Beyond the Cusp

June 3, 2016

Weeds in the MENA Garden

 

 

If one were to ask the European Union, the United States, the United Nations and the world media who is responsible for the unrest throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) the resounding echoes would continue to scream Israel for likely the rest of eternity, but is that an honest assessment or simply a knee jerk automatic programed response spurred by anti-Israel, anti-Zionist, anti-Semitic hatreds? The easiest way to tell would be to take a quick whirl around the MENA nations and see what the truth is. Let us start our excursion at the western edge and head to the east and see what we will see.

 

A map of MENA nations is almost up to date and is only missing the Sudan, and as the Sudan was split after years of tribal and religious violence, South Sudan; and some go so far as to include Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Djibouti, Eretria, and Somalia.

A map of MENA nations is almost up to date and is only missing the Sudan, and as the Sudan was split after years of tribal and religious violence, South Sudan; and some go so far as to include Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Djibouti, Eretria, and Somalia.

 

Coming into the North of Africa from the Atlantic Ocean the first country we would visit would be Western Sahara where we would find Morocco has occupied Western Sahara since 1975 in violation of resolutions by the United Nations Security Council and International Court of Justice ruling. Any efforts to dislodge Morocco from Western Sahara have been blocked directly by the United States whose full support of the Moroccan occupation shows no sign of relenting. The conflict reemerged as the “Independence Intifada” in 2005 which has remained as depicted in map below. Despite numerous efforts to defuse the situation the standoff remains.

 

Occupied Western Sahara  by Morocco Shaded Area  and Western Sahara Unshaded

Occupied Western Sahara
by Morocco Shaded Area
and Western Sahara Unshaded

 

Continuing on from the Morocco-Western Sahara conflict we next visit Mauritania which has had a rocky recent history including two military coups, the first was in 2005 followed eventually by elections for a new president in 2007 followed by the second coup in 2008. General Abdul Aziz took power after the coup but found the nation had few supporters amongst them predominantly were Morocco, Libya and Iran while the United States and European nations rejected the legitimacy of the coup continuing to refer to Abdallahi as the legitimate president of Mauritania. After the resignation of Abdallahi there were elections which allowed Abdel Aziz to become the civilian president. In February 2011 there were waves of unrest as the Arab Spring spread to Mauritania demanding President Mohamed Abdel Aziz institute political, economic, and legal reforms. The unrest culminated in April of 2012 as thousands of people in Mauritania attended demonstrations in the capital calling for President Mohamed Abdel Aziz to resign. Currently the nation is under military rule with the legal system based on Islam and Sharia.

 

Heading across the southern end the picture in Mali, Niger and Chad is the constant internal strife between Christian governments and Islamic uprisings with much of the major horrific attacks conducted by the terrorist group Boko Haram which literally means Western education is forbidden. Boko Haram follows Saudi Wahhabism and has pledged their loyalty to the Islamic State. Along the north there has been steady unrest in Algeria and especially Libya since the NATO backed coup where President Obama declared that the United States was leading from behind in the ouster of and eventual execution (murder) of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. In Libya the nation is in fractious rule of numerous terror groups and tribal armies with some having declared alliance with the Islamic State. In the south east there is the Sudan which bled in the south especially in the Darfur area. Eventually the Sudan was force to divide allowing South Sudan to become independent. In October of 2015, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir issued a decree establishing twenty-eight states in place of the ten constitutionally established states. The decree established the new states largely along ethnic lines. He took it to the parliament for approval as a constitutional amendment in November and the South Sudanese parliament empowered President Kiir to create new states.

 

This brings us to Egypt where the recent history has played out live and large in the Western media. The Arab Spring riots led to the removal of President and military strongman Mubarak. The elections were held fairly soon after Mubarak was forced to step down largely by the United States backing of the Muslim Brotherhood. These elections overwhelmingly approved Muslim Brotherhood candidate Morsi to the presidency and a large Muslim Brotherhood majority in the parliament. Within the year new rioting broke out protesting the implementation of Sharia despite warnings from Turkish President Erdogan to the Morsi government to slow their radical changes or face resistance. This led to the military removing Morsi and arresting him for election fraud. New election instated former General of the Army Sisi as President though he still had an Islamist and presumed Muslim Brotherhood controlled parliament. The Obama administration refused to recognize Sisi and demanded that Morsi be reinstated; a request which was roundly ignored. Unrest still exists between Egypt and the United States which will be resolved by the Presidential election this November in the United States. As to what either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump might choose to do is a complete mystery at the present time as neither has addressed foreign policy beyond Hillary’s claim to deep knowledge claiming her time as a Senator of New York and a stint as Secretary of State under President Obama which included the Benghazi, Libya fiasco amongst other miscues and Trump claiming to have conducted business deals with numerous foreign governments and met many world leaders though particulars remain largely unconfirmed. Egypt has also faced unrest largely from the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic State where both are vying for control of the Sinai from where they would presumably unseat Sisi and retake the presidency. Hamas in Gaza was seen as providing assistance to these and some Iranian backed groups in the Sinai thus earning themselves a complete sea and land embargo enforced by Egypt from their waters and land borders with Gaza. The Egyptian blockade is often ignored with the large amount of attention paid to the Israeli “blockade” which is actually an inspection of goods before allowing their delivery to Gaza usually within one or two days done to assure that weapons are not being imported by Hamas and the other terror groups which rule Gaza. Egypt too is a work in progress.

