Beyond the Cusp

June 30, 2019

With Trust Broken Trust Renewed Again?

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:56 AM
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Thursday evening there was a nonevent taken place with Egypt again as the intermediary. Israel and Hamas signed an agreement for an end to the balloon and kite terrorist attacks as well as ending rockets, mortars and presumably all other forms of terror attacks utilized by Hamas. In return Israel extended the fishing distance into the Mediterranean Sea and other considerations. One might ask why Israel would enter once more into such an empty agreement knowing full well that as soon as Hamas or Islamic Jihad are ready or receive directions from Iran, the attacks will start anew. That is presuming that the attacks actually are terminated at all. The nice thing about this round of trust given-trust broken was that we did not have to wait all that long before the lack of reality of the treaty was revealed. Within twenty-four hours of signing the truce, there were approximately seven-thousand rioters launching balloons and setting numerous fires across the southern border with Gaza. Hamas will inevitably claim that these were ground swell demonstration which they are unable of preventing as they are an expression of the unease amongst their population. This is an unease promoted and paid for by Hamas and their sponsors in Iran. These attacks have grown beyond the ability and probably beyond the desire of Hamas to control. Hamas instigated these attacks as a means of employing the restless youth who seeking employ were unable to find anything in Gaza. This is due to the Gazan economy all but in total collapse.

 

It is well known that Hamas has made one of their main concerns to be fomenting attacks on Israel. This is what led to the last war over the launching of hundreds of rockets daily for over a week before Israel responded militarily. Since that confrontation, Israel has deployed the Iron Dome missile defense systems which have made rocket attacks almost harmless. The Iron Dome is capable of intercepting multiple rockets at a time. Their remarkable interception rate and ability to project where a projectile will land has permitted Israel to all but nullify rocket attacks from Gaza. Hamas initially responded with border riots and terrorist infiltration tunnels. Israel developed a system which was capable of detecting the tunnels and the ones beneath Israeli territory were destroyed. This led to the launching of incendiary kites. These fire-kites worked well but their range was limited, thus the next phase was launching these devices using balloons. These carried the explosive charge further into Israel and spawned additional fires away from the former fires still being extinguished.

 

Hamas has already claimed after the last treaty that they could no longer control these fire launchings as they had grown beyond their ability to control. Hamas had absolutely no difficulty in suppressing the large scale riots and protests against their misrule of Gaza but are unable to prevent a group of youths and young adults launching balloons. This will be their excuse behind the several thousands of rioters who flocked to the border launching incendiary laden balloons into Israel sparking a record number of fires for a single day’s protests on Friday after the truce was signed. Hamas has allowed these rioters to continue with their assaults on Israel leading to the end of the last truce which did not last twenty-four hours and this time is proving to be no different. Hamas signs truces with Israel not intending to alter their violence against the Jewish State but to use as an additional bludgeon to beat Israeli resistance to a halt. They have no intentions for slowing or stopping the arson attacks on Israel and will, with time, return to their tunneling beneath the border with infiltration tunnels intended for the murder and kidnapping of Israeli civilians and to launching rockets at Israeli communities including Haifa, Tel Aviv and other cities over time.

 

Negotiations with Hamas have proven ineffective in preventing or ceasing their violent activities targeting southern Israel. Time and again these conflicts have escalated until a larger and more encompassing Israeli interventions is launched. With Israel heading for elections again in September, Hamas believes this is the time to take advantage of Israeli avoidance of large-scale operations in Gaza or elsewhere. Their feeling is that Israel will remain vulnerable at least until the elections as Bibi Netanyahu is not anxious to have to explain to the public his actions when the majority of Israelis are not affected by the Hamas escalation of attacks. This will, unfortunately, merely act to encourage Hamas to escalate the situation climaxing the week before the elections. Their hope is that the Israelis will react by electing a government more conducive to granting them even further concessions. Concessions are a reward and will never act as an inhibiting factor for a deterrence curbing the violence and rioting. The unfortunate reality is that Hamas, like all of Palestinian Arab society and too many of the Middle East region, only understand strong military actions designed not to retaliate but as a preventive measure which had removed their ability to strike at Israel. Their current form of attack with balloons and kites would be impossible to inhibit unless Hamas has an interest in preventing their taking place. That has proven something elusive to the Israeli leadership as if they have forgotten every lesson of past dealings with Hamas.

