Beyond the Cusp

April 25, 2017

Turkey Has a New Caliph Called THE President

 

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was Turkey’s President, and is Turkey’s President, and apparently will remain Turkey’s President. So, what was the referendum all about and why should we be suspicious? Well, first off there was the official consolidation of all political power in the Office of President and the end of the position of Prime Minister. The President now has dictatorial power even over votes of the Parliament. The Office of President will be filled through direct election when required. Do not expect any President to lose one of those elections any time soon. Then there were the tactics where opponents who spoke out being intimidated by every means necessary. The final tally was interesting as well. One would think that since you controlled the counting of the votes that one might have chosen numbers somewhat more impressive around which to have such a collating of absolute power to yourself. There have been those who have questioned the legitimacy of the vote with the totals being merely 51.4 to 48.6 percent in favor of the referendum. Those numbers do appear very strange in deed and gets one to thinking, where in the world did Erdoğan come up with those numbers. That got us to thinking and then it struck us, there was another referendum in the news not long ago which people were perplexed at the outcome but all believed the numbers because they bore out the contentious nature of that vote and the near even split of the country. That vote started out seemingly one sided but after the more rural votes were tallied, came in favorably as well. We are referring to the BREXIT vote whose final tally was 51.9 to 48.1 percent in favor of BREXIT. The split in BREXIT of 51.9 to 48.1 and the result of the Turkish Presidential Referendum of 51.4 to 48.6 are just so darn similar that it is difficult to not want to tie the two together.

 

We mean what are the odds of the two biggest referendum votes taken just under one year apart at opposite ends of Europe having their final tallies so close; it is almost as if somebody fixed the second count to match the former simply to remove any doubts since the initial vote tally had been accepted by the world over. The vote tallies of 51.9 to 48.1 and 51.4 to 48.6, is it just us or are they just too similar for coincidence? Well, be that as it may, but it sure is fishy that these two votes in Turkey and Britain should come about within a year of one another on such vital subjects and have returns which have a similarity which cannot be denied. With a referendum consolidating vast power over parliament, the judiciary, the budget, and the military in the President and deleting the office of Prime Minister by rewriting the Constitution and to have results end up all but in a tie vote appears strange in and of itself even without the close tally to the BREXIT tallies. We have all witnessed Erdoğan and his tactics in the lead up to the vote. People speaking out against the referendum would lose their job, face arrest on charges of insulting the President (a crime which just got a whole lot more serious), Imams in the Mosques sermonized favorably to the referendum, organizations against the referendum faced limits for speaking out, opponents were bullied by police, all forms of intimidation were brought to bear, people were told voting “No” could endanger their afterlife, opponents’ homes would lose power regularly, referendum opponents were met with media blackouts, the nation’s future was pinned to support of the referendum and the full force of the government came down in support of what is basically the crowning of Erdoğan as President for life. Probably the clinching piece to this puzzle was the reporting by the Swedish NGO, Stockholm Center for Freedom, of “widespread and systematic election fraud, violent incidents and scandalous steps taken by” the election board “overshadowed the voting.”

 

Greater Turkey

Greater Turkey

 

So, every form of arm-twisting and vote fraud was used and the final tally reflected a BREXIT style finish to the nth degree and Erdoğan got his dream job, well, almost, what makes us so suspicious. We are calling this Turkey’s BREXIT from reality. Oh, call it that funny feeling one gets when little streams of electricity run up and down their spine warning that things are not right with the force. Call it a hunch. Call it nothing in Turkey which has had Erdoğan placing his hands on it has come out clean in the end and it has not mattered one single bit. The real question is whether Erdoğan is done or is there more he desires. The easy answer would be that he is done but we are not so certain of that. We recall his speeches of grandeur which he was going to return to Turkey and how Turkey would be the resurrection of the greatness of the Ottoman Empire starting with regions of Syria and northern Iraq which would be annexed, as he became the new Caliph. His greatness would be recognized and the Arab World would soon flock to his leadership and nation after nation would fall beneath his banner. One might ask what happened to this vision. Syria and then the Islamic State with Baghdadi claiming the title of Caliph is what happened to that vision, what we would call a nightmare. The areas Erdoğan was referring to in those speeches were the Kurdish areas. We know what you are about to ask, are not the Kurds one of the biggest problems which have flummoxed Erdoğan? The answer is a resounding yes but in this plan they would either be subjugated or completely defeated in much the same way the Armenians were completely defeated.