 

We will return to Israel subsequently but meanwhile on to Lebanon where the terror groups Hezballah runs the government with an opposition often afraid to act to remove the terror group as previous attempts have resulted in untimely deaths. Lebanon cannot be addressed without discussing Syria and the state of war which has more facets than hewn crystals. The main three forces are Syrian dictator Bashir al Assad who has retreated to the Alawite tribal areas along the Mediterranean coast and Lebanese border. Assad is backed by Iran and their proxy, Hezballah, out of Lebanon. These are the Shiite forces which also receive tactical support largely in the form of air strikes by the Russians who are protecting their port area along the Mediterranean coast. Inland there are Sunni groups, oft referred to as terror groups, supported largely by Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Finally there are the forces of the Islamic State which stretch into Iraq where they face the Iraqi Army backed by Iran who uses mostly IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps) placing Iran at either end of the Islamic State. The Islamic State has been largely self-financed though there have been rumored support from Qatar. There is another group in northern Iraq and extending into northeastern Syria which is controlled by Kurdish Militias which are opposed strongly by Turkey. The Kurdish forces were at one time rumored to be receiving training by Israeli trainers on a clandestine mission though many have refuted that this was just a means of explaining the Kurdish forces resilience and holding their own against Islamist forces considered to be better equipped.

 

This takes us to the Saudi Peninsula and Jordan which we can count as a single unit of the GCC (Gulf Coordination Council) which is a group backed mostly by Saudi Arabia which includes Kuwait and the Gulf States and to a lesser extent, Jordan. Saudi Arabia has a close working relationship with the Egyptian government of President Sisi who are jointly facing terror groups including those supported or aligned with Islamic State as well as Iranian backed terrorists and the Houthi Tribes in the Yemen civil war, a front where Iran backed and Saudi Arabian backed forces are in direct confrontation. The United States has opposed and presumably attempted to prevent, though with little success, arms shipments to the Houthis by Iran and also opposed the bombing sorties from Saudi Arabia with equal lack of success and the belligerents continue to fight on. In the southernmost areas of Yemen, the prized areas which overlook the narrow passage from the Red Sea into the Arabian Sea, called Bab el-Mandeb Strait are a group of fighters originally claiming alliance with al-Qaeda but recently changing their alliance to presumably the Islamic State. These groups have benefited directly from Saudi raids as has the currently recognized Hadi-led government.

 

Yemen Battle Map

Yemen Battle Map

 

Lastly let us finally look at Israel. On the Golan Heights IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) have returned fire when fired upon by intention and otherwise has unofficial drop points for wounded individuals, civilian and combatant though no difference is noted, wounded and in need of treatment. IDF soldiers take these wounded and treat them in their field facility with the more serious cases transferred to Israeli hospitals for treatment. After treatment the individuals once sufficiently recovered are returned from whence they came at same drop points. All sides can view the individual drop points and all points are respected by other fighting factions in an unarranged agreement as all sides use this treatment method and no one side wishes to risk being cut-off from Israeli treatment and have to rely on whatever resources they have available. We have no information as to whether any Iranian forces have received treatment from the Israelis though if placed in civilian clothing they would receive the same treatment as any other individual. The Israeli border with Lebanon is currently quiet as Hezballah has sufficient on their plate with forces in the Syrian conflict and rumored even to have some fighting with IRGC or Houthis in Yemen. Intelligence believed to be accurate estimated that Hezballah has stores of rockets of varying size and capable of striking Tel Aviv, Bathsheva and even Ashkelon as well as guided missiles from Iran capable of striking anywhere in Israel including the southernmost port city of Eilat carrying warhead as large as two kilos and potentially five or ten up to one-hundred kilos warheads on their short and medium ranged rockets of which they possess as many as one-hundred-seventy-five-thousand. On their larger missiles they have warheads of as much as seven-hundred-fifty kilos on modified Zilzal-2 with a four-hundred km range and which they possess an estimated one thousand. Their Fateh-110 missile has a range three-hundred km range striking at Mach 3.5 carrying a four to seven-hundred kg warhead of which Hezballah possess more than twenty-thousand and lastly there is the Shaheen-II two stage missile which has a range of two-thousand km making able to strike anywhere in Israel and into Egypt. Each missile is capable of flight altitude of up to three-hundred km, is GPS guided, and varies a one-thousand plus kg warhead making it potentially capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and retaining it guidance hardware. It is doubtful that Iran has, let alone provided Hezballah with a deliverable nuclear warhead. Such is not far from the horizon for Iran but their providing Hezballah with such a weapon is doubtful.

 

The remaining fronts for Israel are with Jordan and Egypt which are both peaceful and with the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Judea and Samaria as well as with Hamas and ally Islamic Jihad and other terror and criminal groups in Gaza. The front with the PA is largely one where there are terror strikes which can be planned by Abbas and the his PLO terror groups or the less planned but instigated through calls for violence from PA figures, PLO figures or any of a litany of groups most of which are either headed by Mahmoud Abbas or are willful practitioners at his beck and call. The most recent round were stabbings carried out largely by Palestinian Arab and some Israeli Arab youths as well as car rammings along with rock and Molotov cocktail throwing with rioting which are carried out routinely by PA controlled terror groups, the Tamini family instigators who work closely with European Union and other European NGOs whose main aims are to cause any violent response by Israel which is filmed and the instigation causing the defensive act is edited and with careful editing and juxtaposition of stock footage, prerecorded footage or actual footage with any questionable instigations by the Arabs edited over or out completely compiled into the final product which is then transmitted throughout European news agencies within a matter of a couple of hours and they run with it unedited as if it were an actual news story followed by their governments and the European union then condemning Israel for use of disproportional force or the commission of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The Gaza front is another area where Iran attempts with some success to smuggle arms mostly containing rocket motors and rocket parts and technology. Funding for Hamas comes from UNRWA as well as from the PA making the European Union, United States, United Nations and individual European nations as well as numerous Arab countries direct or indirect financiers of Hamas terrorism and rocket attacks as well as Arab instigations and propaganda which permeates their entire society from their media to the schools, summer camps soccer leagues and every aspect of childhood and raising the children to hate Jews as well as Israel. The Hamas Charter calls not only for the annihilation of Israel but of Jews worldwide. Similar language is found in Islamic Jihad and Hezballah pamphlets and charters or constitutions. The hatred goes well beyond Israel and includes Jews everywhere as well as Western culture and societies. Hamas and their allies as well as Hezballah desire a world caliphate under Sharia and openly claim so. The main difference is whether the caliphate would be Shiite or Sunni, for the rest of us that is a minor comfort.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 15, 2015