 

Hamas Demands Arming Terror with Money

Hamas Demands Arming Terror with Money

 

Further, Hamas is demanding that Israel permit their monthly payments of millions of shekels be permitted by Israel. These are the funds which Hamas required in order to pay their people, this according to Hamas. What Israel need learn from Mahmoud Abbas and apply to Hamas is that the first and most important payments on their payrolls are those willing to harm Israel and potentially murder Israelis. None of the payments will be used to prevent violence against Israel but rather to pay for additional violence against Israel and the stockpiling of rockets for future wars on Israel. This has been their exact modus operandi and will continue as such for as long as Israeli leadership is willing to play the patsy to Hamas. There are two tactics which would prove far more effective but which apparently Bibi Netanyahu is unprepared to use. The easiest which would simply cause Qatari money to find a new route into Gaza. They would likely be required to bribe Egyptian authorities and even then, such would be an unlikely path as Egypt has caught Hamas assisting with attacks on Egyptian personnel in the Sinai Peninsula. The other tactic is straight forward, military might to be used to smash their tools of war. There exists another means of deterrence which would work which has yet to be applied, targeting the areas where the leadership of Hamas reside and the stores, restaurants and other entertainment facilities such that the leadership finally pays a price. The main reason for the temerity in this area is because they would not desire to open up such an area where Hamas terrorists might target them. The final means of ending the problems arising from Gaza, be it Hamas, Islamic Jihad or any other terror entity would be to drive all of Gaza from Israel depositing them in the Sinai Peninsula. Such an operation would require making preliminary arrangements with the Egyptian government so they could be prepared to arrest or otherwise detain the Hamas leadership and military commanders. What is so ridiculous is that were Israel to follow such a path, the world would condemn Israel and blame Israel for the incarceration of the Hamas top leaders, both military and political, as if there is any real difference. The difference is that were Israel to incarcerate the Hamas and Islamic Jihad leadership, the world would be screaming for their release. By having Egypt do so, the world would scream for Israel to arrange their release and Israel could simply claim that no such plan has proven acceptable to Egypt. The world would not bother attempting to force Egypt to release these terror leaders as they know it would have no effect. But the Israeli leadership refuses to escalate the conflict to such a level.

 

