Beyond the Cusp

March 21, 2017

Syria Attempting to Broaden War Threatening Israel

 

Israel sent her warplanes into Syria this past weekend in order to intercept yet another attempted shipment of weapons potentially including advanced anti-aircraft missiles into Lebanon arming further the Hezballah terrorists who rule the Bekaa Valley and most of Lebanon south of the Litani River. Hezballah has already taken control of most of Lebanon and has indirect, more like reviewing rights of any actions or laws, of the Lebanese government, an improvement of sorts over the direct rule they held a few years back. Apparently trying to rule and fight wars with Israel was taking too great a threat of Israel holding Lebanon responsible. Now Lebanon has been afforded plausible deniable for Hezballah military actions which has not helped much with the events across the border and within their borders with Syria. The length of the reach by Hezballah included their required approval of choice for the new Prime Minister when the new government was formed. Full display of both Lebanon’s difficulty and the threat to Israel are obvious in the map below. Syria will try to drag Israel into the war once again so they can claim to be fighting a holy war against the Zionist entity and will use all of Hezballah’s abilities if need be to accomplish this. That makes the weapons Hezballah already possess and any they are able to smuggle all the more important and why Israel must prevent certain weapons systems of ever being smuggled into Lebanon and to Hezballah forces there. That was the reason for the raid and why there may be more in the future with each one presenting the same difficulties.

 

Map Depicting Hezballah Control in Lebanon Thanks to Syrian and Iranian Assistance

Map Depicting Hezballah Control in Lebanon
Thanks to Syrian and Iranian Assistance

 

Israeli sources including Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman reported the raid was a success and that all planes returned and were undamaged. The Syrians reported things differently claiming to have shot down one Israel aircraft and damaging another. No pictures of the destroyed Israeli plane were provided to back the Syrian claims and they have made similar claims on previous occasions including once against American aircraft under President Obama’s brief attempt at a Syrian campaign against Islamic State. The Syrians also fired four missiles into Israel with one being intercepted by the Arrow III system which was the first real world use of the system which operated well in all aspects. The remaining three landed in open areas, two in the Israel area of the Jordan Valley and the final one landed in Jordan reportedly causing no damage or loss of life. The attempt by Syria to provide their Hezballah ally with rockets is far from new and Israel has taken to only intercepting weapon systems which would provide Hezballah with additional capabilities with the most serious being anti-aircraft missiles and anti-ship missiles. The Iranians have been attempting to provide the Hezballah terrorists with the Chinese C803 anti-ship missiles as well as SAM missile batteries of a more advanced series than those in the Bekaa Valley already. This probably requires an update on the extent to which Hezballah has been rearmed since the United Nations, United States and European Union guaranteed after the Second Lebanon War as part of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 and the doubling the size of the UNIFIL forces who were assigned to prevent Hezballah from rebuilding their tunnel and bunker systems and rearming with rockets, let alone missiles.

 

The UNIFIL forces have been photographed allowing and even assisting in loading their trucks to move Hezballah munitions, armaments, rockets and personnel around in southern Lebanon south of the Litani River, the area where they are presumably tasked to prevent Hezballah from accomplishing such minor details. Hezballah had completely restructured their tunnel systems, underground bunkers, and massively extended these systems and improved their command and control as well as their communications systems and networks. This will have massive positive effect on their abilities and lethality should there ever be a need for Israel to attempt to blunt their threat to Israeli existence. Before the Second Lebanon War Hezballah was suspected of having stocks reaching as high as thirty-five-thousand rockets of which a very small percentage were of the larger varieties able of reaching beyond Haifa and even fewer which had any guidance whatsoever. This had vastly changed. Their current armaments include tens of thousands of missiles with ranges reaching the entire length of Israel carrying as high as five-hundred kilo warheads which also makes the nuclear arms capable. The various names are easy to remember and they are with their range, diameter and payloads as follows:

