Beyond the Cusp

November 25, 2016

Media Suddenly Discovers Dastardly Destruction Everywhere

 

With the election victory by Donald Trump and his running mate Mike Pence the media has discovered numerous pressing situations bordering on the brink of catastrophes. Suddenly Syria has become a conundrum of crushing confrontations waiting for the President elect while the current resident of the White House faced much lesser problems and addressing this would be asking a bit much. Oddly enough they also realized that Iraq is torn with ethnic strife as well as having much of its territory either occupied or threatened by the Islamic State. They also found that the Islamic State is operating as they please in Syria. Yemen is in the midst of a civil war and threatens a vital waterway at the south end of the Red Sea called the Bab-el-Mandeb. Saudi Arabia and Egypt have split with Egypt now aligning with Russia and Bashir al-Assad while Saudi Arabia continues to fight the Yemen Houthi rebels who are backed by Iran. The Saudis are also backing terrorist groups fighting Bashir al-Assad and some suspect they are knowingly funding and arming the Islamic State through alternate avenues. Turkey’s Erdogan appears to have suddenly gone rogue demanding immediate answers for Turkey’s admittance to the European Union (EU) one day and threatening to turn away any offer from the EU and consider joining the joint trading group organized by Russia and China called the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). There are warring tribal groups contending with terrorist groups and crime families all vying for control of their slice of what was Libya. The Sudan and South Sudan are still fighting and there is a civil war of sorts in South Sudan adding to the confusion. There are terrorists plaguing Nigeria and even Europe is being overrun. Their prognosis is that the election of Donald Trump has caused the nations of the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) to explode suddenly and fiercely into frenzied destruction and fighting breaking out everywhere. Additionally, Russia is protecting their ports in Syria, namely in Latakia, and thus also protecting Bashir al-Assad who is ever so slowly regaining control of Syria one costly meter at a time. Wait; Russia has use of a port in the Mediterranean Sea, this is big. Oh how simple things would have stayed had only the voters in the United States had chosen wisely and elected Hillary Clinton.

 

The sudden awakening of the mainstream media to the problems throughout MENA states and beyond is almost amusing. Anyone reading news services from these effected regions have known and spoken with furrowed brows and stern hard faces often using terse terms describing ongoing events which continue to spin further and further out of control. Many have laid the problems at the feet of fecklessness in the foreign policies of the United States over the past decade emphasizing the retreat and resentment at being abandoned left to the scoundrels and other threats without any hope of rescue from those they had believed were their ally and eternal friend. As long as the United States did not have even a dog in the fight, and we mean literally not even a dog, let alone manpower or military forces, these traumatic conflagrations were unimportant as far as the media was concerned. The White House ignored these problems while making the one-off mention brushing aside concerns as if they were nothing more than a hiccup on the timeline of history as the White House was making it. The White House and especially President Obama and his Secretaries of State Hillary Clinton and John Kerry along with Samantha Powers and Susan Rice, the pair were Presidential Security Advisor and Ambassador to the United Nations and then switched positions a while after Benghazi, have all painted the Middle East as there being a situation in Syria and the Israeli-Palestinian problem and if only Israel would make nice and completely surrender to the Palestinians then miraculously Syria would become peaceful overnight as would any other disturbance anywhere in the world. It is as if the only actual disturbance in the force is Israel, so does that make Israel Yoda? Seriously, the Obama White House position has been that Israel causes unrest throughout the Middle East and beyond and it is the Jews residing beyond the 1949 Armistice Lines on lands gained in a defensive war started by Egypt and Syria and joined on day two by Jordan despite pleading from Israel for their remaining neutral. This Jordanian attack led to Israel liberating Judea and Samaria from Jordan’s illegal occupation for nineteen years including half of Jerusalem.

 

Had Syria and Egypt attacked any other nation in the world and had Jordan joined on the second day and, for example let us say they attacked Peru; if Peru in that war had gained the lands of Judea and Samaria, they would have been allowed to retain the lands and even push any non-Peruvians off the lands with minimal complaint from the world. The problem is they did not attack Peru but instead they attacked Israel. There is an effort initiated by the British when they saw that allowing the formation of the Jewish State was going to upset the Arabs they decided to do whatever they were able to prevent Israel from ever coming to fruition. They could do this as they controlled the Mandate for the geographic area called Palestine, a name derived from the Roman name for the area of southern Syria, Syria Palaestina.

