Why Iranian Nuclear Program Matters

 

President Obama would like the world to believe that there was a nuclear deal reached, signed, sealed and delivered to the Security Council and set into stone. There are a few problems with that story line, namely the Iran part of the deal. The part of the nuclear deal which is valid is that the sanctions have been lifted, Iran is back in the oil and pistachio business while European companies are tripping over each other in a race to sign deals with Iran and get their share of the billions which are going to be flowing when Iran receives the monies the United States is obligated to release from banks and investment accounts. The deal passed by the Security Council made the European and United States parts of the deal sealed and delivered and sent the Iranian part of the deal to Iran where it was graciously received and filed in the nearest wastebasket. Think back and try to remember the conflicting news reports from those final days of the Iran nuclear negotiations with the P5+1 consisting of Russia, China, Britain, France, the United States plus Germany and think back to the celebratory language and you might remember that the Obama White House and State Department were claiming one set of conditions, the Europeans had their version, Russia and China made very few statements with some in interviews with Western news interviews revealing that they were uncertain on a number of issues in Moscow and Beijing remaining mute and Iran claiming an entirely different interpretation and having doubts that the remaining difficulties would ever be bridged. I’m not sure those differences were ever ironed out nor does it appear that Iran has ever considered themselves to have made any promises to the Western World or the United Nations or anybody else. For the record, the Iranian parliament has never approved any deal that the United States or anybody else can honestly report and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has never signed any paperwork for a deal and thus Iran is not legally bound to anything just as the State Department freely admitted in a letter to Representative Mike (R-Kan.) of the House Intelligence Committee.

 

This admission simply echoes the actions by Tehran which has now made two test launches of ballistic missiles which would have definitively been forbidden by any deal admitted to exist by any of the Western Nations as well as the United Nations interpretations of the agreement, but nobody appears to be rearing up in reaction to these tests. There has been no ‘snapback’ of sanctions and the releasing of funds as theoretically agreed upon by western Nations in any version of a deal is proceeding along on schedule. Are we the only ones who seem concerned that there appears to be an agreement to free the dogs of nuclear ambitions in Iran while obliging the West to release the funds and remove all sanctions which might have proven to be an impediment and chaining the United States and European nations to back the Russian, Chinese and Iranian desires for business as usual as if there is not a care in the world? A quick check of news stories and it seems the most recent testing of another nuclear delivery capable continental ballistic missile, the most powerful yet and a decent sign that Iran is aiming for Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capabilities and is going at such capabilities with some vigor does concern any number of responsible adults. Unfortunately the closest the White House has come to a responsible adult has been United Nations Ambassador Samantha Power who stated at a Congressional hearing last week, “discussions are a form of U.N. action.” So, apparently the White House left Congress and themselves no actual control over sanctions and thus the possible ‘snapback’ is solely in the hands of the United Nations where such is an impossibility and even if the United States acted, theirs would necessarily be a whole new set of sanctions which are presumably forbidden by the presumed deal which is no deal and the White House would necessarily, as they have stated, veto any such sanctions. So as it currently sits, Iran will receive their $150 billion in unfrozen assets within the next six months, can test missiles to their hearts’ delight and all are to proceed as if there are sanctions on Iran when in reality the sanctions are on the Western Powers making sanctions near to impossible and now even the IAEA has officially surrendered before the Iranian games of guile as we reported recently in What the IAEA Closure of Their Iran Investigations Really Meant.

 

