Beyond the Cusp

August 6, 2018

A Revolution Under Media Silence

 

Can a revolution happen if the media refuses to cover it? This may be answered in the not too distant future. The media has been doing its best to ignore the uprisings in Iran. The people of Iran are completely fed up with their leadership and are demanding change. There have been recent protests of varying size in the Iranian cities of Isfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad and Tehran driven by concerns over the economy as well as wider anger at the political system. In a rare CBS News reported, they disclosed that in Isafan, marchers shouted “death to the dictator,” before appearing to set fire to police cars. These protests have been gaining strength sparking across Iran as a nationwide anti-government movement starting last December continuing sporadically in varying points since. The driving causes include the 12.5% unemployment rate, the plunging worth of their money where the Rial has dropped to 122,000 to the dollar as well as their desire for an end to the theocracy replacing it with open democratic governance. The Rial has lost half its value against the dollar in just four months. Even some hardliners have called for new elections or for Rouhani’s civilian government to be replaced by a military-led one though they have no desire to replace the Supreme Leader the Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

 

The leaders of Iran have a completely different view of the effects and who is to blame. The problem, according to a statement from Radio Farda last Sunday claimed, the central bank alleged the Rial’s drop was the result of foreign conspiracies and said the currency’s weakness against the dollar was not a reflection of “economic realities.” “Recent developments in the gold and forex markets are part of the conspiracies hatched by the country’s enemies in order to agitate the economy and rob the people of their psychological security.” The Tasnim News Agency reported spokesman Bahram Qassemi as saying referring to talks, “The US or parts of the US may express wishes, but after the illegal withdrawal from the JCPOA and their hostile policies and push for economic pressure on the Iranian nation, I think there is no such issue.” Meanwhile, the US is set to restore its full range of sanctions in two stages on August 6, 2018, and November 4, 2018, forcing many foreign firms to cut off business with Iran. The real Iranian leadership appears willing to allow the “elected” government to fall taking the blame but the structure of the ruling Ayatollahs will remain unshaken and remain in control facing the unrest within the population.

 

Iranian Protests Against Supreme Leader

Iranian Protests Against Supreme Leader

 

These protests resemble those from 2009 in that they are calling for replacing the entirety of their governance starting with the Supreme Leader and the rest of the Ayatollahs replacing them with a secular democracy and complete separation between religion and government. They desire a return to secular rulership and desire a Western style democracy free of the Islamic totalitarianism. The government has claimed that these protests are the result of external agitators who are spreading discontent and lies and that those who take part in demonstrations are breaking the rule of law. There have been scattered reports on social media that the police have used live fire to break up some of the protests with a number of protesters being murdered with many others being arrested. If these protests result in similar results to the 2009 protests, then there will be a point when violence will become the standard reaction from the government where numbers of demonstrators will be mowed down in the streets and thousands, even tens of thousands, will be arrested with the majority not ever being heard from again and any attempt to attain information about these individuals will be met with silence. This time around, it has been reported that a good percentage of the protesters have been women with some in the leadership and the protesters cross all levels of the population from students to merchants and tradesmen.

 

What is also new to these demonstrations have been the direct threats to the Ayatollahs as there have been chants of, “Death to the Ayatollah!” The Daily Mail online has a rather extensive set of videos covering the Iranian protests, and from these videos the word protest could easily be used to mean riots, and show some of the injured individuals with some graphic content. These protests are spreading and are in their fourth consecutive day despite the attempts to break up their unity using tear gas, water cannons and as reported in some instances live fire. The Iranians are pretty much ready to take whatever risks and losses it may require regaining their freedom, the very freedom, which the Ayatollahs had promised in 1979, a promise which was quickly eclipsed by their totalitarian rule and iron fist enforcement. Iran is facing the same story we have seen time and again, the people revolt against what they saw as an imperialist leader, the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and accepted the perceived savior, the Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini whose return to Iran and rise to power was supported by the United States as President Jimmy Carter extolled the greatness of this wonderful man of religion and deep faith. Almost immediately after raking power, Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini allowed “students” to storm the United States Embassy taking fifty-two American diplomats and citizens were held hostage for 444 days from November 4, 1979, to January 20, 1981, and the inauguration of President Ronald Reagan.

