Beyond the Cusp

April 3, 2015

Deal that Assures a Nuclear Armed Iran

 

The one overriding fact which we have known and has been confirmed by multiple sources is that Iran has what they refer to as “R-265 spheroidal three-stage warheads” which are almost ready to load atop the Mullahs missiles within their nosecones. The Shabab-3 or Zelzal-3 missiles are renamed from their North Korean origins named No-dong-1 and Ro-dong 1 which were in turn basically renamed from their Soviet designed Scud B with later upgraded missiles being based on the Scud C and Scud D. The Shahab-3 or Zelzal-3 have been set to launch reaching Tel Aviv and delivering the warhead for an airburst detonation approximately 650 meters over the greater Tel Aviv metropolitan area. This would make this detonation closely replicate the atomic bombs detonations over Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The accuracy of these warheads will depend greatly on whether they will be spin stabilized before reentry or simply allowed to tumble around their center of gravity upon reentry as the earliest of this variant of missile were designed to do. The reentry capabilities along with the possible use of GPS in the spun reentry advanced warhead having an accuracy of as close as within two-hundred meters and if simply using the tumbling reentry which would not have GPS capability would then drop the accuracy to approximately one kilometer. One does need to take into consideration that like horseshoes, nuclear devices have the quality that closeness counts quite heavily.

 

Iran was known to have had difficulties with their tumbling warheads self-destructing upon reentry. We can expect that this problem was eliminated either through stronger warhead construction or simply by designing warheads to spin upon reentry thus eliminating the problem caused by tumbling while also increasing accuracy, a double bonus. Further, if a Shahab-3 or Zelzal-3 were launched from western Iran, say Tabriz, Iran, then any variant of these missiles would have sufficient range to reach Tel Aviv and the updated version could easily make such a trip and would have sufficient range to be fired from downtown Tehran thus making a big show around such a launch. There are still unanswered questions about the advanced multi-stage missiles which Iran may have developed and their potential range. Such ICBMs would easily be capable of striking within the United States with some estimates placing even Chicago within the limits of the most advanced Iranian multi-stage missiles. It is also known that Russia shared with Iran their plans for a Super EMP device which is claimed to be easily placed atop any Iranian missile and not only having no interference with its range but as it is lighter than most other warheads, including conventional warheads, would actually permit for an increased range. It has been verified that Iran is capable of striking anywhere in Europe up to and including Paris with London just beyond their insured and validated missile capabilities. On the other hand, even should Iran not have yet to developed an actual ICBM capable of striking within the United States, Iran has allies in Central and South Americas who would bring much of the United States well within range though assembly and setting up such a rocket launch would likely be detected well before its launch.

 

The greatest fear of an Iranian strike on the continental United States would come from one of two sources; either the Iranians have developed a multi-stage or possibly a single stage ICBM with sufficient range to cover the distances from Tehran which is 9879 kilometers or 6139 miles or 5334 nautical miles to New York City, 10200 kilometers or 6338 miles or 5507 nautical miles to Washington D.C, 11846 kilometers or 7361 miles or 6396 nautical miles to San Francisco, 10880 kilometers or 6761 miles or 5875 nautical miles to St. Louis and lastly10755 kilometers or 6683 miles or 5807 nautical miles to the furthest point, Seattle, Washington in the northwest. Of course there is the fact that Iran has perfected the ability of launching one of their Shabab-3 or Zelzal-3 missiles from aboard a freighter camouflaged as carrying regular cargo in shipping containers which would place every last part of the United States within easy range and also not allow sufficient time for any coastal cities such as Boston, Baltimore, Washington D.C, New York City, Atlanta, Houston, Los Angeles, San Diego and its Navy Base at Coronado, San Francisco and Seattle to react and implement anti-missile units into position to protect them from such attacks launched from less than fifty miles off the coast as the freighter would simply appear to be heading for the docks to download their cargo and then in a short transformation time become an active missile launching base with perhaps half a dozen or more missiles to attempt to launch at various targets before they were engaged by Air Force, Navy or Army air assets destroying the offending ship.