What has been successfully pulled off by deceptiveness, chicanery and outright lies is the freeing of Europe to return to their preferred business as usual and ignore the consequences, a similar aspect to their recent receipt of the first wave of ‘Syrian refugees’ and intent to make them legal citizens almost automatically which will grant them new visas from their new home nation and also grant them instant acceptance on the visa waiver program the United States shares with the European Union. What could be better as it has been made obvious that the vast majority of these ‘Syrian refugees’ are not Syrian, are not refugees, are not dirt poor losing everything in the civil war and Bashir al-Assad’s butchery and are intent on infiltrating the United States as they see Europe rightfully as all but conquered already. What we do have as the vast majority of these ‘Syrian refugees’ are military age single males with plenty of money and a penchant for rioting and causing disturbances and will very likely prove to be the tip of the spear with the only question being are they Islamic State, al-Qaeda, Taliban, or Iranian IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) trained infiltrators who have received some of the best training in sabotage and other disruptive acts and also master coordinators (community organizers on steroids). Whatever and whomever they are operating under, this sizeable sector of the ‘Syrian refugees’ who have poured into Europe, largely centered on Germany and the Scandinavian nations all of which have some of the best social services with the highest welfare payment structures in all of Europe, and with a fair share of the ‘Syrian refugees’ now headed to the final target on the list, the United Kingdom; their aims are becoming ever more clear, to bring Europe to its knees and then simply take charge of its remnants and turn it all over to whichever group manages to wrench control from the rest of the other groups. This simply means that the next front of the Syrian civil war turned Sunni-Shiite war will be being fought across Europe just as soon as the Christian and Atheist Secular Humanists have been murdered in large part or converted to Islam or converted to being good little worker Dhimmis producing for their new taskmasters. The alternative is a revolution by the Europeans themselves which will end very poorly for both sides as this will become very quickly a war of extermination and who will prove the strongest force and last group standing is in doubt though we would place our money on the home team as they know the landscape and will be fighting for their own survival and the survival of their way of life and the Europeans have proven their ability for warfare and the heritage to match. The question which needs answering is when, or should it be, will the European Union and the individual governments such as Angela Merkel’s Germany and François Hollande’s France wake from their utopian dream, which is proving to be a hellish nightmare for their people, before their nations are so overrun with ‘Syrian refugees’ that recovery has been made impossible? If not, does the average European have it within them to force their leaders to heed and save the lands before it is too late? The greatest of fears is that for Western Europe it may already be too late.

 

The other ramification of the ‘Syrian refugees’ problem is that with much of Eastern European nations, former Warsaw Pact nations plus Greece, have closed their borders allowing those who wish to take trains through to Germany and other points west with the train stations along the tracks well-guarded to force the ‘Syrian refugees’ through to all points west. What way will these nations be turning once NATO ceases to offer them any real protection? We see their returning to the Russian sphere of influence as Vladimir Putin (aka Vlad the Invader), offering a stronger arm in protecting them from the invading ‘Syrian refugees’ and all that encompasses, then turning to the seemingly feckless United States which has proven itself to be weak and unsupportive at best and traitorous at worst. Poland and the Czech Republic, despite being the victims of President Obama’s cancellation of the radar and anti-missile system which had been approved for delivery and operation on their bases, might hold out and wait to see who wins the 2016 United States elections though if pressed would likely seriously consider placing their bets on a sure thing, meaning Putin. And now we can probably name the three things which will be the Obama legacy; first, a nuclear armed Middle East tinderbox; second, a neutered United States military degraded to a point of near impotence; and third, removing any trust in the United States as her promises have been proven to be simply worthless if any change of administration can so abruptly and totally alter the realities and break any and all promises with allies apparently is just as easily done as it is with revolutions in third world nations. The last one which renders the United States as untrustworthy will prove to be the straw which breaks the camel’s back as if the word of the President of the United States is only good for as long as he or his party holds the Office of the President, then what worth does any Presidential promise hold? Even worse was that President Obama also went back on promises made by President Willian Jefferson Clinton which infers that even same party Presidencies may prove untrustworthy of keeping promises made by previous Presidents of their own party. One thing which has been made evidently obvious is that any nation relying on the United States to have their back had best also have their own Plan B just in case they find their back suddenly rendered vulnerable as their strongest protection of their back having quit and gone home prematurely. Further, depending on the United States to actually produce and make good on promises of weapons systems being completely dependent on any new President continuing with the production or delivery of promised systems should put the fear of heaven in them as the anti-missile systems and radar cancelled and the premature stoppage of production of the F-22 Raptor proved as that was the fighter the United States was counting on for granting her air superiority over any other nation, something the F-35 joint strike fighter does not and may even prove to be less of a fifth generation fighter when compared to the Eurofighter Typhoon or the Russian Sukhoi Su-27.

