Beyond the Cusp

November 29, 2013

Explaining Mixed Messages Out of Saudi Arabia on Iran Deal

Much has been made over the initial comments out of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia where officials stated hopes that the deal on Iran’s nuclear program could be a step towards a comprehensive solution and hoped it could lead to the removal of weapons of mass destruction from the Middle East. This statement was based upon the information that Secretary of State John Kerry had fed the Saudi Royals on his misdirection tour of Saudi Arabia and Israel on his way to Geneva in order to basically surrender and bow to virtually every whim of the Iranians. Secretary Kerry had given both the Saudis and the Israelis a complete litany of lies and fabrications telling them exactly what President Obama knew these presumed allies of the United States had stated they desired to be included as instrumental in any agreement with Iran. The crafting of the statement was designed more to include the statement concerning the removal of weapons of mass destruction from the Middle East, which is code for the denuclearization of Israel and destroying the Israeli nuclear weapons arsenal.

 

But later, Nawaf Obaid, an advisor, told a think tank meeting in London “we were lied to, things were hidden from us. The problem is not with the deal that was struck in Geneva but how it was done.” This was followed by statements from Saudi officials that they had been deceived by their American ally in the agreements and will pursue an independent foreign policy in response. The Saudi call for independent policy comes after an interview appeared last Friday in which Saudi Arabia’s UK ambassador, Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf bin Abdulaziz, stated that his country would not “sit idly by” should the Americans and the Western powers fail to stop Iran’s nuclear program. All of this comes at the same time as Russian President Putin has been talking with Saudi and Egyptian leaders arranging a sizeable weapons deal for Egypt and potentially signaling that these former allies of the United States may be seeking alternative relations as their trust and policy differences with the United States have led to straining the relationships. The full ramifications and fallout from the horrendous agreement between the P5+1 and the Iranians allowing the Iranians to continue to enrich Uranium, progress towards plutonium production by completing the heavy water plant at Arak and also continue in their research towards manufacturing ICBMs in a coordinated effort with North Korea continues to increase as more and more of the truth is revealed. The Iranians and North Koreans had the audacity to announce the further continuation in their cooperation on military matters within days of the finalizing of the deal over the Iranian nuclear program.

 

Other information which has been revealed recently has given even further signs damning the agreement for being even worse than many initially believed, which seemed impossible but still was managed somehow. Some of the revelations include that the agreement will not become enforced until the turn of the year. The Iranians even announced that the formal summation released by the White House misrepresented the actual agreement and that had the agreement actually contained the terms the White House released they would not have made the agreement. So, should one believe the Iranians or President Obama and the White House on what was included in the agreement that is the sixty-four thousand dollar question? Some decisions are difficult to decide and in this case we have the Iranians and the fact that they may have interpreted the agreement differently than did the Western parties as well as the possible truth that they might be simply using the concept of Taqiyyah which instructs Muslims to deceive in the service of furthering the interests of Islam or to believe a White House that has issued so many lies, and that was simply about Obamacare, that many now have doubts over anything coming out of Washington DC, likely a healthy idea. This entire fiasco over the deal with Iran, the falling out of the United States with longtime allies across the Middle East, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai holding any agreement over continuing stationing of American military until after the elections basically placing his reelection as a condition to assure the ratification of the treaty, the continuing collapse of the situation in Iraq as the Sunnis respond against the persecution by the Shiite majority after the departure of the United States and allied forces, the disagreements with the current leadership of Egypt demanding that the Egyptian military provisional government return dethroned President Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood to power against the will of a sizeable majority of the Egyptian people, the continued deterioration of the situation in Libya as this past month there have been open fighting in both the Capital of Tripoli and the city of Benghazi between government forces and tribal militias, the continuing civil war tearing Syria apart and threatening to spill over the border into Lebanon and the continued pressuring by the Obama Administration on Israel while supporting the Palestinians on virtually all fronts has some, even in the liberal press, reporting on the difficulties and his seeming inability to address any of these problems. This is simply a partial list of President Obama’s difficulties in the Middle East and does not include the disastrous rollout of Obamacare with the healthcare.gov website and everything else that includes and a litany of other problems reflected in his diving approval numbers, but that is for another time.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 25, 2013

