Israel is doing all she is able in order to at least stall war with slim hopes of avoiding it all together. Israel has sent messages pleading with the Lebanese government to end the adaptation of the largest of the one-hundred-fifty-thousands of rockets into guided missiles with within ten-meter accuracy and some even tighter control. Iran has been shipping guidance packages which can be added to normal rockets turning them into guided missiles capable of targeting any Israeli site and be assured of striking them. Israel has made the upgrade of these rockets into guided missiles a red-line which must not be crossed as allowing such leaves Israel under a definitive threat. Needless to point out, but when one places a red line before any of the many Iranian functionaries, such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Houthis and Hezballah, Iran will push them past that red-line just to goad Israel by providing a threat level which cannot be permitted on her border. It is bad enough that Iran has stocked Hezballah with over one-hundred-fifty-thousands of rockets of varying sizes and ranges (see table below), but now Iran is providing guidance packages and advisors who taught Hezballah how to retrofit mere rockets making them into guided missiles which transforms the threat level beyond what Israel can permit. This message is being provided to be passed on to Lebanese government, specifically Lebanese Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri by French President Emmanuel Macron who was to deliver the Israeli warning. The choice is very simple and plainly put, either Lebanon prevents any further retooling of the Hezballah rocket inventory or Israel will break everything Hezballah is utilizing for this purpose and probably somewhat more. This would lay waste to large areas of Beirut as well as the surrounding countryside, the Bekaa Valley and most of the areas south of the Litani River.
According to United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, Hezballah was not to rearm, was to remove all offensive capabilities including manpower from south of the Litani River, abandon and destroy the tunnel and bunker network north of the Israeli border up to the Litani River and not engage Israel with a threat of her destruction. United Nations forces were to enforce these terms and should they fail, circumventing or contravening any of these stipulations was to be considered a casus belli instituting a state of war. Hezballah has ignored, transgressed and shredded every item in this treaty often using United Nations vehicles to transport rockets, munitions, terrorist fighters and support people almost everywhere south of the Litani River. Hezballah has not only repaired but expanded, extended and more fully integrated their tunnels, bunkers, rocket firing position and storage areas throughout the regions south of the Litani River. Hezballah has restocked and augmented their rockets with M-600’s, Zelzal-2 and Scud-D rockets approaching one-hundred-thousand of these longer range rockets as well as presumably incorporated the entire arsenal of the Lebanese Army at their command should they be required to engage with Israel. Israel has observed this build-up but drew a red-line in the sand that she would not tolerate guided missiles which could be made to strike any specific target within Israel potentially causing grievous harm to Israeli infrastructure and her people. This was why Israel had bombed a number of the recent attempts which were providing guided missiles to Hezballah from Iran. Now Iran has taken a different tactic, they have been providing Hezballah with special adapter kits consisting of guidance fins and a targeting system which refits unguided rockets transforming them into guided missiles capable of striking specific targets within Israel.
How does the addition of guidance packages to thousands of long-range rockets really change anything when the sheer numbers of Hezballah rockets meant that Israel could be virtually blanketed by rockets. The reality is while Hezballah has these many tens of thousands of larger rockets and could presumably blanket Israel from the north to the southern tip, by making them into guided missiles they can specifically target nuclear power stations in Haifa poisoning the entire area with a blanket of radiation, the Dimona Research Reactor, the skyscrapers in Tel Aviv, train terminals and any other infrastructure including the larger shelters where thousands of Israelis will have gathered to be safe from the rockets. Striking one of these larger shelters with four or five guided missiles one after the other would likely compromise the structure rendering it unsafe and potentially collapsing the structure killing many hundreds of civilians. Further, there will be a limited number of these larger rockets capable of being fired before Israel would strike the launch facilities including the mobile launchers preventing a second wave. Now that first wave of newly converted guided missiles would be capable of crippling Israeli infrastructure killing electrical power to much of the nation as well as destroying fuel reserves and other vital infrastructure. Additionally, Hezballah has been provided with a number of the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems (see image below). These are the identical units which Russia provided Bashir al-Assad with as a threat to Israeli air operations over Syria. These would require detection and destruction before the majority of Israel jet fighters would be safe flying over Lebanon, especially when making a strike run. The limited number of fifth generation F-35 aircraft would be required to make the first attacks on these systems as their stealth makes them less threatened by this system which uses radar guidance. These systems were a game changer providing Hezballah with advance anti-aircraft capabilities which is capable of intercepting the F-15’s and F-16’s or any other aircraft other than the F-35’s recently added to the Israeli Air Force.
The Hezballah threat which has continued to slowly but surely build its threat level to the point where permitting any further escalation would make Hezballah a definitive threat which Israel could no longer permit to choose the time of any confrontation. The safety of many Israelis depends on the IDF initiating any war with Hezballah should Hezballah initiate such a conflict and posses guidance package enhanced rockets which could be used to target Israeli military and civilian airfields. One could hope that Iron Dome and other interception systems would intercept a large majority, still even should 90% or more be intercepted out of one-thousand missiles, should the current escalation continue for another six months, such still leaves one-hundred missiles striking their targets. This would allow one-hundred rockets, missiles, mortars and other projectiles striking Israel for ever thousand rockets fired. This would mean that Hezballah currently could have fifteen-thousand rockets strike Israel. This is why the Israeli Air Force must be capable of taking out the vast majority of everything from the smallest rockets to the largest guided missiles. International Law permits nations instigating acts of war against any force across any border which is preparing to have and deliver destruction which is beyond the ability of the nation to absorb and survive. For a country such as the United States or Russia, there exist very few nations which could deliver such destruction upon them and none of these nations share a border with them. Israel, by comparison, is the approximate size of New Jersey and her neighboring nations, even the wreck which is Syria, are intent upon her destruction. Hezballah is currently, with heavy Iranian assistance, crossing the threshold beyond that which Israel can tolerate. The other terror group with their own semi-autonomous region, Hamas, has been threatening Israel and has already caused significant damage burning down virtually every field of crops within fifteen miles or so of the Gaza border with Israel. Israel cannot leave both Hezballah and Hamas in a position to strike at her at the time of their choosing, as such, an attack could hinder Israeli abilities to respond with sufficient swiftness.
With Iran controlling Hezballah and the two main terror groups in Gaza, Islamic Jihad and Hamas, Israel might very well wake one morning with a war engaging from the north or the south and by the end of the day have a second front break-out on the opposite border thus requiring Israel to commit to a two fronts war. This is not the best of scenarios and would require nearly shutting the country down and calling up virtually all combat reservists. Israel practices such a call-up ever two years just to be able to iron out any difficulties which may erupt as a consequence of such a training mission. When performing such a difficult call-up during a two front war, there would be guaranteed confusion which would take some precious time to iron out. Some of the Commanding Generals on the General Staff have claimed that Israel is incapable of fighting a two front war against the two groups in Gaza and Hezballah in Lebanon. What could make matters even worse would be if IRGC Iranian troops as well as the Iranian Quds Force also attacked Israel along the Golan Heights and rest of the Syrian border with Bashir al-Assad providing protection from aircraft with his improved S-300 antiaircraft systems as well as giving them air support and artillery support as well. There is even the possibility of the Russian forces in Syria allowing the deploying of their S-400 anti-air defense systems, the most advanced systems the Russians currently deploy. The Russians allowing the use of their advanced F-400 systems might be sufficient coverage against the Israeli F-35 stealth fighters, but maybe not. Such would be the first use official test of the presumed superiority of the F-35 stealth fighters in actual combat against the Russian anti-aircraft systems. Israel would gladly forgo any such war as any time spent in a state of war, especially if it required calling up significant numbers of reserves as that is what results in shutting down much of the Israeli economy. That is what makes any war so costly to Israel, and that is before we have to count the devastating loss of life, especially innocent life on either side.
