Beyond the Cusp

October 17, 2017

The Storm Before the Calm

 

President Trump was quoted to have made mention that we were experiencing the calm before the storm, and at the very point one might say started the storm before the calm. The media went into a feeding frenzy making all forms of predictions of doom, World War III, nuclear Armageddon and the end of all sanity. Some predicted that, finally, President Trump had gone too far and this had to be impeachable material as if a President can be impeached because he said something that some, or many, or even most people found offensive. For all we know, President Trump could have been referring to the calm in the media who had found nothing he had said worthy of impeachment in the last twenty seconds, and now he had so the storm was sure to ensue. That would have been an accurate interpretation, as any, of the media eruption over the statement, “calm before the storm,” words which Trump had spoken. But let us assume that President Trump meant that things were starting to look quite dangerous in the world. Well, can anybody say that such a description of the current state of the world was exactly wrong? There is an upstart young and rather unstable fool firing rockets over the Islands of Japan and across areas of South Korea out into the oceans and seas surrounding these nations while exploding nuclear weapons and having restarted the plutonium producing reactor, making fuel for more such weapons ruling North Korea. There are some rather less than stable religious fanatics very likely making nuclear weapons and testing ever more capable missiles threatening to destroy the Great and Lesser Satans of the United States and Israel and then launch their troops to conquer the world. There is a war still raging in Syria where it appears that a murderous dictator backed by Iranian Mullahs and their IRGC troops and Hezballah terrorists will win the day backed with Russian air support. Libya is still in a state of chaos with intertribal fighting and Iraq is in a state of unrest with Iran and the Iraqi government about to go to war with the Kurds in the north just as Bashir al-Assad also may be fighting the Kurds in his north. As far as fighting Kurds, there is Turkish President Erdoğan, who has been at war with the Kurds of his nation as well; yet the world refuses to allow a state for the Kurds where they would live in peace if only permitted such a privilege.

 

Perhaps President Trump was being too kind referring to the present state of the world as calm. Anybody calling the present state of the world as calm might just be as daft as the media claims. Europe has an economy which has been steady in its inability to show much in the way of life. The new infiltrators and immigrants in much of Europe have brought with them crime and unrest and threats of revolution and jihad with an ending target of the imposition of sharia. China has been spreading tendrils building islands in the South China Sea which will lengthen a main trade route between the Indian and Pacific Oceans or potentially giving China complete control over this trade route while they also tend to solidify their claims over islands also claimed by Japan, Viet Nam or the Philippines. China apparently has decided to try their hand at hegemony themselves and is still spending like there is no tomorrow on their Navy and Air Force. Russia is continuing their agreement with Syrian dictator Assad in exchange for the use of Syria’s Mediterranean Sea Ports while Iran consolidates their Shiite Crescent across the Middle East (see map below). Turkey’s Erdoğan still sees himself as the next leader of the renewed Caliphate. President Sisi in Egypt has made all the right and noble statements of reforming Islam such that they learn to prefer their Mecca verses of coexistence and tolerance over the Medina verses of war and conquest until the entire world submits to Allah but has been dreadfully reticent about taking stronger actions than a speech or two at Al-Azhar University in Cairo while Coptic Christians remain targets for murderous jihad. India and China, the world’s two most populous nations and both nuclear powers are in a standoff over their border as the Chinese are constructing a road into the disputed province. Meanwhile, in Kashmir, India and Pakistan are still standing armed to the teeth and both with nuclear weapons in their standoff over who actually owns what once was an independent nation. While, what we presume, most probably accurately, is a nuclear power, Iran is rushing towards a war potentially with Egypt and more definitely Saudi Arabia, which could get nuclear weapons from Pakistan amongst other places, over who will have control over the Muslim Middle East and be the preeminent power of all Islam. Iran and Israel are in standoff mode as of the reality spoken of above where Iran has promised to wipe Israel from the map while Israel prefers to remain where she stands. And there is the growing threat globally of terrorism.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