Iran Deal Made to Avoid Need for Military Intervention

A deal was agreed to between Iran and the P5+1 (five permanent members of the Security Council which are United States, Russia, China, Britain and France plus one other nation, Germany) which has been heralded in headlines as “Iran and Western Powers Reach Nuclear Deal” despite the fact that Russia and China were also a part of these negotiations. Why should the headlines be any more accurate than the following reports which claim that a great achievement has been reached which will end the threat of Iran becoming a nuclear armed state and thus removes any need for military actions in order to prevent Iran from developing and building nuclear weapons. The agreement supposedly consists of Iranian promises not to retain any additional stores of enriched uranium above their current levels though they have the right to continue spinning away to their hearts content twenty-four/seven. Theoretically the Iranians are supposed to transfer any enriched uranium beyond their current stored levels to a third party nation which nobody seems able to name. There is no current quantity noted under which the Iranians are supposed to keep their stores. Further, the Iranians do not have to turn off, dismantle, or otherwise negate the use of their 18,000 plus centrifuges of which a good number (some reports put it as high as 500) are second generation centrifuges which are able to enrich three and a half percent enriched uranium into ninety percent plus weapons grade uranium in a matter of a couple of weeks. There is no mention of any limit on adding even more centrifuges which some sources claim they were in the process of installing during the period they were negotiating. These sources report that the Iranians have already installed at least another thousand centrifuges of which all are second generation which gives them a potential breakout using their three and a half percent enriched uranium in a matter of two weeks, three at the worst. The entire deal also rests with assurances from the Iranians that they will subject their nuclear sites to regular inspections by international inspectors, which means the IAEA, and they even said they would allow surprise inspections. Well, if they promised to allow any and all forms of inspections, what could go wrong there? One certainty is that very few in Israel are satisfied or even hopeful about the success of this “Bad Deal” preventing Iran from turning nuclear at their merest whim. So, with all the conflicting stories and disparate reactions and supportive statements coming from one side and denunciation from another and Iran’s presumed moderate President Rouhani claiming on Twitter, “A positive agreement, made possible through the tireless efforts of the negotiating teams – this opens new horizons for us,” what exactly did this deal deliver and what will most likely be the ramifications going forward?

 

The first step in understanding the results of the deal made with Iran is to understand what were the aims and objectives of United States President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry. The aims and objectives were made evident last week after Secretary of State Kerry met with the Royal Family of Saudi Arabia and with Prime Minister Netanyahu in Israel before heading on to the deliberations with Iran in Geneva, Switzerland. During these meetings Secretary Kerry spelled out exactly what he wished for these two nations’ leaders to hear so as to assuage any concerns and suspicions they may have held over the deliberation with Iran and to calm them assuring them that there was little or no difference between their expectations and view concerning the Iranian nuclear program and that of the American Administration. This worked exactly as planned for as long as the plan remained undisturbed, which was very briefly. As has always seemed to be the case, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry, and this case was no different. Just as the news was breaking last week that an Iran deal was on the cusp of becoming fact, the French and the British informed the Saudis and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu of the real contents of the agreement and those contents bore little resemblance to the story line fed them by Secretary Kerry. Needless to say, both lied to parties took the sobering news rather poorly as far as their trust in the current leadership of the United States is concerned. Immediately after informing the other interested parties about the betrayal they were facing at the hands of President Obama and Secretary Kerry, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius promptly vetoed the agreement ending that session and making this week’s set of negotiations necessary before the American surrender could be consummated. One can only assume what the Saudi Royals feel about this whole affair but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has not been anywhere near as silent as the Saudis in expressing his disgust and disdain for the entire situation and the horrid deal that resulted. President Obama had long ago decided that the main objective he held that was a necessary and required result for the talks with Iran had nothing to do with Iran and their nuclear program and had everything to do with avoiding any military option no matter the consequences and poisoning relations with the remaining allies of the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis were already on their way out the door from relying on the United States for honesty or any true support and the Israelis had their share of skeptics though Prime Minister Netanyahu had attempted to try and talk a supportive line despite all evidence to the contrary.

