Beyond the Cusp

June 6, 2019

Trump Peace Plan has a Blind Spot

 

On November 22, 1967, the United Nations Security Council passed a Chapter Six Resolution 242 addressing the solutions after the changes resulting from the Six Day War, the Israeli defensive war caused by Arab aggressions. The chief architects for UNSC Res 242, Lord Caradon, Professor Eugene Rostow, and other leading international legal scholars have pointed out, those armistice lines, especially in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) were never meant to be permanent borders. It dictated that Israel would receive more secure, defensible, and real recognized borders to replace those lines as a result of any peace-making process. What was of particular note was the call for Israel to give up lands for peace. They argued ferociously to make the wording exact and not mean return all the lands or even most of the lands but rather just those lands which left Israel with recognizable, secure and defensible borders. Israel returned the entirety of the Sinai Peninsula which assuredly met the requirement for surrender of land. This left the most definable, defensible, secure and recognizable borders remaining to be the Golan Heights and the Jordan River Valley. This was actually less than many believed Israel would demand as it was expected for Israel to return half of the Sinai allowing for the central highlands to be where the border would be drawn.

Lord Caradon and Professor Eugene Rostow

Lord Caradon and Professor Eugene Rostow

But that is besides the point, as the Arabs devised a means for stealing back every inch of land pushing Israel back to the 1949 Armistice Lines. It was at Camp David 2000 followed by the hastily patched together Taba emergency sessions which clearly showed that occupation and settlements were not the problem preventing peace. Israel had offered Arafat over 97% of the disputed territories along with half of Jerusalem meeting his every last demand during the Paris talks. President Clinton personally met with Arafat to force him to itemize exactly what was required for him to make peace. Arafat made the ridiculous demands for virtually all the land and exchanges of land to replace the lands where the Jewish settlements exist plus half of Jerusalem and prisoner releases and other sundry items demanded simply to make the offer unacceptable to any Israeli Prime Minister with an ounce of common sense. Well, Israel was led by Prime Minister Ehud Barak and, after a fair amount of arm twisting, agreed to give Arafat everything he demanded, every last unbearable and severely serious demands outside of borders, and Arafat believed that the borders would be sufficient a breaking point. The next morning, while the papers were all arranged, all except the Arafat delegation were in their places awaiting his arrival and all the news cameras were there transmitting to the world as this was to be the big moment where peace would come to the Middle East. Arafat came down the stairs, walked right past the astonished cameras, befuddled President Bill Clinton, a hopefully amused Prime Minister Barak and Secretary of State Madeline Albright waddling as fast as she could in heels after Arafat screaming, “Come back, where are you going.” Or some such we presume. Arafat was on his way to an awaiting limousine which rushed him to the airport onto an awaiting plane and back to Aman, Jordan. The sticky point both then and now has always been the existence of a viable Israel ruled potentially by Jews or whomever can be elected, regardless of size outside of Sharia, or at least Arab rule. As reported here, they stated the often-ignored reality when they wrote,

“Arabs have rejected an independent Kurdish state, Amazigh (Berber) state, black African Sudanese state, etc. for the same reasons — a belief that only they have the right to rule lands where many different peoples have historically lived and live.”

And they reached a reality that “Ambassador Dennis Ross was there and confirmed the offer for a contiguous state…not ‘disconnected cantons’ as anti-Israel attackers now claim.” This was the final effort by President Clinton to assure he would win a Nobel Peace Prize and he was determined not to lose out. President Clinton cannot be blamed for falling for the Arab Palestinian trap to keep the world debating where the lines are to be drawn all the while Hamas, Fatah, Islamic Jihad, al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades and numerous other terrorist forces gain in power, destructive abilities and militarily more sophisticated and advanced until they will be capable of destroying Israel. The left hand from Tehran to the north of Israel, Hezballah, there exists a hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles of varying sizes and warhead capabilities including some which are capable of carrying chemical and biologic weapons of mass destruction as well as EMP warheads and potentially nuclear warheads provided by Iran or North Korea.

