Iran plus Korea Update

 

Iranian protests against economic stagnation, disinterest of the government placing foreign wars they chose above its people and against an oppressive regime which strangles their youth and their desires to be free and live as they choose. There have been over two or three dozen already murdered and many hundreds arrested with a good number of those likely to never be seen again and the only reaction from the government has been to televise pro-government demonstrations which were more likely than not staged using IRGC* and Basij Militias members who are a small minority of the nations but extremely loyal to the regime. Both organizations are religiously fanatical as is the government. The Iranian top leadership is made up of religious clerics, the Mullahs, who hand pick who are permitted to run for elected office thus making their appearance of democracy merely that, appearance. Nobody who would work against the Mullahs and their program of continuing the revolution spreading it at every opportunity to the remainder of the world would ever be permitted to stand for election to office. Worse yet, the elected officials also would be fully supportive of any measures the Mullahs and the Supreme Leader decide are necessary to end the protests including mass shootings of demonstrators in the streets. That is the point where many would really be interested in exactly how far President Trump and the United States might go should this become reality and hundreds, if not thousands or tens of thousands were to be gunned down on the streets of Iran.

 

The first thing to remember is that President Trump was elected largely on his domestic policy promises of curbing immigration and economic improvement through tax reform and regulations rollback. As we might recall, his slogan was “Make America Great Again” or MAGA. That is completely separate from intervening or making threats simply to prevent Iran from putting an end to internal protests which the government has already blamed on Israel and the United States claiming that the CIA and Mossad are the leaders implementing and fomenting the protest in an attempt to derail the revolution which is the core principle under which the Iranian regime operates. What it comes down to is would the United States actually resort to use of arms to prevent further regime violent pushback against the protests. Our best guess is as such, beyond what President Trump would be willing to authorize, he would first instead attempt to get United Nations Security Council to enact enforceable sanctions on Iran and, lacking that, placing United States sanctions and attempting to get other allies to also impose sanctions. As far as Security Council sanctions are concerned, after the United States veto of the Security Council vote to forbid nations from placing their embassies in Jerusalem and condemning President Trump recognizing Jerusalem making it an international city under United Nations protection from Israeli overreach, we could probably count on Russia using their veto to protect Iran from the mean United States and possibly even adding that the United States move was being taken to serve Israeli interests and nothing more. As far as getting European countries to join in sanctions, at best a few of the eastern Europeans might join in sanctions and otherwise, at best, the British might also join but Germany, France and the remainder of the European Union have Euros in their eyes when they visualize Iran and are too self-absorbed in taking advantage of monetary opportunities to join in sanctioning their potential money pit. United States sanctions of and by themselves would have little if any effect on Iran and would do little to prevent them from doing as they please, even to slaughtering the protesters en-masse, in ending the protests against the government.

 

Even if President Trump in normal times in a normal world wanted to prevent the murder of the protesters, he would need to be extremely wary of intervening as such actions would inevitably result in war. The citizens of the United States did not elect President Trump to get them into another war in the Middle East and the quickest way to assure that he would be a one term President would be to engage in another Middle East war. The United States electorate would hold him responsible and in 2020 they would elect almost anybody other than Donald Trump were he to cause a war with Iran. Further, President Trump has enough on his plate with North Korea and a looming potential for a war on that front, and even that war would be a difficult sell. The main reason that a war with North Korea might be more palatable to the United States people is Kim Jong-Un is an identifiable threat and has been pressing all the wrong buttons challenging the United States almost calling them every derogatory name in the book and despite many of those names being directed at Trump, they have not been received well by the United States voters. The United States has danced this dance with leaders from North Korea for years with each go around costing more than the previous and they are willing to risk war rather than give in to blustering blackmail. For a parallel one need look to the Barbary Pirates who would sell protection for sailors and then still kidnap United States sailors off merchant ships to ransom with along with the constantly rising price demanded for protection finally drove even President Thomas Jefferson, a devout isolationist as far as wars were concerned, to declare war on the Barbary Pirates and their respective Caliphs. North Korea is very likely approaching a similar point with the United States currently and if they push too hard, they may get something they really had not bargained for.

