Beyond the Cusp

March 17, 2016

American Election Discontent Amplified

 

Only in America can there be two Super Tuesday Primary Election Days in under a one month span and only in America can one party elite grumble about the election leader while the other party be so evenly divided yet still have their party elite choosing the eventual candidate. The Republican elite are meeting in an effort to find some means of not only stopping the primary leader thus far but also the runner up as they prefer not to have either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz to be their candidate and their only seeming hope is for neither of these men to manage to achieve a first round win allowing for what is being salivated over, a contested convention where anybody can be shoved down the voters throats which often can result in a brokered candidate which could even see the return of Jeb Bush as the compromise best to lead the drive to the White House. On the Democrat side of the campaign there is a self-confessed and proudly stated socialist promising the stars and the moon with some magical formula catching up and threatening to unseat the chosen one, Hillary Clinton and could conceivably win if he breaks out ahead in such states as California and New York and some select other primaries and the Democrat may be feeling the Bern as in Bernie Sanders without more than at most a dozen of the super delegates. Whatever the combinations which make it to the election this November there will be those pushing that a third party candidate with potentially one or both party elites backing such a run as they find the candidate produced by the primaries completely untenable. Such a move or any use of political chicanery denying the obvious voter preference will result in the other party winning the White House almost by default.

 

The campaign has some ugly events which fault has been assigned dependent on the politics of the reporting news reporters. The reality is that these confrontations were pushed by people opposed to the candidate who was either appearing or had been scheduled but forced by threats or under advice from the schedulers who decided that such an appearance could only inflame things more. What is of interest is that there have been such disruptions at other candidate appearances but the news reports have concentrated on one candidate solely simply because the news elite from all sides also have an apparent displeasure with the particular candidate. The slants of the news and party elites are an ugliness which is quite uncomely and may only grow more dire and vicious. The rest of the campaigning and commentary leading to the conventions will continue to become heated to the point of boiling over until, or will it be if, a candidate secures the nomination through the primary process or by a combined primary delegates and super delegates. So, let’s actually look briefly at each party.

 

First we’ll cover the easier one, the Democrat primaries. Hillary Clinton has wrapped up the vast majority of the super delegates which equates to approximately one third of the required delegates to win the nomination. This gave her a commanding lead even before the first primary was held and a single vote had been cast. She has been winning but by ever narrowing margins with some of the largest states still ahead. Bernie “Feel the Bern” Sanders, if we remember back six months, entered into the race at three percent in polls. He has slowly gained ground and should his popularity gain the slimmest margin and Hillary could watch the nomination slip away from her once again. Such a devastating loss would be the end of Hillary Clinton’s political ambitions. It might also make the investigations into her possible wrongdoing while Secretary of State with her mail server and other questionable favor dealing for contributions to the Clinton Foundation. Obviously it would be more embarrassing and potentially more difficult to indict for any of her actions while she was also the Democrat candidate for the Presidency and even more difficult if she wins the White House. It would be strange for her to pardon herself from any wrongdoing as President while it is still possible that President Obama could pardon or otherwise immunize Hillary Clinton freeing her from all charges clearing her from any responsibility. Still, Hillary Clinton most likely will emerge as the Democrat candidate and it remains to see whether she will find an easy path to the White House or a real challenge from a Republican candidate.

 

The Republican nomination is going to be potentially very ugly and that is without any acrimony from their ongoing contests. The media and many of the elite political commentators are running a steady stream of trumped up controversy which is actually quite appropriate as the candidate all the trumped controversy is centered on is in Donald Trump. When they are not trumping Trump they are hoping the party does not find itself running on Cruz control. Sorry, I am not quite capable of doing anything cutesy with John Kasich. The dissatisfaction with politics as usual is apparent in copious amounts on both sides of the populace but has really found a home on the Republican side of the fence. The oddity is that there are two candidates on the Republican side who are anti-establishment and they are the two contesting for the nomination. They could make a deal and keep it private, like that is possible in politics these days, promising to assign their delegates to the other whichever one has the lesser amount in exchange for being either in a choice cabinet spot or better be the running mate on the ticket which would place them in a promising position to be the next candidate after eight years whether the President won reelection of not. This is going to continue to grow more and more acrimonious leading to a great relief once the nomination is secured, assuming it would be secured before the convention. Should the nominating process in Cleveland at the Republican Convention go past the second or third round there will be a greater and greater potential for some chicanery pulled to short-shrift the expression of the voters in the primary voting.