We are approaching beyond the cusp for the announced coming on June 25-6, 2019, release of the economic incentives which President Trump is proposing as his hopes for reaching some settlement of the Arab-Israel conflict. President Trump speaks as if he is completely sure that he has found the magic wand to wave and make peace. We talked about what is likely a major challenge and potential shortcoming of his plan in our article “Palestinian Terror Leaders Pose Threat to Trump” which we hope is informative. Between the two main Arab Palestinian forces, Palestinian Authority (Fatah) and Hamas (backed with Islamic Jihad with both under Iranian influence and assists with armaments), both claiming that they will sink, smash down or otherwise work to prevent anything President Trump and his teams believe will bring a new and intuitive plan. If their central column supporting their plan is centered upon an economic approach, we fear that the plan is guaranteed to fail. If the plan is the rumored megalopolis in Saudi Arabia with planned communities with employment possibilities with related residential neighborhoods, the problem comes with arranging for the Arab Palestinians to be permitted to relocate, something their terror masters will fight with every bit of force and threats which they can muster. The law does not permit the sale or rental of any property to a non-Arab, preferably another Arab Palestinian. Further, the countries which have Arab Palestinians trapped in refugee camps will not permit them to relocate even if they are forced to guard the camps with their militaries. Thus, attempting to build a new region in which the Arab Palestinians could relocate faces a serious uphill battle over finding some means of transferring the target populations in Gaza, Judea and Samaria to the planned new life. Solving this problem is at the heart of the plan and may be its largest blind spot. How President Trump believes he can solve this challenge will prove interesting.

In all honesty, we wish President Trump and any other group which believes they have an honest peace proposal which provides Israel with the borders intended by the initial UNSC Res 242 which had been the promised borders under the San Remo Conference and the British Mandate, namely the Jordan River, to please tell me where is there a problem? What many fail to recognize and resist belief even when shown the actual agreements, there was no mention of Arab Palestinians in anything before 1964 in September when the PLO was founded under cooperation of the Arab League and the KGB. This new name for Arabs who had no actual discerning difference from the surrounding populations in Jordan, Egypt, Syria and Iraq designed to claim the Jewish history and claim that it was actually referring to these “special” kind of Arabs. They have claimed to have the sole ancient attachment with Jerusalem and with the overwhelming power of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), a cooperation of one-hundred-twenty-five member nations plus twenty-five observer countries who tend to vote largely in coordination with the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). This has led to a number of United Nations votes refusing to recognize any Jewish attachment to anything west of the Jordan River. They do not need to care about the lands east of the Jordan River as they are already under Arab control through to the Iranian border. Their only desire is to destroy the Jewish State by any and all means necessary. This has been behind the failure of every peace plan, that they leave Israel as an independent country which the Jews have a majority. This was the entire idea where the Arab Palestinians insist that all of the refugees must be accepted as full citizens inside Israel. Their desire is to inject over five-million Arab Palestinian refugees with the right to vote and then simply vote Israel out of existence. This is why two of the largest Arab Palestinian refugee camps are found in Gaza and the Shomron (Judea and Samaria). These camps are in the middle of regions under Arab Palestinian rule.

President Trump is solving the Arab Palestinian refugee situation by allowing only those refugees who were born before May 15, 1948, the point where this problem originated. This was when hundreds of thousands of Arabs fled at the insistence of the Mufti of Jerusalem Amin al-Husseini (he spent WWII largely in Berlin meeting at least once with Adolph Hitler as seen in the picture below) who insisted that the Arabs remove themselves to behind the Arab forces from the six nations and other militias attacked Israel. He promised that they would share in the spoils once they had slaughtered the impudent Jews and ended the dream of their own state. When the Arab forces failed to destroy Israel taking control of Gaza and the Shomron leading to the Green Line and the Gaza border as Armistice Lines, the Arab League made a strong insistence that these were not borders and should never be used to define borders.

Mufti of Jerusalem Haj Amin al-Husseini in His One of Many Personal Meetings with the Führer Adolf Hitler

Mufti of Jerusalem Haj Amin al-Husseini
in His One of Many Personal Meetings
with the Führer Adolf Hitler