Then there is the threat of a civil war in the United States. The media is fanning the flames and leftists worldwide are willing to pay any price to be rid of President Trump. There is presumably a plan for a full-blown nationwide uprising in protest for November 4th hoping that it will grow in proportions until President Trump has little choice but to resign in order to save the nation. Somewhere in this plan, there may be a small problem though we would be hard pressed to point it out. Such a demonstration could be seen as an attempt to overthrow the government which would permit the President using any and all power at his disposal to end the uprising, but other than that, what could go wrong? Meanwhile the media is fanning these flames for all the ratings they are worth even to the point of Jimmy Kimmel crying over spilt milk. What else could go wrong other than perhaps a flu pandemic if they got the flu shot formula wrong?

 

There is a coming water shortage in many places on the planet and despite clean water technologies being available, little is being done to distribute it where needed as the cost would be rather daunting challenge. Funny how people are willing to spend billions to pursue political ends but they find it difficult to spend even thousands to benefit all mankind. There are also threats of famine from crop failures from poor land use and so little is being done to teach the farmers of the world better techniques let alone getting them the equipment necessary to increase yields. Israel is working in Africa and elsewhere with assisting in such efforts but cannot reach everywhere and the United States also has taken up efforts worldwide but they could use others to help more with these efforts than in starting revolutions. There will be weather and other natural disasters which the world will need to give their assistance. And there are so many other areas in which the world could be improved such as providing medical assistance to the world including such things as Saving a Child’s Heart which not only saves children with heart defects from around the world but trains surgeons and sets up hospital departments to treat children around the world. Yes, we thought ending with hope would make more noise than another story over a Trump gaff.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Advertisements

September 5, 2017

North Korea and a Time for War

 

United States Secretary of Defense James Mattis stated flatly that North Korea’s threats and actions were unacceptable and threatening the peace of the world. Secretary Mattis warned Kim Jong-un that North Korea would suffer a “massive military response” (video shown later in the article) should they attack the United States, her allies or protectorates. He stared further, “Any threat to the United States or its territories including Guam or our allies will be met with a massive military response.” Also, “Kim Jong-un should take heed the United Nations Security Council’s unified voice. All members unanimously agreed on the threat North Korea poses. And they remain unanimous in their commitment to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Because we are not looking to the total annihilation of a country, namely, North Korea.” Secretary Mathis added “many military options” are available to the United States and President Donald Trump insisted on being briefed on all of them.

 

Trump Kim Showdown at Guam

Trump Kim Showdown at Guam

 

Secretary of Defense James Mattis was flanked by Joint Chiefs Chairman General Joseph Dunford, another four star Marine General, and whenever you are facing two four star Marine Generals, you are looking at a real and viable threat. The generals of North Korea should also note that there was no State Department representative at the press briefing which to us signals that the playing of games and screaming threats back and forth are done. President Trump has apparently lost all patience with the petulant child leader who believes his own propaganda that he is a godly endowed beloved Dear Leader of North Korea and that his sweat does not stink, if you catch our drift. President Trump has a Congress to conquer and cow into submission, and we do not mean the Democrats but the presumed members of his own party which presumably are helping get his agenda accomplished. To do this, he needs to straighten out the Republicans in Congress or promise to run campaigns against them in the Primary Election and again in the General Election if that is what it demands to get them replaced with somebody willing to end Obamacare, cut and simplify the tax codes and finally address and keep a thousand and one promises he made along the campaign trail. President Trump would much rather work on reducing the load of government regulations which prevent small businesses from succeeding and find some way to inject more competition into the seeming monopolies which have all but taken control of the largest media network in the history of the world, the Internet.