 

That brings us to what is next on board, Syrian expansion. We can expect Erdoğan to continue his military extension of power into Syria all in the name of confronting the Islamic State. The problem is that if Erdoğan is fighting the Islamic State, far too many of his bombs are dropping fifty to two hundred miles short of their target and instead striking the Kurdish positions and cities. When Turkish forces have entered Syria, they have done most of their fighting in the northern third of the former country. In these areas, they are engaging Kurdish forces and those of Bashir al-Assad, another enemy of Erdoğan as al-Assad stood between the Erdoğan dream of becoming Caliph and the reality of achieving such. Bashir al-Assad still stands between Erdoğan and his dream if for no reason other than the Syrian dictator is regaining his territory which would have been easier for Erdoğan to grab has al-Assad remained bottled up along the coast. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan still envisions himself crowned as the Caliph who reestablished the greatness of Turkey and returned to the glorious time of the Ottoman Empire when it was at its initial strength. Erdoğan has taken a serious step forward with the referendum towards making himself a singular leader of the Arab world and making all bend to his will. He has made Turkey into his own fiefdom and arranged that even the Parliament will bow to his whims and will. The map pictured above shows the extent of the world according to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, your new Caliph in his own mind.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 19, 2016

Islamic Hierarchy Should be the Target as Well as ISIS

 

Is Islamic State (ISIS, ISIL or al-Qaeda offshoot) honestly that horrific a threat and challenge that it should be treated as an individual threat needing a solution before any further assessment can be conducted? If you were to make this an inquiry of the United States State Department, they would answer in the affirmative and probably make Islamic State the sole terror threat requiring attention. Pose this same question to the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs of Staff and their answer would place Islamic State as the immediate threat but would follow that up with a litany of other threats hiding in the background, in the darkest of recesses. So, which assessment is the most accurate and which should be utilized to address future actions. Obviously the Pentagon assessment is more in depth while the State Department takes a mere cursory glance seeking the least invasive path and the least need for involvement having a minimal footprint. This demands further explanation more as to why the Pentagon explains a path which is far deeper and requiring greater invasive solutions and the State Department leaves most of the problem unaddressed and untouched. The reasons are simple and would be obvious to any observers. The Pentagon is funded by the width, depth and breadth of a threat and gains funding and importance through greater involvement. The State Department gains funds by having obscured threats which it can assign staff to investigate and report threats in such a manner as to allow them to linger, requiring greater inspections over the longest time frame. Thus any military assessment should be judged knowing their report will make the threat the greatest potential possible while State Department assessment should be realized to define the situation calling for minimal involvement in order to preserve the situational threat generating further investigations. The best path would more often than not be somewhere between the two assessments.

 

So, what do these realities have to do with Islamic State? A fair analogy would be somebody waking one morning feeling poorly and upon looking in the mirror they notice there are red blotches all over their face and further checking they find more such red blotches all over their bodies. Reacting to these skin lesions they make an appointment with a physician. The question becomes what type of physician they should call. The initial assessment is the patient has a skin condition so they might make an appointment to visit a Dermatologist and treat the skin ailment while ignoring the underlying disease. The result is the patient will remain ill and would need visit the dermatologist repeatedly while if they had visited an Internal Medicine Doctor they quite possibly would have been admitted to a hospital and undergo a more rigorous cure than they would receive from a Dermatologist but would also be cured. Simply put, if you have the measles you do not visit a dermatologist, you visit a doctor of Internal Medicine. The State Department is the Dermatologist and the Internal Medicine Physician would represent the Military. So, the military will present a harder path with the greatest potential challenges you will be presented with and some painful choices need to be made. The State Department provides for a simple and immediate repair of a situation while leaving the underlying problems churning away and no difficult choices would be necessitated. So, the path you choose will likely be somewhere between the two, which one you follow more closely will dictate the level of curative actions and their lasting effects.