 

 

First Republican President After Split From Whig Party was Abraham Lincoln

First Republican President After Split
From Whig Party was Abraham Lincoln

 

There will be near constant critiques and outlandish claims of the elites of either party should their preferred candidate not be proceeding to the nomination resorting to backing a third party or independent candidate which they would use their connections and arrange to place such onto every state ballot is nothing other than making controversy and out of the box and bordering preposterous scenarios simply to press ratings. Both parties will acquiesce to any winner as attempting to defeat their own party’s nominee would be political suicide and a step towards the dissolution of the party and the formation of a new party similar as when the Whig Party refused to side against slavery thus forcing a splinter group to break and form their own party. That party made a theretofore unheard of accomplishment, namely getting their Presidential candidate elected and thus the Whig Party died and the Republican Party gained respectability and has held together through serious challenges before and will likely survive the Trump trumping the party elitists. The elites can disagree with the will of the voters until it is made obvious that taking any other path other than backing the populist candidate and unify in order to reach the real goal that party desires, their man in the White House and not the other party’s candidate. So, enjoy the fireworks for as long as they last and then be amazed as the entirety of each party suddenly become unified and supportive, silent at worst, as the White House and the powers which go with having a friendly rather than adversarial President to work with your people in the congress and the governors and others of the party. Both parties desire the gold ring and will do whatever it takes to grab that ring and the path is going with the people, with the electorate and there is no other path as that is the method in a democratic republic form of governance. Let the games continue.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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March 2, 2016

Super Tuesday Results with Maps

 

We are going to hear much about the Republican race being between Trump and Rubio trying to minimize Cruz as the Republican Party can only beat Trump if they can put every last non-Trump Vote to one candidate even if it was a more popular Donald, that being Donald Duck. Cruz and Rubio are going to continue to split the voters leaving Trump slowly eclipsing them both right out of the delegate count, especially as the winner take all states start appearing rather than the proportional representation they are facing now. The results in the Republican primaries will not change the fight but simply serve to fortify the three man race plus Kasich will claim he has not been ruled out and he will come roaring back once he wins Ohio which is becoming more unlikely as the delegates are divided up and him just missing threshold after threshold. But the Republicans will continue as advertised but the Democrats the fat lady may be singing.

 

Probably the stake through the heart of the Sanders campaign was losing Massachusetts as well as every other state looking being eclipsed in the eye. Bernie Sanders may as well thank his supporters and workers for their faith and hope in him and recognize that H for Hillary Clinton the new President Operfectillary has won the nomination with little if any potential for doubt. So, now H for Hillary Clinton the new President Operfectillary can campaign on a low keyed style taking extra care to not say anything which might be used against her in the general elections. All H for Hillary Clinton the new President Operfectillary need do is keep her mainstay base of minorities to remain committed and have a level of excitement to produce them at the polls in November. She can float trial balloons testing how they play with the public. Bernie Sanders cannot claim to have any hope when the only states won so far are New Hampshire, Vermont, and Oklahoma while losing Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. These were the results in the early states and the projections look very much like same as above with H for Hillary Clinton the new President Operfectillary winning and winning. We could go with so many ways of trivializing the results claiming the fat lady is singing, turn out the lights the party’s over, or put a fork in him, he’s done. So, what is next for H for Hillary Clinton the new President Operfectillary?

 

The questions now will revolve around who will H for Hillary Clinton the new President Operfectillary choose as her running mate, her Secretary of State, her this, that and the other. That will be the news cycle over and over as they try to keep H for Hillary Clinton the new President Operfectillary in the news reminding everybody how popular H for Hillary Clinton the new President Operfectillary is with so many different demographics making it appear so clear that she will win the all-important elections come November. They will mostly avoid those death subjects such as her e-mail server, her mishandling of top secret and more secure information, Benghazi, telling lies to bereaved parents about why their children gave their lives, and every other scandal she hides from the public with the complicity of the mainstream media. This election may hinge on whether or not H for Hillary Clinton the new President Operfectillary will be indicted which may remain hanging over her head with many claiming the election is also about whether or not H for Hillary Clinton the new President Operfectillary wins and avoids a messy trial dominating every new hour. The Democrat Party now has the luxury of knowing who their candidate will be for the election in November. This can also be a downside as they will face the challenge of keeping their candidate in each news cycle in a positive light avoiding the obvious sinkholes.