 

President Obama got the deal he needed and can now retire the tired lie that the military option was still on the table despite the truth, as we had stated here last spring, that the military option may have been on the table but it would never ever be picked up off the table and implemented. Now President Obama can finally bury the military option because as far as he is concerned there is no way possible that Iran can attain nuclear weapons that can be blamed on him. He has done as promised and reached a deal where the representatives of the Iranian Mullocracy would never lie and deceive the President of the United States, the Great Satan’s infidel leader, and develop nuclear weapons anyways. The entire charade was not ever about stopping the Iranian nuclear weapons drive but was about receiving a piece of paper he could wave and claim he had a piece of paper and on that paper was the signature of the Foreign Ministers of Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and Germany as well as that of Secretary of State Kerry and President Obama himself has talked with the moderate President of Iran, Mr. Rouhani who has personally assure him that Iran will stand by every word in their agreement. Of course President Obama has never heard of the concept of “Taqiyyah” which is the Islamic concept that it is proper and required that a Muslim, especially when dealing with the infidel, to lie and deceive in order to advance the position or advantage for the Islamic cause, this especially applies to treaties and agreements with infidel states.  But all of this matters little to President Obama, the holder of a Nobel Peace Prize and now, with Secretary of State Kerry, very possibly a contender for the next Nobel Peace Prize, and wouldn’t he be deserving of such.

 

The fact that all of this eerily resembles a piece of history that is not yet even a single century past should not be lost by those who remember history just because they like to know when they are feeling a severe case of Deja-vu and also believe it is wise to know when to proverbially duck for cover. The similarities should be easily recognized by even those who abhor history once the facts from both cases are presented. The historical reference concerns the Treaty of Munich of 1938 where after all was written, signed and the ink almost dried, Prime Minister of Britain Neville Chamberlain triumphantly stepped from the plane and up to the microphones waving a piece of paper in his hand over his head and stated to the world’s supposed relief, “My good friends, this is the second time there has come back from Germany to Downing Street peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Now I recommend you go home, and sleep quietly in your beds.” Winston Churchill had a response for Prime Minister Chamberlain when he retorted when he spoke in the House of Commons stating, “England has been offered a choice between war and shame. She has chosen shame, and will get war.” I am afraid that we are witnessing much the same today and in more ways than this damning treaty that assures Iran will be bristling with nuclear weapons within three to five years and be capable of launching an EMP attack upon the United States within the next ten to eighteen month, and they have been practicing launching a medium ballistic missile with approximately a 2,000 mile range into low orbit trajectory and exploding it at its apex which is the preferred altitude to explode a low yield high gamma ray energy burst EMP nuclear device off of cargo ships using the Caspian Sea to keep these tests concealed and difficult to closely monitor.

 