We Have a Magic Iran Deal with Entire Transcript of Agreement

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Entire Edited for ease of Reading Transcript of Iran Nuclear Agreement with the P5+1 Group

 

Yes Ladies and Gentleman and kids of all ages, step right up and hear of the Iran deal, the deal of a lifetime with guarantees galore including “Peace in Our Time,” “Free Profits for Every Corporation,” “No Fears of Iranian Nuclear Weapons for the Rest of My Presidency,” and other great thrills and exciting exhibits beyond amazing including our “Can you identify President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister and Lead Negotiator Mohammad Javad Zarif in the editorial cartoon game below?” So sit back, grab some buttered popcorn, popped free of trans fats, and a large soda, recline in your comfortable chair and enjoy the mushrooms appearing on horizons everywhere.

 

three sheep, one large, very large, sheep with wolf-like face howling and two small sheep named lunch Can you identify President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister and Lead Negotiator Mohammad Javad Zarif in the editorial cartoon game above?

Can you identify President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister and Lead Negotiator Mohammad Javad Zarif in the editorial cartoon game above?

 

 

More seriously, the entire agreement can be viewed here with link to our source a Russian publication, and it is not as much reading as you have heard as over three-quarters of the agreement is a list of sanctioned companies and other entities listed one per line often with descriptions and specifics also listed one per line taking up much of the rest of the agreement, all included on our page. The agreement is a breeze to read unless you want to reference the part of this part as per Annex I or Annex III or even as per the Roadmap, whatever that was, and references to other agreements or normative schedules and one thing I did find that was quite straight forward until you try to figure out how these terms might be defined by Iran as versus how France or other concerned parties might interpret them and then this becomes a web of intrigue. Here is this part about inspections, their intent, how they are to be requested and under what limitations;

“Requests for access pursuant to provisions of this JCPOA will be made in good faith, with due observance of the sovereign rights of Iran, and kept to the minimum necessary to effectively implement the verification responsibilities under this JCPOA. In line with normal international safeguards practice, such requests will not be aimed at interfering with Iranian military or other national security activities, but will be exclusively for resolving concerns regarding fulfilment of the JCPOA commitments and Iran’s other non-proliferation and safeguards obligations.”

So, who defines “good faith,” “sovereign rights,” “minimum necessary,” “normal international safeguards,” and “will not be aimed at interfering with Iranian military or other national security activities,” really, they expect for any time Iran wants to play hide the smoking gun HEU (Highly Enriched Uranium) that there will not be a ton of accusations of being too invasive and spying until the site has been cleared and after six months they finally allow access? Am I just overly sensitive and paranoid or might there be something here to be concerned about? Then there is the fact that Iran will be responsible for upgrading their Arak heavy water reactor to minimize its plutonium production and that inspections will be made to verify the alterations. How will such a determination be confirmed when one unnamed nuclear state built an entire fake control room to pass such an inspection while carrying out their research in order to produce nuclear weapons and the fake control room satisfied those sent to carry out the inspections as the gauges were correct and looked the part and the people manning the controls seemed intense and serious but the entire setup was a ploy and it passed. Making me all the more comfortable is that the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) will be responsible for the inspections and they are further restricted by the last phrase in the same paragraph as the above now stating a further restriction

“In implementing this procedure as well as other transparency measures, the IAEA will be requested to take every precaution to protect commercial, technological and industrial secrets as well as other confidential information coming to its knowledge.”

And who gets to define “confidential information” not to mention “commercial, technological and industrial secrets” as I am sure these cannot be interpreted in such a manner that a military enrichment site accidentally revealed through an unauthorized casual conversation with a delivery person, a soon to be very dead delivery person, or other less than brilliant secret holder, would not that be something that would be considered compromising by Iran and thus coming under these restrictions? We already know that the IAEA is better at keeping quiet than they are at actually turning the world upside-down to get to the truth. It is safer and easier to not cross Iran than to spend the rest of your days, no matter how short that may end up being, looking over your shoulder with great amounts of suspicions and trepidations. I will tell you now that if I were assigned to inspect Iran and was even allowed in by the Iranians in the first place, should I find anything resembling troubling my reaction would be exactly the same as Sgt. Schultz from Hogan’s Heroes and I would be seen walking around saying things such as, “I see nothing” and “This time, Col. Hogan, you’ve gone too far” and “Are you trying to get me sent to the Russian front?” which might actually be applicable in this instance as well. Then there is this little gem,

“if the IAEA has concerns regarding undeclared nuclear materials or activities, or activities inconsistent with the JCPOA, at locations that have not been declared under the comprehensive safeguards agreement or Additional Protocol, the IAEA will provide Iran the basis for such concerns and request clarification.”