 

 

 

 

These are the lasting legacies of President Obama and they will all but destroy the faith in the world of any United States President for some time into the future until trust can be proven or given a legal basis. The only item which may be seen as trustworthy might be actual treaties which have the full backing of the congress and the Courts, including especially the Supreme Court and as such may be proven to be beyond the reach of any American President to negate by his or her own power without running afoul of the Courts and Congress. Even this will need to be seen by those who have been burnt the most by this administration and its complete disregard for precedent, Presidential respect for and by other administrations and potentially the rule of law which would make even treaties only as good as the President and congress who made them and otherwise potentially worthless. The United States is going to have to face these issues and either find some manner of placing the nation behind the promises of their Presidents going forward when a new President takes the office and has a different view of the world and sees the promises of the predecessor as unbinding upon them, that must be changed if the United States ever desires to be respected and trusted ever again. Perhaps it is time for a previously unthought of and seemingly unnecessary Amendment to the United States Constitution which will state that once the President and the Congress have declared use of the United States military to undertake a task that from that point forward or until a supermajority of two-thirds of both houses of congress and the President together call the mission complete, the military will remain on stations until the military Joint Chiefs of Staff declare the mission completed. Such an amendment would restore faith that once the United States military was deployed that they would not simply pull out leaving whatever governance they left in place completely vulnerable and it will cause the Congress and President to carefully spell out the necessary accomplishments of every mission long before troops would be deployed. Both of these required changes in the way troops are deployed and returned from deployment would make for stricter definitions of any mission and a clear promise that once the United States troops are deployed and tasked with supporting any government until said time that it has been stabilized and completely functioning with domain over all of its nation that the United States will not just pull out leaving a huge sucking sound of a vacuum which will almost always be filled by other than savory forces. Such would give real meaning to any military promise given by the Congress and President when forces are deployed to a long term mission which will necessarily be passed to the next President and his administration which would be powerless to end the mission unless the military top level commanders determined the mission completed.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Palestinian Authority and Where Did the Euros, Dollars, and Pounds All Go?

 

The Arabs are blaming Israel and the occupation and colonial oppressive rule for their money woes. Initially their audit by Tariq Dana, a senior research fellow at Birzeit University, as reported in the Arab Palestinian Authority (APA) news service, Ma’an News Agency, reported that the APA suffers from deeply ingrained corruption. But perhaps the APA is not entirely to blame as after all the APA was birthed from the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) which itself suffered from the very same deeply ingrained corruption. Of course it almost goes without saying that the PLO passed their tradition and systemic deeply ingrained corruption on into the very similar structure adopted in the whole flesh by the APA. According to the report, the APA corruption is, in effect, a self-enforcing system dependent upon the graft and deceit formed through what the report named, “patron-clientelism” which pretty much mimics what in the Western nations is called crony capitalism except that there is little to any capitalism in the APA ruled areas. The report claimed that all this ingrained corruption which will be near impossible to weed out as it is simply the way things get done, will get done and always have gotten done ever since during the management by the PLO used a system, “during the 1980s, the PLO leadership used the Sumud (steadfastness) Fund…which was formally channeled through the Palestinian-Jordanian joint committee…to award their supporters and exclude others.”

 

In the report Dana noted that, “After the Oslo Accords, the patron-client regime was unsurprisingly inherited by the (A)PA and constituted the backbone of its institutional base.” It was mentioned that the corruption was “associated with the personalized and unaccountable style of governance of late PLO chairman Yasser Arafat and the Palestinian political leadership.” Using the first audit of the APA back in 1997, because, after all, every organization waits for four years after their inception to submit to a formal audit as why find out what is wrong at the start when maybe it could be repaired, found nearly forty percent of the APA budget, equaling around three-hundred-twenty-six-million dollars, was misappropriated. Dana continued pointing out that there is a continued system of corruption which has been strengthened through a massive public sector of “over 165,000 civil servants who are fully dependent on salaries guaranteed by international aid to the (A)PA.” The report further pointed to another problem area spawning from, Dana explained, “The dysfunction of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) and the complete absence of legislative monitoring of the governmental budget have freed the presidency and the executive from institutional checks-and-balances and public accountability.”