 

The Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini also took complete dictatorial power under the thin veneer of an elected Parliament where only approved candidates were permitted to be entertained on the ballot and a President who would act as his official receptacle of blame allowing the Supreme Leader to remain perceived as perfect with the elected Parliament and President being the reason for all misfortune. Soon after the new government settled in the Ayatollahs instituted a second military just as powerful and as well armed, if not superior in numbers and arms, called the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which would “keep the peace” in times of unrest as in 2009, as well as be responsible for spreading the revolution across the Middle East and the world. The IRGC assisted and armed Hezballah in Lebanon making it the equal or better than the Lebanese army. Hezballah now commands the Lebanese Army and has complete use of its United States provided arms which were upgraded by President Barack Obama knowing these arms were actually going to Hezballah, have trained Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza, assisted and armed the Houthis in Yemen, carried out the March 17, 1992, bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires which resulted in twenty-nine civilians being killed and two-hundred-forty-two additional civilians were injured as well as the July 18, 1994, Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) bombing which resulted in killing 85 people and injuring more than three-hundred others (see image below). There probably are other terrorist acts and attempts at undermining nations traceable to the IRGC and even if not, just give them enough time.

 

Results of the July 18, 1994 AMIA Bombing in Buenos Aries

Results of the July 18, 1994 AMIA Bombing in Buenos Aries

 

The Ayatollahs also instituted the Basij militias who were used extensively in the decade long war between Iran and Iraq under Saddam Hussein. These Basij militias were utilized as the Ayatollahs’ shock troops and during the 2009 uprising were sent into the dorms of the universities to hunt down the leadership of the protests and persuade them to cease their activities sometimes resulting in their terminating the instigating students. The 2009 abortive revolution, also called the Persian Awakening, Persian Spring or Green Revolution, was over the perceived, if not actual, overthrow of the people’s choice at the poles where the majority was believed to have elected the opposition candidate, either Mir-Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi, and the Ayatollahs candidate of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was announced the winner. Whether or not he actually won is inconsequential, as the protesters believed he lost by a sufficient margin that they perceived this as nothing short of a repudiation of their votes. The protests were violently put down using the Basij Militias and IRGC forces where hundreds, if not thousands, were mowed down in the streets with many thousands arrested with a good proportion ending up in Evin Prison from which most never returned and all record of their eventual end left hanging as a mystery. Evin Prison is infamous for being where political prisoners are sent, tortured and eventually killed or die as a result of their treatment and also as a black hole where people go in and nothing comes out and even information appears to disappear along with the people who entered. During the entirety of the Green Revolution and its violent suppression, President Barack Obama continued in his negotiations with the Iranian government saying nothing about their actions and simply politely pursuing what would eventually become the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which is the nuclear agreement which President Trump recently pulled the United States support. The one important point is this was ended up being called a Presidential Agreement and was never a treaty, thus as President, Trump decided that the Presidency of the United States no longer agreed.

 

This brings us to the least favorite part where we predict what is likely to occur. Despite the fact that the Ayatollahs represent at most thirty percent and likely more like fewer than twenty percent of the population of Iran, they possess the vast majority of the firearms and definitely the most powerful weaponry, such as tanks and aircraft. The end result of these protests, especially if they should grow as we suspect they will, will come down to which side the Iranian Army, which is supposedly secular and somewhat independent of the Ayatollah unlike the IRGC troops who answer directly to the Supreme Leader the Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, decide to support and upon their choosing the people, assuming that is their decision, also the decisions of individual policemen who might also side with the people and who would be capable of arming people more directly than even the military as they are on the front lines and know who to trust should they side against the Ayatollah. Should the Army, as in 2009, decide to sit on the sidelines and do nothing, then the people face an impossible mountain to climb. The Ayatollahs have stated that they would attack Israel or the United States even if doing so guaranteed the return strike would decimate Iran, as they believe that after such events that their revolution to make Shia Islam the ruling power in this world would become true to honor their national martyrdom. With such an attitude, do you really believe that the lives of the people they rule actually matter to them. The only lives that matter to the Ayatollahs are those who support the revolution where Shia Islam eventually comes to rule the world, all else is inconsequential and may as well be dead to them. People who are in the streets demanding new governance are exactly the people who are superfluous bodies to the cause of the Ayatollahs and as such are unnecessary. The Ayatollahs very possibly would look at the protesters as people who are unnecessary baggage and a drain on resources which could be better spent on nuclear weapons and more missiles and other things which could be used to fight the war in Syria, arm Hezballah, Islamic Jihad, Hamas and the Houthis and any others who are spreading the Iranian revolution to the remainder of the world. The Ayatollahs do not place much worth on their own lives as they do not expect to see this glorious revolution through to its end, but they do believe that they can save Iran from its people even if such requires a purging of the population. This is the threat the protesters are facing and it is a serious threat. Unless the Iranian military comes to the defense of the people, their attempts at change will die in the streets right beside them. The only other hope for these protests would be outside intervention such as the United States did in Iraq. That is going to be next to impossible because the last thing President Trump wants is to use the United States military in another Middle East conflict. Of course, there is always the possibility of a miracle, and that is about what it will take for an uprising by the people of Iran to succeed.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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May 21, 2018

