Beyond the Cusp

July 17, 2019

Democrat Hopefuls Finally United on Israel


There has been a single outlier when it came to Israel until recently, Joe Biden. Joe is now planning on touting his pressuring Israel when under President Obama. Mr. Biden answered a self-identified Jewish activist who inquired, “I’m an American Jew, who is very concerned about what Netanyahu’s government is doing to Palestinians currently.”


Biden curtly replied, “There’s no answer but a two-state solution.”


But the young man was not satisfied and further insisted of Biden, “”I am wondering if you think that the occupation is a human rights crisis, and if you’ll pressure Israel when you’re President.”


Biden expanded his answer claiming, “The answer is I think the settlements are unnecessary. The only answer is two-state solution, number one. Number two: the Palestinians have to step up to stop the hate. So, it’s a two-way street.”


Continuing to press Joe Biden, the man insisted to know if Biden believes, “the occupation is a human rights crisis.” Biden shot back stating, “I think occupation is a real problem, a significant problem.”


In yet another exchange, the young man insisted that Biden tell him whether, “And will you pressure Israel to end the occupation as president?” Biden answered simply, “You know I have.”


Further, there is this short recording explaining his positions here.



We found this in an Israeli news source which can be read here. We already discussed where Elizabeth Warren stands and her positions are very nearly identical to the Biden answers just reported. But this set of quotes from a recent confrontation at a campaign event and Joe Biden has crossed over to supporting the Palestinian Arabs and their efforts to destroy Israel. So, where do the remainder of the candidates stand on Israel? Here is a talk by Elizabeth Warren speaking on Israel and foreign policy.



Another candidate is South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has stated that should Israel not withdraw from the “settlements,” he would cut all financial aid until Israel buckled. Sounds very similar to our warnings over the last year that after President Trump the United States could very easily elect a Democrat President and potentially also taking the Congress allowing the Democrats to do to Israel as they are promising they desire doing.


Pete Buttigieg Twitter Post About Israel

Pete Buttigieg Twitter Post About Israel


The rest of the Democrat field are covered here giving information about California Senator Kamala Harris, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio who is a staunchly pro-Israel politician, New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has also already launched her bid as a traditionally being supportive of Israel, yet she penned an op-ed in The Forward in August 2017 explaining her decision to oppose the Israel Anti-Boycott Act, plus Texan Beto O’Rourke, and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker. The one thing which becomes fairly obvious is that should the Democrats take the White House, they are likely to take a vastly different approach toward Israel than Trump.


As we have stated, support for Israel is becoming a partisan issue with the Republicans supportive of Israel, for now, and the Democrats are sliding away from supporting Israel and pressing that the United States apply pressure upon Israel to force them back to the pre Six Day War boundaries, simply put, the 1949 armistice lines which would be granting the Arab world a complete do-over of the Six Day War. They press for Israel to be cut back to having her center varying between nine to fifteen miles. This would also provide the Arabs with positions along the Judean Hills, how are Judean Hills not Jewish, such that they will be able to actually watch their rockets as they would launch on Tel Aviv, Netanya, Herzliya and a large amount of Israeli population, businesses, utilities, nuclear power plants, naval ports all within close range from the areas of Judea and Samaria which many of these candidates have stated they would allow them to be gifted to the Arabs. We have included a map which displays the range and capability of the Katusha rocket, the smallest of the rockets which the Palestinian Authority has in their inventories. This is the problem with forcing Israel to return to the Green Line and set the borders back to what existed before the Six Day War. Such a plan would gift the Arabs with a complete do over in initiating a new Six Day War, something which could allow much of Israel to face destruction from the Arab armies and terrorists.


Katyusha Rocket Range by Mark Langfan Depicting the Near Complete Coverage of the Heart of Israel by Even the Smallest Home-made Rockets Both Hamas and Fatah Are Capable of Producing in Bulk

Katyusha Rocket Range by Mark Langfan
Depicting the Near Complete Coverage
of the Heart of Israel by Even the Smallest
Home-made Rockets Both Hamas and Fatah
Are Capable of Producing in Bulk


