Beyond the Cusp

July 10, 2018

Preview of Middle East Coming Attractions

 

We open our fictional projection somewhere in the not too distant future with the Mullahs in Iran officially announcing their entrance into the nuclear age and as a full-fledged member of atomic weapons club. They went further with actions to showcase their accomplishments with two detonations. The first detonation was a test in a deep bunkered test facility which they had dug in the southwestern desert region which measures approximately twenty-five kilo-tons. Reactions referred to this blast as being a Hiroshima type atomic weapon and minimized the threat. This reaction was corrected early the next morning when an above ground test was conducted where the Iranians has launched a missile from eastern Iran towards northern Syria near the border with Turkey. This missile struck its target, a Kurdish strongpoint where they were dug in against the Turkish forces. This weapon was a thermonuclear device and was approximated to have been in the twenty to twenty-five megaton yield and was sufficient to complete obliterate the small Kurdish stronghold and the entirety of the city. This has drawn responses from the European signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) filled with ire blaming President Trump for the failure of the agreement solely because he pulled the United States support for the deal. The French, German, British, European Union and United Nations all condemned these events laying all the blame at the front door of the White House in Washington D.C.

 

The new American President, sworn in just hours before these tests were carried out, stood steadfast that the United States was not in approval of the Iranian use of a nuclear device against the Kurdish population and the resultant killing of tens of thousands of civilians. The Iranian Supreme Leader blamed their need to use the weapon on the United States arming the Kurdish forces leading to the stand-off in northern Syria. Also, in reaction to these events, Israel has mobilized half of the IDF reservists and placed the military on an emergency stand-by mode where all reserves are required to carry a phone or be near to a phone with which they could receive any call-ups which may be deemed necessary. The Israeli Knesset called an emergency meeting for this afternoon and the Prime Minister’s emergency cabinet is meeting this morning. The newly crowned King of Saudi Arabia announced his nation’s intention to process uranium and build nuclear weapons as a response to the Iranian threat. Pakistan announced that they had already honored their commitment to Saudi Arabia which they made when the Saudis financed the Pakistani nuclear research and production of their atomic weapons they felt the need to produce in response to India going nuclear. Informed sources tell that Pakistan released six planes which have already landed in three separate Saudi Air Bases each craft carrying two compatible warheads which will fit atop the existing Saudi missiles. Each of the Pakistani devices can be programmed to produce yields from ten to twenty-five megatons. These weapons are being considered a gift from Pakistan and they claim they are now paid in full to the Saudis.

 

The above is a fabrication of what the Middle East could soon have as its appearance. The major situation at that point would be an Iranian-Saudi exchange with Iran figuring their losses would be minimal compared to waiting and having the Saudi produce hundreds of weapons. Nobody would know exactly how many warheads the Iranians would have produced because of the fact that Iran has uranium mines with which to provide their own raw materials for nuclear warhead production (see map below). Iran also has the reactors from which they can produce additional types of weapons fuels. The problem is it is also such a scenario which could become reality next year, next month, next week, later today. This is the reality with which we live with the exception of the Iranians testing their weapon themselves. The Iranian scientists and engineers have been on-board at every nuclear test conducted by North Korea and some have surmised that at least two of these tests were of Iranian design being tested by North Korea as part of their cooperation in nuclear weapons and missile systems. Anyone believing that anything stands between the Iranians building a thermonuclear warhead should immediately disabuse themselves of such thinking. Iran not only had the plans but has probably found the means of either smuggling in the required electronic devices or building them in Iran. The world leaders should not be talking about how to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons and start thinking of how they might contain an already nuclear armed Iran, as that is a far more likely current reality than the lollipop hallucinatory views taken by the Europeans Union, European nations and United Nations. It is far more likely that Iran has fifty to one-hundred thermonuclear devices than it is they do not even have their design for a weapon already completed.