Sometimes Things Just Make Your Head Hurt

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:02 AM
Tags: , , , , , , ,

 

Are people really going to bring back idolizing mass murdering leaders like Joseph Stalin, more affectionately called “Uncle Joe” back in 1940s America? Apparently, they are if we are to believe the story from a Socialists, May Day, International Workers’ Day rally in Trafalgar Square in London. From amongst the parade’s extravaganza of signs, flares and flags, that is the impression we draw and what else could one believe (see images below). There really is not any different conclusion one could reach when viewing the scenes from Trafalgar Square in London. Labour Party supporters left little doubt as to their new heroes, and the direction they hope to take Britain. The May Day, International Workers’ Day rally appeared to be something straight from the Moscow original May Day rallies where people were volunteered to attend and look happy about the state of things. One might say they felt a tinge of nostalgia if it were not for the sickening knot they felt in their gut. Seeing banners of Stalin, huge banners of Stalin on display in London are not a celebration but a foreboding, a warning to all Britain of what is coming if the far left should win an election. This May Day, International Workers’ Day rally should be a wakeup call for every true lover of Britain who desires to try and salvage at least some of the beating heart of a proud nation for them not to allow such leaders to take to the fore in their political arena. Unfortunately, this is likely a muted call which will be drowned out with chants for “Uncle Joe” and his promise of a slice of pie for everyone and free everything off the backs of forced laborers and the return of collectivist farms and famine. Those were the hallmarks of Stalinist Russia and Ukraine, but that is history and nobody cares to learn history any longer.

 

Joseph Stalin Celebrated During May Day, International Workers' Day Rally

Joseph Stalin Celebrated During May Day, International Workers’ Day Rally

 

Marchers at May Day, International Workers' Day Rally Waving the Red Flag Banners

Marchers at May Day, International Workers’ Day Rally Waving the Red Flag Banners

 

Few More Shots of Marchers at May Day, International Workers' Day Rally

Few More Shots of Marchers at May Day, International Workers’ Day Rally

 

One would think that such a march with Stalin brought to the fore would not shock us, after all youth have been wearing “Che” T-shirts thinking they were one of the kewl-people simply for wearing a t-shirt with a mass murderer emblazoned across the front and likely some feely-touchy slogan on the back all about equality, fairness and sharing (see examples below). For those who either do not remember or were never taught the reality behind Che Guevara, he was the executioner for Fidel and Raul Castro who took great pleasure in his assigned position. Che Guevara had received a medical degree in 1953 but after he became radicalized, he found that he preferred taking lives to saving them. He was the hatchet man for more than just Cuba as after he was no longer required in Cuba, Che Guevara assisted with communist uprisings in Congo-Kinshasa and later in Bolivia. It was in Bolivia where CIA backed anti-communists, also known as our butchers by the American government rather than the Soviet’s butchers, where Che was captured and found himself poetically on the other side of a firing squad. Che was born on June 14, 1928, and summarily executed on October 9, 1967, at the age of thirty-nine. Yes, we know he authored books on revolution and social equality and held positions other than official executioner and commander of the firing squads. One description of Che Guevara given by Ronald Radosh, a Hudson Institute adjunct fellow, as stated in “‘Che’ spurs debate, Del Toro walkout” in The Washington Times from January 27, 2009, “He took joy in killing counterrevolutionaries and was one of the most hard-edged, most Stalinist, pro-Soviet communists of the whole leadership.” This was the man seen on campuses across the developed world, image made larger than life and who holds a place of the grandest of illusions that Che was the best of the best and they ignore that this physician preferred killing to healing, that was the real Che Guevara.