The honestly sad reality is that eventually the depopulation of Gaza will be the final result of the Hamas, Islamic Jihad et al terror war against Israel. Their education system, summer camps and their entire education system is geared to the production of future terrorists rather than educating for a normative society. Their emphasis is not on Mathematics, sciences, language and other areas which are required for a productive and normal society. This is not the aim of Hamas and their allies. They are interested in producing armies of terrorists ready for that day when they will be capable of bring down Israel. Their dream is to reach a similar state which Hezballah has assembled in southern Lebanon and is using to assist Bashir al-Assad in Syria where Hezballah has well over one-hundred-thousand rockets and missiles with many capable of striking anywhere in Israel. This is partly why Hamas has allied with Iran as it was Iran who armed Hezballah. This is partly why Hamas continually demands that their region allowed for their fishing fleets be expanded. They know that by increasing their area for fishing, they increase the area for smuggling in such weapons making Israeli deterrence and preventive measures far more difficult to apply. Their dream is to be gifted an international airport through which tons of such military provisions could be transferred without the opportunity for Israel to prevent such. The same applies to their insistence to have their ports open and is the essential demand of the flotillas which regularly attempt to run the blockade which permits Israeli inspection of provisions before passing them on into Gaza. Currently, these inspections usually take under twenty-four hours with most provisions passed through the same day as they arrive. Stopping the so-called humanitarian supplies is another means of harming Hamas as any provisions which the terrorists do not have to expend funds on is simply more money for terrorism. Israel has permitted on several occasions for building supplies to be permitted into Gaza which should have rebuilt all the damages from the wars. Almost nothing has been rebuilt as these building provisions have been used for building bunkers, tunneling networks, underground rocket firing positions and infiltration tunnels. It has been figured that Hamas could have build several schools and apartment buildings with the materials used in a single infiltration tunnel. Multiply that by the dozens of tunnels and all of Gaza could have been made immaculate instead of remaining in ruins. There are literally two Gaza’s, the one where Hamas leadership lives and the one where they place their rockets and mortar positions knowing that return fire will destroy the area surrounding the position (see images below). This is why we have often suggested that instead of return fire solely on the launch site, but also lobbing a small artillery round at a single target in the thus far pristine regions and start allowing the difficulties caused by this constant state of war to be shared by those responsible. The reality is that each rocket fired into Israel, every balloon launched into Israel, every kite carrying explosives into Israel and every tunnel dug under the border into Israel all originated with the leadership of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. We may find that some rounds of violence from Gaza may have been ordered even further away in Iran which opens up a plethora of future possibilities.

 

The Two Gazas with One Pristine and the Other Ravaged

The Two Gazas with One Pristine and the Other Ravaged

 

The entire Arab Israeli conflict will have only one of two eventual results. The obvious one is no more Israel, something much of the world appears not only willing but anxious to bring about, and the other is a defeat brought forth by Israel such that no Arab for a thousand years would even give a glancing evil look in the direction of Israel out of fear for their life. Such results have historic precedence. In almost every case where the Arab forces have been prevented from extending their rule further has been as the result of a military defeat which was unequivocally severe and ubiquitous for preventing their reorganization and returning to attack again. Such defeats in history include but are not limited to the Battle of Tours, the Spanish Inquisition, the ending of the Second Siege of Vienna when Polish King John III Sobieski relieved Vienna bringing his entire army south for the effort after reaching agreements with his neighboring countries to not invade while his forces performed this holy duty, and of course World War I marked the end of the Ottoman Empire. Granted, Israel will not be required to go to such extents but the world will still howl as if Israel had committed a war crime unprecedented in human history.

 

Never mind that virtually every battle and war before the modern era would have constituted a litany of war crimes committed by both sides as making warfare a more benign action is a recent insanity. This has led to the concept of proportionality, which President Trump just used to justify his recall of the strike upon Iran. There has never been any war where proportionality was utilized by either side, let alone the victorious side. The overriding use of force in warfare has been an attempt at imposing disproportional damages, casualties and defeats upon the enemy. Some small examples of such acts of disproportionality include the nuclear bombing of Nagasaki and Hiroshima at the end of World War II, the Rape of Nanking by Japan in World War II, the Bataan Death March during World War II, the Shoah extermination of over twelve-million undesirables by the Nazis in death camps, the use of poison gas during World War I, the entrance of the machine gun (Gatling gun) in the American Civil War, the Roman conquests, the Greek conquests, the Persian conquests and on throughout history warfare has been a contest of which side was capable of imposing the greater amount of disproportionality inflicted upon their enemies. Whenever proportionality is used, it is usually to impose severe constraints on one side preventing them from actually defeating the threat facing them. This is the main reason for its use all but exclusively against Israel. There were no intents at proportionality in the recent efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Balkans or any of the conflicts which have taken place since World War II which brought in the modern era with concepts of war crimes, crimes against humanity and proportionality as the means of preventing wars from reaching actual conclusive endings which has served to actually prolong conflicts as since neither side was able to inflict a complete defeat using disproportional force after their enemy was defeated but refusing to surrender, their having to stop due to world pressures only led to the conflict resuming at a later date leading to far more damage and higher casualties than had the initial efforts been permitted to reach a permanent solution. The other thing which we have noted is that proportionality has only been demanded from nations considered to be Western nations. This has been applied to India in their running conflict over Casmir against Pakistan. There were some who were worried that during the period that India had nuclear warheads and Pakistan did not, that India might actually use these weapons to impose finality on their conflict with Pakistan. Unamusingly, once Pakistan also had nuclear weapons this fear of their use bringing on a disproportional end to the conflict dissolved and was never equaled by the fear of a nuclear war breaking out and both sides decimating the other’s civilian populations in many of their major cities. But evidenced by the virtual universal use of disproportionality is the United States coming in second and Israel the easy winner as virtually every action taken by Israel is condemned for being disproportional. There have been people and groups who have bemoaned the fact that Israelis are being saved by the Iron Dome and Gazans have no such system; thus, they have demanded that Israel provide Hamas with the Iron Dome systems. This is the end result of the logic of proportionality and these are the ends of ridiculousness the world has reached in their hatreds towards the Jewish State. There will be an end to this conflict some day and the world can only pray that Israel proves the victor as any other result will spell doom for the world.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 4, 2019