But such is purely conjecture and there are other signs that this is Munich redux. During the Munich agreements the treaty worked out between the French and British with the Germans and Italians concerned two items. The first is the less remembered part where there were modifications made to the limitations placed on Germany and the size of its military both armies, air force, naval and generally which is very similar in nature to this present deal made with Iran where we presumably limited their nuclear uranium stores, did nothing about their coming plutonium production, and set up inspections which the Iranians have agreed to allow before and still managed to delay or prevent any meaningful inspections routines to be established. The other half of the Munich deal was to allow the Germans to annex a significant foothold in Northern Czechoslovakia called the Sudeten Lands simply because there existed a large number of German speaking residents who had emigrated there over the years. Secretary of State Kerry on his last visit to Israel, in addition to lying about the deal being pursued with the Iranians, threatened Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli people stating during his appearance on Israel Channel 2 television, “The alternative to getting back to the talks is the potential of chaos,” Kerry said. “Does Israel want a third intifada?” Kerry further stated, “I believe that if we do not resolve the issues between Palestinians and Israelis, if we do not find a way to find peace, there will be an increasing isolation of Israel, there will be an increasing campaign of the de-legitimization of Israel that has been taking place on an international basis. If we do not resolve the question of settlements, and who lives where and what rights they have; if we don’t end the presence of Israeli soldiers perpetually in the West Bank, then there will be an increasing feeling that if you cannot get peace with a leadership that is committed to non-violence, we may wind up with a leadership that is committed to violence.” This was Secretary Kerry’s simple demand in this, Israel must cave to every conceivable Palestinian demand even if that results in Israel pulling all of the Israelis living beyond the Green Line and in East Jerusalem from their homes and neighborhoods and turning everything over to the Palestinian Authority. The simple fact that when Israel released Gaza to the Palestinian Authority, Hamas took control and has since rained thousands upon thousands of rockets into Israel. Should either Hamas or Fatah do the same thing using the Judean Hills and East Jerusalem as their launching zones they will be enabled to strike the most heavily populated areas within Israel placing over nine million people within the range of even the simplest Katyusha rockets. Czechoslovakia fell within months after releasing the northern lands to Germany and neither Britain nor France came to their aid as they were bound to do by treaty. How long will Israel hold out and what will be the cost in lives on both sides if another Arab Israeli war is the result of Israel surrendering Judea and Samaria, the so-called “West Bank” into Arab hands once again leaving a nine mile wide Israel at her center just tempting the combined Arab armies to once again try to drive the Jews into the Sea. History is an awful thing when the world has to repeat the same disasters over and over. The Greek City States laughed and ridiculed King Leonidas when he warned of a half a million man Persian army coming from the east to conquer the Greek city states. He held them at Thermopile for three days before his small band of warriors were wiped out. The Alamo was a front guard sent to stop Santa Anna by a few who saw what was coming. The rest of the Texas Militias remained behind not believing that Santa Ana was coming so soon. They held the Alamo long enough for the rest of the forces to prepare but they too paid the ultimate price. Czechoslovakia paid the price at the beginning of World War II, let us pray Israel does not pay such a price leading to another great conflagration.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

October 17, 2013

Iran Nuclear Program Talks Resume

Filed under: 24/7 News Reporting,Absolutism,Administration,Ahmadinejad,Amalekites,Appeasement,Arab World,Assault Weapons,Ayatollah Khamenei,Ayatollah Khomenei,Biological Weapons,Blood Libel,Britain,Canada,Chemical Weapons,China,Civilization,Commander in Cheif,Congress,Consequences,Czech Republic,Economic Sanctions,Egypt,EMP Device,Europe,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Foreign NGOs,Foreign Policy,General Assembly,Germany,Government,Hassan Rowhani,Hate,History,Holy Sites,Inteligence Report,International Politics,Iran,IRGC,Islam,Islamists,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Jerusalem,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Home,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Mainstream Media,Media,Media Bias,Media Censorship,Mediterranean Sea,Military Intervention,Military Option,Misreporting,Muslim World,Netanyahu,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Old City,Omission,P5+1,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Peace Process,Plutonium Production,Politics,President Obama,Promised Land,Russia,Sanctions,Security Council,Statehood,Strong Sanctions,Syria,Syrian Military,Temple Mount,Threat of War,Turkey,United Nations,United States,United States Pressure,Uranium Enrichment,Weapon Systems,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 3:28 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The talks between the Iranians and the P5+1, which is made up of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, Russia, Britain, China, France and the United States, plus Germany, over the Iranian nuclear program and whether it aims to produce nuclear weapons or is simply for civil use such as electricity generation, medical research and other domestic energy uses resumed this week. There is a palpable level of hope and promise from the P5+1 nations that the promises and disarming nature and smile of the new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani really is an indicator of a new openness and honest forthrightness in dealings allowing full inspections of all locations of nuclear installations and related research by the United Nations IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) inspectors. The optimism being shown by the P5+1 runs directly opposite the warnings being sounded by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders who fear that the negotiations could lead to the softening of the sanctions in exchange for empty promises which sound impressive but on implementation turn out to have been hollow and accomplishing virtually nothing and changing little if anything. The mainstream media worldwide has taken to identifying any suspicions that the Iranians are seeking to attain nuclear weapons capability through their nuclear program as purely an irrational Israeli fear which has little to validate it and stands in direct opposition to any rational inspection of the Iranian intents which appear to have completely changed under President Rouhani, the man with the pleasant smile and soft, soothing words that topple all previous suspicions replacing them with a driving desire to appease and avoid any conflict. The next few days will require close inspection both of the words which are spoken, the utterings before the press, the rumors from various sources and specially announcements of intents on the sanctions as they are the true measure of the direction resulting from the talks.