 

Various Che T-shirts

Various Che T-shirts

 

Still, communism continues to hold sway and the far leftists always have the same reasoning for their desire to impose extreme socialist governance upon societies which are producing wealth and improving the standard of living over the widest range of the citizenry. But the socialist leftist revolution does not see this, they only see that some have great wealth and for them this is a crime, not an example to emulate. Their reasoning is that they know it has failed every time it has been attempted, but this time it will work as it is supposed to work because this time they are the right people who will make it work. They fail to see the basic problem with the entire formula which has two main problems. The initial problem is once the power structure is in place and they no longer serve any purpose, they will be discarded and if not careful, simply shot as someone who is no longer necessary but insists on continuing the revolution. They do not realize that the revolution is always about changing the people who have great wealth from those who produced items people desired to the leadership of the revolution, usually the top three percent of the revolutionary figures, the rest are executed or escape and live silent and wretched lives on the fringe of the new order. The other mistake is the formula of “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs,” the formulation by Karl Marx in his 1875 Critique of the Gotha Program. In such a system, the intelligent choice is to have a great list of what you need and a short to nonexistent list of your abilities. Communism, or any form of extreme socialism, is based on limiting needs while forcing people to work as given the choice people will always have great hopes for realizing their needs but far less enthusiasm for working hard to realize them. Once a small percentage refuses to work but is still permitted to live at an equal level to those who work diligently and with great zeal and effort, soon the zeal wanes, the diligence become slack and effort goes out the window. This formula is doomed to fail as it works against the basic nature of people in a society. This can only function in a small group where everyone knows everyone else and thus slacking is immediately addressed by the whole group. Once the population gets large, there is no mechanism for shaming slackers, thus they begin to increase in numbers.

 

We may as well talk of why capitalism works so much better than socialism. The problem is people are, for the most part, greedy. We do not mean greedy as in avarice, but people want often more than they can reasonably afford. In socialist governance, they simply get on the waiting list and eventually they receive their desired items. Working for these items is not required because there is no connection between desires and work produced. Work is required according to one’s ability, and when one denies having any ability, in a large collective they get to skate. Further, if they are active in the ruling party and go to every party meeting, appear at every rally and show great enthusiasm, despite producing nothing of value, they will be rewarded simply due to their apparent enthusiasm, nothing more. Capitalism works completely differently. Capitalism realizes that people desire goods and services, often beyond their economic standing. Capitalism simply states that you will be rewarded for effort you make in providing something of service to the society. The more valuable your service or goods provided, the higher your reward. Higher reward means more goods and the one with the most toys wins. Greed drives production in capitalism, and that is the secret. Greed, desire for more drives one to produce more in order to be rewarded with more. The desire to acquire more items and live a richer life drives the individual to work harder and smarter. The desires are satisfied directly according to effort, not independent of effort as in socialism where as much as possible is made free for everyone.

 

But people still want something for nothing such as universal healthcare, free college educations, even free jobs created by the government simply to provide everyone with employment, not necessarily productive employment, just employment. When one adds in the fifteen dollar an hour minimum wage for these government jobs, many people making less will be quitting their productive work to apply and receive, automatically, these high paying government busy work jobs. They tried this in Mao Zedong’s China. One of the government jobs was mowing the grass in the capital city of Beijing. Each person was provided a pair of nail scissors and a six-centimeter ruler and was instructed to start at one end of a large multi-acre field of grass and to measure each blade and cut them individually all to two centimeters in height. When they finally weeks later reached the other end, they were returned to the beginning and instructed to perform the same job once more. This job employed one thousand people taking two to three weeks to finish the job once only to repeat their job endlessly.. The same job in a capitalist system would be performed by three or four people within a few hours with lawnmowers, powered clippers and an edging machine. Yes, the capitalist job would also require repeated performance of the tasks every three weeks or once a month as described in the contract. The complaint the socialists have is that capitalism makes for uneven wealth with themselves, the leadership of the political movement in the socialist camp not being the ones with the wealth. It is no accident that after the socialist revolt, the leadership suddenly becomes very wealthy and live lives of excess while those who had produced much to gain wealth are removed from the equation.

