Beyond the Cusp

April 14, 2020

Israeli Political Stalemate Strikes Again

 

 

When nothing has changed between now and whenever President Rivlin finally surrenders to reality, these are our observations and thoughts. Should everything remain as it appears, Israel will be going to a fourth set of elections. It appears that yet another election will likely leave things the same without anyone able to form a coalition numbering sixty-one or more Knesset Ministers. These past three elections fit neatly into the Einsteinian definition for insanity, performing the same tasks expecting different results.

 

We here at BTC are going to go out on a limb and predict a winning side; but first, our reasoning behind the change we see coming. Former Blue-White leader, Benny Gantz, performed the political pirouette going back on any number of his former promises. There is one main U-turn which will damage him and lose him followers. This U-turn came when General Gantz (ret) attempted to form a government by allying with the Arab List. Even with this attempted new alliance, Gantz ended up unable to reach the magic sixty-one majority. This attempt also blew apart the Blue-White alliance leaving the former alliance torn asunder back into the component parties. This breakup comes at the same time as Labor and Meretz ended their alliance as well. Meanwhile, the parties making up the right-leaning alliance are well as in tact for as long as Bibi Netanyahu honors the promises made to them and not take away their ministries so as to bribe left-leaning parties to join the coalition. Breaking these promises would be the quickest means for destroying the right-leaning alliance.

 

We at BTC are actually looking forward to a new round of elections. These elections, we believe, will be held sometime in either August or September. The reason for holding the new elections that late is for any number of reasons including an end to the COVID-19 pandemic allowing people to feel safer being in groups and still allow for some time for campaigning. Granted, the vast majority of Israelis are set in their voting choices. So, what changes have we noted, despite the difficulties caused by the pandemic? The most obvious has been the breaking apart of the main left-leaning party, Blue-White, and another leftist alliance where one of the members is unlikely to break threshold. Of course, there is always the chance for any slip to come along and change everything.

 

Bronze Star of David

 

Well, guess the time has come to predict the results of any fourth Israeli elections. Top of the list will be Bibi Netanyahu yet again with sixty-two to as many a sixty-five mandates. The Arab List will remain between fourteen and seventeen mandates leaving less than a mere fifty mandates, falling completely from contention. Hopefully, Bibi can get past his paranoia suspecting that others are trying to replace the leadership of Likud into the future. While having Netanyahu returning one more time as Prime Minister may not be the most desirable, one last tour to collect more cigars and champagne and getting even deeper in trouble with the media; after Gantz’s recent self-destruction, there really is no other choice.

 

Taking the nearly identical results from the previous elections, the fourth elections will be predicted to simply be yet another repeat, yet we believe it could easily be the charm. What we advise Bibi Netanyahu, or any other right-leaning leader, to do is better Israel politically and place her beyond physical threat. The first effort should lead to completely annex all lands west of the Jordan River while providing any Palestinians desiring to leave with aid to assist their relocation. As for the remainder of time to the next elections, it would serve Likud and the right-leaning political wing to replace Bibi at the helm and promote a new leadership. Meanwhile, Israeli politics will remain one of the most absurd and delusional found on this Earth.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 17, 2018

Netanyahu Success in Revealing Establishment Europe

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu returned from his European trip with a few nice souvenirs from the gift shop, a hefty trip ticket, receipts, a few renewed memories and little else. His intended trip to Gay Paris, Merry olde London town and unified Berlin was to attempt to pry these leaders into joining United States President Trump by pulling their support from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This was going to be a tough sell as these nations are enriching their otherwise sagging economic outlook with what they believe will be substantial economic trade with Iran. Tiny little Israel, despite the fact of her economy being far greater than her size, does not have the purchasing power presently coming from Iran. The problem is that some of these trade items come under dual use equipment as they are utilized in the nuclear industry as well as in medical and other industries. Special blends of steel and aluminum, magnets and capacitors, strobes and filaments, microprocessors and integrated electronics can be used in various industries such as medical lasers, X-ray machines, MRIs and all forms of special equipment used across numerous industries as well as used in the nuclear industry for everything from reactors for power to nuclear warheads for power projection. This is what makes many forms of trade with Iran so potentially precarious.