 

Making war on Islamic State is a requirement of immediate urgency, President elect Donald Trump will need answer the riddle of how far does he wish to peel back the onion. A fully committed military campaign to destroy Islamic State presence in Syria and Iraq could be executed taking no longer than three or four months. The time it would take would depend on how ruthless and how close to barbarism the military forces will be permitted by their Rules of Engagement (ROE). The obvious problem with such tactic is that such a solution does little to permanently change the situation. When choosing civility while fighting barbarians, one makes leaders and financiers unaffected, they will just wait for the opportunity and start right up anew. The sponsors must be made to pay a price, even to threats on their lives, before anything will change. This was proven in all theaters of World War II where German leaders needed to be hunted down even to the last bunkers in Berlin and the Emperor of Japan had to be convinced the allies could utterly destroy his nation without losing any of their military forces. This has also been proven in the current “War on Terror” where we are treating the rash and ignoring the disease.

 

By now most Westerners realize the problems caused by terrorism and the threat posed by Islamic State. Where many fall down is in linking the two problems and realizing that these two problems though often unrelated directly, both have a root cause and any logistics, funding, know-how or other support for both are derived from the same pool of sponsors. The source for both terrorism and Islamic State come from the various wealthy and powerful governing entities throughout the nations of MENA (Middle East and North Africa) and the infrastructure put in place utilizing the tribal make-up of the society often pitting one tribe against another tribe in order to procure additional power and a broader area from which to operate. Should one trace the cash flowing into the coffers of Islamic State one would see a trend that the same monies also fund the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, al-Qaeda and other Sunni terror masters and their operations. Much of the funding originates in or by those close to the Saudi Royal family as well as graft skimming funds from government funding by Egyptians and other Sunni ruled nations supporting the Sunni, Muslim Brotherhood, forces worldwide. There also exists an extensive Shiite terror networks which is not quite as expansive but still a very real threat. These groups are financed, organized and run by the Iranian government and the Grand Ayatollah (Arabic:آية ‌الله العظمی) and Supreme Leader of Iran. The leadership of these terror forces controlled by Iran starts with the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) who incorporate the leadership of Hezballah and oft time Hamas as well. The reach by Iran is not as diffused as are the disparate Sunni terror forces. Much of the reason behind this is simply numbers. The Sunni make-up slightly over four-fifths of Muslims worldwide while the Shiites find themselves around a mere 17% of Muslims worldwide thus Shiite power structure by necessity must be more centralized and rigid while the Sunni can easily create anywhere from three to five separate groups.

 

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC

 

What people in the United States need know is that the current fighting between Islamic derived forces and the Western forces, particularly in and around the Mediterranean Sea is just the latest stage in the war with the Barbary Pirates. Truth be told, the European interests back to around 632 onto the current age have felt constant rumblings of discontent filled by dreams and desires to return to their ages of conquest and swallow Europe as they have tried before only to meet a standoff or complete defeat as was Andalusia, as was Spain. Much of the march of Islam colonizing the entirety of MENA has been accomplished by Sunni though there have been Shia heroes through the ages. Still, this fight to choose the ultimate ruler, the single Caliph who talks the talk but all are curious if one can be found who additionally walks the walk. Despite gaining a sizeable following and demanding he be recognized as Caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will not become the Caliph restoring the Caliphate as the requirement is a vast stretch of lands which are individually owned and most have real air power which would decimate any ground assault not possessing sufficient air cover, something which likely plagues al-Baghdadi day and night and he likely dreams of having sufficient fighters and the people to launch adequate air support. The Arab and Islamic worlds are far too tribal and fragmented each refusing to particularly perform feats of great valor and have somebody outside your team ending up with all of the glory. The tribal overriding thought power need be abandoned should Islam ever desire to become great again and have yet a second sense of glory and accomplishment. Such an accomplishment will take a true Caliph, one such as the last Imam, the one who leads the final conquests leading to an Islamic World running under Sharia, the Islamic Code of Laws as preached by Mohammad and the original force.