 

President Trump likely has little desire to enter into any wars. Iran probably is not prepared to fight a war with the United States at this moment. China does not desire to war with the United States in particular. Japan very much desires to avoid any costly wars, as their financial situation is quite precarious and just recently starting to recover. Kim Jong-Un, despite his bluster, would likely prefer to live a long life. Russian President Putin is seeking some means of extricating himself out of the war raging in Syria while retaining his naval bases on the Mediterranean Sea. Europe could not fight a meaningful war even if it was brought to their shores. Turkish President Erdoğan is prepared to fight the Kurds in order to extend his domain but is not prepared to go beyond such. Even Israel’s neighbors are not seeking an active war with Israel with Hamas settling to toss a rocket or two out of Gaza each week and Hezballah already stretched to the breaking point between Syria, Yemen and retaining control in Lebanon. Egypt has barely sufficient taste for conflict to hold its cities in the Sinai Peninsula while terrorist groups mass there for future conflict, and even they are looking towards future and hoping Egypt does not feel its hand pushed too far and react against their hold on the area. So why is North Korea‘s Kim Jong-Un testing ICBM’s and other missiles as well as nuclear weapons? Why has Japan altered the Japanese Constitution to allow them, for the first time since World War II, to increase their armaments, military size and is debating the development, which means using the technology they already possess, of nuclear weapons intended as a deterrent? Why is Iran instigating conflicts across the Middle East in Iraq, Syria and Yemen while developing ever-longer range ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons and possibly even building stockpiles of such weapons? Why has there been all the chest thumping between Kim Jong-Un and President Trump with the most recent round on Twitter being an exchange of Tweets about their nuclear button size on one another’s desk? Why is Iran once again pressing an internal conflict followed by the world to the point where sanction may very well be imposed once again? None of these acts signals a world seeking completely peaceful solution to their problems both internal and external. The two most dangerous, currently, are Iran and North Korea as we mentioned just the other day. So, why not take one last look at them and their pressing all the wrong buttons with the United States and why.

 

First North Korea, as it may be the less complicated situation currently. Kim Jong-Un did take an unexpected move and respond to urgings from the newly elected South Korean President Moon Jae-in, elected this past May of 2017, for binational talks to defuse the building tensions emanating from North Korea. The danger is that these talks fail to resolve the international situation while South Korea, currently in a mood to redress past grievances and mending fences while absolving differences. There is even some mood to sacrifice in order to reunify the Korean Peninsula should a proper and beneficial proposition be presented, though the possibilities of this are next to nil. The problem is the unknown and unpredictable results of these talks. Fears are that North Korea will press for reunification with some form of unity governance headed by Kim Jong-Un which South Korea would be foolish to permit. Almost as bad an omen would be for North Korea to offer to curb their missile tests and nuclear testing and development in exchange for aid running in the tens if not thousands of billions of dollars to be paid largely by the United States in exchange for a treaty and an end to this round of extortion. Such a demand could not come at a worse opportunity as President Trump is unlikely to swallow such a demand quietly and would likely enter into a very dangerous game of chicken with Kim Jong-Un which, with the slightest miscalculation, results in an open conflict potentially nuclear in nature. Such a conflict would have the immediate consequences of the devastation of Seoul and most if not all of South Korea, the destruction of almost all large cities of Japan, and an exchange between the United States responding to the attacks by North Korea where North Korea would also cease to be recognizable while a number of United States major cities would end up destroyed or worse, a Super EMP detonation over Kansas City area wiping out the North American electrical grid potentially destroying over half of the main transformers upon which the grid is dependent. What would follow would very likely be extremely destructive for much of the world should China, Russia or anyone else left standing decide it was time to strike while the irons of war were hot only to run afoul of the United States submarine nuclear retaliatory forces which are quite formidable and perfectly capable of carrying out countering any threat to the United States, especially the few naval and air bases which would remain to the United States military which is spread across the globe and thus would still be operational even if in a somewhat less formidable manner. When a nation is capable of destroying the entirety of the planet hundreds of times over, even twenty percent force power is sufficient to make anyone hesitate pressing too far.