 

The promise of good relations and a new market was the sole concern for the three M’s, Merkel, Macron and May. The rulers of France, Germany and Britain gave Netanyahu a warm and fuzzy cold shoulder. They refused to advise any changes to the JCPOA and definitely refused to withdraw from the agreement. Their claim was that their nations had given their word in good faith and to break their word was unthinkable. Really? Telling Israel that France, Germany and Britain were seriously concerned about their word being their bond was brazen audacity. We would try to count the times and ways that these three nations have reneged on promises to Israel and to the Jewish People but doubt such is really necessary. But Prime Minister Netanyahu should have known this before leaving which leaves one wondering why he even bothered to try other than to placate the left and be able to at least claim he gave it an effort. The trip may have been to inoculate himself from just another pointless politically motivated attack for pushing Europe away when, according to the critics, the European acceptance is necessary if Israel expects to have a future. Well, that is a nice concept providing you are backwards looking. The truth is that the future for Israel economically, politically, and societally is not looking to Europe and the past but to the future and upcoming nations such as India, China and the working democratic, free-enterprise nations in Africa and South America. But when there are those seeking to attack you, they will blame Netanyahu for the rejection by France, Germany and Britain but had he not approached them he would have been criticized for not going. It is the old you can fail by trying or fail by not trying, either way your failure will be attacked.

 

Israel Willingly Reaching Out to the World

Israel Willingly Reaching Out to the World

 

The reality is that politically France, Germany and Britain wish Israel, and by Israel the Jewish People, would simply be overrun and removed from their consciences. They blame the Jews for surviving the persecution heaped upon them by Christians and the Greeks and Romans before Nazi Germany almost succeeded in Europe. These leaders will make nice statements and even provide security after each attack, but they believe that their future is to adapt and make their Islamic immigrants become good Europeans. The more likely result will be the Europeans with become nice Dhimmis in an Islamic centric society likely within the first half of this century or by the end at the longest. Imagine Britain under Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, France under Union for a Popular Movement leader Jean-François Copé or Germany under Alliance 90/The Greens Party leader Annalena Baerbock, all heavily pro-immigrant parties and candidates who see the future of Europe as reaching a working alliance with a large percentage of Muslim immigrants welcomed into the nation to replace the numbers of youth not being birthed by native Europeans. Germany (below 1.5 children per woman), France (hovering around 2.0 children per woman) and Britain (approximately 1.9 children per woman) all have reproductive rates below the 2.2 children per woman required to simply have replacement rate. This has been the plaguing problem, with the only reason that these rates are increasing is due to the high birth rates by incoming immigrants, thus since the early 1970’s Europe has been looking at a disappearing native population. This changing demographic has brought on a backlash of anti-immigrant political demographic which has been latched onto by the far right parties. The futures of the nations of Western Europe are being wagered on building their new nation largely upon immigrant populations. This will take them politically further and further from Israel politically and in policy. Israel need accept this reality and come to the realization that though Europe provides markets in the here and now, the future will not be in Europe, at least not in Western Europe. Israel would be better served to work with the former Warsaw Pact nations, assisting them in modernization and build relations with that sphere.

 

Israel has much to offer any nation in developments and new discoveries. These will produce trade relations with every nation willing to trade. As for political alliances, Israel should not be the beggar but rather offer free trade with those nations which whom we can have strong political relations and a shared political outlook. Israel should build relations with nations who are willing to be cooperative and not constantly joining those in the United Nations General Assembly and other institutions of the United Nations condemning Israel in a near constant basis. Israel should announce that her trade barriers would be lowered for those who support Israel and would be raised on those who choose not to defend Israel from undue slanders and denunciations within world bodies. Israel need stop going from nation to nation with their hands out begging for favors. Israel need simply take care of Israel and deal with favor with those who decide they wish to join Israel into the future. Those who desire or act to the detriment of Israel, well, who needs those who show Israel no favor. Every nation has the right to deal with those who befriend them and to avoid interactions with those who do not. Israel, as most nations will do, should trade with those willing to trade unless a nation is amongst those who denounce Israel at every turn. Israel need go forward by building alliances with nations willing to stand with Israel and move slowly but surely away from any which repeatedly join in denouncing Israel. Israel should not expect any nation to bend or act against their economic future to please Israel but on the other hand, Israel need not assist those nations who choose to work with those who threaten Israel as nations we cannot count amongst our allies. Israel should work with allies made and leave the others as neutral unless they prove otherwise, and then they should be shunned.

 

Israel cannot expect anybody to respect Israel more than Israel does herself. This is another lesson which the political class need learn and learn fast. If Israel acts as if she is unsure of what is rightfully hers, then how can Israel expect others to be more assured of such than is she? That is illogical at the start. The initial step in this strengthening of Israel and her stand within the community of nations is to act with assured firmness. Step one is to annex all of Area C from the Oslo Accords in which Area C was left under total Israeli control. The existing Palestinian Arabs who are residing within Area C are doing so illegally under the Oslo Accords. They should be required to sign a non-belligerence agreement signifying that they hold no support for terrorism and no ill will towards Israel and accept residing under Israeli Law. In exchange, they will be permitted to remain as legal alien residents. Those who refuse should be offered reasonable remuneration for their property and allowed to move into Area A or Area B. Once the screaming has dimmed to a dull roar, Israel should invite Mahmoud Abbas to sit down a make peace or lose Area B. We expect that he would balk and instead run immediately to the European Union and United Nations and get as many denunciations of Israel for seeking such a meeting under dire threat. Following such a response by political attack and attempted political ostracization, Israel should simply annex Area B and offer the Palestinian Arabs residing there the same option as those from Area C. Finally, the same procedure should be exercised with Area A, the world should expect the same result, and in the end, we could send Mahmoud Abbas to live in Paris with as many of the leadership as possible with the rest being allowed to leave for whichever Muslim nations will have them. Once Israel has established her eastern border as the firmly and originally promised Jordan River, she can move forward acting as if the world has finally come to grips with its original promises. Yes, there will be a period of adjustment and France, Germany and Britain will be generally put out, but sometimes nations need to do what they need to do. Israel does not exist to make the French, German or British people and governments happy, she exists to be the Jewish State and take whatever steps are necessary for her own future and survival. The façade of a peace process has gone on long enough and it is time to settle things and bring it all to an end. The proper end would be and should be that Israel is entitled to every inch of the lands promised her by the Mandate, by the League of Nations, by the Allied Powers of World War I (it is a very old promise) and by the United Nations who promised as much in Article 80 of their Charter. That is the reality and there really should be little if any argument about this. The Europeans and their World War I allies are aware of the promises, as is the Arab League and every Arab and Muslim nation. It is inscribed indelibly in the San Remo Conference, Treaty of Sèvres, the Mandate Agreements and numerous other places, thus ignorance really has to be willingly adopted. The time has long passed for the grievance mongers to be rejected and sent upon their way into the dustbin of history and Israel to take her place as a nation without question. Those who wish to recognize her may and those with problems may have their problems, these problematic countries should not act as an excuse to deny Israel her rightful boundaries. There were promises, an Arab state was already carved from 78% of the British Mandate, and there is no agreement that a second Arab state followed by a third and a fourth until all the Jews reside in a single building in Tel Aviv is required. The time has come to end the ruse and reveal it for what it is, the dream of politicians around the world to step-by-step disassemble the Jewish State and bring the life of the Jewish People to an end where they become a scattered few who live at the kindness of others. Never Again! That phrase should become the negotiating slogan as Israel takes that which is hers and makes it final. Never Again means that we will take the interlopers injecting their politics to Israeli detriment no longer. That time has arrived and it will not take much longer before Israeli politics catch up and this becomes a reality. Prepare for this and prepare your politics for this as the end of the ruse is coming.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

September 22, 2017

Did the Republicans Out Maneuver the Republicans?

 

President Trump made a miscalculation at the beginning of his term which he is unlikely to make again. He believed that as he had won the Presidency that he was now the leader of the Republican Party. He assumed that the Republican Party was very similar to the Democrat Party which he knew rather well having seen them operate for many of his years. He believed that the Republicans would be assisting him with his agenda. He now knows that his assumption was not quite valid. There were Republicans who believed that they had the right to control the Republican Party and that they were going to force President Trump to allow them to control the agenda no matter what it took. Their first stand was over repeal and replace of Obamacare where they prevented all three proposals from passing and brought President Trump to his realization that there was a sufficiently sizeable group of Republicans who did not care about the good for the American people, they cared solely about their power and control. They would sacrifice the Republican Party from holding the White House if it meant they could impose that they were the real powerful members of the Republican Party. They had everything figured out, they would hold the promises made by candidate Trump hostage until President Trump submitted to their control. Then they would dictate policy as they were meant to do. One felt particularly cheated because he should have been the Republican in the White House the past eight years but he was robbed by President Obama. Then they threatened to foil President Trump’s tax reform plans unless he allowed them to take charge and do what was the right thing to do. These rebelling Republicans were a motely group of very liberal Republicans plus a few very angry Republicans who despised that this upstart who has never held any elected office or paid his dues to the Republican Party was now the President and leader of their party, that is their party. They were not going to bow before this upstart and he was going to bow to them and they would finally dictate and make things right, make them how they had always believed they should be, finally achieve those things they knew were necessary.