Katyusha approx. 132mm diameter range 10 kilometer with a 5 kg payloads
FAJR-3 approx. 240mm diameter range of 43 kilometer with a 45 kg payload
FAJR-5 approx. 233mm diameter range of 75 kilometer with a 175 kg payload
Fateh-110/M-600 approx. 0.61 m diameter range of 300 kilometer with a 500-650 kg payload
Zelzal-2 approx. 610 mm diameter range of 210 kilometer with a 600 kg payload
SKUD-D approx. 0.88 m diameter range of 700 kilometer with a 1000 kg payload

The map below indicates the ranges as they pertain to Israel and the danger becomes evident, very evident. This is one of many reasons that Israel has developed the world’s most advanced layered missile defense systems and is working on secondary and triple level means of intercepting all varieties of indirect weaponry including missiles, rockets, artillery and mortars. Israelis are thankful as many lives have been saved and apparently more will need these systems in the future, which is unfortunate.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

Hezballah has not just tens of thousands of rockets and missiles but somewhere approaching two-hundred-thousand of varying sizes and capabilities. Additionally, there have been reports that through captured weaponry from various Syrian rebel groups that Hezballah has come into possession of a limited number of American MANPAD anti-aircraft weapons as well as similar systems designed from Russian and Chinese types of anti-aircraft weapons of a similar nature. These anti-aircraft and any anti-ship missiles which the Iranians have managed to provide to Hezballah are amongst the most dangerous should another war break out. The last war already provided ample indications that Hezballah has received numerous effective anti-tank rockets and have developed very effective tactics for their deployment. This was one area which the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) needed to develop some form of countermeasures. The greatest threat is to the Israeli public as Hezballah’s numbers of missiles are sufficient to use for swarm attacks as they can lose large numbers to interception providing they are able to get some percentage through the Israeli defenses. The numbers of missiles makes air superiority a necessity which is why Israel cannot allow large numbers or advanced air defenses to be provided to Hezballah as only through air superiority can Israel successfully destroy the stores of missiles and their launchers before they are sent in numbers over Israeli cities such as Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Ashdod, Ashkelon, Beersheba and numerous others.

 

The difference between Hezballah and Israel is a familiar one but still important to mention while we are on the subject. First, Hezballah uses identical tactics as does Hamas and will the PLO, which is to say the Palestinian Authority when they decide they have gained all they can through blackmail and using the world to demand Israel kowtow to demands for their surrender and return to their terrorist ways, which means firing from behind the people they claim to protect while Israel does everything possible to protect civilians, both Israeli and Palestinians. Hezballah has placed their rocket launchers inside civilian homes and place their command bunkers under hospitals, schools and even Mosques. They defend their positions using civilians and store their weapons and rockets in civilian’s homes, Mosques and schools. Hezballah builds tunnels and bunkers in which they secure their fighters and civilians are forced to remain on the surface usually near Hezballah fighter locations. Further, Hezballah uses villages and towns as their operations centers and builds fighting positions within these locations often people’s homes, schools and other public locations. The Hezballah tactic is to maximize civilian deaths, hardships and destruction of civilian structures all such that at the end of the conflict they can show this destruction to the media as proof of Israel offenses claiming the Israelis simply attacked civilian homes and structures out of spite and not because of their being used as military enforcements. Often the media can tell the claims are bogus as they can see the fortifications and still take their photographs using such angles so as to avoid displaying the fortifications while maximizing the obvious damage. Often the media has their photos and stories edited by Hezballah and in order to be permitted to return and cover future events each media outlet is required to follow the Hezballah story otherwise their entire news service will be barred from covering anything in Lebanon. Meanwhile, in Israel the media is permitted complete freedom and is free from any forms of censorship whatsoever which is why often the bad stories come out about Israel while Israeli enemies always get star treatment by the media. Israel suffers from the identical media difficulty that the United States also faces with total freedom of the media. When you have no operational control over the media and their stories and your enemy exercises total media control and is willing to lie and the media willingly follows along with their messages, it should be no surprise that Israel has the media difficulty.