This will be something which will require Israel to start to take her own future into her own hands as the United States may be pulling her support whenever the Democrats take the White House. Should they also take the Congress, whether in 2020 or in 2024 after President Trump cannot run again, Israel could find herself deserted on the battlefield. Just as in Britain it is extremely probable that Jeremy Corbyn will become the next Prime Minister with a coalition which would probably oppose anything favorable for Israel. Add in the actions by the European Union which we reported here working to dismantle the Israeli settlements and granting the Arabs with all the lands which they had occupied between the 1948 attempted annihilation of Israel and her Jews in 1948 until 1967 when Israel liberated her stolen lands which the world has attempted to return to the Palestinian Arabs simply to deny the Jews the lands. The time has come to simply have Israel retain the lands which were promised her from the San Remo Conference, the Mandate System, Article 80 of the United Nations Charter which all referred to the Jordan River as the Israeli eastern border. These are the difficulties that Israel faces day after day as the world continues to try and strip Israel of any hope for her survival. In time, Israel needs to simply take the lands which she was promised and simply take all which she requires seeking the best results she is able to make such that Israel takes the measure of the situation and refreshes the demands such that she combines her necessities and follows the regular treaties which Israel has reached. The treaties and other agreements have brought much of the lands which are part of Israel back to the Jewish State with the European Union now working to relegate the lands to the Arabs leaving the Jews watching as they make claims which deny Israel any final lands. This is the situation that Israel finds herself as she starts to find a solution which allows her to reach space and settle down in a stretch of lands within the lands west of the Jordan River.


Beyond the Cusp


July 12, 2019

Elizabeth Warren Sounding Warning for the Future of Israel


From amongst the leading contenders for the Democrat candidacy to run for President in 2020 is Elizabeth Warren. Recently she was approached by one of the sad plethora of anti-Israel young American Jews about her stand and whether she plans to force the Israeli government to surrender the “occupied Palestinian (Arab) lands” should she win and enter the White House. The conversation went as below:

Becca Lubow, a student and a member of the IfNotNow Jewish anti-occupation movement approached Ms. Warren with their exchange,
“Hi, we are American Jews and we really love the way that you are fighting corruption and we would really love it if you also push the Israeli government to end the occupation,” Lubow said.
“Yes, yes,” Warren said.
“Excellent,” Lubow said.
“So, I’m there,” Warren said.

The encounter was captured in a video that IfNotNow soon posted on social media and can be viewed at the link given above. Bernie Sanders, another of the leading contenders for the Democrat candidacy and a Jew, by birth only, has also stated his support for the Palestinian Arab cause and stated his opposition to the Netanyahu government, something which appears as it will continue for the next three to four years after the September election. Other than Joe Biden, the rest of the Democrat candidates mostly take an anti-Israel position and many would do everything they were able to end all United States aid to Israel. This is something we have stated before as the main thing which we see as frightening. Allow us to explain.


We have absolutely no doubt that losing the aid provided by the United States once would have sounded a death knell for Israel. That is no longer the reality as we will show using the graphs below. The top graph shows Israeli GDP while the bottom graph shows United States aid to Israel. The United States aid began in the early 1970’s and by the 1980’s reached approximately three billion dollars and leveled out at this level from there forward. When this aid originally reached this three-billion-dollar rate it was between ten to twenty percent of Israeli GDP and as such was a significant percentage making it vital to Israel. Israeli GDP has increase steadily since the late 1980’s and in its own way never looked back. Currently that three-billion-dollars of United States aid makes up in the one-percent range against current Israeli GDP. Israel should present President Trump with a three-billion-dollar present and simply decrease the amount of United States aid to the maintenance promised for the new F-35 JSF being incorporated into the Israeli Air Force and a sliding scale as Israel takes over production of her own military needs. This United States aid was initiated when the United States basically bribed Israel with F-15’s and F-16’s in exchange Israel would not pursue production of the Lavi fighter jet which would have been a direct competitor on the international market for the F-16. This was a deal by which the United States gained sales of her own fighters without Israeli competition. With the United States preparing to provide Egypt and Saudi Arabia with F-35 JSF the promise of air superiority has now been broken and thus Israel should plan on producing from scratch her own sixth generation fighter. Once the new Israel fighter is produced, which would likely take a decade, Israel would no longer be dependent upon the United States for her air defense fighters. This three-billion-dollars of United States aid could be utilized by the United States and no longer be a drain on the over-bloated United States budget. But there are more reasons why this is becoming a necessity for Israel.