 

President Trump is a different kind of politician, a business politician who believes in making deals as necessary. When he realized that because of this small band of aggravated Republicans who were bent on refusing him any victory, President Trump did the only thing which makes any business sense, he went to work with the Democrats. He offered the Democrats hope for a deal but first they had to prove they could produce the votes by giving him something he badly needed, raising the debt limit. The Democrats gave President Trump his debt ceiling increase and the will to achieve more things which they hold in common. There are Republicans who have accused and thought that President Trump would be right at home amongst the Democrats. Now there will be howls from the Republicans about President Trump joining with the Democrats and deserting the Republican Party. The discussion will be interesting between the Republicans and President Trump as each one accuses the other of betrayal. Which one honestly betrayed the other will depend upon one’s own views and probably which side your political bread is buttered. It might even just come down to which of the two main characters in this grand opera you believe is the better person, President Trump or Senator McCain. What comes next will prove to be telling and it will depend heavily on whether President Trump actually cares about working with the Republicans or now feels he has new friends he can depend upon.

 

Senator McCain versus President Trump

Senator McCain versus President Trump

 

The one thing, which we can tell President Trump, is that the Democrats suffer from an ideological block that only permits them to serve their own purposes. Then President Trump also needs to know that those renegade Republicans who appeared to hate his becoming President with so much passion that they refused to do things even that they had promised for the last seven years to their own constituents are just as untrustworthy. But it is very likely that the President already has this game figured and will work with whomever wishes to play ball with him and assist him in getting certain ideas pushed through to fruition. This may mean working with the Democrats on Tuesdays and Thursdays and working with the Republican on Mondays and Fridays and working with a combination made up from both parties who are simply interested in advancing what is best for the people of the United States on Wednesdays. In such a scenario, we predict that Wednesdays would be outstandingly productive. But the real question is what is the immediate path the President might try as neither party has a proven record or appears completely committed to his ideas and programs.

 

President Trump is going to need to prove that he really can perform the art of the deal. The question will be with whom he will be dealing. President Trump will most likely move to have the Republicans take a shot at passing his tax reform plan, something they will probably demand not be as deep a cut or that so many of the loopholes and deductions be removed. The Democrats would be even more averse to working with President Trump on any form of tax reduction unless he would agree to raising other taxes or enacting Single Payer Healthcare, otherwise known as Medicare for All. The Democrats have always been the deal makers where their half of the deal always has to be enacted first and too often their agreement to enact more later often does not come to fruition. At least that has been the record in their past, especially when it comes to amnesty for illegal aliens (undocumented immigrants) and closure of the border to prevent additional illegal aliens (undocumented immigrants). Fortunately, the President’s next major fight will be tax reduction and reform. This would be an area better suited to working with the Republican Party. That would be a good starting point for President Trump if that is his next venture, but he should also enlist any willing Democrat assistance available just in case the Republican rebellion is still in vogue, then the tax program could still have a good opportunity for passage. Wherever President Trump’s agenda plans may be, he might be required to enlist the willing on each program from both parties in order to bring his campaign promises to fruition. The immediate problems facing President Trump is finding a coalition of the willing from both parties and proceed with the work at hand. To do anything less would be disrespectful of those who elected him to accomplish those items he promised during the campaign. The voters did not care who President Trump works with, they just wanted him to work on those items he promised. They do not even care if he believes in that which he promised, they just demand that he deliver or he will have only one term. Then again, after the way President Trump has been treated, he may not desire another term which makes him even more of a problem as then he has nothing to lose by doing whatever he feels is necessary. At least things will be interesting, and that is very good for those who write about politics.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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