 

North Korean missiles are simply flies to be Swatted by Trump

North Korean missiles are simply flies to be Swatted by Trump

 

North Korea and all of its missiles are simply flies which require swatting out of the air so that the President can get to rebuilding the United States as he had promised. But, Winston Churchill stated clearly once that, “To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war.” President Trump would likely agree wholeheartedly and already traveled that road. You might remember his use of “jaw-jaw” which was covered extensively by the media under claims that President Trump was going to start a nuclear war any second. President Trump never said anything about starting even the shooting of a rifle unless provoked by an actual attack by North Korea. The initial promise by President Trump to answer in kind with that little extra touch called complete destruction if North Korea followed through on any of their three most stated threats, the complete destruction of Seoul, South Korea and a full assault on South Korea, a missile attack which would potentially include nuclear warheads on Japan or striking Guam with nuclear tipped missiles destroying everything on the island American Protectorate was overshadowed by the media circus. It must have been because Kim Jong-un doubled down on his threat by claiming the nuclear attack on Guam was imminent and the decision was already made and the time was approaching. President Trump again chose to jaw-jaw promising to reply to such an attack with rain of “fire and fury” down on North Korea. The media went ballistic again screaming fearfully that war with North Korea was imminent. What was odd was they said almost nothing or absolutely nothing when Kim Jong-un backed down and remained silent and promised he was ending missile tests. When the threat of war fell to almost zero, the media went as silent as Kim Jong-un with nary a mention that President Trump had backed down North Korean lunatic President Kim Jong-un and instead started their non-stop coverage of Charlottesville and the war on Confederate War statues.

 

 

When Secretary of State Rex Tillerson decided to publically brag about the back down of Kim Jong-un by President Trump and his administration to the media, it proved to be a provocation according to Kim Jong-un. What needs to be understood is Kim Jong-un is unstable and fully believes that he is invincible and that North Korea can stand toe-to-toe against the United States militarily. Kim Jong-un also fully believes his own greatness and superiority in all things, after all, this is the man who shot an eighteen the first time he went out and played golf. When Secretary Rex Tillerson challenged Kim Jong-un, he challenged his manhood as far as the North Korean man-child was concerned, and nobody is permitted to insinuate that Kim Jong-un is anything but an invincible god-man. It was no surprise that Kim Jong-un launched missiles the very next day and the day after and has returned to threatening to launch nuclear tipped missiles at Guam. Secretary of Defense James Mattis flanked by Joint Chiefs Chairman General Joseph Dunford gave what are most probably President Trump’s final words on the matter and as long as this final warning is heeded, the world will return to a nice peaceful place with nothing further from Kim Jong-un. This is exactly what would happen in a perfect world.

 

The problem is we live in this world. President Trump is pretty much done with Kim Jong-un and the whole North Korean threat. He has requested the different scenarios available from the Pentagon and how each one would be implemented. The President has likely also requested other plans for situations likely including decapitation of Kim Jong-un, preemptive strike to destroy Kim Jong-un’s ability to launch attacks on Guam or anyone, and other scenarios as well as what additional steps are required to provide full missile protection from the North Korean threat. The most difficult jobs will be protecting South Korea and Japan, as they are geographically neighbors of North Korea. As far as the probability of an actual war between the United States and North Korea, that is highly improbable. It would be an exchange of military might which would last less than two days, more likely less than thirty-six hours. The most probable outcome will be that things will start to cool as China or Russia will talk Kim Jong-un down from the perch and ground him for the duration of Trump’s Presidency. A war, even one of under a week, between North Korea and the United States would not prove good for either of their present plans, as they desire a United States concerned with internal problems and turning a blind eye to their plans and operations. Russia has their little arrangements for Middle East hegemony with Iran and its Shite Crescent stretching across from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea while China is quite busy creating their own Islands out of sand in the South China Sea. Neither of these ventures needs an alert and active United States looking around as to what needs addressing in this world.

 