Israel Facing Challenges but Remains Paralyzed

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:59 AM
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Israel is facing challenges, that is probably one of our biggest understatements. Yahya Sinwar, the current Hamas Leader and former leader of the Hamas Military Wing and one of its founding members and an extremist with zealous hatred for Zionism and Jews, has recently threatened that he would strike Tel Aviv with twice as many rockets should hostilities break out. He paid homage to Iran for providing rocket motors, actual rockets of various sizes, ranges and payloads thanking them profusely. Yahya Sinwar is making threats speaking of what he will do should war break out all the while planning various numbers and types of attacks all in an attempt to murder Israelis, destroy any production, destroy IDF positions hoping to kill or injure Israeli soldiers, launching kites and balloons with incendiary devices attached targeting crop lands, wildlife preserves, forests, kibbutzim, communities and wherever else they strike the ground and a new wrinkle with the introduction of drones dropping relatively large incendiary packets on targets as well as the normal rockets with several-hundred rockets fired about one month ago starting in early May virtually all targeting civilian targets. These were fired in order to disrupt the Eurovision contest in Tel Aviv but fortunately the few rockets fired towards Tel Aviv were intercepted by the Iron Dome systems as were numerous other rockets. Still, despite the great record of the Iron Dome, every system has limits and a few rockets reached targets destroying some structures including homes with at least one person killed and a number wounded with others suffering shock requiring treatment. These Hamas and Islamic Jihad attacks have struck kindergartens, pre-schools, residential areas, playgrounds and other similar civilian targets and almost none targeting anything of a military nature such as IDF bases or positions. So, Yahya Sinwar is threatening to strike more civilian targets and perhaps attempt a rocket swarm attack on Tel Aviv in an attempt to guarantee some rockets strike the city as if he were the one on the defense and not as being the one responsible for instigating conflict and violence. Reporting, as the article above, will use titles and writing like, “Israel launches strikes after hundreds of rockets fired from Gaza,” implying that Israel fires first and only after reporting about Israel striking, do they report that Israel fired in response to attacks and not instigating them.

 