Clarification, there is a word which is meaningless in the midst of an agreement that requires a linguist, a rocket scientist, a wordsmith, a nuclear scientist, and a magician to understand, and not to worry, Iran will be providing an illusionist and an escape artist along with their interpretations and explanations just to assist with their obstructions.

 

Reading the mitigation procedures has two fifteen day levels that run subsequent and another five day intense mitigation period after which it appears that then the filing party can file a complaint with the Security Council of the United Nations and then if they are still unsatisfied they are free to pursue remedial actions as they feel necessary. That’ll work REAL good! There appear to be far more schedules and instructions for relieving sanctions and making amends by releasing funds and arranging all sorts of other mitigations. The spacing and paragraph breaks (carriage returns for older folks like my peer group) and spaces and tabs arranged in numerous and varying combinations seemingly just to make find/replace in order to rid the document of these wastes of space, memory in files, and headaches for those attempting such cleansing of the document and I am sure was also used to make the number of pages more impressive as after editing the document, it was, as a whole, approximately thirty-five percent fewer pages in my Word file (your savings may differ due to different font, font size, spacing, margins, and general and specific preferences). This was made all the more obvious when according to references from Buzzfeed late Tuesday it was noted that the Russian Foreign Ministry appears to have published a full text of the agreement on their website and the text is some 159 pages long. Even our copy of the full deal as on the Russian site we found it still was well over three hundred pages on Word (same disclaimer as above) and despite leaving entire lines with a few numbers, a company name, the description such as ‘vessel’ as in a ship followed by its registry number in the following line and the owning company in the line above and we all know there was absolutely no manner of formatting which could have reduced those three lines into at most two and more often just a single line, heavens forbid as everybody knows that the more pages used to print and publish an agreement and the more weighty the tome the more impressive and validated any agreement is perceived to be, thus the sometimes ten or even more lines wasted between sections. Another reason for the extensive and cryptic formatting was that they could spend weeks upon weeks arguing over the exact format for each section and again how each section was to be separated from the section before and after it as well as other format issues. Such puts me in the mindset of how I felt upon finding out that the Viet Nam War negotiations held in Paris spent weeks at the outset standing and debating the size, shape and seating at the table they would eventually agree upon and need to order such that neither side felt slighted or inferior. There was one thing I did notice was that the sections which referenced the specifics which Iran had to meet the spacing was far more complex and rendered parts difficult to discern their actual and accurate meaning until the formatting was rendered to something resembling normal while the sectors explaining those things which were in Iran’s favor were far more normally spaced and the wasted lines could have been explained that the wasted spaces were intended to delineate items and make them near impossible to be misinterpreted. There was one item I found outright painful, and it oddly enough was not executing the reformatting as I found two algorithms which neatened up large sections very nicely, which was the intentional use of referencing to outside documents, the reference to the Annexes, all of which simply stood to make interpretations more easily twisted and applied as well as the dependence of Iran to be forthcoming and cooperative and the number of items which were to be arranged and enforced between Iran and Russia, as that could never go awry.

 

So, we have an agreement which will be interpreted by people in very likely broadly different manners and we will find that all sides will be able to read into the document exactly that which they desire to happen and not to apply or apply requirements and implementations which will assist in their desired endings. We also have an agreement which has entire sectors which depend completely on Iranian compliance enforcement, Iran being forthcoming with vital information necessary for actually being able to enforce the terms and stipulations and all of it also will heavily depend on Iran self-policing and having complete honest sincerity in all dealings and not to engage in delaying inspections and providing complete and candid forthcoming on all items even to include reporting if and where they open clandestine enrichment facility which would kind of ruin any concept of a clandestine enrichment, wouldn’t it. Placing the onus for any part of an agreement of such magnitude and of vital importance onto Iran to police themselves after knowing that they had broken numerous stipulations of the previous framework agreements which were vital for the numerous extensions, one after another, with each extension bring a poor deal to a bad deal, to an awful deal all the way to a downright dangerous deal which in all too many ways will prove unenforceable. The one truth to come out of this arms agreement is that President Barack Hussein Obama will have his legacy which will empower Iran potentially thrusting them into a level of leadership of a higher level than they currently possess in the Middle East. Another possibility is the agreement might also empower every last terrorist group supported by Iran such as and not limited to Hezballah, Hamas, IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) and other terror forces in the three cities of the tri-border area in South America where the borders of Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina meet and are populated by Hezballah in addition to the IRGC and other terrorist operatives who often arrive to receiving training at one of the three cities in the region which serve as home for the terror masters, operatives and trainees; Ciudad del Este, Foz do Iguaçu and Puerto Iguazú (see map below)

 

Tri_Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

Tri_Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994 bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

 

The one thing that is guaranteed is that there will be shrill voices and booming baritones claiming the wonderful aspects and the dreaded coming events and wars because of this deal for the next year and a half as this will be carried on through next November milking this agreement for every political point which can be bled out of it. The ones praising the brilliance and great deal of restraint the deal has forced upon Iran will accuse the detractors to the deal of continuing to kick a dead horse, exactly as they claimed on those opposing ObamaCare and those who deny that any climactic changes are caused by people while those being castigated in such a negative light will reply accusing the other side as being led by their noses and wearing blinders in order to only see that which they have any desire to see. The not so wonderful thing about this situation is that both sides are right about this being carried too far as there may still be a way to alter Iranian desire to build a nuclear arsenal through sanctions but it may require the world cut back on Pistachios as well as oil. The biggest fear is what a nuclear armed Iran would actually do. Would they attack Kuwait and Saudi Arabia or at least grab ahold of the oil fields from both nations whose sole economic health is reliant on those oil fields. Then Iran would be gobbling up the remaining Gulf oil states down the Persian Gulf to also grab ahold of the other side of the Straits of Hormuz giving the Iranians total control of this vital waterway.