 

World at War from 1984 by George Orwell

 

Iran, on the other hand, is a completely different kettle of fish. Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei is tasked with the spread of the Grand Islamic Revolution which brought the initial and previous Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Sayyid Ruhollah Mūsavi Khomeini to power after United States President Jimmy Carter refused to defend Shah of Iran Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and actually signaled he should go into exile and allow Khomeini to come to power and out of his exile in Paris. President Carter was quoted as claiming that as a religious man and a cleric that Khomeini would be a man of peace and would bring a reformation to Iran which would be a positive force in settling the Middle East. President Carter really had no clue about Shiite Islam or Islam in general. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution is responsible for keeping the faith and extending the revolution, as it is called, by which in time two events will result. The first is that the Islamic world will bow to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and see him as the Strong Horse and the Sunni Muslims will largely convert to Shia Islam rather than be put to the sword. Once the world of Islam has been conquered by the true Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, then the remainder of the world can be brought under the flag of Islam and Sharia Shiite style. This will lead to a world in conflagration which is believed to be when the Mahdi will appear and protest his being revealed to the world as explained by Nu’aym ibn Hammad who stated, “The Mahdi will not come until one third die, one third are killed, and one third remain.” One can only imagine a world which meets those criteria. This is the far vision each Iranian Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution must adhere. This is not meant to claim that the present Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei desires to force such a world into being, but that does not mean that he would be reluctant to take any position which could result in the coming of the Mahdi. The eventual aim of the Iranian version of Shiite Islam is the coming of the Mahdi and the submission of what remains of the world to Allah through Shiite Islam with no other religion permitted on Earth. Still, Iran is not ready to take on the world and this attempt to reach this desired aim to subjugate the world with it suffering two-thirds of human life snuffed from existence in a great conflict, but once they believe they have reached such a threshold, then will come a conflagration unparalleled in known human history. There are some who point to evidence that some form of humankind existed which were more advanced than our technology today and were involved in a great cataclysm ending their civilization and humankind went through an extended era where the knowledge returning to a more primitive humankind and we are only now reaching for similar technologies if not the identical technologies with which our forebearers destroyed themselves. The state of our world today gives such a theory some degree of credence.

 

The frightening reality reached in researching for this article was that we really are about to go beyond the cusp. The only question is beyond which cusp will we go? Many, if not the vast majority, of these choices would have us going beyond the cusp and finding ourselves tumbling into a deep and endless chasm and taking all of our so-called civilization with us into oblivion. There are a few narrow choices where going beyond the cusp leads the human race into the stars and eventually to a space filled initially with peace and beyond that depends on what we encounter. If we will be destined to meet extraterrestrial intelligent entities, we can only pray that they are peaceful and willing to share knowledge, technologies and the arts which make their hearts soar. But first, we will be required to get our own houses in order and eschew violence as the means of settling our differences. Truth be told, our differences are minor compared to what we may find in the stars, so we had best learn how to handle our petty differences first and foremost, then we can find the best means of coexisting or merging everything into a set of universal truths which are inclusive and satisfactory to all establishing ideals as close to the real truth as we are able. The truth is that our knowledge will never be capable of understanding the entirety of the Universe as much, if not the vast majority, will remain beyond that which we can see and every minute we spend trapped as we are in this one solar system, the less and less we will ever have revealed will represent. Human curiosity is a strange beast which will insist on seeing what is around the next bend, beyond the horizon, and comes tomorrow and tomorrow in endless succession and finally, why all of these things exist and where they came from. But for now, can we at least survive without destroying civilization until we colonize another planet orbiting a different parent star. Such an accomplishment would promise survivability to the human race. After such has been achieved, then we can place starter colonies jumping from one star to the next setting up workable colonies which can grow into entirely new civilization but which will share their advancements with the rest of humankind and perhaps also other intelligent species we should meet, assuming that such exist. So, let us proceed forward and pray we choose wisely and do not falter or find ourselves at the brink of extinction with no way to prevent going beyond the cusp and falling to our deaths and as such our failings.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

* IRGC = Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

 

Can There Ever Be Trust Again?

 

Despite what is being written and stated by much of the media in the United States, Germany and across the remainder of Europe by the media, there must be some relieved leaders and military commanders in much of Europe and in the Sunni states of MENA and, of course, Israel to have the United States reaching out to many of her more traditional allies. The United States had its nervous breakdown, where anybody that was perceived by the administration under President Obama of being or supporting European colonialization or could be guilty of privilege were considered as an enemy who had to be belittled and brought low, and the winner of the lottery of life ended up being an ally who despised the same nations as President Obama’s White House, which was Iran. This became an obsession and was to become the pinnacle of President Obama’s foreign policy to equal his domestic policy of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. The wonderful result is both will have equally horrific results. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act will cause economic disruptions and will probably force a number of smaller health insurance companies out of business. His Iran nuclear deal, the Parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Program, will have far deeper reaching effects which may potentially be far more horrific and could cost millions if not billions of lives. It is this foreign policy which will have the farthest reaching of all effects and some of these may present themselves as desirable.

 

There will be some people making noise about a Sunni-Israel alliance which might even join as an appendage to NATO. The NATO talk is pure hyperbole. The Sunni-Israel alliance will be make or break on two specific realities; the first being any demands for Israel to permit an Arab state, especially if the requirement is to use the pre-Six Day War lines, the 1949 Armistice lines from the Jordanian front and especially if it requires relinquishing half of Jerusalem, and second on the next President after President Trump leaves office, especially if that President should be a Democrat similar in ways to Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

 

The first condition, especially if it should include anything concerning relinquishing parts of Jerusalem, could be a complete dead end and thus no cooperation except in the most dire situations. Israel cannot permit the return to those borders under any circumstance and anyone demanding Israel do so will face the stiffest resistance from the people. Even should there be offers of peace treaties with every Sunni nation, Israel should refuse even that offer as peace treaties are about as permanent as marriages in much of the Western world and any divorce on a peace treaty is far more serious than who gets the house and which car and who pays whom how much each month and all the other messy little details. The end of a peace treaty is more often than not war and Israel has seen enough peace treaties grow cold and in the history of the Jews over the past three thousand years, we have seen nations which allowed the Jews refuge willingly and with great fanfare only to chase them away within a few decades but only after murdering some percentage as a lesson. The Jews slaughtered in the Shoah, the Holocaust, were not in Germany or Poland or France or any of the European nations illegally, they were productive members of their societies and many fought for their country valiantly in World War I. Statistics showed the Jews fought in higher percentages than any other religious group, and yet were treated as traitors and dangerous citizens who needed to be exterminated. Trust, for Israel that should be as valuable as diamond, rubies, sapphires, gold, silver, platinum and even more rare than these and that is why Israel need be careful and guarded. We have been a trusting people and yet that trust was regularly betrayed by every power and nation with which the Jews, the Israelites, entered into from the Persians to the Greeks on to this very day. Giving the Arabs yet another state carved from the British Mandate which was to be the Jewish State would be an act of suicide. The Zionists surrendered seventy-eight percent of the British Mandate in order for the British to honor the second half of their World War I obligation to King Feisal allowing both his sons to be granted their own kingdoms, one given Iraq and the other Jordan. This left the Zionists, the Jews with a mere twenty-two percent and ever since the world has been obsessed with taking the remainder from the Jews. If the world desires peace and truth with Israel, the first step is to stop trying to destroy Israel.

 

The Sunni states claim they want the best for the Palestinian Arabs. They claim that the best would be for them to be granted a state with their current governance taking power and leading them. The same people who have stolen billions of dollars and delivered nothing. How about we try to give them something better than the thieves who have all but imprisoned them starting with Yasser Arafat and continuing under Mahmoud Abbas. Maybe the best thing the Sunni states could do is to give the Palestinian Authority leadership including their security commanders permission to keep their ill-gotten gains and move to Qatar or some Sunni state and enjoy the rest of their lives including their children and everyone else who gained from the theft of funds for all these years. Perhaps arrangements could be for them to take up residence in the same row of villas and high scale apartments in Paris with Ms. Arafat. Then they can work with Israel and resettle the Palestinian families throughout the Sunni Arab world after they receive a generous buyout from Israel for their properties and a resettlement incentive from a combined pool of funds from all honestly interested in settling the Palestinian Arab situation. Their leaders do not and never have had their best interests at heart and that is the misfortune they have suffered and that is the misfortune which needs repair, not Israel as many were moved into the lands by Jordan to make facts to use against Israel. That would be a start for winning Israeli trust and making amends for the years of threats and warfare.

 

That should settle the Arab-Israeli conflict and in some means give restitution to both the Arabs who have been victimized by the same people who have victimized Israel. Israel has no animosity against the Arabs in Judea and Samaria, as they are just as much victims of this conflict as the Jews. Once Israel has received the promised lands which are honestly hers under Article 80 of the United Nations Charter, then everyone can move on. That brings us to the future and what could be a promising which could potentially provide a secure future with the nations in the area actually making an honest peace laying all their cards on the table and then having the bravery and even audacity to reach an accord and actually mean every word of their agreements and build trust. Their agreement will need to be backed by the Western world if it is to have any hope, in particular the United States. This brings us to a crucial point, the promises of the United States. We need now to go back to the great Gaza deal made between Israel and the United States to allow the Palestinian Authority to prove their ability to actually form a functioning nation state. Israel was provided a letter which was authorized by both houses of Congress and signed by President George W. Bush and presented to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon with conditions which were to be backed by the Office of the President of the United States spelled in the letter. When President Obama took to the Oval Office he all but immediately reneged on every promise in that letter and the Congress, completely controlled by the Democrat Party, refused to enforce the stipulations in President Bush’s letter which had they chosen to do so by the same margin with which they had endorsed its writing, they could have easily overrode any Presidential veto. This set probably the most disturbing precedent ever in United States history. Now a promise from a President which had all but unanimous consent from Congress is only trustworthy for as long as that President remains in office. Maybe, if the same party of a President is in office the promises would be honored, but even this can no longer be completely trustworthy.

 

This makes any agreement potentially to be made in the Middle East between Israel and the Arab nations, Sunni or Shiite, all but impossible unless Israel is willing to take what would be a huge risk in trusting the Arabs. Thanks to recent history, Israel now knows that they can no longer count on anything the United States promises even in an actual and ratified treaty if a President can decide that they can ignore anything even that which had the complete support of Congress as apparently Congress has no desire to back those things a previous Congress had ratified. This was not something promised and ratified in the days of the Presidency of Ulysses S. Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes or even John Adams (either John Adams or John Quincy Adams as it matter little) but the previous President whose promises were voided by his successor. The United States has been all but neutered as far as entering into relations with any guarantees of any nature due to this reversal of policy making the word of the United States a matter restricted to each administration and afterwards simply something which only has meaning should it agree with the new Presidential policy interests. Now when there are alterations in foreign policies made one day they have a guaranteed until date on them and that is the end of the administration which reached the accord, if even that long. The only thing which thus far has not been made irrelevant is a promise by a President while they are in office, something that if that were to fail, the United States would then have lost all credibility in world relations. Perhaps this will be the first which President Trump will make pass as he might make a promise and forget about the promise and then turn a full 180o making the promise disappear and ending the United States word having any validity whatsoever.

 

That brings us back to the forming of any warm relations and possible alliances with Israel and Arab nations. The history between Israel and any or all Arab nations has been one of violence and mistrust. One of the Muslim nations which Israel once had good relations was Iran under Shaw Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi but after the 1979 revolution and the return of Ayatollah Sayyid Ruhollah Mūsavi Khomeini Iran became one of the greatest Israeli enemies promising the complete and total annihilation of the entire nation and every Jew within. Further, Israel and Egypt reached an accord signing a peace treaty with Egyptian President Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Begin signing the treaty at the White House with President Carter watching on. When, while under pressures from United States President Obama, standing Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stood down and an election was held electing President Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, the treaty between Israel and Egypt became under suspicion with the Egyptians claiming they were not planning on honoring the treaty though they were not going to go to war quite yet. The Egyptian people rose up and the Egyptian military overthrew President Morsi and held new elections which were won by the former Egyptian Military Commanding General, el-Sisi who on becoming President made known to Israel that he would honor the peace treaty. Still, for the span under President Morsi the treaty between Egypt and Israeli was truly in jeopardy and was not being enforced except through expediency. The basic problem is there are no real guarantees that any Arab nation can give and the backing by the United States is severely tarnished such that it can not be trusted much more than any Arab leader as with changes in any of these leaders can make all the difference as to whether or not these agreements hold any weight and have actual meaning equal to their intent.

 

Display of the Muslim Nations of the World in the Middle East, Asia and Northern Africa in Green with Israel depicted in Red

 

The one other problem is that Israel has entered so many agreements including a number before becoming a state as the Zionist Congress did when making the supposed ironclad agreement with the British Crown presumably guaranteeing that all the lands of the British Mandate west of the Jordan River was to be preserved by the British Crown for the Jewish State yet they were one of two nations (the other was Pakistan) who recognized the annexation of Judea and Samaria by Jordan, so much for the British Crown. Further, the United Nations also was supposed to back up that very promise under Article 80 of their Charter yet they too tried to cut Israel in half and giving Israel lands which would have been half desert. The Security Council fortunately did not agree to this motion forcing it to remain as General Assembly Resolution 181 which once it was refused by the Arab League became completely null and void and unenforceable yet this is the one Resolution the world constantly claims it must enforce. All of these point to one simply rule which Israel must live by, if there is any agreement which favors Israel, it will be ignored or overturned and if there is any agreement which is to the detriment of Israel, it can never die no matter how many times it is refuted even by International Tribunals because the world will still be eager to find some way of reviving it. So, there can be only one means by which Israel could enter into any agreement allying herself with Arab nations even with the guarantees from the European Union, United Nations, United States, British Crown and Commonwealth, the French Republic, the German Fatherland, Mother Russia, the People’s Republic of China and any group, combination, litany or expediency thrown together by the world to impress and promise that virtually every person and entity existing and residing on the planet stands behind, and that is only through the unending desire to believe in the best and the foolhardiness of her leaders and particularly the Prime Minister, Foreign Minister and Security Cabinet. The problem is it appears when people make it into such high offices in Israel they lose all common sense and in its place become overly optimistic that everything will be for the best. Where that is fine for the average person, but that may not be the wisest of conditions for leaders. Still, that is the reality and all the rest of us can do is pray and pray very hard and often.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Khamenei Frightening Regret of Nazi Defeat

 

Iranian Supreme Leader and Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei in a speech on September 18, 2016, while denouncing President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani calling for more investment in the economy rather than increasing military spending also made commentary which was far more disturbing. Khamenei lamented the results of World War II and insisted that military spending continue to be the highest priority even if the people are made to suffer economic hardships as Iran must not suffer the same fate which was the fate of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. What makes this all the more threatening is for Iran to suffer such a fate would require their placing themselves in a similar situation threatening other nations to the point where warfare is thrust upon much of the world in a determined effort to resist the threat of world conquest be a single minded nation led by people determined to commit genocidal cleansing of the world of all who are not subservient to them and their philosophy, or in the case of Iran, surrendered to Islam, and that would be Shia Islam. Khamenei was disturbed by the forcing of Germany and Japan into submission and forced to be disarmed which was, according to the Supreme Leader, a humiliation which Iran must never be made to suffer. Khamenei lauded the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) as the key to the success and completion of the Islamic revolution which was started in Iran in 1979 and is expected to enforce the Quranic call to conquer the world for Allah. This was the cause which Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ruhollah Mūsavi Khomeini set as the purpose of all efforts and dedications of the Iranian people onto perpetuity. Khamenei has reinvested Iran in the dreams and goals set forth by Khomeini thus making more than their names sounding so similar as so is their dedication to the supremacy of Iran and Shia Islam.

 

Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei
Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ruhollah Mūsavi Khomeini

 

For most nations to be led by a dictatorial leader with dreams of world conquest there would not be any serious concern as it is unlikely that they could build sufficient military to potentially pose such a risk. Muammar Gaddafi often made speeches telling his people that their suffering would be alleviated once they defeated the nations oppressing them and denying them their rightful place as leaders ruling over much or all the Earth depending on his feelings of bravado on any given day. After pushing his terrorist sponsoring too far he faced a severe kick in the ego from the United States when President Reagan struck Libya responding to a Libyan terrorist strike on the “La Belle” nightclub in West Berlin which killed three people including one American Serviceman. The American and allies response came on April 15, 1986, in the early morning hours striking numerous targets throughout Libya including the Bab al-Azizia barracks, Murat Sidi Bilal camp, Tripoli military airfield, Benina military airfield, the air defense networks in Benghazi and Tripoli and Muammar Gaddafi’s house in an attempt to kill the dictator himself. Muammar Gaddafi, with his family, rushed out of their residence in the Bab al-Azizia compound just before the bombs dropped. The warning phone call came from Italian Prime Minister Bettino Craxi. Among the estimated sixty killed was one infant girl who was used as an attempt to vilify the American raid. Her name was Hannah and she was displayed before Western reporters with the claim she was the recently adopted daughter of Muammar Gaddafi. All things considered, this raid ended any claims from Muammar Gaddafi of Libya being a world leader and destined to lead the entirety of the world. Libya was never actually a threat to attempt world conquest and that claim was made to excuse a retrograde economy and the suffering of the population from the failed economic state. Iran has sufficient oil which as long as the price per barrel remains above approximately $50 to $75 Iran makes a profit from a percentage to all of their wells as their oil is thick and of poor quality thus costing more to draw from the ground. This is part, if not most of the reason for Saudi Arabia pumping out close to full capacity oil production to force the price per barrel below that $50 price. This has the additional effect of starving Russia from large oil profits and makes American fracking no longer cost effective thus having a deleterious effect on every oil producing nation with whom the Saudi Arabian Royals are having difficulties.

 

Still, Iran is currently cash flush thanks to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), better known as the Iran P5+1 Nuclear Deal, plus other additional payments made by the Obama Administration with a reported four-hundred-million dollar payment for presumably a broken arms deal with the Shah and definitely not a ransom for the released four American hostages. But wait, there is rumored to be more as that four-hundred-million dollar payment for the arms deal has been rumored to have been followed by another payment more than three times that size; a staggering one-point-three-billion dollars claimed to be interest of the original payment. As this payment was delivered in a secret aircraft delivery in actual American cash, thousands of hundred or even thousand dollar bills, hard currency, something unimaginable but somehow true. One can only wonder whether President Obama is going to further finance the military build-up before leaving office, and if so, how much more will he send? Additionally, even by the assessment of President Obama himself, the Iran nuclear deal will allow Iran to be within a few months of attaining nuclear weapons status after the ten year deal expires and there will be nothing to prevent Iran from building a nuclear stockpile challenging that of the United States within a year or soon thereafter once the deal has expired. But don’t worry, Iran will have calmed in that time and will no longer be set on world conquest in a decade or so. Just because Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei just declared the need for Iran to be so militarily powerful that should they set out to conquer the world they will not end as did Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan and be humbled in failure a full thirty-seven years since the 1979 revolution when the military path was first set upon. Sure, of course Iran will be a happy and cooperative nation in a decade or two, sure they will, right? Well, time will tell.

 

Still, one has to understand that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is seventy-seven years of age and in unknown health as such is a very secretive piece of information. Besides that, in a decade he will be eighty-seven (higher math skills paying off) and even with good health that is an advanced age. There is a possibility that he will have stepped down and a new Supreme Leader and Grand Ayatollah have been selected by the Assembly of Experts (aka Council of Experts) and now setting the direction of Iran. There could be a turn around and the next Grand Ayatollah and Supreme Leader will decide that the economy and the lives of the people are far more important than the destruction of the Great Satan (United States), the Little Satan (Israel) and/or the Wahabbist menace of Saudi Arabia. You doubt this? But President Obama has set the hopes of the free world on Iran becoming another nation happy to be a member of the community of nations and live in harmony with the rest of the world including those mentioned above. Come to think about it, you are probably right and things will probably get dicey. How dicey will depend on what the rest of the world does and the outcome of the Islamic infusion into the Western World and whether they assimilate or set on conquest, and the reaction to whichever path is chosen. The leadership in the Western World and beyond over the next decade or two will be very important and revealing on the importance for the continued freedoms of the developed Western World. Why am I so seriously concerned over this outlook?

 

Beyond the Cusp