 

 

Yasser Arafat takes oath to be the greatest of all when it came to setting up a culture of deeply ingrained corruption as head of the PLO. When the PLO was granted authenticity as the (A)PA, Yasser Arafat brought that culture of deeply ingrained corruption with him. Upon the death of Yasser Arafat, Mahmoud Abbas, his faithful second in command all these years, proved to be no slouch when it came to continuing the culture of deeply ingrained corruption. Now the world continues, especially the Europeans, contributing the billions of Euros, Dollars, and Pounds we can never ask as to where they all have gone. We know, but must never speak or the whole house of cards will fall and all will be wearing the blame.

 

 

The report went into an area which seemed unusual for an audit but proved interesting to read, at least more interesting than any of the numbers and other banalities. The report cited an explanation that the APA public sector may be massive and corrupt, but it also is very fickle for employees. It gave the following example, “If employees express criticism of (A)PA policies, they are likely to be forced into early retirement, denied salary payments, or arbitrarily removed from their posts. They may also face a series of punitive measures, including denial of promotion or transfer to distant areas.” Special mention went to the Ministry of Local Government which is an interesting way by which the APA uses money distributed to those recognizes mukhtars, tribe heads and heads of influential families allowing them to speak on behalf of those who they control thus extending further the propagation of the corrupt hierarchical system.

 

But the best part of the entire report are the conclusions as to who is to blame and from where this deeply ingrained corruption was imposed upon the APA and the PLO likely before them. Yes, you guessed it, Israel. The only way to explain this stretch is to quote the report as given in the article. According to the report the APA corruption “played into the hands of the Israeli government, whose intention in signing the Oslo accords was to create a client state that they could continue to control through the rents distributed to the (A)PA via international donors, coupled with a strategy of territorial fragmentation and containment.” Even worse, “Israel has repeatedly contributed to and exploited corruption in the (A)PA. It has done so in order to place the blame on the Palestinians for their economic ills and to distract attention from the devastating impact of its colonial policies on Palestinian social and economic development.” And further, even if the corruption was not any base for the economic problems, the report concludes, “Although corruption within the (A)PA is undoubtedly harmful economically, it is worth noting that its effects are a distant second to the impact of systemic Israeli destruction of the Palestinian economy.”

 

The conclusion that the systemic deeply ingrained corruption being caused by Israel must be caused by the Israel Electric Company (IEC) charging the APA for the electricity provided to the areas under their autonomy where the IEC provides electricity for the Palestinian electric provider. The only problem is that the electricity provider is government owned by the APA and they have fallen years behind in their payments. Actually, records show that the Arab Palestinian electric company has not paid for the electricity they have received for at least the past decade, if ever. Further, when the Israeli government has attempted to divert tax monies due the APA to cover their overdue electric bill the European Union and numerous European governments, NGOs and European financed Israeli NGOs go into apoplectic shock decrying the possible end of the world being upon the earth as the APA is being held to normal rules and forced to actually pay for the electricity they have already consumed. The IEC gave notice to the APA that if they made no effort to mitigate their outstanding balance then the IEC would be left with no alternative but to cut off the power provided by the Israeli company. You would have thought that the IEC had threatened to steal all their children’s toys or some other diabolical horrific act by the reactions from all quarters starting with the United Nations, United States State Department and the European Union among other NGOs and nations from every continent reacting with shock and amazement that the Israeli government would permit this private company from cutting power to a group who had not made any effort for over a decade to pay for the electricity they had consumed. The Israeli government instead of turning a deaf ear to the whiners from the world over instead threatened the IEC and then cajoled them and twisted their corporate arms pressing them to continue to provide electricity to the APA free of charge.

 

If anyone believes that the APA in Judea and Samaria are not meeting their obligations, they have nothing on Hamas and friends in Gaza. Israel provides Gaza with most of its potable water and over half of its electricity and receives no payments for these provisions. Additionally, Israel sends a full trainload of tractor trailer rigs with full loads across the border crossing every single day, even on the Sabbath and, believe it or not, even every day last summer including during the Operation Protective Edge. The Israelis continued to transport tons of food and medical supplies every day during the weeks of war with Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the other terrorist groups every single day despite the fighting. Israel also continued to provide electricity and water as if nothing was different and in complete disregard for the state of war. Why would Israel do something so completely counterintuitive? Oddly enough the reason you would receive from the Israeli government, the IDF or any official in the Israeli government would be that while the people of Gaza elected Hamas to be their government the people cannot be held responsible for that same government they elected and anyways, Israel is not at war with the people of Gaza, just the terrorist groups which conduct rocket attacks and other violent acts against Israelis. Does any of this make one iota of sense? Of course not. Why would the Israeli government do such a thing? Fear of what the world would think and that somebody in Europe, especially in Brussels at the headquarters of the European Union might throw a hissy fit and say mean and nasty things about Israel and that would hurt Bibi’s feelings and we know we must not hurt Bibi’s feelings or that of anybody in Europe, Judea, Samaria, Gaza or at the next meeting of the Arab League or the United Nations Human Rights Council. It sure is not to receive any credit for doing what is right and humane even when it works in direct contradiction to the good of Israel and her people.