 

Further, what else might Iran do with nuclear weapons? There is the chance that Iran would decide that it was not receiving sufficient air, logistical and manpower support when engaging the Islamic State and simply detonate a single tactical nuclear weapon over their headquarters during a period of time they were holding a meeting so as to catch as many of the top leaders of the Islamic State and thus cause dissention and doubt amongst those who thought ISIS really was the invincible return of the Caliph and the establishment of the next Caliphate which would in time rule all of the earth under Sharia as they interpret the Quran and the Hadiths. Such a calamity would spell the end of those dreams and the nightmares they would have wrought on the world. But stopping ISIS would only empower an even greater threat, and even greater evil, Iran and their delusions of being the chosen of Allah to subjugate all and put all of mankind on their knees prostrate facing Mecca. Yes, they would demand we surrender all dignity and prostrate ourselves facing Mecca and the Kaaba (Arabic: الكعبة‎‎ Meaning is ‘cube’) at the center of Islam’s most sacred mosque, Al-Masjid al-Haram (Arabic: المسجد الحرام Meaning literally translated as “the sacred mosque”). Held within the Kaaba is a fragment of a meteorite, a black rock which is described in the Quran with a quote attributed to Mohammad claiming that the Black Stone had “descended from Paradise whiter than milk but the sins of the sons of Adam had made it black.” Which brings us to another belief that the leadership of Iran and has been announcing since 1979, first by the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran the first Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini and now by his successor Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei that Iran should and will, if it is Allah’s will and Allah does indeed will it, for Iran to take control of and tend to the holy cities of Mecca and Medina. This high hope has often been stated and exclaimed while also including other holy places which hold great importance to Shia Islam such as the holy city of Qom (Persian: قم‎) in Iran and in Iraq the holy cities of Najaf (Arabic: النجف‎) and Karbala (Arabic: كربلاء‎) which are currently being contest for control between the Islamic State or ISIS and the Iraqi military backed by Iranian IRGC forces who are expected to win the day despite the less than stellar performance of the Iraqi military forces. These leaders of Iran and of all Shiites also strive to take possession of the great responsibility of tending the highest holy sites in all of Islam of Mecca (Arabic: مكة‎) and Medina (Arabic: المدينة المنورة‎) which were all the cities mentioned initially by the Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini and was not until much later when the Iranian Shia leadership saw inroads through Hamas to open additional front that they could manage to aid Hezballah did the mention of Jerusalem come into their lexicon where it slowly evolved and may finally be cracking into the top five, but definitely as the Arab Palestinians tell the story, the third holiest site in Islam. One might wonder when Jerusalem will best Medina out of the number two slot though Medina has held the number two slot for quite some time when it fell from the number one slot it held while Mohammed rose his army in Medina but when he conquered the city of his birth, Mecca, his true allegiance became obvious as Mecca became the top city and Iran means to one day soon add Mecca and Medina to their list of possessions which may come quicker than anybody realizes. Once the Iranian backed Houthis take control over all of Yemen, Iran will be able to open their second front from the south coordinated with their forces in Iraq to the north and a main force entering through Kuwait in the efforts to takeover Mecca, Medina and the Saudi, Kuwaiti, Bahraini and other Gulf States’ oil fields cementing Iran as the leader of all Islam and the holder of all the cards as they by themselves will be the entirety of the oil replacing OPEC.

 

The full ramifications of establishing this agreement with Iran and the clearing of their path to nuclear weapons will depend on whether they plan on waiting a decade or decide to take the potentially hundreds upon hundreds of billions of dollars about to come flooding into their coffers and improve the life of the people or go full steam and head-rushing their way to miniaturized warheads simply by warming up to Kim Jong-un and buying his plans or purchasing possibly more advanced warhead designs from China or Russia in order to show their appreciation for their support during these negotiations. The easy prediction is that the world will realize the extents of Iran’s goals faster rather than later as once they possess nuclear weapons the real game starts and all bets are off as to the number of lives it will cost to end their visions of supremacy and world domination. Do not get this wrong as if the leaders of the world play cutesy with Iran and attempt to mollify them as they did in the mid to late 1930s with Hitler they will be giving Iran the Arabian peninsula, Iraq, Yemen and Oman followed soon afterwards the world will probably applaud Iran as they bring the rule of law and establish order as they extend their growing conquests through force of arms and negotiations with a weak and intimidated, risk averse and conflict avoidant Western World adding Somalia, Eretria and Djibouti giving Iran a foothold in the Horn of Africa from which to threaten Ethiopia, South Sudan, the Sudan and Egypt from the south while threatening Egypt from the Sinai and Arabia Peninsulas. From there they would likely co-opt Turkey through an alliance and then take revenge as Persians on Greece for the conquest and ending of the Persian Empire by Alexander the Great, and yes they remember their defeat and will seek to avenge that degradation and Greece is in no shape to resist or fight back. This would place them on the doorstep of Europe and the NATO nations would likely defend Greece with the great and forceful war plan used by France and Britain to defend Czechoslovakia from Hitler except they would hand Greece over in one chunk and not bother with giving half of the islands at a time. After Greece, who knows where next, the entirety of North Africa followed by Andalusia (Arabic: الأندلس‎), which is called Spain since the Inquisition freed Spain from Muslim rule starting in 1492 (a date not particularly celebrated by Jews as we lost just as big if not more so than the Muslims as Spain desired to rid themselves from all non-Catholics which included Jews as well as Muslims except the Jews had no weapons or armies, so guess who paid for any Spanish loss and on the other side the Muslim of the Umayyad Caliphate who also used the Jews as a group upon which their angers could be easily pointed as the Jews made for easy, low-risk targets so we lost on both sides of the Inquisition.