 

The final warping of the media coverage is the often result in civilian casualties between Israel and her enemies. The extensive efforts that Israel goes to in order to keep its civilians protected, its enemies all spend seemingly an equal amount of effort to maximize the destruction of civilian structures and the numbers of dead and injured civilians they are able to produce. This leads to a high civilian casualty count while Israel often suffers minimal civilian deaths and casualties. Israelis are well trained and are conscious of the closest shelter when there is a war and are willing to drop anything including prayers to head to their closest shelter. Israel’s enemy governments and terror forces consider shelters as a waste of resources which could be better used to purchase weapons. This leads to a civilian casualty count in Israel often approaching zero while her enemies who place their fighting forces and weapons stores and rocket tubes within civilian homes and use civilians as human shields suffer civilian casualties in the tens, hundreds or unfortunately thousands. Still, it has been shown and witnessed that Israel does far more than any other military to protect and avoid civilian casualties on either side even to the point of calling off strikes to avoid civilian casualties even when the civilians have voluntarily gathered to protect terrorists. The IDF is amongst, if not the, most moral military in all history. Don’t take our word for it; listen to Colonel Richard Kemp in the video below giving evidence to the United Nations.

 

 

An example came when the IDF had three terrorist leaders holed up in a Mosque in Gaza. The IDF troops refused to enter the Mosque as this is something they avoid out of respect for a house of worship (you never want to see what Israel’s enemies do to captured Synagogues). Hamas radio called for women to rush to the Mosque with some extra burkas and within minute’s two dozen women in burkas and some carrying burkas entered the Mosque. Soon afterwards, the women left the Mosque as a mob hiding the three terrorists wearing burkas somewhere in the group. The IDF officer ordered his men to simply leave as the alternative would have been unthinkable for IDF soldiers to potentially appear to accost Muslim women.

 

In conclusion, the problem facing Israel also involves Russia as the ally and enforcement arm of Syria. Israel coordinates with the Russian commanders before sending any aircraft into Syrian airspace such that Russian and Israeli aircraft are not in conflict. Thus far, by all information, the Russians have not been sharing such information with the Syrians intentionally but there is obviously some leakage. When Bashir al-Assad’s military commanders receive hints or information of an imminent Israeli strike they inform their militias and other unattached forces who have been armed and often actually are Hezballah and receiving support directly from Iran. Syria would love to open a front against Israel in the hopes of internationalizing the war and bringing it before the United Nations General Assembly where Israel will be once again denounced. The end result will be a front opened across the Golan Heights with Hezballah attacking from the Israeli northern border backed by the Lebanese Army which is American armed including tanks and aircraft. As they have already been given these arms, the merging of the Lebanese Army with Hezballah being placed under their control, Israel may be facing the combined forces of Hezballah, Lebanon, Syrians and presumably independent militias all of which are backed by Russia. Russia is not in any means taking action against Israel and with Iran gathering forces and aligning forces under a unified command group independent of the Russians, is going to put Putin into a delicate position. When these forces finally open a full force assault upon Israel in an attempt to bring things before the United Nations where Israel will be blamed for initiating the violence and this will place Russia in the position of deciding whether to pull out of Syria demanding that their port facilities in Latakia as Russian protected territory and otherwise Russian forces will stand down and release Syria to its fate or Russia continuing to back Syria and very possibly be drawn into a war with Israel. Should Russia engage Israeli forces, be it on the Golan Heights or against aircraft in Syrian or Lebanese territories, then what does the United States do and NATO and the United Nations. There is a distinct possibility that the United States will use these events to press Israel into making a crippling series of concessions to Abbas giving him his state with the Green Line as a border as a prerequisite for continued aid while facing the war on the Israeli north against Syria, Lebanon, Hezballah, and full Russian assistance and Iran who will also add another front at some point using Hamas on the Israeli southern border along Gaza and with aid of militias along the Sinai-Negev front. This would soon include the Palestinian Authority as Abbas would be overthrown immediately after the forced peace and the withdrawal of the IDF either by ISIS or Hamas bringing this as well as the final front. This could lead to Israel fighting a war with fronts on all borders even to include the Mediterranean Sea leaving Israel in a desperate war for her existence and Israel would at best finally establish her borders as the Jordan River and hold the southern borders while establishing the Litani River and Golan Heights as their northern border and end these wars by establishing defendable borders with the downside of the entire nations requiring the rebuilding of her entire infrastructure. It would take Israel over a decade to rebuild but once the restructure has been completed, Israel would be the envy of the world when it comes to infrastructure and the Third Temple would be constructed and the Arabs who are unwilling to live supporting the Jewish State deported and finally a bright future before her.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 15, 2017

