Beyond the Cusp

August 12, 2017

Trump and America Alone

 

The United States has not ever been known to be alone in the world with friends which can be counted on her two hands. Those days are almost upon us. Very soon the United States will be finding herself blamed for acting when she acts and for standing aside when she doesn’t act. She will start facing denunciations in the General Assembly of the United Nations by votes resembling those only Israel has faced before where 130 will vote to denounce her with maybe a dozen supporting America and the remainder abstaining and in the United Nations Security Council she will find only her own Veto will prevent her facing sanctions. Whenever the United States acts there will be accusations of unilateralism even when her actions are to rescue a nation from hostile acts of their neighbors. What could possibly bring on such condemnations? Well isn’t it obvious? Her own leftists and their NGO’s in their inevitable rush to try and discredit and destroy President Trump will result in their also discrediting the necessary actions he may soon be called upon to decide as certain things reach critical levels after being pushed aside for decades. These situations reaching these points, these deplorable stages, are doing so largely due to President after President kicking the can down the road because to act required somebody actually being the adult in the room and taking the responsibility of what would inevitable be an unpopular series of events.

 

This will burst upon the scene initially with probably facing down the North Korean menace Kim Jong-un and his ever-increasing threat which advances with each missile test. Most observers place his current level of threat lower than it actually is, a common thread in politics where avoiding bad news and terrible situations is often done by underestimating the possibilities. Currently, President Trump and his military are properly giving North Korea and its potential threats its rightful attention but they are likely to back away from confrontation if for no other reason than their knowledge of the firestorm which would follow any military action against the Kim regime. They probably already made the deal not to intervene in exchange for allowing one more set of sanctions just passed by the United Nations Security Council to work. If somebody could give us a reason why these sanctions will function with any superior results than the past five sets of sanctions since the armistice was signed in the early Eisenhower years, that would at least be amusing. The problems with these sanctions are the same as with the previous sanctions, North Korea largely trades with China and some with Russia and little else. These are the two nations which can be counted upon to ignore the sanctions after a brief period of observing them so as to grant them the appearance of working. Sanctions are not the magic tool for breaking the bond that China and Russia have with North Korea. For these two adversaries, North Korea is their arrow in the flank of the United States which seriously hampers the American image and drains off the attentions of the United States from their acts of belligerence. One will always pay attention to the leader threatening nuclear annihilation over those merely pressuring neighboring nations in order to increase their spheres of influence.

 

Map of Approximate Missile Ranges of North Korean Missiles

Map of Approximate Missile Ranges of North Korean Missiles

 

North Korea is soon to reach the point of no return with their having produced a viable and reliable two stage, solid-fueled ICBM and the thermonuclear warhead of five to ten megaton range, a real city-killer with the necessary accuracy to strike within a mile or two from the intended spot anywhere in the world. The advantage they will gain once their ICBM’s are solid-fueled is recognizably dire. Solid-fueled two stage ICBM’s, unlike their liquid-fueled missiles, are ready to be fired instantly by simply, as it is shown in the movies, pressing the large red button on the console (always placed next to the other red button which is for self-destruct of the station). The current liquid-fueled missiles take at least an hour to pump the fuel into the tanks where they also must be kept heavily chilled to avoid the launch becoming a detonation. Such a process is fairly easily picked up by satellites viewing the planet below and thus giving the United States ample warning to take actions either political, economic or military threat as well as preparing an interception under best possible conditions. Solid-fueled missiles simply are fired from their launcher, which in the case of North Korea, thanks to China for providing these, are on mobile launchers which means that their location could be anywhere within North Korea and often have escaped detection. This prevents having the right resources for an interception under best conditions available. This is why the threat from North Korea has, in our opinion, already reached the point where they are at having an advantage.