 

Joseph Stalin was a case in point. Stalin was a very powerful force for the Communist Revolution which placed Vladimir Lenin in the top position. Lenin was supposed to have asked Leon Trotsky to make sure upon Lenin’s death that Stalin never takes power. Leon Trotsky was a thinker and not a man of action and definitely not a man of violence. Stalin was all those things and Trotsky had to flee but was eventually settled with Stalin as he was murdered in Mexico by a Stalinist agent. Stalin was brutal and when the farmers refused to allow collectivization, Stalin sent the military and secret police to take all their produce for the cities leaving them nothing and starving them into submission. Many farmers continued to resist and were murdered. Soldiers who had fought particularly well in the revolution were rewarded with farms and told to grow crops for the revolution. These soldiers were city dwellers and knew nothing of farming and their lack of yields proved their incompetence. This lack of food production caused famine and in order to feed the cities and prevent another revolution overthrowing Stalin, he used the military and literally stole the produce of the now conquered Ukraine. Children who , out of starvation and depravation, would try to steal into the fields seeking dregs of the harvest were simply shot. The census takers were executed such that it was never to be revealed how many died in the Ukraine. What did Stalin care, these were not real Russians and his real Russians in the cities had to be fed and kept from turning against his governing. Stalin also began to place Russians into the Ukraine so as to keep the area under his control. These Russians were agents of the government and were rewarded with, what else, farmlands for their use. Needless to point out, this led to another famine. Stalin was estimated to have caused the deaths of anywhere from twenty million to sixty million people all included. Stalin was not the worst of the communist killers as that title falls to Mao Zedong whose numbers reach into the hundreds of millions. One telling of the story through essays is the “The Black Book of Communism,” a book contested by those defending Communism. One item many forget is that the Communists are only one side of the far leftist socialism, the International Socialist. There are also the Nationalist Socialists who some insist are right wing. The most deadly examples of these nationalist socialists were the Nazis, which stands for the National Socialist German Workers’ Party.

 

Europe has been drifting further and deeper into socialist governance with obvious results on the horizon. It is all spelled out in the Tytler Cycle of Power in Governance (see image below). There are those in the United States who also support socialist governance. An example of such a politician would be Bernie Sanders whose platform included national healthcare, fifteen dollar an hour minimum wage, free college education, and so much more as listed here. There are those who theorize that Communism could work provided it was applied to a nation which has a universal work ethic. This theory is most often used to claim that socialism would work in the United States simply because of the work ethic. It is believed that these efforts would continue unabated into the future. Where such a supposition might well hold its validity for those working at the time of the imposition of socialist governance, there is no promise it would continue into the following generations. The United States is already witnessing the youth expectations for a ready job waiting for them as soon as they receive their degree. Many have bought the idea that raising the minimum wage by almost doubling it would reduce poverty. In actuality it would increase poverty, cutting the numbers of minimum wage jobs by at least half if not much greater. Other results of such an increase would include many small businesses closing, automation wherever possible, a rush to produce AI humanoid robotic units, many workers who had pushed their performance simply to get a raise and a promotion now finding themselves back at minimum wage would be disheartened, the entire system would become broken, and lastly and the most oppressive result would be a general doubling of all prices as massive inflation would adjust everything to be in the same proportionality to the minimum wage, just adjusted for this level. Raising the minimum wage to fifteen dollars an hour would not produce any advantages, as within a year all prices would have reestablished their relative position to the minimum wage. For an example, let us assume that a fast food meal cost three times the hourly minimum wage, which with the minimum wage at $7.85 setting the meal price of $23.55. Now we increase the minimum wage to $15.00, what would you assume would happen to that cost for the meal? Initially it would remain the same but would very soon start to work its way up and up to $33.00 and then $40.00 and finally coming to rest at $45.00 if not slightly higher. So, within a year the average minimum wage paycheck would be worth exactly the same amount of money, but the people who own the businesses or have stocks in the large companies and especially those who own land and properties, these people would see a huge increase in their wealth and the end result would be an even larger abyss, a real chasm, separating the have’s from the have-not’s.

