United States Needs Reevaluate Middle East Priorities

 

The developed world is on the precipice of failure while ignoring the severity of the problem. Much of that reason is they have adopted the view of the Sunni Arabs who claim that until their problems with Israel are solved, they cannot think of anything else. The reality is they could not care less about the “Palestinian People” as they know that there really is no such thing. They know this because they helped to build that myth. Their blaming the situation in Israel for everything is the means by which they remain in power. If Israel is to blame and the United States keeps Israel alive, then they can play off the United States using Israel as well. This dangerous game keeps these nations screaming “Israel, Israel, Israel” all day long and also ignoring the tiger breaking out just beyond and now into their eastern edge. That tiger is Iran and they are set on conquest of the Sunni Arab world and converting them all to Shia Muslims making Shiite Islam supreme once more. They see these conquests over the Arabs as revenge for the Arabs defeating the Persian Empire back just before 640 A.D. Now the Persian Menace has returned and this time the world is simply slightly larger but still deserving of Persian rule. The Iranian Ayatollah is set on the Middle East followed by the easiest European nations that they can conquer. But they have a first objective on their plate, Mecca and Medina.

 

The United States need forget about Israel except as the front lines of this coming war, and it promises to be a big war getting larger every day it is permitted to grow. Iran just spent eight years sucking the blood from Russia in Syria using Russia to destroy the Sunni forces. This was aided by Sunni on Sunni warfare as ISIS battled with the Sunni rebels and both fought against the Kurds, with the Kurds winning those battles with American airpower assisting. This destroyed the Sunni forces which still refuse to unify and with only the Kurds having a cohesive force as the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds found their way to fight together when necessary and do so selflessly. That is why the Kurds are the sole Sunni power standing and why the Syrian and Iraqi Kurds need to be unified in a single new nation of Kurdistan as doing so would establish a solid Sunni Islamic force and another friend for the United States which would be free and democratic in nature. The United States needs to pressure Saudi Arabia to get on board along with Egypt as they represent the core strength of the Sunni Arabs. Currently the Saudis and Egypt are not together or even near being on the same page as each is using their own unique book. The Saudis are busy taking on the Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen who have again started hurling missiles at Riyadh and other provocations. This signals that Iran is ready to join forces in Yemen taking over Yemen as they did Lebanon and taking control of the Al Mandeb Straits granting Iran control over the Red Sea exit into the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean and on to greater Asia. This would permit Iran to completely isolate Europe by making the Suez Canal useless which would bring much of Europe to their knees within weeks as they depend on the oil and natural gas flowing as well as the trade routes.

 

Saudi Arabia was allied with Egypt in fighting Yemen but then Egypt started facing other problems and decided to throw in with Turkey half-heartedly. Now Turkey is discarding any concerns for pleasing Egypt and starting their turn to Iran despite Turkey presumably being Sunni. Turkish President Erdoğan is most concerned with following the strong horse and attempting to recreate at least a part of the old Ottoman Empire and declaring himself as the great new Caliph. He has likely promised to take the Kurdish areas as part of Turkey including Mosul while cooperating with the Iranians allowing them to control the remainder. The Iranians, after watching the Kurdish success against the Islamic State, probably see Erdoğan as a tool sent by Allah to remove any threat from their direction while allowing Iran to take what they require from Iraq and Syria. This has left Egypt alone and still fighting the Muslim Brotherhood which believes that Sisi stole their nation illegally and they might actually have an argument, but nobody is listening. Unlike his predecessor Obama, President Trump is not concerned in the slightest with the Muslim Brotherhood and their problems, he has sufficient problems at home in the Congress even with his own party members. Meanwhile, as President Trump butts his head against the Arab-Israeli problem and getting nothing, they will be busy preparing for their next phase and with creating as many nuclear weapons in secret as they are able. One can only assume that the Iranians have the exact same nuclear weapons schematics, as does North Korea, which means that Iran has a deliverable thermonuclear warhead which can be configured as an EMP device to destroy electrical grids and components or can be maximized for destructive power allowing for the destruction of most cities in the Middle East.

