Beyond the Cusp

January 25, 2018

Time for United States or Turkey to Leave NATO

 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has received the requisite permissions from Russian President Putin to assist in their war to reinstate Syrian mass murderer Bashar al-Assad as the uncontested dictatorial ruler in all of Syria. Now Erdoğan, in his best al-Assad imitation, has launched an all out assault on the Kurds in northern Syria. There are few questions as to what Erdoğan views as the result of his efforts will produce. His desire for a Greater Turkey, or the new Ottoman Empire, will include the areas south to include Aleppo and to the southeast to include Mosul and potentially Kirkuk. Erdoğan is poised to engage and eradicate the Kurds by ethnically cleansing the entire areas which they currently hold. The fact that the Kurds were crucial in the containment and following defeat of the Islamic State matters not to Erdoğan, they are simply the wrong kind of Muslims in his book, making them just slightly less offensive than were the Armenian Christian population to the Ottoman Empire in the ramping to World War I between 1915 and 1917 and the Armenian Genocide. What is unfolding before the world is the result of the denial of the Kurdish desire for their own independent nation after their Kurdistan referendum where 93% voted for independence.

 

Where there was one nation who backed their vote and called for recognition of the nation of Kurdistan was Israel but as the United States having just finished an election resulted in a hasty decision based on the recommendations of the State Department and many at the Pentagon, both of which told the Kurdish leadership the same thing they told the Zionist leadership in 1948, wait, the time is not right and it will cause the United States difficulties which they refused to endure. You know the world has made a huge misjudgment when a maniacal egomaniac is given a green light to start and conquer lands they crave through a genocidal cleansing of the very people who desired to simply live in peace who were told their desire for a homeland was too much bother and they should wait. The difference is the Zionists did not listen to the State Department or Pentagon (Defense Department) and President Truman also made up his own mind remembering the Biblical lessons his mother had taught him in his youth. Unfortunately, the Kurdish leaders heeded the warnings from Washington and will now likely bear the consequences. Also, the fact that the Kurds in Iraq and their brethren in Syria are far apart politically also meant that only the Iraqi Kurds were polled and there was no consideration to include the Syrian Kurds. Until the Kurds can unite under a singular leadership and unite in their political preferences preferably choosing democratic capitalism over socialist governance, they will remain two separate groups and thus weak and easy victims. How far Erdoğan decides to push might depend on Russia and Iran, as they might not support his extending into Iraq. Defeating the Syrian Kurds is obviously supported by Russia and Iran as it furthers their efforts to reseat Bashir al-Assad, beyond that would only be accepted if they were working with the Iraqis. What will be interesting is the reaction of the Russians and the Iranians when they realize that Erdoğan intends to retain the extra territory he gains, conquers, and has no intention of stepping away and gifting the lands to al-Assad. That just might be where the coalition agreement comes to a brittle and violent end.

 

Greater Turkey

Greater Turkey

 

The real question will be whether or not United States President Donald Trump notices this little item in the news and whether it registers. The good thing is it will be easy to tell whether or not the President notices, simply watch his Twitter feed. Beyond that, we would be ignoring our responsibility if we did not provide our positions and any background we might have. The easiest way to address this is to go chronologically in reverse order on our main articles involving Turkey and NATO. Our articles start with NATO and the Turkey Problem from November 29, 2015; then Turkey Needs to Prove They Belong in NATO Now from September 18, 2014; and lastly we have our original article on Turkey and NATO, The Turkey Problem for NATO from January 15, 2010.

 

Perhaps we should go back as to when, why and how it was that Turkey became a NATO member state. Turkey was included into NATO along with Greece on February 18, 1952, under the direction of President Harry S. Truman as he declared that the United States would support and back militarily any nation threatened by the Soviet Union. Marking this declaration, President Truman announced the inclusion of Greece and Turkey into NATO and thus under the NATO umbrella. These two nations were the first additions since the founding states on August 24, 1949. NATO was the Western states answer to the Warsaw Pact nations under the auspices of the Soviet Union. Thus was the genesis of the Cold War which lasted until the end of the 1980’s and the fall of the Soviet Union and its satellite nations leading to a rapid expansion of NATO absorbing the Warsaw Pact nations which desired to join. This almost led to a second cold war which would have been an empty threat as these nations now had their own democratically elected governments and governance which departed from their old alliances.