 

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines

 

The world will go on thinking what they want to believe is true and dictatorial regimes with delusions of reestablishing their empires of old and dominating the world scene once again will continue to arm themselves to their teeth and when the real shooting starts, once again Europe will be caught unprepared. The problem is that this time unprepared will equal dead and conquered with many major cities having been turned into smoldering nuclear wastelands uninhabitable for the next twenty to ten-thousand years. The other reality is that the next major war will yield results by the end of two days and the war will be largely over after two days. Whatever nation starts the next conflagration will not survive the first day and will receive a doubling down the second day just for good measure. The countries initially targeted will be in one of two states. Those without adequate anti-missile technology will be the greatest losers with however many missiles sent targeting them will very likely strike their targets. The United States nuclear umbrella is largely a promise to provide a return strike on the culpable nation and not an anti-missile shield. The United States is not adequately protected from the track of Iranian missiles and would have to rely on strategically placed naval assets. Congress has not seen it necessary even to discuss closing the southern gap in the old Soviet Union and Chinese defensive grid which NORAD commands. Those anti-missile defenses are barely functional to intercept many of today’s Russian and Chinese fourth generation missiles and warheads. Add to this the southern gap which reaches in an arc from just north of Los Angeles across the entire southern United States and up the other coast to the central region of the Carolina’s (see map below). These systems protect Canada quite adequately but rely on less proven systems for detection of incoming missiles to cover the southern exposures. This was why both North Korea and Iran have practiced launching polar orbiting spacecraft which approach the United States from the south on numerous passes each day. The Chinese and Russians realized this weakness and had determined the launch angles. It is uncertain which power gave this information to North Korea or Iran.

 

Existing NORAD and Coastal RADAR Shows Southern Open Region Reliant on Over-the-Horizon Systems which Detect Aircraft and Cruise Missiles Better than ICBMs

Existing NORAD and Coastal RADAR Shows Southern Open Region
Reliant on Over-the-Horizon Systems which
Detect Aircraft and Cruise Missiles Better than ICBMs

 

There is one nation which is fairly well prepared if for no other reason than the absolute need and a constant state of threat facing her daily. That nation, of course, is Israel. Israel has developed a multi-stage intercept system where four separate systems each perform in their set range parameters providing maximal coverage. Also, Israel is not a United States, being merely the size of New Jersey, thus Israel can cover all her borders equally as every system can intercept missiles from all directions. Intercept systems placed in the northern Negev cover every border just as well as a system placed just east of Ben Gurion International Airport. The only system requiring strategic placement is the Iron Dome which is not designed for interception of ballistic missiles but for shorter range rockets and missiles and having a very short acquisition time. Still, even the vaunted Iron Dome which has proven its effectiveness with close to a 90% intercept rate when including not firing at systems determined not to be striking vital civilian areas and most likely to strike an open field. Not firing when unnecessary is an important feature as each missile interceptor costs approximately fifty-thousand dollars and are used against fifty dollar rockets. Of course, if it is your house and children who are saved by the Iron Dome, then we all agree that it is well worth the costs. But Israel has a layered series of longer ranged interceptors which include but are not limited to Arrow Systems I, II, and III as well as David’s Sling. Other systems are in the works and remain classified, as do some of the newest deployed systems still being tested. These make sleeping at night much easier. Still, the best deterrence against Iran using nuclear weapons as a threat or in actuality would be regime change and the installing of democratic based governance, the exact system the multitude of demonstrators are hoping they will be granted the opportunity to put in place and work from there. This is something which we might speak of when its coming to fruition is more likely as currently, with the Mullahs possessing all the firearms and the military still supporting them, the demonstrators have little chance for success. At best, they could end up facing a fate similar to that in which Syria is suffering with the Mullahs on one side, MEK (Mujahedeen Khalq) on the other, and the people with hopes separate from both caught in the middle. That would not be helpful or desirable. There would be little difference between the current regime in Iran and any system put in place by the MEK terrorists, as both are simply different forms of radical Islam. The Iranian people desire an opportunity to choose their leaders and have a constitution with a nation operating under laws, not men, and all deserve a system such as this and all too few are permitted to keep such.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 18, 2012