Save Me Your Holier than Thou, We Paid Our Dues; so You Cannot Demand Our Obedience

 

First we would like to thank those American Jews and Christians who donated to Israeli funds and other interests. We appreciate your visiting and spending your tourist dollars here. We do appreciate the fact that your advice is well-intended and that you only mean for Israel to be the best that is possible. We understand that your desires are for Israel to be the moral example for the world and for us to act in such a manner that everybody will love us. We also understand when you complain that our actions reflect upon you and often appear to make your lives difficult. We understand that sometimes you cannot find any way of defending some of the actions Israel uses and the methods by which we seek to preserve Israel’s existence. We are aware of why you are so furious over Israel’s new travel ban on those who view Israel as an “apartheid” state; oppose the Israeli “settlement” of the Jewish homeland; and fight to isolate and de-legitimize Israel by boycotting Israeli academics, speakers, leaders, and products. We understand that you view this in the same light as Trump’s temporary immigration ban on merely seven Arab states where vetting those arriving from these places is next to impossible.

 

We understand that you feel you would be a hypocrite should you so oppose Trumps actions and simply allow with a wink and a nod Israel to act similarly. We even understand those who have threatened to stop contributing to Israeli funds unless we act properly. Well, allow us to reply, thanks, but no thanks. Keep your monies if that is your desire and please end your endless preaching and demanding that Israel act such that you are comfortable with our actions. Contrary to your opinion, Israel is not around for you to wear on your bracelet as if it were a charm which you can display to your friends and say see how nicely they act always forgiving every slight and never ever taking a hard line against those who would kill every Israeli if only they had the weapons with which to do so. See how they try so hard to diplomatically resolve their problems with those who are launching rockets at their children’s kindergarten and fire rockets timed with the start and end of the school day. Aren’t the Israelis just the most liberal and caring people always taking in whatever refugees appear on their border even when many of them only come to commit heinous acts of terror and act belligerently, especially to the Israeli women and the elderly.

 

This is not going to happen and you are going to have to just settle for the fact that Israel is a nation like every other nation in that sometimes it will need to act in ways which possibly the majority of the world, especially when it is Israel acting so, will go into an uproar denouncing Israel and those doing so might include you or those you know. Sometimes you are not going to be able to defend Israeli actions to your leftist friends who love to point out how Israel is just as bad as every other nation. We know that such is a lie and those making those claims would demand Israel commit suicide and still would complain we were not giving enough. That is just too bad because Israel does act and plan to remain a viable nation able to defend her borders. This requires that these borders are defendable in the first place. That means that we are not going to surrender everything the world would demand of us. We gave away Gaza and that resulted in a disaster yet the world immediately pocketed that generous act of faith and immediately demanded we surrender Judea and Samaria to the same people whose last gift resulted in Hamastan on our southern border and a menace for Egypt in the Sinai Peninsula. Were we to repeat that mistake and the same happen in Judea and Samaria these very same people from the United Nations, European Union and nations around the world would demand we give away the Negev next as proof we wish to get along with the rest of the world. Well, if suicide is what is required to get along with the rest of the world, guess we will not be getting along and you will have to live with these facts such that we can live period.