 

That brings us to the current day where there is no real Communist threat from the Russians. With Turkey now aligning with Russia and the Warsaw Pact having collapsed, the reasons why Turkey was drafted into NATO are no longer viable reasons for their remaining a member of NATO. The time has long passed to reconsider the reasons and current politics and whether Turkey still offers anything to NATO or are they a threat to NATO. Then there is the question of whether NATO even has a purpose in the modern world. NATO could, and maybe should, be transformed into a trade union where the nations assure the rest free trade. The one thing the United States must determine is whether or not free travel and open borders between NATO nations is a good idea, and if that is to be permitted, then United States need assess whether or not they desire to permit such travel with all of the NATO members. There are many other international organizations which perhaps the United States and some, if not many, of their allies might decide that they have become counterproductive and require replacement. We would suggest a new international organization to replace a number of organization which have fallen to some form of political correctness and place that before their mission statements as group think has replaced honesty throughout much of today’s world. So, obviously we feel that either Turkey should be required to resign from NATO or the United States should resign from NATO.

 

Let us enter into BTC World, where things are as we envision the world. The United States places a challenge before every organization in which they are members. For the sake of brevity, we decided to use the following organizations, NATO, the International Red Cross, and the entirety of the United Nations including all aligned organizations and courts. Taking NATO first, the test is very easy, take a vote on permitting Israel to join and when the vote fails, the United States should resign from NATO. Simultaneously, demand that the International Red Cross accept Magen David Adom and when they refuse once again, the United States should pull out. And as far as the United Nations, the United States need not bother and should simply resign. Then the United States with Israel could begin a new international peace organization and allow any nation to petition for membership. Of course each nation should then be carefully deliberated as to whether or not they are worthy of inclusion. This new organization could easily replace all the aforementioned groups and affiliated functions. Imagine a world organization where Israel is not condemned automatically at the opening of every session such as the United Nations Human Right Commission or the United Nations General Assembly. Do not fear; the International Red Cross has their difficulty as they accepted the Red Crescent but refused Magen David Adom. For some reason we doubt it has anything to do with their sign being blue but rather it being two triangles, one inverted being superimposed. Perhaps they fear accepting such a sign would lead to it bursting into flames. We promise that none of the Magen David Adom vehicles have spontaneously combusted; any that have caught fire had a lot of assistance in doing so.

 

Burning Israel Star of David

 

The Israel test is a simple means of seeing if any of the plethora of international and regional organizations acts objectively. One need simply test to see whether or not the nations have chosen Israel out for particular consideration, negative consideration, and further their cooperation with the United States as a modifying test and see whether they pass that test. The sorry thing is that the vast majority of nations will be unable to pass such a threshold to enter into this new alliance. Using the United Nations General Assembly vote in reference to the United States recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel there are but nine nations who would be easily admitted; Guatemala, Honduras, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Togo and United States. There were thirty-five which abstained allowing them to receive additional considerations by checking other votes condemning Israel and checking their history and these nations are; Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Australia, Bahamas, Benin, Bhutan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cameroon, Canada, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Fiji, Haiti, Hungary, Jamaica, Kiribati, Latvia, Lesotho, Malawi, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Rwanda, Solomon Islands, South Sudan, Trinidad and Tobago, Tuvalu, Uganda and Vanuatu. The final group was those who simply decided not to even arrive and take any stand which includes these twenty-one nations which include; Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, East Timor (Timor Leste), El Salvador, Georgia, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Mongolia, Myanmar, Moldova, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Samoa, San Marino, São Tomé and Príncipe, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Tonga, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Zambia. The remaining one-hundred-twenty-eight General Assembly nations would find joining the United States new and rather exclusive group of nations for special and favorable treatment far more difficult. We realize that such events are a pipe dream, but without dreams what is life. We hear about Dreamers from the media all the time and how they are special and need our sympathy; what makes our dreaming any different? Yes, we realize dreams that Israel be treated fairly by international organizations are deemed unacceptable by the vast majority of the world. The world loves many things which originated in Israel such as cherry tomatoes and use the medical, agricultural and scientific discoveries and high tech inventions not to mention cell phones and security and encryption programs along with discoveries in all fields of science including life saving surgeries. Many nations have received exceptional and experienced teams who carry-out search-rescue and field-hospital alleviating their distress and giving life-saving assistance in every sort of emergency be it storms, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanos or other forms of emergencies. Unfortunately too many of these nations forget such aid when the time comes to vote to condemn Israel for virtually any reason. That is why the Israel test is such a viable test which it is sad so many nations fail such a simple test.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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April 13, 2017

Frightening Challenges Facing All in the World

 