Israeli GDP Billions $

Israeli GDP Billions $



United States Israel Aid (Military)

United States Israel Aid (Military)


Israel should also begin to produce every weapon used by the IDF. This includes the weapons, bullets, artillery, aircraft, and these could join the Merkava Tanks as proudly produced Israeli defensive weapons, which unfortunately have a habit of appearing to be identical to offensive weaponry. These weapons are only exactly what they are utilized in the military and this decides whether or not they are offensive or defensive. Israel has yet to instigate a war and all her wars have been in response to attacks by her neighbors or by terrorist organizations. This is why Israeli weapons are of a defensive nature. When reading about the wonder weapons which Israel has developed, the mainstay have been interceptor missiles such as Arrow 1, 2, and 3; Iron Dome and David’s Sling, all interceptors of rockets, missiles, ballistic missiles, mortars and other weapons used to try and destroy Israel. The main Israeli activity has been the new barrier being installed around Gaza which is being driven meters underground to prevent tunneling as well as above ground having a strong and reinforced fence which will be resistant to the attempts to destroy the current border barriers which are proving inadequate. In northern Israel a similar border barrier is being considered in order to prevent further tunnel activity by Hezballah in Lebanon. The IDF has also developed a means of detecting these tunnels to a significant depth which has already found dozens of tunnels out of Gaza and Lebanon. There are more advance interceptors being designed and tested which are kept as secretive as proves possible. There have been rumors of laser interceptor to augment the Iron Dome and could possibly be adapted for use against ballistic missiles. But we are not here to guess what the future will bring as we would just as soon be pleasantly surprised and amazed when these systems come on-line and the world marvels with us.


The reason for Israel to become self-dependent for her military needs is something which could provide more than not being overly dependent upon foreign providers. Looking at the majority of what appears as the future of the Democrat Party and one sees a growing number of candidates, Representatives and Senators who are sporting anti-Israel positions. Their antagonism against Israel almost comes seething from their lips. The vast percentage of the current Democrat Presidential candidates are pro-Palestinian Arab and only mouth support for Israel before specific audiences. It should act as a warning to Israel when all of the Democrat Presidential hopefuls refused to address AIPAC, the largest pro-Israel Jewish organization. They also refused to appear at the CUNI convention which is the leading Christian pro-Israel organization. Add to this the seeming constant flow of quotes and Tweets coming from a select group of freshman Congress-critters, namely Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. We would like to believe that these young representatives were not an indication of the future, but that would be attempting to blind ourselves to reality. Supporting Israel, one of the longest running nonpartisan politics but is becoming a partisan political issue with the Republicans supporting Israel and the Democrats attempting to force Israel into committing acts which would challenge her continued existence.


We realize that President Trump is a controversial President if the media is any indication. In Israel he divides people as well but the main area where this divide exists is from the Americans who have recently made Aliyah and who still identify with their United States party affiliations. The vast majority of Israelis are favorable in their views of President Trump as he has been good for Israel. We are also very aware that President Trump may only have a mere year and a half in office if he is defeated in 2020 or five and half years should he win in 2020. Either way, Israel must prepare for the United States post President Trump. It is even difficult to predict who or where the Republicans will find their candidate for 2024. There is but a slight chance that the Republican will win the 2024 Presidential race and even should they win, the odds of their continuing post 2028 are remote if electoral history is any indicator. The United States rarely keeps the same party in the White House for over twelve years in a row in recent times. This means that Israel will be facing potentially an anti-Israel President within the next decade. This is an eventuality which Israel had best be prepared to survive. The Israeli government and particularly its leadership must face facts that counting on the United States to be a close ally and provider of military hardware is approaching its use-by-date after which things could become very dicey.


The problem is that this partnership where Israeli technical aid working with the United States on weapons development and then dependent upon the United States for production of these self-same weapons systems is about to come to an abrupt halt. This will not be a slow estrangement where events will unfold slowly over a decade or more. This will be much closer to having the United States as a close ally on January 19th and then the next day a new President is sworn in and on January 20th Israel will find they no longer have a close ally in the United States. When this happens, all aid from the United States will either completely dry up within a year or will start to come with demands that Israel withdraw from lands presenting them to the Palestinian Arabs to govern themselves. We have already witnessed what this entails. We have one example in Gaza where they would just as soon burn Israel completely to the ground because they love the land so very much. Then with the Palestinian Authority we have Mahmoud Abbas explaining that if he had only one shekel, he would use it to pay one of the terrorists who has murdered Jews. He just as often says Jews as he does Israelis as to him, they are the same. Abbas is so invested in his investing in terrorism and the murder of Israelis, preferably Jews, which comes before paying the workers because the number one occupation is terrorism as far as the ruling elites care. What kind of threat the Palestinian Arabs can pose if they were to become provided for by the United States is something frightening and for which Israel had best have a plan in the works.


