Pay a little attention, President Trump. The State Department has been wrong almost from the very beginning. They advised that the United States follow the European example and pay the protection demands of the Barbary Pirates. President Washington followed their advice and so did President Adams and then came President Jefferson who initially did as the State Department advised and finally, the greatest proponent of isolationism, the man who issued the most ardent Federalist Papers in support of trade with all and ally with none so as to remain free of external entanglements, President Jefferson initiated the first Barbary War ending the demands for tribute and gaining free travel of the sea ways for American ships. In more recent times, the State Department initially advised cooperation with Germany and Italy as well as the French, Russians and British through the 1930’s. After World War II, the State Department advised cooperation and even friendship with the Soviet Union and now they are advising cooperation with Iran and the Arabs over the Kurdish People and are advising the death of Israel with their advice of pursuit of the Two State Solution scenario. We wish to once again add our names and reputations of the people at BTC that the United States takes the first step in the international stage to clearly declare support for the establishing, as stated in the Treaty of Sèvres, a national home for the Kurdish People reestablishing Kurdistan. The Kurdish People lost their homelands at the same time that Israel was conquered by successive empires. In 1948 President Truman went against the advice of the State Department and many other officials and voted for the formation and then recognized the State of Israel, an act which has paid not only the United States, but the world many dividends ever since. Whenever you eat a cherry tomato, think of Israel as they are one of the agricultural ventures from Israel; but we are not here to speak about Israel other than to point out, despite the advice of the swamp led by the State Department, he took the correct actions in 1948 and you have an opportunity to take an almost equally historic action and help with any actions required to assist in the founding of the State of Kurdistan.
Founding the State of Kurdistan need not be a force of war as the Kurdish forces already have their own autonomous regions which the United States was supporting. Listening to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is a mistake as the man is a liar with delusions of being able to reestablish the Ottoman Empire on the dead bodies of the Kurdish People through genocide just as they settled their differences with the Armenians and Greeks. When President Erdoğan told the world his forces were attacking the Islamic State, they were actually engaging the Kurdish forces as part of his personal hatreds and desire to take their lands. Further, President Erdoğan is very likely to ally with Iran, the very force which needs to be prevented from having a corridor from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. Forming the Kurdish State including Kirkuk and Mosul, traditional Kurdish lands, would weaken the Iranian Crescent (pictured below). And while you are undoing the domestic fouls committed by President Obama such as his main success, Obamacare, his over-regulations, weaponizing the EPA and the IRS and a host of other to do items, would it be possible to also undo the worst real-world sin President Obama committed, destroying the Middle East balance giving the key to the region to the Mullahs of Iran. There will be no preventing Iran becoming a nuclear power within your first term but they do not have to be given the entirety of the Middle East through your inaction. The southern half of Iraq is lost as well due to the early removal of United States forces which permitted the Shiites to take revenge for Saddam Hussein and his years of oppression. They took their vengeance on the Sunni center of the nation and are now doing to the Kurds exactly what Saddam had done with military cleansing areas of traditional Kurdish lands of their Kurdish populations. The United States removal of aid and military backing has only encouraged the stealing of Kurdish lands and encouraged President Erdoğan to attack them from the north while oppressing the Kurds in Turkey. Kurdistan would be another steadfast United States ally much like Israel though they would require some assistance initially but once settled and set with borders recognized, they would be able to protect themselves. The main assistance they would require would be training of pilots and a modern air force for them to fly, modern armored vehicles and weaponry after which they would be self-sufficient. Think of this as an investment in a second and more centrally placed aircraft carrier which does not move.
Iranian Crescent Resulting from an Iranian Surge
Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad Connecting
Iran to Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon
There are two main threats building in the world, and for a change, they are not any nation which would have caused fears back last century. Once the United States had removed Saddam Hussein from power, then Iran no longer had their major adversary and saw a potential friend through which they could expand their regional control. The only obstruction Iran faced was the United States forces which were assuring that Iraq remained a stable and open democratic nation and not falling back into sectarian violence. When the United States forces were pulled from Iraq, almost immediately after everything appeared to be in order and peaceful. Soon, almost immediately, after the United States troops were aboard their transports, the Shiite majority turned on their Sunni countrymen. This brought Iranian support to assist their Shiite brothers and secured their central piece of the dreamed of Shiite Crescent. The only necessary requirement for completing their long dreamed of Crescent was the retaining of Syria by Bashir al-Assad, an effort which they had Russian support. The outlook for Syria is that Iran and Assad will soon defeat the remainder of their opposition and return to power. There is another necessity which Iran hopes to include in their area of influence and that is Mosul, the Mosul Hydroelectric Complex and the surrounding oil fields. Traditionally, these would be an area which should be part of Kurdistan and thus by establishing the full region of Kurdistan, the United States would deny Iran one of their desired jewels from the region. Mosul, as well as being host to so many goodies, is also a central hub of major roadways of the northern region (see map below). The Kurds had protected their autonomous zone which included Mosul and Kirkuk and were comfortable and stable until the United States recently announced their pulling of their assistance to the Kurds. Immediately thereafter the Iraqi military assisted by IRGC* forces provided by Iran has pushed the Kurdish forces from the areas south of and in Mosul all the way out of Mosul and northward and appear next to be targeting Kirkuk. This is a repeat of the United States pull out of Iraq under President Obama which resulted in the formation of ISIS. This time it will result in a triumphant Iran taking hegemonic control of the central Middle East from the Indian Ocean through most, possibly all, of Iraq plus Syria and Lebanon.