 

After such a move the Muslims would be at their high water mark before Christendom became militarily more advanced and began pushing the Muslims out of their conquests resulting from their breakout from the Arabic Peninsula in the early and mid-eighth century through to the fall of the Ottoman Empire in 1917 though the decline started around the mid-seventeenth century. The next rise of Islam may well be under the leadership of a nuclear powered Shiite Islamic revolution which will first convert the now majority Sunni Muslims likely with a ferocity formerly not seen in modern times until the bursting of ISIS onto the world’s stage though the Assad Family had their atrocities and there have been others such as the terror for so many under Saddam Hussein, it is just ISIS was chosen by the media to emphasize and place their atrocities before the world to view and feel a condemnatory rage. What the reason behind such a media exposure we may never know but, in the terms of old showmen everywhere, “You ain’t seen nothing yet!” As others have said, hold on to your hats as the ride is about to begin and it is going to be a wild ride. Like any old-school rollercoasters, the ride may start slow but watch out for that first step, it’s a doozy.

 

Entire Edited for ease of Reading Transcript of Iran Nuclear Agreement with the P5+1 Group

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 24, 2015

President Obama Nuclear Free World Duplicity Starts with Israel

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To be completely honest, President Obama would have started his quest for a nuclear free world by destroying the nuclear weapons of the United States followed by those of the rest of NATO and immediately thereafter the Israeli nuclear weapons once it was actually established they exist and then and only then he might have requested that Russia and China please follow his bold initiative. Fortunately for the free world, and even the less free world, President Obama was not allowed to follow through with his bold plan of destroying all of the United States nuclear weapons followed soon by the rest of the nuclear weapons from the free world and then hoped the less than free world would kindly follow suit, after all, what could possibly go wrong with such a brilliant and inspired plan. Certainly Russian President Vlad (the Invader) Putin would have leapt at such an opportunity to be rid of his nuclear weapons as would have the Chinese leadership, destroying them over as many American targets as their generals could identify as required for the easy invasion and takeover of the United States and her allies. We would like to advise the Generals and others responsible for the United States nuclear arsenal to check the storage bunkers and nuclear weapons deployed on your boomer subs and elsewhere to assure that they are still containing their warheads and not some equivalent item purchased at Toys R Us which look realistic, well, as realistic as plastic made in China toys would look like. The same advice goes for any NATO or other nation who allowed anybody from the Obama administration anywhere near their nuclear weapons as his dream was to denuclearize any nations where such proved possible starting with the United States. The idea was probably taken from the minds of some of the greatest planners whose desire was to put an end to nuclear weapons, or at least that was the title of their end of term thesis for their sophomore year term papers in university where President Obama must have gotten the plan that if the United States and the rest of NATO rid themselves of nuclear weapons the rest of the world would follow their example.

 

Recently Israel was privileged to feel the weight of such an attempt themselves. Before getting to the realities of President Obama and his plan to denuclearize the Middle East, in all fairness we must thank him for preventing yet another attempt by Israel’s helpful and friendly neighbors to take the first steps to a peaceful and nuclear free Middle East by passing a plan which would remove any nuclear weapons from Israel to allow their destruction thus permitting a nuclear free Middle East and an Israel without their sole deterrence against the use of chemical, biological or potentially nuclear weapons by Israel’s neighboring countries in a first strike assault which might very well destroy any residual ability of Israel to resist a combined assault. Thanks are due President Obama whose Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power for Vetoing the plan presented to denuclearize the Middle East by destroying the Israeli nuclear weapons providing such could be proven to exist while doing nothing to assure that Israel’s neighbors never produced such weapons, only forbidding Israel of possessing such weapons. The motion was struck down due to its inherently one-sided aims and wording. Such plans have been placed on hold by Israel’s neighbors as their former attempts to use military force alone proved insufficient to overrun Israel with conventional arms. Any plans Israel’s neighboring nations might have entertained for a chemical, biological or other WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) first round attack has been deterred by the stated policy the Israelis have let be known that their response to any such WMD first strike would immediately result in the complete destruction of the offending nation’s major cities and military instillations in a single devastating strike. This warning went hand-in-hand with the Israeli ambiguity about whether or not she had developed and produced nuclear weaponry. This has often been labelled the Israeli nukes in the basement policy which does not admit nor deny by Israeli officials as to whether Israel has a nuclear arsenal. It has been assumed for years that should Israel ever require such weapons that they could likely produce the required numbers in quick order, another way of claiming that Israel has the capability but it is unknown whether or not Israel had ever actually produced such weapons or simply made the necessary components but leaving them without their nuclear cores which would only be placed within these otherwise unusable weapons as necessary for their deployment. Quite a preposterous plan but whatever makes the rest of the world happy.

