Beyond the Cusp

April 14, 2020

Israeli Political Stalemate Strikes Again

 

 

When nothing has changed between now and whenever President Rivlin finally surrenders to reality, these are our observations and thoughts. Should everything remain as it appears, Israel will be going to a fourth set of elections. It appears that yet another election will likely leave things the same without anyone able to form a coalition numbering sixty-one or more Knesset Ministers. These past three elections fit neatly into the Einsteinian definition for insanity, performing the same tasks expecting different results.

 

We here at BTC are going to go out on a limb and predict a winning side; but first, our reasoning behind the change we see coming. Former Blue-White leader, Benny Gantz, performed the political pirouette going back on any number of his former promises. There is one main U-turn which will damage him and lose him followers. This U-turn came when General Gantz (ret) attempted to form a government by allying with the Arab List. Even with this attempted new alliance, Gantz ended up unable to reach the magic sixty-one majority. This attempt also blew apart the Blue-White alliance leaving the former alliance torn asunder back into the component parties. This breakup comes at the same time as Labor and Meretz ended their alliance as well. Meanwhile, the parties making up the right-leaning alliance are well as in tact for as long as Bibi Netanyahu honors the promises made to them and not take away their ministries so as to bribe left-leaning parties to join the coalition. Breaking these promises would be the quickest means for destroying the right-leaning alliance.

 

We at BTC are actually looking forward to a new round of elections. These elections, we believe, will be held sometime in either August or September. The reason for holding the new elections that late is for any number of reasons including an end to the COVID-19 pandemic allowing people to feel safer being in groups and still allow for some time for campaigning. Granted, the vast majority of Israelis are set in their voting choices. So, what changes have we noted, despite the difficulties caused by the pandemic? The most obvious has been the breaking apart of the main left-leaning party, Blue-White, and another leftist alliance where one of the members is unlikely to break threshold. Of course, there is always the chance for any slip to come along and change everything.

 

Bronze Star of David

 

Well, guess the time has come to predict the results of any fourth Israeli elections. Top of the list will be Bibi Netanyahu yet again with sixty-two to as many a sixty-five mandates. The Arab List will remain between fourteen and seventeen mandates leaving less than a mere fifty mandates, falling completely from contention. Hopefully, Bibi can get past his paranoia suspecting that others are trying to replace the leadership of Likud into the future. While having Netanyahu returning one more time as Prime Minister may not be the most desirable, one last tour to collect more cigars and champagne and getting even deeper in trouble with the media; after Gantz’s recent self-destruction, there really is no other choice.

 

Taking the nearly identical results from the previous elections, the fourth elections will be predicted to simply be yet another repeat, yet we believe it could easily be the charm. What we advise Bibi Netanyahu, or any other right-leaning leader, to do is better Israel politically and place her beyond physical threat. The first effort should lead to completely annex all lands west of the Jordan River while providing any Palestinians desiring to leave with aid to assist their relocation. As for the remainder of time to the next elections, it would serve Likud and the right-leaning political wing to replace Bibi at the helm and promote a new leadership. Meanwhile, Israeli politics will remain one of the most absurd and delusional found on this Earth.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Blog at WordPress.com.