Then there is the Iranian armed and trained army in southern Lebanon and engaged in Syria in the form of Hezballah. This terrorist force has estimated at least one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles of various sizes, ranges, payloads and targeting abilities. The image below depicts some of the rockets and missiles Hezballah used during the last conflict and is not a complete reflection of their current capabilities which have been augmented and improved with many of their rockets given guidance upgraded into missiles. Two reports based on Israeli intelligence reveal the GPS-guidance upgrades meant to improve the rockets’ accuracy, have been provided by Iran using the IRGC. The lower map shows the underground locations of the facilities, where the guidance packages were added to rockets transforming them into guided missiles, located close to the Beirut International Airport, the location of these systems being imported. This was amongst other signs that Iran is upgrading Hezballah capabilities which implies that either these upgraded weapons are for use in the Syrian civil war or Iran has plans for another war along the Israeli northern border. This was further suggested when IDF units discovered infiltration tunnels from Lebanon into northern Israel ranging in length, depth and sophistication implying their improved technology being provided leading to the more advanced deeper tunnels (bottom picture showing inside one tunnel). With Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezballah all linked to Iran and taking their orders from Tehran, as Hamas admitted the latest rocket attacks were ordered by the Iranian government, the worst case scenario where Israel would face terrorist attacks from all three groups forcing Israel to defend both the northern and southern borders simultaneously is growing more and more inevitable. Currently, Hamas is making the loudest threats, but that does not rule out Hezballah also taking part in any new aggressions against Israel.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

Hezbollah’s Secret Sites for Conversion of Inaccurate Rockets into Precision Guided Missiles
 

 

Hezballah Infiltration Tunnel

Hezballah Infiltration Tunnel

 

 

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif recently took shots at Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, claiming he has failed to protect Israel, Tweeting, “A few Arab rulers believe that if they follow Netanyahu, they’ll be able to achieve their illusions. But Netanyahu has failed to protect Israel, despite his Iron Dome, so how can he protect THEM?” Additionally, Iran held Al-Quds Day rallies replete with chants against the Saudi royal family, the Islamic State group mingled with the traditional cries of “Death to Israel” and “Death to America.” There was also the apparently mandatory burning of American and Israel flags along with effigies of President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. Quoting from the article, “Death to the House of Saud and Daesh (IS),” demonstrators chanted. “Death to America,” “Death to Israel,” and “Death to the UK.” Well, guess we should be honored to have such distinguished list of other nations with which Iran apparently is having their difficulties, though we were unaware of their problems with the UK as they are still signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Still, much of the reporting will only include their animosity towards Israel and President Trump.

 

The Iranian threat to the world should not be ignored as it is a real threat to begin a horrific war using every weapon at their disposal which we fear includes a fair number of nuclear warheads and missiles with the range and targeting accuracy to cause major damage to all in the Middle East and into Northern Africa with direct threats against Saudi Arabia along with her Gulf States allies as well as Egypt, Jordan and Israel. Iran has also mastered launching ballistic missiles with over a thousand-mile ranges out of cargo ships where the missiles are hidden under what appear to be containers and freight packaging. The number of these ships so outfitted is unknown as well as their registration and nation of origins. Iran could easily utilize any of their allies’ cargo vessels for such purpose which would imply that they might have such missile launching ships licensed with Venezuela, Iraq, North Korea, Libya, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia or any of several other allies as well as any nation with loose regulatory control over ship licenses. Simply put, Iranian cargo vessels with concealed ballistic missiles could have almost any national flag from amongst the many options making detecting them even more difficult. Such ballistic missiles could have any of a number of warheads ranging from high explosive and incendiary all the way to chemical or biological warheads or potentially nuclear or EMP warheads which cause damage beyond most countries ability to repair or even survive. Add to the equation that Iran sent a naval fleet intending to station the ships for a few months as an intended threat and as a message to President Trump that America is not as safe as perhaps he thinks.

 