Mosul Central Road Hub of the North
What harm, as Iran already controls most of this land already, would establishing a small retreat of Kurdistan do to blunt the Iranian hegemony? First, let’s say the United States introduces the Kurdish State and stations two fairly large bases, one an Army and Air Force Base much like many of these type bases in the United States and another one for the Marines including a Marine Air Wing. As Kurdistan would be a landlocked nation, there would be no need for Naval personnel other than a self-supporting Marine Base. This would place United States forces and bases for fast-deployed strike forces in the heart of the Middle East. The existence of Kurdistan would also provide Israel with an ally and potential air base which would allow their pilots to have another place to land in emergencies. Kurdistan would be a check on hegemony by Iran, check Turkey and Erdoğan’s designs on restoring an empire, and provide a real United States ally in which the United States forces would be welcome and not seen as intruders tolerated in order to allow influence as in Yemen and Qatar, both Iranian allies and thus unlikely to remain friendly once Iran decides the entire Middle East is their playground and there is no room for other forces. This will be the day when the United States will be forced from Yemen and Qatar and after which Iran will set upon Saudi Arabia.
We asked not long ago, who would start World War III. We have one scenario which might be exactly how it could start, and it does not include Saudi Arabia. Very possibly Iran might attack Saudi Arabia before World War III actually starts. The United States is close to self-sufficient when it comes to oil, gas and energy production. Russia would not worry about Saudi Arabia falling to Iran as Iran is presumably aligned with them through the Syrian debacle. Further, such an occurrence could only result in a marked increase in the price of a barrel of oil which would make Russia solvent, something they would not be too opposed to if not actually pleased. And Iran is their friend, or so they might believe. But if they are on the same side, why is Russian President Putin seemingly nervous about his friends from Iran? Putin realizes that the Iranians do not view Russia as anything more than a tool in their toolbox, a temporary tool which they will discard when it is no longer serving any purpose. Putin also realizes that his interest in Syria overlaps with the Iranian interest in Syria, specifically, naval bases. Russia needed naval facilities which had access to the Atlantic Ocean and the Syrian Mediterranean Sea which Syria provided. Iran is also seeking naval bases in the Mediterranean Sea. This will lead to an altercation eventually even if Iran was required to instigate said conflict. President Trump is transfixed on North Korea and cannot see the threat posed by Iran. North Korea is not capable of world conquest and makes threats in order to force financial assistance and concessions from other governments, usually targeting the United States mainly. North Korea largely threatens South Korea and secondarily Japan. The main damper on any threats posed by North Korea is not, as President Trump likely believes, the United States but rather is someone much closer, China and Russia. North Korea is almost completely dependent upon China and Russia for their trade, especially China when it comes to North Korean oil. Secondarily they export minerals and other raw materials and limited produced goods including textiles. China has the single most influence upon North Korea, as they are their greatest provider of food such as grains and other vital goods. The United States barely has any trade with North Korea and thus is limited in influence other than threats which Kim Jong-un does not believe are real as he judges the United States from what he observed during the administration of President Obama and the fading red line in Syria and the collapse in negotiating with Iran where the only bullying was against Israel. The United States is a paper military in the eyes of Kim Jong-un and he has complete faith that any posturing by President Trump is all boast and no teeth. This has allowed all his bluster and placing of military assets in the area as empty threats which have all been simply for show and no real threat exists. This has emboldened North Korea and it has only been since the agreeing by China to join in the sanctions that had Kim Jong-un realize that he was facing a serious threat, China working with President Trump.
Meanwhile, Iran has watched President Obama fold before the negotiators, promise Russian President Medvedev of being more flexible after his reelection and both President Obama and Trump pulling out of the Middle East with President Obama pulling out from Iraq gifting the entirety of the nation to the Shiites and Iran with the exception of the Kurdish regions. Now Iran is watching as the United States pulls their support for the Kurds leaving them to fall prey to Iranian and Iraqi Shiite forces pushing them from Northern Iraq while Turkey and Bashir al-Assad are forcing them from northern Syria and Turkey is possibly making plans to remove all Kurds from all lands controlled by Turkey much as the Ottomans removed Armenian Christians from the northern areas of the Ottoman Empire. Iran has watched the United States fold-up camp and leave each area just as the Iranians and their allies of Syria, Iraq and Hezballah have made their initial moves to take each area. The Mullahs can only think that the United States has no stomach for a fight with Iran and thus are concluding that they have a clear road to take whatever they should decide is theirs. This could result in an empowered Iran reaching the decision that there would be no reason for them not to take the Saudi Arabia oil fields as well as the entire western Red Sea shoreline including Mecca and Medina so they can claim to be the real leaders of all Islam and the keepers of the Holy Cities. The appearance of an emboldened Iran building a base within sight of the Golan Heights has raised concerns in Israel. This has Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu speaking with Russian President Putin seeking possible Russian assistance which will likely not make one whit of a difference. Iran could simply take a number of steps too far as they might have misread the reality and push the United States past their tipping point forcing President Trump to take a stand against Iran directly. It might even be Russia who gets pushed by Iran too far setting these former allies at one another’s throats. The future is going to be anything but boring.
Beyond the Cusp
* IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Iranian Special Forces)
Beyond the Cusp 