 

What can we deduce from all of this? Well, first thing is if the APA has some systemic financial difficulties, it must not be ascribed to the APA as they are the ones who must never be held responsible. Well, if it cannot be the APA, who can we as the powers of the world blame? Well, the United States claims, “not us,” the European Union says, “don’t look at us,” while the United Nations disputes their complicity and the Arab League suggest, “Let’s blame Israel, they did it,” and the others all look knowingly at each other nodding and they all blame Israel. How can Israel fight the world powers, the world media, especially the mainstream media and leftist media and fight the combined power of every United Nations organization, the world’s majority of NGOs and a general sense of anti-Semitism which holds the Jewish Nation as the scapegoat for all the ills of the world? The fight is an uphill fight and it is about to take a particularly nasty turn when Israel goes from being blamed for any and all opposition to the current Iran Nuclear Deal reached between Iran and the P5+1 and soon after Iran turns nuclear then Israel will likely be blamed for not opposing Iran with sufficient stridency and for not taking the necessary steps to prevent Iran from acquiring the necessary tools and abilities to produce nuclear weapons. Then the world will look to Israel and demand what they plan to do about the Iranian nuclear weapons and then demand to know when Israel plans to act. The realty comes down to Israel is demanded to stand down and not act and then blamed when nothing was done. Israel is pushed to act to repair a grand mistake made by other nations and then condemned for acting. It is the old situation of, and we will use blasted for a better and more familiar term; blasted if they do and blasted if they don’t, can’t win for losing. Take it as you wish but the thing the world had best understand, Iran needs Israel as the monster behind the Iranian governments every unsolved problem, that position does not transfer as well to the United States or Europe, so Israel has an upside down insurance policy; in it is the safety which Iran can blame for all its ills while Iran has little use for the Great Satan when the little Satan will do and once the United States is rendered muted as the great Satan then Europe becomes the next Great Satan. Anyway, Israel is well practiced at taking the blame in stride and will depend on being blamed as everyone else tries to explain why they were targeted. Must be wonderful to be any of you.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Is the Choice Between the “Deal” or War, Period?

 

The working agreement between the P5+1, and primarily President Obama, with the Iranians will in this discussion be referred to as the “Deal” for simplicity’s sake. This Deal has been panned by conservatives and anti-terror specialists as being dangerous and potentially deadly accords. It has been predicted that Iran will easily become a major economic power the equivalent of Saudi Arabia with the infusion of one-hundred-fifty-billion dollars and its resurgence into the oil market even at todays lowered prices, a situation caused by Saudi Arabia pumping oil at near peak levels intending to damage the economies of the Iranians and hurting Russia as well in the interim. The pain caused the Iranians will be offset by the cash infusion. The one thing we can be thankful for the warning but feel accursed by the aimed for results was the announcement after the signing of the Deal by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that his intentions are to utilize the cash infusion to resupply and rearm his terror proxies to levels believed impossible until a few days ago with the announcement of the Deal crafter by the Iranian demands and the quickness with which Secretary of State Kerry (to be referred to as ‘SKerry’ through the remainder of the article) revealed to be at the orders of President Obama, folded his hand and capitulated to every command and refusal to accept any limitations or requirements upon Iran thus in the final weeks of negotiations surrendering virtually every gain pressed forth through great efforts by the rest of the P5+1 from Iran. There was a glimmer of hope against hope that the Deal might crumble at the last minute due to the honor and integrity shown earlier in the negotiations when the initial framework was decided before the initial six-month pushback of the deadline for producing an agreement when the French Foreign Minister vetoed the framework only to be pressed by President Obama and his minions with a small cosmetic change in the phrasing of a minor item was made as the reason for the French veto though most believed the problems were more systemic than that one minor, insignificant item which was altered.