 

There appears to be a growing existence particularly in the United States believing that Israel must run every decision past a select group of important people who are far more knowledgeable when it comes to policies and what would best serve their desires which Israel should be required to commit to such that they will feel proud to be considered supporters. Should Israel disappoint them, then the Israeli government should be replaced and these same self-serving people should be the final arbiters as to who should run the nation. Those with whom they disagree should be relegated into the minority and only those who are amongst the approved group of left leaning, two-state supporting, anti-settlement, secular, anti-orthodox politicians who would feel comfortable and are acceptable to the leftist wing of the Democrat Party should be permitted to run Israel. Well, that is not about to happen. Israel is rapidly becoming more religious and more Zionist than any of the average Democrat Party leadership could ever be if their recent convention and choices for leadership are any indication of their leanings. Any political groups which find leadership such as Democrat Party National Committee Chair Tom Perez and Deputy Chair Keith Ellison, both of whom have a record of anti-Israel activity and advocacy, are not possible allies of Israel and should not have any influence over Israeli political or military decisions. Those who would support allowing a Women’s March to be coordinated by pro-Palestinian, anti-Israeli Linda Sarsour and convicted Palestinian terrorist Rasmea Odeh are not capable of also claiming to be supportive of Israel. Support of Rasmea Odeh and believing her story that she was innocent of the terror attack bombing of a supermarket which murdered two young Israelis, twenty-one year old Leon Kanner and twenty-two year old Eddie Joffe, and injured nine others because her confession was given while in the custody of the Israeli authorities disqualifies them as being a supporter of Israel. Those who believe her claims of innocence and that she was sexually tortured as was her father for forty-five days before she confessed to her part in the terror attack has beliefs about Israelis which belie their claims of support for Israel. Yet these are often the people who scream the loudest accusing Israel of improper activities and then plead that Israel should be required to seek their approval before taking any actions political, military or other security actions. They are also the most shocked and astounded that Israel would take precautions without conferring first with their betters in the United States, particularly their betters in the leftist organizations such as Jews for Peace, Rabbis for Peace, B’Tselem, J Street and numerous other leftist, post-Zionist radical groups.

 

Much to the horror of these leftist detractors of Israel, the majority of the Israeli population does not agree with their demands that Israel sacrifice even further because peace is just one more sacrifice away, just as they claimed before Israel made the last sacrifice which they claimed that this time it would be the last sacrifice, not like the sacrifice before that which was also to be the last sacrifice as was the one before and the one before and that has been the story for the past twenty-plus years of Israeli final sacrifices for peace. After the Gaza debacle, the Israeli public completely has decided that they see real willingness and a different attitude from those with whom Israel is presumably supposed to be making peace. Mahmoud Abbas has refused to even meet with the Israelis; yet the world demands that Israel continue making sacrifices though the last two sacrifices, if not more, have not been returned and instead have been rebuked and met with claims that whatever sacrifice Israel made was insufficient and until and unless Israel is ready to fall on their sword, then nothing less than suicidal retreats will suffice. Those who claim that such sacrifices are not out of the reasonable sphere are not friends of Israel and are simply seeking to make points as being the greater leftist making the greater demands for Israeli sacrifice than the next leftist. Israel cannot meet the demands from every corner as doing so would be the end of the Jewish State. Israel is not going to commit to being suicidal and will act in the way best suited for continued health and existence of the Jewish State and will refuse those ridiculous demands of the United Nations, European Union, and others whose demands are of a similar nature.

 

Now to get down to the reality and truth of the matter which may be painful for some but, for the most honest, these revelations will come as no surprise as they have known that their views have drifted further and further left and with that drift so have their demands of Israel in the face of the Islamic escalating animosity and belligerence towards the Western World in general and Israel in particular, even more so than the United States. Israel sacrificed in making the Oslo Accords after Yasser Arafat duped the world into believing he had reformed from his terrorist days which included the attempted overthrow of the government in Jordan, the eventual weakening and Islamification of Lebanon and the start of the Lebanon Civil War and formation of Hezballah through his actions. Even after the Second Intifada about which came proof that it had been planned even before Arafat went to hold talks with Israel with President Clinton at Camp David and then in Paris where he already planned the violence such that he could blame it on Israel for not surrendering completely at the negotiations. What Arafat had not planned on was that after he gave President Clinton his word that he would accept a set of terms he deemed beyond Israeli comfort levels that Prime Minister Ehud Barak would agree to his demands for close to ninety-five percent of the West Bank, land swaps, and half of Jerusalem in order to make peace. The next morning when President Clinton planned on finalizing the deal and collecting signatures, Yasser Arafat stormed from the meeting with Secretary of State Madeline Albright chasing him down the hall to no avail.