Syria is a problem from which there may be no good solution as there is much confusion and has as many facets as a rare gem, each reflecting hostilities on all the others. Every side of this entanglement fights for their own glorification seeking supremacy. Bashir al-Assad is attempting to prove that he is as worthy to carry the torch of leadership as was his father and to the grand level his deceased brother was expected to bestow on the nation as its President. He is attempting to overcome having been always the lesser son whose superior brother died tragically leaving him as the nation’s second choice. His attempts at overachievement could be diagnosed as some twisted form of Napoleonic Syndrome despite his height but due to his being measured by his father as always coming up short of what a leader should be. Add to the mix there is the Islamic State whose leadership fully believe that they are serving a greater purpose and are the proper leadership of all Islam and that they are defining the religion for every Muslim in the world. Their initial military successes have come to a crashing halt and are starting to find their opposition making valid and strong challenges and taking back territories which the Islamic State had initially conquered. Then there are al-Qaeda and other terror groups fighting representing the Sunni opposition to Alawite rule as it is a form of Shia Islam which they oppose and believe are apostates. There are also the Kurdish militias which are mostly concerned with defending their people and are having the greatest challenge coming from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the President of Turkey, who has claimed to be fighting the Islamic State and other terrorist groups but has used the majority of his troops to attack the Kurdish populations. Additionally there are the Iranian forces which mostly consist of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) who Iran is backing further with Hezballah terror militias from Lebanon. From time to time these two groups attempt to draw Israel into the war by launching artillery or rockets into the Golan Heights. Israel will return fire when they have a solid set of coordinates on which to return fire and which also do not endanger civilians but, other than these, Israel refuses to be drawn into the fighting. Finally there is Russia who is most interested in retaining their two naval ports which are within the Alawite region of Syria which places them in the position of supporting Bashir al-Assad. The recent presumed bombing of targets with chemical weapons such as Sarin Gas which murdered civilians received a strong attack from the United States on the originating airfield with over fifty Tomahawk Cruise Missiles. This drew a strong rebuke by both al-Assad and Russian President Putin.

 

By comparison, the remainder of the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) is only slightly less violent and confused. Yemen is also in the midst of a civil war with the Houthis being backed by Iran while Saudi Arabia is supporting the government forces of President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. Egypt had supported the Saudi Arabian side providing mostly air support but lost faith in the situation and no longer supports anyone in the Yemen civil war. Libya is a complete disaster with tribal forces warring for preeminence while terrorist forces use some contested areas for training recruits readying them for fighting usually elsewhere. At one point al-Qaeda and Islamic State had cleared out territories they used for training but when they came under attack by tribal forces decided to simply leave as they had no reason to take part in the wars in Libya. The Sudan and South Sudan, which declared independence on July 9, 2011, have remained in a state of conflict with the Sudan sending militias forces raiding their southern neighbor as the Sudan has not fully recognized their independence and still believe that most of the people of South Sudan to be infidel or inferiors and see their military actions as a cleansing the territory of enemies of Islam. Somalia continues to be basically without true governance and has become a destabilizing force for its neighboring nations most notably Eretria as well as Kenya and Ethiopia. There are further threats centered on Nigeria with Boko Haram attacking Christian villages and other sites as well as Islamic villages where they kidnap “volunteers” to fight in their Islamic Army. Boko Haram had pledged their allegiance to Islamic State but whether that remains intact is questionable. All of these Islamic disruptions are largely traceable to what was often referred to as the Arab Spring which largely destabilized the entire area of MENA with the exception of places where there existed strong dictatorial governance such as Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States and Egypt which survived due to the military taking back the control they had lost to the Muslim Brotherhood after President Mubarak was forced from office under direct pressure from United States President Barack Hussein Obama. Iraq is still in a state of unrest with the Sunni and Shia segments of the population still facing difficulties resulting from a premature removal of United States forces by President Obama who was fulfilling a campaign promise sparking a low level of conflict. Meanwhile the Kurds are continuing to provide their own defense and act as if under semi-autonomous rule. Then there is a problem where the developed world has been inundated by refugees from these many conflicts plus increasing unrest and instability in Afghanistan leading to the new United States President, Donald Trump, to impose a temporary ban on immigration from seven nations where vetting to identify terrorist entities has proven difficult. This ban has fallen into court challenge and is still to be resolved but odds are the ban will stay in place for the ninety days while new vetting procedures are finalized.