 

Back to the question at hand; is the Choice Between the “Deal” or War? One item which has to be brought into the consideration is some of the terms as far as items to be provided to Iran by the United States or other members of the P5+1 or any other entities. We have heard that the United States will be providing additional cyber protection with a mentioned direction of protecting the entirety of the Iranian nuclear research, development and particularly their enrichment program from interference, especially from Israeli cyber capabilities above and beyond other cyber assaults. There has been mention that President Obama through his lackey SKerry promised the Iranians that they could expect United States to provide air security both from the ground in Iraq as well as from the naval taskforce including, if necessary, from the aircraft deployed from the carrier in the Arabian Gulf. This guarantee appears to include, as some reports have stated, shooting down Israeli fighters should the situation demand such, and the expressed targeting of Israeli forces was exactly as heard. How much further to the other side the Administration will stray from the normative distance it has shown former allies making them into potentially targets of United States military assets is far beyond anything expected by any number of Americans who voted for President Obama, particularly my Jewish friends.

 

What does this paint for the future for Israel? Israel can feel a little less alone in her neighborhood as Egypt and Saudi Arabia along with their allies along the gulf coast are all in the same sinking boat right now. Unfortunately this situation will not aid Israel immensely. Where Saudi Arabia and Egypt might be cooperating, Israel should not expect any overt or announced cooperation from her new friends or even any thanks should Israel take actions which prevent Iranian production of nuclear weapons. Should the United States have actually sent orders to their military to intercept any attack on Iran, that could make any attack on Iran extremely problematic. By now Israel will hopefully have figured out that informing the United States of their intents is not tactically the brightest move available. This causes more problems than many might realize as there are numerous Israelis both within the IDF and within the government who believe it is their specific responsibility to announce every move to the corresponding department within the American government. This would require that care be taken on who might be trusted with any information and orders which were given to implement actions against the Iranian nuclear sites. Any such attempt to neutralize the Iranian nuclear sites had best be discussed with trustworthy advisors alone and should be tested as one of a number of potential interventions when being discussed with people having knowledge of the Iranian government and their expected and especially unexpected reactions and in plane plans made to address any resultant actions by Iran and her many allies and proxies. Further, Israeli intelligence should be on alert to find out the plans by any other actors as Iran has promised a reign of terror upon Israel should any attack be taken on their nuclear programs or any other resources within Iran.

 

The brilliance displayed by President Obama and his advisors which has been displayed through such exercises and actual events as Benghazi which was determined to be a response to a YouTube Video with about five thousand views before it was referenced by the Administration. There was the success of President Obama’s brilliant collapsing of al-Qaeda and how “stable governments” were taking form and President Obama gave as the prime example Yemen which burst into civil war overthrowing the “stable government” and forced to flee the Capital and head to the next largest city where two or three days later they were forced to flee again and have barely been heard from since. But we have heard from Iran and their arming of the Houthis and we have heard from Saudi Arabia which is supporting any entity which stands against the Iranian proxies, the Houthis. It is almost as if the Iranians are seeking anywhere and everywhere to make President Obama look the fool, but he and Secretary SKerry are too busy strutting their stuff purporting the great Deal they made and how it will prevent any need for a war to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons. The Deal puts that the probability for setting the date for an Iranian nuclear weapon to be about a decade from now, give or take two, three or four years assuming that Iran gets caught in the web of intrigue and becomes entangled in all the minutia placed there to prevent an Iran desperate to please the West and the United States and Israel in particular but is absolutely useless against an Iran that intends to bull rush straight through any supposed restrictions in the Deal.