 

Tytler Cycle of Power in Governance

Tytler Cycle of Power in Governance

 

Should communism come to the United States through elections and the slow creeping socialism eventually overtake everything else, the same people will be in charge and giving the orders to the same people doing the work. The problem is with a higher minimum wage and free healthcare, college and all the other government giveaways, taxes would be raised on the working Americans resulting in even more being forced from the workforce as businesses tightened their belts and steeled up against the coming storms. In the end you would have approximately half the population not being productive yet receiving full benefits and the half that are working, many will not be putting their best foot forward after witnessing others getting their toes cut off for their efforts. Once the people feel the full effect of government removing the rewards for hard work and simply giving the exact same result to those putting forth no effort, that is when the workforce walks away from their jobs and the system once again will fail. This is what we can expect should the far leftists get their dream candidates into the White House. Should we assume that President Trump will be reelected and his Vice President wins a term, then it will take at least two and probably three Presidential terms for the leftists to turn everything around. The problem is after elected the same candidate twice to the Office of the Presidency, they would very likely declare themselves to be the Leader of the Revolution and President for Life. The highest officers in the military would already have been weeded with the conservative core removed and preening pretenders promoted in their place. These leftists already have pretty much a chokehold on the major cities which they regard as their own voting machines to wield as they see fit. They have taken over almost every school board and have control over the curriculums of their schools which currently produce Democrats sold on the idea of the socialist collective mentality where everything is produced by a committee where two or three people out of twenty perform all the work but everyone shares the glory. Perhaps the brakes will be applied in time, but eventually this will be the future. As we stated above and depicted, it is simply the way the wheel turns in the Tytler Cycle of Power in Governance, and there is no getting around this cycle by going the other way, that has been the proof of history. It is all very sad but true and so unfortunate. It is a result of urbanization as people residing in rural areas learn to do for themselves while those in the urban jungle learn to call a specialist. The differences are stark and spell the difference between dependence and liberty, serfdom and freedom, fear and courage, and finally living in a society best defined by some deformed and maladjusted confluence of George Orwell’s “1984” and Aldous Huxley’s “Brave New World” described musically by Steppenwolf’s song “Monster” as compared against the Bible and Plato’s Republic with the spirit of Charlie Daniels’ song “In America” describing an alternative. Socialism becomes slavery while capitalism encourages innovations. Innovations are the necessity of a healthy economic base and without innovation, a society faces stagnation, an evil which impairs progress and curtails all hopes for a better tomorrow.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

January 10, 2018

Iran Will Become Hopes Gained to Hopes Shattered

 

The protest started in Mashhad, the second or third largest city in Iran, on December 28, 2017, over prices and the poor economy. The demonstrators were largely the poor and some students but rapidly spread both along economic grounds to store owners and their employees and to every city. We are now into the second week of the protests and thus far, the leadership of Iran has shown little concern for the problems in their society. That includes both the supposed elected officials and the self-appointed leadership, which includes the Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ruhollah Mūsavi Khomeini and the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution who choose the Supreme Leader as well as vetting all candidates running for elected office, eliminating all candidates who show even the slightest glimmer of new ideas which might run contrary to their ninth century thinking. That has been both a good thing and a bad thing. It is kind of a blessing in disguise as the government not reacting means that they have been allowed to protest without overt actions such as loosing the Basij Militias upon the demonstrators as in 2009, but the government has also ignored their plight simply brushing away their complaints as unsubstantiated. Despite not forcefully opposing the demonstrations in their streets, the Iranian protesters have seen more than two-dozen of its members murdered. There have been reports of protesters after-dark firing shots at police armed with rifles and handguns. This is before the totalitarian government has moved to restrict or destroy the protests as they had in the Green Revolution bringing those protests to an end in 2009. The main question we have received is exactly what one would suspect, “What will happen with the demonstrations in Iran and what will President Trump do to support them?” Well, perhaps it is time to answer that composite and comprehensive question.

