Beyond the Cusp

January 7, 2014

Iran Will Soon Produce Deployable Nuclear Weapons

In the two months between the announced and much touted framework of an interim agreement reached between the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council) plus Germany, also known as the P5+1, and Iran there has been a number of revealing comments and strategies displayed. The most overlooked but probably of vital importance was that the agreement which was proclaimed to be such a great victory of diplomacy took another three weeks of negotiations before a date of implementation was able to be announced. That date is January 20, 2014, a mere three weeks after the date originally announced by the Obama Administration as the target date agreed to back in November of last year. This was merely one last reminder of what the Iranian goal has been since day one, delay, delay, delay. What was additionally interesting was that after the greatest diplomatic victory ever accomplished without resorting to the use of weapons was not even actually a deal but rather some guidelines necessarily needing fleshing out and further negotiations defining the original vague and broad statements which were otherwise quite meaningless.

 

This fact should give any observer a clue about the entirety of the negotiations, near agreements, bellicose accusations, angry rebuttals, and virtually every other form of diplomatic posturing that can be laughingly called serious negotiations, namely that Iran won the time and the release of funding along with sanctions relief just in time to cover the investments necessary to actually produce a nuclear weapon. Up to this point much of the efforts were in two main areas, first making sufficient enriched Uranium which could be rapidly refined to weapons grade enrichment of 90% and the theoretical research and development of the actual structures and components necessary to build the actual nuclear device. All the Iranians required to accomplish these goals were thousands of centrifuges, sufficient raw Uranium ore or Yellow Cake which is required to produce uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) to feed the centrifuges and scientists with computers and time to develop the actual research into manufacturing the actual weapon. The Iranians have Uranium mines within their borders, produced thousands of centrifuges slowly and steadily over time, procured sufficient Yellow Cake also over time, and had the scientists to design the actual weapon. The one common denominator the Iranians required from the negotiations was time, and that they accomplished.

 

Now the Iranians are entering the final stages for becoming a nuclear armed state, the actual production of the actual weapons. This stage requires far less time than the previous stages but does require far more revenues to attain the needed items and raw materials other than the enriched Uranium and the machinery necessary to produce the components to accuracies which are extremely defined and specific. This was the impetus behind the so-called Iranian change in attitude and willingness to negotiate far more honestly and seriously than previously. The Iranians knew they were going to be required to at least promise to abide by restrictions in order to achieve the release of much of their frozen funds as well as the lifting of particular sanctions in order to procure the rest of the materials required for their final push to nuclear weapons status. This is exactly what the agreement in Geneva accomplished after not simply years but decades of contentious adversarial diplomatic wrangling and debate where Iran had been stalling for time. Negotiating for time requires intransigence, rigid stances, accusations, demands for specific definitions, intricacies and any other stalling method that draws out the period that the negotiations continue. One of the Iranian’s favorite ploys was to feign complicity only to make demands for relief from sanctions which were known to be unacceptable blowing apart any progress at the final instances when a deal appeared imminent. This allowed the Western leaders to tout the new, serious and agreeable turn in the Iranian position only to detour the final stage of negotiations into a dead end and then showing a pique of anger walking out necessitating a complete restart from square one in the negotiations when they were resumed. Now the Iranians have turned a corner in the negotiations where they no longer were negotiating for time and have now negotiated for relief from sanctions and monetary relief as these are the required elements for Iran to make their final push to produce nuclear weapons, and that is exactly what President Obama arranged to happen with this latest agreement.

 

During this past week, Iranian lawmaker, cleric, and member of the Majilis (one of the ruling councils) Mohammed Nabavian declared that Iran does need a nuclear bomb in order to destroy Israel. He further related that Iran would need but “two weeks” if it gets “access to 270 kilograms of 20 percent enriched uranium. This was one of the Red Lines put in place by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as something Israel could not let pass and simply ignore. According to Iranian media Nabavian had stated, “We are not looking for a nuclear bomb, but having a nuclear bomb is necessary to put down Israel.” He then went on to explain how the Iranian leadership had maneuvered President Obama and the Western leaders to a point where they needed Iran more than Iran did them. He used the chasing and calling to beg for an audience with newly elected Iranian President Rouhani by United States President Obama in New York during the opening ceremonies for the United Nations General Assembly to illustrate Obama’s apparent weakness as compared to Iranian strength. After everything he said, the one statement which should stand out was the admission that Iran would require a nuclear weapon in order to destroy Israel. That is tantamount to a declaration of intent to develop nuclear weapons by Iran and should be seen as such. Iran will have attained nuclear weapons status before the six months runs out on the interim agreement. Even should they run into any unsuspected problems, the agreement is written to include a provision which allows for it to be renewed by the two parties should they agree. Renewing the agreement for another six months would probably take less time than would the introductions of the members of the individual delegations attending the meetings to formalize such an extension. This little stated fact provides the real intent of the interim agreement, namely to allow Iran the financial, economic and procurement latitude freed from certain sanctions to produce their nuclear arsenal without any further Western interference. That is why it is highly likely that Iran will have produced at least three to eight deliverable nuclear devices within the six month time period of the agreement and will simply continue to extend the agreement in six month chunks for as long as allowed to get away with that ploy or until the Western nations capitulate completely and free Iran from any restraints in the name of cooperation and peace for our times. Why does that phrase sound so eerily familiar?