 

When asked what would happen if Iran simply took the one-hundred-fifty-billion dollars which are being released and used the improved centrifuge plans provided and open some undeclared enrichment laboratories in order to build nuclear weapons, warheads to be exact, with intent to make their warheads clandestinely and quickly; the administration replied with stunned disbelief stuttered slowly, but the Deal does not permit such actions and how dare you cast doubts about the Deal as it is a good deal fashioned for a good people to obey its restrictions and Iran had promised to abide by its restrictions. There appears to be a mental disconnect between President Obama and Secretary SKerry making them incapable of addressing any potential shortcomings of their deal and how it may prove completely impossible at restraining any government which practices subterfuge and dishonesty as stark principles reminiscent of the Germans after the Munich Agreement of 1938 which inevitably led to war within two years as Germany had since then annexed Austria, absorbed the rest of Czechoslovakia, and proceeded to make the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact agreement with Russia by which the two powers invaded hapless Poland from opposite ends and met in the middle thus starting World War II.

 

Iran will not need to make any additional agreements as they have sufficient agreements in place to provide them with control of a large crescent starting at the Indian Ocean and cutting a swath of land passing through the Middle East passing through Iran, southern Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and ending in the Mediterranean Sea. Currently Syria is in remission but the cash spigot is about to come wide open and as promised by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his friends will be rearmed and strengthened and will soon have all the necessary weapons and assistance to take the offensive. Add to this the promises from President Obama to provide a wall of protection both in the virtual domain and in the realm of the real where he promises have been made to prevent any and all assaults mounted, in particular, by Israel or any of her new-found allies. Of course by now the farthest reaching terms of the Deal have reached all those who have been waiting anxious to begin to understand what threats may be coming their way and if so, how long do they have to prepare. For Saudi Arabia, they know already that they have zero time as the fighting is on their southern and northern borders with the Yemeni Houthis fighting the Sunnis on their southern border and Iraqi Shia forces tangling with the Islamic State and Iranian backed and augmented Iraqi units facing off. Where most of the fighting has been between Shia and Sunni forces Iran has been known to finance Sunni groups as long as they did not bring any shame upon Iran, something amazingly enough accomplished by Hamas as Iran has cut their relations with Hamas, a blessing we would rather just accept and be thankful for small favors. Many of the groups and states supported by Iran is done simply to further the spread of the ideology and dogma of Shiite Islam and to bring as many misguided Islamic Sunni souls into the embracing arms of Shiite Islam and there is the we have the struggle of the ages. But in addition to this struggle there are the other tactical struggles. Iran desires to amass to themselves the rich oil fields of southern and central Iraq, the Saudi oil fields as well as the oil fields of the Gulf States including any offshore drilling. Additionally Iran believed that the time has arrived that the Shiite form of Islam becomes the dominant form supplanting Sunni through conversion by way of persuasion initially and by force if that becomes necessary. The Iranians also know the importance in geography and in particular of choke points. In that desire Iran definitely has desires to take control of both sides of the Straits of Hormuz, they seek ownership of Oman and the United Arab Emirates and for control of Bab el Mandeb Straits which is fueling much of their desire to have the Houthis control Yemen and be holding to Iran for their victories.

 

Meanwhile, the problem facing Israel as well as much of the Sunni Islamic world, though few would be capable of doing much about Iranian hegemony, is the prevention of permitting Iran to attain nuclear weapons and in particular what is referred to as weaponized delivery systems, a long way of saying miniaturized warheads. The reason for this is two-fold; the first being the obvious in that a rocket is limited in range by three factors, the first is the amount of fuel it can hold which is pretty much set by its initial design, second is the efficiency of the rocket motor, which consists of the combustion chamber, the valves, the atomizer, and some complex combinations in sizes and diameters which is called rocket science for a reason, and finally the weight of the warhead. This is where miniaturizing brings home the benefits as the weight of the warhead is by far the easiest part of a rocket or missile that the user can address. If we have a warhead that weights one-kilogram and a rocket which can hold one-kilogram then that is the limit you can arm said rocket with. But if you can miniaturize the warhead with a superior design which brings its weight down to three-hundred grams then you can place three warheads on that rocket and because that still allows for one-hundred additional grams that are not going to be used then the range of the rocket or missile just increased by almost ten percent, not that would be something as your miniaturization had tripled the capacity of the device’s damage capacity but also increased the range of the weapons package. This is where Iran will need to develop its technology as, just because you can produce a nuclear device does not necessarily mean one can deliver the weapon efficiently and here size and weight are the twin kings, especially if the intent is to place warheads atop missiles or within aircraft.