 

North Korean Missile Launcher Utilizing Chinese Trucks

North Korean Missile Launcher Utilizing Chinese Trucks

 

Unlike those whose responsibility is to give President Trump a picture where he still has the largest possible range of options still available, our assessment is that North Korea has tested their separation technology with their last four launches which were two stage missiles. This was the last remaining step to master before placing a solid fueled second stage, which they have already demonstrated, atop a similar sized first stage booster. That is the formula for a viable ICBM which is all solid-fueled and ready to fly within a moment’s notice. North Korea has had a viable Super EMP warhead for two years by now and they have proven to be capable of aiming a missile to strike the United States from the south coming into the Texas area where NORAD has a soft spot of minimal detection and intercept being designed primarily to prevent Russian attacks and having been adapted to include China but never to intercept a missile coming from the south. This has long been a deficiency the United States had left vulnerable as the cost of closing the circle was considered too high for the limited protection it was thought to provide, a purely political choice and another can kicked down the road. North Korea already has placed a satellite into such an orbit which could be dropped to the required low-earth orbit necessary for optimum EMP detonations currently and this satellite is of unknown function. Military experts have claimed it was much like Sputnik and was merely a proof of capability satellite and nothing sinister at all. Let us all hope they were correct.

 

North Korea likely has a mountable sized warhead which could easily deliver a Hiroshima sized or possibly larger warhead currently in their arsenal. Kim Jong-un may even have a small thermonuclear warhead available for launching. This is the point where it all depends on your faith in the abilities provided by his scientists. It would not make much sense for China to have provided mobile missile launchers for liquid-fueled missiles as it would have been equally illogical to provide such if Kim Jon-un was only going to be targeting South Korea or Japan, as is still being held as his only really viable target by some advisors. These locations could be targeted and struck well before anybody could intervene with the most simple of Kim Jong-un’s known arsenals. The North Koreans have had sufficient weaponry targeting Seoul, South Korea for over half a century initially using simply artillery and subsequently replacing rocket artillery with some missiles, most probably some version of guidable Scud, so as to strike particular targets such as hardened command and control and other bunkers. The targeting which Kim Jon-un has been waiting to have are reliable missiles with which he can target New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, Dallas, Washington D.C. and Colorado Springs with the Air Force Academy and central controls for NORAD.

 

Presumed China Provided North Korean Mobile Missile Carrier

Presumed China Provided North Korean Mobile Missile Carrier

 

The sole thing holding Kim Jon-un from any attack is two fold, first he lacks sufficient missiles to guarantee overwhelming any interception capabilities of the United States and he would prefer to make demands, painful demands, of the United States mainly but addressed to the world. The first demand will be for the United States to remove their bases and soldiers from South Korea. This will be demanded to prove to South Korea as well as Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan that they are basically on their own against North Korea and China. Should the United States approve such a move then Kim Jong-un will know that he has an appeaser to work with and he will continue. The next demand will be to South Korea where he will demand that the peninsula be united under a federation between himself and the President of South Korea and some form of united administration. That will be inconsequential as within weeks Kim Jong-un will have announced that he was granted sole leadership despite any governance that was initially signaled. Kim Jong-un is not the kind of person who shares anything, let alone absolute power. Then he will demand the sanction be removed, as his merger with South Korea should be proof that he is no danger to anybody, he used pure diplomacy for his takeover of the entire Korean peninsula. What he might do after that is anybody’s guess. Japan would be one logical next target, but that would not be a diplomatic move, as Japan would never agree no matter how much pressure the world placed upon them. So, the next step may as well be his swan song, the really big step, demands Security Council permanent status seat with the other nuclear powers because he deserves such respect. Whatever his demand, he will continue making more and more outrageous demands until finally somebody, likely the United States puts their foot down and says no to his demands. That is when he will appear to sulk and be forlorn while waiting for a sufficient period that he feels will have the United States relaxed and not expecting an attack. This is when he might actually be sufficiently unstable and believe that should he decapitate the United States leadership, then the United States might simply not respond and settle for licking their wounds and trying to recover.