 

 

Primary Results of Super Tuesday Maps

Primary Results of Super Tuesday Maps

 

What did Super Tuesday do to the two parties can be summarized in two words, H for Hillary Clinton the new President Operfectillary and Trump. That will most likely be the candidates the American public will have to choose between. This may be a more interesting race than the pundits might believe as both parties will be facing a single challenge of getting out their voters. Both candidates will necessarily need to announce their preferred appointments to the major cabinet posts such as to define them beyond their own persona of simply thirsting for power. This election will necessarily be a referendum on which of the far from perfect candidates, Trump and H for Hillary Clinton the new President Operfectillary, will be capable of bringing forth the votes while leaving the base for the other side from awakening. If history is any measure, H for Hillary Clinton the new President Operfectillary would be more likely to manage such a feat as the Democrats have traditionally been better able of getting their voters to the polls and pulling out the close races but that will be made more difficult with their having a wounded candidate in H for Hillary Clinton the new President Operfectillary just as the Republicans apparently will also have apparently an injured and bloodied candidate in Donald Trump as he will have challengers continuing through the remainder of the primaries until he freezes all others out in the delegate count. Let the games begin.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 7, 2012

Super Tuesday and My Opinion for What it’s Worth

We are looking at a night where the presumed authorities all said that the only primary which counted was Ohio as all the others were preordained by early predictions. So, what does the virtual tie which will split the delegates almost right down the middle mean in the long look at the race? We learned that you can buy a victory, something I am personally very familiar with from my one dip in the wading pool of national politics. My third party candidacy for the House of Representatives, the one in Washington DC, I lost in the vote count but won if you determined number of votes per dollar spent on the campaign. My friends tell me even getting on the ballot was a victory which is more comforting today than back then. But after comparing that my two opponents spent a combined amount in excess of $5,000,000.00 against my huge outlay of $33,000 you find my spending was a less than 0.75% of what was spent. Somehow I received just over 3% of the vote, kind of embarrassing but I can still claim to have gotten more votes for my dollar. Granted, Mitt Romney is outspending Rick Santorum and the rest of the candidates by somewhat less than my opponents outspent my campaign, but over 10 to 1 is a significant difference for such a minor victory. Romney does not have much to crow about.

 

The real story so far in this primary campaign season has been the coverage of the race more than the races themselves and the trial of using proportional representation in many states in assigning their delegates. The proportional delegate assignments is going to be a real plus should this be continued as it will force closer races to actually be represented as such instead of the race being done on super Tuesday. Tonight the talking heads are trying to make the slight Romney win as a sign of the end of the race making him the odds on favorite if not already nominated Republican candidate. The delegate count is nowhere near at a point where anybody is even within sight of the needed count to win the nomination on the first ballot. Yet, I keep listening to these talking heads telling me to go to bed and not bother with the election until November. The only thing I can relate is it is not over and the fat lady has not even been out on the stage as of yet. Should Romney continue and actually win the nomination solely dependent on his deep pockets and disproportional spending and still only manage squeakers splitting the delegates almost sown the middle, how can he expect to beat President Obama who will easily outspend the Republican candidate similarly to Romney’s primary strategy. Considering the investment one would expect Mitt Romney to easily be winning 65% or even 75% of the votes and thus winning entire delegate counts from these states, not sharing evenly with a candidate that was all but unheard from just a few weeks ago. The talk at the front end of these primaries generated questions as to why Rick Santorum had not simply taken the hint and gone home, yet now we are discussing Rick Santorum as making a race out of these primaries and there may still be a few more surprises in store for the talking heads. Much may depend on whether or not Newt Gingrich continues on through to the very end. To be fair, the other way to stop Mitt Romney might be for Santorum to drop out giving his delegates to Newt Gingrich, or they could both drop out and give their delegates to Ron Paul. I think we all know that Ron Paul is in the race to the very bitter end. My hope is that the race soon becomes a three candidate race though I will not hold my breath.

 

The most important singular item is the proportional assignment of delegates which is going to prolong this race well beyond this week. Without this change we would not even be discussing the Republican primaries as it really would be just about all over. By going to a more representative delegate system the Republicans have very likely stretch out the campaign and will thus achieve exactly what was the aim, more people having their say count and the race going much deeper into the primaries. The talk about a bartered Republican Convention was all the talk early on and predicted to be a definite possibility. This prediction was assessed back before even the Iowa caucuses and has proven to have been a premature fear that is no longer likely. The assignment of delegates has run fairly even between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum with Newt Gingrich holding a small share of delegates. Well, guess now all we can do is wait and watch. With any luck it will continue to be, if nothing else, informative and anything but boring. So far it has been anything but predictable as we have watched a parade in which we went through every candidate as the non-Romney and only time will tell if any more grand changes in the tides of battle are in the future.

 

The last item from Super Tuesday came from the caucus in North Dakota. Mitt Romney was predicted to take that caucus by many due to his greater sized organization. Something went horribly wrong according to the reports I heard and Rick Santorum was chosen in the North Dakota caucus. The race continues and sooner or later we will know who will be chosen to be the Republican candidate to run against President Obama this fall. The final win count for Super Tuesday was Romney with 5, Santorum with 3, and Gingrich with 1. As close as those numbers are, the delegate counts will, once all has settled out and been computed, be even closer between the two leaders, Santorum and Romney. At least it has not been a clean sweep as last primary cycle otherwise I would have one less subject to write about.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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