 

Still, this past week saw United States Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation, Thomas Countryman, and a parade of supporting officials visit Israel with briefcases full of plans by which Israel could take the bold initial step and destroy her nuclear weapons as a demonstration of her good will and deep desire for a nuclear free Middle East. This plan was being forwarded by the same State Department overseeing the negotiations by the P5+1 and Iran which are designing a plan that might prevent Iran from developing and arming themselves with nuclear weapons at the latest in ten years. Are Israelis really supposed to believe that should they destroy their nuclear weapons, assuming such exist, in the hopes that Iran and the rest of the Muslim Middle East and North Africa (MENA) would simply forgo developing and building their own nuclear stockpiles? I think we all know where Israel formally declaring her possession of nuclear warheads and then destroying them immediately thereafter would lead and it is not a pretty sight. Let’s take a look at the MENA nations and visualize a realistic view of the MENA states. The currently most stable states would have to be Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia with the Gulf States and Egypt and both Saudi Arabia with the Gulf States and Egypt are teetering on the brink of full scale war. Jordan is stable for now with her northern neighbor, Syria, in complete meltdown, her easterly neighbor, Iraq, heading full speed to oblivion and ISIS sitting just off both those borders and in a full scale conquest of the Middle East in their future plans. Egypt is facing all-out war with the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda not to mention the failed state and ISIS breeding grounds to her west in the form of Libya. The Sudan and South Sudan are still in a state of turmoil and the rest of the nations in the region of the Horn of Africa in varying states of dysfunction. Heading west from there and you leave the warlords of Somalia behind and take up Boko Haram, not exactly a pretty picture. Yemen is falling before the Iranian proxy army of the Houthis while Saudi Arabia is battling to prevent Iran from basically taking up occupation of their southern border, a wise idea. Iran is perched to slowly stretch her tentacles across the Middle East as well as into South America, particularly Argentina, and in Venezuela as well as into Central America and into Mexico and from there infiltrate the rest of North America. Israel is about the sole island of peace and tranquility in the nations making up MENA and may be the only nation without any delusions or desires about controlling the world or just their region of the world but simply desires being permitted to live quietly within the borders promised her at the end of World War I, the war to end all wars. The problem Israel faces is the world desires her destruction by any means possible selling her down the river at a moment’s notice.

 

So, what did bring United States Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation, Thomas Countryman, and supporting cast to Israeli shores? It appears that with their recently garnered agreement with Russia, the United States has chosen to attempt to design a nuclear-free Middle East starting where else, with Israel. Why does everything always begin with Israel, want regional peace, have Israel make the required sacrifices, want a nuclear free Middle East, start by forcing Israel to rid herself of her sole deterrence against the blood-stained hands of her neighboring nations. Want an Arab-Israeli peace treaty, have Israel surrender to every Arab demand and then there will be peace. In all things simply sacrifice Israel and all will be well. How about commit to the demands of International Law and enforce the treaties and then leave Israel out of your further plans and dreams, we are quite happy living between the Mediterranean and Jordan. We will face our terrorist forces in a manner even more careful and respecting the innocents behind and amongst who these bloodthirsty terrorists hide than other nations when they strike at terrorist forces. The State Department assault team brought with them the tried and proven false concept that an Israeli agreement to the idea of destroying her nuclear weapons would be a catalyst for the rest of the Middle East. Actually that would be a correct statement providing the catalyst Israel would be providing would be for a WMD assault on Israel preceding another all-out attempt by all those who could be marshalled to destroy Israel once again. For such an adventure even the Iranians would coordinate with the Saudis and Hezballah and ISIS would work in harmony until the end when they would once again turn their weapons on each other. The Israeli Foreign Minister’s office refused to make any comments to approaches by regular news agencies pointing out that Countryman’s visit and the items being debated are such that “the subject is a sensitive one, we will not talk about it.” No argument with that statement and such a position is a proper level of security with which to approach any such negotiations, especially such negotiations with the United States and the Obama Administration. Not only is the Israeli ownership of nuclear tipped ballistic missiles one which Israel treats with the most dogged ambiguity that probably the best idea would be silence.

 

But there are other problems arising with the Obama administration, some of which reared their ugly heads again this week as President Obama was touting his support amongst the American Jewish community as proof of his, kindnesses and strongly positive relations with Israel, a formidable idea lacking reality which puzzles many Israelis, especially those with relatives who continue to support President Obama. Speaking with the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg, President Obama stated that there is “not really a bifurcation with respect to the attitudes of the Jewish American community about me. I consistently received overwhelming majority support from the Jewish community, and even after all the publicity around the recent differences that I’ve had with Prime Minister Netanyahu, the majority of the Jewish American community still supports me, and supports me strongly.” Be that as it may, there is also no real bifurcation with respect to the attitudes of the Jewish Israeli community about President Obama and it is exactly the opposite as that he credits the American Jewish community. The President was not done weaving a woebegone tale attempting to fog reality by that old but true friend of American equivalence, comparing apples to oranges. The President went further stating, “But you can’t equate people of good will who are concerned about those issues with somebody who is hostile towards Israel. And you know, I actually believe that most American Jews, most Jews around the world, and most Jews in Israel recognize as much. And that’s part of the reason why I do still have broad-based support among American Jews. It’s not because they dislike Israel, it’s not because they aren’t worried about Iran having a nuclear weapon or what Hezbollah is doing in Lebanon. It’s because I think they recognize, having looked at my history and having seen the actions of my administration, that I’ve got Israel’s back, but there are values that I share with them that may be at stake if we’re not able to find a better path forward than what feels like a potential dead-end right now.”