 

This is why Kim Jong-un need be countered on the United States terms and not wait for him to become an actual threat. That leads us to President Trump and the current situation. President Trump currently has his hands tied until Kim Jong-un either carries out a nuclear test or another missile test this time using both stages being solid-fueled systems. This will prove his ability to launch on command instead of having an hours waiting for fueling for launch when ready, not immediate. With this proven technology, the United States will be on notice that Kim Jong-un will be readily capable of striking any number of targets potentially within the Continental United States, that would be CONUS Command, and possibly any target within the United States as well as Europe. Whatever the perceived and admitted abilities of North Korean missile technology, they are frighteningly close to their desired capability and already are capable of striking the United States with a devastating EMP device which could bring down most, if not all, of the North American electrical grid. We would call that a very definite threat to the well-being of every American as such a devastating strike would minimally kill three-quarters of the population of North America. Canada would also be direly adversely affected. This places President Trump with the unenviable decision of does he act now, before anything horrific occurs or does he wait for a provocation which nobody could fail to recognize and admit he acted according to the betterment of the American people or did he act as a warmonger seeking personal glory. We may as well face the reality of this situation. Should President Trump act to prevent any of the dire consequences of a nuclear capable Kim Jong-un, then the media, Congress and other world leaders and especially the United Nations and their army of NGO’s and Agencies will all unite to condemn the man who destroyed the peace solely for self-aggrandizement. And should President Trump wait until Kim Jong-un acts and attacks the United States then President Trump would be pillories as the President who did not have the foresight or the willingness to act in the face of impending danger and allowed the needless suffering of the people of Japan, South Korea or wherever Kim Jong-un ordered the strike and if it was the United States, all the more Trump will be condemned. If Kim Jong-un were to strike Japan and President Trump responds by attacking North Korea then he will be criticized if his attack is too large in scale or if it is considered insufficient in scale. The secret is if it leaves Kim Jong-un with any ability to strike further, then the attack proved to be insufficient and Trump is an incompetent. If, on the other hand, the attack decapitates North Korean military and political structure and removes all threats, then Trump is a warmonger bringing undue suffering to the people, the innocent people of North Korea. If then China were to take hold of most of North Korea, well, then Trump is an incompetent again for not seeing this inevitability and acting to prevent the Chinese from taking over the northern half of the Korean Peninsula and thus threatening South Korea even worse than Kim Jong-un had threatened them. If United States and South Korean troops enter the North and unite the peninsula, well then Trump did it for the land and to force democracy war upon North Korea without even asking them if they desired such. You basically get the idea, either he is a warmonger or he was unprepared or he was a warmonger just before he was unprepared or he is a warmonger land grabber. Whatever President Trump does about North Korea, or does not do about North Korea will prove to have been wrong in the immediate media coverage and in the halls of Congress. We predict that if President Trump were to take steps to replace Kim Jong-un and manage this without firing a single shot or missile and all of North Korea were hailing him as their savior, impeachment charges would be brought up in the House of Representatives on charges of unnecessarily involving the United States in regime change for no reason. Of course, if he waits and Washington D.C. becomes a target, then there likely will be no action from Congress, as they will be scrambling to get far enough from the Capital in the period they have between warning and strike. With the EMP scenario, Congress might meet and actually still have electricity as the coasts might survive such a strike, and they would most definitely be bringing impeachment even if they were doing so by candle light. The end result of any action or inaction on North Korea will be impeachment, that is about the only sure bet.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 10, 2017

Guam, North Korea, Nukes and Trump’s Predicament

 

President Donald Trump is in a precarious predicament when it comes to North Korea and the pressing threats. We can get to the predictable results shortly, but first it bears analyzing the sticky situation in which the President has been forced by his own Congress in which his own party presumably has a majority. The one thing which is always tricky when one sits atop a democratically elected government in a nation which is in no mood for military adventurism, getting backing for starting a conflict. This is even true when the adversary is an obviously crazed dictator with delusions of grandeur who believes he is holding the upper hand. Kim Jong-un believes that now that he presumably, if his threats and intelligence reports are to be believed, has the more powerful position with a nuclear weapon miniaturized and capable of being mounted atop any of his ballistic or ICBM missiles. Even if we were to grant that the North Korean weapons was sufficiently powerful as half a megaton, he still would need five just to level any sufficiently targetable metropolitan area within the United States and a degree of accuracy to give the optimal spread of impact sites. Despite this and now a direct threat by Kim Jong-un to strike Guam with one such said missile, President Trump still has his hands tied.