 

Camp David Talks on a Break as President Bill Clinton, Yasser Arafat and Prime Minister Ehud Barak Stroll the Grounds of the Complex Located Ten Miles North of Frederick, Maryland

Camp David Talks on a Break as President Bill Clinton, Yasser Arafat and Prime Minister Ehud Barak Stroll the Grounds of the Complex Located Ten Miles North of Frederick, Maryland

 

Israel has made concession and sacrifice one after another with nothing to show for it other than the world expecting more from Israel to the point of demanding Israel make sacrifices simply for the sake of having Israel sacrifice with nothing offered in return. This led to the Gaza giveaway where all of Gaza was surrendered by Israel, over eight-thousand Jewish lives turned upside-down being ripped from their homes, their livelihoods often destroyed, their greenhouses turned over to the Arabs who tore them apart to make rockets and launchers, and then soon thereafter the Palestinian Authority surrendered the Gaza Strip over to Hamas, Islamic Jihad and giving a beachhead potentially to Iran on the Israeli southern border. Since signing onto the Oslo Accords where Israel was promised to retain Area C and all of Jerusalem and the Palestinian Authority was granted semi-autonomy over Area A which would lead to their being given Area A as the central lands for their state while Area B would be mutually governed and deliberations would decide where the eventual border would stand to the current situation where the world is demanding that the Arabs be given all of Judea and Samaria, half of Jerusalem and that Israel accept many hundreds of thousand Arab refugees and there are those who demand Israel accept millions of Arab refugees and that all of Jerusalem resulting in not just a single new Arab state but two new Arab states and the death of Israel and likely the extermination of another six-million Jews as the world would again refuse to permit them to emigrate to their shores and to relative safety. This is why Israel can no longer simply bow to every demand and whim which passes for the newest idea which will bring peace and instead decide what will allow Israel to keep peace through sufficient strength and control of strategically significant positions. These vital points include potentially all of Judea and Samaria as the Palestinian Arab population becomes virulently anti-Semitic and more militarized to the point they are becoming a threat to Israel’s continued existence.

 

This is the reality and as things worsen it will become even more of a necessity that Israel reestablish complete control over all of Judea and Samaria; and if that should also require the removal of the Arabs which are known to be militantly anti-Israel and anti-Semitic, then that is what will have to be. The current government would never likely permit such an eventuality, but that does not mean that such would not become necessary and that a future government would remain so intimidated by the world’s leftist largely in Europe and the United States. The threat that Israel will be hated if it does not comply with the next round of demands no longer frightens the Israeli population as they have learned that being hated is not necessarily the worst of all things, ceasing to have a defendable border and a safe place in which to live is far worse and if being hated becomes the price for survival, we will take survival, thank you so very much. We understand and have learned how easy it is for others, even Jews who claim to be our fiercest supporters, to demand that Israel surrender to her enemies and how doing so can make these people feel so superior and good about themselves and how it allows them to claim they are such great supporters of a peaceful solution to the Palestinian situation and how they are the most compassionate. We also are learning how to simply say, “No!” And when “No!” does not suffice, then how about we say, well, let us say we say, “No!” even louder and possibly with a few superlatives added to the mix. And when that fails, as our saying “No” always has, then we will just have to let our actions be our statement, and that we are sure will suffice when that hard day arrives. The problem is the more the world demands the indefensible of Israel the more they make peace impossible because the Arab world stands assured that the rest of the world will hand them the Jews and not even blink when they slaughter the Jews by the millions. They observed the world’s lack of concern during World War II and learned that the world does not care if there are those who wish to murder Jews. They also learned that the world does not much care who is being murdered as long as the murdered are a minority who is not one of them and that includes Yazidi, Kurds, Roma and close to any other group which is too small to defend themselves or cause the rest of the world to care.