Amendment Establishing Real-World Experience for Politicians

I recently read a very surprising and intriguing article authored by Larry Elder titled ”Recruit George McGovern to Speak — at the Republican Convention!”. The article quoted a number of remarks made by George McGovern in reference to his experiences on his path from purchasing a small hotel and restaurant, the Stratford Inn in Connecticut to the end where the business failed. One quote which stood out made by Mr. McGovern was, “I wish I had known more firsthand about the concerns and problems of American businesspeople while I was a U.S. senator and later a presidential nominee. That knowledge would have made me a better legislator and a more worthy aspirant to the White House.” Reading this and the other McGovern statements quoted in this revealing article I had an epiphany that we should add one more requirement for candidates running for public office, especially at the Federal level. The individual States should decide this for themselves once this expectation has been added which will require a difficult process in order to enact the new requirement, a Constitutional amendment. My thought was we should require for anyone seeking to serve in the House of Representatives have a minimum of five years working in the private sector with at least eighteen months in a supervisory position. In addition, any person seeking a position in the Senate should have eight years working in the private sector and a minimum of three years in a supervisory position. Anybody seeking the Presidency should meet the same requirements as one seeking a seat in the Senate if not something even more stringent. Candidates should also be required to list their work experience by submitting a resume with their entire work history and three work-related recommendations with one each from someone who supervised their work and a person whose work the candidate had supervised. This would serve to give the people who seek to write and form the rules and regulations under which we all must live and operate, especially the small business people, to have had to experience the existing rules and regulations and felt the impingement they have.

The way I see this is that if somebody who was as deep a leftist as George McGovern was able to learn the errors of the positions he once purported and do almost a complete turn-around, then perhaps by forcing candidates to experience some of what had such a transformational effect on McGovern could only serve to provide us with better governance. Yes, I realize that this would not be universally effective, but should it be merely ten percent effective in resetting the thoughts of those eventually seeking public office, then the change to our government and the influences government exerts on business would see a great resulting transformation. As it now sits, we have people serving in Congress, both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and most of those holding important and influential positions in the White House, the President most of all, have absolutely no real world work experience. The vast majority have not done a stitch of work outside of elected office, not even as a bagger, construction worker, pizza delivery person, or even a paper route while growing up, let alone any adult age work experience. Despite not even holding a part time job, these are the very same people who craft the regulations, tax laws, licensing demands, and other heavy influences on the work environment which stifles profit and makes running a small business near to impossible. If even George McGovern can reach a point where he issues a mea-culpa regretting his own actions and decrying the ignorance under which he presumed to craft legislation and voted on same that have such a deep and disturbing influence working against business and the people who must meet these regulations then perchance requiring politicians to have at least a minimum of experience working under the existing shackles before being allowed to craft even more shackles might be a positive move. It is doubtful it could make things any worse. It has come to the front that the main reason that hiring has not responded to any of the presumed recovery which business has supposedly experienced is largely due to uncertainty to the requirements that will be coming from the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act as well as other new regulations as thus far President Obama has presided over the greatest increase in regulations, requirements and new taxes upon business since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. It is no wonder why business and hiring are at a virtual standstill with the Sword of Damocles hanging precariously over their collective heads. What is sad is that without some sanity things will only get worse as it seems like once a piece of legislation has been enacted or a regulation loosed upon our world, that it is impossible for anybody to actually nullify such things and relieve the dooming pressures on business. We need not only politicians who will prevent further legal creep that inhibits business with cumbersome regulations and requirements, but politicians who will remove large amounts of the preexisting oppressive pressures, stifling regulations and murderous taxes off from the business sectors of our society and instead encourage business. I know, such a novel idea that it has no chance of ever occurring. How do we know if we don’t at least call for it and give it a try?

Beyond the Cusp

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