 

Logically, one would believe that the current situation being what it is, President Trump could simply order a decapitating strike on North Korean leadership and with one set of at most a dozen high explosive missiles from an Arleigh Burke Destroyer and the top generals and Kim Jon-un could be entered into the history books and the North Korean threats put to bed while the United Nations Security Council decided who would be assuming the reconstruction of North Korea, the United States, China or preferably South Korea with a unified Korean Peninsula. That is where the problem enters the picture. While history has shown that virtually no Democrat Senator would ever vote to impeach a Democrat President, Republicans are more than willing to entertain and even advise a Republican President to resign as they will refuse to protect their own Party’s President from impeachment as was the case when Republican Senate leadership informed President Richard Nixon that should he actually fight impeachment, they were ready and very likely to vote for his impeachment. So, should President Trump actually take it upon himself without a declaration of war from Congress to attack North Korea, we can bet that within hours the House of Representatives would have drawn up charges of impeachment, approved them by a significant majority and sent the case to the Senate for trial. All that is required in the House of Representatives to bring forward charges is a simple majority and then a two-thirds majority in the Senate is required to convict, which with the several “Never Trump” Republicans becomes a distinct possibility. On the other hand, should North Korea launch a successful attack then we could expect Congress to again attempt charges of impeachment for President Trump’s lack of action in the face of an obvious menacing threat. President Trump is in a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation.

 

Arleigh Burke Destroyer Missile Firing

Arleigh Burke Destroyer Missile Firing

 

Even should Kim Jong-un launch missiles at Guam, should all the missiles either be intercepted, the preferred case, or simply miss their target thus causing no actual harm, President Trump would remain to be facing the previously described situation of not having complete authority to act without facing potential impeachment and facing the exact same result should he not act and a subsequent strike prove successful. This is most definitely an unpleasant situation faced by President Trump. The latest, as of this writing, the ball had been shot into President Trump’s court with Kim Jong-un’s announcement that North Korea has manufactured a miniaturized nuclear warhead with which they can now top their missiles and his making a direct threat to attack Guam should the United States continue their belligerence. The current ballistic missiles in the North Korean arsenals which potentially could strike Guam include the Hwasong-10 liquid fueled, Hwasong-14 solid propellant and the Pukguksong-2 solid propellant. The liquid fueled missile would require a fueling cycle which might make it being detected by satellite imagery while the solid propellant are ready to launch by the pressing of a launch signal without any preparation other than raising the launch on the mobile carriers, which many claim were provided by China (see image below), or opening the silo on the underground silo launch sites. Each of these missiles is capable of carrying the claimed nuclear warhead or a sizeable high-explosive traditional explosive warhead. These facts make Kim Jong-un’s threat a credible threat and is just another step further climbing the tree and neither side has shown any indication of attempting to steady the situation and reduce tensions. This latest threat was in response to the reaction to the previous slightly more vague threat of severe consequences by Kim Jong-un if the United States did not pull back to which President Trump promised in his response stating, “North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” This drew the directed threat upon Guam by North Korea. The comments by President Trump received the expected criticisms from Senator Dianne Feinstein as well as Senator John McCain (video blow).

 

Presumed China Provided North Korean Mobile Missile Carrier

Presumed China Provided North Korean Mobile Missile Carrier

 

 