 

These frightening realities brings us back to the crux of the situation, the Iranian ability to covertly manufacture nuclear warheads for any of these systems and thus bring their mass chants of “Death to America! Death to Israel!” to fruition and by doing so place itself as the leader of the Muslim world, and more importantly placed all the Arab nations in a weakened position with their populations suddenly desiring to join the Shiite leaders of Iran giving up on the apparently weaker Sunni leaders. As we know, nothing succeeds like success and mortally wounding both the United States and Israel would definitely depict Iran as the strong horse, the stallion amongst a herd of neutered geldings. The supposed impossibility is for Iran to successfully conceal at some secret instillation a series of twenty or more cascaded super-sonic centrifuges spinning Uranium-Hexafluoride gas (UF6) with each centrifuge pulling its gas from the central cylinder of the previous centrifuge and spinning the slightly purer UF6 gas which allows the lighter isotope of Uranium 235 (U-235) from the heavier isotope of Uranium 238 (U-238) with each stage of the cascaded centrifuges makes its contribution of stripping away the U-238 spinning it to the sides of the centrifuge while leaving the U-235. Originally the Uranium Ore mined from the ground is made up of over 99% U-238 and mere traces of the desired U-235. The entire negotiations revolved around how Iran could be monitored thus making the production of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) impossible and easily detectable thus only permitting Iran to enrich their ore to make Uranium that is of a low enrichment no higher than twenty percent and very little of that with much of their Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) limited to five percent or three percent which can be used solely in their reactors and also used in medical procedures which may use enriched Uranium as high as twenty-percent.

 

According to President Obama, there now exists, thanks to United States Secretary of State John Kerry, an agreement which “has reached an historic understanding with Iran which, if fully implemented, will prevent it from a nuclear weapon.” President Obama continued convincingly claiming, “I am convinced that if this framework leads to a final comprehensive deal it will make our country, our allies and our world safer.” President Obama literally lit up as he boasted, “Today after many months…we have achieved the framework for…(a) deal, and it is a good deal, a deal that meets our core objectives,” he stipulated that it cuts off every pathway to developing a nuclear weapon. Continuing along I was worried that the American negotiators were going to simply roll over on every point simply to give President Obama a foreign policy achievement which would cover three pathways to prevent Iran attaining nuclear weapons. The first pathway blocked was the Arak Heavy Water reactor where Iran will not be permitted to collect and process the spent rods allowing them to process Plutonium. Iran has also agreed to never build another heavy water facility. The second pathway involved Iran simply only being permitted using one-third of their existing centrifuges, closing its Fordo Plant for the next ten years. Further, Iran must not stockpile materials required for building a nuclear weapon for the next 15 years. They must also neutralize any Uranium making it useless in the manufacture of a nuclear weapon. Iran has theoretically agreed upon a twenty year full inspection routine which is presumably so invasive and thorough that should Iran transgress on any of the former items that the world will know of it long before the Iranians are able to reach building a nuclear weapon. That begs the question as to what if the inspections is where they renege, then the world would be blind to any other forbidden acts or clandestine work towards the manufacture of a weapon.

 