Meanwhile, many in the media and those with a distinctly leftist political view will claim that all the problems in the Middle East, if not the world, are directly traceable to Israel while ignoring Iran. All one needs do to realize the truth is look around the Middle East and look at who has fighters there, be they terrorist provided for by Iran or their IRGC foreign fighters. In Lebanon there is what has to be considered a terror army in Hezballah. Move across to Syria and there are Hezballah fighters and IRGC units. Moving on to Yemen and the two, Hezballah and the IRGC, are both involved here as well. Then there is the Tri-border region where Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay have a common border and all three blame the other two for the problems in the region (see picture below). Iran has also used the Houthis and their assisting IRGC and Hezballah forces in Yemen to launch rockets into Saudi Arabia including into Riyadh, the Saudi capital city. Iran is set on establishing their Shiite Crescent across the Middle East as pictured in the lower picture below. While Israel addresses threats on her borders not needing to seek more problems outside of Israel, Iran can be found across the Middle East operating either using IRGC units or terrorist entities they control from Iran across Iraq, into Syria and Lebanon while in a southern region we find Iranian influence in Yemen. This view of the region should dispel any illusions concerning which nation is spreading threats and conflicts across the Middle East with views on expanding further and that the nation in question is not Israel but instead is Iran. Iran is currently threatening to expand their efforts into Saudi Arabia and Israel while also ignoring the American warnings about Iranian aggressions, particularly those along the waterways where commerce and oil flow to the world and the Iranian threats to shipping through the Straits of Hormuz as well as threatening the United States Naval vessels in the region. The only question is exactly how far will Iran need to push the United States before President Trump will finally decide that they have crossed a red-line and are deserving of American wrath. Just as Hamas will probably cross beyond the limit of Israeli patience, Iran will push beyond American patience forcing a confrontation or worse. Something ugly is approaching this summer, and it will be decided upon by the Mullahs of Iran.

 

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994 bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

 

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 22, 2019

Iranian Threats Must be Taken Deadly Seriously

 

Many in the Western World will claim that we should take threats made by Iran with a large measure of salt. Their reasoning is that no sane leader would risk such destruction upon their nation, its infrastructure and especially its people. We could not argue with this reasoning as no sane leader would risk such destruction. There are two slight problems with this reasoning as it has been applied to Iran. First is that the Ayatollahs, especially the most important Ayatollah, the Supreme Leader, do not believe that the United States would risk war with Iran because they believe they hold the same belief that President Trump is bluffing and would not risk the destruction Iran believes they could inflict upon the United States. This brings us to something which is necessary for going any further in this standoff review.

 

First, we will look at the United States and what they might be capable of inflicting upon Iran. The United States has replaced the aircraft carrier group in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean, as the former group had been rotated to their home port, plus another carrier group in the eastern Mediterranean in addition to the fleet normally in the Mediterranean. Further, the United States has repositioned an entire B-52 Wing stationed in the region in the American base in Qatar. The aircraft carrier group was already scheduled for positioning and is not an additional deployment and as thus is merely part of the rotation of naval forces. The main additional threat is the B-52 Wing which provides some heavy bombers which are nuclear capable and can also carry the MOAB (Massive Ordinance Air Blast) nicknamed the Mother of all Bombs due to its size. This ordinance is a supersized Daisey Cutter and has an equivalence of eleven tons TNT forming a blast radius of one mile in every direction from the detonation point. Even using normative bombs, the B-52 specialty is performing what is called carpet bombing destroying large swaths of a region the plane overflies. The additional item is the B-52’s fly in formations in which one of the aircraft is what is called an electronics plane which specializes in jamming radars, giving false radar returns of additional B-52 Wings miles away from the actual group, diverting anti-aircraft missiles of numerous varieties and other electronic means for defending the wing. The naval forces America has within range of Iran includes a number of missile cruisers and frigates which have numerous varieties of missiles and warheads including nuclear warheads. But all of these are items the Iranians are fully aware but one has to wonder what the United States has in the region which Iran does not have when forming their equation. With any naval fleet there are some selection of submarines stationed within range of the fleet and even within the fleet to augment their abilities. There could be attack submarines which could assist with intercepting ships, including fast ships, and also could pass discreetly into the Persian Gulf. Then there is a possibility of submarines carrying missiles including what are called Boomers which carry nuclear missiles. Between the numerous assets the United States has advertised they have placed in the regions around Iran are sufficient to eradicate targets throughout Iran from specific targets to entire metropolitan regions and do so with conventional weapons. We are taking it on faith that the United States would not resort to the use of nuclear weapons except under the most serious of provocations.