The situation currently stands with the exchange of threats and promises resting with President Trump and the likelihood of actual action sitting with Kim Jong-un as it is highly unlikely that President Trump is willing or ready to initiate and military actions. This in no way intends to claim the United States is not fully capable of taking actions to tackle this problem at any point of its own choosing. Kim Jong-un need understand that the United States could lay waste to his entire nation without taxing more than one ballistic submarine which would still have missiles to spare if further response were required. This does not even begin to take into account the three aircraft carrier groups sitting well within range of their aircraft and the missiles on the support vessels which include numbers of Arleigh Burke Missile Destroyers. There is one pitfall which it might be advisable that President Trump not fall into, and that is considering and contending with the size and variety of attack which would be launched against North Korea should it be deemed necessary. We can recall the “Shock and awe,” promised by President George W. Bush at the initiation of the air campaign against Iraqi Dictator Saddam Hussein. Remembering watching the coverage of the initial airstrikes on Baghdad, we recall being somewhat less than “shocked” and well short of “awe” as it appeared that the main damage came in the form of secondary explosions (video below). Don’t get us wrong, the precision was impressive but the display lacked the traditional carnage and city left in flames images. One needs to perceive the exact effect upon the psyche of your opponent when making a display of strength. Sure, the United States military were extremely pleased with the exact precision of their warheads and the minimal amount of collateral damage to the city left by the attacks. One example which was regularly repeated was the removal of a transmission tower striking it such that it missed striking either of the buildings reportedly close on either side. Saddam Hussein would probably been far more impressed had the attack on said broadcast tower taken down the blocks of buildings in every direction and was probably thinking that if this is what the United States calls laying waste to a city, then they are pretty pathetic. Sometimes, when dealing with dictatorial, or even elected, thugs and self-professed military geniuses who, as Saddam Hussein was want of doing, when striking a village or town in order to send a message, they usually laid waste to the entirety of the town, the majority of the residents, and possibly even destroyed the roads and basements of the school house. Simply put, they caused devastation when sending a message. There was the message sent to the Kurds in northern Iraq where chemical weapons were utilized and not a single person escaped, that was the Saddam Hussein understanding of sending a warning, not taking out a single building with a concrete bomb (that is a thousand pounds of concrete in a thin metal shell, such that only the restaurant where Saddam was presumed to be dining was destroyed and the buildings on either side were undamaged. Had a two-thousand pound World War II blockbuster (called such as it would drop and entire block of buildings) bomb been used, then Saddam Hussein, who was less than a few hundred yards from the restaurant having just left, would have been removed by the attack. Sometimes bigger is better as it assures you destroy the intended target. Just because you can guide munitions through the third window from the end on the fifth floor and only destroy that room leaving the rest of the building structurally sound does not mean that would be the best manner of striking that room. Sometimes the entire building need be destroyed to get the message across.

 

 

When it comes to Kim Jong-un, it is unlikely that any amount of damage to his country would have much of an effect upon him. This is a maniac who had a top general hung for being late or contradicting or correcting him in a meeting, had his uncle murdered for treason and had his half-brother murdered in another country simply because he might make a claim to Kim Jong-un’s position. We are speaking of a man who ordered all men to wear their hair styled exactly like his hair (which begs the question of what bald people were to do) or face execution. Wait, he later ruled that men must not wear their hair styled as he does and must choose from fifteen particular styles. You just cannot make this stuff up. What would it take to impress Kim Jong-un that your airstrikes really were serious and, quoting President Trump, “North Korea best not make any more threats to the U.S. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” That is setting the bar pretty high when one remembers the twenty-four hour bombing of Dresden during World War II (image of firestorm below B&W). There is no way, honestly, that Kim Jong-u would accept that the damage was more than his subjects were willing to endure in support of his rule. He was raised as a man-god and believes of himself as incapable of errors in judgement or that he could be outsmarted or outmaneuvered by any mere mortal, especially President Trump. Kim Jong-un very probably believes his own propaganda.

 

Image of Dresden Firestorm Consuming the City

Image of Dresden Firestorm Consuming the City

 

The only attack, which would work to prevent Kim Jong-un from carrying out any threat made, would be to remove him from the scene. The required move against North Korea would mean choosing between formulating a coup and implementing a decapitation strike where Kim Jong-un and his top generals are all taken out with one strike. The strike could include several locations, but it would be imperative that the strikes, if at more than one location, be timed close enough such that no one attack point has time enough to convey to their superiors or officials of the state about what was occurring before it was all done. Such an attack could be performed when it is known that Kim Jong-un is attending a launch of one of his missiles or is visiting one of the nuclear facilities or at a test of a nuclear weapon. It would be imperative that the majority of the general staff also be present which is why we chose such events. If there is a known general who would look favorably upon the idea of reconstituting a unified Korea under an elected, honestly elected governance, then sparing him or them would be preferred but they must not be told when and where such a strike might take place as such might allow Kim Jong-un to become suspicious thus leading to his not attending the targeted location. Striking and not removing Kin Jong-un from power would be the greatest possible disaster as it would lead to an immediate launch of an attack on Guam, Hawaii, Alaska and anywhere within the continental United States (CONUS), his missiles could deliver a nuclear payload. It can be assumed that North Korea had at least ten if not many more of these announced miniaturized nuclear devices. Kim Jong-un would not have risked their vulnerability without knowing that he was sufficiently armed with these warheads before allowing their disclosure. President Trump and advisors should take such into consideration and make choices preferably consulting Congress. The problem with consulting Congress would be whom do you trust not to leak the information and thus warning North Korea of the United States intended action or lack thereof.