President Trump is finished with jaw-jaw and will now allow Kim Jong-un to continue to scream and, with any luck, President Trump can avoid responding either in speech or by Tweet, then the world will be treated to Kim Jong-un sounding more and more desperate and futilely trying to gain some response from President Trump and permit him to gain some notoriety. This will be a test for the new Chief of Staff General John F. Kelly to control President Trump and keep him and the administration in a nonresponsive state no matter the challenge or threat from North Korea. This situation did not need to get this far but both China and Russia decided early on that they were not going to assist President Trump in any way and simply leave him to twist with a media roasting his every decision as if each were an impeachable offence and his entire administration suspected of the worst corruption or incompetence. They may have decided that this was a quick way to judge and frame exactly who President Trump is and what they can expect from him and how far he might be able to be pushed or pressured and what the signs are in order to judge him in the future. If this was their thinking, then they are also partially responsible along with the American media who spent their time tearing down the United States President than covering this conflict accurately and factually allowing Kim Jong-un to move the crisis to a more pitched height which was unforgivable. Should this terse conflict reach open warfare, there will be sufficient guilt and blame to go around but the only coverage which will be covered by the mainstream medias will be simply that President Trump was culpable for the entire mess and that Kim Jong-un was willing to end the crisis if only President Trump had simply made concessions and pay North Korea and provide them with fuel, food, money and who knows how much more and as North Korea has used this method of extortion multiple times before with success. Nowhere will one hear that the best solution for the people and the world would be the end of Kim Jong-un and the tyranny which has misruled the nation, all to the severe degradation of the lives of the people of North Korea, the real victims of the Kim family tragedy.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 12, 2017

Trump and America Alone

 

The United States has not ever been known to be alone in the world with friends which can be counted on her two hands. Those days are almost upon us. Very soon the United States will be finding herself blamed for acting when she acts and for standing aside when she doesn’t act. She will start facing denunciations in the General Assembly of the United Nations by votes resembling those only Israel has faced before where 130 will vote to denounce her with maybe a dozen supporting America and the remainder abstaining and in the United Nations Security Council she will find only her own Veto will prevent her facing sanctions. Whenever the United States acts there will be accusations of unilateralism even when her actions are to rescue a nation from hostile acts of their neighbors. What could possibly bring on such condemnations? Well isn’t it obvious? Her own leftists and their NGO’s in their inevitable rush to try and discredit and destroy President Trump will result in their also discrediting the necessary actions he may soon be called upon to decide as certain things reach critical levels after being pushed aside for decades. These situations reaching these points, these deplorable stages, are doing so largely due to President after President kicking the can down the road because to act required somebody actually being the adult in the room and taking the responsibility of what would inevitable be an unpopular series of events.

 

This will burst upon the scene initially with probably facing down the North Korean menace Kim Jong-un and his ever-increasing threat which advances with each missile test. Most observers place his current level of threat lower than it actually is, a common thread in politics where avoiding bad news and terrible situations is often done by underestimating the possibilities. Currently, President Trump and his military are properly giving North Korea and its potential threats its rightful attention but they are likely to back away from confrontation if for no other reason than their knowledge of the firestorm which would follow any military action against the Kim regime. They probably already made the deal not to intervene in exchange for allowing one more set of sanctions just passed by the United Nations Security Council to work. If somebody could give us a reason why these sanctions will function with any superior results than the past five sets of sanctions since the armistice was signed in the early Eisenhower years, that would at least be amusing. The problems with these sanctions are the same as with the previous sanctions, North Korea largely trades with China and some with Russia and little else. These are the two nations which can be counted upon to ignore the sanctions after a brief period of observing them so as to grant them the appearance of working. Sanctions are not the magic tool for breaking the bond that China and Russia have with North Korea. For these two adversaries, North Korea is their arrow in the flank of the United States which seriously hampers the American image and drains off the attentions of the United States from their acts of belligerence. One will always pay attention to the leader threatening nuclear annihilation over those merely pressuring neighboring nations in order to increase their spheres of influence.

 

Map of Approximate Missile Ranges of North Korean Missiles

Map of Approximate Missile Ranges of North Korean Missiles

 

North Korea is soon to reach the point of no return with their having produced a viable and reliable two stage, solid-fueled ICBM and the thermonuclear warhead of five to ten megaton range, a real city-killer with the necessary accuracy to strike within a mile or two from the intended spot anywhere in the world. The advantage they will gain once their ICBM’s are solid-fueled is recognizably dire. Solid-fueled two stage ICBM’s, unlike their liquid-fueled missiles, are ready to be fired instantly by simply, as it is shown in the movies, pressing the large red button on the console (always placed next to the other red button which is for self-destruct of the station). The current liquid-fueled missiles take at least an hour to pump the fuel into the tanks where they also must be kept heavily chilled to avoid the launch becoming a detonation. Such a process is fairly easily picked up by satellites viewing the planet below and thus giving the United States ample warning to take actions either political, economic or military threat as well as preparing an interception under best possible conditions. Solid-fueled missiles simply are fired from their launcher, which in the case of North Korea, thanks to China for providing these, are on mobile launchers which means that their location could be anywhere within North Korea and often have escaped detection. This prevents having the right resources for an interception under best conditions available. This is why the threat from North Korea has, in our opinion, already reached the point where they are at having an advantage.