This has apparently changed as the claim is the Arab Palestinians merely desire the 22% that they believe is their land. This has usually been interpreted to mean they simply want what they define as Gaza and the West Bank (Shomron). This is not what they are defining, they are demanding 22% of the British Mandate which was not Jordan which received 78% of the British Mandate, the lands east of the Jordan River. The fact that Jordan was defined as having the Jordan River as their western border, then it should be obvious even to the most casual of observers that the Jordan River would serve as the eastern Israeli border. But the world appears insistent that Israel needs to return lands which were never intended for anybody other than Israel. This is the problem as should the Arab Israeli conflict ever end up in a World Court where the law is the only thing which matters, Israel is legally defined with Jordan as her eastern border. We hope President Trump has figured out every last detail which could crop up and destroy his entire peace plan. We will have to wait until some time this fall as Israel is heading to elections scheduled for September 17, 2019 and it could easily be another month before a coalition is formed. This replay on the election which just failed to form a sixty-one mandate majority in the Knesset will prove interesting as the Israeli public is more informed as different parties, starting with Blue White the evening of the vote and by Likud the next morning revealing a distinct difference, the first willing to give away land for peace and the second still professing intent to extend Israeli law and sovereignty over the numerous settlements. This next election may hinge on the difference between these two very different, even opposing, viewpoints. That, in and of itself, will prove to be very interesting. This vote may be the start of a new direction for the Israeli public.

Beyond the Cusp

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February 12, 2019

Israeli Elections on General Gantz

 

We would be remiss if we were to completely ignore what will sooner or later become a circus, but will be better known as the Israeli election cycle. These affairs always seem to follow a similar track which is not designed to, but manages to, become a series of comical dances as parties and personalities clash, hover, collide, crash and eventually work things out and decide to swallow pride and do what needs doing or choosing to stand on often a single principle and not make threshold for entry into the Knesset. This first entry will be about one specific candidate who we feel an urgent need to discuss early in the process and will likely warn about his history and views repeatedly, hopefully not ad-nauseum. We hope to have space to also give a few general comments on what we have been watching before closing this article.

 

General Benjamin “Benny” Gantz rose to some of the highest military positions possible and was a long-standing member of the Central Command including serving as Chief of Staff. One would naturally be led to believe that Benny Gantz, as he prefers to be named, would be a hardliner when it comes to security and things concerning the Israeli-Arab Conflict. That is unless you understand the Central Command and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and the intricacies as one rises in the ranks amongst the officers. General Gantz was amongst a cadre of officers who either by active opposition or passive permission blocked numerous fine officers from reaching command ranks largely because they were overly religious and Zionist in their views on how the IDF should operate. This should be the first hint that maybe candidate Gantz might not be hardline or even right leaning, and that would be an accurate assessment. His assessments of the readiness of the fighting forces of the IDF were always on the pessimistic side and used these assessments to almost always advise appeasement. He had advised that it would be necessary to provide the Arab Palestinians with a state in order for Israel to reach a peace settlement and also rise in her standing amongst the community of nations. But, his supporters will point out, was his position as a military commander and advisor who had to keep the safety and lives of the troops foremost in his mind and coloring his assessments. There will be the claim that as a candidate he holds very centrist and level-headed positions which are no longer tainted by the military necessities and he can now be his own man. So, along those lines, let us evaluate some of his activities since departing from military service and the restrictive environment under his previous positions.

 

General Benjamin Gantz

General Benjamin Gantz

 

Since departing the IDF, Benjamin Gantz has been affiliated with two groups, Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and Commanders for Israel’s Security (CIS), and until recently or possibly still is registered as part of the INSS team and is reputed to have been involved in the formulation of its “Peace Plan” as it is currently known. There is little if any difference between these two groups and they work in tandem, which is fairly easy as their central memberships are closely linked mix of former IDF, Shin Bet, Mossad, Border Police and other security personnel all of whom share a rather leftist leaning. We discussed the CIS in detail in our article from June 18, 2016, titled, “Political Declarations and Social Movements,” which was the follow-up article clarifying some points and adding a fair amount of detail to the article from June 17, 2016, titled, “When Opportunists Meet,” which was preceded by our initial mention of CIS and linking to their peace plan known as, “Security First,” a misnomer if ever there was one, and the article titled, “When Lunacy Rules and Lunatics Follow.” I know, why the silence since 2016? Well, that is easily explained, as these command officers were required to go through what is referred to as a cooling off period before they could enter politics. That period was three years and, as we mentioned back then, these agencies were mostly the tool which was to be utilized to keep them in the limelight and allow for Haaretz and other leftist news sources to continue to pump them up as the knight in shining armor who could rescue Israel from the clutches of the incompetents, which according to Haaretz and company is any and everybody right of Meretz and Zionist Union (Labor Party). With elections called, many observers have claimed this is the most opportunistic point in time for Prime Minister Netanyahu to easily glide right back into leading the next coalition with potentially an even more fanatical right wing group. How in the world these pundits came up with that will become more fogged and discredited as we continue.