 

The best example of the difference is that the initial bombs the United States dropped on Japan to end World War II were huge in size by today’s standards. Their names were Little Boy (a uranium gun-type atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945) and Fat Man (a plutonium implosion-type bomb on the city of Nagasaki on August 9) both of which took a Silverplate Boeing B-29 Superfortress aircraft. The Enola Gay, named after its Pilot Colonel Paul W. Tibbets’ mother carried Little Boy to its target of Hiroshima while, like William Dawes who was the other rider with Paul Revere and who actually made the warnings as Revere was captured by the British but Dawes proved too difficult to rhyme so it became “The Midnight Ride of Paul Revere” and not William Dawes, while the B-29 named Bockscar piloted by Major Charles W. Sweeney whose plane was not named after either of his parents, carried Fat Man over Nagasaki. Each of these atomic bombs had yields under twenty-thousand-kilograms of TNT (Trinitrotoluene C6H2(NO2)3CH3) which is considered quite low compared with modern thermonuclear devices which carry yields measured in Mega-tons of TNT yet are so much smaller than the original devices that if a B-29 were to carry modern weapons they could carry numerous bombs each with multiple warheads though the plane would likely not be capable of flying high enough and fast enough to clear the area before detonation though with a lighter load it might have a prayer’s chance.

 

Silverplate B-29 Superfortress Enola Gay, named after its Pilot Colonel Paul W. Tibbets’ mother, carried Little Boy to its target of Hiroshima

 

Silverplate B-29 Superfortress Bockscar of the 509th Composite Group which dropped an atomic bomb on Nagasaki piloted by Major Charles W. Sweeney

 

Silverplate B-29 Superfortress Enola Gay with Pilot Col Paul Tibbets, named after its Pilot Colonel Paul W. Tibbets’ mother carried Little Boy to its target of Hiroshima historic picture og man and his aircraft

 

 

So, even should Iran detonate a trial nuclear bomb, depending on its yield, it could be determined what variety of device was detonated and what the intended use might be. A really low yield but leaving a high gamma radiation signature would signal they had developed an EMP bomb used to knock out electronic grids and sensitive electronics rendering entire weapons systems useless, especially those dependent on radar from ground based systems such as any aircraft batteries and other targeting systems as well as most command and control as they are dependent on computers and communications networks, both systems very vulnerable to an EMP attack. Such a device could spell a real disaster for most nations but mostly the United States or Europe as both societies are heavily dependent on communications for their economy, computers for their investment and banking systems, their electrical grids for refrigeration and for hospital equipment, and for supplying virtually everything as the majority of vehicles currently depend on computers to run and both Television and radio would be knocked out which in itself and without computers the United States would go completely bonkers within hours.

 

The real problem is that with the United States presumably defending the nuclear sites from military attacks and from cyber-attacks as well as providing advanced radar systems from aboard naval vessels matched to anti-missile interceptors of various types including jamming and interception, and have aircraft capable of taking out any aircraft identified as foreign and entering Iranian air-space with unclear intent or bombs hanging under the wings defiantly stating its mission, all of which means that for the foreseeable future the United States has joined the other side even against the people of the United States who knowingly continue to reside in the Great Satan and have yet to mend their ways and become good Dhimmis living the life in burka-land. The real question is how Iran can be derailed from attaining nuclear weapons, and not just any nuclear weapons, but miniaturized, weaponized, multiple-warhead, thermonuclear devices and the stealth cruise missiles capable of three-thousand-five-hundred mile routing at under fifty meters altitude and what would be the consequences to the nation which so took one for the team, and not necessarily an appreciative team? Because of the United States provided protection, should this continue to be the United States policy by the next President elected in November 2016 and taking office in mid-January 2017 no matter what their reasoning, such would mean that Iran might have such capabilities before they become easily targeted. This situation would present the parts of the world under threat, oddly enough including the United States, in so desperate a position that they might see tempting a shootout with the United States over Iran as giving them better hopes of survival than waiting for another President as by then protecting Iran would have become cemented policy that only the most assured and confident of Presidents would go against meaning there would be no end in sight. Boy, that sure is a SKerry Deal President Obama has there.

 

Beyond the Cusp