Finally, there is another side to this which Israel also need consider. Designing and producing a fighter jet and other support aircraft and air-frames along with all the other requirements for the IDF including weapons and bullets and every other weapons system would provide thousands of higher than average paying jobs. Further, these kinds of production could be placed in the Negev and used to build entire cities around these production facilities providing more jobs and new metropolitan regions for the future growth of Israel. We would like to envision Israel building a spaceport from which Israel and other nations who wish to launch satellites can use which could provide Israel with new friends and benefit her older friends as well. This spaceport could be the central hub for these industries plus Israel could develop systems which are capable of placing satellites in orbit and even emulate another Israeli, Elon Musk, and also develop boosters and even second stages which land back on earth for repeated use. The time has come for Israel to become completely, or as much as she is capable of performing, dependent upon only her own talents and production facilities. Israel could build an entire new passenger airline frame along with her military air-frames and develop the most efficient engines and avionics breaking into this multi-trillion-dollar international market. Once Israel incorporates her economy with an outward look as to how her resources and brain-trusts can best be invested and utilized in order to make Israel a vital nation to the world as a whole, the faster many of the groups fighting her will fail and Israel will have some peace. This is what a spaceport, passenger aircraft production, her own lines of military hardware and a multitude of other vital production businesses such that Israel becomes an asset to all instead of a target for hatred and spite. And, as we stated, the Negev just begs for a spaceport to be built in its center and to use as a hub for a futuristic region.


Israel Space Port Launch Facility

Israel Space Port Launch Facility


Instead, many Israelis are of the notion that the United States will always be there as our friend and staunch ally. We would like to remind them that early in the nation’s history the United States was neutral at best and a hindrance too often and has not been our ally and military partner for the first thirty-five years of our history. Israel used to fly French Mirage interceptors which. though designed as a bomber interceptor to be used should the USSR invade Europe, Israel made do using it as their first line fighter aircraft. This was part of the reason why Israel was developing the Lavi fighter. For those stuck on the United States as providing Israel with aircraft out of any purely altruistic means need to remember that Israel had to forgo producing fighters while this arrangement lasts and this denied Israelis with thousands of jobs and the country with an even healthier GDP. Israelis need to come to grips with the unfortunate fact that the United States is going to become estranged in the not too distant future and guaranteed earlier than Israel will be prepared if certain steps are not taken and taken immediately. Some truths are difficult for people to get their arms around as they have this comfort level of which any new idea which pulls the rug out from under their understanding is met with disbelief. Such disbelief always leads to facing a crisis which should have been foreseen and planned for. One such belief is that the United States will always be there, a belief which will inevitably become false and lead to great panic if not prepared for now rather than waiting to be blindsided. There really is nothing else to add beyond the old set of the six “P’s” which means, Prior Planning Prevents Poor Panicky Performance.


Beyond the Cusp


June 10, 2019

Will Anyone Wake-up to Iran?


We are not speaking of their bellicose threats to close the Straits of Hormuz or blowing the American fleet out of the Persian Gulf or any of their various threats targeting Israel and the Jews in general. We are not referencing their actions against the Kurds and Sunni of Iraq or their war in Syria or the arming of Hezballah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Nor is it the threats they use targeting Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. What we are alluding to is their nuclear program and their preparing to ramp up their production of enriched uranium. There are probably numerous reasons for their preparations beyond simply readying for the eight to ten years to elapse before they are to be permitted to manufacture all the nuclear weapons both in numbers and varieties under the specification of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). As to exactly when the Iranians are to be free to pursue nuclear weapons under the JCPOA is a difficult date to perceive as it appears that each nation and organization which partook of the talks ended up with their own copy and no two copies were even near identical. The strictest of the disparate copies belonged to President Obama who proudly claimed a great victory. The next strictest copy appears to have gone to the European representatives with theirs all being largely the same. Then the Russian and Chinese got copies which very few have ever bothered to peek inside to see what they received and Iran has its own copy which they hold close to their chest preventing anyone from seeing that copy. Needless to say, each copy apparently was tailored to satisfy the recipients, which makes for some serious questions when it comes to what Iran believes the treaty stated and what everyone else thinks. The wording and different interpretations of the JCPOA have left the world without any real idea as to what was actually agreed upon or whether everybody was permitted to leave the table believing whatever they desired most. Europe got to trade openly with Iran, Russia and China were going to do whatever they desired anyways and the United States was given a copy which permitted the President to declare a great victory. Even with the copy that President Obama touted was no great achievement as its major restrictions on Iran preventing their becoming a nuclear power had a time limit of anywhere from eight to twelve years depending on your source, as we recall hearing these unequal numbers of years before Iran was cut loose from all restrictions.