 

Roman Provinces of Syria Palaestina

 

The British after World War I continued to import Arabs to reside between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea with ample assistance from the Arab League and surrounding Arab nations from as far as Algeria though largely from the Sudan, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and even Turkey. This kept the Jewish population below fifty-percent thus never quite fulfilling the requirement of being capable of ruling a nation. In the aftermath of World War II the British had lost their taste for empire and simply wanted to leave the Middle East and particularly the area which was to become Israel. Ever since the British leaving and Israel being founded there have been numerous studies which have shown how the Arab world has designs to be rid of the Jewish State and how often the European nations are supportive of the Arab efforts as though they would love for Israel to fail, they do not have the will to cause such in any manner other than indirectly. Do not misunderstand as the Europeans gladly enrich their lives with the discoveries and inventions from Israeli sources and even have utilized some such as instant messenger programs to support the BDS (Boycott, Divestment and Sanction Israel) Movement and other injurious acts.

 

Denouncing Israel in the United Nations General Assembly and throughout the various agencies which often act in injurious ways such as when recently UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) ruled that the Temple Mount and surrounding areas have no historical ties to the Jews or Judaism which is a manner of denying the existence of the First and Second Temples and close to two-thousand years of Israelite and Jewish history. And UNESCO comes in a poor second when it comes to denunciations of Israel where the UNHRC (United Nations Human Rights Council) who have denounced Israel in virtually every meeting for the past five years. The General Assemble also has a poor record though there has recently been some small headway with Israel sponsoring resolutions which was passed by a vote of 129-30-8 to set up technical training, global entrepreneurship and sharing of technologic systems through assistance efforts where often Israel and other developed nations share technological advancements in areas such as agriculture and power generation assisting these developing nations making greater and stronger strides toward a bright future.

 

Needless to point out that all these problems, wars, conflagrations and turmoil have existed for much of the past decade and is not a reaction where the world all but exploded because of the election of Donald Trump. We can also predict some of the big news stories and special editions where a story is expounded and enlarged all passed off as news. There will be all sorts of new findings about the rampant homelessness and how people are feeling helpless and cannot seem to find any assistance for their plight. The mentally challenged living on American city streets not receiving their medications and suffering because of the difficulty in receiving proper care will be another feature story, multi-part most likely running for a week or for four straight Sunday night prime time. Unemployment stories will be big initially and the people who are now not considered to be seeking work as their unemployment insurance ran out and they have been unemployed over one year thus are not part of the computations, well, the media will now use a newer and more accurate definition which they will mention softly and in passing once and then count people who have not held a job up to five years, maybe a decade. There will be heartbreaking stories of youths dropping out of school and the United States will have a drug problem once again. There will be heart-wrenching profiles of people being deported for being illegally in the country whether that be overstaying a student visa because you found a good job and who wants to return to the Ukraine about now. There will be stories about how families are on the verge of being broken up as one or any number of the family are here illegally. Many of these stories will be about people who are using the system to press their particular case and many will remain and become legal citizens within a decade, but while they are uncertain their stories play oh so well. Let us leave you with what you may find to be an unbelievably astounding fact; President Obama has deported more people than any previous President.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 4, 2016

Weeds in the MENA Garden Conclusions

 

Here is a link. We covered the political upheavals, terror threats, alignments, backing of destabilizing forces and general conditions for all the countries from Western Sahara and Morocco to Iraq and Iran. This article will try to look at the reasons and future mostly dealing with the Middle East after a brief summary on North Africa. For reference here is a map of the area we will cover which adds Turkey to our considerations as they had a few mentions previously.

