unrest in Bahrain or the squelched plans in Saudi Arabia. The accusations died off once the unrest ended.

Still, it is no secret that Iran would dearly love to gain possession of the Shiite areas of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and the oil fields located in these areas. There is one overriding problem with any Iranian strategies for taking control of these areas, the United States. The United States, despite recent apparent differences between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, also stands in the way of any Iranian thoughts for destroying the Zionist Entity. In almost every avenue which the Iranian Ayatollahs seek to press an Iranian influence has this same problem, the probability of opposition by the United States. This just might be much of the reason that every Friday after religious services let out from the Mosques that they hold rallies where they chant “Death to America” along with “Death to Israel”. The order of this chant has some relevance to the order in which the Iranians will plan their attacks. The problem for Iran in every single one of their expansionist dreams as well as their genocidal intents towards Israel is the military and nuclear umbrellas proffered by the United States over almost all of these targets, especially Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) members. This is the reason that the first target which will announce to the world that Iran has decided their time has arrived to strike out and take their proper and deserved place as the leaders of the new Islamic World will be an all-out attack on the United States, their main nemesis. Their plan will be a devastating knockout attack with their newly acquired nuclear weapons very likely in a combined EMP strike to destroy the power grid and as much of American technology as possible in parallel with nuclear attacks against at the very least New York and Washington DC in order to decapitate all of our governmental and business headquarters and most important people. Whether or not they also use nuclear weapons on other cities will depend on the number of such weapons in their arsenal. These attacks will be coordinated with their Hezballah agents who they will have already placed in tactical areas to implement further debilitating attacks in areas Iran will be unable to directly strike. What follows will be of little concern to the people of the United States; they will have much more serious problems to face. Most likely the next strike will be the oil fields of their neighbors as once they control the oil they will control the rest of the world’s economic health using oil as a means to their ends.

Beyond the Cusp

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