Beyond the Cusp

December 9, 2013

Northeastern Saudi and Eastern Gulf Oil Fields the New Sudetenland

Once Iran has successfully attained their nuclear weapons credentials the world will begin to see their long-term plans. The presumption that first thing Iran will do once they have a deliverable nuclear weapon is attack Israel is highly doubtful. One reason is that the leadership uses the Israel issue to explain away any difficulties experienced by their society by claiming that it is a result of evil perpetrated by the Zionists. The Iranian threats against America are equally simply propaganda they feed the people to give them an external target.  Iran also knows that if they should attack either Israel or the United States that the price they would pay would be beyond anything their society could survive. Even if an Iranian attack on Israel was completely successful it would not prevent a return strike even if that strike had to originate from Israeli submarines weeks later or even months later, that strike would still decimate Iran. Any retaliation from the United States after an Iranian attack, well, I doubt there needs to be any comment on the ferocity with which the United States would respond if they were hit in numerous locations by an Iranian nuclear first strike. So, that leaves the question that if Iran is not developing a nuclear threat capability for Israel or the United States, then why go through all the sanctions and other difficulties as well as the expense of the program itself.


Iran is not seeking a nuclear arsenal with which to dominate the world, at least not initially, and they are not seeking to destroy the United States or Israel, but they do want to make anybody who might intervene on the real Iranian plans to have the doubt of attacking a nuclear armed nation to consider before they move to control the Middle East and its oil reserves. The first target the Iranians would most likely make some inroads upon would be the nations along the eastern rim of the Saudi Peninsula, especially those with sizeable Shiite populations. Those would include Bahrain with a population that is 70% Shiite, Kuwait with a population that is 25% Shiite, United Arab Emirates with a population approaching 20% Shiite and lastly the northeastern oil fields of Saudi Arabia where the majority of Saudi Shiites reside and where they are a clear majority. There could potentially be calls from the Shiite populations within these areas for their repatriation with Shiite Iran much the same as was done by the Sudetenland and their repatriation into Nazi Germany after the signing of the Munich Agreement of 1938 by which France and Britain sacrificed northern Czechoslovakia to placate Hitler and presumably forgo any possibility of a war. The same eventuality will result if the Western allies turn their backs on Saudi Arabia and the other nations which might come under threat from Iran and allow these lands to be sacrificed giving in to Iran simply to avoid testing a nuclear power and presumably avoid a very horrid war. The result would be that by handing Iran control over the vast majority of the Middle East oil reserves would result in energy blackmail being the new Iranian economic weapon through which they would seek hegemony over an ever increasing area of the world. Eventually their appetite would become obviously insatiable and the continued surrendering to their demand unsustainable thus eventually leading to war but where the Iranians would possesses a far greater ability and strength due to the weakness shown by mostly the Western powers who were doing whatever they could to avoid that very same war when it was easily winnable. This result is only achievable in a case where the United States is in an isolationist mode or a period of weakness where the President has taken a position of avoiding any foreign entanglements and has defaulted on the United States presumed responsibility to act as the leader of the free world. What it would take is an American President who would solely lead from behind and allow others to take the initiative while the United States sat on the sidelines and watched.


This exact scenario would explain why the Iranians were willing to suffer the sanctions no matter the difficulties even to an extreme level simply in order to complete their nuclear weapons program before the United States changed its people in the leadership of the country. The reason they were able to come and negotiate the recent agreement were twofold, first they knew that with the reelection of President Obama they had another four years of an American military superpower in remission and unlikely to interfere with any Iranian plans and secondly they also knew that President Obama wanted an agreement which would allow him to concentrate fully on his Administration’s primary areas of concern, the fundamental transformation of the United States into just another overstretched, overtaxed, over-indebted socialist nation which is undistinguishable from any nation in the European Union. The final steps are in the works with the soon to be offered solution to the failure that is Obamacare, a single payer government healthcare system along with the other final touches which include a higher than reasonable minimum wage (also called a living wage), guaranteed minimum salary even for those who are unemployed through permanent unemployment insurance and other social safety nets, a scaled down military which is understaffed, undertrained, and underfunded making it unable to do more than patrol the waters and skies domestically and have virtually zero projection of force capabilities. Iran has seen what the United States is transforming into and they are counting of just this transformation to allow them to step up in the not so distant future and become a world power equal or better equipped than the United States and with more energy reserves after annexing the Saudi Arabian oilfields and with only China as a foreseeable equal. Iran will first try to become the superpower of the Muslim World, then of the Middle East and North Africa, then of everything west of China and eventually vying for hegemony of the Americas. This sounds preposterous but probably so did a nuclear powered North Korea and next a nuclear armed Iran, who or what next is anybody’s guess. Should Saudi Arabia be allocated a nuclear deterrent by Pakistan, as is their informal agreement under which the Saudis financed the Pakistani nuclear weapons program after India tested their initial nuclear weapon, then the entire shooting match between Iran and Saudi Arabia could become the stage for a truly frightening game of brinkmanship with both sides trying to make the other blink, and then hold on to your hats. That has the potential of turning very ugly very fast and the repercussions are as unpredictable as they can get. Perhaps bowing to Iran as was the case in the recent Geneva agreement was the fateful rolling of the dice and one is still spinning while the other came up a one, a second one means snake-eyes, everybody loses.


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