 

The moods towards the Iranian nuclear program and whether the Iranians are speaking truths or veiled references in order to mislead the world and be able to hide their true intent to attain nuclear weapons ability behind a civilian use for electricity, medical utilization and other forms of nuclear research have changed rather radically since the election of President Rouhani and these trends have only become more deeply entrenched since the masterful presentation made by President Rouhani at the opening ceremonies of the United Nations General Assembly. The perception has become one where the leader of the P5+1 are more interested in finding reasons to support and believe that the Iranian representatives, like their new President, are only capable of honest brokerage and seeking a level of cooperation which would have been beyond anything previously possible when President Ahmadinejad represented Iran. The media has been overflowing with praises and exhorts telling of the openness and new honesty represented by President Rouhani and how the Iranians have turned a corner and everything in the future will need to be seen under a new set of evaluations representing this new atmosphere. This has served to increase the gulf between the views of great concern over the Iranian nuclear program held by the Israelis and the Saudis among other Middle Eastern nations and the new levels of trust being brandished with great enthusiasm by the Europeans and the United States while Russia and China remain supportive of Iran continuing to show little alarm. That leads to the question of what can the world expect going forward and where will such expectations lead us in the end.

 

We do not need to concern ourselves with the Russians and the Chinese as they will support Iran whether Iran has truly changed or if they are pursuing nuclear weapons meaning that Israel and Saudi Arabia along with those who are in their boat will see their greatest nightmares become reality if they do not act independently and possibly against the will of the rest of the world. Any such preemptive strike would most likely require coordination between two of the most unlikely partners making such an attack, a coordinated attack involving Israeli and Saudi forces even if such required carrying out such an attack against the will of and without the backing of the United States. Such a situation in its absolute worst scenario would find the United States forces including its naval fleets from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea engaging and attempting to prevent any action against Iran. Such active opposition by the United States would make any action by Israel, Saudi Arabia, and any others who would support such an attack almost completely useless and excessively costly for all involved leaving all sides gravely wounded and Iran free with backing from their allies to extend their command over the entire Middle East. Even if such a coordinated attack succeeded with its initial sorties catching everybody by surprise and thus negating any chance for interference, the damage after the first day would serve only to slow Iran’s nuclear research and production and if afterwards the United Nations, United States, or other group of consequence then challenged forcing an end then the attack would end up with damaging results as unless the attacks on the Iranian nuclear sites are permitted to span the minimum of a week, or in order to permit sufficient damage to halt the program for as much as a decade, an series of attacks spanning as long as six weeks may be necessitated. What this means is without the United States assistance and using their vast resources, any attack with conventional weapons would probably prove ineffective in preventing the Iranians from attaining nuclear weapons capability on schedule. This brings us back to what will be the results of this crucial round of negotiations.