 

Now, for the Iranian side of the equation which is less well defined. There is one wild card in the Iranian equation which is totally dependent upon the current location of the fleet they claimed to have deployed for stationing in the western region of the North Atlantic Ocean specifically to situate itself along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States. Of course, Iran has not stated that they intend to attack the United States mainland but has threatened the American naval assets in their region. The main threat coming from the Iranians is that should they come under attack, any attack by any country, they will completely destroy Israel immediately thereafter. Their threats have included the intent to use nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction such as biological or chemical weapons. Iran would not need to launch a single missile, launch aircraft to bomb Israel, they simply can send the order to their terror forces in the region to launch all-out attacks on Israel and sit back and watch. So, what are the forces and what are their weapons they might use. The one many people are already familiar with are Islamic Jihad, a direct arm of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), as well as Hamas to attack Israel with various rockets which are capable of striking near Jerusalem and the entirety of the Tel Aviv metropolitan region all the way to Haifa in the north and possibly bring down some of the skyscrapers in the center of Tel Aviv all from Gaza. That would likely be the Iranian opening strike in order to entangle Israel and the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) in Gaza in the south. Then, after two or three days waiting for the IDF to be forced to become fully involved with the Iranian terror extension in Gaza. Then Iran would unleash their main force in the region out of Syria and Lebanon backed by whatever IRGC forces they might have stationed in Syria, that being Hezballah. Hezballah has approximately one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles of varying sizes and ranges. Their largest can strike all of Israel and beyond with very large warheads including biological and chemical warheads and, if they have them, nuclear warheads (see map below).

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

Hezballah also has access to the entirety of the Lebanese military weapons. These weapons include numerous Russian tanks, armored vehicles and anti-tank missiles as well as American Abrams Main Battle Tanks, armored vehicles and helicopters as well as whatever Iran has been capable of smuggling to the Hezballah terrorist army, and it is an army, make no mistake about that. Additionally, Hezballah has dug an unknown number of tunnels under the Israeli border to use as an intricate part of their invasion plans in addition to the tunnels and bunkers they have spread over southern Lebanon across the entirety of Lebanon below the Litany River. Any assault by Hezballah would initially be a massive firing of rockets with the hope that when Israeli Air Force arrives to end the barrage that they will be able to use the anti-aircraft missiles they probably possess. There have been rumors that Hezballah has been equipped with the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft systems as well as shoulder fired anti-aircraft missiles such as MANPADS and Stinger Missiles. At some point the Hezballah Army and the IDF would engage. The plan from Iran is that after forcing the IDF to engage with Islamic Jihad and Hamas and other terrorist groups operating in Gaza, then Israel would not have top-line elite forces left to engage their main force from in Lebanon supported out of Syria. Their thinking may or may not be valid. That may be mistaken as Israel could alter their normal division of forces and use weapons which Israel has normally deployed. Then again, Israel has not been required to engage with Gaza and Hezballah at the same time. There is one means to which Israel could resort which she normally does not use. No, we are not talking about nuclear weapons or any other weapons of mass destruction. Israel also has missiles, very accurate missiles with various warheads. What kinds of warheads? The normal answer to this question is, if we told you we would have to kill you, but that is too trite. Israel has the normal range of warheads of any first-world nations which include EMP (both nuclear and conventional), high explosive, incendiary, fuel-air (thermobaric) and various others including nuclear should such an exchange become necessary.

 

But what else would such an attack cause? Israel has stated that should Hezballah attack that Iran would not be spared. Iran definitely has S-300 and potentially has S-400 Russian anti-aircraft and missile systems. How sophisticated are the Israeli missiles? We know they are accurate and that they include advanced cruise missiles but the cruise missiles would require being launched from aircraft or naval vessels closer to Iran to be within their range. Israeli aircraft are almost exclusively fighter jets whose range would not permit any extended time over targets in order to reach Iran unless they were granted landing rights from a nation between Israel and Iran. Releasing the name of any Arab or Islamic nation which might have agreed to give Israeli fighters landing rights if necessary was the method by which President Obama kept Israel from inhibiting the Iranian production of nuclear weapons. Things have changed, or so we are led to believe. That will remain to be seen as time reveals what will become history.