 

(MENA) Middle East and North Africa Including Turkey and Iran With North Central Africa

(MENA)
Middle East and North Africa
Including Turkey and Iran
With North Central Africa

 

The first step to understanding the area is to determine which nations are playing the controlling interests and what the status of the remaining nations have especially their ties to the controlling players (We can think of this as a game of RISK where only the MENA nations get to play). The players who are vying for the position of leader of the Arab and Muslim world do include one non-nation player which we should cover initially including naming some of their aliases. That force is the Muslim Brotherhood which never actually uses their real name when interacting. In Egypt their political influence is through the Freedom and Justice Party (Arabic: حزب الحرية والعدالة‎). Egypt’s former President Mohamed Morsi was a Freedom and Justice Party member and they still hold a plurality though not an outright majority of the Egyptian Parliament. Currently the Freedom and Justice Party holds 47.2 per cent of all seats in the country’s lower house of Parliament, while allied Islamist parties al Nour Party holds 24.7 and al Wasat Party holds 2.0 per cent, respectively. This gives the Islamists in the lower house of parliament a total of just under 74 percent, a solid majority and a limit on President Sisi’s ability to govern and accomplish all he would prefer to implement. In Turkey the closest alignment with the Muslim Brotherhood, though unofficial, is the ruling Justice and Development Party headed by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The relationship has its moments and President Erdoğan did support United States President Obama’s demand that President Morsi be released and returned to the Presidency of Egypt as its duly elected leader after the military coup. This demand continued even after the new elections were held and died a slow and thankfully quiet death and the rise of Sisi from commander of the military to the newly elected President of Egypt (more on this further when we talk about Egypt’s role in the MENA Garden). In Syria, before everything hit the fan and a civil war with more sides than can be easily defined, the Muslim Brotherhood was most closely aligned with the Islamic Socialist Front (more in depth discussion of Syrian Civil War will follow). There is even a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood closely aligned with the situation in Israel which is Hamas. In Iraq the Islamic Party is the largest Sunni political party and would have to be considered the closest link with the Muslim Brotherhood though they are not in a position of any real power as we will see. In Iran the relations with the Muslim Brotherhood are another case of strange bedfellows but in Saudi Arabia, which would pretty much include the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations though they can be less trident that are the Saudis who support the Wahabbist strain of Islam, the Muslim Brotherhood is considered as a terrorist group. Through the rest of North Africa the Muslim Brotherhood supports Sunni groups but has little interaction since al-Qaeda aligned Boko Haram swore allegiance with the Islamic State. Some have seen the rise of Islamic State as a challenge to the Muslim Brotherhood within the Islamist communities. The main influences which we will cover in greater detail are the Islamic State, Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Syrian War and Russian concerns in Syria.

 

The oldest force in the area would be Egypt if one were to count the Pharos but that civilization was a completely separate civilization, but we need an excuse to start somewhere. Egypt has the advantage of population as the most populous of the MENA nations. Egypt is also the home of the most respected school for Islamic thought, Al-Azhar University, located with Al-Azhar Mosque in Islamic Cairo and is the oldest degree-granting university. As far as Sunni Islamic thought and interpretation, Al-Azhar is the most prestigious university. It is the central thought center for all Sunni thought and interpretation. Al-Azhar sets the dogma and interpretations used in Quranic thought in all of Sunni Islam which includes near eighty percent of all who follow the prophet Mohammad. This is important as it was during a speech President Sisi gave at Al-Azhar University to a gathering of the entire faculty where he made a request, which has some weight as Sisi is the President of Egypt, the former General of the Armies and very popular with the population which elected him in what could be referred to as a landslide. He has made some moves as best as his position has allowed and without smashing too many toes and defeated every challenge from the Muslim Brotherhood, no small feat. The demand, or request if one is to be polite, was for the Al-Azhar University faculty and Imams throughout all Islam to work within the Quran and adjust the supremacist view of Islam and instead alter the chosen Sura from the Quran and use more of the Sura from the original Mecca writings and allow for them to supercede their contrary Medina version of the Quran. (For an introduction to the two separate versions of the Quran and many quality links throughout the comments may we suggest our article and the comments of Which Quran, Mecca or Medina? The difference between the two writings are so stark that there have been rumors that they were dictated by different people rather than the idea that Mohammad had a different set of circumstances when writing the two versions.) President Sisi did this not just once but in two separate speeches to the Imams of Al-Azhar University. Reforming Islam such that it is made such that it can coexist with other faiths and separates from politics completely and become simply a religion of approaching two billion adherents. President Sisi is also using his position to advance the idea of a unified Islam such that the Sunni and Shiite as well as the lesser sects coexist in a similar manner as the many different Christian groups exist in the world today without open warfare or denouncing of one another.