 

Iranian Protests December 30, 2017

Iranian Protests December 30, 2017

 

Allow us to answer the easier question first, what will President Trump do? Well, he will Tweet about the horrors and how the violence, once it comes, has to end and how he has the ability to strike Iranian leadership with a ‘yuuge’ can of whoopash. Truthfully, he will go to the United Nations Security Council demanding that Chapter Seven mandatory worldwide economic sanctions be imposed on Iran. This will probably result in a complete rejection of the Trump request with a vote where maybe two or three others on the Security Council with Poland and Côte d’Ivoire the only votes we might think to promise supporting such sanctions and with at least three; China, France and Russia, opposing such a resolution resulting in nobody even having to think of pulling out their veto power as the United States was forced to do over the Jerusalem resolution. The next obvious step, which if wise he will not even bother, would be to bring the same resolution under Chapter Six, a nonenforceable motion, form of the resolution which would meet with similar if not identical rejection. Taking any such resolution to the General Assembly would be useful only in displaying to the world how upside down the United Nations has become supporting dictators over people and condemning the free nations for any independent moves they might execute on the international stage. The combination of condemning the United States over recognizing Jerusalem, condemning Israel for existing, and protecting Iran and seldom condemning the slaughters in Syria; and while condemning Israel for Palestinian Arabs in Gaza and Palestinian Authority semi-autonomous regions for beating wives and at the same time saying nothing for the shelling, barrel bombing and use of chemical agents on the largest Syrian Palestinian Arab refugee camp destroying the camp and murdering hundreds if not thousands in the process, have already shown anyone paying even the slightest attention the duplicity of the United Nations at all levels and throughout every last one of its agencies with the United Nations Human Rights Council (HRC) and UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) leading the way. President Trump does not need to feed the media beast out to consume and destroy him, but he does need to go to the Security Council for whichever version of obvious defeat, Chapter Six or Seven, just to place on the international stage the complete rejection of willing principled action even for protecting citizens protesting the corruption in their government. The reason is obvious, why should the citizens have any right to protest their government because in socialist governance and dictatorial governance, the government knows best and the people should be thankful for whatever dregs are permitted them.

 

Now for the less obvious part of the question, what will happen as a result of these protests. That will come down to what happens after the initial crackdown. What will happen initially is obvious, sooner or later, more likely sooner; the Iranian government will make a pushback over the protesters. How, you wish to know. The initial anti-protest move will be a violent encounter between the civilian protesters and the ‘civilian’ pro-government protesters where the pro-government protesters will be made up of IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and Basij Militia members in civilian attire. These are military and paramilitary groups trained in hand-to-hand combat likely armed with batons and other handheld weaponry to wield against protesters largely armed with nothing or sticks from their protest signs. The civilian protesters will be unprepared for this pushback, as up to that point they will have faced uniformed police who were only in place to steer and limit their protests from spreading beyond certain limitations. This would be little different than how protests are handled in most nations with soft power but these protests have a different element, they are not going to end by themselves and that is where the problem arises. The Iranian government will not tolerate the bad media they are receiving from having the limitations and internal problems transmitted to the entire world. The Iranian government will need to end the protests so they can return the transmissions from Iran, especially through western media, of a nation where the people are satisfied and all is well.

 

Iranian Protests January 2018

Iranian Protests January 2018

 

Once this initial pushback had played-out and the Iranian leadership has weighed the reactions of the world and the nations within and as long as there is no overt outspoken a direct protest, then they will proceed to the next level of opposition. This will bring on a number of such pushbacks spreading to other cities with the Iranian government continuing to measure international responses. Once they have received some number of international reactions that such violence must end, then the Iranian government will have received the permission they require to put an end to the demonstrations, both sides. The first and initial confrontation between uniformed security police and the protesters will show them engaging with both sides. While the protesters who were taking the government side against the initial civilian protesters will appear to be being imposed upon just as harshly as the anti-government protesters but the reality is the pro-government protesters will shrink back quickly disappearing from the scene while the anti-government protesters have not been let in on the show and will receive the blunt end of government suppression. This low-level police action will last only a few days if that long. As long as their actions do not meet with actual threats of actions taken against Iran, direct actions as they could care less about sanctions, then the protests are doomed. The final stage will be mass arrests, shootings and heavy methods of disruption breaking the will and the spirit of the protesters. Such a put-down of the protests will require a number of days, probably less than a week to a week and a half, will continue with no remorse or limitation growing more violent with each passing day.