The entire framework depends on Iran permitting free and untethered inspections of their every platform where it is suspected that work towards a nuclear device is progressing. The agreement also depends on Iran being at least a full year away from its breakout point, something where Israel disagrees claiming they have approximately six weeks or less to a breakout point thus making many of the points stressed by President Obama appear optimistic. This so-called framework also depends on the fact that President Obama and the Iranians agree on exactly what each word of terminology actually mean and the definition of every term. This framework is also still months or even years from being an actual agreement and meanwhile the Iranians are refusing to answer direct questions from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), continuing to spin their centrifuges including those at Fordo, and working on any unfinished items on their way to a nuclear weapon. There is many a slip ‘twixt the spoon and the tongue. This has proven to be excessively valid when dealing with the Iranians. They have often come back after agreeing to stipulated terms and explained that what the P5+1 thought some phrase means is not even close to what the Iranians interpreted as the meaning. It is very similar to Princess Bride when the Spaniard, Inigo Montoya, stated to Vizzini, “You keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means.” The Iranians have already backtracked when confronted with actual implementation on previous agreements claiming that there must have been an unfortunate misunderstanding which will then entail weeks of straightening out a misunderstanding claimed by Iran and by the time everything has been reworded properly the entire section of the agreement will have been basically neutered and rewritten to favor the Iranians progressing to wholesale production of nuclear weapons. My fears is that in these negotiations that the United States will have proven by the end that they have been completely hoodwinked and made to appear bonkers with Iran getting everything they desired when all is said and done and every paper signed making a furious roar but signifying nothing. The question the world should figure out is who will be the first victim once Iran has nuclear weapons, Israel, the United States or possibly Saudi Arabia or Egypt. That is the question which has the experts completely vexed and unknowing each giving their own expert advice, my not so expert advice is first will be the United States and it will prevent their retaliating while they start frantically attempting to restore the power grid with minimal fatalities allowing Iran a free hand to accomplish whatever their evil little heart’s desire. After taking out the United States from the game, the Iranians will know that they have built the world’s largest deliverable nuclear stockpile and then they will begin to start using them to attain their own ends. When Iran starts down this path using their nuclear devices, then the world will understand true chaos meant to facilitate their ends and opening the world to such chaos in order to bring on the Twelfth Imam. These negotiations are actually Iran buying time while they assemble their nuclear arsenal and plot the best way to maximize the effects and ramifications of their utilizing all of their weapons in order to cement their place as the new hegemonic power in the world. The Iranians, especially their rulers, are set upon returning Iran to the glories and conquests of the entire world as had their forefathers, the Persians. This is also another reason that the Iranians desire to conquer or at least defeat the Americans as they are seen as the new Greek empire because of their governance using so many of the Greek concepts of democracy and republic. The time to start worrying is when the Iranians complete their talking as that means they are done with talking and now believe it is the time for them to act. That will be the time to have your plans ready as the Iranians will be committed to accomplishing theirs and that you can bet on and take it to the bank.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 25, 2013

Iran Deal Made to Avoid Need for Military Intervention

A deal was agreed to between Iran and the P5+1 (five permanent members of the Security Council which are United States, Russia, China, Britain and France plus one other nation, Germany) which has been heralded in headlines as “Iran and Western Powers Reach Nuclear Deal” despite the fact that Russia and China were also a part of these negotiations. Why should the headlines be any more accurate than the following reports which claim that a great achievement has been reached which will end the threat of Iran becoming a nuclear armed state and thus removes any need for military actions in order to prevent Iran from developing and building nuclear weapons. The agreement supposedly consists of Iranian promises not to retain any additional stores of enriched uranium above their current levels though they have the right to continue spinning away to their hearts content twenty-four/seven. Theoretically the Iranians are supposed to transfer any enriched uranium beyond their current stored levels to a third party nation which nobody seems able to name. There is no current quantity noted under which the Iranians are supposed to keep their stores. Further, the Iranians do not have to turn off, dismantle, or otherwise negate the use of their 18,000 plus centrifuges of which a good number (some reports put it as high as 500) are second generation centrifuges which are able to enrich three and a half percent enriched uranium into ninety percent plus weapons grade uranium in a matter of a couple of weeks. There is no mention of any limit on adding even more centrifuges which some sources claim they were in the process of installing during the period they were negotiating. These sources report that the Iranians have already installed at least another thousand centrifuges of which all are second generation which gives them a potential breakout using their three and a half percent enriched uranium in a matter of two weeks, three at the worst. The entire deal also rests with assurances from the Iranians that they will subject their nuclear sites to regular inspections by international inspectors, which means the IAEA, and they even said they would allow surprise inspections. Well, if they promised to allow any and all forms of inspections, what could go wrong there? One certainty is that very few in Israel are satisfied or even hopeful about the success of this “Bad Deal” preventing Iran from turning nuclear at their merest whim. So, with all the conflicting stories and disparate reactions and supportive statements coming from one side and denunciation from another and Iran’s presumed moderate President Rouhani claiming on Twitter, “A positive agreement, made possible through the tireless efforts of the negotiating teams – this opens new horizons for us,” what exactly did this deal deliver and what will most likely be the ramifications going forward?