 

Expansion of Islam Across MENA and into Europe before Ottoman Rule

Expansion of Islam Across MENA and into Europe before Ottoman Rule

 

There are realities which must be faced and faced immediately. Before there can be progress the new President already has a large pair of conflagrations he need work out a solution which will probably require a fair number of military service personnel. A President Trump must use all the forces at his disposal in order to remove Islamic State from the picture. After this has been accomplished the next task will be forming a governance or set of governances such that Libya becomes a normative entity capable of trade with the world which will bring wealth to these governing bodies and the people as well. Once Libya has been resolved and returned to viability it will become time to deal with Russia and do similar for Syria. Russia will press for the entire area be returned to Bashir al-Assad while the remaining “rebel” forces will protest loudly and just as vehemently as they have all along. Meanwhile, a refuge for the Kurdish population will necessarily be needed while Turkey and her President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, are edging towards conquest and taking lands formerly belonging to both Syria, a lifelong enemy, and Iraq, whose Saddam Hussein had stashed thousands of barrels of nerve agent and other chemical and nuclear weaponry in an attempt to evade justice. Erdoğan’s hopes and dreams of reestablishing the Ottoman Empire will be muted. Once again all these solutions do little to nothing about remedies for the tribal alliances and primitive culture which keeps the nations of MENA suffering while other nations quite distant as in the Horn of Africa and as far east as Pakistan and Afghanistan are all experiencing national traumas from forces at the tribal area. These problems were exasperated by the imposition of the Sikes-Picot Agreement of 1916 which set arbitrary borders, making self-rule all but impossible. Sikes-Picot ignored tribal alliances and clan structures splitting these entities between three nations in some cases and two at others which simply added wood to the fire. Sikes-Picot also redrew the maps of Eastern Europe breaking up the Austria-Hungarian Empire. All of this eventually led to World War II and has set in motion the potential for a third shooting war, World War III. The problem is amplified with the knowledge that Eastern Europe is also facing economic distress along with threats from Russia to incorporate them back under soviet style land and they wish to remain free.

 

These areas are powder kegs just waiting for the fire from a mistakenly tossed match or misread of any situation to have the entirety of these places to sheepishly huddle under Russian wings. The United States lack of influence throughout the MENA area as well as the entirety of the globe for the last eight years has left foreign policy in such turmoil as to provide room for threats from all sides and levels. The world, and the United States and allies in particular, are facing an invigorated Russia, a China willing to manufacture Islands in order to further their goal of taking certain Islands which they claim as have other nations. These threats are backed by a new and proficient fleet China is building, a worthy blue-water fleet. Add to this the dual threat of a nuclear armed North Korea who has already developed and tested a number of nuclear warheads and appears to be attempting to manufacture an EMP device to knock out the power grid in North America thus neutering the United States military and causing widespread death. Along with North Korea we also will be facing a nuclear armed Iran who has the missiles with advanced guidance and range capabilities with which to deliver them. Once Iran is confirmed to have nuclear weapons one can safely assume that Saudi Arabia will call in their markers for their financing of the Pakistani bomb thus instantly becoming a nuclear armed nation as well. After this the proliferation across all of MENA will likely occur with blinding speed. From that point the rest of the world will be rapidly acquiring nuclear weapons and from there to annihilation of the human race is a short trip and it all might take place in a blink of an eye. It is truly sobering realizing how so very close we are from slipping beyond the cusp into a reality even Hollywood was unable to imitate believably.

 

The race now is to educate and bring the third world somewhere even with the advanced world. By this we mean to teach them from our mistakes such that the world benefits. These newly acquired nuclear capabilities must be impressed not to use them for the sake of humanity. At the same time the world need share its many secrets and the desire to go into space beyond just the solar system but to other star systems even beyond our cluster setting out to truly become a space-born people. That need be our goal if we plan on being a long lived species. I guess we will soon know if the Earth will become the origin of a truly enlightened space based society or will the Earth need await the next great catastrophe to rid it of a stagnant humanity so another intelligence reaches senescence and go off into space and be the long lived Earth born species.