 

What is frightening for Israelis, Iranians and potentially far beyond even to the United States is what follows a war between the United States and Iran in the Middle East. Such a war would immediately escalate to include Israel almost immediately. The entirety of the Israeli anti-missile systems would be tested to or beyond its ability, we can merely pray that it is up to the task as Iran has intimated that she would launch as many nuclear tipped missiles as it would take to get at least two of them through the Israeli defenses as they believe that would be sufficient to completely wipe Israel from the map. This begs the question as to exactly what it would take to prove that Iran had launched a nuclear tipped missile at Israel simply from the remains of the successful interception of such a missile. Would sufficient crucial pieces remain which could be used to prove such a case? Would anybody actually believe any proof Israel provided? What would result from such an exchange?

 

Well, the answer is that nothing would change and Iran would not be decimated while Israel might remain. So, for argument’s sake we will assume Israel also survives any such conflict. The very first thing would be the condemnation of the United Nations General Assembly of Israel demanding that Israel cease their hostile and unprovoked attacks. Then would come the various agencies of the United Nations followed by a litany of nations largely from the Group of 77, the coalition of one-hundred-thirty-four developing nations which have mostly followed the Arab and Muslim worlds blindly and thus will gleefully condemn Israel and exonerate Iran and turn on the United States if given any chance to do so. The chance that such a conflict would widen into a greater conflagration is actually small. There exists a possible path should Russia get involved and side with Iran. First thing is that Russia and Iran (Persia) have a long and violent history of ill wills. Russia is favorable to Israel as first, there are a large number of Russians in Israel, second, they admire what Israel has accomplished and third, Russia wants no part of a conflict with any nuclear capable nation with advanced missiles and pinpoint guidance systems. Fortunately, the majority of the Arab world being Sunni Muslims and untrusting of Persian, especially when they are Shiite, will simply wait any war involving Iran out unless attacked by Iran. We can assume that any nation which may end up fighting Iran will not be concerned with engaging the Arabs world as well. So, as long as Russia stands aside there will be little chance of this war widening beyond Iran, the United States and Israel. Nobody else wishes to have a dog in this fight and to be honest, Israel would love nothing more than to sit any and all future wars out.

 

 

The best solution to this would be the United States and Iran talking and making a new deal, but there has been some bad blood from the United States withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) and demanding a renegotiation in which the terms would be far less advantageous for Iran. The Ayatollahs, specifically Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei who is the one who believes he got sand kicked into his face by President Donald Trump. This is something that Supreme Leaders, Kings, Emperors and other dictators take very badly and tend to react violently. We may find the answer as to whether the Supreme Leader Khamenei was serious about sacrificing the people and nation of Iran in order to destroy Israel and the United States or was he blowing smoke to try and appear more powerful. Iran is rated as the fourteenth most powerful military with Israel two spaces behind at sixteenth. Of course, Russia is rates second, China third and the United States was first, of course. The pivotal individual in this entire imbroglio is the Iranian Supreme Leader and those with influence in his decision-making processes. This includes the Council of Experts, a group of senior Imams, Ayatollahs, who are responsible for appointing Supreme Leaders and advising them, the Iranian President and their Parliament, though the elected individuals have far less input than the Ayatollahs as they are merely elected by the people, even though the Assembly of Experts also decide who is permitted to run for office. In the end, it will be the top Ayatollahs who will be more likely to simply agree with whatever the Supreme Leader decides. The problem is he is the one who likely feels he has been insulted directly by President Trump. There may be an attack upon the United States naval forces which will lead to a serious conflagration which we can only hope never does include nuclear weapons, no matter whose weapons they may be. In the end, it will be what Iran desires, peace or war.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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