Israel has attempted to express the problem in a number of different ways. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made the threat of the conversion of rockets into guided missiles the central theme of his United Nations speech. He laid out exactly where the underground facilities carrying out the conversion were located including pictures of the soccer field under which two of these conversion sites were operating. He covered the southern Beirut neighborhoods where support operations and coordination was being handled. Prime Minister Netanyahu told that Israel could not allow this threat to continue and grow any further and that should Iran continue using Hezballah to be their proxy with which to attack Israel, that Israel knows the real power behind those forces attempting to destroy the Jewish State. Israel stated that the continued operations to make these missiles into existential threats would force Israel to act and implied that under some circumstances, Israel might find it to her advantage to engage Iran directly to end her supplying Hezballah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas with weapons to use against Israel. Trying to avoid an inevitable war has to be frustrating. Where does an Israeli leader turn for help in preventing such a war. There have been messages sent through France, the United States, and even been mentioned in the Al Hayat newspaper where it stated that Israeli National Security Adviser Eitan Ben-David has told French officials that Israel was seeking a diplomatic solution before embarking on a military operation. They cannot claim that nobody warned them any longer and perhaps it is their intention to provoke a war with Israel, but perhaps not at this time. In part of Netanyahu’s speech, he warned Hezbollah that, “Israel knows what you are doing, Israel knows where you are doing it, and Israel will not let you get away with it.” Also, this past January, Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson, Brigadier General Ronen Manelis, wrote an op-ed to a Lebanese newspaper in which he directed a warning to Hezbollah that their efforts to manufacture rockets inside Lebanon would plunge the region into war. There is not much more Israel can do yet still the leadership of Hezballah insists on continuing to upgrade their rockets into guided missiles coming ever closer to that number where Israel chooses to act. The resultant war would also be devastating for Lebanon and would almost wipe everything south of the Litani River with the length and breadth of the Bekaa Valley as well as much of Beirut where this work is being conducted. One item which is often overlooked is that Israel also has rockets and numerous guided missiles with which to strike at targets including those buried deep underground. This little fact is also of supreme importance to one individual and any in his bunker with him, dear Nasrallah, we know where you are hiding and even when you change locations, so; you better look out, you better not shout, no threats to Israel you spout and running all about, for the IDF is coming for you.
This threat of war can be dismantled and not intentionally made worse and worse until Israel absolutely must strike as leaving such a number of guided missiles ready to strike at the heart of the nation killing untold numbers due to the increased accuracy. Should these guided missiles be utilized on central Tel Aviv striking many of the towers, bringing any of them down would result in a massive loss of life. Such would be an Israeli 9/11, something nobody outside of the Arab and Muslim worlds desire seeing. There would be candy handed out in the streets of Gaza and around the Middle East in celebration of the death of so many Israelis as any who happened to be Israeli Arabs, well, that is what you get for working alongside Jews. These forces including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezballah, IRGC, Quds Force, Palestinian Authority, PLO, the leadership of Iran and others around the Middle East and North Africa, all fight for and pray for and hope for the eventual taking back of the land where Israel currently stands. These forces love this land so much they are willing to burn it to the ground and leaving it a slag heap of radioactive debris which would leave it uninhabitable for the next few decades if not centuries. That is how much they love the land, but it goes with their mantra which states that they love death as Israelis love life, and that is why they will defeat Israel. Their accusation is absolutely correct except that they will not win, as life is stronger simply because it is based on love and light and not on hate and darkness as their culture of death has become. Israel desires to build, invent, plant, nurture and make advances which will benefit all of humankind while they desire to kill, destroy and tear down and then cannot figure out why they are incapable of advancement. Life, light and love must win out here in Israel otherwise the world is at risk of falling into a prolonged dark age which will take science and industry back about a thousand years and leave much of what has been built fallen to the ground in twisted ruins. That is the future we must, as the human race, choose between, light, love and life or darkness, hate and death. We choose life. We give love. We spread light to chase away the darkness. Remember that a single candle with its tiny flame can illuminate an entire room chasing out its darkness even from the corners.
Beyond the Cusp