 

President al-Sisi initially Took his Jihad to al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt, Where on December 28, 2014 al-Sisi Delivered his Speech Insisting that Islam Was in Need of a Climactic Reformation if not a Transformation Redefining Jihad from External Violence To the Ongoing Internal Purification In the Eternal Search for Perfection

President al-Sisi initially Took his Jihad to al-Azhar University, Cairo,
Egypt, Where on December 28, 2014 al-Sisi Delivered his Speech
Insisting that Islam Was in Need of a Climactic Reformation if not a
Transformation Redefining Jihad from External Violence To the
Ongoing Internal Purification In the Eternal Search for Perfection

 

The next most influential Sunni nation would have to be Saudi Arabia with its oil wealth. In many ways Saudi Arabia and Egypt work together to defend Sunni Islam with their main threat currently being Iran. The third nation in the Sunni hierarchy is Turkey which is at odds with Egypt as Turkey largely supports the Muslim Brotherhood and called for the return of Morsi to the Presidency after Sisi and the military had removed him presumably at the behest of the people. Turkish President Erdoğan joined President Obama and the two were close for a period as they both stood in support of the Muslim Brotherhood. General Sisi rejected their demands and called for resumption of elected governance and arranged for general election to fill the now vacant office of President and for a new Parliament. Sisi had resigned his post leading the military before running which would have resulted in his being unemployed. The Egyptian Freedom and Justice Party, which is the Muslim Brotherhood representative in Egyptian politics, was included in the elections but Sisi had won the admiration of the Egyptian people and has delivered on his promise to be a reformer. This was proven with his speeches calling for rejection of the supremacy and spread of Islam by the sword rejecting the Muslim Brotherhood calling such calls for world conquest dangerous and injurious to Islam and predicted that such actions would only bring destruction down on the Islamic world. This position is not shared by the Wahabbists in Saudi Arabia or by Erdoğan and definitely rejected by the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood was founded by a core group who believed that Islam needed to return to its golden age by imposing the strictest possible and most extreme interpretations of the Quran and Islam which they claimed was during the supremacist periods of conquest and that only by returning to the spread of Islam by any means necessary would Islam return to greatness. President Sisi sees only destruction of Islam if such a policy were to be implemented in today’s world. As for which position is correct we would vote let’s not test both and see which proves superior as the destruction and potential end of human civilization should a full blown all-out war between the Muslim world and the rest of the world be fought neither side would win and only utter destruction would be the end result. Such a war would eventually result in the use of the most extreme weapons at human disposal which would bring on a catastrophic conflagration destroying both sides. As the WOPR computer stated at the end of the movie “War Games” after testing every scenario of thermonuclear war, “A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?”

 

War Games WOPR Computer

War Games WOPR Computer

 

 

 

 

What remains is Iran which can best be examined by explaining the war in Syria which includes the war in Iraq and the war in Yemen, all of which have an Iranian component as does the governance in Lebanon and the terror war against Israel. This will be quite a long explanation and will be best covered in our next article tomorrow, stay tuned.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 4, 2015

What is Already Resulting From the Iran Deal?