 

The first step in understanding the results of the deal made with Iran is to understand what were the aims and objectives of United States President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry. The aims and objectives were made evident last week after Secretary of State Kerry met with the Royal Family of Saudi Arabia and with Prime Minister Netanyahu in Israel before heading on to the deliberations with Iran in Geneva, Switzerland. During these meetings Secretary Kerry spelled out exactly what he wished for these two nations’ leaders to hear so as to assuage any concerns and suspicions they may have held over the deliberation with Iran and to calm them assuring them that there was little or no difference between their expectations and view concerning the Iranian nuclear program and that of the American Administration. This worked exactly as planned for as long as the plan remained undisturbed, which was very briefly. As has always seemed to be the case, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry, and this case was no different. Just as the news was breaking last week that an Iran deal was on the cusp of becoming fact, the French and the British informed the Saudis and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu of the real contents of the agreement and those contents bore little resemblance to the story line fed them by Secretary Kerry. Needless to say, both lied to parties took the sobering news rather poorly as far as their trust in the current leadership of the United States is concerned. Immediately after informing the other interested parties about the betrayal they were facing at the hands of President Obama and Secretary Kerry, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius promptly vetoed the agreement ending that session and making this week’s set of negotiations necessary before the American surrender could be consummated. One can only assume what the Saudi Royals feel about this whole affair but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has not been anywhere near as silent as the Saudis in expressing his disgust and disdain for the entire situation and the horrid deal that resulted. President Obama had long ago decided that the main objective he held that was a necessary and required result for the talks with Iran had nothing to do with Iran and their nuclear program and had everything to do with avoiding any military option no matter the consequences and poisoning relations with the remaining allies of the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis were already on their way out the door from relying on the United States for honesty or any true support and the Israelis had their share of skeptics though Prime Minister Netanyahu had attempted to try and talk a supportive line despite all evidence to the contrary.

 

President Obama got the deal he needed and can now retire the tired lie that the military option was still on the table despite the truth, as we had stated here last spring, that the military option may have been on the table but it would never ever be picked up off the table and implemented. Now President Obama can finally bury the military option because as far as he is concerned there is no way possible that Iran can attain nuclear weapons that can be blamed on him. He has done as promised and reached a deal where the representatives of the Iranian Mullocracy would never lie and deceive the President of the United States, the Great Satan’s infidel leader, and develop nuclear weapons anyways. The entire charade was not ever about stopping the Iranian nuclear weapons drive but was about receiving a piece of paper he could wave and claim he had a piece of paper and on that paper was the signature of the Foreign Ministers of Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and Germany as well as that of Secretary of State Kerry and President Obama himself has talked with the moderate President of Iran, Mr. Rouhani who has personally assure him that Iran will stand by every word in their agreement. Of course President Obama has never heard of the concept of “Taqiyyah” which is the Islamic concept that it is proper and required that a Muslim, especially when dealing with the infidel, to lie and deceive in order to advance the position or advantage for the Islamic cause, this especially applies to treaties and agreements with infidel states.  But all of this matters little to President Obama, the holder of a Nobel Peace Prize and now, with Secretary of State Kerry, very possibly a contender for the next Nobel Peace Prize, and wouldn’t he be deserving of such.