 

The first item one must constantly remember about Benny Gantz is that he tries to pose as right wing and Zionist to the bone while his history, affiliations and positions are anything but what he purports. The plan, which, if he is smart, Benny Gantz will simply refer to as “the Plan” and try to leave it at that hoping that none of the media ask him to expound on “the Plan” which he will possibly have claimed was drawn up by a combined effort of the INSS and CIS, actually naming them as their names sound impressive, and then try and walk away at that point. The media will expound on the myriad of years of command, security and intelligence experience contained in these two groups, which when adding it up if you ignore the numbers of people who are on both panels, you will reach a really impressive number potentially over a thousand or so years. The problem is that the vast majority, if not all, the main characters in these two organization are “Two State Solution” proponents. Their plan is actually even worse, as they are a unique variety of “Two State Solution” fanatics. These groups first, it will be pointed out, are not in favor of Israel pulling back all the way. They will stress “all the way” possibly almost screaming it at the audience, crowd, televisions watchers and any other group which is being informed how great and wonderful the plan and Benny Gantz will be for Israel. Then they will quietly and calmly allow it to slip out that they only think Israel should pull back to the separation barrier, the anti-terror wall-fence, as this provides a defensible position and does not surrender the entirety of Judea and Samaria. They will allow the separation barrier to remain an undefined term which every person can, if the media succeeds, have their own mistaken idea of its placement and how much it differs from the 1949 Armistice Green Line, the pre-Six Day War lines. We want everyone to know what exactly is the difference so we have included a nice, easy to read, map with the Green Line in green, imagine that, and the security barrier in blue as they are in the region overlooking Tel Aviv (see map below). The separation barrier (anti-terror barrier) is partly wall, the pictures you have likely seen as they always wish to make it appear imposing, and partly a double fence with other detections devices and safeguards included. As you can easily visualize, the differences are relatively minor and the barrier divides Jerusalem right along the Green Line with no real deviations. Most of the barrier in Jerusalem is merely a fence when it ever is completed, or if it is ever completed. Still, using this as the new armistice line will not change the situation measurably from retreating to the Green Line unless you are one of the possibly ten to fifteen percent of the Jews residing beyond the Green Line but west of the Separation Barrier.

 

Green Line versus Security Separation Fence

Green Line versus Security Separation Fence

 

Benny Gantz has gone a little further in providing Israelis with a realistic view of where the parties lie on the political scale. Another figure whose speeches often make him appear to be a total Zionist and supportive of the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria is Yair Lapid who leads the Yesh Atid ticket. Why not, he founded and built the party and it sort of belongs to him and will possibly die should he ever retire from politics, which is not happening quite yet. Yair Lapid and a fair number of his party members are also honestly Two State Solution supporters. There were rumors circulating which claimed that Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz were going to run on a joint ticket. This would be great for Benny Gantz, as it would guarantee his being in the Knesset almost no matter what. The problem arises from having two men who both believe that they should be at the top of the ticket and possibly the next Prime Minister. A solution was offered but we doubt that they could decide which of them should be the early Prime Minister and who would be secondary. Their considering running as a joint list did provide one result which we hope would alert the average voter who is center-right, that neither of these men are center-right and could only in the loosest sense could even be considered center-left except that Israel has some parties so far left that the center is skewed leftward. This is used to paint Likud as an extreme right wing party, something it is not and never has been. Likud is at best a center-right party which has a large number of members who are spread from center and even center-left to actual right wing. The main thing is that both Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz are Two State Solution advocates and would prove disastrous for Israel, as both have also spoken in favor of separating from the Arabs without the need to reach an actual solution with recognition of Israel by the Arabs.

 

Should either Lapid or Gants become Prime Minister, their coalition would likely include other left wing and leftist parties along with the people specific parties whose only interest is retaining their government subsidies and in some cases their exclusion from the draft and IDF service. Should they actually form a government which allowed the separation from the Arabs without having any real peace agreement, that would leave Israel with a very bad situation. The problem would be the worst of the last disastrous situations which Israel now faces on two borders, Lebanon and Gaza. Simply separating from the Arabs, as they have suggested, would mean Israel relinquishing any claims to the regions beyond the security fence. Benny Gantz has addressed this by claiming he has learned from history and would demand that the IDF continue to patrol the regions where they are currently doing so. Well, he may have learned from Gaza that Israel needs IDF securing the regions from whence the terror originates but he apparently missed the lesson from southern Lebanon where the IDF was left in a region which Israel did not claim. That eventually led to the disorganized and rushed retreat which ensued after international pressures and internal pressure to bring the boys home due to constant attacks which were claiming their lives. This led to Hezballah and well over a hundred-thousand rockets all perched near the northern border targeting all of Israel. The idea of separating from the Arabs in Judea and Samaria would be the worst part of Gaza combined with the disasters of southern Lebanon, releasing all claims to areas which the Arabs would not be required to give anything in return and Israel could never reclaim and the IDF left standing vulnerable in an area which would not truly be occupied. These two men should never be elected to the highest office in Israel but should they combine their parties and perhaps find another few smaller parties to also join, then they might out perform Likud and take the elections leading to their forming the next coalition. This brings us to the commentary on the insanity which accompanies Israeli elections.

 

When Israeli elections are called, the initial occurrence is for people to start to form smaller parties with them having dreams of grandeur. When the time nears, those lists are closed and any parties need to announce if they are going to have a joint ticket, then negotiations become frantic and eventually these smaller parties combine or recombine with their original party. There are also those parties which normally run together and everyone assumes that will continue but the smaller party always demands more seats than votes they will bring with them and claim they will go the election alone which could damage both parties. The main party will often relent, but not to the extent which is initially demanded. Sometimes swelled heads get in the way of reason and the electorate are the eventual losers as many people voting their conscience end up not represented in the government. This also can work to weaken the chances for the winning party to form a coalition. We have noted something peculiar to this situation. On the left, if two parties have merely a few or even one thing on which they agree, sometimes not even that, they will agree to unite. On the right if two parties agree on everything but they disagree on one even minor issue, they will fight tooth and nail and even spite themselves and refuse to join even if it is for their mutual advantage. Politics is a strange world where unusual bedfellows often occur on the left and natural bedfellows remain distant on the right, the right needs to learn from the left that cooperation is far more successful than competition, especially mean spirited competition where they refuse to compromise because they claim their own voters would abandon them. Really? And exactly where would they go. When you weaken your chances for attaining threshold for entry to the Knesset, this is when your voters abandon you, go with a party which they mostly agree with, and is certain to make threshold.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

January 25, 2019

When Mahmoud Abbas is Gone

 

We are not going to go into depth over the facts that Mahmoud Abbas has refused to hold elections so he could remain in power while currently serving the twelfth year of his five-year term. We are not going belabor the point that Mahmoud Abbas is eighty-one years old and in less than perfect health. We are just going to assume that he has left the scene and, for all we care, decided to retire with his ill-gotten gains in Monte Carlo living in a modest mansion with his Force 17 still loyal and protecting him as he smokes fine cigars and enjoys a deserved retirement. We want to discuss the only option which makes any sense when one considers the lay of the land and the hard and biting facts which build the reality for this eventuality. So, what is really going to occur in the areas ruled by the Palestinian Authority after Abbas has left the scene? Trust us; it is not what you have been told.

 

The going blather is that there will be a power struggle as Mahmoud Abbas has no heir apparent and is want to name one. Abbas attempted that once and it did not go as planned. His choice was excoriated and verbally eviscerated until both he and Abbas decided to end his misery and he crawled away with permanent scars on any political future with the Palestinian Authority. The problem is that there are four, five, six, who knows how many others just waiting to pounce and name themselves the next leader and controller of the monies. Some have more support, others have a better claim and still others have some friends who would use force and there might even be a few who would be running the Palestinian Authority from an Israeli prison. The one thing all the pretenders to Mahmoud Abbas’s throne lack is an actual workable and executable plan to attain the position. What is even more interesting is that it does not matter as it is highly unlikely that any of these suitors for the crown will ever wear it because after Mahmoud Abbas, there will be no Palestinian Authority to provide that crown they seek.

 

Abbas answering Reporter’s question, “What you going to do next?” Abbas “I’m going to Disney World!”

 

Then there are numerous political experts and others who believe that Israel will step in and solve the problems caused by the power vacuum at the top of the Palestinian Authority by appointing the leading clans in each city and town to run their area and leave the Arabs with presumably better leadership with less graft. Such a system has been lauded by some political analysts and sociologists as likely the most advantageous system for the people. There are other plans and visions of the future for the Palestinian Authority and the region under its control. All of these predictions and plans have one thing in common and that is the reason they are all wrong, they all believe there will be a Palestinian Authority after Mahmoud Abbas leaves the arena. That is a very mistaken belief even if it remains in name only. The Palestinian Authority and Mahmoud Abbas are still here because Abbas allows the Israeli intelligence services operate even in Area A, as he knows that they will keep him from harm. And Israel has protected Mahmoud Abbas from numerous plots all while making little if any noise about these efforts. This also aids Israel as while protecting Abbas, the Israeli intelligence and security personnel also gain knowledge which is used to thwart terror attacks. Thusly, it serves both sides well.

 

Once Mahmoud Abbas retires or expires, the fight to take over his beleaguered Palestinian Authority will be over very likely within hours and replaced with another Arab on Arab war in the Middle East. Israel has thwarted a number of attempts by Hamas to take control of the region ruled by the Palestinian Authority in order to have a base which would threaten all of central Israel, specifically the greater Tel Aviv metropolitan area and Ben Gurion International Airport and the majority of Israeli infrastructure, industrial regions, population areas and all but cut Israel in two while cutting out her heart. This has been accomplished through targeted arrests of Hamas rings by Israeli security forces or through tipping off the Palestinian Authority to the potential threats. Once Mahmoud Abbas departs the Palestinian Authority, the power struggle will divide the security forces of the Palestinian Authority into the separate individuals each sector supports for the new leadership. This struggle to take the helm will likely not be completely peaceful and will not be limited to just those from within the Palestinian Authority. Hamas will also be making its move to assume the position closing the power vacuum and, they more than likely already have their plan ready, thus are simply biding their time. Hamas will have the added advantage of backing from Iran who could even have already placed IRGC agents within the region under Palestinian Authority control who are waiting for the signal to act. Additionally, the Arabs under the Palestinian Authority support Hamas measurably more than they do anyone from the Palestinian Authority. While there may be two or three officials or power players from the Palestinian Authority who might have a following, Hamas has the logistics and will not be afraid of using excessive force, they are likely planning on exactly that, using excessive force. Once Hamas pulls the trigger on whatever plan they have, it will be a matter of a few hours before they will have taken as much power and control as they are able. That is when everything becomes very chaotic.

 

The question will soon turn to when and how will Israel act. Should there develop total anarchy with numerous factions fighting one another plus an attempted coup by Hamas, Hamas could very readily start to assassinate those they believe are a threat to their taking power. As soon as it becomes evident that Hamas is operating with any level of force such that it becomes a threat to Israel, expect the world to begin to act in ways which are both unhelpful and completely contrarian to the reestablishing of order. The United Nations, European Union, numerous European nations, a plethora of NGO’s, the United States State Department along with numerous United Nations agencies will all be clamoring for Israel to stand off and allow the Palestinian Arabs to choose their new leadership free from Israeli meddling. These interventional forces are not concerned for the Palestinian Arabs, they simply desire for the worst possible outcome to be permitted such that they can then demand that Israel learn to live with Hamas perched on the high ground overlooking the Israeli coastal regions. Many Europeans still desire deep in their darkest regions of their hearts for Israel to be destroyed and the Jews right along with their state. Israelis can only hope that whoever is their Prime Minister along with the parties of the coalition are willing to act despite the screams from the world. Israel should be ready to act immediately as they learn of Mahmoud Abbas retiring and preferably before violence erupts. Thinking on that, we doubt even Israel could react as quickly as violence will erupt upon the departure of Mahmoud Abbas. That result will be almost immediate with some vying for power, some simply celebrating, some simply out of fear for what might be next and Hamas backed by Iran to try and establish a new front for use against the Zionist entity.