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There are already sales being arranged despite the arms embargo not being lifted for five years. Does anyone believe these sales are being scheduled for anything longer than immediately after the money is in the bank? You have probably heard about the Russian sale of the S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems which was prevented a while back by pressure from Israel for Russia to respect the existing United Nations arms embargo. Well, according to Iran that United Nations Arms Embargo was lifted the minute the agreement was reached and signed, well, signed by Russia, China, Iran, France, Germany, and Great Britain and passed by the United Nations Security Council as a Chapter Seven binding resolution so no longer necessary for the United States to sign the agreement as the United Nations has made it binding on every United Nations member. The United States could still decide as a policy not to sell arms to Iran and could even place trade sanctions on nation who do sell arms to Iran; but this would simply leave the United States open for a suit for impeding free trade. Meanwhile Russia has closed the S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems and the Chinese have struck a deal to sell Iran one-hundred-fifty Chengdu J-10 sophisticated jet fighters with Israeli avionics and finally, so far, back to Russia who is set to sell Iran two-hundred-fifty highly-advanced Sukhoi-Su-30MK1 heavy-fighter-bombers as well as one-hundred IL78 MKI tanker aircraft which with the Chinese aircraft providing tactical air cover and the Su-30s figured for both bombing and long-range intercepts or electronic interference to foil ground interceptors the Iranians could bring a heavy air assault with air refueling extending the range bringing much of MENA and Europe within range of air assault. This as well as the advancing Iranian missile technology increasing range and accuracy provides Iran with just one more method for bringing Egypt, Israel, Turkey and beyond within Iranian range for multiple assault combining sufficient assault vehicles to overwhelm any defensive system no matter how many stages and overlap exists or the number of aircraft which can be put into the air to assist with the defense. Within two years Iran will have full range ICBMs with greater range than their present ballistic missiles and even threshold continental ballistic missiles which can reach beyond Paris and with a limited warhead weight even reach London with a reasonable degree of accuracy.

 

Even the limited warhead load limit permitting these missiles reaching London they could still carry nuclear warheads once Iran masters a modicum of miniaturization of an atomic bomb, such a device could conceivably strike London thus bringing every European capital within range with the exceptions of Ireland and Portugal. Does this make any of those nations who have been criticizing Israel for sounding the alarm still feel comfortable? Saudi Arabia feels so confident that they have confirmed the standing of their relationship with Pakistan that should they require nuclear weapons on the quick and quiet that the Pakistani government remembers the debt owed the Saudi Royal family for financing much of their crash nuclear emergency program to equalize their standing against a newly nuclear armed India. So, please do not interpret the silence from Saudi Arabia as being a sign of their comfort with the newly entry of Iran as virtually the next nuclear armed nation as they are not at peace about such an occurrence. Neither is Egypt at ease with this situation as is evident from their assisting Saudi Arabia in their attempts to assist the exiled government of Yemen to retake their nation from the Iranian armed Houthis who broke out of their tribal mountain areas which the arms and support of Iran which provided them with superior weaponry and training making their military abilities far exceed their previous abilities. With the armaments which the Iranians are going to be capable of providing their proxies in the near future could alter a number of conflicts and even the rule of one nation over the coming months or at the longest a year or two. The immediate nation under threat is obviously Yemen followed likely by Iraq then either Lebanon or Syria.

 

Additionally with the recent agreement between Turkey and the United States to fight against those forces challenging the Syrian rebels which to the average Western citizen, especially those in the United States, such a deal would imply they would be targeting the Islamic State but initial reports would imply that the initial targeting has been against the Kurdish forces. This comes on top of thus far unconfirmed reports that United States has been charging areas where Islamic State was operating but after-mission reports showed that the strikes struck areas immediately before Islamic State forces advanced into these areas. These unconfirmed reports tend to lend credence that orders were given to assist the Islamic State in areas where they border Kurdish controlled areas. These reports come along with the report that Turkey has finally allowed for the United States to fly missions from airbases in Turkey. That makes all of this appear to almost make sense, especially since the Kurdish party made sufficient headway taking a respectable number of seats which preventing President Erdogan’s PKK Party from attaining their usual majority of seats making it incapable of making a coalition by itself. This has led to some very distasteful moves by Erdogan including attempting to strip the Kurdish Parliamentary members of their immunity from prosecution so that he can bring charges against them and once they have been removed in sufficient numbers after speedy trials and their party disgraced then claim that no coalition is able to be reached and have new elections in which without the Kurdish party’s influence the PKK should easily gain their usual position of being a one party coalition and complete the conversion of Turkey from the free society that Mustafa Kemal Ataturk transformed Turkey to after the fall of the Ottoman Empire was disbanded after its having been on the losing side of World War I and make it basically a dictatorship with Erdogan as their President for life with absolute powers. This result is supported fully by the Turkish branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.

 

Should Erdogan succeed in completing his refashioning Turkey after his own image, then comes the big question, which side will Erdogan fall this time the question is given and he needs to choose once the Kurds have been ejected out of Syria and possibly Turkey as well, placing the fortunate Kurds making their way to norther Iraq, and Erdogan can either attempt to hide in what he believes fortress Turkey or he can choose Islamic State, a very risky group with which for Erdogan to align, or align with Bashir al-Assad and the Iranian Mullahs and Supreme Leader, an alignment Erdogan once played with but pulled back when trouble began at home needing his full efforts to resolve. Should Turkey align with Iran and come into a symbiosis that could place NATO in danger of having to support Turkey if they were to become involved in an Iranian war against Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Gulf States, Jordan and even, believe it or not, Israel and requests NATO assistance, then what does the rest of Europe and the United States do as NATO members and treaty bound to assist Turkey in any armed struggle. Would NATO refuse because the war is not a threat to Turkey itself and is being fought far from Turkish lands and thus Turkey is not under threat of invasion and their people would be safe if Turkey simply ended their offensive invasion against a nation previously not hostile to Turkey or actually even Iran or any of their neighbors until outside influences forced issues such as in the Yemeni Civil War where Iran has armed the Houthis against the government. The Middle East will explode in ten different ways once Iran can announce or be suspected of having manufactured nuclear weapons which would make Iran a hegemonic threat to the entirety of not just the Middle East but much of the rest of MENA and Europe not to mention the large chunk of Asia which would become threatened from any Iranian designs in their direction. Then, within a short period of time they will have mastered further rocket technology allowing their development of ICBMs.

 

As it is, both North Korea and Iran have orbited satellites which travelled on a south polar orbit and have already practiced and sent satellites with payloads sufficient to represent an EMP size and weight nuclear warhead such that they circled over the United States entering from the south perfectly in the hole in the radar and intercept sites which is a known soft spots in defenses yet are being ignored by Congress despite some warnings by military members. There are a number of articles which deal with these threats as follows: Center for Security Policy Jim Woolsey: Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) is existential threat to America from July 30, 2013, which means this possible threat was known from long before the negotiations with Iran were finalized and we appeared to have a rather cavalier attitude at best, and Experts: Iran Now a Nuclear-Ready State, Missiles Capable of Hitting US By William R. Graham, Henry F. Cooper, Fritz Ermarth, and Peter Vincent Pry from Sunday, Feb 1, 2015, and finally Op-Ed: EMP Blackout Could Be Closer than You Think by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry and Ambassador to the Negotiation on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, former Director of Central Intelligence, former Undersecretary of the Navy and Co-Chair of the EMP Coalition Jim Woolsey from November 07, 2013. This is only one manner in which Iran (or North Korea) could use an alternate system which involves firing a single stage and likely solid fuel missile from within a freighter or cargo container ship. Iran has proven this as not only a possibility, but an actual usable tactic which they tested firing missiles from the Caspian Sea deep into the Iranian desert in the southern regions which were furthest distance from the ship repeatedly and have become extremely proficient. Such an attack could be carried out from any coastal area on the United States including from the Gulf of Mexico utilizing that very same blind area in the United States defenses and would reach the central location of the United States then shoot up to the necessary altitude and detonate knocking out the transformers almost from the Atlantic coast to the Pacific coast and from Texas on northward into central Canada leaving a large percentage of the United States to die over the first year and the likelihood that the system would be returned to service would take at least a decade and very possibly several decades. The scenario has been known and the military has taken some elementary steps but is mostly depending that their equipment already being hardened. This would work for an interim period as their generator trucks and backup generators would permit their bases to function short term. The military also realize that they would at some point have to return to the civilian power grid and that is where their problems would begin. Food preservation would have an initial problem but it would take military intervention to even begin to truck food from farms to the cities. Societal cohesion would be disrupted and the cities would become war zones where the gangs would have the initial upper hand as they are the ones with weapons.

 

Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories.

Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories.

 

 

The problem with the Iranian nuclear deal is on so many levels that one can hardly know where to begin. Listing the obvious ramification of freeing up over one-hundred-fifty-billion-dollars and infusing the Iranian coffers will have long reaching ramifications. Believing that the majority of these funds will be used to relieve the suffering of the poorest in Iranian society is a bit Pollyannish as they have already spent almost half the incoming cash on weapons from Russia and China alone. These purchases are sufficient to start a formidable Air Force even if one were to be starting from scratch. About the only items not on their shopping list are training aircraft for the pilots to start their learning with. One must assume that the Iranians will be using whatever aircraft remained in their inventory as trainers and then assigning pilots according to their abilities. The Iranians had stated quite blatantly and fiercely that their plans were to install their latest and greatest centrifuges to use in their cascades and start production of enriched uranium immediately. President Obama has mislead the American public when he stated that the Iranians would not have any uranium enriched to the twenty-percent level which is one step from HEU (highly enriched uranium) which was presumably making the world safe from Iran being capable of making sufficient quantities of HEU without the inspectors reaching an inspection date and then they would easily catch Iran if there had been any cheating as there simply were too many steps before they could produce weapons grade uranium.

 

This assumption was made on the theory that the Iranians would need at least two centrifuge cascades running around the clock for Iran with the centrifuges permitted by the agreement, as President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry figured, would take Iran close to a year. The problem this poses is simple, these newest centrifuges that Iran plans on installing can take the three-percent uranium and run it through a cascade which would appear nearly identical to the cascades with the older centrifuges unless somebody did a close inspection which would require knowledge of exactly what each version looked like and exactly how to tell them apart. The only matter they could easily discern would be that all the centrifuges were of the same variety and had recently been tested and verified safe for use. A cascade of the newest and greatest centrifuges, if information we have seen is correct, arranged in a cascade in an identical manner they would be capable of taking three-percent or slightly higher such as five percent, both of which are levels they are permitted to have in their stores and from which they will be permitted to run through what for all intents and purposes appears to be a standard cascade which would only produce approximately twenty-percent to twenty-five-percent enriched uranium. With the newest centrifuges in a similar cascade, which would not in and of itself arouse any superstition, the Iranians would be capable, with a few minor adjustments; to produce weapons grade ninety-plus-percent HEU in one run. That is one run taking three to five percent uranium and making HEU bomb ready uranium in a single run. Such is the difference between the earlier centrifuges and their latest designs and the agreement permits further studies and designing of even more efficient centrifuges which the world can feel guaranteed will be put into service once it proves to be efficient and sturdy thus reducing the time required to reach weapons grade uranium.

 

The agreement which we have all seen and which can be viewed in an easy to read format provided by a Russian outlet and translated to English and edited by Beyond the Cusp to remove wasteful formatting which made the agreement nearly impossible to follow is titled Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации which we assumed meant “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Vienna,” dated 14 July 2015. The problem starts when we find out that there is a second agreement which was formulated through indirect communications with both sides sending their communication via the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and never negotiating directly. This apparent exercise in insanity had a very good and deceitful purpose, neither side could reveal the context of the deliberations between the other’s side with the IAEA as such negotiations are guaranteed secret and secure. Where the White House could give out their versions of the negotiations but not the items which were permitted them under an oath of secrecy, which in this particular case the White House will have developed morality and will observe their promises of silence. What makes this situation all the more convoluted is that we cannot know what the final agreement stated and it is entirely possible that the entirety of the White House conversation might very well start with an outline with stipulations, restrictions, requirements and establishing a serious and intense inspection routine including immediate snap inspections of every nuclear site, working or idled by the deal such that the starting demands would even satisfy Senator Tom Cotton. The entirety of the rest of the White House negotiations with Iran might then consist of a series of ‘yes’ and ‘no’ statement with a number interspersed and maybe even a few word phrase but nothing which could lead one to any conclusions. The two items you will be guaranteed to never see would not be the Iranian initial expressions of acceptable conditions as their initial description of their side and its desires and expectations nor would you see the final document and its stipulations, rights and requirements on both sides.

 

Some of the items which we have learned in the weeks since the initial agreement was released with its numerous different variations as each side took their own liberties when translating it to their own language and liking. We have found out that the United States will be providing protection from cyber-attacks on the Iranian nuclear projects. The United States is sworn to protect Iran from and air assault on their territories. The United States will share with Iran the blueprints and specification of the United States’ most advanced centrifuge. What other schematics and diagrams the United States has promised to provide the Iranians remains a mystery. When this agreement finally leads to the inevitability it has put into motion, then the biggest question will be on which side has the United States chosen to support, the Iranian Axis which by then will control: the bulk of the world’s oil coming from the Middle East, the Straits of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Waterway which also controls both the Israeli port to the Indian Ocean and beyond to the Pacific Ocean at Eilat and the gem of the Egyptian economy the Suez Canal making it all but useless, and a large swath of land stretching from the Indian Ocean at it eastern edge to the Mediterranean Sea at its western tip. Iran likely may have defeated the Islamic State with United States providing the air power to assist in ending that Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda offshoot which initially appeared unstoppable.

 

Bab el Mandeb Strait located at the southern end of Red Sea near western edge of Yemen which controls land overlooking the waterway which allows for blocking passage from Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea traffic from through Egyptian financial collapse without fees collected from the Suez Canal made useless if Bab el Mandeb shuttered also making the Port at Eilat Israel closed from its access to Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and all of Asia and the west coast of the United States, Canada and South and Central America.

Bab el Mandeb Strait located at the southern end of Red Sea near western edge of Yemen which controls land overlooking the waterway which allows for blocking passage from Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea traffic from through Egyptian financial collapse without fees collected from the Suez Canal made useless if Bab el Mandeb shuttered also making the Port at Eilat Israel closed from its access to Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean and all of Asia and the west coast of the United States, Canada and South and Central America.

 

 

So, one has to wonder about what it was exactly that did stop them, was it the requirement that they rule these peoples they had now conquered and had gained a home-front which required order and allowing the farmers and others to tend to their business in peace and with the guarantee that the police would keep the peace. At some point the battle will break down to which truly is the stronger horse, the young stallion that burst onto the scene seemingly out of nowhere, their leader’s name is Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Ali Muhammad al-Badri al-Samarrai (in Arabic إبراهيم عواد إبراهيم علي محمد البدري السامرائي) and now simply known as al-Baghdadi; on February 2, 2004 he had been captured near Fallujah and been detained at Camp Bucca detention center under his name Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim al-Badry and was held in Iraq until some time in December 2004 when he was released, as ‘low level prisoner’ after which during the Syrian civil insurrection he came upon opportunities to use his skill to catapult his group from simply an al-Qaeda cell into a self-sustaining entity controlling a large swath of land and across Syria and into central Iraq. Eventually Iran and the Islamic State will necessarily meet head to head, mano-a- mano and then the best force will prevail and one headache will have been eliminated by an adversary doing the world a favor. By the time this draw-down has occurred, Iran will have attained nuclear weapons but will not use them against the Islamic State as their use will be reserved for a larger and more important enemy, namely Israel and the United States, but not another Islamic nation as these it is best to convert the population after proving the superiority where Allah visited victory on the Shiite troops and then offer the fighters from the vanquished side to magnanimously accept them into the forces for truth, the forces favored by Allah who gave them victory. Should these fighters accept the offers remember that they should be placed at the front and be the tip of the spear where Allah can test their conviction and faithfulness and if theirs is a true conversion then Allah will grant them the commission of heroic deeds and if not they will join their former officers who were tried for their crimes against Allah through their organizing and sending brave but misguided soldiers to execute the plans to visit harm on the true forces if Islam. These are the perceived gains received from the Islamic State war with the Shiites of Iran and Iraq along with Hezballah completing the forces of Shia Islam who do appear to be the superior force which has gained the blessings from Allah.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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