 

The fact that all of this eerily resembles a piece of history that is not yet even a single century past should not be lost by those who remember history just because they like to know when they are feeling a severe case of Deja-vu and also believe it is wise to know when to proverbially duck for cover. The similarities should be easily recognized by even those who abhor history once the facts from both cases are presented. The historical reference concerns the Treaty of Munich of 1938 where after all was written, signed and the ink almost dried, Prime Minister of Britain Neville Chamberlain triumphantly stepped from the plane and up to the microphones waving a piece of paper in his hand over his head and stated to the world’s supposed relief, “My good friends, this is the second time there has come back from Germany to Downing Street peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Now I recommend you go home, and sleep quietly in your beds.” Winston Churchill had a response for Prime Minister Chamberlain when he retorted when he spoke in the House of Commons stating, “England has been offered a choice between war and shame. She has chosen shame, and will get war.” I am afraid that we are witnessing much the same today and in more ways than this damning treaty that assures Iran will be bristling with nuclear weapons within three to five years and be capable of launching an EMP attack upon the United States within the next ten to eighteen month, and they have been practicing launching a medium ballistic missile with approximately a 2,000 mile range into low orbit trajectory and exploding it at its apex which is the preferred altitude to explode a low yield high gamma ray energy burst EMP nuclear device off of cargo ships using the Caspian Sea to keep these tests concealed and difficult to closely monitor.

 

But such is purely conjecture and there are other signs that this is Munich redux. During the Munich agreements the treaty worked out between the French and British with the Germans and Italians concerned two items. The first is the less remembered part where there were modifications made to the limitations placed on Germany and the size of its military both armies, air force, naval and generally which is very similar in nature to this present deal made with Iran where we presumably limited their nuclear uranium stores, did nothing about their coming plutonium production, and set up inspections which the Iranians have agreed to allow before and still managed to delay or prevent any meaningful inspections routines to be established. The other half of the Munich deal was to allow the Germans to annex a significant foothold in Northern Czechoslovakia called the Sudeten Lands simply because there existed a large number of German speaking residents who had emigrated there over the years. Secretary of State Kerry on his last visit to Israel, in addition to lying about the deal being pursued with the Iranians, threatened Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli people stating during his appearance on Israel Channel 2 television, “The alternative to getting back to the talks is the potential of chaos,” Kerry said. “Does Israel want a third intifada?” Kerry further stated, “I believe that if we do not resolve the issues between Palestinians and Israelis, if we do not find a way to find peace, there will be an increasing isolation of Israel, there will be an increasing campaign of the de-legitimization of Israel that has been taking place on an international basis. If we do not resolve the question of settlements, and who lives where and what rights they have; if we don’t end the presence of Israeli soldiers perpetually in the West Bank, then there will be an increasing feeling that if you cannot get peace with a leadership that is committed to non-violence, we may wind up with a leadership that is committed to violence.” This was Secretary Kerry’s simple demand in this, Israel must cave to every conceivable Palestinian demand even if that results in Israel pulling all of the Israelis living beyond the Green Line and in East Jerusalem from their homes and neighborhoods and turning everything over to the Palestinian Authority. The simple fact that when Israel released Gaza to the Palestinian Authority, Hamas took control and has since rained thousands upon thousands of rockets into Israel. Should either Hamas or Fatah do the same thing using the Judean Hills and East Jerusalem as their launching zones they will be enabled to strike the most heavily populated areas within Israel placing over nine million people within the range of even the simplest Katyusha rockets. Czechoslovakia fell within months after releasing the northern lands to Germany and neither Britain nor France came to their aid as they were bound to do by treaty. How long will Israel hold out and what will be the cost in lives on both sides if another Arab Israeli war is the result of Israel surrendering Judea and Samaria, the so-called “West Bank” into Arab hands once again leaving a nine mile wide Israel at her center just tempting the combined Arab armies to once again try to drive the Jews into the Sea. History is an awful thing when the world has to repeat the same disasters over and over. The Greek City States laughed and ridiculed King Leonidas when he warned of a half a million man Persian army coming from the east to conquer the Greek city states. He held them at Thermopile for three days before his small band of warriors were wiped out. The Alamo was a front guard sent to stop Santa Anna by a few who saw what was coming. The rest of the Texas Militias remained behind not believing that Santa Ana was coming so soon. They held the Alamo long enough for the rest of the forces to prepare but they too paid the ultimate price. Czechoslovakia paid the price at the beginning of World War II, let us pray Israel does not pay such a price leading to another great conflagration.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: