Iran Edging Towards War with the World

 

The ramping is about to begin for earnest. In recent reports we find that, “Iranian President Hassan Rouhani issued an ultimatum Wednesday to the remaining signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal, vowing to end all limitations on uranium enrichment if its demands are not met.” In related reports we find that the, “Islamic Republic had quadrupled its enrichment rate of low-enrichment uranium,” as well as that according to an unnamed source said who was quoted by Fars, “As the commission meeting in Vienna could not satisfy Iran’s just demands … Iran is determined to cut it commitments to the deal and the 300 kg enriched uranium limit will be soon breached.” We have our own opinions about the Iranian nuclear program, you know, the program which under the JCPOA they would monitor themselves, report to the United Nations and then the two could work together with assistance from the European Union to allow Iran to do as they please, manufacture nuclear weapons both in warheads and payloads for their several forms of delivery all while not breaking a stretched and warped JCPOA which will end up being even more porous than the original, the one President Trump withdrew from as it had insufficient restrictions and allowed Iran complete ability to become a nuclear armed nation within the decade. So, what to expect without getting lost in the minutia as that is what will be discussed, covered by the media and used as a distraction while Iran continues to arm herself.

 

Iran already had rudimentary nuclear devices which would serve as guidelines from where they could develop more powerful weapons and miniaturize them such that they would be deliverable atop their numerous ballistic missiles and especially atop their ICBM which has been in development for at least a decade. There are numerous different ballistic missiles which Iran manufactures (Pictured below). The ranges given are assuming a near maximum payload and can be increased by reducing the payload. That is why the miniaturization becomes so important, you get greater deliverable yields per pound or kilo and thus instead of their Simorgh missile being restricted to a range of 4000 to 6000 km, by decreasing the payload by 33% and the range increases to approximately 5500 to 8000 km which begins to bring some coastal areas of the United States within range from Tehran. Even fully loaded, that missile can readily strike every European capital city with ease. Add in the other means that Iran has proven to be capable of deploying, such as firing ballistic missiles from cargo-container ships which brings all but remote parts of Siberia within range as even the Shahab-3 has been fired from a cargo ship stationed in the Caspian Sea test firing over the western mountains of Iran striking a firing range in the southern end of the range in the high desert. These tests were fortunately caught and the trajectory tracked by surveillance satellites. Needless to comment, but a nuclear armed Iran places every capital city and most major metropolitan areas in the Western world and beyond within range of either their ground-based missiles or their cargo-container ship fired missiles making almost nobody safe from an Iranian threat carried out. This knowledge should be part of any calculations made concerning Iran.

 

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges 

 

 

Iranian Missile Trajectory of test firing from freighter cargo ship sailing out in the Caspian Sea aimed to strike in the southern end of the high desert covering a range of close to two-thousand-five-hundred kilometers. This test has been practiced with every solid rocket missiles from Iranian armories. 

 

 

This leads to the most vital question; would Iran initiate the use of nuclear weapons. One comment may provide an inside look at the Iranian outlook if war should break out. A senior Iranian parliamentarian threatened on Monday that Israel will be destroyed in half an hour if the United States attacks Iran, the semi-official Iranian Mehr news agency reported, according to this source. So, Iran is willing to provoke a war with the United States and should the United States respond, they would attack Israel, a nation which is not a party to the conflict to that point. And there is more hidden in this threat to provoke widening any conflict by attacking the Jewish State. Iran would certainly attempt to utilize any response from Israel as a reason for the Islamic world to come to their aid in this jihad now about to be waged on Israel as well as the United States. But even this is not the end of what is intimated in this threat, and that will answer our question about Iran using nuclear weapons when initiating a conflict. The same source also reports that Mojtaba Zonnour, Chairman of Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, made the remarks in an interview with the Al-Alam TV network stating, “If the US attacks us, only half an hour will remain of Israel’s lifespan.” We also should remember that other Iranian officials have referred to Israel as a one or two bomb country inferring that with as few as two bombs, Israel could be, for all intents and purposes, destroyed as a nation leaving little of her population and infrastructure. Now, we know Israel is a rather small nation, about the size and shape of New Jersey, but it would take numerous salvos of conventional explosives in order to destroy Israel. On the other hand, with a nuclear weapon were to be dropped at the southern end of the Tel Aviv metropolitan region and another between Tel Aviv and Haifa, then a goodly part of Israel would face ruination. The next question would be whether or not Iran would bomb Jerusalem, the second largest and populous city, as this too would be necessary if Israel were to actually be destroyed. Still, to destroy Israel in such a manner, the only means would be to use nuclear weapons. These leads us to believe that Iranian leadership has little compunction about using nuclear weapons, and this should trouble everybody.

 

Thus far open warfare has been avoided, not that it has not come very close. There were the oil tankers which were attacked with mines and other means in the area around the Straits of Hormuz which did not bring any response from the United States. They could rightfully claim that they did not have conclusive evidence that the Iranians were involved. Then came the downing of the United States reconnaissance drone which was purportedly in international air space which was tied directly to Iran. President Trump initiated a response only to call off the strike and order the aircraft back to their stations on the aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea. There have been numerous discussions as to whether this made President Trump appear prudent or was a sign of weakness. Whichever appeals to you, it makes little difference until somebody acts upon such suppositions. Should Iran interpret their not being hit and the strike being called back and believe the United States is fearful of any war with Iran, then there is going to be a problem. From what we have read and feel, Iran will continue pushing until there does come a response from the United States and then they will run to the European Union and the United Nations screaming ‘Foul!’ At this point, the world will begin to take sides in this coming disaster. The initial breakdown will be evidenced by the General Assembly vote as to whether they back the Iranian complaint or side with the United States and their claims of Iranian provocations. Then things will develop as the United States, or at least President Trump, will insist on backing from the rest of NATO. We can pretty much guarantee that Turkey will claim that they are too involved in containing the Syrian violence to spare any forces. Of course, that is simply their excuse, the reality is that Turkey is no longer a supportive member of NATO and has decided to go along with the Islamic world and their eternal struggle against the nonbelievers.

 

The most frightening thing has also been commentary from Iranian leaders over the years who have stated things such as, “If the US attacks us, only half an hour will remain of Israel’s lifespan,” plus referring to the recall by President Trump of the strike force, “If they (the Americans) had predicted their attack would be successful, they would not have cancelled it and it would definitely have happened,” and lastly, the Supreme Leader has stated in the past that he would sacrifice Iran if it was required in order to destroy Israel. Once again, we have the immediate result of an Iranian first strike on Israel would destroy the nation. This kind of statement is being made with the knowledge that well over half of any initial set of missiles would be intercepted by the series of anti-missile platforms developed by Israel which include David’s Sling and the gamut of Arrow interceptors which are tied into the THAAD interceptor and over-the-horizon detection systems which President Trump ordered set up in Israel to assist with her defense against such attacks. But when Iran threatens to destroy Israel with two bombs, what they intend is they will launch some countable number of missiles, potentially nuclear tipped, and hope to get at least two through the Israeli defenses while Hezballah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad will attempt to launch as many of their over one-hundred-fifty-thousand missiles and rockets in their combined inventory and be counting on such a barrage to destroy Israel. This, too, has been made questionable due to the Israeli Iron Dome interceptors but even they would be pushed beyond breaking point with such a number of targets to down. Perhaps, once such an exchange had taken place between Hezballah in southern Lebanon and southwestern Syria aided by the Iranian IRGC forces in southern Syria probably all coordinated with Hamas and Islamic Jihad largely in Gaza with some potential for problems out of the Shomron areas of the Palestinian Authority, then Iran might launch a second series of missiles hoping that the majority of the Israeli interceptors were destroyed.

 

The real problem is that we are talking about how Iran would go about destroying Israel, but why would they take on an adversary which might well be willing to utterly destroy at least Tehran and Qom. Why Qom, I hear some ask. Qom is the holy city from whence the Twelfth Imam is said to arise from through some miraculous events as he has been in hiding, presumably in this well in Qom, and he will signal the beginning of Shiite Islam rising and not only becoming the strong horse and the main sect of Islam (it currently represents about 10% of Islam with the Sunni being almost all the remainder) and soon after to ruling the world. The one thing which would be assumed should an attack of missiles be launched against Israel by Iran, namely that it would be a WMD attack of either nuclear topped missiles or warheads carrying chemical agents. Any Israeli response to a WMD attack is well known, Israel will return in kind meaning Israel will use WMDs which means nuclear missiles. The reality is that any actual Iranian missile launch from their areas in Iran, Syria or Iraq would likely be initiated with the launching of likely hundreds of missiles towards Israel. Israel cannot be expected to wait and see how many were intercepted and what were the nature of the ones which detonated within Israel before responding. Israel has about eight to ten minutes to decide whether or not to respond and exactly how Israel will respond if they decide to do so. That does not leave any time for consultations and is the kind of decision which would be laid primarily in the lap of the Prime Minister. With such a time limit before the missiles strike, one need figure that of those eight to ten minutes after detection, five would be required to order, program and launch any response. That leaves time for what would be the toughest four-minute decision in Bibi Netanyahu or any Israeli Prime Minister’s time in office. Fortunately, that decision would never be placed in our hands for the foreseeable future. Israel almost naturally must assume that any Iranian missile launch would be largely made up of WMDs, probably both nuclear and chemical agent warheads would be employed.

 

Further, Israel is not likely to be their only target launched upon as we can expect many of the Gulf States, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and potentially even Egypt. Iran has plans for their taking of the Saudi Arabian oil fields along with the Gulf States and Kuwait as well as taking control of Mecca and Medina. They believe that by doing so they will have destroyed the Saudi Royal family and much of the Sunni world’s leadership leaving the Islamic world for the taking. Despite the news coverage stressing everything Israel launched and does militarily while playing down the responses from the Saudis and their allies; President Trump will be blamed for not attacking Iran, attacking Iran too forcefully, attacking Iran too anemically, for using weapons systems which were too expensive when less measures were available, using WMDs, not using WMDs or just about anything else one can imagine. We cannot leave out the howling, wringing of hands, crocodile tears and other news anchor antics should a single United States soldier be injured or, heavens forbid, killed. We are not sure where the concept came that wars can be fought without casualties, but that is a very dangerous concept. The best bet, as the WOPR computer system from the movie “War Games” stated after doing some deep thinking, “Strange Game. The only winning move is not to play.” Well, we pray that nobody decides to initiate this strange game where the only winning move is not starting something which others are assured of completing.

 

War Games WOPR Computer 

 

Beyond the Cusp

Gaza

 

Gaza, the word itself gives thought to meaning, and that meaning is different for every individual. It should not convey such latitude of thoughts, but that is largely due to the media and its mendacious reporting. With the world of reporting as it is, one often will have feelings on issues divorced from reality and stuck forever on a single picture and the caption or the repeated description of the amount of violence from both sides. The range of the “facts” when it comes to Gaza, and to everything touching Israel, is frightening and a threat to even the most basic truths. Once, back in college Intro to Philosophy class, we discussed and even argued fiercely over whether or not such concept of truth and reality had any meaning and how, if at all, were they related. In the end, we agreed to disagree and this was the exact point the professor was attempting to make. His conclusion was that reality and truth had about the same relationship to one-another, as we were able to reach an agreement. Put simply, truth and reality are relative to the viewer and as for is there an absolute reality, according to the professor, such only exists in the imaginary realm described by Plato. My thoughts on that were they probably sat next to the perfect three-legged chair with the perfect two-legged dinner table making them the perfect set for a meal with discussion.

 

While we are on the subject of college, it was in a physics course where we were introduced to the thought experiment, so let us try a thought experiment. First is we are going to represent the United States by using New Jersey, it is roughly the size and shape of Israel. We are going to move New Jersey into the Middle East replacing Israel. Gaza will be placed in the southwestern corner of New Jersey just as it is in Israel and New Jersey will be bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to the west, Lebanon to the north, Syria to the northeast, Jordan to the east, Saudi Arabia to the southeast and Egypt to the south. These borders differ slightly from Israel but are fairly representative of reality. For those who disapprove of President Trump, you can choose to have John Fitzgerald Kennedy as the President acting as he did during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Now to put all of what has happened into a familiar setting, this is what would have been occurring. First thing is there have been violent riots continuously for the past two and a half months and are showing no signs of letting off. Over one-hundred rockets have been fired into New Jersey (Israel) striking as deep as Willianstown/Rahat and as far north as Camden/Ashkelon. Further, there have been hundreds upon hundreds of acres of crops and forests burned down by having incendiary kites and balloons flown over your border and this has started to show signs of increasing and using larger helium balloons to penetrate deeper into New Jersey (Israel). Your intelligence bureau has found maps showing the quickest and most direct routes to the neighborhoods bordering the points where these rioters have attempted to breach the border which have been provided to the rioters. The leader of Hamas and ruling power in Gaza has stated publically and loudly that the rioting would continue until the border is erased, all of New Jersey (Israel) has been liberated, and its people killed. He has urged that the rioter upon breaching the border tear out their hearts and eat their livers of those they come across and murder. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have been provided with technology and the required molds for making larger rockets and even rudimentary guidance systems which allow for far larger rockets which can be targeted at specific areas striking within a couple of hundred yards. The largest of these are the M75 which is called the Jerusalem Rocket and the R160 (see chart for increased ranges over the years). That is where things stand currently with the kites and balloons still being launched, the rioting and burning of thousands of tires daily sending plumes of acrid smoke into Israel and across Gaza, the introduction of drones carrying incendiary devices and always the threat of more rockets and even having Iran order Hezballah to join the assault upon Israel.

 

New Jersey Representing Israel in Middle East
New Jersey City’s name on the top
Israeli City’s name on the bottom

 

We promised a map showing the increased range that the projectiles launched from Gaza have attained but allow us to add another item to the scenario, rocket payloads and ranges. The list goes as follows; Qassam-1 has a one and a quarter pound warhead with range of four and a half miles, Qassam-2 has a eleven pound warhead with a range of just over six miles, Qassam-3 has a thirty-three pound warhead with a range of seven and a half miles, Grad has a forty pound warhead with a range of twelve and a half miles, WS-1E has a forty-eight and a half pound warhead with a range of twenty-eight miles, R-60 has a two-hundred pound warhead with a range of over forty-five miles, and the M-75 has a three-hundred-thirty pound warhead with a range of over ninety miles. Looking at the map below and it is not beyond reality to believe that Hamas, supplied by Iran, now has even larger warheads on rockets which can strike anywhere in Israel and, if they overshoot, possibly striking Lebanon and Hezballah (one can only hope).

 

Hamas Rockets and Missiles Depicting
Increasing Ranges by Conflict with
Yellow – Dec. 2008-Jan 2009
Tan – November 2012
Orange – July-August 2014

 

So, we have set the stage. What do you believe an American President would do in case of such threats and provocations? Do you think his Security Cabinet would be discussing ways to alleviate the collapsing economic problems within Gaza by doing, as many in the IDF general staff have suggested, providing Gaza with building materials including plumbing supplies of all sizes, cement in the thousands of pounds, masonry in equal amounts, provide them with additional water from Israel as well as additional natural gas and electricity with Israel providing 100% of the necessary power to Gaza? The Israeli leaders actually believe that the problem is the economic conditions in Gaza causing the rioting and all the hatred and not that the hatred and throwing all of their funds into weapons and tunnels designed to destroy Israel ruining the Gaza economy. They were discussing doing what the United Nations and European Union claim is necessary to end the problems in Gaza. Really? Does any rational person anywhere on the planet not think that should Israel do exactly what is described above that the supplies would not be utilized with the plumbing used to make more rockets and mortar tubes and the cement and masonry to build tunnels and not schools, housing and hospitals. This is exactly what they used the plumbing from the greenhouses Israelis left so they could have at least one industry to help start an economic viability became Qassam-1 rockets, and whenever the United Nations, European Union or other nation or organization provided building materials, it almost all went into their tunnels throughout Gaza and into Egypt and Israel, the former for smuggling and the latter for infiltration and terror attacks. Watching the United States over the years and the only conclusion we can reach is if they were in the place of Israel, the world would not have a Gaza problem to discuss. Gaza would have been wiped clean off the map and replaced with casinos along the coast and track housing in the interior with greenhouses and crops of fruit being grown in every open area, which there would be quite a fair deal of after the American military was done. The morning after those one-hundred-plus rockets were fired across an area covering almost one quarter of New Jersey (Israel), the President would have already given the orders and every living thing in Gaza would be cleared from the land and if they resisted, shot on the spot. Everyone who was participating in the rioting would be targeted using facial recognition software such that every soldier would be notified by having the face of the rioter shaded in red in his visor telling them that this person was a legitimate target. Smart drones would be hunting out the leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad with anti-personnel missiles ready for launching upon discovery. As for them hiding in their bunker under the al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, that just might be the initial strike target. As for the rest of their tunneling systems, we are sure the United States has by now after Viet Nam developed an automated system for destroying tunnels and for shooting anyone found in the tunnel and not identified as an American soldier. What would be even more amazing is that there would be no meetings of the United Nations Security Council, the UN Human Right Committee or the General Assembly or any of the plethora of United Nations Agencies filled with busybodies usually just hunting for their next target. The deed would be done and the problem resolved quickly but not so quietly.

 

Israel, on the other hand, is expected to not only suffer these attacks, but the world demands that we feed and give relief to these very same people who are doing everything in their power to murder every last Israeli. As Israelis, we are not overly pleased with their intentions. There is a growing consensus amongst Israelis that the time has come to stop playing so nicely with these murderous terrorists and dealing with them just as any normal nation would deal with terrorists within their midst, destroying their ability to pose even the slightest threat and then making dead sure that they never gain have any hope of attacking Israelis with more than a sideways glance, and even that would cost them. This is a war between civilization and barbarians who are at our gates. The last time the barbarians at the gates were treated with kindness brought down the existing Chinese royalty when those barbarians swept across China. That should be one of the advantages of the location of Israel, we can look just as easily at Asia and Africa as we can Europe as the three meet at our doorstep. That has been an advantage as well as a curse as every empire seems to go through Jerusalem. The reality of what Gaza poses is written across the map showing the progressive increase in range and payload which Hamas and Islamic Jihad have at their disposal. This is traceable straight to Iran, and it is Iran who has a burning desire to eliminate the Jewish State, the Zionist Entity as they refer to Israel. This threat does not stop at Hamas and Islamic Jihad; it also comes from other quarters.

 

Iran currently has IRGC and al-Quds forces within Syria presumably assisting Bashir al-Assad in winning the civil war which attempted to overthrow him. What is interesting is the presence of al-Quds forces which are trained and presumably solely assembled with only a single target, Israel. Additionally, Hezballah has spread into Syria also under the guise of assisting with the civil war. Hezballah is another Iranian proxy who initially was to take control of Lebanon politically and destroy Israel. They now rule Lebanon and have replaced many of the Lebanese military officers with Hezballah officers but are still working on the second goal of destroying Israel. Hezballah is currently estimated to have over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles with over two thirds capable of striking anywhere within Israel and some which could reach Cairo and Medina. Many of these missiles are fitted with fairly accurate guidance modules provided by Iran and made in Iran, North Korea or China. One can only ask the simple question, what are our leaders waiting for, Hamas to have one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles with similar capability to those possessed by Hezballah? What exactly will it take for them to wake-up and smell the trinitrotoluene (C6H2(NO2)3CH3)? We pray that the shot fired that the Iron Dome and other anti-missile defensive systems Israel has developed all fail to intercept taking down a forty-plus floor tower in central Tel Aviv is what it finally takes to force Israeli leaders to finally give the order to unleash the full power of the IDF to destroy Gaza and then have the infantry backed by armor retaking Gaza and sending whatever remains of the population into exile not caring where they end up. We have our doubts that even such a tragedy would even get such a reaction.

 

Sometimes we fear that our leaders fear being criticized by the leaders in Europe more than they are of Hamas to Hezballah. If that is the case, then please allow somebody more worried about the people in South Tel Aviv who are under daily attacks by illegal immigrants who should have been deported and if no place will take them, then fly them to The Hague and allow the United Nations deal with the problem. We want leaders who are concerned about the farmers and people in the kibbutzim along the Gaza border whose town centers are on maps showing the rioters the quickest route to reach them to find victims once they cross the border after destroying the fence (picture of the map). We had a mortar land in a kindergarten less than an hour before it would have been filled with young children in the yard (picture of mortar round remains and of damaged tree and area where children were due to arrive shortly). People have had their homes partially destroyed, their vehicles struck and there have been scores of dead and injured over the years from terrorist attacks and offensives which started actually calmer than this round.

 

The big fear is that all of this from Gaza is the lead up to a planned all-out attack from three sides with Hamas from not only Gaza but with Iranian backed terrorists assisting Hamas from the Sinai Peninsula along the Egypt-Israel border, Hezballah along the northern Lebanon-Israel border and a combination of al-Quds, IRGC and Hezballah attacking the Golan Heights. There are ongoing efforts by Iran to gain control over Fatah and the Palestinian Authority and once Mahmoud Abbas leaves office by some means, there is the possibility that Iran will back any number of those who contend for the crown. Iran desires surrounding Israel with proxies to do their fighting for them. They have been doing this in Iraq (Badr Brigades), Yemen (Houthis), Lebanon (Hezballah), Syria (Hezballah and Badr Brigades), Gaza (Islamic Jihad and taking control of Hamas) and Qatar which has adopted the Iranian side against the best efforts by Saudi Arabia. Iran wants to take at least the Shia majority northeastern area of Saudi Arabia with the majority of the oil fields and the western coastal region along the Red Sea in order to control the Red Sea and thus the Suez Canal as well as taking control of the Two Holy Cities, Mecca and Medina. Iran believes that without Mecca and Medina, the Saudi Royal Family would be overthrown and in the aftermath and confusion, they could simply take over the remainder of Saudi Arabia, thus become the largest oil producer, and control the price of oil making them masters of the Middle East and power beyond.

 

Iran has established an adherent base through Shia Islam who follows blindly the Khomeini innovated ideology which declared Islamic jurists to be the only true source of religious and political authority. Their pronouncements must be obeyed “as an expression of obedience to God,” and their rule takes “precedence over all secondary ordinances [of Islam] such as prayer, fasting, and pilgrimage.” That gives the Supreme Leader (Rahbar) in Tehran almost complete control over these religious followers the world over. The goal is even greater with the “export our Revolution to the whole world” one of “the great goals of the revolution,” for the purpose of “establishing the Islamic state world-wide.” For a deeper coverage on this and Iran generally, we might advise this article (long) which goes into intricate details. The reality is Iran sees their largest and most hated enemies to be the United States and Israel in that order. They refer to the United States as the Great Satan and Israel as the Little Satan. Iran has a number of items on their to-do list which need be completed before they even consider taking on the Great Satan directly, but that day has been planned. The one thing that Iran has in their favor is patience. They are willing to take a hundred years, thousand years, and the rest of time to complete their conquest of the world. They will be careful and proceed with what they can take and rest until things calm and start again and repeat as needed. Iran has a training and action center in the Tri-Border region (PDF file) where Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina borders converge. This has become a Hezballah training center and operation hub in the Americas. As we stated, they have plans on the Americas which eventually will lead to the United States. Their initial imperative is to prove that Shia Islam is the strong horse and the true inheritor of Muhammad and turn the Sunni followers into converts to Shia Islam. This they believe they will accomplish once they control Mecca and Medina and have defeated Saudi Arabia. From there they would plan to spread across northern Africa sweeping the heart of Islam and making Shia Islam the main power of the Islamic world. In the meantime, Israel has an Iran problem on almost every border and that should be concern one which must be addressed, and not by providing Gaza with more resources with which to attempt to murder Israelis because eventually they will succeed, and that day will become another day of mourning, and we have sufficient of those already, thank you.

 

Beyond the Cusp