 

Iran already has signaled their next set of targets. They may permit Hezballah with some al-Quds forces, if the Palestinian Authority will permit them to set up a base in Judea and Samaria if not within Jerusalem, something which very well could already be in place, and IRGC forces to attack Israel from the Golan Heights border out of Syria attempting to leave their structures and tunnel systems in tact in Lebanon. Such a frontal war would grab the attention of the world, have the United Nations frantically attempting to be relevant, press the European Union into convulsive meetings after meetings while the United States pleaded with all involved to step back from the brink and try and prevent this from breaking beyond the cusp and into a full blown war across the Syrian and Lebanese borders. Israel would have to use such a conflict to destroy as many Iranian missiles and bases as they know exist. With the world engaged in stopping this blatant Israeli aggression while Israel defends herself from this assault, Iran will be able to press a front to take the majority of the Saudi Arabian oil fields while using a pincer movement from Iraq in the north and Yemen in the south to take Mecca and Medina and surround Saudi Arabia. Once the Iranians pull the pin on their Saudi Arabia attack, the only nations preventing their spread across all of Sunni Islam are Egypt and Israel. The Iranians are mostly descendants of the Persian Empire rather than Arabs thus they feel themselves superior to the Arabs as a people and see themselves as the true rulers for the world instead of the United States, China or anyone else, and are out to prove this.

 

The Iranian Probable Saudi Arabia Attack Plans

 

Once Iran has taken the Saudi Arabia oil fields, Saudi Arabia is finished, as all they will possess would be an ocean of sand and Mecca and Medina, the two Holy Cities of Islam. Iran intends to rob them of these at the same time. While this assault is underway, Iran will be vulnerable along the remainder of her borders. That is when Iran itself must be threatened forcing them to call off this attack and respond to their home-front. That would also bring them to the bargaining table once again where President Trump, if he had played his cards correctly, could completely renegotiate the Obama Iran treaty by formulating a new and realistic treaty where Iran was fully opened to inspections, report and release any nuclear weapons she has stored, reduced her missile capacities, remove her forces from Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Judea and Samaria, stop supporting terrorism both by supply of arms and by providing money and training. The new Iran peace deal would grant Iran her actual borders and leave her well informed that crossing these borders again would bring a world of hurt down upon them by Israel if not the United States. Also, this time Israel is also be a signatory to the treaty and be granted a direct say in its implementation and enforcement. The Saudis would also join in the settlement as part of the deal would reestablish the borders of Saudi Arabia and the assigning their keeping of the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina, providing they were not made into international zones run by the world as a whole, like is often suggested for Jerusalem. This treaty should include the United States as its main guarantor.

 

The only way that peace can be maintained, or restored should violence grow worse, will require the United States to simply pass on any Arab-Israel peace deal right now and start to prepare for facing down Iran before they declare nuclear breakout or do so by using a nuclear weapon using a nuclear warhead on Riyadh, Cairo or Tel Aviv at the very start of their assault on Saudi Arabia, their next large target. The Iranians could very well send multiple nuclear warheads at the above cities as their intent for hostilities as once they acquire the Saudi oil fields along with Mecca and Medina, they become the leaders of Islam and Shia Islam will be empowered while the Sunnis will be in even further disarray. Yes, we realize such is difficult to picture, but the Sunni Arabs could actually become more fractured and at one another’s throat. But with a fractured Sunni Arab world and useless Arab League or with a truly unified Arab League under a strong leader, either way and with such as an ally or with Israel as their only ally, that is the choice, the entirety of the Sunni world or Israel, not both, the United States must address Iran even before Kim Jong un in North Korea as Iran is the true threat to world peace and the only nation capable and currently willing to attempt world conquest. Should they be permitted a running start before anybody responds, Iran will own the oil fields, have three-quarters of a billion new Shiite converts as Sunni tribe and country after Sunni tribe and country seek to ally with the strong horse and leave the all but dead horse of Sunni Muslim Brotherhood or Wahabbist Islam for the Ayatollahs of Iran. That would be a Persian dream revenge come to fruition and full success. Already Qatar has joined with Iran and turned traitor to Saudi Arabia and refused to return basically telling the Saudis that they believe Iran to be their replacement and to be such soon. Additionally, Russia has allied with Iran for years and Iran already has full control of Lebanon, Iraq, and pretty much Yemen and Syria. Turkey keeps flirting and coming closer to Iran and away from their Sunni friends. Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the two powerful nations of the Sunni realm, have had a falling out over fighting the Iranian proxies in Yemen, the Houthis. This left Saudi Arabia all but alone in the fight against Iran in Yemen while the United States remains staying above the war as long as their naval base remains open for refueling ships after long trips from the United States and elsewhere. The pins have obviously been weakened and all lined up and Iran is choosing their bowling ball and will be shooting for a strike very soon, and the United States can sit safely theoretically beyond the ability of Iran to strike, but what if those claiming the United States is vulnerable are correct after all, then what? This is the reality in the world and nobody apparently cares to do anything but demand that Israel do nothing to upset Iran. Really?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Trump and Policies Simply a Train Wreck