 

The brinkmanship from both sides is providing a hazardous situation all around. Neither side is showing any signs of climbing down from the tree they find themselves trapped within. The other problem is at what point one side will take action and of what action will they avail themselves. North Korea can technically use knowledge gained from the Iranians very likely with an entire freighter arming kit which would turn any freighter container ship into a missile silo. With this knowledge, Kim Jong-un can use the most basic scud missile to deliver nuclear warheads with little advance warning to every coastal city. Should any freighter so armed receive approval for sailing to make a delivery somewhere along the Mississippi River, then almost every city of any size would become a potential target. Some of the coastal port cities along the east, west and southern coastal regions include but are not limited to New York, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, New Orleans, Miami, Philadelphia, Tampa, San Diego, Baltimore, Norfolk, Houston and, of course, Washington D.C. despite not being a port city, it is vulnerable from the Chesapeake Bay or Potomac River all the way to the Tidal Basin in the heart of the government. Since North Korea has proven to be capable of orbital insertion, they could place that ever dangerous EMP device they have presumably mastered into a satellite and utilize such at any time simply by detonating the satellite miles over the center of North America and they might wipe out the entirety of the electrical grid or simply destroy well-beyond half of the electrical grid and hundreds, if not thousands, of expensive and in tight supply massive transformers. These devices are manufactured in Germany and Japan and while awaiting delivery, it is possible that the United States might lose as much as three-quarters of its total population with Canada taking similar if not even higher percentages of population loss. Both nations would be decimated and the retaliation upon North Korea might appear to be a purely spiteful move and thus rejected by the State Department and also the Congress. Neither group appears to be sensitive to the people’s desires except at election time, but then they brag about the two or three brave stands they made on legislation they know would be vetoed. Where this is headed appears frightening and one can only hope that the inevitable can be redirected away from any course of actions which includes the destruction of either nation. Thus far, that possibility looks to be bleak.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 8, 2017

Future of Worry and Present of Threats

 

Temple Mount, just those two words bring up thoughts of rioting youth and terrorism murdering Israeli police and citizens. Ask anyone and they will tell you that the Israeli Arab conflict is one of the most difficult political problems on the planet. That thinking can and will never solve this conflict. There exists absolutely no political solution to this problem. The reason is this is not a political problem. More on this as we get further into the article.

 

Iran, this is also a political threat according to President Trump and most of the advisors and experts. Iran is attempting to take over much of the Middle East with control already stretching from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. They have all but taken over the southern half of Iraq, all of Lebanon and are working to take over much of Syria and appear to be succeeding with Russian assistance and the use of Lebanese Hezballah which for all intents and purposes is the Army of Lebanon plus what remains of the Syrian Army that remains loyal to Bashir al-Assad. Iran has been working towards a nuclear weapon and nobody can be absolutely assured that they are keeping to the supposed agreement made with President Obama. Most do not even know what the agreement between the nations was as each copy of the terms appears to be different. There are the Russian, European, and United States versions and nobody knows for sure what the Iranian agreement states. Iran has made remarkable progress on their missile technology and has been known to be working with North Korea which has to trouble everyone. The world will be seeking a political solution to this set of threats as well. This also is not a political problem.

 

North Korea and Kim Jong-un is probably the most pressing problem currently as he is about to go beyond the cusp and actually have a solid fueled ICBM capable of striking anywhere on the planet. Such a system is probably less than six months away and by that time he will most definitely have a nuclear EMP device (electro-magnetic pulse) capable of being placed atop just such a missile and taking out an electrical grid the size of North America or Europe. Further, he will likely have at least a nuclear device capable of decimating a city if not a thermonuclear device capable of destroying an entire metropolitan area. Some political solution is also being sought to this threat. This also is not a political problem.