 

Even nations do not always get a response when they are gobbled up; just ask Czechoslovakia, currently Slovakia and the Czech Republic which probably means there are two nations which can be swallowed without the world getting even the slightest indigestion as they have not learned from history. One last warning should go out to all the Balkan nations, the smaller nations at the eastern end of Europe closest to the Russian border and the countries of Southeast Asia near China (which is all except India); the world will not care when larger entities swallow you whole or even wholesale because their only concern is are they still feeling safe. It is only when the major nations, which the world has fewer of these every year as now nations such as Spain, Romania, Syria, Yemen and by now even Kuwait are no longer worth going to war over. Should Iran be the nation taking one or more of these nations, not to include Saudi Arabia, and already have tested large nuclear weapons proven to be deliverable by their displayed ICBM capability, then many might complain and call on the United Nations, but none would do much if anything. Thus, any idea that one could expect others to come to the aid of Israel is ludicrous and thus Israel would be left hanging to fend for herself? The world is not getting safer by the hour but far more volatile and dangerous, so please do not fault us for noticing and acting accordingly. You want to hate us, and we would rather you have us to hate than you to have once loved us and now hate our having passed and fallen.

 

Beyond the Cusp 

 

March 9, 2017

The Grand Deal or Death by Consequences

 

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will do anything necessary to win himself his place in history. He sees that image as coming in the form of a Nobel Peace Prize which he plans on winning on the graves of thousands of Israelis, the majority being Jews of course. But there is another idea which if this is where Prime Minister Netanyahu is going, as he has gone this route before and each time Mahmoud Abbas came through in spades rejecting even the most advantageous of deals because he simply cannot allow anything offered by Israel in particular and the West in general, so Bibi is probably counting on this rejection to save Israel again. With Abbas having his life depend on his being as completely uncooperative as humanly possible, he will continue being uncooperative. When your entire society is built on rejectionism and the people are almost always at a fevered pitch on the verge of full mania, you cannot just turn the switch and they will become calm and understanding. This is the problem he and his allies from Fatah, the PLO and in the Palestinian Authority (PA) have caused. They built this engine of hatred and now they are simply riding the dragon hoping not to get eaten in the process. So this Grand Bargain, which it appears he has agreed to have Trump offer to the Arab World, mainly Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) which includes the oil sheikdoms of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and considering adding Jordan plus the United States might include some more of the Arab League nations such as Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon and maybe also add Turkey though that might be a nation too far, is for the Arab world to press Abbas and we will watch Abbas reject them too. The Grand Bargain will be a promise from President Trump that the United States will defend from Iranian hostilities these nations and in turn they will dictate a settlement to Mahmoud Abbas and Israel will pull back probably to the Green Line with some moderations and possibly even land swaps making the Palestinian State of Palestine a reality. That is our best guess as to the Grand Deal which President Trump will try to sell in the Middle East, remember, this is his first rodeo here in the really wild, wild world of Arab fanaticism.

 