 

Donald Trump gave his version of a foreign policy speech and we did not need even the transcript to be able to predict how it went. Before the Trump supporters start screaming and sending less than happy e-mails, Trump is still slightly preferable than either Democrat choice but only by the slimmest of margins and would be almost as amusing to cover than would Bernie Sanders. That out of the way, perhaps now we can discuss why Trump’s many and conflicting policy positions might be a good thing. First and foremost they show flexibility. Not many candidates can be so far afield so as to be on both sides of so many crucial issues. This allows the Donald to place a finger in the wind and change with the breezes. It also allows him to take advice from those who actually have a clue and read the teleprompter while still sounding bombastic to the frustrations and joys of the media. Donald’s problem is he is the best news possible to those that hate him and the worst possible candidate to those who actually support him. The real difficulty for both is to cobble together a core set of beliefs and mold a coherent set of policies to call them Trump. Instead, they should just revel in whatever one wishes to believe. Trump trumps the competition because somewhere in his policy statements, as varied as such may be, are those magic lines which each supporter can cling to like a life vest on the Titanic as his next sentence will be throwing you overboard as he crashes headlong into the iceberg everyone else saw coming.

 

So, if of the choices left of Trump, Hillary and a complete unknown have one leaning towards the Donald, what is it they can say and support about his policies? That actually may be easier than most think and still remain completely truthful. Donald Trump does not sound like he has any policies other than slogans and his unbounded love of self is actually a complete coverage of his current policy positions. Trump supports Trump as a policy and that may be the best of all possible positions as that is one he can really get behind. With Trump as Trump’s policy he can with certainty claim he supports such a policy wholeheartedly. Trump is the perfect answer to any and every question concerning policies and positions as Trump is the position nobody can argue against. What about immigration, he support’s Trump. Foreign policy, Trumps the game. The Economy, he’s wealthy, did you know that? And on taxes, he avoids them because that is Trump. Where does he stand on the Middle East, right here where he is standing at any moment, be it New York, Los Angeles or somewhere in between, let’s call it Kansas City. Hey, Trump’s the man and we all should realize that by now as he has told us so a thousand times just last week, or was that just yesterday, it is hard to keep track of the number of times Trump has touted the Donald as the answer to any question. That is what is so appealing about the man; he is his own best answer.

 

There is always a Steppenwolf song which describes most any situation and Hippo Stomp describes Trump. The particular refrain goes something like,

“If I should go astray and say “I lost my way”
Nobody would know me
But if I don’t believe I can and still say “Hear my plan”
Somebody would follow just because it’s free!

That is Donald as is the remainder of the song,

 

“If I should go astray and say “I lost my way”
Nobody would know me
But if I don’t believe I can and still say “Hear my plan”
Somebody would follow just because it’s free!

We’re all Hippos, rollin’ down the river
Sometimes we can’t touch the ground
Like Hippos slidin’ in the water
Somehow we’re stompin’ around

Now you can see me lyin’ down in my swamp
Any time I feel disgusted
You’ll see me do the hippo stomp
Hey, hey, you can try it when you’re feelin’ blue

If you should go astray and say “I lost my way”
Nobody will know you
But if you don’t believe you can and still say “I’m your man”
Somebody will follow just because it’s free

We’re all Hippos rollin’ down the river
Sometimes we can’t touch the ground
Like Hippos slidin’ in the water
Somehow we’re stompin’ around

You stop and watch me
While you’re out on your midnite romp
And I can feel the silent question
What the heck is the Hippo Stomp?