 

North Korean Missile Launcher Utilizing Chinese Trucks

North Korean Missile Launcher Utilizing Chinese Trucks

 

Unlike those whose responsibility is to give President Trump a picture where he still has the largest possible range of options still available, our assessment is that North Korea has tested their separation technology with their last four launches which were two stage missiles. This was the last remaining step to master before placing a solid fueled second stage, which they have already demonstrated, atop a similar sized first stage booster. That is the formula for a viable ICBM which is all solid-fueled and ready to fly within a moment’s notice. North Korea has had a viable Super EMP warhead for two years by now and they have proven to be capable of aiming a missile to strike the United States from the south coming into the Texas area where NORAD has a soft spot of minimal detection and intercept being designed primarily to prevent Russian attacks and having been adapted to include China but never to intercept a missile coming from the south. This has long been a deficiency the United States had left vulnerable as the cost of closing the circle was considered too high for the limited protection it was thought to provide, a purely political choice and another can kicked down the road. North Korea already has placed a satellite into such an orbit which could be dropped to the required low-earth orbit necessary for optimum EMP detonations currently and this satellite is of unknown function. Military experts have claimed it was much like Sputnik and was merely a proof of capability satellite and nothing sinister at all. Let us all hope they were correct.

 

North Korea likely has a mountable sized warhead which could easily deliver a Hiroshima sized or possibly larger warhead currently in their arsenal. Kim Jong-un may even have a small thermonuclear warhead available for launching. This is the point where it all depends on your faith in the abilities provided by his scientists. It would not make much sense for China to have provided mobile missile launchers for liquid-fueled missiles as it would have been equally illogical to provide such if Kim Jon-un was only going to be targeting South Korea or Japan, as is still being held as his only really viable target by some advisors. These locations could be targeted and struck well before anybody could intervene with the most simple of Kim Jong-un’s known arsenals. The North Koreans have had sufficient weaponry targeting Seoul, South Korea for over half a century initially using simply artillery and subsequently replacing rocket artillery with some missiles, most probably some version of guidable Scud, so as to strike particular targets such as hardened command and control and other bunkers. The targeting which Kim Jon-un has been waiting to have are reliable missiles with which he can target New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, Dallas, Washington D.C. and Colorado Springs with the Air Force Academy and central controls for NORAD.

 

Presumed China Provided North Korean Mobile Missile Carrier

Presumed China Provided North Korean Mobile Missile Carrier

 

The sole thing holding Kim Jon-un from any attack is two fold, first he lacks sufficient missiles to guarantee overwhelming any interception capabilities of the United States and he would prefer to make demands, painful demands, of the United States mainly but addressed to the world. The first demand will be for the United States to remove their bases and soldiers from South Korea. This will be demanded to prove to South Korea as well as Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan that they are basically on their own against North Korea and China. Should the United States approve such a move then Kim Jong-un will know that he has an appeaser to work with and he will continue. The next demand will be to South Korea where he will demand that the peninsula be united under a federation between himself and the President of South Korea and some form of united administration. That will be inconsequential as within weeks Kim Jong-un will have announced that he was granted sole leadership despite any governance that was initially signaled. Kim Jong-un is not the kind of person who shares anything, let alone absolute power. Then he will demand the sanction be removed, as his merger with South Korea should be proof that he is no danger to anybody, he used pure diplomacy for his takeover of the entire Korean peninsula. What he might do after that is anybody’s guess. Japan would be one logical next target, but that would not be a diplomatic move, as Japan would never agree no matter how much pressure the world placed upon them. So, the next step may as well be his swan song, the really big step, demands Security Council permanent status seat with the other nuclear powers because he deserves such respect. Whatever his demand, he will continue making more and more outrageous demands until finally somebody, likely the United States puts their foot down and says no to his demands. That is when he will appear to sulk and be forlorn while waiting for a sufficient period that he feels will have the United States relaxed and not expecting an attack. This is when he might actually be sufficiently unstable and believe that should he decapitate the United States leadership, then the United States might simply not respond and settle for licking their wounds and trying to recover.