 

China has been expanding her control in the South China Sea and threatening to take over disputed islands claimed by Japan and the Philippines. China has also refused to take any stand towards placing some control on Kim Jong-un. Many believe that this is due to China hoping that the trouble being sewn by North Korea will take the pressure and concentration of President Trump off the moves being exercised by China. This is probably not a wise move by China as President Trump is perfectly capable of addressing more than one problem at a time just as he is capable of causing more than one problem at a time. China, fortunately, is largely a political problem but also shares some of the properties of these other situations.

 

So, what is this magical and mysterious central concept that is not political at the center of these problems? In a single word, it is supremacy. For Iran and the Arabs, it is religious supremacy. For Kim Jong-un it is his view of himself as more than just a man but more of an idealized and worshiped leader who has abilities far above his enemies and other mere mortal beings. For China, it is the fact that China has been a world hegemon off and on for centuries and has always considered themselves superior to other nations and add in the Communist doctrines which tell that Communism will defeat Capitalism and the West given sufficient time, and time has always been in the favor of China. Where in the west we count our seconds and minutes, in China they count centuries and millennia. This has and still is an advantage as China operates on an entirely different view where they do not need to win today or tomorrow or in the next ten or hundred years. They believe that their patience and belief that their children or their children will one day rule the world will win them any contest.

 

So, as each of these conflicts is about supremacy of some sort, how does one become the victor? Let us take these situations in reverse order and start with China. There is no defeating the Chinese, only proving preeminent for now. If you can show China a strong front which is obviously a match if not superior to their current ability, China will lay back and wait building slowly but inexorably towards closing any gap or perceived deficiency. Currently China is building her Navy adding submarines and aircraft carriers. These are currently smaller and less capable than those of the United States, but China is rapidly making gains in the production of these vessels. This should not present a problem in the immediate as the United States can produce these as they wish as they just launched a new super carrier recently, the USS George H.W Bush CVN-77, which was the tenth of these super-carriers, three of which are currently stationed in or around the Sea of Japan and right off the coast of North Korea and China and rather close to the South China Sea when one considers the range of their aircraft (see image below). Where China will have difficulty keeping abreast of the United States militarily is simple, the United States spends more on her defense budget than China, Russia, India, Israel, Brazil, Britain, and Saudi Arabia combined. China knows they may be the eight-hundred-pound gorilla in the western Pacific, Sea of Japan, South China Sea and surrounding waters, but the United States is the ten-ton gorilla anywhere on the globe whenever she chooses to be so and the area just off China and North Korea currently has that privilege. China will rest and dream of a few centuries down the line but right now had best be concerned with India which is poised to become the most populous nation within a decade or two surpassing China. That one-child policy has really come to bite China.

 

USS George H.W Bush CVN-77

USS George H.W Bush CVN-77

 

Next is North Korea where Kim Jong-un is perfecting his ICBMs and his nuclear warheads for immediate future use against the United States. What people need remember is that the United States and North Korea are at war as are North and South Korea with one another. The United States and South Korea stand opposed to North Korea across an area which resembles a World War I no man’s land and both sides take casualties every so often just to punctuate the distrust and animosity. North Korea has sufficient artillery and rocket launchers including multiple-launch rocket vehicles (MLRV) to completely decimate the entirety of the greater Seoul metropolitan area. That would amount to millions of casualties and the decimation of the South Korean economy. This has been their threat for years and it has worked as planned. Now North Korea is on the verge of a new threat, nuclear annihilation to any city on Earth or an even more devastating weapons, a super EMP device which is a low yield but dirty nuclear device with a yield under twenty-five kilotons but which produces a massive EMP wave which destroys virtually all functioning electronics being active at the time. This includes the massive power transformers used in the electrical grid. If these are not heavily shielded and hardened against such a device they will explode, causing fires and massive outages of electrical power, quite possibly much of the North American or European grids. There are very limited numbers of companies which manufacture these transformers, as demand for them is proportional to the expansion of the world electrical grids which moves at a steady but slow rate, all things considered. Such a device could put a nation like the United States without adequate electrical generation and delivery capability for as long as a decade or even two resulting in a loss of over half if not three-quarters of the population. If such a device were detonated over Kansas City, the entirety of the central United States and reaching well into Canada would be affected. That is the threat the United States and potentially Europe face from North Korea as soon as they have the rocket and a warhead version making such a device deliverable, something they could already posses. There is no delicate means for addressing this threat short of decapitating the entirety of the North Korean military command and structure and then having South Korea take as much of the peninsula as China will allow them. It is very possible that the Chinese will not interfere in such an instance, as they would not care to absorb the problems economically which exists in North Korea.

 

Demilitarized Zone Between North Korea and South Korea

Demilitarized Zone Between North Korea and South Korea

 

Iran is fortunately not an immediate problem. One such problem is sufficient. Iran though is a growing problem which in some means resembles North Korea. The leadership of Iran feels they, as a whole, are superior to other people as they are the most learned in the Quran which gives them all the knowledge necessary to win. They have the ideology of Islam which promises them that Allah will make them the conquerors of the entire planet and all that their god commands. If life was found on a distant world and the Islamic peoples were aware of such and believed that to be a truth, then they would also expect to conquer that planet and subjugate and eventually convert or murder everyone. The main problem Iran has is Islam itself. Iran is Shiite Islam which is a small percentage of Muslims while Sunni Islam is easily ten times their numbers. Of course should Iran gain nuclear missiles and nuclear warheads, that might change rapidly. Then akin, if Iran developed nuclear weapons one can bet that Saudi Arabia would simply purchase a number of warheads sufficient to remove Iran and her allies from the map and then do so. Next to North Korea, Islam on Islam internecine warfare is the second highest risk of nuclear war breaking out on our globe. The most likely is between Saudi Arabia and Iran and should that occur and the Saudi Arabia manage to lose that exchange, the next would be Egypt who would likely ally so fast with Pakistan and likely arrange the launch to come from Pakistan as they are closer to Iran anyways. Egypt would waste no time getting aid from the United States and possibly even seek assistance from, of all places, Israel to intercept anything headed for Egypt as well as defending herself. Iran may soon require being toppled, something which a wise United States State Department would already be working on. Unfortunately the United States State Department has never really shown much of a proclivity for doing the right thing ever since World War I, they were even almost on the wrong side of World War II except the rest of the United States chose better.

 

Finally, we get to the Arabs and Israel. This is a very basic and simple situation. The Arabs are Muslims and the Israelis are Jews. To the Arab mind this is a simple problem, they are Islam, the sole true religion on earth and Israel are the Jews, the most contemptable religion on earth. Are there any questions after that description? There are only two results in this situation, either the Jews are annihilated or the Arabs go away or are so subjugated and defeated that even the sight of a yarmulke makes them shake with terrorizing, gripping fear. The problem is the world refuses to allow Israel to win such a victory and demands Israel make concessions to repair a political situation. Every concession Israel makes just has the Arabs believing Israel is frightened of them and reinforces their sense of superiority making the solution that much more distant. Should Israel be permitted to go through the Arab areas, take all the terrorists out and deal with them in a primitive and brutal manner, the problem would end the next sunrise. Even if the Jordanian Arabs were to get their independence from the Jordanian King and invite the Arabs to move to Jordan, they would still believe that they should conquer Israel as well. Only a defeat of the Arabs living within the lands promised Israel would end this conflict for the time being. There is only one thing which would solve this problem permanently, but the world is nowhere near ready to hear such an idea, though that time is soon to come or the world is in worse shape than we thought. Islam will require having its wings clipped and clipped severely such that the sound of a jet engine or the sound of tank tracks or a car motor sends then quivering to the furthest corner. Islam in several means is resurgent and will start to attempt conquest if not prevented through a display of actual willingness to prevent such an explosive force of destruction. Imagine terrorist attacks the globe over similar to what Israel faced in the Second Intifada and you have an idea of how such a war will soon progress. Israel has still to come to terms with this truth; the world is even further from this realization. There are some who see this such as John Bolton, Geert Wilders, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Brigitte Gabriel and a select group of others. The only hope is for the world to awaken before it becomes necessary for another World at War.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Next Page »

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.