 

Since the very beginning of United States President Obama in the negotiations and sanction on Iran over their nuclear program, the United States has been a reluctant follower, or as President Obama likes to phrase it, leading from behind. Often the European and the United States Congress have been in forefront in applying and calling for sanctions against the Iranians as long as they continued to enrich Uranium and producing Plutonium and related nuclear weapons research. Since the election of the new Iranian President Rouhani, the Europeans have given the appearance of entranced followers under a deep and dark spell causing them to become love-sick sycophants adoringly following President Rouhani. Britain has gone so far as to seek to reopen normalized relations and reestablish an embassy or at least a consulate. Furthermore, since the Iranian nuclear program has entered a period of finality where either the Iranians will be brought to end their pursuit of nuclear weaponry or they will proceed and attain nuclear weapons within a short period of time, whatever is going to be done needs to be committed with some sense urgency. Add to this President Obama’s handling of the Red Line over chemical weapons use in Syria and his complete breakdown and inability to act definitively one way or the other and we saw everything necessary to realize that President Obama has never intended to do a damn thing to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons capabilities. So, President Obama and the American military can be ruled out should a strike on Iran become an unfortunate necessity. We can forget the Europeans who have no ability or desire to enter into a conflict of such a potential magnitude. We can expect there to be some serious and concerning words and diplomatic speeches professing the serious nature of the talks and the need for the Iranians to prove their new attitude and openness. After great amounts of posturing and stalking and pacing back and forth with serious faces and grave speeches there will be an arrangement by which Iran will be given a route to legitimacy. The path will not be sufficient and far reaching enough to actually end the Iranian push resulting in a nuclear armed Iran unless there are those who are ready and willing to move to prevent Iran completing their drive to nuclear weapons without the assistance of the United States or Europe and likely against strong opposition and condemnations from the United Nations, Russia and China. All things as they now exist we will likely be facing a Middle East where initially Iran and Pakistan will be the sole nuclear powers but within a year of Iran becoming a proven nuclear state we can expect that Saudi Arabia will have gone nuclear with Turkey likely to follow soon behind with Egypt eventually joining those with nuclear weapons. There will always be the possibility that any of the oil rich sheikdoms will be able to purchase a small stockpile of nuclear weapons and be able to keep them serviced and kept up.

 

Should Israel make good on her promise to go it alone if necessary to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons then the reaction of the world has already been hinted at. Initially, if Israel continues to sound the alarm exhorting suspicions be raised and trust come solely through verification and cooperation we can expect for President Obama and the European leaders to form a chorus telling Israel that unless she has reached a peace with the Palestinian and returned the lands that the Europeans and United Nations and the rest of the world has decided was stolen by Israel, then they have no legitimization allowing them to say anything to anyone about anything. Israel will be isolated from the rest of the world and vilified over the Palestinians and the complaints of their mistreatment. Israel will find the backs of the Western nations turned towards her as they refuse to heed her warnings and she is relegated to international purgatory rejected by former friends and facing a cold world where she has been deserted and left to be wrung by the winds of the furies of abandonment. Israeli leaders will question whether it is possible that they alone in the world know the real truth and everybody else is living the life of a fool smiling all the way to their own graves. For the answer all the leadership of Israel need do is look to Israel’s ancient history where she often was the one truth amongst a sea of idolaters set to destroy the chosen and prove that there was no one unseen all-powerful G0d. If they hold to the truth and their faith in the L0rd who brought them from the land of Egypt then Israel will survive whatever is brought against her and the fact that Israel will see only goodness while the majority of the world has turned their hands against her will once again prove the power of the one true G0d. There is one other reality, namely that there will be some who will stand with Israel such as many American Evangelical Christians, Canada, the Czech Republic and the other nations who stood with Israel in the General Assembly vote over granting the Palestinian Authority nation-state status. In the meantime the rest of us are left with our prayers and may we make the best of them and make them count as they may never have before. Honesty, humility, earnest faith and a deep trust is what will see us through and perchance allow for the miracle which changes the hearts of those who now stand to darken their hearts with deceit and expediency.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Next Page »

Blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: