Much of the news this past weekend informed us that the protests, revolution, civil war, government slaughtering its own citizens had reached its first anniversary and was heading into its second year with little hope of an end in sight. But does this pessimistic outlook actually reflect the reality in Syria? The answer to that question is actually still up for debate and the answer is completely dependent upon ones interpretation of events. So, let’s take a look at the facts and their implications for the immediate future.
The shelling has persisted on a daily basis with the ferocity and casualties, though undetermined by observers, appear to continue to climb steadily. It has come to light that the Russians have continued to supply President Bashir Assad’s forces with the necessary weapons of war though protesting that these supplies are not being used against the people. The flow of refugees fleeing the carnage into Turkey has prompted Turkey to consider clearing a buffer zone to accommodate the increasing numbers in order to keep them separate from the native population so they can be returned across the border once the violence has concluded. On the other side, it has been announced that Saudi Arabia will be sending arms and supplies to the rebel forces in order to facilitate an improved possibility of their being victorious. Along a similar line, Iraq has closed all transport access across their lands to Iran preventing direct land supply to President Assad. This has been seen as possibly slowing or preventing Iranian heavy weapons shipments as well as cutting deeply the number of ground forces which could be provided to Assad. Adding these points to the rest simply makes the case for continued violence without end. These have been the subjects the press has emphasized and the picture painted by them is extremely bleak.
Despite all the news reports with their heavy emphasis on the end of civilization is upon us reporting, there is some news which may be indicative of an end coming into sight. Towards the end of 2011 we witnessed the defection of some low and middle rank officers and larger numbers of enlisted troops bringing their weapons and strength to the rebels. This has continued into 2012 and has also begun to see the defection of higher ranked officers with some of the General rank officers now changing sides. Once the Generals begin to depart for safe zones where they will be beyond the reach of any vengeance from the rebels or going further and joining the rebel cause, that is the sign that the game is lost for the existing governance. This has been happening and took a measurable uptick this past weekend. I am not about to predict that the slaughter and violence in Syria will be ending imminently, but I will predict that we are entering the endgame and the rebels appear to be gaining the upper hand. My best guesses would place the end of the Assad dynasty in Syria should occur before the end of May, and with his fall the end of the major fighting. What follows is not as easily predicted and will depend on whether Assad is captured along with much of his remaining upper echelon of people. If that should be the case, then we will most likely witness some form of trial similar in nature and whose outcome will be just as predictable as the trials of the Egyptian leadership currently still proceeding. If Bashir Assad is offered safe asylum by Russia, Iran or any other country, then we are very likely to see extensive and prolonged purges and the hunting down of people who held any position of relative power in the Assad government for quite a while. This will continue until either the people tire of such or sufficient blood has been spent towards paying for the suffering under Alawite rule in Syria.
Should I be correct and the rebels take control over Syria, this will not be a victory for the Western nations beyond Syria no longer being an Iranian proxy. The new Syria will very likely form a strong bond with Egypt as the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists will be in command and ruling both countries. For a better picture of what this will likely resemble one need go back no further than the United Arab Republic (UAR) which existed from 1958 through 1961. The relations between Egypt and Syria remained tight even after the unity collapsed into separate rule until after the Yom Kippur War in 1973. The final nail in the coffin of their relationship came with the peace treaty between Egypt and Israel signed by President Sadat and Prime Minister Begin on the 26th of March 1979. Should these two countries which are perched on opposite ends of Israel once again merge their foreign policies, this will not bode all that well for Israel as eventually they will once again attempt to annihilate the Jewish State. The fall of President Assad will bring an end to what some have named the Year of the Presidents where revolutions removed numerous “Presidents for life” from their ruling perches in the Arab Middle East. Will this then usher in the possibility of the Year of the Kings where many other Muslim countries may be next for uprisings and possible civil wars? It’s the Middle East; you didn’t foolishly expect an end to violence, did you?
Beyond the Cusp
Beyond the Cusp 