If Prime Minister Netanyahu is depending on the Arab League and the GCC states to reject this bargain then he may have a surprise coming but the ace in the hole is Mahmoud Abbas who even the Arab powers will be unable to budge. They crafted this monster Abbas to be uncooperative and they will see how well their handiwork has turned out. The other side of the equation is the Arab World. They observed with calm panic as President Obama sold Israel down the river and broke every understanding the Arab World had with Washington in order to create his new Hegemonic Iranian Monster (HIM). This HIM will become a nuclear power within a decade if they have not already started building a nuclear weapons stock with which to make themselves near to invulnerable to any outside influence and free to spread their Shia terror arms around the world starting in their own backyard, the Middle East. HIM had designs on the Saudi oil fields as well as the rest of the GCC wealth and knows that if they have the strength to devour the economic heart of the Arab League, they will be capable of replacing the Arab League with one large nation called Iran. The Mullahs of Iran are keyed on using HIM to reconstruct Persia and once again deal a deathblow to Greece except to them Rome is the new Athens and Paris, London, Berlin and Moscow are the other Greek City States and the area that HIM has designs on incorporating into their new world empire. Their conquests also include Israel though they are more likely to attempt to destroy Israel and turn it into a wasteland rather than fight any costly war on the ground. Their attack on Israel will come right before HIM attacks the United States. The Arab States will likely remember this betrayal and realize that Presidential promises are only as good as the length of that President in office and then it will be up to the next President to decide if they desire keeping any previous promises. They will know that somewhere down the line the United States will not be there as promised and will simply sell them out as too costly to defend or actively joining the other side, Iran in this case. Prime Minister Netanyahu may simply be waiting for this Grand Bargain to be rejected which is the most likely outcome. The only real question is how far the bargain will get before falling apart and failing.

 

Still this is a risky maneuver because such opportunities can turn out far different than one predicts. We would not desire to be anywhere near Prime Minister Netanyahu or the Likud Party if such a deal were made and it became the Israelis turn to fulfill their obligation to establish Palestine in Judea and Samaria and then face the Israeli public in the next elections. We can visualize the temper of such an election with Yitzhak “Bougie” Herzog and his Labor Party claiming that they are the solution to the mess Netanyahu created and can protect Israelis from the terror monster on our border with reason and cooperation with the United States and Meretz Party head Zehava Gal-On joining in on how the left has all the answers and mixed in somewhere will be the ever present and Prime Minister hopeful believing she is still relevant and owed her place as Prime Minister, Tzipi Livni, clamping onto probably Labor as her ticket to the Big Show. Hopefully the Israeli public will realize and remember this entire scenario was the left’s idea and we have been stuck with this two state solution monster since Peres and company brought it down on our heads with the Oslo Accords and all the violence and the Gaza debacle with it. But this will all depend on what the Religious Zionist Jewish Home Party offers up as an alternative along with Israel Beiteinu and Avigdor Lieberman claim to be offering.

 

Minister of Justice Ayelet Shaked

Minister of Justice Ayelet Shaked

 

There was that interesting bit of news from an interview with Ayelet Shaked, from the Jewish Home Party where she is currently the number two seat and holds the position of Minister of Justice in the current government, who voiced an interest in the future of potentially running for the top spot in Jewish Home and trying to become the first Jewish Home Party Prime Minister, or the second if Naftali Bennett should become their first Prime Minister. We fully support Ms. Shaked as she is a competent, intelligent, energetic and true religious Zionist with an emphasis on Zionist. We can even let the world in on a little secret, though Naftali Bennett was the initial draw for us to become members of the Jewish Home, Ms. Ayelet Shaked was another factor along with Uri Ariel and Eli Ben-Dahan and their platform of recognizing all of Israel as promised in the Mandate system and other treaties and papers. We would support any of these members of the Jewish Home and would further like Jewish Home to try and gain a wider reach by offering the olive branch to other Religious Zionist Parties as we are stronger together than we can ever be competing against one another. The dream of Israeli politics has always been combining like-minded shards to create a single faction, always the dream and seldom the reality. But the point is that should such a Grand Bargain the Likud Party would see many of its more Zionist members fleeing the party like rats from a doomed ship. The Likud would make the next Knesset but would be in no position to be the kingmaker and would simply be scurrying to gain whatever scraps were offered if they were even approached to be in any coalition. For who knows how long they would remain a stained and injured party but rehabilitation would start with the removal of Bibi Netanyahu as he would receive the blame for this Grand Bargain as President Trump would likely never have tried such without Prime Minister Netanyahu onboard. So, apparently Israel, if this Grand Bargain goes through, is once again counting on the Palestinians, this time along with the Arab World, to not miss this opportunity to miss an opportunity, something they have become known for doing. We will all have to wait and see what develops but the ball is in the Trump-Netanyahu side of the court in this dangerous game of doubles.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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