 

The losers in this, as is almost always the case, will be the Palestinians themselves. As the power struggle ensues, they will not be able to work or shop or anything considered normal activity as with violence erupting without notice anywhere in their region, it simply would not be safe to venture outside. At some point, Israel would be forced to intervene, if not for any other reason but to restore order and allow for normal activity to be resumed allowing the Palestinian Arabs to continue with their lives without being under threat of facing violence at any moment. Israel also cannot allow for Hamas to establish a foothold in the Shomron from which to operate and attempt to strengthen their hold on the Palestinian Authority regions. The problem is that Hamas may have a plan to simply wait for the power players from the Palestinian Authority have already taken out some of the other operatives and so they can come in as saviors expecting to be greeted enthusiastically. One need remember that in the last elections by the Palestinian Authority, Hamas won a majority in the Palestinian Parliament. This was presumably the driving reason why Mahmoud Abbas assumed dictatorial powers while disbanding the Palestinian Parliament and making it a dead body with no power. Hamas will promise the Palestinian Arabs better governance without the steeling of the funds as under Abbas. They will not deliver such and will soon ruin any workable economy for the average Palestinian Arab. One need look no further than Gaza where a large percentage of the building supplies were diverted to the building of bunkers and tunnels including the infiltration tunnels under the border into Israel. The aid monies were diverted into the manufacture of rockets and other weapons for use against Israel. The people under the Palestinian Authority should take a good long look at the life of the average Gazan Arab before believing that Hamas is their savior, they are anything but their savior.

 

The end result is when Mahmoud Abbas leaves the scene, things will very likely demand that Israel intervenes and restores order. Thus far, Abbas has shown no signs of making any viable plans for after he departs, as if he has thrown his hands up and decided to leave everyone to their fates. There is one item which the world should keep in mind, any violence or disorder which takes hold in the regions under the Palestinian Authority still is occurring within the current Israeli borders. This makes the violence an Israeli problem which they will be required to intervene and restore order. Should the fates smile on the Arab Palestinians, then Israel would take over their areas and appoint clans to rule the local regions until Israel could arrange for some elections and a power structure which would be less prone to encouraging terrorist attacks. The Arabs of the region could be granted same arrangement which was granted to the Arab Palestinians of East Jerusalem after Israel annexed the remainder of the city, allowing them to vote in local elections, in their case all the way up to and including the Jerusalem city elections, but not in national elections as they are not, at least not yet, Israeli citizens. They would also be included into the Israeli medical system and would have their lives normalized to a great extent. With time, there could be arrangement for them to have more liberal travel throughout Israel, but to do so immediately would be to invite undue dangers. With time, many of what are the current problems would begin to disappear. It will be after Mahmoud Abbas has moved on that the lives of the Palestinian Arabs could possibly begin to improve and they reach an even better economy and lives.

 

The way in which Israel could alleviate some of the problems and difficult challenges posed by the Arab Palestinians by intervening, replacing the governance over the Palestinian Authority area, allowing the Arabs to freely choose their futures. The first thing that the world need recognize is that many of these Arab Palestinians want nothing more than to return to their former home towns where the majority of their families reside. Israel could assist these families, as we have pointed out before, by offering to buy out any properties owned and an additional, and potentially large, resettlement bonus. Such an offer could be proposed to stand at what is the maximum that will be offered for a full year and then have it decrease by ten percent each month after the initial year which would have it ending in just under two years. Such a program would need to be made after order had been restored and any of the old guard and their presumed successors had been removed and sent into exile. The one thing which is obvious is that as long as any of the Arab Palestinian leadership which would refuse to permit any of the Arab Palestinians to opt to take the money and leave would need to be removed before they decided that taking such a deal, or even being rumored to having considered such, becomes yet another capital offence for assisting the Jews. This and reforming their education system to one which has normal subjects without classes on hating the Jews and reclaiming their sacred invented nation of Palestine, a nation which has never existed in all history and never had Jerusalem as their capital city as the only people to ever use Jerusalem as their capital city has been the ancient Hebrews who exist today as the Jews of Israel. With time, the population might become a normalized people once again living in a functioning economy and honest governance. That alone would be a great triumph for the future of the Arab Palestinians as their society now has an ailment consisting of the youth being indoctrinated to hate Israel and the Jews, being taught that it is their religious and sacred duty to liberate a homeland which never was. Turning their society from one steeped in hatred and celebrating death to one which is open and accepting celebrating life and all its possibilities will be liberating giving them hope for the first time since the return of Arafat in 1993. We will see whether Israel is ready to take a gamble on liberating the Arab Palestinians from the downward spiral that terrorism and government based on stealing from the people while blaming the oldest scapegoats in the planet, the Jews. All this to come in the post Mahmoud Abbas Middle East.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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