 

This will be the sorry state unless there is some direct intervention by the world or some nation capable of intervening and siding with the protesters and bringing down the government and remaining for probably a year or two and assisting keeping the peace until a new government has taken root, a democratically elected government in which everybody is permitted to run for office. There should be elected temporary governance which will draft a Constitution and establish the new governance and its structure then holding another election for a permanent government after the Constitution has been accepted by the people. Within the initial period will be necessitated that the Basij Militia members be sought out and prevented from being a subversive element intending to return the governance to being a religious theocracy. The problem is what nation would be willing and able to intervene and back the protesters demand for a greater voice in their government? The immediate answer is always the same, the United States. Many will claim that President Donald Trump would be ready, willing and able to jump in and take the fight to the Mullahs and bring Iran back within the family of nations. Those would be the words of those believing such is even a possibility. We are really sorry, but it is necessary that we pop your bubble if you are part of the interventionist political group. There is almost no possibility of the United States intervening in Iran short of Iran attacking another nation such as Saudi Arabia or Israel directly. Even with Iran using the Houthis in Yemen to attack Saudi Arabia including firing missiles at Riyadh which is the Saudi Arabian capital city and nothing from President Trump or the United States. Even if Hamas in Gaza and Hezballah in Lebanon and Syria were to attack Israel with hundreds or thousands of rockets and missiles there would be no reaction beyond speeches, Tweets and hopefully rearming of Iron Dome intercepting missiles as quickly as possible.

 

President Trump was elected to repair the damages of the last couple of decades since the Gingrich revolution and the Contract with America. His primary objective was the economy which included mostly tax reform and regulation reform. President Trump passed an initial tax reform and reduction legislation and invoked an Executive Order that every cabinet position, with very few exceptions, had to revoke two resolutions for every new resolution they invoke. This would, at the very least, be an incentive to reduce the number of new resolutions any agency would invoke because they would be want to revoke two existing resolutions. Reality be stated, each agency probably has so many redundant resolutions that revoking one of the many would make little if any difference. President Trump also promised to make trading with the rest of the world more equal while assuring the American voters he was not in favor of using the United States military in nation building or interventions in any actions which were not a direct threat to the nation itself. Where the Iran governance could potentially become a large threat to the United States and the world once they become an announced and obvious nuclear-armed nation with thermonuclear weapons, super EMP weapons and the ICBMs with which to launch them to any part of the globe, they are not currently so armed to the best intelligence currently available. Yes, we know we have made exception with the current intelligence and fully believe that Iran is and have been building a nuclear weapons arsenal for the past two decades and now have the missiles required for launching them anywhere on the globe and in numbers sufficient to overcome any current non-space-based interception systems. That possibility is probably included in the President’s Daily Brief (PDB) and would be further reason not to intervene with anything in Iran unless it was a full-scale intervention using virtually all weaponry at the military’s disposal. Such an intervention is not likely in the near future unless Iran does an overt act against another nation and not for acts internally. The Iranians will eventually take down the protesters with more than required violence against the protesters using extreme prejudice arresting thousands with many of the leadership taken to Evin Prison where they will face torture and most will never be seen again. It will be another sorry week/month in human history which future generations will be clueless on why no actions were taken, should humanity have that long a future.

 

Frightening Nuclear Proliferation Map

Frightening Nuclear Proliferation Map

 

Between the Iranian Mullah’s religious belief that they are determined by Allah to rule the world and spread Shia Islam to every person on the globe and North Korea eventually overplaying their hand and following through on one of their threats triggering a horrific war or China, Russia, United States or somewhere electing or choosing a ruler who is more mentally unbalanced than any in history starting a conflagration as the extent of nuclear proliferation is about to explode and soon most nations will posses a full range of nuclear weapons and the missiles to launch them virtually anywhere, certainly at their neighbors. Life on planet earth is approaching a vital choice where either a new age of cooperation brought on by the acknowledgment that the major powers have developed a space fleet in cooperation with their uniting the world eliminating differences and the imposition of world governance or flying uncontrolled beyond the cusp defined by a nuclear Armageddon and the destruction of all civilization as we know it and pockets of survivors left who after a few generations will have lost the knowledge with which we build the modern world and humanity returns to the stone age. The near future hold unlimited promise and a singular threat of total destruction and the choice will be made by the most powerful nations who at some point may have to choose between total and complete destruction of an area of the planet turning it into a wasteland for thousand years or more in order to save the remainder of the world for the future. Will the leaders who eventually face this choice have the nerve to make that choice or will they leave humanity’s future up to a far more perilous set of events. May we live to see the resultant earth from such decision or better yet, may that choice never be required.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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