Let me answer you and let me tell ya true
Just how I feel when I’m down
Sometimes I wonder you’ll see me stumblin’ around
But you just point and stare

Come on, let me hear you
Somewhere there’s a voice down inside
And when you find it let it teach you
How to ask the question ‘Why’

Just because we live together, we don’t have to like each other
So please don’t fall asleep on me again
Nobody, nobody, nobody knows for sure
You just might never wake up from the dream

Hey, speak up, let me hear you, yeah
Let me show you ’round the reservation
I know my way around these parts, I’ve lived here long enough
Now you can have a taste, an indication of things and times to come

If you should go astray and say “I lost my way”
Nobody will know you
But if you don’t believe you can and still say “I’m your man”
Somebody will follow just because it’s free

Early in the morning, late at night
Somebody seems to know just how this thing work’s right
‘Cause every time I come around the corner
Somebody’s looking out my door
He’s been snoopin’ like a hound
I’ll grab his neck and shake him on down

We’re all Hippos rollin’ down the river
Sometimes we can’t touch the ground
Like Hippos, slidin’ in the water
Somehow we’re stompin’ around

We’re all Hippos rollin’ down the river
Sometimes we can’t touch the ground
Like Hippos, slidin’ in the water
Somehow we’re stompin’ around

We’re all Hippos rollin’ down the river
Sometimes we can’t touch the ground
Like Hippos, slidin’ in the water
Somehow we’re stompin’ around

I guess what we’re saying is when anybody asks you what you think Donald Trump’s answer or position is on any subject, you can simply answer, “His position is trumps (Trump’s) and as far as that goes, it’s the Hippo Stomp, man, the Hippo Stomp.” That will leave them scratching their heads and they’ll likely never ask you to explain a Trump position ever again and you can wear your Trump is trump button in peace. Granted, you will need to repeat this a lot, but only once per questioner, we promise. It explains Trump perfectly and is almost as straight forward, honest, forthright and as easy to understand as it is to discern actual policies from what Donald Trump states from one time to the next, which often comes as the next sentence, when queried on any subject. The only thing that we have found as a consistent theme from Donald is that Donald Trump is the answer we have been seeking. If that sounds eerily familiar, it should. There will be two main differences between a Trump Presidency and the Obama Presidency, advisors. President Obama honestly does believe he is always the smartest person-hood in the room and no other person matters quite as much. That is not to say he does not listen to those advisors closest to him, it is to say that his advisors share his wide visions just as ardently as does he and they are in complete agreement. Donald Trump, on the other hand, knows he knows little but also knows admitting such is poison to politicians and that he must tout himself as the smartest person in the room and hopefully he is finished goring other people’s hogs and will simply push Trump is trumps as the answer. The difference is Trump will be depending on those he places in positions around him for honest assessments and expertise and they will be setting the policy providing one thing, that they can explain it such that Trump understands the who, what, where, why and how of the position as then he can adopt it as his.

 

Odd as it will sound to many a Reagan enthusiast, that was mostly Ronald Reagan’s key to his success and had been the key to every successful President with very few exceptions. Nobody, outside a few egos around here, knows sufficient about almost everything to be able to be President and make it work. A good leader knows how to delegate, to whom to delegate and how to get the best possible people for every position. This does not mean you choose people with whom you know you will have difficulty agreeing, you choose at least three or four and no more than a half dozen people who care and are capable of taking the opposite side and playing devil’s advocate, or actually are the devil in the details, and then be capable of preparing you to take a position and defend it against all challenges. The secret is the team as a whole being more than just its individual parts. That is what one desires to keep them informed and on an even keel, or at least not capsizing constantly. Donald Trump has been all over the place on policies because he is avoiding being pinned to a particular position with a few core exceptions which are really as he believes. If Trump has been consistent on his position and not taken opposing views, and there have been a few more than those we have noted, then those are his core and his advisors will have a ‘huge’ (pronounced ‘Yuuchge’) job changing his position as they will need to both prove him wrong and then prove themselves right before he will budge.