 

This is why Kim Jong-un need be countered on the United States terms and not wait for him to become an actual threat. That leads us to President Trump and the current situation. President Trump currently has his hands tied until Kim Jong-un either carries out a nuclear test or another missile test this time using both stages being solid-fueled systems. This will prove his ability to launch on command instead of having an hours waiting for fueling for launch when ready, not immediate. With this proven technology, the United States will be on notice that Kim Jong-un will be readily capable of striking any number of targets potentially within the Continental United States, that would be CONUS Command, and possibly any target within the United States as well as Europe. Whatever the perceived and admitted abilities of North Korean missile technology, they are frighteningly close to their desired capability and already are capable of striking the United States with a devastating EMP device which could bring down most, if not all, of the North American electrical grid. We would call that a very definite threat to the well-being of every American as such a devastating strike would minimally kill three-quarters of the population of North America. Canada would also be direly adversely affected. This places President Trump with the unenviable decision of does he act now, before anything horrific occurs or does he wait for a provocation which nobody could fail to recognize and admit he acted according to the betterment of the American people or did he act as a warmonger seeking personal glory. We may as well face the reality of this situation. Should President Trump act to prevent any of the dire consequences of a nuclear capable Kim Jong-un, then the media, Congress and other world leaders and especially the United Nations and their army of NGO’s and Agencies will all unite to condemn the man who destroyed the peace solely for self-aggrandizement. And should President Trump wait until Kim Jong-un acts and attacks the United States then President Trump would be pillories as the President who did not have the foresight or the willingness to act in the face of impending danger and allowed the needless suffering of the people of Japan, South Korea or wherever Kim Jong-un ordered the strike and if it was the United States, all the more Trump will be condemned. If Kim Jong-un were to strike Japan and President Trump responds by attacking North Korea then he will be criticized if his attack is too large in scale or if it is considered insufficient in scale. The secret is if it leaves Kim Jong-un with any ability to strike further, then the attack proved to be insufficient and Trump is an incompetent. If, on the other hand, the attack decapitates North Korean military and political structure and removes all threats, then Trump is a warmonger bringing undue suffering to the people, the innocent people of North Korea. If then China were to take hold of most of North Korea, well, then Trump is an incompetent again for not seeing this inevitability and acting to prevent the Chinese from taking over the northern half of the Korean Peninsula and thus threatening South Korea even worse than Kim Jong-un had threatened them. If United States and South Korean troops enter the North and unite the peninsula, well then Trump did it for the land and to force democracy war upon North Korea without even asking them if they desired such. You basically get the idea, either he is a warmonger or he was unprepared or he was a warmonger just before he was unprepared or he is a warmonger land grabber. Whatever President Trump does about North Korea, or does not do about North Korea will prove to have been wrong in the immediate media coverage and in the halls of Congress. We predict that if President Trump were to take steps to replace Kim Jong-un and manage this without firing a single shot or missile and all of North Korea were hailing him as their savior, impeachment charges would be brought up in the House of Representatives on charges of unnecessarily involving the United States in regime change for no reason. Of course, if he waits and Washington D.C. becomes a target, then there likely will be no action from Congress, as they will be scrambling to get far enough from the Capital in the period they have between warning and strike. With the EMP scenario, Congress might meet and actually still have electricity as the coasts might survive such a strike, and they would most definitely be bringing impeachment even if they were doing so by candle light. The end result of any action or inaction on North Korea will be impeachment, that is about the only sure bet.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Next Page »

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.