 

The old-school of equating the views towards Israel between Israeli Jews and American Jews no longer flies. The vast majority of Zionist Jews have made Aliyah and are living in Israel and what remains of Jewish community in the United States and Europe as well are those Jews who will only move to Israel if they find themselves facing threats to their lives, and many would even ignore such as that claiming loudly that such cannot happen here as we are assimilated and are an integral part of the community. That was the exact claim made in Russia before the Czarist pogroms, in Germany and across Europe before the Nazis and their holocaust attempted genocide of European Jews and was said initially by many Russian Jews and other Jews trapped behind the Iron Curtain though coming on the heels of the Nazis the Communist destructive treatment of their Jews was more readily believed this time through as they had actually seen this before and recognized the steel fist inside a velvet glove. Truth is the blinders are back on the Jews in Europe and the Western World and even on a sizeable minority of Jews here in Israel who largely live in the more plush areas of Tel Aviv and its surrounding areas while the Jews in the exterior, the term for fly-over country in Israel where Tel Aviv is defined as the core and the ignorant masses who are not as sophisticated, educated, celebrated, refined and worldly as their betters, realize that the world is again turning to destroy the Jew, both the nations of the Jew, Israel, and the Jew wherever they reside. It appears as it may only be a period of time before the records of every person suspected of being a Jew has the records of their grandparents or even great-grandparents researched by some special committee in order to determine who are the Jews amongst their populations. In Europe it will be done right out in the open behind shaded windows through which nobody dares to peek while in the United States it will be done by checking the religion every suspect’s for-bearers gave upon arriving at Ellie Island or wherever their port of entry was or even when their first relatives arrived and this will be carried out by the Department of State and Homeland Security in the utmost of secure manners with only those who can be trusted performing such tasks. Meanwhile, every conceivable effort will be tried to bring Israel down to ruination weakening her before permitting her Arab neighbors to devour her eviscerated corpse denuded of the ability to fight as the IDF is denied the replacement parts to maintain their sophisticated weapons systems and denied the raw materials to forge her own replacements and new systems all the while arming her enemies with the latest and greatest weaponry conceivable. In the United States, where Israel has been brought into reliance for arms, there will be an extra layer of approval required for any military shipment or dual use provisions where as in the Gaza operations Protective Edge the State Department was required to approve any arms resupply before they could be dispatched, a whole new layer put in place by President Obama such that resupply would be delayed until after the fighting was completed. Had the fight continued long enough Israel could have been weakened sufficiently that Hamas might have overrun Israel almost without outside assistance. It may become desired policy in the United States in the near future should the anti-Semitism, anti-Israelism and anti-Zionism continue its meteoric rise and then Israel may have nowhere to turn for assistance and be put in the predicament of resupplying herself from that point forward.

 

Lastly, President Obama spoke at a Washington D.C. Synagogue of Adas Israel. The President relied on the old bromides claiming to be, “an honorary member of the tribe.” and that “my commitment to Israel’s security is and always will be unshakeable. The people of Israel must always know America has its back, and America will always have its back.” And so on. President Obama gave his stock untruths about how his efforts will make the world, especially Israel, safe from any Iranian nuclear threats. His statement which received the strongest applause was, “I feel a responsibility to speak out honestly about what I think will lead to long-term security and to the preservation of a true democracy in the Jewish homeland.” One can only wonder if by preserving the Israeli democracy that included his dispatching of many of his own campaign’s organizers and staff to attempt and prevent the reelection of Prime Minister Netanyahu. He also gave strong supportive comments for the two state solution, an effort which has been murdered beyond any potential to be revived by Mahmoud Abbas and the rest of the Fatah, Hamas, Palestinian Authority and other Arab leadership. All the while as he spoke President Obama knew that he had State Department staff and Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation, Thomas Countryman in Israel pressuring the government and military to allow for the United States to cover Israel with their nuclear blanket while Israel dismantled and destroyed her own nuclear weapons whose opaque existence has likely saved Israel from chemical or biological attacks. This was the concurrent effort of having Israel’s back meant though the congregants in the predominantly Democrat liberal progressive neighborhood surrounding Washington D.C. who largely value their stock portfolios over the safety of Israel, a population which voted by large majorities for Obama in both elections gave President Obama the same cover that the dwindling Jewish presence in Iran gives the Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei cover as not being an anti-Semite, simply being troubled by the government in Israel, a statement which numerous Iranians leaders have made while the old and venerable Head Rabbi stands silently at their side presumably by his own choice. The difference is that there is a large Jewish community supporting President Obama but many, as we can attest to from our years living amongst such Jews before relocating to the friendlier and vibrant Jewish communities which make up Israel, have more concern for their status-symbol lives than the continued existence of Israel. The Jewish communities in the United States with very few exceptions are moribund and weighted towards an elderly congregation as the youth have largely intermarried or assimilated to where their Jewishness is at best going to high holiday services and having some semblance of a Seder in their homes most Passovers while also sporting the Chanukah Bush which resembles its close cousin, the Christmas tree in every way, shape and form. Jewish life in this world depends on Israel and without Israel it will die within two generations which is why Israel is important, and not just to the Jews but to the world in ways and means measured in intangible and esoteric means impossible to describe with any justice here. Perhaps some day we will attempt such an explanation though this is far from a promise, just something we wish we were anywhere near capable of doing such justice. Even the Rabbis we have met tell of this promise of having Jews in the world enhancing so many areas in so many detectable and hidden ways that the inventions and discoveries become a minor side of these effects. Until then simply remain aware that Israel is vital if there are to be such as Jews and their influences to make a better world for all to remain that force for goodness.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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