 

Beyond the Cusp


June 13, 2012

Iran Nuclear Talks Conducted by the Blind and Deaf

Somewhere a decision was made which placed European Union Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton in the lead for the P5+1 negotiating team who are presumably talking with intent to curb the Iranian nuclear program before they attain nuclear weapons capability. It has been reported that the Iranians have graciously granted the P5+1 mediators another meeting in Moscow in order to discuss the demands regarding nuclear uranium enrichment and the offers to Iran should they comply. This was accomplished after Lady Catherine Ashton held a one-hour phone conversation with Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili where she managed to convince him to allow the meeting. This meeting was originally scheduled during the negotiations in Baghdad last month and was touted as a great achievement as it was the sole accomplishment to result from the meetings. Since then the Iranians, as stated by Ahmadinejad as well as chairman of the Iranian Parliament Ali Larijani, Iran claimed that to continue with the negotiations with the P5+1 was simply assisting the West in wasting time. This is what made it necessary for Lady Ashton to beg for Iran to return to negotiations and resume their meetings as scheduled in Moscow. I am sure this will be touted as a great step and a sign of progress and the seriousness with which Iran is treating the negotiations. Does anybody outside of the governments of the P5+1 honestly believe that any amount of negotiations with Iran will produce any results other than an eventually nuclear armed Iran?

Today there was a report coming out of Iran where the Fars News Agency published a commentary that stated, “The Islamic World should rise up and shout that a nuclear bomb is our right.” Since the Fars News Agency is under the complete control of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, they often are utilized to release trial balloons as a method of releasing official views and judge the reactions before formally having the Supreme Leader the Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei or other high officials announce them as laws or objectives. For some reason I find this statement released by the Fars News Agency to be more than just simply troubling. Stating that the Islamic World needs to fully insist and achieve possession of nuclear weaponry makes the efforts by Lady Ashton to be simply a waste of time. This information should leave the P5+1 with no alternative other than to place a direct challenge demanding Iranian immediate complete compliance. This Fars News Agency statement is nothing short of a direct statement that it truly is a complete waste of time holding negotiations with Iran. It proves beyond any shadow of a doubt that Iran is negotiating simply to talk endlessly and never actually make any progress. Their previous actions have been proving this ever since the entire charade started back in 2006. Despite this being obvious even to the most casual of observers, the P5+1 have chosen the Lady Catherine Ashton to lead the talks. This is the same woman who sounded like a love-struck teenager when describing how enthralled she was and what a magnificent gentleman and accomplished statesman the Iranian head negotiator had appeared to be in her judgment.

As far as the Islamic World having to demand their incontestable right to produce and stockpile nuclear weapons, it is a completely ignorant demand. The Islamic World already possesses and has a stockpile of well over one-hundred nuclear weapons which are located and owned by Pakistan. The truth of their declaration has nothing to do with the Muslim World possessing and having available for Islamic use of nuclear weapons. They are not demanding, or requesting if you wish me to be more polite, for Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Morocco, Egypt, Somalia, Eritrea, Syria (though they might settle for Syria), Sudan or any other Islamic Country to attain nuclear weapons. Their demand is for Iran to be equipped with their own stockpile of nuclear weapons, and not simply a few but sufficient nuclear weapons to intimidate the entire Islamic World into allowing Iran to establish a new Caliphate with Iran as the sole and unchallenged leadership. They want sufficient nuclear weapons for Iran to completely obliterate Israel, the United States, and any other country which they feel is not showing the Iranian leadership sufficient deference. There are those who hold some power within Iran who would even like to have sufficient nuclear weapons to cause a complete and total conflagration throughout the entire globe in order to cause the conditions necessitated to cause the return of the Mahdi, the Twelfth Imam. Yet we still are allowing Iran to talk and talk and make promises that they only intend to break.

Just to add one last example of the fruitlessness of dealing with the Iranians was made evident this week. Over the last few weeks the IAEA has been holding talks in Tehran in order to attempt to coerce Iran into allowing them access to both the known nuclear installations and also to gain access to some military controlled locations where it is suspected that work, research and possible production of nuclear trigger and high explosive shaped charge tests have been conducted which are necessary for both gun and compression style nuclear weapons. Late last week progress was announced and hope was expressed that possibly the clean-up of one of the military locations may not have destroyed all evidence the IAEA sought. Over the past three days Iran has come up with some preconditions and then excuses and finally a total reversal reneging on every agreement the head of the IAEA had announced to great fanfare last Friday. This was announced by The Hindu who wrote “Iran has announced that it is ready to open up its Parchin military facility for inspections by the IAEA.” This has been the exact modus operandi from Iran throughout the entire tortuous, strange, fruitless excuse for serious talks. It has been two steps forward, three steps backwards, install ten more centrifuges. I must honestly congratulate the Iranian negotiators as they have thus far resisted breaking into uncontrolled laughter right into the faces of the negotiators of the P5+1. Such restraint is a rare talent, even if it is being used to conceal through and through deceit.

Beyond the Cusp

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