 

Beyond the Cusp 

 

November 13, 2016

Erdogan Declares Border War on European Union

 

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President seemingly for life of Turkey has thrown the gauntlet down at the feet of the European Union (EU) demanding immediate action on Turkey’s demand for visa free travel throughout Europe from Turkey. With the onslaught of Islamic refugees emanating from within Turkey, it is little surprise if the EU is even the slightest bit hesitant to grant Turkey open borders with the numbers of refugees still residing in camps in Turkey. If this were the sole aggrandizement coming from President Erdogan it might be excusable, but there’s more. Erdogan has also expressed desires for Turkey to take steps, modest steps, but steps in reforming the Ottoman Caliphate. He has set his desires on incorporating Aleppo and Mosul into Turkey and expanding his borders southward taking areas of lands formerly part of Iraq and Syria and incorporating all the Kurdish lands into Turkey.

 

One might ask what would happen to the Kurds as the relations between Turkey and the Kurds has been rocky at best. This is where things begin to resemble the darker periods of Turkey’s history. The military incursion being executed currently by Turkey presumably to fight the Islamic State in Syria has been cover for their real intentions, eradication of Kurdish Peshmerga Militias and their other protective services. The actions by the Turkish military in Syria and suspected coordination in northern Iraq has been to ethnically cleanse the Kurdish areas in a similar manner as their historic Ottoman treatment of their Armenian minority population. The Armenians were a Christian minority residing in the northern areas of the Turkish Ottoman Empire who met a fate very similar to what the Yazidi faces at the hands of the Islamic State. What makes this threat to the Kurds all the more tragic is it was the Kurdish forces which rescued what Yazidi they were able to reach preventing a complete genocide of the people and now the Kurds may be facing a genocide themselves if they do not receive protection from forces capable of preventing the Turkish offensive against them. The first step would be the media and world governments actually recognizing the Turkish intentions for expanding their borders and eradicating the Kurdish peoples residing in northern Syria and Iraq. Unfortunately the Russians are fighting to save Bashir al-Assad and allied with Iran in this Syrian multi-front war and the Kurdish are not on the same team. What makes all this even stranger is the Kurds are not actually fighting Assad as much as they are simply defending their people from multiple threats. Assad and the Russians currently have no front where they are contending with the Kurds and unless they choose to fight the Kurds there would be no contention.

 

Greater Turkey

Greater Turkey

 

The Kurds have been the odd group out in the entire Syrian conflagration as their main intention has been to protect their own population from all outside forces. They have received limited assistance from any of the major powers and their main assistance came from what many might call the most unlikely of places. We will leave that for others to reveal should they so choose. Their main problem is they border a Turkey under leadership which imagines themselves the new Caliph and envision returning to their vision of a renewed Turkish Empire eventually on the grand scale which was the Ottoman Empire at its peak of power and expanse. The world is going to need to awaken and realize that there are still forces which believe they are destined by their deity to rule the world. Granted they will spend much of their time fighting one another for supremacy and once Europe has been subsumed there will be new leaders with the vision of world conquest rising from these new fronts.

 

These threats are real and need be addressed through some means by the rest of the world before such dreams become everybody’s nightmares. Today the main nations whose leaders envision world conquest are limited to Iran and Turkey but one must also figure for the Islamic State and Muslim Brotherhood who have their own plans for world conquest. The world had thought after defeating the Nazis and the fall of the Soviet Union’s empire, that world conquest as a viable concept had been defeated once and for all. Unfortunately that conclusion appears to have been premature as there remains another group who believe the world was made to be their apple to do with as they please and all must bend to their will. Until Islam has realized that their dream is everyone else’s nightmare and will eventually be recognized and their dreams of world conquest will bring ruin upon them and that their only choice will be accepting that others have rights to believe and live as they please. Until that day there is still a great threat in this world which need be remedied and the sooner the better. The first step might be the EU turning the Turkish request down cold and demand they have Visas to enter Europe; otherwise close the border. Unfortunately it will take new leadership across Europe before they will stand on principle. That can only lead to greater difficulties in the very near future. Where are the leaders for tomorrow or is there to be no tomorrow?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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