 

Now these positions do not mean he knows how he will actually make actual policy out of his position and that is where his advisors will have their work cut out for them as he will insist that those items be executed faithfully. The Donald will also have a standing order that nobody correct him publically and instead allow him to disagree and correct himself as only he can and otherwise back him and make him look ‘Good,’ very good. The real Donald will become known by the people he chooses for his Cabinet and other advisors. Probably the most important advisors he will choose will be his foreign policy chief, his defense advisor and once he gets to it, the General he appoints as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Generals who will serve under that person as these will be the tactical advisors responsible for executing and advising on all things military as well as providing additional information on which foreign policies will rest. These Generals will likely be chosen in close concert with the Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State, two people who will be indispensable for the success of Trump as President. Until these people are in place and the new civilians have been briefed on the realities in the world, the threats, promises, promises of threats, threatening promises, adversaries and whether each is sane, rational, irrational, insane, predictable, or a loose cannon, then all intended policies can be adjusted to fit the reality and everything can proceed forward from there. Examples, Russia’s Putin is sane, cold, calculating and fairly conservative and very risk adverse and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is irrational, irreverent, dangerously unstable, unpredictable and possibly the greatest threat to pop up at the worst possible moment and finally the leadership of Iran is a group of religious fanatics led by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei (سید علی خامنه‌ای) who are calculating, unpredictable, self-serving, fanatical, supremacist and believe themselves directly guided by Allah and as such infallible.

 

Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, Sayyed Ali Khamenei

 

Of the three, Putin is the least dangerous and should be kept in regular communication such that he feels confident he will not be double crossed or ignored in those things he has a vested interest. The next least dangerous is probably Kim Jong Un as his resources are limited and he has desperate problems at home as his people are literally starving which does not bode well for extravagance, which is unfortunately how Kim Jong Un lives and this could eventually lead to a revolt especially as he has proven to be capable of turning even against his own family at the drop of a hat. The Iranians are likely the largest threat as they very likely already have nuclear weapons and are adding to their numbers as quickly as they can assemble additional and more powerful warheads. Their nuclear arsenal will likely soon outstrip those of the United States European allies and soon surpass Israel’s undeclared weapons and Iran is very likely to use their nuclear weapons as a first strike option and not as a deterrence and nuclear security weapon allowing their freedom of action unencumbered allowing them complete hegemony in the Middle East.

 

Iran has a discernible intent to want to supplant Saudi Arabia as leader of the Arab world despite they’re not being Arabs themselves and to then move to lead the entirety of the Muslim world converting all under their thumb to Shia Islam placing the Shiites over and above the Sunni who have held the predominant position in Islam since the split between the two main sects between the years 630AD and 650AD. After unifying all of Islam the Iranians will then proceed to unifying the world under the rule of Islam and eventually forcing all to convert or face the sword of Allah. Their war to convert and conquer the world may not wait until all of Islam has been mastered and converted to the Shiite banner, though the lion’s share of that will be required to facilitate the final conflict. This conflict can be initiated in the most violent and broad a front as imaginable and very easily could have the general use of nuclear weapons to decapitate the leadership of the strongest of forces which would stand in opposition. In the time leading up to such and in parallel to the conquest of all Islam, there will be measures taken to subjugate and take steps to assume power throughout as much of the world as possible using infiltration, much as Europe is currently facing.

 

Iran will be one of the main, if not the main, challenges for the foreseeable future and the most dangerous. They will also offer the greatest of opportunities to ally forces which currently appear to be in conflict even if mostly through economics (China) or through spreading influence (Russia and Iran). Whoever the Americans choose to be their next President, once again the biggest and most crucial threats and challenges will be in foreign policy. This was true during President Obama’s terms and he fell dreadfully short as many, ourselves included, feared he was destined to do. The world is that much more dire a situation as President Obama strengthened the most dangerous of regimes directly and did little if anything to discourage the rest of the threats allowing all threats to the Western World and culture to fester and grow more threatening. It may come to pass that history will lay the subjugation of Europe to Islam as directly attributable to President Obama and his petty policies executed apparently to spite the United States for perceived sins, some real and others imaginary. The reestablishing of the United States a predominantly a forced for good and an empowering ally more than a domineering imposition will be the greatest challenge going forward. It will be in this theater by which Presidents will be rated by history going forward as it has been since President Truman first chose to actually save the lives of countless Japanese military and civilians as well as probably approaching a million or two American and allied servicemen which would have been lost if Japan would have needed to be invaded on her home islands not to mention the strong likelihood that the Russians would have helped themselves to the Japanese northern most island. There has been temptations by revisionist historians to paint the use of the atom bombs by Truman as the greatest war crime ever perpetrated, but in reality it saved millions of lives as the Japanese would have fought to the last individual had the Emperor and military commanders not been shown the impossibility of their position.

 

Beyond the Cusp