 

Allied loosely with Syria and Iran is another problematic location, North Korea. The erratic leadership by Kim Jong Un who has ordered executions of senior officials including his uncle and also ordered the assassination of his half-brother all in the name of national security but actually to secure his position from any challenges. Kim Jong Un has also been petulant and often challenges the United States claiming that he is prepared to reply to any and every provocation by the erratic leadership of who he calls the nation’s greatest enemy. With the recent attack on the Syrian airfield both Kim Jong Un and Bashir al-Assad have denounced the United States as being imperialistic, colonial and using false excuses to try and extend the autocratic rule of the United States over more of the world through many varied and devious means. Both leaders have recently threatened to attack the United States or its forces and allies wherever and whenever possible and as necessitated by the warlike actions of the United States. The most violent of threats have come from North Korea and have been taken seriously as by many measures, Kim Jong Un is considered to be irrational and possibly not entirely rational and sane. The latest episode is currently playing out as the United States has diverted an aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) and her strike group from harboring in Australia and is having them head towards the Korean Peninsula passing through the western Pacific. Kim Jong Un has raised the specter of a nuclear strike against the aggressor United States if a posture of war should continue and claims to be watching closely any aggressive behavior by the United States and its allies.

 

A World All Upside Down

A World All Upside Down

 

Add to this the threats by Syria and the displeasure shown by Russian President Putin and there are quite a number of signals which could be interpreted seriously wrong and any one could have devastating consequences. Needless to say, such unrest around the world, nerves frayed and on edge and troops moving and shots being taken on two separate fronts, one in the western Pacific Ocean, Sea of Japan, East China Sea, Yellow Sea and possibly the Bay of Korea while the other is in the Mediterranean Sea, the world is balanced on a razor’s edge unlike anything since the end of the Cold War. We are a far cry from Cuban Missile Crisis stage but the world need take a deep breath and calm itself before somebody somewhere misreads intents and starts something which could quickly fly out of control and lead to serious sets of actions, reactions and counter reactions ending who knows where. Add in the increased amount of terrorism and rising crime rate in much of Europe and that simply adds another tinderbox to the sparks and electrical arcing from friction and frayed wires on too many fronts. You know things are tense when Israel is seemingly a singular place where the level of unrest could be considered calm, at least this far into the year. Being nervous is seemingly in fashion for world leaders currently and that is never a good sign. We need to remember that it was the assassination of a little known Austrian Archduke named Fred, well, you’re right, Ferdinand, but I bet his friends called him not Fred but Archduke Fred, which started the War to End All Wars. That War later was renamed World War I as it led kind of directly to World War II and if there ever should be a World War III and the human race survives, it will be traced in some means to World War II and thus World War I. If we were honest, we would realize that one could trace all warfare back to Cain’s Murder of Abel if we really tried, so don’t be too complacent, the world leadership sure has not been of late. We have too many people thinking they should rule the world or they already rule the world and all of them are mistaken, or at least we had best hope they all realize such. They won’t and we will all be the worse off for it.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 10, 2017

Did Trump Just Give Putin a Way Out of Syria?

 

The article by Mark Langfan for Arutz Sheva is a good read and has some interesting propositions. His optimism and suppositions would make the world a safer place if they came to fruition but perhaps we should scale back the ideas of future cooperation and settle for the possible over the preferable. Peace and secure and unchallenged borders throughout the Balkans would be wonderful but are not exactly possible as the spirits there are too unsettled and restless. Further, it is not likely that Putin would settle for just one-third of the Ukraine plus the Crimean Peninsula as he desires the weapons manufacturing capabilities in the central regions of the Ukraine and all the wheat fields to feed all of Russia just as Stalin had done. Putin would never allow his prize to become part of NATO. But the one interesting piece from the article was the exit policy which, with the world and their condemnation of Bashir al-Assad over the release of Sarin nerve agent on a civilian population, gives Putin the perfect excuse. His theory is Putin will use this incident to pull his support for al-Assad and then working with NATO, or with Trump to be more accurate, will place an acceptable, and presumably pliable, leader in Syria in return for the two naval bases and airfield and then everyone will be free to remove ISIS, the Islamic State, working in coordination. We hope at least this part of Mr. Langfan’s exercise in a proposed future in Syria and the rest of Europe, the Balkans and Ukraine will come to fruition. It almost appears that Mr. Langfan believes that Presidents Trump and Putin are cooperating in a pact of mutual endorsement and support, likely a misconception, but still appears to permeate his thinking.

 

Unfortunately, thus far President Putin appears to be stanchly defending Bashir al-Assad and placing the blame on the munitions kept presumably by the rebels, possibly ISIS, at the targeted location. That is not the actions of a man who is planning on deserting al-Assad to replace him with anyone, especially a Sunni. Russia is not about to alter their cozy relations with Iran either. Had Russia any plans on removing al-Assad and deserting their support for Iran, the delivery early this year of the S-300 anti-aircraft batteries would never have happened. Russia is firmly committed to the Shia cause and the projected plans by Iran to spread Shia Islam across the Middle East and eventually on to Northern Africa and beyond. What the Russian plans are, is quite a mystery but the Iranian plans are an easy read as it is all in their holy books under Jihad.

 

The Mullah of Iran intend on spreading Shia Islam to every corner of the globe, including Russia. Their plan is not to accomplish this by this year or even in the lifetime of the Supreme Leader nor the next Supreme Leader or necessarily the next or the next but eventually there will be one who does finish their destiny. The leaders of Iran are assured that their viewed destiny cannot be prevented because it was written in the Quran and Allah’s will can never be denied. Of course the Sunnis, such as Islamic State or the Royals in Saudi Arabia, also believe the same verses guarantee their eventual supremacy of the entire world. I know what some are saying, both sets of what some of you are saying. One group is claiming that they cannot both be correct and there is another group simply exclaiming for us to give them a break and are we really trying to push that crazy Islam intends to conquer the world canard? The latter groups will claim that nobody still believes they can honestly conquer the world and that the idea of conquering the world went out after the death of Alexander the Great, when Rome fell, with the end of the British Empire, or when the Soviet Union collapsed. Well, here are a few little clues which may answer a few doubts. First, we are not claiming anything new with the idea that, Islam will conquer the world because it is Allah’s will, that is in the Quran. The Quran can be confusing for many reasons, first of which is it is not arranged in chronological order, it is arranged for ease of children memorizing it starting young so it is in order from shortest to longest. For more information we wrote an introductory article a number of years back which we should update when we get a chance.

 

As far as nobody thinks they can conquer the world any more, allow us to mention a few other than our Islamic friends, allow us to introduce the Chinese in command of the mainland who have yet to surrender on the concept of a world ruled by their improved version of Communism with a touch of Capitalism, and there is Putin who was sold before he became a member of the KGB that Russia must rule everything. Also, there is our chubby friend Kim Jung Un who is just insane enough to still think he will be the one though he can be discounted due to lack of sanity and we are sure there is someone else somewhere who cannot let go of the megalomaniacal hope that they will one day rule the world, if not the universe. Just because the western world reached the conclusion that the world was not capable of being conquered and it was more profitable to engage in commerce does not mean that everyone else in every other part of the world also saw such as the only sane result and still believe the best way to attain world unity is not cooperation but by their singular conquest of the world or the complete domination of their philosophy, rules and religion. The world does not run under one philosophy or one set of understandings. That has been a somewhat difficult belief to have some in the western world to understand as they honestly believe that the rest of the world has or will adopt western culture and ideas as they honestly believe that it is superior. Surprise, that is also a form of conquest of the globe through a less violent means, by cultural dominance erasing all other cultures. One of the problems with this idea is that not all of the globe has electricity and many nations closely monitor all information and even music from coming within their borders. Some manage this through propaganda or religious edicts and strict enforcement.

 

What matters is that there really are bad people by western standards of Judeo-Christian morality. Don’t start rolling the eyes at the use of the worlds Judeo-Christian morality as that has been the dominating force in the western world which allowed for the scientific revolution and the progression to the separation of church and state which allowed for the technological progress of the last few centuries. That was not universally the case and as the western world made great progress and appeared to become dominant, the Islamic world crept into their shell and believed that returning to their original roots when they were dominant, the seventh century through eleventh century when they were on their way to conquering the world (see map below). Islam has been waiting for their opportunity to return to preeminence. The Saudi Arabians believed they could buy that future with their oil wealth along with the other Arabian Gulf States, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and have been buying the necessary weaponry over the years and have been supplying much of the arms and funding, through back channels for deniability, for the Islamic State, formerly ISIS. They were the money behind al-Qaeda, provided fifteen of the nineteen hijackers on 9/11, have assisted the Wahhabi sect of Islam which have their own designs on world conquest and have expended too many American and allied soldiers fighting their wars to keep them safe. Some concepts and beliefs die hard and Islam promise from Allah of ruling the world might just top the list.

 

Spread of Islam Across North Africa and into the Iberian Peninsula

Spread of Islam Across North Africa and into the Iberian Peninsula

 

The conclusion of this is that Putin has signed on with Iran and the Shiites for better or worse as the Sunnis betrayed Russia when they switched sides changing over to American arms and protections. The odds are Putin not only remembers the betrayal but that it weighs heavily on him and is a part of his reasoning of supporting Iran. He likely sees Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Sunnis and the main reason why he will not betray Iran and thus stand by Bashir al-Assad. As for was al-Assad responsible for the Sarin Gas chemical release, that will remain something which might be discovered in whatever ensuing investigation is conducted. That also could depend on who does the investigation. It is possible there will be multiple investigations with them being at odds with one another depending on which side conducts the investigation. Such is the state of our world and it could not be more dangerous.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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