So, this is where we stand. According to channel 13 News in Israel, “Israeli intelligence has identified a huge acceleration in Iran’s preparations for the resumption of uranium enrichment.” Assuming that the Iranian copy of the treaty had the mere eight years limiting their production of nuclear weapons, it very likely would have permitted preparations to begin somewhat sooner. Further, Iran, specifically the Supreme Leader and others who actually have power and rule Iran never really accepted the deal as having anywhere near as strict a regimen as was implied by President Obama plus they believe that perhaps they no longer need to abide by all of the deal as the United States officially voided their participation. This latest revelation by Israeli intelligence was likely announced in part to provide President Trump with information which he may or may not have received from the CIA and other American intelligence sources. We can fully expect that the Europeans could not care less what Iran does in regards to nuclear weapons as long as they are making money and trading freely. That has been their apparent interest in Iran which they doubled down upon by establishing means by which their trade with Iran could continue while getting around the sanctions placed on Iranian companies, banks and oil sales. Russia and China will continue with their own approaches and dealings with Iran also with little if any regard to the American sanctions. By all actions taken into consideration, the nations which appear to be most concerned over the Iranian nuclear program are the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Egypt. Interestingly, this list also very closely resembles the nations which have been most threatened by Iran, which likely explains their concerns.


Now to go a little further and investigate possibilities. What is often ignored was the original agreement made between Iran with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (the EU 3). When Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected as the Iranian President in August of 2005, he referred to the negotiators as treasonous and negated Iranian participation in this treaty. This led to all kinds of diplomatic attempts and other means of forcing Iran to meet their obligations all to no avail. Sanctions did not force any result until after Ahmadinejad had left office and only then was Iran willing to restart negotiations which included the P5+1 and Iran. This eventually led to the JCPOA. What we find to be an oversight is even if Iran had not developed nuclear weapons before their agreement with the EU 3, in the years when Ahmadinejad was President Iran very likely was going with great haste and high expectations to manufacture as many nuclear weapons as their equipment would permit. Even if they had not manufactured a single nuclear weapon before Ahmadinejad, they definitely had the time to enrich sufficient uranium, import the special metals, capacitors and timing flash circuits to produce any variety of nuclear weapon they desired. But allow us to simplify everything and simply point to the diagram below taken off of the web. The design is far from a top-secret plan kept hidden away in some remote government vault as are the designs of more powerful atomic fission bombs. Even though designs are also found for thermonuclear devices, these are far more difficult to produce and do take a great deal of time and manufacturing. The gun type bomb was so sure in the design that the United States never tested one before its usage on Japan. The main difficulty in such a device is the enriched uranium, which was merely seventy percent Uranium 235, and the machining of the plug and target, both made of uranium, such that their fit would produce a rapid enough chain reaction to create the desired explosion. Apparently, the scientists on the Manhattan Project were very sure of their designs and the quality of their machinists. So, those who wish to claim that Iran would have difficulty in even designing a nuclear device are fooling themselves and those who believe them.


Little Boy Gun Type Atomic Bomb


The next thing is to believe that Iran was incapable of producing sufficient fissile material to produce such a device. The problem here is they would only require enrichment to a lower extent than for the more complex devices, especially a hydrogen bomb. Iran has had the capability of enrichment to seventy percent or thereabouts since they first developed or bought centrifuges, granted they had to be advanced centrifuges, and began enriching uranium as fuel for their nuclear reactors. Well, that was their reason given for such a need despite being supplied with fissile material by Russia. It is even possible that Iran refined some of the Russian provided fuel as their secrecy has made any verification next to impossible. Further, what do people think Iran was doing during the eight years while Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was President of Iran and obsessed with obtaining nuclear weapons, in his case the biggest and most destructive kind possible, but at least some made to the specifications above if he could not have something superior. For any who doubt our reasoning and validity of information, below is a picture of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visiting an enrichment plant with fairly advanced centrifuges easily capable of enriching uranium to the level required for production of a simple nuclear device. These centrifuges were spinning as fast and to as full a capacity as was possible for the entirety of the eight years he was in office and for how long after is anybody’s guess. Apparently, the Iranians are preparing to wind-up their more advanced centrifuges for full production in the not too distant future, which can mean only one thing, they are preparing to produce additional weapons.



We hear a few gasps asking why we would claim they are going to make additional weapons; don’t you mean start making weapons. Ahmadinejad, during his eight years as president, had an opportunity to produce very likely dozens if not far more bombs of the gun type and possibly a number of fusion bombs, thermonuclear devices. The reason for the hesitation on declaring his ability to produce many such weapons is due to the difficulty in obtaining or producing the required isotopes of hydrogen and other elements required for such a device. The next question would be about their having sufficient uranium, specifically as yellowcake, Iran has three uranium mines at Saghand, Yazd and Gachin (see map below), and has scientists capable of producing the necessary yellowcake from the ore. Further, there are other nations who gladly trade yellowcake for raw uranium ore as it is just another means of doing business the old barter style method. Many of Iran’s nuclear scientists were educated and worked in the United States and across Europe receiving a top rate education which they have employed upon returning to Iran. Iran is not as backwards a nation as many have been led to believe and has a very educated population. Iranian literacy rates are over eighty-percent of the population being literate. Their higher education has two tracks, one Quranic and the other emphasizes sciences. Their education system is more than up to the task of producing the engineers and scientists required by Iran for any purpose they might desire. So, believing that Iran has not manufactured nuclear devices is pure folly and quite dangerous.


Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines


Additionally, some of the Iranian leadership, specifically military leadership, have made references to Israel being a two-bomb nation and their ability to take out the entirety of the United States aircraft carrier fleets in the Persian Gulf with a single bomb. Both of these threats imply some form of nuclear device or extremely advanced EMP devices. The references to Israel have included referencing using nuclear weapons, a threat they would never make without the ability to follow through with their threat. Further, the world has witnessed their progress with ballistic missiles plus their having launched satellites into low Earth orbits. Many of these launches have utilized a north to south orbit taking them over the poles. This is of interest as this orbit has also been practiced by North Korea and is a known Soviet and Chinese orbit of interest as it can be utilized to approach the United States from their southern approach which is presumed to be a weakness in the United States anti-missile defenses. Iran has known ballistic missiles which can reach as far as at least four-thousand kilometers and very likely they are in possession of ICBMs capable of striking anywhere on the planet according to the Brookings Institution (see images below). What becomes quite obvious from a glance at their missiles is that much of the world, if not all of the world, is easily within their range. Now add that for many of their missiles with ranges up to two thousand kilometers (and potentially four thousand kilometers) they have systems by which they can be carried and fired from freighter container ships from anywhere in the world, and these ships make near perfect disguises making tracking them somewhat of a challenge.


Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges


So Iran has the necessary missiles and technologies for striking anywhere on Earth and has had more than sufficient time, energy, abilities and desires to build quite a few nuclear devices which minimally would produce twenty to fifty kilotons, that is from slightly more powerful than the bombs dropped on Japan near the end of World War II to as much as three times as powerful. This is excluding their having produced thermonuclear devices whose yields start at fifty kilotons to as high as fifty-megatons of TNT, the most powerful such weapon tested, though it is thought that yields could reach one-hundred megatons with a simple modification. We would suspect that Iran would probably have thermonuclear devices, relatively few in number, reaching yields of ten to twenty megatons at best and that they would have no more than one dozen such weapons. All this which deals with the Iranian nuclear stockpiles has been conjecture on our part as we do not possess any ability for intelligence gathering and have made much of our conjectures based on algorithms and the use of extrapolation combined with our own derived set of expectations of Iranian abilities and other evidence we have observed laced throughout the news of the last few decades. We hope that we have overestimated the abilities of the Iranian scientists but fear we may have been too conservative in our estimates.


Beyond the Cusp


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